[DARWIN] IRY by itstradingtime - FedericoSellitti

[itstradingtime]

Hey what’s up, just starting to be more active in this forum and reviewing other darwinex traders (as I am).

I want to congratulate you first for your results and milestones, it’s inspiring. Also ask you a question: Do you trade other financial instruments like options?

Hi @jonfuentesx , thanks for your kind words and let me also take the opportunity to thank CavaliereVerde and ASGTrade.
I traded options at the period of University, in order to get familiar with other financial instruments that I was studying. I traded most of the derivative securities, including futures and swaps.
I decided to specialise in spot Forex trading because it is the one I feel most comfortable with. I still trade some options from time to time on IG, but it's more like spotting some big opportunities than having a stable long term strategy.

 

[LokshinTrader]

@itstradingtime
Very complete presentation of your strategy!
👍

Great presentation @itstradingtime

If I may ask: is there a specific reason why your ALM system focuses on the GBPUSD? Or to put it in another way: does the system work on other pairs besides the GBPUSD?

 

[TLN]

Great presentation @itstradingtime

If I may ask: is there a specific reason why your ALM system focuses on the GBPUSD? Or to put it in another way: does the system work on other pairs besides the GBPUSD?

I'm not sure is it what you want? He shows it right on 2nd post of this thread.
"I use the system only on GBP/USD because of several reasons:

1. It’s been the one that performed at the best since 2010;
2. Since the system is trend-catcher and performs better with high volatility, GBP/USD offers better conditions than some other pairs like EUR/USD;
3. GBP/USD spread is, most of the times, better than other pairs like GBP/JPY;
4. GBP/USD has, most of the times, more liquidity than other pairs, this means less problems such as spread widening and slippages, especially during the overnight sessions."

 

[itstradingtime]

Great presentation @itstradingtime

If I may ask: is there a specific reason why your ALM system focuses on the GBPUSD? Or to put it in another way: does the system work on other pairs besides the GBPUSD?

Hi @LokshinTrader , thanks
Yes, there are specific reasons why I apply the system to GBPUSD.
First reason is "instrument robustness", which is the ability of the system to have a positive performance in different market conditions (like trends or ranges) and with different currency pairs.
My system is not robust. It does not perform well during ranges and sudden changes of direction, while it maximises profits during trending markets. Some pairs like EURCHF, which have tendencies to build strong ranges, are not ideal for this system.

The second reason is that the system works on Stop Losses that are around 50 pips. A spread of 0.5 pips on GBPUSD is a fee of 1%, but paying 3 pips on pairs like GBPAUD would be a fee of 6%, which would require a higher win rate to sustain in the long period in order to be profitable.
Another problem of some currency pairs is the spread widening during the overnight market. Since the system always have a position on the market, from Monday to Friday, 24 hours per day, if you have a position that is 20 pips far from the stop loss right before the end of the New York session, the risk of losing it only because of the overnight spread is much higher with some minors, compared to majors like GBPUSD.

So, considering everything, regarding Forex Trading, there are a few currency pairs that returned consistent profits in the long period. GBPUSD is the most performing one and the one I prefer because of tighter spreads and higher liquidity.
There is a good number of students (I share the system in a course on Udemy) who are trading with the same system on Gold. They had a wonderful year, better than my year on GBPUSD, because of the great rally, but I haven't tested it yet with a large sample, so I stick to GBPUSD

Edit: thanks @TrungLN for helping out, I forgot that post!

 

[TLN]

thanks @TrungLN for helping out, I forgot that post!

You're welcomed.
Since, I have same reason as yours about trading GU only.

 

[CavaliereVerde]

Following your reasonings EURUSD should be even better.
Up to my experience spreads on GBPUSD are not superstable on Darwinex, Gold was even worse.

 

[LokshinTrader]

Thanks for your detailed response.

There is a good number of students (I share the system in a course on Udemy) who are trading with the same system on Gold. They had a wonderful year, better than my year on GBPUSD, because of the great rally, but I haven't tested it yet with a large sample, so I stick to GBPUSD

This is interesting though👆
So I guess it's not a case of "it only works" on GBPUSD. I suppose it can be a gold mine elsewhere (as demonstrated by your students); it must just be discovered with large enough sampling (pun not intentional😀).

 

[itstradingtime]

Following your reasonings EURUSD should be even better.

Regarding spread and liquidity, it is true, EURUSD should be better.
The win rate for the system is slightly over 53% on 1:1 RR ratio, so compound interest over time is one of the keys for the system.
It's really a system similar to the casino with roulette, betting on red and black. You win 1 when you win, you pay 1 when you lose. The casino doesn't win because it wins bigger, but because it wins more often in time.
EURUSD averages less than 300 trades per year with the system, while GBPUSD around 500. In the long term, GBPUSD destroys EURUSD for this reason.
I have published studies in the course about profitability vs win ratio. Some filters, proposed by the students, improved the win ratio for the system, reaching almost 60% of win% against the 53% of the original system. Profitability went down though, because the number of trades per year was significantly less than the original system.

Thanks for your detailed response.




This is interesting though👆
So I guess it's not a case of "it only works" on GBPUSD. I suppose it can be a gold mine elsewhere (as demonstrated by your students); it must just be discovered with large enough sampling (pun not intentional😀).

No, definitely it works on some other assets but not on all of them. I personally use it with Bitcoin as well, with good results. It's an algorithm, so pretty easy to take past chart and back-test. It just takes time and money to buy reliable data

 

[Muiris]

Have you pulled the plug on your darwin for now. unusual to see flat line on equity curve this last week

 

[itstradingtime]

Have you pulled the plug on your darwin for now. unusual to see flat line on equity curve this last week

Hi Muiris,
sorry for the late reply. I have been in touch with my investors for the past 10 days to figure out the best way to close the fund on Darwinex, and I didn't trade while we were talking about it.
The system behind IRY is already in a bad period of trading. In all honesty, considering also the negative effect that the VaR is having on IRY and the 1.2% management fee that investors are paying, I would not advice to invest in IRY anymore.
Financial markets are full of opportunities. Whether it is another Darwin or another market, I believe that, with the current state of the market, funds can be placed better elsewhere.

I have also uploaded a video on my YouTube channel, if someone wants to know the details:

I'm open to any question and/or criticism and I thank all the investors and friends who have been by my side in this experience. It meant a lot to me.

 

[Muiris]

Hi Muiris,
sorry for the late reply. I have been in touch with my investors for the past 10 days to figure out the best way to close the fund on Darwinex, and I didn't trade while we were talking about it.
The system behind IRY is already in a bad period of trading. In all honesty, considering also the negative effect that the VaR is having on IRY and the 1.2% management fee that investors are paying, I would not advice to invest in IRY anymore.
Financial markets are full of opportunities. Whether it is another Darwin or another market, I believe that, with the current state of the market, funds can be placed better elsewhere.

I have also uploaded a video on my YouTube channel, if someone wants to know the details:

I'm open to any question and/or criticism and I thank all the investors and friends who have been by my side in this experience. It meant a lot to me.

sorry to hear. a class act till the end.

 

[FXforfun]

Honest trader. I'm impressed