Darwinia contest

[CavaliereVerde]

It is too early to estimate the earnings from Darwinia, you have to wait until day 5.
My highest earning for KVL back in 2018 was paid on Day 5.
That amount - 3006k of the end of February will be very close to the Darwinia payout.
Since the reduction because of equity multipliers the amount is always close to 20k.

 

[CavaliereVerde]

It is too early to estimate the earnings from Darwinia, you have to wait until day 5.
My highest earning for KVL back in 2018 was paid on Day 5.

I was waiting til the afternoon because some of my prizes were processed in the afternoon, while allocation is always assigned in the morning.

It seems I was right
3026k - 3006k = 20k mostly due to Darwinia.

 

[Gargamel]

Given it is Friday evening,5.day in new month,all fees are already 'in the bank'.
Good estimate for Darwinia!If we take 20k as all coming from darwinia fees(15% fee),that brings us to 133k profits on all allocations for Darwinia due for Quarterly payout.Do you have some estimate how much allocation was in the play?That would be worth 2 months of allocation if I understand it right-one monthly allocation reaching end of first Quarter and another monthly allocation reaching it's second Quarter end.

 

[CavaliereVerde]

I summed the real allocation for some months at the beginning of the equity limitation.
The real allocation is always close to 50% of the maximal so there are 22 millions of demo money distributed on 200-300 darwins.

 

[Gargamel]

That would calculate as 1,7-1,8% Quarterly profit for allocations under new D-score regime.Not bad.Maybe darwinex found their 'working' DWEX with this:7% per year without leverage and great diversification?

EDIT:I summed up darwinia allocations for November batch(they just ended their first Quarter and got their first fees)- 5.322 Mil was total allocation.71% of theoretical max. allocation.
If they made half of 133k profits:that would translate into 1,25% Quarterly profit and 5,0% yearly profit.

 

[CavaliereVerde]

The fact that they pay a performance fee does not mean the "portfolio" makes money.
Just like private investors they pay the few performers (that can be a small tail of lucky monkeys) but lose overall.
As investor I always paid ~3% of the allocated portfolio capital as performace fee, even in losing years.
Darwinia portfolio is not a working DWEX and I don't think they have one.

 

[Gargamel]

Darwinia portfolio is not a working DWEX and I don't think they have one.

Yeah,I wasn't thinking about losses .Anyway it is too early to estimate results of big changes during 2020 on Darwinia performance.The last changes became operational with October 2020 Darwinia...

 

[CavaliereVerde]

I summed up darwinia allocations for November batch(they just ended their first Quarter and got their first fees)- 5.322 Mil was total allocation.71% of theoretical max. allocation.

I summed up february 2021 and they allocated 4925k/7500k so 65%
Let's consider they are allocating 70% on average, it is 30 millions.
Highly diversified portfolios lose on average 1% per month (very low risk losing )
They would lose 300k per month if it were real money, paying 20k makes much more sense.
Let's go to real earnings for them: management fees.
The total real AUM from investors is at least 30 millions, so it is 360k revenue per year and they spend 240k per year to pay Darwinia performers.
I think trading makes sense and alpha exists but this business model would work even with no alpha at all, efficent market and 100% random monkeys.

 

[Gargamel]

I think trading makes sense and alpha exists but this business model would work even with no alpha at all, efficent market and 100% random monkeys.

Addendum,from Trader's side:very few darwins (at the moment less than 10% of active darwins and there are accounts without darwins also and closed darwins every month), make it to 60 d-score and 40% rebates and become reasonably attractive for investors and competitive in darwinia. All the rest are paying nice commissions.

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

It seems I was right
3026k - 3006k = 20k mostly due to Darwinia.

Sorry, the 3006K were from last weekend, on Tuesday evening there were 3015k total performance paid (see screenshot, copied from above).

I assume they pay much less than 20k in the majority of all months, at least with the VaR cutting alpha stuff.

I did not look at the hall of fame yesterday, but are you sure DarwinIA payout is added until now?

 

[CavaliereVerde]

3026-3006 is the right calculation.
3006 was the end of February, you posted Sunday but it was the same from Friday evening...
I have been paid several times by Darwinia, on average pay-day is the 3rd but sometimes we can arrive to 5th .
The allocation come on the first working day of the month and often weekend is involved.
The worst case scenario is that you are allocated in day 3 and after a quarter day 3 is saturday so you have another delay to day 5. So Darwinia payments are processed from 1 to 5.
You will notice that the earnings for the rest of the month will be lower than these first 5 days.

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

3026-3006 is the right calculation.
3006 was the end of February, you posted Sunday bat it was the same from Friday evening...
I have been paid several times by Darwinia, on average pay-day is the 3rd but sometimes we can arrive to 5th .
The allocation come on the first working day of the month and often weekend is involved.
The worst case scenario is that you are allocated in day 3 and after a quarter day 3 is saturday so you have another delay to day 5. So Darwinia paymentsa are processed fro 1 to 5.
You will notice that the earnings for the rest of the month will be lower than these first 5 days.

Can't get your payment calculation, sorry.
If there were 3015k visible on Tuesday as documented in my screenshot from Tuesday evening - when did they pay?
Monday night: 3015 -3006 = 9k ?
Thursday night: 3026 - 3015 = 11k ?
Or is it split on these 5 days together with investor fees so one trader gets it on Tuesday and the other one on Thursday?
Or is the payment made on this upcoming weekend?

 

[CavaliereVerde]

Different darwins are paid on different days...
It depends on when they were allocated.

You can trust me I was allocated many times with both LSC and KVL.
What matters is understanding the order of magnitude of the amounts involved.

 

[Gargamel]

You will notice that the earnings for the rest of the month will be lower than these first 5 days.

That is because Darwinia is patient 'dumb money' and waits 6 months,while ordinary 'dumb money' leaves during first modest DD?

 

[CavaliereVerde]

Now we are in the right thread so I can explain with more details.
@IlIlIlIlI
Let's cosider the winners of December 2020, the first available working day was January 4th
Among those the winners will be prized on April 5th, because 4th is Sunday.
But not everyone on April will be paid on 5th because we have also the second quarter for those that won on September 2020.

 

[CavaliereVerde]

At the end of week 2 we are at 3036k of total paid fees .

So we had +20k on week 1 (investors + Darwinia)
+10k on week 2 (investors only)

Maybe my estimation about Darwinia was optimistic.
It could be much better( cheaper) for Darwinex...

Let's continue this monitoring for March.

 

[LongVision]

Any drawdown take at least 4-6 month to recover so consecutive allocation or new equity high needed for few month to earn money from darwinia.

 

[Gargamel]

SYO probably achieved a record Darwinia allocation.The secret is in high D-score:

 

[CavaliereVerde]

From 3036k to 3037k, only 1k of earnings has been paid in week 3.

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

Today the hall of fame shows 3,042,741.39 € payout:

That is 36,159.73 € more than paid until February 28th.