Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 24-July-2009


ATT, 3M and Ford better than expected results, Initial Claims up to 554K, Continuing Claims lower and Existing Home sales up 3.6%, better than expected gave way to a strong rally. After hours, markets lower on Microsoft weak outlook and Amazon 10% drop in profits.


ECONOMIC DATA
9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment- rev.


YESTERDAY’S MARKET
After trading higher during the Globex session in witch the E-mini SP reached 956.50, the index started the day at 951.50 and pushed up to 954.50. After hesitating a bit to push higher, the SP moved up to 956.00 and just before the economic data get released it broke above resistance and rallied to 960.25. As shorts ran in to the exit, the markets continued to push up strongly, the E-mini SP reached 965.50 and then 968.75. After pulling back to 966.00 the SP rallied to 970.75. With no sellers coming into the markets and shorts getting squeezed, the markets continued to push higher with the SP reaching 973.50. The rally stalled and the markets traded in a narrow sideways pattern. It took a while but the SP pushed higher to 976.25. The SP pulled back to 972.25, held and continued to trade in a sideways pattern near the daily highs. After testing the daily highs, markets pulled back into the end of the day. For the session, the SP added 19.50 points and settled at 969.00, the Nasdaq closed higher by 27.50 pioints at 1584.00 and the Russell closed at 541.60, up 16.90 for the day. The Dow closed with a solid 188 points advance at 9069.

.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “The strength of the rally, the fact that it has not showed more than a first degree pullback and the way the markets have been able to recover every sell off attempt, make me think that this rally have more to go. However, the SP has tested the June highs and a short term top may have been posted. By short term I mean, that every pullback that does not exceed more than three trading sessions may be considered a buying opportunity as the SP may be able to trade above the 963.00 areas and reach, in the mid term, levels above the 1000.00.This is not an excess of bullishness, is the chart which is indicating higher prices that obviously won’t get reached in a few days, the index, even with the higher lows and higher highs on the daily chart has been struggling during the last few days to move strongly higher, so there is the possibility of a wide range downside session. But, lets not predict what the index will do, meanwhile the trend is up and the pullbacks are not more than consolidations of the huge move that keep showing rotation and accumulation for a further advance. For today’s trading session, selling the bounces all the time that the SP does not exceed the 957.00 area may result, but there is not evidence of trending down, so the first decent pullback, particularly, if it holds the 943.00-942.00 area may turn to be another buying opportunity.”



After a few sessions where the market posted higher lows and highs and struggle to make a strong breakout, the markets finally posted another strong upside move, the SP broke the resistance areas and the Dow traded solidly above the 8900 level. What’s next? When does this rally will show some correction? It can happen at any moment, but a pullback that does not exceed more than three trading sessions may be considered a buying opportunity, it seems that the markets will continue to push up and that the rally may last for another 30 to 40 days, not a vertical move, but strong sessions, limited pullbacks and consolidating sessions that get resolved to the upside, that is what I think is the most probable scenario.
So the SP rallied during eight consecutive sessions, then it posted a negative session with limited losses, and then it broke strongly above the obvious 956.50 resistance area, all this came after the index sold off for seven sessions but reversed and broke above the previous high, the high from where the sell off started, only in three trading sessions. All this indicate that the markets may continue to post new highs, the sideways pattern that started in early May and tested the breakout point forming a bottom between July 8th and July 13 has been resolved to the upside, and any coming pullback may be able to hold the 956.00-950.00 areas and get limited to no more than three days, until that pattern of trend gets broken, the rally will continue and probably will exceed the 1000.00 level.
For today’s trading session, it is not normal to see two consecutive trend sessions, so if yesterday’s move will get consolidated, today may be a narrow range session with opportunities on both sides, but with this strength, a wide opening gap may be seen and exhaust temporarily the move, if that happens, selling against the early highs may be a good idea.
As I write my report markets are trading a bit lower, I don’t think we’ll see a strong reversal from yesterday’s rally but some back and forth action may be seen.





TODAY’S SESSION
There is good resistance at 971.00-973.00 on the SP, 1589.00-1591.50 on the Nasdaq and 543.60-545.10 on the Russell, an early bounce that fail there may give way to some profit taking, if those areas get exceeded, look for a test of yesterday’s highs at 976.50-978.00 on the SP, 1597.00-1599.00 on the Nasdaq and 547.70-548.90 on the Russell. I assume that if the markets get there, they will be able to press higher and reach 981.00-982.00 on the SP, 1608.00-1610.00 on the Nasdaq and 552.60-553.10 on the Russell.

There is support at 966.00-964.00 on the SP, 1578.00-1575.50 on the on the Nasdaq and 539.60-537.80 on the Russell. Trading below them will give way to some decent pullback that may push the indexes down to 961.00-959.50 on the SP, 1570.50-1569.50 on the NQ and 534.40-533.10 on the Russell. If those do not hold, many buyers may be ready to jump in at 956.00-955.00 on the SP, 1558.00-1557.00 on the Nasdaq and 529.50-528.50 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK



TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 984.00-986.50 1618.25-1620.00 555.30-556.90
Resistance 3 981.00-982.00 1608.00-1610.00 552.60-553.10
Resistance 2 976.50-978.00 1597.00-1599.00 547.70-548.90
Resistance 1 971.00-973.00 1589.00-1591.50 543.60-545.10
PIVOT 964.75 1580.75 537.60
Support 1 966.00-964.00 1578.00-1575.50 539.60-537.80
Support 2 961.00-959.50 1570.50-1569.50 534.40-533.10
Support 3 956.00-955.00 1558.00-1557.00 529.50-528.50
Support 4 953.00-952.50 1552.00-1550.50 523.60-522.50





S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1094.44 1810.94 641.1
1049.15 1731.38 604.8
1021.40 1682.63 582.6
1004.25 1652.50 568.9
993.65 1633.88 560.4
976.50 1603.75 546.7
965.90 1585.13 538.2
962.63 1579.38 535.6
959.35 1573.62 533.0
948.75 1555.00 524.5
931.60 1524.87 510.8
921.00 1506.25 502.3
903.85 1476.12 488.6
876.10 1427.37 466.4
830.81 1347.81 430.2
















DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 986.50 1618.25 555.30
AS DAILY LOW 958.75 1569.50 533.10​












Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
 
DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 27-July-2009

WEEKLY PIVOTS FOR WEEK ENDING 31-July-2009
R3 1008.75
R2 1001.00
R1 993.25
PP 963.50
S1 955.75
S2 948.00
S3 918.25


ECONOMIC DATA
10:00 AM New Home Sales

WEEKLY RECAP
Markets posted another strong week as they continue to push up, Monday’s trading session saw the markets higher as the Leading Indicator report showed a .7% increase, up beating earnings gave way to a positive session as the markets closed on the green. Tuesday’s session started with the Bernanke’s testimony, in which he indicated that the FED is still focused on the economic recovery. On the corporate arena, CIT said that it is still considering bankruptcy. For the day, the SP added 4.50 points and settled at 953.50, the Nasdaq closed higher by 14.25 points at 1554.75 and the Russell finished almost unchanged at 524.70. The Dow added 67 points finishing the session at 8915. Wednesday’s session started on the negative side but early weakness get reversed keeping the uptrend intact, Morgan Stanley wider than expected loss, Wells Fargo bad mortgage loans increased, stocks struggle for direction. Nasdaq extend its rally for the 11th consecutive session but markets closed mixed for the day, the SP lost 4.00 points and settled at 949.50, the Nasdaq added 2.50 points closing the session at 1556.50 and the Russell closed almost unchanged at 524.70. The Dow lost 34 points closing the session at 8881. Markets posted a strong and solid rally during Thursday session as they ignored the increase on the weekly Initial Claims data, ATT, 3M and Ford reported better than expected results, Initial Claims was up to 554K, Continuing Claims lower and Existing Home sales up 3.6%, much better than expected. Markets posted a strong session breaking above the resistance areas. For the day, the SP added 19.50 points and settled at 969.00, the Nasdaq closed higher by 27.50 points at 1584.00 and the Russell closed at 541.60, up 16.90 for the day. The Dow closed with a solid 188 points advance at 9069. Friday’s Globex session opened with losses, Microsoft weak outlook and Amazon 10% drop in profits kept the indexes under light pressure; the session saw some consolidation of the previous day rally. The Michigan Sentiment reported lower as growing unemployment eroded consumer confidence. However, there was not selling pressure and the indexes managed to come back pushing the futures to a higher close, the SP closed higher by 8.75 points at 977.75, the Nasdaq gained 13.25 points and settled at 1597.25 and the Russell added 6.20 points finishing the session at 547.80. The Dow added another 23 points finishing the week at 9093.



FRIDAY’S MARKET
After trading in a sideways pattern during the Globex session, the E-mini SP started the day at 967.50 and after pulling back to 966.25 it bounced to 969.50. After a few attempts and with the Nasdaq recovering from early losses, the SP reached 972.00. With the NQ failing to break above the Globex highs, the SP pulled back to 968.50 and once the economic report get released, the index pushed lower to 964.00 from where it bounced to 967.25. While trying to decide its direction, the index reached 968.00 and once more pulled back. The SP tested the Globex lows at 962.50. The markets held and the SP slowly rallied reaching 971.00, after pulling back to 968.00 and once it broke the 971.00 level, the index pushed up to 974.50, later, the index traded in a narrow range near the highs and reached 975.00. Finally, during the last half hour of the session, the markets broke higher reaching new highs. For the day, the SP closed higher by 8.75 points at 977.75, the Nasdaq gained 13.25 points and settled at 1597.25 and the Russell added 6.20 points finishing the session at 547.80. The Dow added another 23 points finishing the week at 9093.
.

.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Last Friday I wrote: “After a few sessions where the market posted higher lows and highs and struggle to make a strong breakout, the markets finally posted another strong upside move, the SP broke the resistance areas and the Dow traded solidly above the 8900 level. What’s next? When does this rally will show some correction? It can happen at any moment, but a pullback that does not exceed more than three trading sessions may be considered a buying opportunity, it seems that the markets will continue to push up and that the rally may last for another 30 to 40 days, not a vertical move, but strong sessions, limited pullbacks and consolidating sessions that get resolved to the upside, that is what I think is the most probable scenario. So the SP rallied during eight consecutive sessions, then it posted a negative session with limited losses, and then it broke strongly above the obvious 956.50 resistance area, all this came after the index sold off for seven sessions but reversed and broke above the previous high, the high from where the sell off started, only in three trading sessions. All this indicate that the markets may continue to post new highs, the sideways pattern that started in early May and tested the breakout point forming a bottom between July 8th and July 13 has been resolved to the upside, and any coming pullback may be able to hold the 956.00-950.00 areas and get limited to no more than three days, until that pattern of trend gets broken, the rally will continue and probably will exceed the 1000.00 level.”



The rally continues with no signs of weakness and, as I pointed during the last few sessions, it seems that it will be able to push higher, there is not evidence that the move ended. I mentioned that the SP will have to show a pullback, which only if it exceed a three day period, may indicate that the rally has ended and the markets will trade in a sideways pattern.
But there area also other ways in which the rally could end, one of them, every time that the market close on the high it could show signs that the buying has exhausted, but in this case, we have seen during the last few sessions, many closes at or near the daily high, so I can not assume that this pattern of trend was exhausted by last Friday settlements.
Other way in which a move could end, is a wide opening gap (in this case an upper gap) in the same direction of the trend, that gap gets reversed and the market closes in the red; that could be an indication, normally it gets followed by a weak rally, that rally, if it fails to post a new high, and the next sessions the market starts to trade with losses, may indicate that a short term top has been posted.

We have not seen any signs that the rally has ended, markets tend to exaggerate their moves, and this one, could get extended. At this point is highly risky to take short, unless you want to catch a high by posting a stop loss order just above the late high. I personally prefer to stay with this strong trend until I see some signs of a correction.
For today’s trading session, beware of a wide up opening gap, wait to see if the index retreats and then on signs of support get long. If the opening does not show any strong move, wait for the first pullback in order to try to enter long, short trades, lets be careful and wait and see how the session take place. The recent pattern may continue to play.




TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance above last Friday highs at 979.25-980.50 on the SP, 1600.00-1602.00 on the Nasdaq and 548.80-550.90 on the Russell. A double top may give way to some profit taking, but it may result a buying opportunity. Once if it happens, and the markets push higher, look for the next resistance areas at 982.50-983.50 on the SP, 1605.50-1607.00 on the Nasdaq and 553.80-554.00 on the Russell. If the markets open strong, the 986.00-986.50 areas on the SP, 1612.00-1612.50 on the Nasdaq and 555.80-556.80 on the Russell, may offer good resistance the first time they get tested.


