Diary of a swing spread better

[chindl]

Again not a problem - depends on trade length. For EOD, which is my bread and butter trading, I would say it's 50/50. If the technicals turn or become too oversold/bought then I will likely scale out or exit completely, depending on the strength of the trend still in place, being that the stronger the trend the more likely I will scale out hoping to take some more rather than get out completely. I will also look for divergence between the fast MACD line and the price, that also gives an indication on potential get out points.
On the daily dow strategy that I have been doing recently on here I will tend to use the advice as offered in Chartman's informative work - link posted earlier. Longer term trading of say hourly charts I used to use the Bollinger Bands, ADX, Stochs and MACD for entries and exits. Unfortunately, I'm no longer able to get that close to the market in the day, as my employer have placed a proxy block on Caps website, probably due to the overuse of the word betting, and no other charting firm gets through, so I'm stuck to either EOD completely or trading the dow from ADVFN and currencies from NetDania charts, hence my recent emergence on this thread.
Oh, one final thing, fundamentals can still play a part. I try not to be positioned at the point of a big news release such as the FOMC meeting and the subsequent mins, NFP, which is tomorrow at 1230BST, or the crop reports on grain futures. The only exception would be if holding a profit margin significant enough to ensure the huge whipsaws do not stop you out. Just watch the currencies at 1230 tomm and you will see what I mean, it can move back and forthe some 150 pip range in a matter of seconds, and the SB's will never fill you because of that, rightly so really given the noise. However, after the event it is possible to position carefully and ride a significant trend like a surfer rides a wave.

Hope this is of use.
Chris

 

[Splitlink]

Why do traders use a 49 day average instead of 50 days, or a 21 insread of 20? Is it because it is easier to select the exact middle of the average? If so, does this matter?

Split

 

[Splitlink]

Are there likely to be any spikes today and, it so, will they signify a resumption of the downtrend.?

Sorry to be in such an interrogative mood this morning but these questions are running through my mind..

Any resumption of the bull run, this morning, and I intend to move my stop to last night's close. I am optimistic, considering the strength of Dow and Ftse, of a good run this morning, but it may fade for the weekend. In any case, the markets are pushing against very strong down averages.

Jilly, I'm not sure what you did on the Dow, yesterday, except that you intended buy at around 11160. I hope you had a great day. I need a week in Teneriffe.....

Split

 

[chindl]

Non Farm Payrolls should make the pre market and opening hour interesting for indices and currencies.
Split - I use a 49 MA purely because it is what is on thr SMR charts as the trend line and I work EOD of SMR charts, as per Chick Goslin's methods in Trading Day by Day. No other reason..
Chris

 

[chindl]

Oh, and some traders use a 21/22 average, as that is the average number of days in a month!!!

 

[Vaco]

Any upward move today will encounter heavy resistance at the 11300, if the dow closes above this level today I'll be a very happy man :cheesy:

 

[Splitlink]

Closed BARC at 623.4. +29.3 points since Wednesday. Will probably be sorry but I'm looking to short something today.

Split

 

[JillyB]

Any upward move today will encounter heavy resistance at the 11300, if the dow closes above this level today I'll be a very happy man :cheesy:

I agree there is heavy resistance in the 11,300-350 area. Personally I'm not expecting it to break through this, but to fall back down again to the 11,100 area. If this line of support holds, then this will confirm there is still bullish sentiment in the market and we should then see the index push above 11,350 and reach the 11,600 region where it was a few weeks ago.

 

[JillyB]

Are there likely to be any spikes today and, it so, will they signify a resumption of the downtrend.?

Sorry to be in such an interrogative mood this morning but these questions are running through my mind..

Any resumption of the bull run, this morning, and I intend to move my stop to last night's close. I am optimistic, considering the strength of Dow and Ftse, of a good run this morning, but it may fade for the weekend. In any case, the markets are pushing against very strong down averages.

Jilly, I'm not sure what you did on the Dow, yesterday, except that you intended buy at around 11160. I hope you had a great day. I need a week in Teneriffe.....

Split

Hi Split,

Yes the Dow went very well yesterday, I've detailed it in my journal, but in brief - the trades that my Trading Plan gave me were, as you mentioned, BUY at the open to the high of yesterday at 11,179 and on to the region of 11,189-99. I put a stop in a 11,189 once it had reached there and the stop was triggered on the next candle.

The second part of the trade was a SELL from that level back down to the open at 11,159, which also happened, making me a nice profit and all finished by 3.10pm

 

[Chorlton]

Non Farm Payrolls should make the pre market and opening hour interesting for indices and currencies.
Split - I use a 49 MA purely because it is what is on thr SMR charts as the trend line and I work EOD of SMR charts, as per Chick Goslin's methods in Trading Day by Day. No other reason..
Chris

Chris,

Sorry for all the questions but everytime you answer one specific question, this leads to another one - or two!!!

