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[DARWIN] JTL by okcm2019
- Thread starter CavaliereVerde
- Start date
- Watchers 35
Hello.
Q1. Do you have a website or an email for contact?
A1. Sorry, I do not have either. But I plan to have my website by the end of this year.
Until then, please post here and I will answer any questions.
I've made a change to the strategy since my last post.
I have started splitting trades.
JTL is losing this week, so the stats below are from last week,
compared to one month and one week.
Only the number of trades has increased.
Thank you for reading.
Q1. Do you have a website or an email for contact?
A1. Sorry, I do not have either. But I plan to have my website by the end of this year.
Until then, please post here and I will answer any questions.
I've made a change to the strategy since my last post.
I have started splitting trades.
JTL is losing this week, so the stats below are from last week,
compared to one month and one week.
Only the number of trades has increased.
Thank you for reading.
Hello.
I will now post my thoughts on trading. First I want to tell you that my thoughts include survivorship biases. Still, they may be helpful for your trading.
•Compound Interest
The most important aspect of trading is compound interest.
This allows us to turn small amounts of money into large amounts of money without relying too much on luck.
The principle of compound interest gives us two rules, and we also know what to do from those rules.
1. Get more time
i. Be healthy and live longer
- increase our time
ii. Continue trading
- if trading is stressful, we will not be able to continue for long,
so find out what is stressing us out and try to reduce stress
2. Avoid large losses
i. Reduce lot size
ii. Trade assets with low correlation
-In risk management, the correct answer is always obvious
•Edge
How I find an edge.
1. Research big players
The biggest impact on the market is the trading of big players. If they are not using TA, then TA is not useful in that market. Some players, such as hedge funds, are difficult to understand, but mutual funds disclose their investment policies.
2. Use a reliable cycle.
We can't know the future, but we can know some things.
i. Morning, afternoon, evening, and night - day-night cycles
ii. Spring, summer, fall, and winter - seasonal cycles
- Some Darwins that trade in the evening US time and early morning Asian time use this cycles.
- Volatility also has cycles of high and low periods
•To Investors
Thank you for investing in JTL. I used to work for CTA in Japan and I know that communication between traders and investors can be difficult. All I can do is to show you that I am taking risks as well as investors. I will do my best to keep good performance.
Thank you for reading.
I will now post my thoughts on trading. First I want to tell you that my thoughts include survivorship biases. Still, they may be helpful for your trading.
•Compound Interest
The most important aspect of trading is compound interest.
This allows us to turn small amounts of money into large amounts of money without relying too much on luck.
The principle of compound interest gives us two rules, and we also know what to do from those rules.
1. Get more time
i. Be healthy and live longer
- increase our time
ii. Continue trading
- if trading is stressful, we will not be able to continue for long,
so find out what is stressing us out and try to reduce stress
2. Avoid large losses
i. Reduce lot size
ii. Trade assets with low correlation
-In risk management, the correct answer is always obvious
•Edge
How I find an edge.
1. Research big players
The biggest impact on the market is the trading of big players. If they are not using TA, then TA is not useful in that market. Some players, such as hedge funds, are difficult to understand, but mutual funds disclose their investment policies.
2. Use a reliable cycle.
We can't know the future, but we can know some things.
i. Morning, afternoon, evening, and night - day-night cycles
ii. Spring, summer, fall, and winter - seasonal cycles
- Some Darwins that trade in the evening US time and early morning Asian time use this cycles.
- Volatility also has cycles of high and low periods
•To Investors
Thank you for investing in JTL. I used to work for CTA in Japan and I know that communication between traders and investors can be difficult. All I can do is to show you that I am taking risks as well as investors. I will do my best to keep good performance.
Thank you for reading.