There is support at 974.50-973.25 on the SP, 1594.00-1592.00 on the Nasdaq and 545.70-544.70 on the Nasdaq. If the indexes can not trade below these areas, we may see another vertical session, but if those fail, then the next support levels at 970.00-968.50 on the SP, 1588.00-1586.50 on the Nasdaq and 537.50-536.60 on the Russell will be visited and they are still a buy, but beware of a quick downside move that could reach 963.00-961.50 on the SP if those fail to hold. GOOD LUCK






TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 989.50-990.00 1618.00-1619.25 558.90-560.20
Resistance 3 986.00-986.50 1612.00-1612.50 555.80-556.80
Resistance 2 982.50-983.50 1605.50-1607.00 553.80-554.00
Resistance 1 979.25-980.50 1600.00-1602.00 548.80-550.90
PIVOT 973.00 1589.75 544.60
Support 1 974.50-973.25 1594.00-1592.00 545.70-544.70
Support 2 970.00-968.50 1588.00-1586.50 542.10-540.60
Support 3 963.00-961.50 1583.00-1581.00 537.50-536.60
Support 4 958.00-956.50 1575.00-1573.00 533.40-532.80


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1049.13 1720.31 596.2
1022.20 1674.21 577.9
1005.70 1645.96 566.7
995.50 1628.50 559.8
989.20 1617.71 555.5
979.00 1600.25 548.6
972.70 1589.46 544.3
970.75 1586.13 543.0
968.80 1582.79 541.7
962.50 1572.00 537.4
952.30 1554.54 530.5
946.00 1543.75 526.2
935.80 1526.29 519.3
919.30 1498.04 508.1
892.38 1451.94 489.8

















DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 986.50 1612.00 553.80
AS DAILY LOW 970.50 1584.50 542.60​












Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
 
Daiy Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 28-July-2009


New Home sales jumps 11%, the highest in nearly nine years. Markets consolidate but closed on the green.


ECONOMIC DATA
9:00 AM Consumer Confidence
9:00 AM S&P CaseShiller Home Price Index


YESTERDAY’S MARKET
After reaching 984.00 during the Globex session, the E-mini SP started the day at 974.00 and after pushing up to 976.25 it pulled back to the 973.00 level. After holding just at my support area, the index bounced back up to 976.50, unable to break higher, the index pulled back once more, this time to 973.50 and once the economic data get released it pushed up to 979.50 where sellers stepped in and sold the markets off. The SP pushed down to 972.00, bounced back to 973.50 and pushed to a new low at 969.00, just at my support areas. The index then started to rebound reaching 972.50 and then 975.75. With the volumes running light, the index traded quietly on a sideways pattern. After testing the 970.75 level, the index bounced back to 978.25 and traded quietly with low volumes. After another pullback to 974.00, markets pushed higher closing near the highs, for the day, the SP added 2.25 points and settled at 980.00, the Nasdaq closed higher by 2.25 points at 1599.50 and the Russell gained 1.70 finishing the session at 549.50. The Dow closed higher by 15 points at 9108.
.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “We have not seen any signs that the rally has ended, markets tend to exaggerate their moves, and this one, could get extended. At this point is highly risky to take short, unless you want to catch a high by posting a stop loss order just above the late high. I personally prefer to stay with this strong trend until I see some signs of a correction. For today’s trading session, beware of a wide up opening gap, wait to see if the index retreats and then on signs of support get long. If the opening does not show any strong move, wait for the first pullback in order to try to enter long, short trades, lets be careful and wait and see how the session take place. The recent pattern may continue to play.”


Markets consolidated during the session, volumes were light, typical for a Monday and the same pattern of trading where the sell off attempts turned into buying opportunities continued to be in play.
Yesterday’s session was the first one in which all the markets were under pressure, the back and forth action finally turned markets higher posting their closes near the daily highs, the intraday highs, because the Globex highs remained intact during all the day.
As we look for signs of a correction I have mentioned that every time that the indexes close at their highs, some exhaustion seem to be present, but yesterday’s action seems to signal some accumulation that will get resolved pushing the markets higher, the SP may be able to trade above the 1000.00 level, another wide range positive session may be seen. Obviously, in this business everything is a possibility, not a “must”, so my work at this moment is to look for signs of weakness, of a turnaround in the trend, and those signs are not present.
So I will continue to play the game in the same way, try to stay on the long side getting long on the pullbacks as long as the recent pattern remains intact, a lower opening, around 974.50 may be a good buying opportunity.







TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance below yesterday’s Globex highs at 981.50-982.50 on the SP, 1602.50-1605.00 on the Nasdaq and 550.40-552.10 on the Russell, a double top at those areas, in particular on the early part of the session may give way to another consolidating session or a close on the red, but if those get exceeded, the markets, may be able to reach 984.50-986.00 on the SP, 1609.00-1612.00 on the Nasdaq and 554.00-554.80 on the Russell. If those do not get reversed, then the remaining shorts may look for the exit pushing the indexes up to 989.00-989.50 on the SP, 1616.00-1618.00 on the Nasdaq and 557.70-558.90 on the Russell.


There is support at 978.50-977.25 on the SP, 1596.00-1594.00 on the on the Nasdaq and 548.60-546.90 on the Russell. If the markets open above them, look for initial strength, but if those get violated before or during the session, then the indexes may go for a test of 975.00-974.50 on the SP, 1591.00-1589.00 on the NQ and 544.20-544.00. Holding above them will certainly give way to anew high, but if they fail, then look for support at 971.75-971.00 on the SP, 1583.00-1582.00 on the Nasdaq and 541.80-540.50 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK.



TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 992.50-993.00 1624.00-1626.50 563.20-564.50
Resistance 3 989.00-989.50 1616.00-1618.00 557.70-558.90
Resistance 2 984.50-986.00 1609.00-1612.00 554.00-554.80
Resistance 1 981.50-982.50 1602.50-1605.00 550.40-552.10
PIVOT 977.50 1595.50 548.10
Support 1 978.50-977.25 1596.00-1594.00 548.60-546.90
Support 2 975.00-974.50 1591.00-1589.00 544.20-544.00
Support 3 971.75-971.00 1583.00-1582.00 541.80-540.50
Support 4 966.00-965.00 1575.00-1573.50 538.50-537.60





S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1047.75 1738.63 593.0
1023.27 1688.85 577.3
1008.27 1658.35 567.7
999.00 1639.50 561.8
993.27 1627.85 558.1
984.00 1609.00 552.2
978.27 1597.35 548.5
976.50 1593.75 547.4
974.73 1590.15 546.3
969.00 1578.50 542.6
959.73 1559.65 536.7
954.00 1548.00 533.0
944.73 1529.15 527.1
929.73 1498.65 517.5
905.25 1448.88 501.8










DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 989.50 1619.50 555.70
AS DAILY LOW 974.50 1589.00 546.10​











Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
 
DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 29-July-2009


Office Depot wider than expected loss, Home prices posted their first monthly gain in three years in May; Consumer Confidence falls for second straight month gave way top a consolidating session as markets fluctuate.


ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM Durable Orders
10:30 AM Crude Inventories
2:00 PM Fed’s Beige Book


YESTERDAY’S MARKET
After trading lower during the night, the E-mini SP started the session at 972.25 and after holding the lows it bounced to 975.00. As the Nasdaq started to rebound, the SP made it to 979.25 but once the Consumer Confidence data get released it sold off failing to trade the previous session settlement. The index moved down all the way to 973.25, it bounced to 975.00 and pushed down to 969.50, just above the previous session lows. The markets held and the E-mini SP bounced back to 974.00, but without the momentum to turn the markets to the upside it failed and pushed lower to 966.00. Once more markets held at the support levels, the SP bounced back to 970.25. Then, the index backed off, bounced to 970.50, tested 967.75 and pushed up to 972.25. After holding there and with not selling coming into the markets, the SP pushed higher to 975.50. Once it broke higher, the SP reached 978.25, pulled back to 971.50 and bounced once more into the close. For the day, the SP lost 4.00 points and settled at 976.00, the Nasdaq closed marginally higher at 1601.50 and the Russell closed almost unchanged for the day. The Dow lost 12 points finishing the day at 9096.
.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “Yesterday’s session was the first one in which all the markets were under pressure, the back and forth action finally turned markets higher posting their closes near the daily highs, the intraday highs, because the Globex highs remained intact during all the day. As we look for signs of a correction I have mentioned that every time that the indexes close at their highs, some exhaustion seem to be present, but yesterday’s action seems to signal some accumulation that will get resolved pushing the markets higher, the SP may be able to trade above the 1000.00 level, another wide range positive session may be seen. Obviously, in this business everything is a possibility, not a “must”, so my work at this moment is to look for signs of weakness, of a turnaround in the trend, and those signs are not present.”


Every time that a market close on the high, there is the chance that the move has exhausted, Monday’s close posted a high, that, I still think is not the last high, but held the uptrend during yesterday’s session. While I look for signs of a correction and I see the action during the last two sessions, I still can not call a high; the action looks more like a consolidation that may give bulls a chance to regroup in order to press higher reaching at least the 1000.00 area on the SP.
But the chart is the only valid tool, and if we consider yesterday’s negative close as the first down day of a correction, I may recall that a profit taking move can not exceed more than 3-4 trading sessions or the chances that a short term top has been posted will be in play. My favorite scenario continues to be bullish, the great come back seen on the Nasdaq which has been the leading force in this rally was impressive during yesterday’s session, and unless that index starts to trade lower, I don’t see a reason why higher prices won’t be seen.
I don’t want to repeat on every report the possible ways in which this Bull Run may finish, but if today’s trading session is a wide range negative one and the next day the markets fail to push higher, then chances are that we’ll see a greater correction.
Meanwhile unless that happens, buying the dips continues to be the way to go, during today’s trading session, more volatility may be seen, late in the session we have the latest Fed’s beige Book report, certainly that will move the markets.
For today’s trading session, beware of selling pressure if the SP starts to trade below 968.50, but don’t fight the direction coming from the NQ, if everything works as expected, new highs may be seen today.







TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at 978.50-980.25 on the SP, 1604.00-1606.00 on the Nasdaq and 551.40-552.30 on the Russell, failing to break above them could indicate another negative session, but if the markets are strong they may reach 983.00-984.50 on the SP, 1610.00-1612.00 on the Nasdaq and 554.10-555.00 on the Russell. If those get exceeded, look for new buying pushing the indexes up to 987.00-988.00 on the SP, 1616.00-1618.00 on the Nasdaq and 557.20-558.50 on the Russell.
There is support at 974.50-973.00 on the SP, 1596.00-1594.00 on the on the Nasdaq and 547.80-546.90 on the Russell. Nothing good happens if those can not hold, the profit taking attempt seen yesterday could gain some momentum pushing the markets down top 971.00-969.00 on the SP, 1591.50-1590.00 on the Nasdaq and 544.20-543.80 on the Russell. If buyers do not step there, look for a test of 965.00-963.00 on the SP, 1586.00-1585.00 on the Nasdaq and 541.50-540.10 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK



TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 990.50-992.00 1623.50-1625.00 563.40-565.10
Resistance 3 987.00-988.00 1616.00-1618.00 557.20-558.50
Resistance 2 983.00-984.50 1610.00-1612.00 554.10-555.00-
Resistance 1 978.50-980.25 1604.00-1606.00 551.40-552.30
PIVOT 974.50 1597.00 547.70
Support 1 974.50-973.00 1596.00-1594.00 547.80-546.90
Support 2 971.00-969.00 1591.50-1590.00 544.20-543.80
Support 3 965.00-963.00 1586.00-1585.00 541.50-540.10
Support 4 959.00-958.50 1578.00-1576.00 537.90-536.70





S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1047.38 1720.63 593.4
1022.08 1677.38 577.4
1006.58 1650.88 567.6
997.00 1634.50 561.5
991.08 1624.38 557.8
981.50 1608.00 551.7
975.58 1597.88 548.0
973.75 1594.75 546.8
971.92 1591.62 545.6
966.00 1581.50 541.9
956.42 1565.12 535.8
950.50 1555.00 532.1
940.92 1538.62 526.0
925.42 1512.12 516.2
900.13 1468.88 500.3








DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 978.75 1618.00 555.60
AS DAILY LOW 963.50 1591.50 545.80​










Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
 
DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 30-July-2009



Durable Good orders down 2.5%, overseas markets sell off and Fed’s Beige book pointing that some stabilization has been seen in some regions gave way to a narrow range session with moderate ,losses.


ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM Initial Claims


YESTERDAY’S MARKET
After trading under pressure during the Globex session, the E-mini SP started the day at 969.50 and after testing 968.50 it bounced to 971.00, unable to break higher and with the other indexes under pressure, the SP pulled back to 966.50, just above yesterday’s lows. The index held, and leaded by the NQ it pushed up all the way to 975.00, the short covering rally failed and the SP pulled back to 969.00 and after two failed attempt to break above 973.00 it sold off to 966.25, just above the previous session low. While trading in the range, the SP bounced to 972.00 and as the release of the Beige book approached the index pushed lower to a new marginal low at 965.25. Once more the SP held and bounced to 970.50, but after holding near that area, it failed and pushed lower to 965.50 from where a late rally started. The SP and the other markets came back, for the session, the SP lost 1.00 point and settled at 975.00, the Nasdaq ended lower by 1.50 points at 1600.00 and the Russell lost 2.10 points finishing the session at 547.50. The Dow lost 26 points closing the session at 9070.
.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “But the chart is the only valid tool, and if we consider yesterday’s negative close as the first down day of a correction, I may recall that a profit taking move can not exceed more than 3-4 trading sessions or the chances that a short term top has been posted will be in play. My favorite scenario continues to be bullish, the great come back seen on the Nasdaq which has been the leading force in this rally was impressive during yesterday’s session, and unless that index starts to trade lower, I don’t see a reason why higher prices won’t be seen. Meanwhile unless that happens, buying the dips continues to be the way to go, during today’s trading session, more volatility may be seen, late in the session we have the latest Fed’s beige Book report, certainly that will move the markets.”


Downside pressure and narrow trading ranges continued to be what the markets showed during the last two sessions. Once more the session saw some sell off attempts that get resolved with limited bounces that at the end pushed the markets to a close with only moderate losses.
Monday the market closed slightly higher and at the highs, giving way to some short term exhaustion, Tuesday and Wednesday, the indexes stood under pressure, they failed to trade settlement, a bearish sign, but the selling pressure failed to gain the necessary momentum, the opposite, some buying was seen on the pullbacks. The 3-4 session pullbacks that I wrote about is taking place in perfect order, markets are struggling to push down, HOWEVER, the SP is trading against Monday’s high and all the time that that level does not get exceeded, there is chance of a stronger correction. The Nasdaq, the stronger of all the indexes, have found strong resistance at the 1600.00-1608.00 band.
So the markets are at an important point, or they continue with this rally, or they start to trade down calling a short term top. For the rally to resume, markets may avoid a wide range negative session, which will look problematic for the bulls, if it happens, it could be followed by a failed rally and a new low, and then the rally may be over. On the other side of the coin, this narrow range sessions will have to get resolved with a wide range session, and if the indexes break higher, then the way will be open for the SP to test the 1000.00 area and higher. The conclusion is that despite the toping signs, the uptrend remains intact and in a strong position.
Today’s trading session is very important, even that a definition of this consolidation could take a few more days, the move could happen today. During the last sessions we have not seen a trend session, so if today, a low or a high are posted during the first 60 minutes of the session, don’0t fight the trend, stay with it.

TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at 975.50-977.00 on the SP, 1602.75-1604.00 on the Nasdaq and 549.10-550.50 on the Russell, all the time that the markets are trading below them, shorts area quite, but if the indexes break higher look for a test of Monday’s highs at 979.00-980.50 on the SP, 1608.25-1610.00 on the Nasdaq and 551.80-552.40 on the Russell. If finally bulls regain control, look for the markets to press higher reaching 983.50-984.00 on the SP, 1613.50-1615.00 on the Nasdaq and 554.80-556.10 on the Russell.


There is support at 973.00-972.00 on the SP, 1596.00-1594.50 on the on the Nasdaq and 545.70-544.40 on the Russell. If the markets trade lower look for a test of the important 970.00-968.50 on the SP, 1591.00-1589.00 on the Nasdaq and 542.10-541.20 on the Russell. I think I already wrote it during the week, if those hold, we could see a good rally to new highs, but if that not happens and the intraday selling pressure continues, look for the markets to push lower and reach 965.00-963.50 on the SP, 1582.00-1581.00 on the Nasdaq and 539.00-538.20 on the Russell. A close below those areas that does not get reversed the next session could give way to lower prices during the next few days. GOOD LUCK.



TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 988.50-989.50 1624.00-1625.00 558.50-559.80
Resistance 3 983.50-984.00 1613.50-1615.00 554.80-556.10
Resistance 2 979.00-980.50 1608.25-1610.00 551.80-552.40
Resistance 1 975.50-977.00 1602.75-1604.00 549.10-550.50
PIVOT 971.50 1596.75 546.50
Support 1 973.00-972.00 1596.00-1594.50 545.70-544.40
Support 2 970.00-968.50 1591.00-1589.00 542.10-541.20
Support 3 965.00-963.50 1582.00-1581.00 539.00-538.20
Support 4 961.00-959.50 1575.00-1573.00 535.60-534.80





S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1047.38 1720.63 593.4
1022.08 1677.38 577.4
1006.58 1650.88 567.6
997.00 1634.50 561.5
991.08 1624.38 557.8
981.50 1608.00 551.7
975.58 1597.88 548.0
973.75 1594.75 546.8
971.92 1591.62 545.6
966.00 1581.50 541.9
956.42 1565.12 535.8
950.50 1555.00 532.1
940.92 1538.62 526.0
925.42 1512.12 516.2
900.13 1468.88 500.3
















DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 978.75 1618.00 555.60
AS DAILY LOW 963.50 1591.50 545.80​







Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
 
DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 31-July-2009



Initial claims at 584K, Continuing Claims slightly lower and GE upgrade gave way to a strong rally


ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM GDP- adv.
8:30 AM Core PCE
8:30 AM Chain Deflator-adv.
8:30 AM Employment Cost Index
9:45 AM Chicago PMI


YESTERDAY’S MARKET
Markets rallied during the night giving way to a strong opening, the E-mini SP started the session at 984.00 and after pulling back to 982.00 it bounced to 985.25. Unable to push above the Globex highs, the index pulled back to 981.00 from where it rallied to 986.25, once that level get exceeded, the index rallied to 991.00. After a small pullback to 988.75 the markets spike, the SP reached 992.50 and the NQ 1629.25. As shorts continued to cover, the SP reached 994.00. After holding near the highs and with some signs of toping, the SP pulled back to 987.00. The SP slowly bounced and reached 892.00 just to pullback once more but holding the sideways pattern. After a few attempts to break above the 992.50 and during the last hour of the session the profit taking move pushed the index down to 986.00 from where the index bounced a couple of points just to get sold reaching 982.25. A bounce attempt failed and the index closed at the early lows, for the day, the SP closed higher by 7.00 points at 982.00, the Nasdaq added 6.25 points and settled at 1607.00 and the Russell closed higher by 7.30 points at 554.90. The Dow closed up by 83 points at 9154.
.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “Monday the market closed slightly higher and at the highs, giving way to some short term exhaustion, Tuesday and Wednesday, the indexes stood under pressure, they failed to trade settlement, a bearish sign, but the selling pressure failed to gain the necessary momentum, the opposite, some buying was seen on the pullbacks. The 3-4 session pullbacks that I wrote about is taking place in perfect order, markets are struggling to push down, HOWEVER, the SP is trading against Monday’s high and all the time that that level does not get exceeded, there is chance of a stronger correction. The Nasdaq, the stronger of all the indexes, have found strong resistance at the 1600.00-1608.00 band. So the markets are at an important point, or they continue with this rally, or they start to trade down calling a short term top. For the rally to resume, markets may avoid a wide range negative session, which will look problematic for the bulls, if it happens, it could be followed by a failed rally and a new low, and then the rally may be over. On the other side of the coin, this narrow range sessions will have to get resolved with a wide range session, and if the indexes break higher, then the way will be open for the SP to test the 1000.00 area and higher. The conclusion is that despite the toping signs, the uptrend remains intact and in a strong position..”



Markets opened with a strong gap, pushed higher and sold off into the last hour of the session closing ina short term downtrend.
During the last few sessions I have mentioned that one of the ways in which a move could get exhausted is by a wide opening gap in the same direction of the trend that gets reversed during the same trading session, despite that the markets did not closed on the red, this scenario has the chances to be valid. On the other side, the strong rally may get consolidated an another attempt to reach yesterday’s highs may be seen, so under this circumstances, if the opening is quite we could see some back and forth action as the markets work yesterday’s move.
Taking into account that it is end of month, yesterday’s sell off may continue giving way to some ptrofit taking, the same happened during the end of last month. So the resistance areas, the previous highs around 985.00-976.50 will be important for today’s trading session, I can consider that all the time that the SP is trading below that level we could see some additional downside move. The best case that I can see for this end of month, and with all the economic numbers to get released before the opening is a narrow range session where the markets close around yesterday’s levels.
It is very important to point that a possible top has been posted, but once more, only a correction that exceeds more than four trading session or a wide downside session that fail the next day to trade above the previous close will be a clear indicator that the rally is over.
TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at 984.00-986.00 on the SP, 1610.00-1612.00 on the Nasdaq and 556.80-558.20 on the Russell, nothing good happens all the time that the markets are trading below these levels, if they fail there, the profit taking, end of month may continue, but once they get exceeded the indexes may be able to reach 988.50-990.00 on the SP, 1616.00-1617.50 on the Nasdaq and 560.60-562.90 on the Russell, above them a visit to yesterday’s high may be seen.

There is support at 980.00-978.00 on the SP, 1602.50-1600.00 on the on the Nasdaq and 556.80-558.20 on the Russell. Breaking below them could accelerate the downtrend, the next support areas are at 974.00-973.00 on the SP, 1588.00-1586.00 on the Nasdaq and 551.20-549.80 on the Russell. If those fail, then the KEY levels on the SP at 971.00-969.50 may get tested. GOOD LUCK.



TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 998.25-999.00 1635.50-1636.00 570.40-571.30
Resistance 3 993.00-993.50 1624.00-1626.00 564.20-566.10
Resistance 2 988.50-990.00 1616.00-1617.50 560.60-562.90
Resistance 1 984.00-986.00 1610.00-1612.00 556.80-558.20
PIVOT 983.25 1612.50 555.30
Support 1 980.00-978.00 1602.50-1600.00 554.00-552.60
Support 2 974.00-973.00 1596.00-1594.00 551.20-549.80
Support 3 971.00-969.50 1588.00-1586.00 547.10-546.20
Support 4 965.00-963.00 1579.00-1578.00 541.80-540.20





S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1081.13 1772.25 627.0
1047.67 1718.39 602.3
1027.17 1685.39 587.2
1014.50 1665.00 577.9
1006.67 1652.39 572.1
994.00 1632.00 562.8
986.17 1619.39 557.0
983.75 1615.50 555.3
981.33 1611.61 553.5
973.50 1599.00 547.7
960.83 1578.61 538.4
953.00 1566.00 532.6
940.33 1545.61 523.3
919.83 1512.61 508.2
886.38 1458.75 483.5









DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 998.25 1635.50 566.70
AS DAILY LOW 977.75 1602.50 551.60​












Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
 
DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 06-August-2009


ADP Employment data which measures the private jobs market down another 371K jobs, ISM services down to 46.4 and June factory Orders up .4% gave way to a profit taking session. The SP held above the 1000.00 mark. After hours: CISCO revenue and earnings decline.



ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM Initial Claims



YESTERDAY’S MARKET
After making its highs at 1006.50 during the Globex session, the E-mini SP started the day at 1003.75 and pulled back to 1000.50 from where a bounce to 1004.00 failed to break up giving way to an early profit taking move. The index fell reaching 991.75, then, bounced to 995.75, backed off to anew marginal low at 991.25 and held bouncing to 996.25. Unable to break higher and with the Nasdaq under strong pressure, the SP traded on a narrow range that finally made a few failed attempts to break higher reaching 997.00, after pulling back to 992.75 it bounced back to 998.00 where it held and after a feeble set back it rallied to 1003.75 where the short covering rally ended. The SP pulled back to 998.25 just to bounce back into the end of the session. For the day, the SP lost 4.00 points and settled at 1000.75, the Nasdaq ended lower by 16.00 points at 1614.25 and the Russell gave back 5.30 points finishing the session at 565.40. The Dow closed lower by
.