You mentioned that you trade Chick Goslins Methods in his book Trading Day to Day. Consequently, can I ask a couple of questions:

i) What instruments do you trade using his methods?

ii) Do you follow his methods exactly or have you modified / refined them to suit your own trading style?

iii) Do you find his methods offer good results? I'm assuming that as you still trade his methods, that the answer is probably yes to this one though

iv) Any further observations from trading his methods?

The reason I ask is that I too have read the book but personally have had mixed experiences with his method, especially with regards to good timing for entry & exit. I have been trading stocks though so I'm not sure whether this has any relevance.

Any advice, as always, much appreciated.

Chorlton

 

[Vaco]

I agree there is heavy resistance in the 11,300-350 area. Personally I'm not expecting it to break through this, but to fall back down again to the 11,100 area. If this line of support holds, then this will confirm there is still bullish sentiment in the market and we should then see the index push above 11,350 and reach the 11,600 region where it was a few weeks ago.

I dont expect it to break through the 11350 mark before a drop either, however with the dow rallying yesterday and today being friday i'm expecting another move up to finnish the day off between 11300-11350, which will then represent a great shorting opportunity next week as the dow drops back to 11100,

If we close above 11300 i'll be putting in a stop+short trade at somewhere below 11300.

Happy Trading

 

[chindl]

Chorlton - I'll PM you at some point to answer your queries, as I do not want to take the thread off topic.
Quite a busy day today with work though so will do so as soon as I get time.
All the best
Chris

 

[chindl]

My turn to ask a question to anyone trading the Dow intraday- does anyone use pivots and camarilla points for S&R when trading the Dow intraday? Would be interested to see whether anyone has had any success with this method and whether it applies well, as it seems to do in the currencies.
Chris

 

[Vaco]

My turn to ask a question to anyone trading the Dow intraday- does anyone use pivots and camarilla points for S&R when trading the Dow intraday? Would be interested to see whether anyone has had any success with this method and whether it applies well, as it seems to do in the currencies.
Chris

I use pivots chris just not for intraday as work does not permit, used to use camarilla pivot points as well when i did have the time intraday sadly i was not as disciplined a trader back then so it did not work out for me however the points did work well on the dow, now i just use the pivot points indicater that comes with my charting package (pro charts via cmc) works just as well and saves me £100 per month. :cheesy:

 

[Splitlink]

Shorted HNS at 665.8.

Split

 

[chindl]

Thanks Elefteros - I assume then that you use a weekly pivot, or have I got that wrong and you still use the daily pivots to identify the days S&R for the coming day?

 

[JillyB]

My turn to ask a question to anyone trading the Dow intraday- does anyone use pivots and camarilla points for S&R when trading the Dow intraday? Would be interested to see whether anyone has had any success with this method and whether it applies well, as it seems to do in the currencies.
Chris

Hi Chris,

I have the pivot points switched on, on a 5 min chart, but they're only there as a guide. I don't trade by them. I do find that they coincide a lot with targets that my Trading Plan gives me, so this does make me more confident with the projected target then. I don't use camarilla points - they're not on the software I have.

 

[Vaco]

Thanks Elefteros - I assume then that you use a weekly pivot, or have I got that wrong and you still use the daily pivots to identify the days S&R for the coming day?

I use both, the weekly is used to tighten up my stop and the daily for opportunities to add to my position. Half my position is in for the longer run and the other half for my quick 1 day gainers.

I then use bolinger bands to decide which direction i should be more biased towards in my trades.

At the moment i'm biased towards being long as were due to hit the top bb before we hit the bottom one again, however when the dow is ranging this wildly the pivot points give me more opportunities to trade.

 

[chindl]

Thanks Jilly and Elefteros - amazing how the market tends to turn on the cams and pivots isn't it?
Some strong bullish movement in the Euro session on the metals, Copper up some 1200 at the moment and Silver up $20+, Gold lagging both, so possibly an opportunity there, since Silver tends to lead precious metals.. Currencies sideways, as would expect just before NFP.. Just wish I could trade Gold, but work prevents me taking the effort to take a proper view, cos they expect me to do some, can you believe that?
Chris

 

[Chorlton]

Chorlton - I'll PM you at some point to answer your queries, as I do not want to take the thread off topic.
Quite a busy day today with work though so will do so as soon as I get time.
All the best
Chris

Thanks Chris........

No need to rush with a reply, as I know what its like to have to do actual "work"

I'm just glad you're able to offer some guidence & advice.

Happy Trading........

Chorlton