Magnocapital.ok
Newbie
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Hola como estás ? me interesa mucho tu gestion en darwinex con tu track record de estos ultimos 4 años.
yo soy empresario argentino y dueño de un hedge fund llamado INSTAGRAM: @Magnocapital.ok
me gustaria contactarme con vos de manera privada. te dejo mi whatshap: +9 54 2645203557
email de magno: [email protected] / mi email personal: [email protected]
te escribo para ver si llegamos a un acuerdo, poder invertir dinero en tu cuenta. Gracias
yo soy empresario argentino y dueño de un hedge fund llamado INSTAGRAM: @Magnocapital.ok
me gustaria contactarme con vos de manera privada. te dejo mi whatshap: +9 54 2645203557
email de magno: [email protected] / mi email personal: [email protected]
te escribo para ver si llegamos a un acuerdo, poder invertir dinero en tu cuenta. Gracias
Hola. @Magnocapital.ok
Gracias por su interés.
Me alegra mucho saber de ti, pero lo hago todo por mi cuenta y aún no estoy preparado para contactar con los inversores individualmente. Hasta que tenga mi página web, puede publicar sus preguntas aquí o si tiene muchas preguntas, por favor envíe una lista de preguntas al Sr. Ignacio en Darwinex y las responderé.
Utilizo la traducción de DeepL, así que disculpa si el texto no es correcto.
Gracias por su interés.
Me alegra mucho saber de ti, pero lo hago todo por mi cuenta y aún no estoy preparado para contactar con los inversores individualmente. Hasta que tenga mi página web, puede publicar sus preguntas aquí o si tiene muchas preguntas, por favor envíe una lista de preguntas al Sr. Ignacio en Darwinex y las responderé.
Utilizo la traducción de DeepL, así que disculpa si el texto no es correcto.
CavaliereVerde
Senior member
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Hi @Magnocapital.ok
It is not so wise to share email or phone numbers on a public forum.
This forum supports private messaging between users so I suggest you to use that.
Regards!
It is not so wise to share email or phone numbers on a public forum.
This forum supports private messaging between users so I suggest you to use that.
Regards!
Last edited:
Darwin -> https://www.darwinex.com/darwin/JTL
Retour impressionnant, skin impressionnant dans le jeu.
Très bonnes valeurs en RS et LA .
Selon la description, il s'agit d'une stratégie d'arrêt et d'inversion, d'un effet de levier stable et d'un nombre de transactions à la recherche d'un journal de trading.
En tant qu'investisseur je ne trouve que 2 défauts.
Le rendement est trop élevé et DD est trop faible.
Cela semble contre-intuitif mais 40% en un an n'est pas un résultat durable, la première vague d'investisseurs rêveurs se presse déjà.
EX = 10 mais un an ce n'est pas tant, une raison de plus d'attendre un DD sérieux à venir, un tableau complet et une entrée décente.
Bonjour,
Je suis investisseur sur darwins dont le vôtre et je développe aussi des robots de mon côté en utilisant au maximum les drawdowns mais sans perdre de profits, même en lissant les courbes d'equity pour ma part j'ai trouvé 2 solutions sur les robots multisymboles MT5.
La première solution est la fonction ATR pour lisser les courbes d'équité sans réduire le rendement, voici le code sur MQL5
https://www.mql5.com/fr/articles/3299
Je parle de la seconde seulement après, si vous testez déjà la première solution sur votre darwin et que vous la mettez en place sur votre vrai compte darwin
Bon code
Merci
[email protected]
Hello.
Thank you for your investment in JTL.
Also thank you for your suggestions on risk management.
However, I would like to adjust the lot size according to volatility and only diversify assets to avoid increasing parameters.
As changes from my post three months ago, I have been improving the capacity values.
Specifically, further diversification of assets and further splitting entries in a single trade signal.
Looking at the recent results, it seems to be working so far.
I spoke with Mr. Juan Colon just the other day.
He said that until recently Darwinex had not been able to get permission to advertise in the EU due to Brexit, but that they could finally start marketing.
As THA has 10MM AuM, I think Darwinex has been getting more and more investors lately, so I hope this will continue to be a good cycle of more investors, better traders joining, and more investors.
Thank you for reading.
Thank you for your investment in JTL.
Also thank you for your suggestions on risk management.
However, I would like to adjust the lot size according to volatility and only diversify assets to avoid increasing parameters.
As changes from my post three months ago, I have been improving the capacity values.
Specifically, further diversification of assets and further splitting entries in a single trade signal.
