FTSE running into a wall
The FTSE is facing strong resistance at around 6050. Looking at the chart, it may be vulnerable for a corrective phase. The last up trend before correction ran from early May till end of September - 5 months. October saw the drop of around 400 points then the up trend picked up again from early November until now - almost 5 months. What's going to happen next is anyone's guess but I stay prepared if a correction happens.
The FTSE is facing strong resistance at around 6050. Looking at the chart, it may be vulnerable for a corrective phase. The last up trend before correction ran from early May till end of September - 5 months. October saw the drop of around 400 points then the up trend picked up again from early November until now - almost 5 months. What's going to happen next is anyone's guess but I stay prepared if a correction happens.
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CMC lowered their LSE June quote from around 1140-1145 to just 940-945 in the last 12 hours while the cash price dropped by just around 20 to 1120-1125.
It looks like the recent gap in LSE's share price may be filled. And it's a big gap but I have no experience playing this, so I'll see how it goes.
It looks like the recent gap in LSE's share price may be filled. And it's a big gap but I have no experience playing this, so I'll see how it goes.
Attachments
To swing traders
I just noticed that this thread has been viewed more than 10,000 times and wonder how many swing traders frequently come to this thread.
If you're a swing trader who follows Marc Rivalland's method, let's join efforts in research!
If we have four people, each can monitor and do analysis on five stocks to identify long and short opportunities then post them here.
Marc's method is very powerfull when market is trending up/down (higher highs and higher lows/lower highs and lower lows). When in an up trend, buy when the price has dropped for three consecutive days from a recent high and the opposite applied in a down trend.
He also uses 14 day RSI to gauge overbought (over 80) and oversold (under 20) and MA to support buying and selling decision. A buy decision should only be made when short term MA's slope is still upward.
I guess many people trade and work like myself and the more we can share, the better. I don't think I can monitor any more than five stocks effectively. But now I have about 20 in my watch list.
Good trading to all,
Hung
I just noticed that this thread has been viewed more than 10,000 times and wonder how many swing traders frequently come to this thread.
If you're a swing trader who follows Marc Rivalland's method, let's join efforts in research!
If we have four people, each can monitor and do analysis on five stocks to identify long and short opportunities then post them here.
Marc's method is very powerfull when market is trending up/down (higher highs and higher lows/lower highs and lower lows). When in an up trend, buy when the price has dropped for three consecutive days from a recent high and the opposite applied in a down trend.
He also uses 14 day RSI to gauge overbought (over 80) and oversold (under 20) and MA to support buying and selling decision. A buy decision should only be made when short term MA's slope is still upward.
I guess many people trade and work like myself and the more we can share, the better. I don't think I can monitor any more than five stocks effectively. But now I have about 20 in my watch list.
Good trading to all,
Hung
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hungvir said:
Hi hung
congrats on starting a popular thread hung you are second only to the mighty cap spreads thread in the spread betting forum
most good threads die young but i feel this one has legs
havn't followed marc Rivalland's work as yet will check him out
have a good day
Don
hungvir said:
You were lucky not to get filled there, all right! One of the reasons I prefer rolling bets and not the futures is that I can't figure out what is bias and what is time value. The difference that you quote between the two, cash and June, is an example of what I mean.
Split
don_h said:Hi hung
congrats on starting a popular thread hung you are second only to the mighty cap spreads thread in the spread betting forum
most good threads die young but i feel this one has legs
havn't followed marc Rivalland's work as yet will check him out
have a good day
Don
Thank you, Don.
I am so glad that I've met some lovely people here. Marc Rivalland's book is one of the best trading books in my opinion. The only missing thing in the book is what to do in a trading range.
By the way, I quite like the green/red signal on one of the charts you posted here. Would you mind explaining what it is and how it can help you with making decisions.
Thanks a lot,
Hung
Splitlink said:
Hi Split,
What I don't like about rolling contracts is that if the market does not go your way immediately, the SB firms will take money out of your account at the end of the day. For future contracts, it's not the case. Paper loss will be shown but it won't be realised.
