[DARWIN] TTD by Captain Currency

[Captain Currency]

Tuesday 10th Nov went a bit like this:

Trade 1
Usd.Cad -20 pips / -0.38%

Trade 2
Eur.Usd -20 pips / -0.49%

Trade 3
Eur.Usd -20 pips / -0.49%

Trade 4
Eur.Usd -1 pip / -0.03%

Trade 1 a momentum type of trade that came within a few pips of our TP. With this type of setup it is difficult to manage the trade, picking a "safe spot" to drop the SL down to breakeven / entry. Pushing the SL down on these type of setups will (99% of the time) result in getting stopped-out at BE. Some trades need to be left alone and exit at either their pre-entry TP / SL. (see chart below)

Trade 2 after the pair sold down in the morning we got a setup to go short after a retracement. I generally like these setups as we can often test the daily low again. This trade never got going, a false start and the TP at -20 was taken-out.

Trade 3 a second attempt similar to the previous setup where things lined-up again for a momentum trade. This was part of the plan, if the first attempt failed we'd take the second attempt. Price didn't want to sell off and had no mercy for our SL.

Trade 4 a final attempt at re-shorting the Eur.Usd when the setup came along in the afternoon. As much as I don't like losing runs, I'd be a bit of a "mature trader" and would confidently take multiple attempts at a setup without panicking too much or banging my head off the desk. This trade ran out of time and by the end of the session it was around the entry level, the position was closed and a small loss was taken.

Did I get a bad read? Yes, some hours later after studying the Eur.Usd chart and past 3 trades I came to the conclusion that I got a bad read on this pair today. I could clearly see my error, it wasn't about been ill-disciplined it was more about misreading the first move that triggered my short bias. Often times there is a thin line between been bullish, neutral or bearish especially when you're day trading. Normally I'm good at getting a read on the pairs I trade but today, I didn't play the game well!

TTD is currently at -4.14% for November.

 

[Captain Currency]

Wednesday went a bit like this:

Trade 1
Usd.Cad -20 pips / -0.48%

Trade 2
Usd.Cad pips -20 pips / -0.48%

Trade 1 I've noticed this type of setup failed a lot over the past 4 weeks where there seems to be an extra bit of "shakiness" in the market. This mean revision type of trade worked well last month but this month entries are getting triggered then price only makes it to about 50% of the TP and reverses. More studying need to be done by me, a change of tactic during different market phases on this type of setup.

Trade 2 I got short based on the 4 hour down trend, a good entry and price pushed +30 pips in our favour early on. The TP was at +48 pips on this trade and the position needed to be carried overnight. During the Asian session the highs where taken-out and the TP at -20 was touched. Again one of these setup where you couldn't micro-mange the SL, it needed space to have a chance of reaching the full TP at +48.

TTD is currently at -5.06% for the month.

 

[Captain Currency]

Thursday went a bit like this:

Trade 1
Usd.Cad -20 pips / -0.48%

Trade 2
Usd.Cad +28 pips / +0.67%

Trade 1 short here based on the HTF chart (4hr), SL at 20 just got swiped only to see price move quickly down.

Trade 2 similar to the previous, a top and drop type of setup. Occasionally when the first trade fails a second re-entry / re-short level becomes valid. TP was at +28 and SL was at -20 on this setup. Our TP was reach without too much trouble - see chart below.

The effect of market phases, when the market over extends or when it become more volatile than the norm, I reckon more setups similar to Trade 2, "Top and Drop" will start to show up. Win rate is going to go down because these setups are fast moving and will often flush the SL or need a re-entry. On the other hand hopefully the average winner will be higher than normal during this phase of high volatility.

Other setup that would normally work well in less volatile conditions will still show up on the chart but their success rate won't be too good (not good at all). I will do my best and use discretion to avoid these setups or maybe move over to pairs that are currently less volatile - will keep you posted.

TTD is currently at -4.88% for the month.

 

[Captain Currency]

Friday went a bit like this:

Trade 1
Usd.Cad -20 pips / -0.48%

Trade 2
Usd.Cad +15 pips / +0.35%

Trade 1 this position had run over from the previous day, a fairly bog standard trade that offered us nothing.