Looking at the recent results, it seems to be working so far.
I spoke with Mr. Juan Colon just the other day.
He said that until recently Darwinex had not been able to get permission to advertise in the EU due to Brexit, but that they could finally start marketing.
As THA has 10MM AuM, I think Darwinex has been getting more and more investors lately, so I hope this will continue to be a good cycle of more investors, better traders joining, and more investors.
Thank you for reading.
Thanks @IlIlIlIlI
I am not sure why my D-Score is getting better. But I think the number of trades has increased significantly by splitting the entries, so the statistical reliability has increased.
Trading at Darwinex was initially just for myself, and I started creating JTL just for fun. However, I am just amazed at how many people have invested in JTL, even though the volatile environment has helped me to achieve good results.
I am able to continue to have consistent results because of the good tension of managing other people's money. Thank you very much, investors.
My profit from the beginning in Darwinex is as follows, totaling trading profits and success fees, etc.
I will do my best to continue the good results.
Thank you for reading.
I am not sure why my D-Score is getting better. But I think the number of trades has increased significantly by splitting the entries, so the statistical reliability has increased.
Trading at Darwinex was initially just for myself, and I started creating JTL just for fun. However, I am just amazed at how many people have invested in JTL, even though the volatile environment has helped me to achieve good results.
I am able to continue to have consistent results because of the good tension of managing other people's money. Thank you very much, investors.
My profit from the beginning in Darwinex is as follows, totaling trading profits and success fees, etc.
I will do my best to continue the good results.
Thank you for reading.
BenHardy
Junior member
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- 20
Hi “okcm2019“,
First of all I (also) want to congratulate you on JTL’s incredible performance on darwinex.com: I’ve never seen such a stable growth curve not being based on gambling or tick scalping etc. – absolutely great!
I have two questions and would be very happy if you could answer them:
1.) You already stated that JTL works best in volatile environments. So the last years (since starting your trading on darwinex.com) overall where in your favor. Additionally, according to JTL’s description, the trading system is fully automated. So I assume that you were/are able to fully backtest your strategy. If that’s actually the case, could you post a long-term growth curve here in the forum? As you surely know, so many (retail) investors “exit” a DARWIN investment at the exactly wrong moment. In your case e.g. it could happen that a market phase of lower volatility leads to a longer stagnation phase regarding JTL’s performance and a lot of guys might think “Oh, JTL lost its edge”. But actually such stagnation phases are totally within the anticipated long-term growth expectancy. So if your backtest would show us all that such type of stagnation is “normal”, many investors would easier remain “faithful” to JTL – at least IMHO. So can you show us such type of stats?
2.) According to Darwinex’ stats – your average (effective) pips per trade is around 4. Thus you already do a great job regarding your position splitting to handle (currently) about $ 8 million AuM. A few years ago I have developed a “position splitting tool” (Expert Advisor / EA) that is fully customizable. Its name is “PCEA” (Position Cloning EA). I think it maximizes any trading system’s scalability. If you’re interested in using it (of course for free), I can send you even the respective source code along with some explanations. Just send me an email to [email protected].
Best,
Ben
First of all I (also) want to congratulate you on JTL’s incredible performance on darwinex.com: I’ve never seen such a stable growth curve not being based on gambling or tick scalping etc. – absolutely great!
I have two questions and would be very happy if you could answer them:
1.) You already stated that JTL works best in volatile environments. So the last years (since starting your trading on darwinex.com) overall where in your favor. Additionally, according to JTL’s description, the trading system is fully automated. So I assume that you were/are able to fully backtest your strategy. If that’s actually the case, could you post a long-term growth curve here in the forum? As you surely know, so many (retail) investors “exit” a DARWIN investment at the exactly wrong moment. In your case e.g. it could happen that a market phase of lower volatility leads to a longer stagnation phase regarding JTL’s performance and a lot of guys might think “Oh, JTL lost its edge”. But actually such stagnation phases are totally within the anticipated long-term growth expectancy. So if your backtest would show us all that such type of stagnation is “normal”, many investors would easier remain “faithful” to JTL – at least IMHO. So can you show us such type of stats?