My stop buy orders are always placed at a price that is higher than the most recent high. If the stock does not go up, I won't get filled. But I was very lucky yesterday as well. Even if the stock had gone up, it would not have affected the future price one iota. That was another 200 pounds saved
Good trading,
Hung
hi hungvir -
I have just seen you post from earlier today re Marc Rivalland's swing trading technique. I'm a great admirer of this simple strategy. But I have only been using it (though quite intensively) with the FTSE100 index, occasionally the Dow and once or twice the Dax. Its an easy to follow method in real time, and that is the best test. However, my backtesting has always produced far better results than my real time swing trading using this technique, which is only modeslty profitable. I have found that (1) I get a lot of false signals from the FTSE and get stopped out far too often and (2) I always close profitable positions too early.
For (1) perhaps I should move on to other instruments, like shares: for (2) I just don't know at this moment but very glad to steal any ideas you want to share as trades go along.
I have just seen you post from earlier today re Marc Rivalland's swing trading technique. I'm a great admirer of this simple strategy. But I have only been using it (though quite intensively) with the FTSE100 index, occasionally the Dow and once or twice the Dax. Its an easy to follow method in real time, and that is the best test. However, my backtesting has always produced far better results than my real time swing trading using this technique, which is only modeslty profitable. I have found that (1) I get a lot of false signals from the FTSE and get stopped out far too often and (2) I always close profitable positions too early.
For (1) perhaps I should move on to other instruments, like shares: for (2) I just don't know at this moment but very glad to steal any ideas you want to share as trades go along.
hungvir said:
I have to qualify that buy order in an up trend is placed just above the last day's high and if there's one day interruption in the three day drop rules that's alright as well.
If anyone here new to spreadbetting and charting, I am more than willing to share what I know. You can post your questions here or pm me.
Best,
Hung
tomorton said:
Hi Tomorton,
Have you tried Sharescope's swing charting package developed based on Marc's strategy?! I haven't but I assume it should be quite good.
Looking at the FTSE and the DOW's charts, if we'd been end of day traders we would have made quite a lot of money. Intraday signals might be a bit treacherous.
More later,
Hung
hi hungvir -
Yes, the Sharescope swing charts are easy to read and use once you've re-set the colour scheme to match Marc's.
I agree with your point that we should all be rich but I need to figure out why I'm not. One thing - I keep getting suckered into "obvious" day-trades... and losing most times. More discipline needed methinks.
Tom
Yes, the Sharescope swing charts are easy to read and use once you've re-set the colour scheme to match Marc's.
I agree with your point that we should all be rich but I need to figure out why I'm not. One thing - I keep getting suckered into "obvious" day-trades... and losing most times. More discipline needed methinks.
Tom
tomorton said:
The same story here, Tom.
When I day trade, I tend to deviate a bit from the principles. And you nail it there - discipline. That was what made Marc a success and us a 'not yet'. If you follow his method in details and be ruthless with non-performing trades, then you'll be fine. Day trades for me are just experiments at the moment.
Good trading,
Hung
'Bracing for a fall?'
From money.cnn.com
Profiting in the expected stock market storm
Stocks could take a big hit this summer but that may set the stage for a powerful rally. What should your next move be?
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
March 28, 2006: 12:51 PM EST
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - If history is any guide, the stock market's in for a rough ride the next six months -- but then a powerful rally could very well follow. http://money.cnn.com/2006/03/28/markets/markets_bearbull/index.htm
And indeed the Dow just fell more than 125 points.
http://money.cnn.com/2006/03/28/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm
I am in no mood to go long now.
From money.cnn.com
Profiting in the expected stock market storm
Stocks could take a big hit this summer but that may set the stage for a powerful rally. What should your next move be?
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
March 28, 2006: 12:51 PM EST
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - If history is any guide, the stock market's in for a rough ride the next six months -- but then a powerful rally could very well follow. http://money.cnn.com/2006/03/28/markets/markets_bearbull/index.htm
And indeed the Dow just fell more than 125 points.
http://money.cnn.com/2006/03/28/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm
I am in no mood to go long now.
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