Trade 2 a pullback setup on Friday afternoon, entry (circled red) was good and the trade hit our TP level - see chart below.

TTD is currently at -5.03% for the month.

 

[Captain Currency]

Monday went a bit like this:

Trade 1
Eur.Usd 0 pips / 0.00%

Trade 2
Usd.Cad active. Update: +40 pips / + 0.96%

Trade 1 a 48 pip TP and 20 pip SL on this pullback trade setup, entry was good and price move in our favour early on. Trade was managed once the position got into +20 pips of profit. Soon after the trade was managed (SL at BE) price reverted back into our entry.

Trade 2 I was looking for a hold and reversal to upside on this setup once price came into our level. SL is at 20 and TP is at 48 pips, this position is still open at time of writing. See update.

TTD is currently at -4.16% for the month.

 

[Captain Currency]

Tuesday went a bit like this:

No trades taken, I was managing the open trade from Monday Trade 2 which was closed out for +40 . Was happy how this trade was managed in the end, the SL was pushed up and the risk was covered as the position got motoring. The pair then sold off soon after our exit.

TTD is currently at -4.16% for the month.

 

[Captain Currency]

Wednesday went a bit like this:

Trade 1
Eur.Usd -10 pips / -0.24%

Trade 2
Eur.Usd +6 pips / +0.14%

Trade 1 a pullback trade with a smaller than normal SL, felt this setup didn't need the full size SL, if it wasn't going to work with a 10 pip SL it more than likely wouldn't work with a 20 pip SL either.

Trade 2 similar setup to above but Eur.Usd wasn't moving too far on the day, not enough movement to reach our TP at 20. By the end of the session this trade was closed out for a small gain.

TTD is currently at -4.26% for the month.

 

[Captain Currency]

Thursday went a bit like this:

Trade 1
Eur.Usd 0 pips / 0%

Trade 1 a retracement setup that I liked the look of from early on, didn't think there was much value in risking the full 20 SL on this setup so instead a 10 pip SL was employed. Entry (red circle) was just right on this trade and as we got into about +15 pips worth of profit the trade management kicked in. The SL was dropped down to BE to cover the risk. Our TP on this trade was +28, we got as far as +18 before support held and pushed price back to the entry level - see chart below.

TTD is currently at -4.26% for the month.

 

[Captain Currency]

Friday went a bit like this:

Trade 1
Eur.Usd -1 pips / -0.03%

Trade 1 another retracement trade, retracements setups seem to be popping up more often in this less volatile market phase. This trade was managed post-entry, SL was pushed down when the position moved favourably in our direction. By late afternoon price stalled and tapped us out for a small loss.

TTD is currently at -4.28% for the month.

 

[Captain Currency]

Monday went a bit like this:

No positions opened today, rather than jumping into the momentum on Eur.Usd I decided to hold back and wait for a potential pullback setup.

TTD is currently at -4.28% for the month.

 

[Captain Currency]

Do you trade 5-mins only?

Almost, now that I’m trading short-term moves 90% of my focus is on the 5 min chart for setup / pattern / price action / entry. At the start of the day I would still consult with the 4hr (and 1 hr) chart for sentiment. Some entries are still based on the HTF charts.

Do you hold any longer-term trades? Or just, seemingly, day-trades.

Since the Sept update almost every trade was capped at +18 pips of profit and was closed within the day. Going forward and based on past opportunities, I’m planning to aim beyond the standard TP 1 (+18 pips) and manage some trades especially counter-trend trades into TP2 (+28 pips) and TP3 (+48 pips). This will no doubt see some trades squeeze outside of the day-trade class. All trades will however keep their stop-loss at -20 pips (or less) irrespective of the TP.

To be continued, thanks @trendie

 

[Captain Currency]

Tuesday went a bit like this:

Trade 1
Usd.Cad +18 pips / +0.43%

Trade 1 a "top and drop" type of setup. Usd.Cad had strong directional moves without any pullbacks for most of the day but by the afternoon it looked like it was going to top-out. A smaller than normal SL was used (10 pips) as this trade was either going to work quickly or not work at all. The entry was good and price made the move I was looking for - see chart below.

TTD is currently at -3.88% for the month.