2.) According to Darwinex’ stats – your average (effective) pips per trade is around 4. Thus you already do a great job regarding your position splitting to handle (currently) about $ 8 million AuM. A few years ago I have developed a “position splitting tool” (Expert Advisor / EA) that is fully customizable. Its name is “PCEA” (Position Cloning EA). I think it maximizes any trading system’s scalability. If you’re interested in using it (of course for free), I can send you even the respective source code along with some explanations. Just send me an email to [email protected].
Best,
Ben
CavaliereVerde
Senior member
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According to "assets and timeframes" the average winning trade is 45 pips and the average losing trade is 35 pips.
We have an average duration of 7 hours.
I see swing trading with decent capacity here.
Looking to Capacity investable attribute the darwin can manage 35 millions.
BenHardy
Junior member
- Messages
- 10
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- 20
Well the issue actually is more complex:
1.) JTL’s average holding time is about 7 hours – as you said correctly. But the average effective winning trade’s pips can’t be 44.47 as stated in “Assets & Timeframes”. The forex market’s volatility is not big enough to allow making about 45 pips within 7 hours on average. But as soon as you’re not trading only forex pairs but also indices, gold, oil etc. (like JTL does), such high values easily can be achieved. But in order to make them comparable to forex the values have to be “normalized”. Overall we can say that:
a) 7 hours mean that JTL is more focused on day-trading respectively short-term movements (as also confirmed by the trader). So it’s not about swing trading, at least not focussed.
b) Two pips of slippage each at entry & exit (e.g. due to big AuM) would kill the profits (the image below uses “normalized pips”, see above):
c) Nevertheless Darwinex’ stats for “Cp” (capacity) isn’t relevant, because it does not consider the maximum possible amount of position size splitting: Cp is always calculated based on the actual trading behavior and not considering “what would be in case the trader splits his entries/exits by 100 and thus needs 300 seconds for the full entry/exit” etc. But many DARWINs with average holding times above 2 hours could do such type of splitting without significant reduction of the performance. JTL already does some position size splitting and I guess this even could be done more heavily while reducing the divergence (currently about -0.2% per month).
2.) Basically we can say that the average PnL pips
= (average winner trade pips) * (winning rate) - (average loser pips) * (loser rate) determine a trading system’s respectively DARWIN’s scalability (of course also the traded assets’ liquidity and broker execution quality etc.). The technical term for this is “pip expectancy” or “expectancy in pips”. However, as soon as you don’t use a fix lot size, things turn out to me more complicated. Let’s consider an extreme example:
We are solely trading on EURUSD and its rate always is 1.00000 when opening a new position. We’re maintaining a 100000 USD account and always trade with 1 lot (so leverage is 1:1). We only have winner trades with 100 net pips.
Additional we utilize a different trading strategy, a tick scalping system. We always make 1 net pip of profit per trade, no losers, and we utilize leverage = 100:1. The number of trades per month for the swing trading strategy (see above) is the same as the one for our tick scalping. So our arithmetic PnL pips would be (100 + 1) / 2 = 50.5 net pips per trade. So one might think “oh, this trading system is highly scalable: Even with 10 pips of slippage in total per trade expectancy only shrinks from 50.5 to 40.5 pips. But what actually means 10 pips of slippage for our highly leveraged tick scalping system with expectancy = 1 pip? This means that instead of every profit trade you always get a loss 9 times that much. So the swing trades with big pips become meaningless. In our example they only could reduce the average loss per trade to 8 times of a “regular profit” (instead of 9).