.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Last Friday I wrote: “Yesterday’s consolidating session is something normal after big moves, like the one that we saw last Monday where the SP was able to trade above the 1000.00 mark. Despite the fact that during the last two weeks I was writing about the possibilities that the SP will test the 1000.00 area, I am really surprised that the pullbacks that happened during the last two weeks have been very limited. We know that this strong rally is based in expectations of better economic indicators, this summer rally has been able to hold in price and time, and that makes very difficult to take a short position. However, the wide up gap opening sessions, the several closes near the daily highs, not only indicate that the trend is strong, they also indicate that the rally may be on its exhausting phase, at some point we will have to get a wider correction. But the trend is strong and intact, and if SP may be able to reach the 1008.00, and if that does not place a temporal top, then 1038.00 or even 1060.00 may be seen before this rally is over.”


Markets traded under pressure during all the session, the weakest of the indexes was the Nasdaq which has been the leading index in this rally. Despite the sell off attempts, the SP only broke by three ticks the previous session lows, we can consider it a double bottom, on the other side, the highs were posted during the Globex session, just at my first resistance areas, and they should get tested in the next few days, obviously if the trend is still to the upside.
In the same way that we have seen during the last two weeks, any pullback or sell off attempt has been a buying opportunity, and despite that traders may be cautious or even take some profits in front of next Friday important job market numbers, the trend remains intact and in a strong position, any pullback that manages to hold the 963.00 area on the SP and 9000 on the Dow should be considered a buying opportunity.
So taking into account that players may be waiting for next Friday data, and that new money continues to enter into the markets on any pullback, and that trapped shorts are desperate to cover, more sideways trading, another session of consolidation may be seen, however, the key seems to be in the Nasdaq and if that index starts to trade below the 1596.00 area followed by the SP below 986.50, the correction may get a bit more extended in price and time, this we will only know next Friday.
For today’s trading session, early weakness has resulted in good short covering rallies, if the CISCO news does not give way to a strong sell off, then, as yesterday, the first hour lows may get bought, but be careful if the SP starts to trade below 988.00 where I may be a buyer with stops just below the 986.50 areas.







TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance above yesterday’s late highs at 1002.50-1004.50 on the SP, 1618.00-1620.00 on the Nasdaq and 1618.00-1620.00 on the Russell. If those get reached during the first hour of the session and the markets fail to break above them look for the indexes to trade in the same range as yesterday, but if those surrender, then the SP may be able to reach my 1007.00-1008.00 first upside objective levels, those may coincide with 1624.00-1625.00 on the Nasdaq and 570.80-571.90 on the Russell. If those do not hold a strong short covering move in front of Friday’s data, then the rally may reach 1012.00-1014.00 on the SP, 1629.50-1631.50 on the Nasdaq and 574.20-575.00 on the Russell.


There is support at yesterday’s late resistance at 999.00-997.50 on the SP, 1610.00-1608.00 on the Nasdaq and 564.20-563.00 on the Russell. If the opening is below those levels, once more, they may act as good resistance areas during the session, so the markets may be considered weak on an intraday base below those levels, if that is the case and they trade below them, a visit to the short term support levels at 994.50-992.50 on the SP, 1604.00-1602.00 on the Nasdaq and 560.00-558.20 on the Russell may happen. If the markets trade below them and then turn back above, it may be a good idea to go long with tight stops, but if they fail, then the next areas are at 989.00-988.00 on the SP, 1598.00-1596.00 on the Nasdaq and 555.40-554.10 on the Russell. If those do not hold, I may consider not trying and catching an intraday bottom. GOOD LUCK.






TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1021.50-1022.00 1638.00-1640.00 578.20-579.50
Resistance 3 1012.00-1014.00 1629.50-1631.50 574.20-575.00
Resistance 2 1007.00-1008.00 1624.00-1625.00 570.80-571.90
Resistance 1 1002.50-1004.50 1618.00-1620.00 567.20-568.40
PIVOT 999.50 1616.00 565.20
Support 1 999.00-997.50 1610.00-1608.00 564.20-563.00
Support 2 994.50-992.50 1604.00-1602.00 560.00-558.20
Support 3 989.00-988.00 1598.00-1596.00 555.40-554.10
Support 4 986.00-984.00 1591.00-1589.50 552.10-551.50



S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1071.31 1754.75 627.3
1046.42 1707.42 605.9
1031.17 1678.42 592.8
1021.75 1660.50 584.7
1015.92 1649.42 579.7
1006.50 1631.50 571.6
1000.67 1620.42 566.6
998.88 1617.00 565.1
997.08 1613.58 563.5
991.25 1602.50 558.5
981.83 1584.58 550.4
976.00 1573.50 545.4
966.58 1555.58 537.3
951.33 1526.58 524.2
926.44 1479.25 502.8
















DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1003.50 1623.00 568.80
AS DAILY LOW 988.00 1594.00 555.70​










Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
 
DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 07-August-2009


Initial claims down to 550K and CISCO earnings gave way to a weak session.



ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM Average workweek
8:30 AM Hourly Earnings
8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls
8:30 AM Unemployment rate
2:00 PM Consumer Credit


YESTERDAY’S MARKET
After trading at new highs during the Globex session, the E-mini SP started the day at 1003.00. After bouncing to 1005.75, sellers stepped in and pushed the markets down, the SP fell all the way to 992.75 where the move lost its momentum, just above the double top posted at that level during the last two sessions. Then the index bounced and reached 999.00 from where it backed off to 996.00, after trying to break above 997.00, the index pulled back to 993.00. unable to make a new low, the SP pushed up to 997.75 but didn’t gain the expected momentum to push higher, after pulling back to 994.00 markets finally give up and posted new lows, the SP reached 989.75. The SP held the important 988.00 level and it bounced all the way up to 996.25 just to pullback once more closing with moderate losses. For the day, the SP lost 5.75 points and settled at 995.00, the Nasdaq lost 14.50 points finishing the session at 1600.00 and the Russell closed lower by 8.80 points at 557.10. the Dow lost 24 points and finished the day at 9256.
.

.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Last Friday I wrote: “In the same way that we have seen during the last two weeks, any pullback or sell off attempt has been a buying opportunity, and despite that traders may be cautious or even take some profits in front of next Friday important job market numbers, the trend remains intact and in a strong position, any pullback that manages to hold the 963.00 area on the SP and 9000 on the Dow should be considered a buying opportunity. So taking into account that players may be waiting for next Friday data, and that new money continues to enter into the markets on any pullback, and that trapped shorts are desperate to cover, more sideways trading, another session of consolidation may be seen, however, the key seems to be in the Nasdaq and if that index starts to trade below the 1596.00 area followed by the SP below 986.50, the correction may get a bit more extended in price and time, this we will only know next Friday. For today’s trading session, early weakness has resulted in good short covering rallies, if the CISCO news does not give way to a strong sell off, then, as yesterday, the first hour lows may get bought, but be careful if the SP starts to trade below 988.00 where I may be a buyer with stops just below the 986.50 areas.”


Markets get reversed from their Globex highs just at my resistance areas, 1008.00 on the SP and 1625.00 on the NQ, the rebound attempts failed, but the KEY 988.00 area on the SP and the 1596.00 on the NQ held.
In the same way that the markets have reached strong resistance levels, the support areas have been able to hold consolidating the last two week rally, and at this moment traders holding long positions, or short players may be ready for a strong breakout, which direction? I still think that the SP may be able to reach, during the day, the 1008.00 area, and I still think that it will probably push higher, to the 1038.00 level that I mentioned in one of my past commentaries. However, yesterday’s move where a new low was posted on the NQ indicate the chances for a wide range downside session, only that will indicate that short term top has been posted, any other move, like the ones we saw during the last three days, indicate a lack of buying at these levels but not a turn down in the markets.
Today, the unemployment numbers will get released before the opening, it seems that traders are optimistic as the markets have been able to hold at reasonable high levels, so any good surprise could give way to a strong opening and an uptrend session; on the other side of the coin, if traders do not cheer the report, then a strong profit taking move could be seen. In my opinion, it will be difficult to play the long side if the SP trades below the 988.00 area, but an early sell off that found support around 984.00 could give way to a strong bounce. Take into account that if the NQ does not hold the 1580.00 area, the downside could gain additional momentum pushing that index down to 1560.00









TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at 996.50-998.25 on the SP, 1604.00-1605.50 on the Nasdaq and 559.50-561.10 on the Russell. If those get exceeded look for the markets to make an attempt to reach 1001.50-1002.50 on the SP, 1610.00-1612.00 on the Nasdaq and 563.00-565.00 on the Russell, trading above them will indicate a test of the SP intraday highs at 1005.00-1005.50

There is support at 993.00-991.75 on the SP, 1595.50-1594.00 on the Nasdaq and 555.70-554.40 on the Russell, failing there could push the markets down to yesterday’s lows at 989.00-987.50 on the SP, a new low at 1590.50-1588.00 on the Nasdaq and 551.20-549.80 on the Russell. If buyers do not step in at those levels, be careful with any long trade. GOOD LUCK.






TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1009.75-1010.50 1627.50-1630.00 574.60-575.10
Resistance 3 1005.00-1005.50 1617.00-1618.50 568.60-570.40
Resistance 2 1001.50-1002.50 1610.00-1612.00 563.00-565.00
Resistance 1 996.50-998.25 1604.00-1605.50 559.50-561.10
PIVOT 997.50 1606.00 560.20
Support 1 993.00-991.75 1595.50-1594.00 555.70-554.40
Support 2 989.00-987.50 1590.50-1588.00 551.20-549.80
Support 3 984.00-983.00 1582.00-1580.00 547.10.545.40
Support 4 981.00-989.50 1574.00-1572.00 542.90-541.70



S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1071.31 1754.75 627.3
1046.42 1707.42 605.9
1031.17 1678.42 592.8
1021.75 1660.50 584.7
1015.92 1649.42 579.7
1006.50 1631.50 571.6
1000.67 1620.42 566.6
998.88 1617.00 565.1
997.08 1613.58 563.5
991.25 1602.50 558.5
981.83 1584.58 550.4
976.00 1573.50 545.4
966.58 1555.58 537.3
951.33 1526.58 524.2
926.44 1479.25 502.8
















DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1003.50 1623.00 568.80
AS DAILY LOW 988.00 1594.00 555.70​












Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
 
DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 10-August-2009


Unemployment Rate at 9.4% and Nonfarm Payrolls minus 247K gave way to a strong rally keeping the uptrend intact


WEEKLY PIVOTS FOR WEEK ENDING 14-August-2009
R3 1035.50
R2 1021.00
R1 1012.50
PP 1001.50
S1 987.00
S2 957.50
S3 953.00


ECONOMIC DATA
None


WEEKLY RECAP
Bullishness continued during last week giving way to new highs on the indexes. Monday’s trading session was received with better than expected economic data, ISM Manufacturing Index was up to 48.9, Construction Spending increased by 0.3% and Ford sales of light vehicles were up 1.6 percent in July, all this gave way to new highs on the U.S. equity markets, the SP closed above 1000.00 for the first time in this year. As the markets traded at new highs and with sidelines money ready to join the move, Tuesday’s sell off attempt failed to gain momentum giving way to higher prices, Personal Income was down 1.3% but Personal Spending reported up .4% also, Pending Home Sales came out with a surprising 3.6% increase, the session consolidated Monday’s rally and markets pushed to new highs into the close, the SP closed at its daily high at 1005.00, the Nasdaq ended higher by 3.50 points at 1630.75 and the Russell gained 7.90 points finishing the session at 550.80. The Dow added 33 points closing at 9320. Wednesday’s session markets continued to consolidate, the most recent lows around the 990.00 area were tested and the SP fluctuated during the session. On the economic news, the ADP Employment data which measures the private jobs market came out with more job losses 371K jobs, this was lower than expected, the ISM services was down to 46.4 and June factory Orders up .4% giving way to a profit taking session. The SP held above the 1000.00 mark, but closed lower for the session. For the day, the SP lost 4.00 points and settled at 1000.75, the Nasdaq ended lower by 16.00 points at 1614.25 and the Russell gave back 5.30 points finishing the session at 565.40. Same Wednesday, after the close, CISCO reported lower revenue and earnings; this gave way to a nightly sell off attempt, however, the opening was neutral, but the markets stood under pressure for most of Thursday’s session. The weekly unemployment initial claims came out a bit lower than the previous week and the markets managed to close with moderate losses as they waited for Friday’s monthly jobs reports. Friday, traders cheered a surprisingly better than expected July jobs market report, the Unemployment rate at 9.4% and the Nonfarm payrolls which showed “only” a loss of 247K jobs gave way to a strong rally as the markets posted new highs. However some profit taking was seen into the end of the day, the SP added 11.00 points and settled at 1006.00, the Nasdaq closed higher by 18.00 points at 1619.25 and the Russell added 11.40 points finishing the week at 568.70. The Dow closed higher by 113 points at 9370. most of the major indexes closed the week with gains above the 2.0%.





