Daily Trading Advisory

[arturo1]

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 10-September-2009

ROLLOVER DAY IS TODAY 10 SEPTEMBER 2009
ALL MY NUMBERS ARE BASED IN THE DECEMBER CONTRACTS​

Markets continue to press higher, Fed’s Beige Book: worst recession since 1930 may be over.
ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM Initial Claims
8:30 AM Trade Balance
YESTERDAY’S MARKET
After trading quite during the Globex session, the E-mini SP started the day at 1026.25 from where it pulled back to 1023.25. After a few attempts to break lower, the index rallied to 1030.25 where the bounce lost its steam and posted a double top. The index pulled back to 1027.50, but with strong support coming in near the highs it pushed up to a new intraday high at 1030.75. As the rally continued and leaded by the strength on the Nasdaq, the SP made its way higher reaching 1035.25. Later a new marginal high at 1036.25 posted the intraday high. After holding in a narrow range above the 1033.00 level, markets finally pulled back, the SP tested 1028.25, just at my intraday support area. After bouncing to 1030.75 it backed off to 1027.00 and held, so the index pushed up to 1031.50 and pulled back but bounced to test the 1034.50. For the day, the SP closed higher by 7.75 points at 1032.75, the Nasdaq added 12.25 points and settled at 1667.50 and the Russell finished the session at 585.10 with a 9.20 points gain. The Dow added 49 points closing at 9547.
MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “After last week mild correction in which the SP found support well above my 978.00, the markets have recovered nicely just to the pre sell off level, the 1028.50 area on the SP. If this was a lower high, that area will have to remain intact on the close. However, there is not argument to discharge another test of the 1040.00’s, and there is not argument to discharge a new high on all the markets. The Nasdaq, which leaded the rally from the march lows, has been lagging and showing some problems around the 1650.00 area, but the consolidation in that index will probably get resolved to the upside, support is coming at very high levels, so there is not a reason to be short that market. It is not that I am expecting a wild rally, no, but I do expect the indexes to slowly work their way higher, under this assumption, I will continue to be a buyer on the dips watching closely the Nasdaq and the 1018.50 area on the SP, if the markets are trading negative or the SP breaks below that area, I may stay on the sidelines and probably wait for a test of the 1010.00 level..”

The markets acted as expected, no wild moves but a clear bullish bias. Finally, and after trading in a long sideways pattern for a long period, the Nasdaq reached my 1675.00 upper objective, that level get exceeded by a few points, saw some profit taking and managed to close at decent levels.
Our previous upside objective for the SP was at 1038.50, so that index that managed to come back from the last sell off attempt may struggle against that resistance area for the next couple of days, two consecutive closes above the 1040.00 level may indicate another up leg that easily could push the index up to the 1060.00-1078.00 area, if that happens, the Dow will be facing the 10000 level.
In think that this slow uptrend will continue, the 1038.50 area on the SP and another test of the 1675.00 level on the NQ may be in the cards for today’s trading session, but as yesterday I don’t expect a huge move, more back and forth action with a slightly bullish bias, however, some selling may be seen once the SP trades below 1028.00-1027.00, the real selling will appear only if the SP breaks below the 1018.50 level.

TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at 1029.50-1031.00 on the SP, 1668.00-1670.00 on the Nasdaq and 584.10-585.60 on the Russell, trading above them will indicate a test of 1032.50-1034.50 on the SP, 1676.00-1678.00 on the Nasdaq and 588.00-589.60 on the Russell. If those get exceeded look for the markets to push higher as short covers giving way to an upside move that may reach 1037.50-1038.50 on the SP, 1684.00-1685.50 on the Nasdaq and 591.90-593.20VVVV on the Russell before the session is over, if those get violated on the SP, avoid any short position.


