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[DARWIN] TTD by Captain Currency

Wednesday went a bit like this:

Trade 1
Usd.Cad -8 pips / -0.29%

Trade 2
Usd.Cad -10 pips /-0.35%

Trade 3
Usd.Cad -10 pips / -0.33%

Trade 1 a pullback setup, we got to within 50% of the TP and the SL was trailed-up before we got stopped-out.

Trade 2 a hold and reversal to upside type of setup that I thought was worthy of a play. RvR would have been >2:1 but we just got sucked in by a few pips.

Trade 3 a retest of the above setup but the large bearish move smashed our SL and all our plans on Usd.Cad, an early shower type of day 🚿 🚿🚿

Trade 1


Max. Positive / Negative excursion per trade.

TTD is currently at -1.79% for the month.
 
Thursday went a bit like this:

Trade 1
Usd.Cad +17 pips / +0.57%

Trade 1 after getting creamed by the bears on Wednesday I had to bite my tongue with this counter-trend setup. Entry (circled below) was good enough to hold with a 10 pip stop-loss. The take-profit on this setup was always going to be +17, pre-entry I was happy with the potential risk versus reward.

As price moved in our favour the SL was trailed-up until the TP was reached. A decent enough trade that grew extra legs beyond our profit target 👌

Trade 1


Max. Positive / Negative excursion per trade.

TTD is currently at -1.23% for the month.
 
Might be worth replying here also to this pm 👇

❓ Why don't you just use a trailing stop-loss to it's fullest and only exit once the trailing stop-loss has been hit?
Click to expand...

Not every trade / setup will give me the opportunity to trail it. From experience, price action and chart structure might suggest that some pullback trades will just come into the resistance / support area and then fade off - see chart below.

To close in on the position, minimise risk and eventually bank some profit before it might fade off, the SL would be trailed-up as price moved in our favour, the "hard" take-profit area would have been decided pre-entry.

chart 1


Also, if I trailed the SL up by 20 pips on the pullback trade below, the trailing stop-loss (TSL) would have probably tapped-out in around the same amount of pips as the original take-profit (TP). This happens often when you try and trail intra-day moves.

chart 2


Some days it's six of one, half a dozen of the other. To try and be a bit more consistent in my decision making and results, I'd prefer to use a fixed take-profit over a trailing stop-loss (y)
 
Friday went a bit like this:

No new positions opened, Usd.Cad bolted early on and Eur.Usd looked sedated for the whole of Friday. I was interested in this pullback setup on Usd.Jpy below but it never fully come into the pullback zone.

chart 1

TTD is currently at -1.23% for the month.
 
Monday went a bit like this:

Trade 1
Usd.Cad +18 pips / +0.61%

Trade 2
Eur.Usd -10 pips / -0.40%

Trade 3
Usd.Cad -3 pips / -0.06%

Trade 4
Usd.Cad -10 pips / -0.38%

Trade 5
Usd.Cad -10 pips / -0.34%

A day that started off great but by the afternoon it had turned into an arm wrestling match 💪

Trade 1 was a tidy pullback that continued north for most of the day. Usd.Cad seems to be doing extreme moves (bullish and bearish) over the past while, very difficult to know if intraday moves will fully extend or reverse.

Trade 1

TTD is currently at -1.80% for the month.
 
Tuesday went a bit like this:

Trade 1
Eur.Usd -10 pips / -0.35%

Trade 2
Eur.Usd -10 pips / -0.35%

We're definitely running cold at the moment as TTD continues on this fruitless phase. A combination of price movement over-extending and triggering our SL, plus some setups within structure just not performing as we'd wish.

I've noticed that during a losing phase / month the number of trades taken goes up, 5 trades opened on Mon is not the norm. This also featured during the last fruitless phase back in Oct / Nov last year where the number of trades taken climbed up. I don't believe it is a case over-trading, it's more to do with when price is over extending it naturally brings in and triggers extra positions. Also as trades get stopped-out more often there will inherently be more chance of new trades been opened.

Observation and knowledge will be the benefit that comes from these losing phases and TTD will strengthen going forward (y)

TTD remains at -2.47% for the month.
 
Wednesday went a bit like this:

Trade 1
Eur.Usd -10 pips / -0.36%

Trade 2
Usd.Cad -10 pips / -0.35%

Trade 3
Usd.Jpy -10 pips / -0.40%

Mean revision trades (3 above) are just not doing the business for us this month. Pairs are not even trending, they are simply overextending their normal range 👿

TTD is currently at -3.56% for the month.
 
Friday went a bit like this:

Trade 1
Usd.Cad -10 pips / -0.34%

Trade 2
Eur.Usd -1 pip / -0.03%

Trade 3
Eur.Usd -10 pips / -0.36%

TTD is currently at -4.58% for the month.
 
Jan Stats for Darwin TTD

Trades: 26
Win rate: 15.38%
Avg win: +13.68 pips / +0.50%
Avg loss: -7.34 pips / -0.27%
Pairs traded: E.U / U.C / U.J
Avg trade: 1h 7m
Return: -4.58%
Max DD: -5.60%

Pullback trades worked well for us again this month. There where less to be had than December but overall they performed OK with most hitting their TP and the rest hitting their trailing SL for a less than 10 pip loss.

Mean revision trades on the other hand where disappointing and gave us nothing in the way of winners even though the setups where plentiful.

In January I wanted to explore mean revision / reversal setups more than I had in the previous few months. Mean revision setups could offer us 4:1 RvR so I'd expect their win ratio to be on the low side. Over time TTD would need a better than 20% win rate to make these trades worthwhile. Here is a mean revision / reversal trade from Dec, a setup I'd like to take more advantage of going forward.

Return / Risk

Risk versus reward still remains positive (and always will). Overall the win rate needs to be higher than it was in Jan but I'm not expecting a win rate of 50%, gotta be realistic!

Max. Positive / Negative excursion per trade.

Roll on February 👍
 
Monday went a bit like this:

Trade 1
Eur.Gbp -10 pips / -0.49%

Trade 1 a pullback trade with a 10 pips SL and TP of 18. Trade never kicked-off and by the end of the session it was fairly flat. Thought it might be worth holding the position to see if we could head up gain.

👉 During this month I will be trading pairs other than the norm: E.U, U.C and U.J
TTD is currently at -0.49% for the month.
 
Wednesday went a bit like this:

Trade 1
Gbp.Usd -10 pips / -0.27%

Trade 2
Usd.Cad +20 pips / +0.67%

Trade 3
Nzd.Usd -0.1 pip / -0.04%

Trade 2 a pullback setup on Usd.Cad, entry held (circled below) and price soon obliged moving up in our direction. Trade was managed when we got moving north and the initial SL of 10 pips was pushed up.

Trade 2

Trade 3 I don't like talking about bad beats but jeepers creepers, how unlucky can you be to come within 1 pip of your TP??? The trade below was a mean revision setup with a 10 pip SL and a 40 pip TP. The trade was managed and the SL was pushed up to BE where we eventually got stopped-out.

Pity, would have been nice to bag a 4:1 winner 👌

Trade 3


Max. Positive / Negative excursion per trade.

TTD is currently at -0.59% for the month.
 
Thursday went a bit like this:

Trade 1
Aud.Chf -0.01 pips / -0.02%

Trade 2
Uud.Chf -10 pips / -0.38%

Trade 1 a pullback trade that looked like it could go all the way and hit our TP. The initial SL of 10 pips was managed and pushed higher as price moved in our favour. Price turned over before our TP at 20 and the position was stopped out for a small loss.

Trade 1

TTD is currently at -0.99% for the month.
 
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