 

[Captain Currency]

Wednesday went a bit like this:

Trade 1
Usd.Cad 0 pips / -0.01%

Trade 1 a pullback type of setup that started out with a -20 pip SL and an +18 pip TP. Post-entry we got the trade moving in our direction and soon after the trade management kicked in, moving the SL up to the entry level. This position got to within 1 or 2 pips of our TP before it divorced us!

On the flip side, exiting this trade at BE was a good move, by late afternoon there wasn't much rhyme or reason to this pair, large candles jumping up and down on the 5 min chart, trade management won the day ...

TTD is currently at -3.89% for the month.

 

[TLN]

This position got to within 1 or 2 pips of our TP before it divorced us

Well.... just a little bit to catch the TP. Sometimes, the price seems to have eyes. ^^

 

[Captain Currency]

Sometimes, the price seems to have eyes. ^^

It can happen @TrungLN especially when you're day trading. I don't get too beat-up about it, other times price will hit the TP and then reverse a few pips later.

Some days the market will make you look like a genius, other days it will make you look like a fool 🤡

 

[Captain Currency]

Thursday went a bit like this:

A snoozer type of day, I wasn't expecting much price action with it been Thanksgiving Day. No new positions where opened, zero setups appeared on my charts.

TTD is currently at -3.89% for the month.

 

[Captain Currency]

Friday went a bit like this:

Trade 1
Usd.Jpy -10 pips / -0.28%

Trade 2
Usd.Cad +18 pips / +0.49%

Trade 3
Eur.Usd 0 pips / 0.0%

Trade 1 a retracement setup, wasn't 100% sure if the market was still in holiday mode from yesterday so was extra cautious with the risk on this trade. Trade never got moving in our direction so I looked for an early exit.

Trade 2 another retracement type of setup, this time on Usd.Cad. Entry was spot-on and price soon went in our direction heading for the TP at +18 pips. Trade was managed soon after the screenshot below and the SL was moved down to minimise risk.

Trade 3 on a slow day where the Eur.Usd gradually drifted up, I though we might get some type of a sell off by the late afternoon. The entry was good, it did it's job and held but we seen very little in the way of a sell-off. By the end of the day this trade was exited with a very small loss.

TTD is currently at -3.63% for the month.

 

[Captain Currency]

Monday went a bit like this:

Trade 1
Usd.Cad -10 pips / -0.25%

Trade 2
Usd.Jpy +18 pips / +0.49%

Trade 1 seen as I felt we where in the right environment I was on the lookout for a hold and reversal (to the upside) on the Usd.Cad pair but reversals are always going to be tricky. Aiming for a potential +50 pip reward the Max I wanted to risk on this attempt was 10 pips and that turned out to be a good decision, the reversal did come but not after it sank further south than I'd have liked, not a clear setup this time.

Trade 2 Usd.Jpy was fairly calm from early on and I felt a pullback setup could work, one came in the afternoon and the entry was good (see chart below) and I was happy to let price take a run at resistance and then exit once the position had been managed, SL pushed up to BE when we where comfortably in the green.

TTD ends the month of November at -3.46%.

 

[Captain Currency]

Nov Stats for Darwin TTD

Trades: 36
Win rate: 30%
Avg win: +15 pips / +0.34%
Avg loss: -11 pips / -0.24%
Pairs traded: E.U / U.C / U.J
Avg trade: 2h 57m
Return: -3.63%
Max DD: -5.53%

Market conditions where unfavourable for some of the setups I trade and I was also slow to recognise the challenging conditions (higher volatility). I can't blame the market conditions for my losses rather it was the decisions / setups I took.

In December I need to work even harder at getting better reads, conditions when to use setup X or setup Y or even when to be flat.

During the second half of Nov results where better compared to the first half of the month and this was down to making better choices around setup selection, managing winning trades and also reducing the overall risk on some setups - see graph below.

Roll on December ...

 

[Captain Currency]

Tuesday went a bit like this:

Trade 1
Usd.Cad -10 pips / -0.22%

Trade 2
Usd.Cad -10 pips / -0.22%

Trade 3
Usd.Jpy +27 pips / +0.76%

TTD is currently at +0.32% for the month.