Initial support at 1025.50-1025.00 on the SP, 1661.50-1659.00 on the Nasdaq and 579.40-578.80 on the Russell, if those do not hold, expect some profit taking that may reach 1023.00-1021.50 on the SP, 1656.00-1655.00 on the Nasdaq and 576.10-575.20 on the Russell. Failing there will probably result in a negative session after the main indexes test the KEY short term support areas at 1018.00-1017.00 on the SP, 1650.00-1649.00 on the Nasdaq and 573.10-572.50 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1042.00-1044.00 1692.00-1694.00 596.80-597.50
Resistance 3 1037.50-1038.50 1684.00-1685.50 591.90-593.20
Resistance 2 1032.50-1034.50 1676.00-1678.00 588.00-589.60
Resistance 1 1029.50-1031.00 1668.00-1670.00 584.10-585.60
PIVOT 1025.00 1661.00 579.70
Support 1 1025.50-1025.00 1661.50-1659.00 579.40-578.80
Support 2 1023.00-1021.50 1656.00-1655.00 576.10-575.20
Support 3 1018.00-1017.00 1650.00-1649.00 573.10-572.50
Support 4 1013.00-1011.00 1642.00-1641.00 567.20-566.00


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1104.00 1808.63 659.5
1076.26 1757.22 631.6
1059.26 1725.72 614.5
1048.75 1706.25 603.9
1042.26 1694.22 597.4
1031.75 1674.75 586.8
1025.26 1662.72 580.3
1023.25 1659.00 578.3
1021.24 1655.28 576.2
1014.75 1643.25 569.7
1004.24 1623.78 559.1
997.75 1611.75 552.6
987.24 1592.28 542.0
970.24 1560.78 524.9
942.50 1509.38 497.0








DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1038.25 1685.00 593.20
AS DAILY LOW 1021.00 1653.00 576.10​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
Index Futures Information Services - Emini Trading Advisory and Trading Alerts | TheMiniTrade.com

 

[arturo1]

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 15-September-2009


Stocks started the day lower on Lehman’s collapse anniversary but turned up closing with moderate gains.
ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM Core PPI
8:30 AM PPI
8:30 AM Retail Sales
8:30 AM Retail Sales, exclude auto
8:30 AM NY Empire Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM Business Inventories

YESTERDAY’S MARKET
Markets traded on the red during the Globex session. The E-mini SP started the day at 1029.75 and rallied to 1032.75 from where it pulled back to 1030.00 and rallied back to 1035.00. The index pulled back once more and while trading with lack of direction reached 1036.50. As the markets continued to hold, the SP posted a new high at 1040.00, then, the SP pulled back to 1036.25. With the markets trading in a narrow range for a long period the indexes showed support at very high levels, this, gave way to a spike that reached the 1043.25 area on the SP. Once more, markets traded in a sideways pattern, during the last hour of the session the SP pushed to new highs reaching 1045.25 before pulling back into the close, for the day, the SP added 6.25 points and settled at 1043.50, the Nasdaq gained 4.50 points closing at 1688.00 and the Russell added 4.70 points closing the day at 595.30. The Dow managed to extend the rally by 21 points closing at 9626.
MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “Markets continued to trade in the same pattern, new highs, narrow ranges and a “good” close for the week. This low volume narrow range trading sessions have placed the indexes in a breakout position, the 1040.00 area on the SP which get exceeded during Friday’s session, its reversal below that level and the failure to close above it may be indicating that a short term top has been posted, however, there is still no evidence that the trend has changed, and until that happens, a negative session won’t be more than that, a profit taking session. After five consecutive sessions in which the markets closed with gains, on a struggling rally that posted a spike during last Friday, the index could be in a fragile position, but it needs to break support in order to start a first degree correction, that means a 2-3 negative sessions. If those negative days will show limited losses and volumes will continue to be low, it should translate in a good buying opportunity, but if a negative session is a wide range red session and shows some follow through during the next day, then a correction that push the SP below the 1000.00 area may be in the cards.”


Early weakness in front of the Obama’s speech was not able to gain any downside momentum; finally the lack of selling gave way to higher prices during the day.
I have mentioned that despite the topping conditions on the markets, yesterday’s session, the indexes posted double tops and closed at the daily highs, there is not still evidence of trending lower, however, the slow struggling push to new highs could be pointing to a strong breakout that place all the markets at new highs. I have also mentioned that two consecutive sessions in which the SP closes above the 1040.00 area will probably gave way to a new upside leg, but, there is still some indecision at the current levels, and the flow of new money, typically increased during new highs has not been seen.
All this against the reality, that is clearly printed on the charts, and that maintains the uptrend intact may place us on a defending position against any short trade, but should also keep us suspicious against any upside move, so let’s avoid short trades unless the SP gets back below the 1040.00-1038.50 area and, if that happens, do not insist too much on the long side.
In conclusion, a second close above the 1040.00area on the SP will give more credibility to yesterday’s marginal new highs, and for today, a bunch of economic news will get released before the opening, so if the opening takes place below 1040.00 selling the rallies all the time that the SP is trading below that area is the way to go, otherwise, the rally may continue. FOR SURE, I DON’T WANT TO BE SHORT IF THE SP IS TRADING ABOVE 1040.00.

TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance above yesterday’s highs at 1045.25-1047.00 on the SP, 1696.00-1698.00 on the Nasdaq and 596.70-598.00 on the Russell, trading above them may indicate more upside follow through as the indexes reach 1049.00-1050.50 on the SP, 1702.50-1703.00 on the Nasdaq and 599.40-601.10 on the Russell. I assume that the first time that area gets tested on the SP, the index could show some profit taking that pushes down to 1042.00, but if the markets are strong the 1050.00 area will get exceeded giving way to a strong breakout that push the SP up to the 1055.00 area.
There is support at 1041.00-1039.50 on the SP, 1685.00-1683.00 on the Nasdaq and 592.60-591.20 on the Russell. I don’t want to be short all the time that the markets are trading above those levels, if those cannot hold, then a test of 1036.00-1034.00 on the SP, 1676.00-1675.00 on the Nasdaq and 589.10-587.50 on the Russell may be in the cards, if those fail, look for a test of yesterday’s early lows. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1057.00-1058.00 1725.00-1726.50 606.80-607.40
Resistance 3 1054.00-1055.00 1708.00-1710.00 603.50-604.00
Resistance 2 1049.00-1050.50 1702.50-1703.00 599.40-601.10
Resistance 1 1045.25-1047.00 1696.00-1698.00 596.70-598.00
PIVOT 1038.00 1681.00 591.90
Support 1 1041.00-1039.50 1685.00-1683.00 592.60-591.20
Support 2 1036.00-1034.00 1676.00-1675.00 589.10-587.50
Support 3 1031.00-1030.00 1670.00-1668.00 585.30-584.20
Support 4 1026.50-1025.00 1652.00-1650.00 579.10-578.00


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1129.19 1804.38 661.0
1096.96 1761.13 636.7
1077.21 1734.63 621.8
1065.00 1718.25 612.6
1057.46 1708.13 606.9
1045.25 1691.75 597.7
1037.71 1681.63 592.0
1035.38 1678.50 590.3
1033.04 1675.37 588.5
1025.50 1665.25 582.8
1013.29 1648.87 573.6
1005.75 1638.75 567.9
993.54 1622.37 558.7
973.79 1595.87 543.8
941.56 1552.63 519.5








DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1054.25 1703.00 604.00
AS DAILY LOW 1034.50 1676.00 589.10​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
Index Futures Information Services - Emini Trading Advisory and Trading Alerts | TheMiniTrade.com

 

[arturo1]

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 18-September-2009


Housing Starts at the highest in the last nine months, Initial Claims lower than expected and Philadelphia Fed higher than expected gave way to new highs and a flat close.
ECONOMIC DATA
None

YESTERDAY’S MARKET
After trading at new highs during the Globex session, the E-mini SP started the day at 1062.50 and moved up to 1065.00. With the markets waiting for the release of the Philadelphia Fed Index, the SP backed off to 1062.50. Then, it bounced once more to the intraday highs and continued higher reaching 1070.50. The SP pulled back to 1066.00 just to bounce once more to 1069.50, after failing to make a new high, the SP pushed down to 1062.50. Once more, markets held and the index moved higher to 1069.00. Markets continued to fluctuate offering trading opportunities on both sides, the SP sold off to 1059.75 where buyers stepped back pullback, thin pushing the index up to 1063.00. The bounce failed and the SP made a new low at 1056.25, however, the index held and slowly recovered to a neutral position reaching 1064.50 before pulling back into the close. For the day, the SP lost .75 points and settled at 1062.75, the Nasdaq gained 2.25 points finishing the day at 1720.00 and the Russell added .60 points closing the day at 614.50. The Dow closed marginally lower by 7 points at 9783.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
During the last two weeks I wrote that if the SP was able to close during two consecutive sessions above the 1040.00 area, the next levels, at 1068.00-1070.00 would probably get reached.
It was real easy for that market to move forward reaching its next upside objective, two consecutive days, in a slow but a solid manner, the SP moved higher and reached my upside objective.
What is next, first of all, everything indicates that the SP will continue to push upward on its way to close an open gap from last October, that gap is around the 1102.00 area; second, yesterday, after been trading only to the upside for nine days, the rally stalled, once the objective was reached, markets fluctuated and closed moderately lower. Is Friday’s option expiration the reason to take some chips off the table? Or is it that the markets may see some consolidation before they try to close the open gap? Or we have a short term top?
There is no evidence that the uptrend has ended, there is no evidence that the trend has changed and the markets will move lower, there is only a one day negative session with moderate losses, so there is no reason to stop buying the dips.
Today, an option expiration day, end of trading quarter, I personally avoid day trading, I may stay on the sidelines during the session, everything could happen, early in the morning when the futures expired we could see a reversal from the preopening trend, later, as the day pass, some volatility if the expiration is not priced yet, and with the Jewish New Year festivity starting Friday’s night, many traders will surely leave at noon, so take it easy, if you are lucky enough to take some early profits, call the week and go to rest. Tip: try to be long above the 1064.00 area on the SP and 1722.00 on the NQ.GOOD LUCK



TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at 1065.50-1067.00 on the SP, 1723.00-1725.00 on the Nasdaq and 615.50-616.40 on the Russell, if those get exceeded try to maintain a long position as the next levels at 1070.75-1071.00 on the SP, 1729.00-1731.00 on the Nasdaq and 620.00-620.20 on the Russell may get tested. If the bounce stalls there posting double tops at yesterday’s highs, look for sellers to try and push lower, but if those do not hold the end of week buying pressure expect the indexes to post another positive session reaching 1076.00-1078.00 on the SP, 1739.00-1740.50 on the Nasdaq and 625.40-626.70 on the Russell.


There is support at 1061.00-1059.00 on the SP, 1718.00-1716.00 on the Nasdaq and 612.60-611.60 on the Russell. If those fail, look for stronger support at 1055.00-1054.00 on the SP, 1711.00-1709.50 on the Nasdaq and 609.10-607.40 on the Russell. Holding there may give way to a bounce of 8.00-10.00 points on the SP, but if those fail, then a strong negative session may be seen.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1081.00-1083.00 1757.50-1750.00 629.80-630.40
Resistance 3 1076.00-1078.00 1739.00-1740.50 625.40-626.70
Resistance 2 1070.75-1071.00 1729.00-1731.00 620.00-620.20
Resistance 1 1065.50-1067.00 1723.00-1725.00 615.50-616.40
PIVOT 1063.50 1721.00 615.00
Support 1 1061.00-1059.00 1718.00-1716.00 612.60-611.60
Support 2 1055.00-1054.00 1711.00-1709.50 609.10-607.40
Support 3 1051.00-1050.00 1702.50-1701.00 604.60-603.50
Support 4 1048.00-1047.50 1693.00-1692.00 599.20-598.80


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1136.31 1808.06 664.7
1111.42 1778.28 647.7
1096.17 1760.03 637.3
1086.75 1748.75 630.9
1080.92 1741.78 626.9
1071.50 1730.50 620.5
1065.67 1723.53 616.5
1063.88 1721.38 615.3
1062.08 1719.22 614.1
1056.25 1712.25 610.1
1046.83 1700.97 603.7
1041.00 1694.00 599.7
1031.58 1682.72 593.3
1016.33 1664.47 582.9
991.44 1634.69 565.9









DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1067.00 1734.00 617.50
AS DAILY LOW 1051.75 1716.00 607.10​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
Index Futures Information Services - Emini Trading Advisory and Trading Alerts | TheMiniTrade.com

 

[arturo1]

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 21-September-2009


Michigan Sentiment index up in early September, markets fluctuate after posting new highs for the year.

WEEKLY PIVOTS FOR WEEK ENDING 25-September-2009
R3 1098.50
R2 1089.00
R1 1073.00
PP 1052.50
S1 1048.50
S2 1033.25
S3 1018.00


ECONOMIC DATA
10:00 AM Leading Indicators.