FRIDAY’S MARKET
After trading slightly lower during the Globex session, markets soared with the release of the monthly unemployment report, the E-mini SP started the session at 1004.50, and after testing the most recent highs at 1007.75 it pulled back to 999.50 where the profit taking attempt failed. The index traded in an uptrend that managed to break above the 1008.00 key resistance area and continued to push higher reaching 1013.00. A double top at that level gave way to a pullback to the 1008.00 which showed strong support giving way to a slow upward move that reached 1016.00. Finally after sitting for a long period near the highs, the SP backed off to 1012.00 from where it did not managed to come back and traded lower into the end of the session. For the day the SP added 11.00 points and settled at 1006.00, the Nasdaq closed higher by 18.00 points at 1619.25 and the Russell added 11.40 points finishing the week at 568.70. The Dow closed higher by 113 points at 9370.
.

.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Last Friday I wrote: “In the same way that the markets have reached strong resistance levels, the support areas have been able to hold consolidating the last two week rally, and at this moment traders holding long positions, or short players may be ready for a strong breakout, which direction? I still think that the SP may be able to reach, during the day, the 1008.00 area, and I still think that it will probably push higher, to the 1038.00 level that I mentioned in one of my past commentaries. However, yesterday’s move where a new low was posted on the NQ indicate the chances for a wide range downside session, only that will indicate that short term top has been posted, any other move, like the ones we saw during the last three days, indicate a lack of buying at these levels but not a turn down in the markets. Today, the unemployment numbers will get released before the opening, it seems that traders are optimistic as the markets have been able to hold at reasonable high levels, so any good surprise could give way to a strong opening and an uptrend session; on the other side of the coin, if traders do not cheer the report, then a strong profit taking move could be seen. In my opinion, it will be difficult to play the long side if the SP trades below the 988.00 area, but an early sell off that found support around 984.00 could give way to a strong bounce. Take into account that if the NQ does not hold the 1580.00 area, the downside could gain additional momentum pushing that index down to 1560.00.”



Markets rallied on the Unemployment news but showed good profit taking into the close. It is very difficult to call a top under the current circumstances in which on any pullback, investors join the market. What they call “sidelines money” keeps enter into the markets pushing the indexes higher. Markets have the tendency to exaggerate their moves, and maybe, this last leg does not have much more to go. There is something that is starting to give me an uncomfortable feeling, however, there is not evidence of trending lower, but long traders may start to be skeptical about the extension in price and time that this rally can show in the near time.
I am not taking about a strong correction; first, the index has to post a double top or lower high, or a wide range downside session that gives way to a rebound attempt just to fail posting a lower low the next trading session, or just a wide range negative session that shows some follow through.
If that happens, we will then be at the point of a first degree correction, which means three to four consecutive sessions in which the markets close lower, but without struggling to push down, a move with good downside momentum. I don’t want to extend more the analysis of what can happen next because there will be a few possibilities, so I will talk about it when it starts to happen.
Also, there is a bearish divergence taking place on the Nasdaq, that index has not been able to make a new high, but also in this market, the index is holding at high prices without showing evidences that it could start to trend down. In this market, I would like to see a wide range downside session before I jump in the short side for more than a small trade.
On the other side, obviously selling the new highs has given some profits to the very short term traders, but position traders, those who hold their shorts for more than the intraday session, maybe they have a break even trade, the market has extended the uptrend electing stops and pushing out the weak shorts, the long side has been “solid gold” for those who jumped on this upside trend.
This coming week, traders will concentrate in the FED which will deliver its policies on next Wednesday, retailers, major retailers including Wal-Mart will report results, later in the week, July retail sales that may come out with a decline, but “not as worst expected” or showing some signs of stabilization, later, on Friday, CPI and the Michigan Sentiment Index.
For today’s trading session they won’t be any economic reports, my expectations are for the markets to try and hold pushing up for a test of last Friday’s high. However, two side actions, with the markets showing a narrow range session as they consolidate the last move may be seen. But if the markets start to trade below 998.00 on the SP, 1607.50 on the Nasdaq and 561.60 on the Russell, we could see some selling coming into the markets and the way to a wide range downside session opened, if this happens, I may change my slightly bullish bias.



TODAY’S SESSION
There is at 1008.50-1009.50 on the SP, 1624.00-1625.50 on the Nasdaq and 571.00-571.50 on the Russell. If the markets do not break above them or those get rejected, try to play the short side until they get exceeded, if that happens, then the test of the recent highs at 1013.50-1015.25 on the SP, 1630.50-1633.00 on the Nasdaq and 574.10-575.20 on the Russell is probable. Beware of a double top up there, but trading above them will force some more short covering pushing the markets up to 1020.00-1021.00 on the SP, 1637.00-1638.50 on the Nasdaq and 579.30-581.50 on the Russell.



There is support at 1004.00-1003.00 on the SP, 1615.50-1613.00 on the Nasdaq and 566.20-564.60 on the Nasdaq. If the indexes opened above them they should act as good support for the first pullback, but once they get violated, the markets may push lower for a test of the 1000.50-998.50, 1610.00-1607.50 and 562.60-561.60 areas respectively for the three indexes. If those hold, I want to be a small buyer; failing there will add momentum to de downtrend pushing the markets down to 993.00-992.00 on the SP, 1602.00-1600.50 on the Nasdaq and 556.40-555.60 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK.






TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1025.00-1025.50 1645.00-1646.50 584.50-585.10
Resistance 3 1020.50-1021.00 1637.00-1638.50 579.30-581.50
Resistance 2 1013.50-1015.25 1630.50-1633.00 574.10-575.20
Resistance 1 1008.50-1009.50 1624.00-1625.50 571.00-571.50
PIVOT 1004.00 1614.25 566-70
Support 1 1004.00-1003.00 1615.50-1613.00 566.20-564.60
Support 2 1000.50-998.50 1610.00-1607.50 562.60-561.60
Support 3 993.00-992.00 1602.00-1600.50 556.40-555.60
Support 4 988.50-987.00 1596.00-1594.00 543.80.541.20


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1126.50 1765.88 674.4
1084.07 1712.84 637.1
1058.07 1680.34 614.2
1042.00 1660.25 600.0
1032.07 1647.84 591.3
1016.00 1627.75 577.1
1006.07 1615.34 568.4
1003.00 1611.50 565.7
999.93 1607.67 562.9
990.00 1595.25 554.2
973.93 1575.17 540.0
964.00 1562.75 531.3
947.93 1542.67 517.1
921.93 1510.17 494.2
879.50 1457.13 456.9








DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1024.25 1640.00 584.50
AS DAILY LOW 998.00 1607.50 561.60​












Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
 
DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 12-August-2009



Productivity up 6.4%, the highest in more than six years, wholesale inventories down 1.7% and weakness on the financials gave way to a weak session.


ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM Trade balance
10:35 AM Crude Inventories
2:00 PM Treasury Budget
2:15 PM FOMC Policy Statements


YESTERDAY’S MARKET
Markets opened the session under selling pressure, the E-mini SP started the day at 1001.50 and pulled back to 998.75, another bouncing attempt failed at the opening price and the index broke down making new lows at 994.50. The selling stalled for a few minutes, the index bounced to 997.00 but the rebound turned to be another selling opportunity, the SP made all the way down to 990.00 where the selling lost its steam. Despite new lows on the Russell, the E-mini SP held several attempts to break lower, and after trading in a narrow range for more than two hours, finally the index broke back above the 994.00 reaching 995.75 and then 996.50 but failed to gain momentum and pulled back into the end of the close. For the day, the SP lost 14.50 points and settled at 993.00, the Nasdaq lost 16.00 points closing the session at 1596.50, and the Russell closed lower by 8.90 points at 562.40. The Dow lost 96 points closing at 9241.0
.

.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Last Friday I wrote: “By the way the markets are trading I can assume that the recent rally may have not ended yet, the fact that the NQ has not made a new high, a red warning, and that may be forming a round top, is a reason for some concern, but that index, which has been the leading force in the rally has not seen a wide range downside session and it keeps showing support at high levels, if the NQ starts to push higher as a consequence of holding the near term support areas, the SP may make its way to the 1038.00 level. We have to take into consideration some of the time cycles; I normally follow the 30, 60 and 90 days cycles, and the recent rally started around July 10th, so it has found resistance at the 30 days time window which is perfect to show some consolidation or even a three to four days pullback. However, the trend is strong and intact, and it may be that traders are just regrouping in order to push higher if not Tuesday’s afternoon, then Wednesday when a FOMC policy statement will get released. After yesterday’s narrow range session, it will be normal to see a breakout attempt above or below yesterday’s highs and lows, I think the markets will try to show a rebound attempt, so I will stay with the long side as long as the NQ is trading in positive territory and the SP is holding above 998.50.”



Yesterday’s sell off and downtrend session falls in the time window in which a change on the trend or a correction may occur, this second straight negative session followed the bearish divergence that I have been describing in my previous reports.
Despite the recent weakness, the SP and Nasdaq managed to close above KEY short term support areas, the SP above the 992.00 level and the NQ at the 1596.00 level. This does not mean that the correction, profit taking move has finished, but holding the current areas will indicate the strength of the trend. Also, the Nasdaq has not showed a wide range downside session, typical in this inmdex when a top has been reached.
Friday’s failure to hold the gains, and Monday trading session in which the SP closed at the daily high and the sell off that took place yesterday look problematic on the charts, and if the markets won’t be able to bounce on the next 48 hours, a short term top that gives way to a wider correction or a sideways pattern could be seen before traders regroup to push higher or the markets finally start to give back some of the five month gains.
So markets are at an important juncture, at the first break or make point, and despite that we have an FED’s meeting that many times give way to false or erratic moves, this coming 48 hours area critical for the markets.
For today’s trading session, the early part of the session will depend on how the market opens and how the main indexes react to yesterday’s lows, trading below them will increase the chances of additional profit taking, but if the NQ is trading in positive territory and the SP manages to trade back above the 1000.00 area we may see some short covering during the first two hours. Once the first 2 hours of trading finish, the market should enter in a “Mexican Siesta or “midday sleep” period where nothing happens and everybody sleeps a couple of hours or go for and early lunch. Then 15-20 minutes before the announcement, the early move should get reversed as traders start to lighten positions. When the FOMC decision comes out, we should see three different moves during the next 40 minutes, an initial impulsive move that fails, a reversal of that move and the final trend move which is the one that we traders try to follow. So only if you have big bucks and wide stops get involve in the first two moves, but take into account that if you are lucky and you go in the right direction, be quick to take your profits. Anyway, stops must be wider than in a regular trading session.
Take also in account that many times the resulted move seen during the FOMC rate decision session gets reversed the next day starting a trend pattern that can last for a few days.
In conclusion, lets try to follow the NQ, in particular the long side IF both, the SP and Nasdaq are trading in positive territory, then later in the session, staying on the sidelines until the rate decision gets released may be the wiser thing to do.

TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at yesterday’s late highs around 995.00-996.75 on the SP, 1600.00-1602.00 on the Nasdaq and 565.20-566.60 on the Russell. Nothing good happens all the time that those areas remain intact; if the markets trade above them, look for the short covering move to take place pushing the markets up to 998.75-1000.25 on the SP, 1606.00-1607.00 on the Nasdaq and 569.10-570.00 on the Russell. I will be really surprised if an initial bounce manages to hold above them, but if the recent sell off was only a two-three day event expect the markets to trade back above these level in a solid way reaching 1004.50-1005.50 on the SP, 1614.00-1615.25 on the Nasdaq and 572.30-573.30 on the Russell.


There is KEY critical support at yesterday’s lows at 991.00-989.00 on the SP, 1593.00-1591.00 on the Nasdaq and 561.00-559.60 on the Russell, if those can not hold the initial selling pressure or they fail during the first 45 minutes of the trading session, look for the profit taking to continue pushing the indexes down to 987.00-985.50 on the SP, 1587.00-1586.50 on the Nasdaq and 556.40-555.30 on the Russell. If those hold we could see a good rebound, but if they fail the selling may continue for a test of the 981.50-981.00 areas on the SP, and 1582.00-1580.00 and 552.80-551.70 for the NQ and Russell respectively. GOOD LUCK.






TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1008.50-1009.50 1627.00-1628.00 575.50-576.20
Resistance 3 1004.50-1005.50 1614.00-1615.25 572.30-573.30
Resistance 2 998.75-1000.25 1606.00-1607.00 569.10-570.00
Resistance 1 995.00-996.75 1600.00-1602.00 565.20-566.60
PIVOT 998.00 1600.00 564.90
Support 1 991.00-989.00 1593.00-1591.00 561.00-559.60
Support 2 987.00-985.50 1587.00-1586.50 556.40-555.30
Support 3 981.50-981.00 1582.00-1580.00 552.80-551.70
Support 4 977.00-975.00 1574.00-1572.00 549.60-548.00


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1098.94 1753.75 638.8
1065.07 1701.53 613.9
1044.32 1669.53 598.6
1031.50 1649.75 589.1
1023.57 1637.53 583.3
1010.75 1617.75 573.8
1002.82 1605.53 568.0
1000.38 1601.75 566.2
997.93 1597.97 564.3
990.00 1585.75 558.5
977.18 1565.97 549.0
969.25 1553.75 543.2
956.43 1533.97 533.7
935.68 1501.97 518.4
901.81 1449.75 493.5







DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1001.75 1607.00 568.10
AS DAILY LOW 981.00 1575.00 552.80​












Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
 
DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 13-August-2009



FED leaves rates unchanged and stretch its long term bonds acquisitions which will end in October, recession easing. Markets rallied but gave back some of their gains.

ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM Initial Claims
8:30 AM Retail Sales
8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto
10:00 AM Business Inventories


YESTERDAY’S MARKET
With the markets fluctuating during the night, the E-mini SP started the session at 991.00 and immediately pushed up to 996.50 and then when the Nasdaq broke to new highs it reached 998.50. Easily, and leaded by the NQ, the SP continued to push higher reaching 1005.50. After a small pullback to 1003.00 and with continuing short covering, the SP made it to 1006.50. As traders waited for the FOMC Policy Statements release, the SP traded in a narrow range for a couple of hours in which it managed to push up to anew high at 1007.75. The index waited for the announcement near the intraday highs and once the news was out, the SP pulled back to 1003.00, after another test of the highs, the SP backed off to 1001.50 and bounced back to 1004.00. Once more sellers try to push lower but the SP held above the 1000.00 mark and rallied to 1011.25. After various attempts to break higher, the index pulled back to 1007.00, bounced once more and sold off into the end of the day. For the session, the SP added 9.25 points and settled at 1002.25, the Nasdaq closed higher by 22.25 at 1618.75 and the Russell added 8.00 points finishing the day at 570.40. The Dow closed at 9361 with a 120 point advance.
.

.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Last Friday I wrote: “Despite the recent weakness, the SP and Nasdaq managed to close above KEY short term support areas, the SP above the 992.00 level and the NQ at the 1596.00 level. This does not mean that the correction, profit taking move has finished, but holding the current areas will indicate the strength of the trend. Also, the Nasdaq has not showed a wide range downside session, typical in this index when a top has been reached. Friday’s failure to hold the gains, and Monday trading session in which the SP closed at the daily high and the sell off that took place yesterday look problematic on the charts, and if the markets won’t be able to bounce on the next 48 hours, a short term top that gives way to a wider correction or a sideways pattern could be seen before traders regroup to push higher or the markets finally start to give back some of the five month gains. So markets are at an important juncture, at the first break or make point, and despite that we have an FED’s meeting that many times give way to false or erratic moves, this coming 48 hours area critical for the markets. For today’s trading session, the early part of the session will depend on how the market opens and how the main indexes react to yesterday’s lows, trading below them will increase the chances of additional profit taking, but if the NQ is trading in positive territory and the SP manages to trade back above the 1000.00 area we may see some short covering during the first two hours. Once the first 2 hours of trading finish, the market should enter in a “Mexican Siesta or “midday sleep” period where nothing happens and everybody sleeps a couple of hours or go for and early lunch. In conclusion, let’s try to follow the NQ, in particular the long side IF both, the SP and Nasdaq are trading in positive territory, then later in the session, staying on the sidelines until the rate decision gets released may be the wiser thing to do.”



reacted well to the 992.00 and 1596.00 areas on the SP and NQ, and despite the new Globex lows below those areas, the opening was bought and shorts covered, once the intraday resistance areas at 998.50 and 1602.00 on the Nasdaq were exceeded, kit was all for the shorts.
Yesterday’s rally and late pullback in which the Nasdaq managed to test once more the recent highs and the SP closed once more above the 1000.00 mark keeps the uptrend intact, it also gives validity to my short term bullish scenario in which I considered that the high has not been posted yet.
The 1630.00-1632.00 area on the NQ has been the ceiling for that index during the last 20 days, and If this index manages to break up solidly I will expect a test of the 1680.00 area, but meanwhile it just keep spending time in a narrow daily trading range.
In one of the previous sessions, I wrote that one of the ways to put an end to this rally will be a sharp sell off followed by a rebound that fails to make a new high, I don’t think that the two days sell off that we saw and yesterday’s rally and late pullback prints this scenario, but I will closely follow the direction of the markets during the rest of the week. I also want to remind you that next week we have the August option expiration, normally a bullish week, so I think that new highs on the SP and Nasdaq will be printed on the charts during the next trading sessions.
Tomorrow, before the opening, we get the weekly initial jobless claims and the important Retail sales data, if those come out better than expected, the markets should try to push higher, either way, in my short term bullish scenario I will try to play the long side all the time that the 998.50 area on the SP holds and all the time that the Nasdaq is trading in positive territory.

TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at 1004.50-1006.50 on the SP, 1623.00-1625.00 on the Nasdaq and 572.20-573.90 on the Russell. Those have snowed good resistance during the last sessions, so if the markets will resume the downtrend, they won’t get exceeded by much, but if we have a consolidating session or a run to yesterday’s highs; look for the markets to reach 1009.25-1010.00 on the SP, 1629.50-1631.00 on the Nasdaq and 575.70-576.00 on the Russell. If the Nasdaq finally trades solidly above those areas look for the uptrend to gain additional momentum pushing the markets up to 1014.50-1016.00 on the SP, 1638.25-1639.00 on the Nasdaq and 579.10-580.50 on the Russell.



There may be strong support at 1000.00-997.50 on the SP, 1613.00-1610.50 on the Nasdaq and 568.10-566.90, trading below them will be a concern for those holding a long position, if that happens look for the markets to push lower testing 995.25-994.00 on the SP, 1605.00-1603.00 on the Nasdaq and 564.80-564.10 on the Russell. If the markets hold there, they may push up to a neutral close, but if those fail, then yesterday’s Globex lows at 988.00-987.50 on the SP, 1593.75-1592.00 on the Nasdaq and 559.80-558.30 on the Russell may get visited. GOOD LUCK:






TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1025.00-1025.50 1644.00-1645.00 583.50-585.00
Resistance 3 1014.50-1016.00 1638.25-1639.00 579.10-580.50
Resistance 2 1009.25-1010.00 1629.50-1631.00 575.70-576.00
Resistance 1 1004.50-1006.50 1623.00-1625.00 572.20-573.90
PIVOT 999.75 1613.25 568.60
Support 1 1000.00-997.50 1613.00-1610.50 568.10-566.90
Support 2 995.25-994.00 1605.00-1603.00 564.80-564.10
Support 3 988.00-987.50 1593.75-1592.00 559.80-558.30
Support 4 982.00-981.00 1576.00-1574.00 555.60-544.70


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1119.63 1831.38 659.3
1078.01 1755.49 627.8
1052.51 1708.99 608.5
1036.75 1680.25 596.6
1027.01 1662.49 589.2
1011.25 1633.75 577.3
1001.51 1615.99 569.9
998.50 1610.50 567.7
995.49 1605.01 565.4
985.75 1587.25 558.0
969.99 1558.51 546.1
960.25 1540.75 538.7
944.49 1512.01 526.8
918.99 1465.51 507.5
877.38 1389.63 476.0












DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1019.50 1649.50 583.50
AS DAILY LOW 994.00 1603.00 563.20​












Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
 
DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 17-August-2009



CPI unchanged; Industrial Production rises for first time since October 2008. Michigan sentiment falls giving way to an early sell off on concern the rally is overdone, markets closed in the red.



WEEKLY PIVOTS FOR WEEK ENDING 21-August-2009
R3 1032.00
R2 1019.00
R1 1011.25
PP 1002.50
S1 997.00
S2 989.00
S3 972.50


ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM NY Empire Manufacturing Index.


WEEKLY RECAP
Markets started the week under some profit taking pressure, with no economic news to get released, despite the selling pressure that was present during all the session, the indexes traded on a narrow range and posted a mixed close, for the day, the SP closed higher by one point at 1007.50, the Nasdaq lost 7.00 points and settled at 1612.75 and the Russell closed higher by 2.90 points at 571.80. The Dow lost 32 points and settled at 9337. Tuesday’s session was not better; Productivity reported a 6.4% increase, the highest in more than six years, wholesale inventories were down 1.7% and weakness on the financials kept the markets under pressure. For the day, the SP lost 14.50 points and settled at 993.00, the Nasdaq lost 16.00 points closing the session at 1596.50, and the Russell closed lower by 8.90 points at 562.40. The Dow lost 96 points closing at 9241. Tuesday’s close on the lows, after two days of weakness and with the FOMC Policy statements to get released late Wednesday, markets opened and started to push higher, the FED, leaved rates unchanged and stretched its long term bonds acquisitions which will end in October, also indicated that recession is easing. The rally was solid and strong but the markets gave back some of their earnings into the close. For the session, the SP added 9.25 points and settled at 1002.25, the Nasdaq closed higher by 22.25 at 1618.75 and the Russell added 8.00 points finishing the day at 570.40. The Dow closed at 9361 with a 120 point advance. Thursday was a bullish session, as stocks fluctuated during the day, the SP closed at its highest point and near the daily highs, the Nasdaq closed at its short term resistance area. On the economic and corporate news, Wal-Mart reported as expected, Retail Sales unexpectedly fell by .1%, Initial Claims climbed to 588K and Business Inventories were down 1.1%. For the day, the SP gained11.25 points and settled at 1013.50, the Nasdaq closed at 1631.50, up 12.75 points and the Russell added 5.30 points finishing the session at 575.60. The Dow closed higher by 36 points at 9398. Bulls get hammered during Friday’s session, Consumer prices came out unchanged, industrial Production rose for the first time since October 2008 but the Michigan sentiment preliminary report, which measures consumer confidence unexpectedly dropped for August to 63.2 from 66.0 in July. The earlier profit taking gained strong momentum and the markets sold off strongly, later in the session they managed to come back closing on the red. For the day, the SP lost 7.75 points and settled at 1005.75, the Nasdaq lost 16.75 points finishing the session at 1615.00, and the Russell closed lower by 9.60 points at 565.90. The Dow ended lower by 76 points at 9321. For the week the main indexes closed with losses.


FRIDAY’S MARKET
With the Nasdaq trading under pressure during the Globex session, the E-mini SP started the day at 1010.75, and after trading only one tick above the opening price, it started to push lower. The selling pressure coming from the weak Nasdaq and the profit taking move before the release of the economic data, drove the SP all the way down to 994.00. Finally, after a period of consolidation in which the markets traded on a narrow range and tried to bounce, the bears gain and new lows where posted, the SP reached 992.25, the KEY support level. After sitting for most of the session near the lows and trading in a narrow range patter, the SP bounced to 998.00 pulled back to 995.00 and pushed upwards into the end of the session managing to break back above the 1000.00 mark reaching 1004.50 . For the day, the SP lost 7.75 points and settled at 1005.75, the Nasdaq lost 16.75 points finishing the session at 1615.00, and the Russell closed lower by 9.60 points at 565.90. The Dow ended lower by 76 points at 9321.
.