Best,
Ben
1.) JTL’s average holding time is about 7 hours – as you said correctly. But the average effective winning trade’s pips can’t be 44.47 as stated in “Assets & Timeframes”. The forex market’s volatility is not big enough to allow making about 45 pips within 7 hours on average. But as soon as you’re not trading only forex pairs but also indices, gold, oil etc. (like JTL does), such high values easily can be achieved. But in order to make them comparable to forex the values have to be “normalized”. Overall we can say that:
a) 7 hours mean that JTL is more focused on day-trading respectively short-term movements (as also confirmed by the trader). So it’s not about swing trading, at least not focussed.
b) Two pips of slippage each at entry & exit (e.g. due to big AuM) would kill the profits (the image below uses “normalized pips”, see above):
c) Nevertheless Darwinex’ stats for “Cp” (capacity) isn’t relevant, because it does not consider the maximum possible amount of position size splitting: Cp is always calculated based on the actual trading behavior and not considering “what would be in case the trader splits his entries/exits by 100 and thus needs 300 seconds for the full entry/exit” etc. But many DARWINs with average holding times above 2 hours could do such type of splitting without significant reduction of the performance. JTL already does some position size splitting and I guess this even could be done more heavily while reducing the divergence (currently about -0.2% per month).
2.) Basically we can say that the average PnL pips
= (average winner trade pips) * (winning rate) - (average loser pips) * (loser rate) determine a trading system’s respectively DARWIN’s scalability (of course also the traded assets’ liquidity and broker execution quality etc.). The technical term for this is “pip expectancy” or “expectancy in pips”. However, as soon as you don’t use a fix lot size, things turn out to me more complicated. Let’s consider an extreme example:
We are solely trading on EURUSD and its rate always is 1.00000 when opening a new position. We’re maintaining a 100000 USD account and always trade with 1 lot (so leverage is 1:1). We only have winner trades with 100 net pips.
Additional we utilize a different trading strategy, a tick scalping system. We always make 1 net pip of profit per trade, no losers, and we utilize leverage = 100:1. The number of trades per month for the swing trading strategy (see above) is the same as the one for our tick scalping. So our arithmetic PnL pips would be (100 + 1) / 2 = 50.5 net pips per trade. So one might think “oh, this trading system is highly scalable: Even with 10 pips of slippage in total per trade expectancy only shrinks from 50.5 to 40.5 pips. But what actually means 10 pips of slippage for our highly leveraged tick scalping system with expectancy = 1 pip? This means that instead of every profit trade you always get a loss 9 times that much. So the swing trades with big pips become meaningless. In our example they only could reduce the average loss per trade to 8 times of a “regular profit” (instead of 9).
Best,
Ben
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Hi okcm2019, firstly congrats for you performance. One question, do you have copy trading or something like this (MAM,PAM) in another broker? Thank you
Hello @BenHardy
Thank you for your questions.
Sorry, I am not going to publish my backtest results.
There are two reasons.
The first is to avoid wrong decisions by investors. Maybe my backtesting method is bad, but the backtest results are better than the actual performance. However, this may lead investors to be overly optimistic about JTL's performance, and it would be more accurate to look at JTL's actual performance alone when making an investment decision.
And the second reason is that I do not believe that backtesting is important. In my opinion, backtesting performance has little to do with future performance. In my experience, the best strategies have been those that have proven to be profitable without the need for backtesting. So I use backtesting only to confirm that the strategy is profitable and I do not make it to show to others. I have also been using this strategy since 2014 and have made adjustments from time to time and I have forgotten the parameters I used in the past.
Even the strategy I trade in Darwinex have changed significantly from year 1 to year 3 as I have increased the number of assets and shortened the holding time. So, again, I would like you to judge only on actual performance, assuming that strategy will change.
The fact that it tends to perform better when volatility is high is a logical consequence derived from the theory I use in this strategy (sorry, I can't talk about this theory). I think it is inevitable that investors would be disappointed about JTL in a low volatility environment. I too was disappointed with this strategy from March to July 2021. Looking at recent results I am hopeful for similar results in the future, but who knows what the future will bring. All I can do is invest enough money in this strategy to put myself in the same position as the investors: when they lose money, I lose money as well, and when they make money, I make money as well.
Thanks again for your suggestion about offering your code. As I mentioned before, I am not ready to contact you individually yet and may ask again when I am ready. The recent worsening of divergence is of concern to me as well and I would like to split orders a bit more.
Thank you for reading.
Thank you for your questions.
Sorry, I am not going to publish my backtest results.
There are two reasons.
The first is to avoid wrong decisions by investors. Maybe my backtesting method is bad, but the backtest results are better than the actual performance. However, this may lead investors to be overly optimistic about JTL's performance, and it would be more accurate to look at JTL's actual performance alone when making an investment decision.