WEEKLY RECAP
Another good week for the U.S. stock indexes. After trading lower during Sunday’s night stocks started the week with losses, it was the Lehman Brothers collapse anniversary, but the early weakness turned into a buying opportunity as the markets recovered and closed with gains. The SP added 6.25 points and settled at 1043.50, the Nasdaq gained 4.50 points closing at 1688.00 and the Russell added 4.70 points closing the day at 595.30. The Dow managed to extend the rally by 21 points closing at 9626. The bullish sentiment continued into Tuesday’s session, the different economic reports were well received by investors, NY Manufacturing Index was up to 18.9, and Retail sales jumped 2.7% and PPI was up 1.7%.The SP posted its second consecutive close above the 1040.00 area, a positive sign and an indicator of higher prices. Later in the session, Bernanke said that the recession is likely over; this pushed the markets up for a close on the green, new yearly highs for all the indexes. Wednesday’s session CPI came out up 0.4% and Industrial Production gained 0.8% gave way to another positive session, a slow uptrend developed during the day, new highs, new money into the markets. Thursday’s session was not different, early strength was sold but the markets posted new intraday highs and fluctuated during the day, Housing Starts at the highest in the last nine months, Initial Claims lower than expected and Philadelphia Fed higher than expected gave way to new highs and a flat close. For the day, the SP lost .75 points and settled at 1062.75, the Nasdaq gained 2.25 points finishing the day at 1720.00 and the Russell added .60 points closing the day at 614.50. The Dow closed marginally lower by 7 points at 9783. Friday was quadruple witching expiration, markets fluctuated during all the session, ranges were narrow and the settlements were below fair value. For the day, the SP lost 1.75 points and settled at 1061.00, the Nasdaq added 1.25 points closing the week at 1721.25 and the Russell closed almost unchanged at 614.20. The Dow closed higher by 36 points at 9820. The week was strong and the markets advanced more than 2%.



FRIDAY’S MARKET
Ready for the September quadruple witching expiration and after trading with losses during the Globex session, the E-mini SP started the day at 1067.00 and pulled back to 1063.50. The index bounced back to 1066.25 and failed to break above the early highs giving way to a pullback to 1062.25. With the Russell leading the profit taking move and the Nasdaq trading in negative territory, the SP continued to press lower to the 1060.25 level. The sell off lost its momentum and after a few attempts to break lower shorts covered giving way to a bounce to 1064.75. With intraday low volumes, the indexes fluctuated in a sideways pattern, after testing 1059.75 the index came back and during the last hour of the session reached 1067.00, later, the markets pulled back into the close closing below fair value. For the day, the SP lost 1.75 points and settled at 1061.00, the Nasdaq added 1.25 points closing the week at 1721.25 and the Russell closed almost unchanged at 614.20. The Dow closed higher by 36 points at 9820.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Last Friday I wrote:” During the last two weeks I wrote that if the SP was able to close during two consecutive sessions above the 1040.00 area, the next levels, at 1068.00-1070.00 would probably get reached. It was real easy for that market to move forward reaching its next upside objective, two consecutive days, in a slow but a solid manner, the SP moved higher and reached my upside objective. What is next, first of all, everything indicates that the SP will continue to push upward on its way to close an open gap from last October, that gap is around the 1102.00 area; second, yesterday, after been trading only to the upside for nine days, the rally stalled, once the objective was reached, markets fluctuated and closed moderately lower. Is Friday’s option expiration the reason to take some chips off the table? Or is it that the markets may see some consolidation before they try to close the open gap? Or we have a short term top? There is no evidence that the uptrend has ended, there is no evidence that the trend has changed and the markets will move lower, there is only a one day negative session with moderate losses, so there is no reason to stop buying the dips.”



Markets traded strong during the week reaching my 1070.00 area on the SP. As we approach the end of quarter, the risk of a correction seems higher, this correction could take place during the next two or three weeks, also the Dow is getting closer to the 10000 area that I assume that the first time it gets tested, some selling will be seen.
On the SP, the 1070.00 area which was slightly exceeded during the week may have posted a high for the next few days, but once that level gets exceeded on a closing base, the way for the 1102.00 area will be open.
Last Friday I wrote that there is no evidence that the uptrend has ended and that the markets will start to trade lower, however, Friday’s weak close, below fair value may be indicating a first degree correction, that means three to four trading sessions in which selling dominates, if that correction exceed this time window, then we could assume that a short term high has been posted and the markets will trade in a sideways pattern before they resume their uptrend into the end of the year. Also, we could have a few sessions in which the indexes struggle to push down, a pullback that does not push below the 1038.50 will give a chance to buyers to regroup and push the markets higher.
But if the indexes continue to trade higher without any decent pullback, with this long term buying pressure, then this abnormal uptrend will certainly get resolved with a very strong profit taking move before the end of the year.
On the short term, for today’s trading session, markets may be under pressure as long as the 1067.00 area holds, so selling the bounces below that level may result in a good trade. So in conclusion, we could see the markets trading lower for the next three to four sessions, if that happens and the SP holds the 1038.50 area and the Dow the 9600 level, a great buying opportunity for those who lost the last up leg from the 1040.00 area will be present.


TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at 1063.00-1064.25 on the SP, 1724.50-1726.00 on the Nasdaq and 615.80-616.50 on the Russell, if the markets fail to trade above them, weakness may be present during all the session, if those do not hold, then a test of the 1067.00-1067.50 on the SP, 1730.25-1731.00 on the Nasdaq and 618.90-620.30 on the Russell will be seen. The trend is neutral if those cannot get exceeded, so if the bounce stalls there, getting short with tight stops could result in a good trade. Once those levels fail to contain the buying pressure, the markets should go for the 1073.00-1074.00 areas on the SP and 1739.25-1740.00 and 622.30-624.00 for the Nasdaq and Russell respectively.


There is support at 1059.50-1058.00 on the SP, 1718.00-1716.50 on the Nasdaq and 612.60-611.90, on the Russell, those held during Friday’s session, if they fail, then a test of the last intraday lows at 1055.50-1054.50 on the SP, 1712.50-1711.00 on the Nasdaq and 609.70-609.50 on the Russell may happen. A double bottom down there, in particular on the Nasdaq may give way to a strong rebound, but if they fail, then the next support areas at 1051.00-1049.75 on the SP, 1703.75-1702.00 on the Nasdaq and 605.30-603.80 on the Russell may get tested before the session is over. GOOD LUCK

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1078.50-1080.00 1748.50-1750.00 626.70-628.10
Resistance 3 1073.00-1074.00 1739.25-1740.00 622.30-624.00
Resistance 2 1067.00-1067.50 1730.25-1731.00 618.90-620.30
Resistance 1 1063.00-1064.25 1724.50-1726.00 615.80-616.50
PIVOT 1061.50 1721.50 613.80
Support 1 1059.50-1058.00 1718.00-1716.50 612.60-611.90
Support 2 1055.50-1054.50 1712.50-1711.00 609.70-609.50
Support 3 1051.00-1049.75 1703.75-1702.00 605.30-603.80
Support 4 1044.00-1043.00 1694.75-1693.00 601.20-598.50


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1117.69 1805.94 653.9
1098.51 1776.97 640.1
1086.76 1759.22 631.6
1079.50 1748.25 626.3
1075.01 1741.47 623.1
1067.75 1730.50 617.8
1063.26 1723.72 614.6
1061.88 1721.63 613.6
1060.49 1719.53 612.5
1056.00 1712.75 609.3
1048.74 1701.78 604.0
1044.25 1695.00 600.8
1036.99 1684.03 595.5
1025.24 1666.28 587.0
1006.06 1637.31 573.2










DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1064.00 1734.75 620.30
AS DAILY LOW 1052.50 1717.00 611.80​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
Index Futures Information Services - Emini Trading Advisory and Trading Alerts | TheMiniTrade.com

 

[arturo1]

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 23-September-2009



Home prices in the U.S. increased .3% during July. Markets continue to fluctuate trading in a narrow range.
ECONOMIC DATA
10:35 AM Crude Inventories
2:15 PM FOMC Rate Decision and Policy Statement

YESTERDAY’S MARKET
With the markets trading higher during the night, the E-mini SP started the session at 1066.00 and pulled back to 1064.00. The index bounced, reached 1066.50 but backed off once more, this time to the 1063.25 level. After holding for a few minutes, the SP made a new intraday low at 1061.50, then it bounced to 1066.00, posted a double top and pushed lower to test the lows. The index bounced once more and reached 1068.75, later, it traded in a sideways pattern and posted a new intraday high at 1069.25. With the Nasdaq showing relative weakness, the move stalled and the markets continue to trade in a sideways pattern, the SP pulled back to 1065.25 but bounced and fluctuated into the end of the session. For the day, the SP added 6.75 points and settled at 1067.25, the Nasdaq closed at 1734.25, up 6.50 points for the day and the Russell added 4.90 points and settled at 618.70. The Dow closed higher by 51 points at 9829.
MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “In yesterday’s newsletter I wrote about the possibilities of a short time correction, a first degree pullback that does not exceed three to four trading sessions, however, yesterday’s action calls for a consolidation and not a correction. This low volume and slow action could continue also during today, and may change after next Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. So, yesterday’s trading action does not give as a clue for the next important move, a trading range with the 1067.00 area on the upper boundary and 1052.00 on the lower border, so trading both sides of the markets could result, however, if the Nasdaq is over performing the SP, look for this index to show some short covering in front of the Wednesday announcement.”



Markets continue to consolidate and traded in another narrow range as investors wait for Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. This last two days correction attempt has failed to gain the necessary momentum to push down; support continues to come at very high levels. But that can change after today’s rate decision, not because rates will suffer any change, just because this tight ranges, normally give way to a strong breakout. Odds favor the chance of another push to the upside, but if the SP trades below yesterday’s lows at 1059.50, that could change and give way to a test of the 1045.00 or 1038.00 areas. So all the time that yesterday’s low remains intact chances favor a final move to the 1100.00-1102.00 mark during the next coming sessions.
Today, we have the FOMC rate decision, rates will stay lower, no changes expected. As in every date in which the market expects a rate decision, the indexes will probably make an early trend move, after that, volumes will be ultra light as traders wait for the news. Many times, the early move gets reversed about 20 minutes before the release of the announcement. Once the news gets released, we normally have three different moves, the first one, a false impulsive move that gets exhausted, its reversal and then, after 30 to 40 minutes after the release, a third move that we should try to follow, that is normally a trend move; traders with limited funds on their accounts, may avoid trading during the day. Look for an up move if the Nasdaq is over performing the SP.





TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance around yesterday’s highs at 1068.50-1070.00 on the SP; 1737.00-1738.50 on the Nasdaq and 619.40-620.60 on the Russell, trading above them will push the indexes up to the most recent highs at 1073.00-1075.00 on the SP, 1741.50-1743.00 on the Nasdaq and 622.50-623.10 on the Russell. A double top up there could get resolved with a strong profit taking move, but if the indexes breakout the last two days consolidation, look for new highs around 1078.00-1079.50 on the SP, 1749.50-1751.00 on the Nasdaq and 624.50-624.80 on the Russell.



There is support at 1065.50-1064.50 on the SP, 1732.00-1730.00 on the Nasdaq and 617.60-617.00 on the Russell. If those fail, look for the markets to test 1063.00-1061.50 on the SP, 1726.00-1725.50 on the Nasdaq and 615.10-614.90 on the Russell. Those held nicely during yesterday’s trading session, if buyers step in there, look for a strong bounce, but if those do not hold, then the 1057.50-1055.50 areas on the SP and 1718.00-1716.00 on the Nasdaq and 611.10-610.70 on the Russell will have to hold or the SP may visit Monday’s lows. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1083.00-1084.50 1758.00-1760.00 628.30-628.90
Resistance 3 1078.00-1079.50 1749.50-1751.00 624.50-624.80
Resistance 2 1073.00-1075.00 1741.50-1743.00 622.50-623.10
Resistance 1 1068.50-1070.00 1737.00-1738.50 619.40-620.60
PIVOT 1065.25 1733.50 617.80
Support 1 1065.50-1064.50 1732.00-1730.00 617.60-617.00
Support 2 1063.00-1061.50 1726.00-1725.50 615.10-614.90
Support 3 1057.50-1055.50 1718.00-1716.00 611.10-610.70
Support 4 1051.50-1050.00 1710.00-1708.00 604.40-603.80


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1110.69 1808.19 649.1
1094.78 1782.48 638.1
1085.03 1766.73 631.4
1079.00 1757.00 627.3
1075.28 1750.98 624.7
1069.25 1741.25 620.6
1065.53 1735.23 618.0
1064.38 1733.38 617.3
1063.22 1731.52 616.5
1059.50 1725.50 613.9
1053.47 1715.77 609.8
1049.75 1709.75 607.2
1043.72 1700.02 603.1
1033.97 1684.27 596.4
1018.06 1658.56 585.4








DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1073.00 1745.00 623.10
AS DAILY LOW 1063.25 1729.50 616.40​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com