And the second reason is that I do not believe that backtesting is important. In my opinion, backtesting performance has little to do with future performance. In my experience, the best strategies have been those that have proven to be profitable without the need for backtesting. So I use backtesting only to confirm that the strategy is profitable and I do not make it to show to others. I have also been using this strategy since 2014 and have made adjustments from time to time and I have forgotten the parameters I used in the past.
Even the strategy I trade in Darwinex have changed significantly from year 1 to year 3 as I have increased the number of assets and shortened the holding time. So, again, I would like you to judge only on actual performance, assuming that strategy will change.
The fact that it tends to perform better when volatility is high is a logical consequence derived from the theory I use in this strategy (sorry, I can't talk about this theory). I think it is inevitable that investors would be disappointed about JTL in a low volatility environment. I too was disappointed with this strategy from March to July 2021. Looking at recent results I am hopeful for similar results in the future, but who knows what the future will bring. All I can do is invest enough money in this strategy to put myself in the same position as the investors: when they lose money, I lose money as well, and when they make money, I make money as well.
Thanks again for your suggestion about offering your code. As I mentioned before, I am not ready to contact you individually yet and may ask again when I am ready. The recent worsening of divergence is of concern to me as well and I would like to split orders a bit more.
Thank you for reading.
Hello @Mbc
Thank you for your question.
Darwinex is the only company I offer strategies with. As I mentioned before, I just created Darwin for fun because I heard that Darwinex is a reputable A-book broker and they offer discounted commissions.
OTC brokers, especially B-book brokers, often have an adversarial relationship between customers and brokers, and I have experienced this with accounts being frozen. That is not the case at Darwinex, and I think Darwinex is a very good broker because it allows for a cooperative relationship between the customer and the broker.
Thank you for your question.
Darwinex is the only company I offer strategies with. As I mentioned before, I just created Darwin for fun because I heard that Darwinex is a reputable A-book broker and they offer discounted commissions.
OTC brokers, especially B-book brokers, often have an adversarial relationship between customers and brokers, and I have experienced this with accounts being frozen. That is not the case at Darwinex, and I think Darwinex is a very good broker because it allows for a cooperative relationship between the customer and the broker.
BenHardy
Junior member
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- 20
Thanks for your quick response. Alright, we can come back to this (PCEA/code) later when you're "ready". Regarding your backtest results (that you won't show publicly): I basically can understand your thoughts on it. Even though I assess it differently (and I also think that proper backtesting does exist), said issue would become a long and very complex discussion here - so I guess we should pass on it
.
morehastelessspeed
Member
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I completely agree with this, and it's also my philosophy when investing in any Darwin: invest in the trader's peformance, not on their strategy. This applies to algorithmic traders as well as to manual traders, systematic or discretional.
Their trading can and should evolve for improvement, and it is not practical to start a new Darwin each time a small modification is made on a strategy.
The only way I would think I'm investing on a particular strategy would be if the algorithmic code was locked by encription, so that it could not be changed without investors being alerted ahead of time, before the change was implemented.
Hello @Gerry_1
Thank you for your question.
There are two reasons for the rapid increase in open trades.
The first is because I have increased my trading assets for diversification.
I am now trading 8 assets. (4 currencies, 2 stock indices, 2 commodities)
The second reason is that a single trade signal is split into multiple trades to reduce market impact.
I try to keep the size of the trade below $500,000 as much as possible.
Since AuM has recently increased, the number of splits has also increased compared to before.
Currently it is 5 to 10 splits, but could increase to about 20 splits.
Thank you for your question.
There are two reasons for the rapid increase in open trades.
The first is because I have increased my trading assets for diversification.
I am now trading 8 assets. (4 currencies, 2 stock indices, 2 commodities)
The second reason is that a single trade signal is split into multiple trades to reduce market impact.
I try to keep the size of the trade below $500,000 as much as possible.
Since AuM has recently increased, the number of splits has also increased compared to before.
Currently it is 5 to 10 splits, but could increase to about 20 splits.