.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Last Friday I wrote: “Markets made their daily highs during the Globex session and sold off, the SP founded support at my 998.50 area keeping the uptrend intact. There is not too much to add to yesterday’s newsletter, the trend is strong, intact and on every pullback buyers appear. However, the SP has to trade above the 1016.00 area and the Nasdaq has to hold above the 1630.00-1632.00 levels in order to press higher, otherwise the double top on the SP and the ceiling on the Nasdaq may give way to more sideways trading between the 998.00 and 1016.00 levels. If you are holding a long position, you may be selling the rallies and reestablish your longs on the pullbacks, but if the economic reports to get released today give way to new buying a strong breakout or an uptrend session may be seen. I continue to favor the long side and I think the next stop will be between the 1032.00 to 1038.00 areas on the SP and 1675.00 on the Nasdaq. For today’s trading session, the trend remains intact unless the SP breaks below the 1002.00 area; I will try my first long trade around 1008.50, obviously with a tight stop.”
Markets sold off from their resistance levels but managed to come back into the end of the session. I went Thursday night to sleep with the wrong idea that the markets were ready for their next and maybe last upside leg, and that resulted wrong. Finally the rally posted a top from where it get severely sold, this sell off came after the SP almost reached the 38.2 percent Fibonacci level measured from the all time highs to the March low, and the Nasdaq respected the 1632.00 ceiling that have frozen during almost a month any attempt to break higher.
During all the week the index traded in a range that has not been broke to either side, on the support area, we have the 992.00 level on the SP and around 1590.00 on the NQ, on the upper side, the 1016.00 and 1632.00 areas, so until the markets make the breakout of this wide consolidation, this sideways pattern will continue to be in play.
Last Friday’s wide sell off may be an indication that the markets could correct from these levels, however, the strong support that the markets have been showing in which buyers appear on every pullback, still don’t give validity to the argument that the markets may turn down, more else, it may be showing us the possible extension that the next upside leg, if it happens, could demonstrate, My projections continue to be the same, 1032.00 to 1038.00 areas on the SP and 1675.00 on the Nasdaq.
For today’s trading session, Friday’s wide trading range session, may give way to an inside day, I may be selling the rallies and buying the dips, however, and its not that I want to insist too much with my still bullish scenario, I will try to play the green if the Nasdaq is trading in positive territory, but I will be forced to change this light bullishness if the SP will trade below the 992.00 area.

TODAY’S SESSION
There is at 1008.50-1010.00 on the SP, 1618.50-1621.00 on the Nasdaq and 567.90-569.20 on the Russell. If the markets do not break above them or those get rejected, try to play the short side until they get exceeded, those are near last Friday’s early highs, but if they trade higher, expect a test of 1012.50-1014.00 on the SP, 1624.50-1625.00 on the Nasdaq and 571.80-572.30 on the Russell. If those do not hold, then the SP may push to new highs while the Nasdaq reaches once more it resistance area at 1629.00-1631.
There is support at 1003.50-1001.50 on the SP, 1611.50-1609.75 on the Nasdaq and 563.20-562.00 on the Nasdaq. If the markets are strong those may hold, but if they will try once more to push lower and the next levels at 999.25-997.50 on the SP, 1606.00-1604.50 on the Nasdaq and 560.00-558.60 on the Russell do not hold, then expect another visit to 993.50-992.00 on the SP, 1599.50-1598.00 on the Nasdaq and 555.70-554.20 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK.






TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1020.75-1022.00 1634.00-1636.50 581.80-583.50
Resistance 3 1017.00-1018.50 1629.00-1631.00 577.00-578.50
Resistance 2 1012.50-1014.00 1624.50-1625.00 571.80-572.30
Resistance 1 1008.00-1010.00 1618.50-1621.00 567.90-569.20
PIVOT 1004.50 1614.50 566.80
Support 1 1003.50-1001.50 1611.50-1609.75 563.20-562.00
Support 2 999.25-997.50 1606.00-1604.50 560.00-558.60
Support 3 993.50-992.00 1599.50-1598.00 555.70-554.20
Support 4 989.25-987.50 1594.00-1593.00 550.60-550.30


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1115.63 1799.75 668.4
1077.27 1736.10 633.7
1053.77 1697.10 612.4
1039.25 1673.00 599.2
1030.27 1658.10 591.1
1015.75 1634.00 577.9
1006.77 1619.10 569.8
1004.00 1614.50 567.3
1001.23 1609.90 564.7
992.25 1595.00 556.6
977.73 1570.90 543.4
968.75 1556.00 535.3
954.23 1531.90 522.1
930.73 1492.90 500.8
892.38 1429.25 466.1









DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1010.75 1625.50 571.90
AS DAILY LOW 987.25 1585.00 550.60​












Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
 
DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 18-August-2009


Japan’s lower than expected growth, worries about consumer spending, Global stock’s sell off and NY Empire manufacturing Index better than expected gave way to a sharply lower opening. Later, Homebuilders Sentiment index rises for the month of August


ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM PPI
8:30 AM Core PPI
8:30 AM Building Permits
8:30 AM Housing Starts


YESTERDAY’S MARKET
After trading sharply lower during the Globex session, the E-mini SP started the day at 984.00, after pulling back a point, bounced to 984.50 just to get sold to a new low at 979.25 and then to 977.50 from where the index bounced to 980.50 and to 981.75. After three failed attempts to break higher, the SP pulled back to 978.50. Markets tried to hold, but the failure of the Nasdaq to move higher and its new low kept the markets under pressure giving way to a new marginal low on the SP at 977.25. The double bottom gave way to a bounce that reached 983.50, unable to break higher; the index backed off once more and traded in a narrow range between the daily lows and the 982.00 level. After trading for more than three hours on that sideways patter, the SP pushed lower, tested the lows and bounced to 980.00 and pushed down to a new intraday low at 975.50 before bouncing into the close. For the day, the SP lost 27.75 points and settled at 978.00, the Nasdaq ended lower by 49.00 points at 1566.00 and the Russell finished at 548.40, minus 17.50 points. The Dow lost 186 points closing the day at 9135.
.

.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Last Friday I wrote: “Markets sold off from their resistance levels but managed to come back into the end of the session. I went Thursday night to sleep with the wrong idea that the markets were ready for their next and maybe last upside leg, and that resulted wrong. Finally the rally posted a top from where it get severely sold, this sell off came after the SP almost reached the 38.2 percent Fibonacci level measured from the all time highs to the March low, and the Nasdaq respected the 1632.00 ceiling that have frozen during almost a month any attempt to break higher. During all the week the index traded in a range that has not been broke to either side, on the support area, we have the 992.00 level on the SP and around 1590.00 on the NQ, on the upper side, the 1016.00 and 1632.00 areas, so until the markets make the breakout of this wide consolidation, this sideways pattern will continue to be in play. For today’s trading session, Friday’s wide trading range session, may give way to an inside day, I may be selling the rallies and buying the dips, however, and its not that I want to insist too much with my still bullish scenario, I will try to play the green if the Nasdaq is trading in positive territory, but I will be forced to change this light bullishness if the SP will trade below the 992.00 area.”

As the markets opened under extreme selling pressure breaking the two week sideways pattern to the downside, I did not have many choices on the long side, some small long trades with a breakeven result is what I did. During the last few weeks I made many calls to traders holding a long position to reduce the size of their exposure, surely I was waiting for an upside breakout, but I quoted that the rally was fragile.
Yesterday’s wide range downside session in which the NQ leaded the move may see some rebound attempt during today’s trading session, but at this point markets have make a turn down and selling the rallies until the SP trades back above the 1001.50 area and the NQ breaks above 1604.00 may be the way to go for position traders. These coming two weeks period, until Labor Day, do not offer the best trading conditions, light volumes and semi empty trading floors are similar to the end of year, so lighten positions for those who will be present is recommended.
I may be wrong, as many times, but this week in which the August option expiration will take place may give way a bouncing attempt, but the extension of yesterday’s range does not call for new highs or low, a consolidation session with a downside bias or an inside day are the possible scenarios.
As in the past, the Nasdaq seems to be leading the trend, so following that index may be the best thing to do, if the markets try to come back, that index must be over performing the SP, but if the 972.00-968.50 areas on the SP or the 951.00 will be tested during this and the following sessions, the bounces should be limited and may result in more selling opportunities, unless all the indexes are trading solid in the green, selling the bounces after the rallies stall is the way to go, my bullishness will have to wait for this correction to end.


TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at 981.00-983.00 on the SP, 1571.00-1573.00 on the Nasdaq and 549.80-551.50 on the Russell, if an early rebound attempt fails to exceed those areas, the SP may sell off to the 973.00 level, but If the markets break above them expect a test of 986.00-988.00 on the SP, 1578.00-1580.00 on the Nasdaq and 553.60-555.10 on the Russell. If those do not offer resistance, then the short covering rally may push the indexes higher reaching 991.00-993.50 on the SP, 1587.00-1588.00 on the Nasdaq and 558.40-559.60 on the Russell.


There is support at yesterday’s lows at 975.50-974.00 on the SP, 1561.00-1559.00 on the Nasdaq and 546.40-544.70 on the Russell, if those do not hold look for the sell off to continue pushing the markets down to 972.00-970.50 on the SP, 1554.00-1552.00 on the Nasdaq and 541.30-540.50 on the Russell. Failing there will give additional momentum to the selling as the indexes test 967.00-966.00 on the SP, 1545.00-1543.50 on the Nasdaq and 538.00-537.50 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK.






TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 996.50-998.50 1594.00-1596.00 561.50-563.20
Resistance 3 991.00-993.50 1587.00-1588.00 558.40-559.60
Resistance 2 986.00-988.00 1578.00-1580.00 553.60-555.10
Resistance 1 981.00-983.00 1571.00-1573.00 549.80-551.50
PIVOT 986.00 1580.00 552.50
Support 1 975.50-974.00 1561.00-1559.00 546.40-544.70
Support 2 972.00-970.50 1554.00-1552.00 541.30-540.50
Support 3 967.00-966.00 1545.00-1543.50 538.00-537.50
Support 4 963.50-962.50 1538.00-1536.50 534.60-533.10​





Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
 
DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 20-August-2009

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 20-August-2009

World markets opened under pressure but managed to turn up on higher Crude oil prices.

ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM Initial Claims
10:00 AM Leading Indicators
10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed


YESTERDAY’S MARKET
Markets opened under pressure, the E-mini SP started the session at 978.75 and after posting a bottom at 978.00 it rallied to the 983.00 level. A feeble pullback was bought and the index reached 985.50 and then 988.00 where the short covering rally lost its steam. The SP pulled back to 984.00 but rallied back to 988.75, just below my 989.50 shorting areas. The SP continued to fluctuate forming a triangle pattern that once it get resolved to the upside pushed the SP up to 997.50. Then the index traded in a narrow range pattern that managed to post a new high at 998.75 from where it pulled back a bit forming a round top giving way to a pullback to 991.75. Unable to break lower, markets bounced closing near the daily highs. For the session, the SP added 7.50 points and settled at 997.00, the Nasdaq closed higher by 11.75 points at 1598.75 and the Russell closed at 561.20, up 5.30 points for the day. The Dow closed at 9279, up 61 points.




MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Last Friday I wrote: “So we have a top on the SP at the 38.2 Fibonacci level between the all time highs and the March lows, we have the 1632.00 area on the Nasdaq which held during all the past 20 or more days. Then yesterday’s sell off in which the SP broke the recent sideways pattern once it traded below the 992.00 area closing near the daily lows which resulted in a temporal exhaustion of the sell off, and then yesterday, an expected rebound that failed short of that previous support and now resistance area but that closed near the daily highs. So the logical trend pattern is to see the SP failing from the 992.00 area and pushing to a new low during the next coming sessions, maybe around the 963.00-961.00 area, if the trend is down and the markets are due for a continuing correction, a negative session may be seen today, but the typical activity that takes place during the last two weeks of August until Labor Day, and the August option expiration may give way to another narrow range consolidating session. Anyway I have to favor the short side of the markets all the time that the SP does not trade back above the 992.00-993.00 area, the same is true for the Nasdaq at 1594.00-1596.00. On a lower opening I will look for the first rally to get short.”



Ups and downs, the market has been trading in a daily erratic pattern in which the rallies get exhaust by closing at the highs and the sharp sell offs get reversed after closing at the daily lows, it seems that this can continue until Labor Day.
This lack of direction in which the markets are trading after they get reversed from their most recent highs may give an indication of a short term sideways pattern in which the indexes may consolidate before the next important move, lack of activity during the last two weeks of August, next Friday August option expiration and uncertainty about stocks valuation balanced by sidelines money ready to jump in on every pullback make difficult to call the next move.
However, the classic bullishness that comes on most of every option expiration cycle, the rebound after the SP posted a bottom just above the 975.00 area and yesterday’s close above the short term KEY 993.00-992.00 levels may indicate higher prices for the rest of the week, will the indexes trade in an ordered pattern? Let’s see.
For the markets to resume what it appeared to be an urgent correction, the SP will have to break solidly below the 992.00 area, but a close ABOVE MONDAY’S HIGH (998.50) is necessary to resume the uptrend, so those two levels have to be closely watched.
There are a few important reports to get released before and after the opening, so expect more volatility than yesterday. I will try to stay long above the 998.50, but I will go short once the 992.00 area gets violated in particular if the Nasdaq is under performing the SP.



TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at 999.00-1001.00 on the SP, 1602.00-1604.00 on the Nasdaq and 562.50-563.90 on the Russell, reaching those early in the session and placing a top up there could give way to a pullback to 993.00 on the SP, but if the trend is up in front of next Friday’s august option expiration, markets may push higher to their next levels at 1003.00-1004.75 on the SP, 1608.50-1611.00 on the Nasdaq and 565.20-566.20 on the Russell. If those can not hold the trend, look for the rally to continue for a test of the 1008.00-1009.00 areas on the SP, and 1617.50-1618.50 and 569.30-571.30 for the Nasdaq and Russell respectively.

There is early support at 995.00-993.00 on the SP, 1594.00-1592.00 on the Nasdaq and 558.50-557.20 on the Russell. Nothing bad happens if the markets open higher and hold the first pullback above those levels that will be a bullish indicator, failing below them will push the markets down to 991.00-989.25 on the SP, 1588.00-1586.50 on the Nasdaq and 554.10-553.10 on the Russell. If those can not hold, expect the markets to continue lower posting a session with a bearish bias as they test 985.00-983.50 on the SP, 1581.50-1579.00 on the Nasdaq and 551.50-549.60 on the Russell. A close below those levels could give way to the resume of the downtrend. GOOD LUCK.






TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1012.75-1014.00 1624.00-1625.00 577.50-578.00
Resistance 3 1008.00-1009.00 1617.50-1618.50 569.30-571.30
Resistance 2 1003.00-1004.75 1608.50-1611.00 565.20-566.20
Resistance 1 999.00-1001.00 1602.00-1604.00 562.50-563.90
PIVOT 990.75 1588.00 556.60
Support 1 995.00-993.00 1594.00-1592.00 558.50-557.20
Support 2 991.00-989.25 1588.00-1586.50 554.10-553.10
Support 3 985.00-983.50 1581.50-1579.00 551.50-549.60
Support 4 978.00-976.50 1575.00-1574.00 547.20-546.10




S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1092.25 1753.50 624.1
1056.35 1694.75 600.1
1034.35 1658.75 585.4
1020.75 1636.50 576.3
1012.35 1622.75 570.7
998.75 1600.50 561.6
990.35 1586.75 556.0
987.75 1582.50 554.3
985.15 1578.25 552.5
976.75 1564.50 546.9
963.15 1542.25 537.8
954.75 1528.50 532.2
941.15 1506.25 523.1
919.15 1470.25 508.4
883.25 1411.50 484.40








DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1008.75 1617.00 568.80
AS DAILY LOW 986.50 1581.50 554.10








Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
 
DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 25-August-2009

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 25-August-2009


Markets consolidated Friday’s rally and fluctuated posting new intraday highs.



ECONOMIC DATA
9:00 AM S&P CaseShiller Home Price Index
10:00 AM Consumer Confidence




YESTERDAY’S MARKET
Markets trade higher during the night giving way to a positive opening, the E-mini SP started the session at 1029.50 and after pulling back to 1027.50 pushed up reaching 1032.50. The index retreated to 1028.50 posting a higher low, longs joined the market and the SP made it all the way up to 1034.50, a feeble pullback get bought and the index reached 1035.00. The rally stalled, the Globex NQ’s high at 1648.25 remained intact and the SP pulled back to 1032.25, later, the SP finally broke below the 1028.00 area and pushed down to 1023.50, it bounced to 1027.50 just to fall to a new low at 1021.25. Markets held the profit taking attempt and the SP bounced back to 1026.00, pulled back to test the lows and pushed up into the close and settled almost unchanged for the day. For the session, the SP closed at 1024.50, the Nasdaq lost 1.50 points closing at 1634.50 and the Russell closed lower by .70 points at 579.80. The Dow closed almost unchanged at 9509.
.

.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Last Friday I wrote: “I think that Monday may be a consolidation day after the wide range up Friday and only a total reversal of Friday’s trend and a close below the 1000.00 area will indicate that this was a false break, I don’t’ think this is the case. So an inside range session is the most probable scenario for this Monday, that means that the index may trade between the 1025.00 to 1010.00 areas, volumes will continue to be light and selling near the resistance areas and buying close to support with tight stops is the best play, I will keep a slightly bullish bias, by that I mean that I will give preference to enter long on the pullbacks, the reason, last Friday move took many short traders by surprise, those will have to cover giving support to the markets.”



Markets traded higher reaching higher highs before pulling back into the close.
As we consider that this can be the last leg of the rally, the indexes has reached levels that may be the short term top or near the top, the SP almost reached my 1038.00 area which I have been mentioning for a long period, and the Nasdaq which lost its steam during the last month made a new high that needs another 1.5% push to reach my expected 1675.00 area.
But the last sell off attempt was limited in time and it recovered in a quick move, these indicates that a pullback will have to exceed the three to four time windows in order to call a top, so if my scenario is correct and the 1010.50 area manages to hold on a close for the next 72 hours, new highs may be posted, and once the last of the bears threw way the towel, then a wider correction may be seen.
For today’s trading session, surely the Consumer Confidence data will impact the trading session, but as long as the 1016.00 area holds, there is chance that yesterday’s consolidation will get resolved to the upside, however another session where the markets fluctuate could also be seen, in conclusion, I will try to be a buyer on the first decent pullback as long as the SP is trading above the 1016.00 area.



TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at 1026.50-1028.00 on the SP, 1637.50-1639.00 on the Nasdaq and 581.50-582.40, those acted as pivot points on yesterday’s trading session, so an early bounce that fails near that levels may give way to a good pullback, but if those areas get exceeded look for the indexes to trade higher reaching 1031.00-1032.50 on the SP, 1637.50-1639.00 on the Nasdaq and 585.00-585.80 on the Russell. If the rally does not stall there the markets may reach 1034.50-1035.00 on the SP, 1649.50-1651.00 on the Nasdaq and 588.80-590.50 on the Russell. I assume that the first time the SP gets there it will try to post a double top.


There is support at 1023.00-1022.00 on the SP, 1630.50-1628.00on the Nasdaq and 578.10-577.20 on the Nasdaq. If those do not hold, look for the pullback to reach 1018.50-1017.00 on the SP, 1625.00-1623.00 on the Nasdaq and 575.60-574.30 on the Russell. Nothing bad happens if those hold, but if they fail, look for the profit taking to continue pushing the indexes down to 1015.50-1013.00 on the SP, 1618.50-1616.75 on the Nasdaq and 571.70-570.50 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK.






TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1040.50-1042.00 1656.50-1658.00 593.70-594.40
Resistance 3 1034.50-1035.00 1649.50-1651.00 588.80-590.50
Resistance 2 1031.00-1032.50 1644.50-1645.00 585.00-585.80
Resistance 1 1026.50-1028.00 1637.50-1639.00 581.50-582.40
PIVOT 1027.00 1637.00 581.10
Support 1 1023.00-1022.00 1630.50-1628.00 578.10-577.20
Support 2 1018.50-1017.00 1625.00-1623.00 575.60-574.30
Support 3 1015.50-1013.00 1618.50-1616.75 571.70-570.50
Support 4 1011.00-1010.50 1611.00-1609.00 566.30-565.80



S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1093.44 1731.13 626.4
1071.00 1699.30 611.0
1057.25 1679.80 601.6
1048.75 1667.75 595.8
1043.50 1660.30 592.2
1035.00 1648.25 586.4
1029.75 1640.80 582.8
1028.13 1638.50 581.7
1026.50 1636.20 580.6
1021.25 1628.75 577.0
1012.75 1616.70 571.2
1007.50 1609.25 567.6
999.00 1597.20 561.8
985.25 1577.70 552.4
962.81 1545.88 537.1










DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1029.75 1641.00 587.80
AS DAILY LOW 1016.00 1621.50 578.40​












Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
 
DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 27-August-2009

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 27-August-2009


Senator Edward Kennedy dies, rest in peace.
Durable Good Orders jumps 4.9% for July, New Home Sales jumps 9.6% in signs that economy may be recovering, markets fluctuate and consolidate for another day.

ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM Initial Claims
8:30 AM Q2 GDP- Prel.
8:30 AM GDP Deflator
8:30 AM Core PCE




YESTERDAY’S MARKET
After fluctuating during the Globex session, the E-mini SP started the day at 1022.50 and after bouncing to 1025.00 it reversed down posting a low at 1021.25. As quick as it fell it pushed up to 1025.25, just to get reversed once more to the previous low. As the markets waited for the release of the new Home sales data, the index pulled back posting a new intraday low at 1020.25, but just before the data was out, the markets started to rally and with the numbers out the SP reached 1026.50, then the index pulled back to 1024.00 just to rally once more reaching 1031.75. The SP pulled back a couple of points, bounced to a new marginal high at my intraday upside objective at 1032.00 and sold off back to the 1023.00 level. The index bounced to 1027.00, pulled back to 1022.50 and rallied to 1028.50. Later the markets continued to fluctuate into the end of the session, for the day, the SP added .75 points and settled at 1026.75, the Nasdaq unchanged for the day at 1636.50 and the Russell finished the day at 586.90. The Dow closed marginally up at 9543.
.

.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Last Friday I wrote: “Yesterday’s new high on the SP may hold for a few sessions, in particular for the rest of the week. It is not that I am calling the top, but my 1038.00 was rejected on its first test, volumes are very light and they will be lower for the rest of the week. Obviously there is not evidence of trending down, but the last two sessions the markets showed some good profit taking from their daily highs. If this scenario repeats tomorrow, we know what to do, selling early strength with tight stops may be the way to go, where to get short? It depends where the markets open, but I consider that a weak opening will be met by buyers and the first 10.00-12.00 points rally from whatever is the early low could be a good selling opportunity. These last two sessions showed some consolidation of the last rally, despite the intraday gains, the markets closed near their relative lows, so a temporary exhaustion of the uptrend or a false break could be printed on the charts. In conclusion, buying a lower opening with tight stops or selling the first rally after 10.00-12.00 points advance is what I will try to do.”
Markets acted as expected in another day of consolidation, early weakness gave us a great opportunity to go long for a nice trade, and despite that I did not sell the rally, short traders had their opportunity, the trading range was narrow and markets continued to trade with low volumes typical for the season.
This kind of early weakness in which buyers stand on line to jump in, may continue, and with three trading session in which the indexes consolidated after the initial moves, a breakout may be just around the corner. As we have a high on the SP just at my 1038.00 area, I can not rule out a wide range downside session, but if that happens today, I certainly think that it will be a buying opportunity, I don’t think that the markets are ready for a correction, support is coming in at very high levels and consolidations near the high have the tendency to get broken to the upside, so one negative session may be just an opportunity to join the long traders. I don’t see more than one day of selling, if that happens.
If the markets continue to trade in this consolidating mood, buying the dips, in particular during the early morning may continue to be the way to go, but I will keep watching closely the 1018.50 area on the SP and the 1632.00-1630.00 on the Nasdaq in order to have a clue for markets direction, if the Nasdaq starts once more to over perform the SP, try to stay long.



TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at 1028.00-1030.00 on the SP, 1640.00-1642.00 on the Nasdaq and 584.30-584.90, if those get exceeded and hold on a pullback look for strength in the markets as they reach 1032.50-1033.25 on the SP, 1647.50-1648.50 on the Nasdaq and 587.80-588.00 on the Russell. Those have been sold during the last sessions, so if the markets repeat their selves, look for some profit taking, but if they continue to push up, a test of 1035.25-1036.00 on the SP, 1657.00-1659.50 on the Nasdaq and 583.90-584.60 on the Russell may be seen in the way to new highs.
There is support at 1024.50-1023.50 on the SP, 1632.00-1630.00 on the Nasdaq and 581.50-580.90 on the Nasdaq. As yesterday, those levels are important for the Nasdaq, so if that index trade below them, be careful with any long position in that market, but the SP may continue to found support at 1020.50-1020.00. Below them, the selling could get additional momentum. GOOD LUCK.






TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1038.50-1040.00 1662.00-1664.00 590.20-591.10
Resistance 3 1035.25-1036.00 1657.00-1659.50 583.90-584.60
Resistance 2 1032.50-1033.25 1647.50-1648.50 587.80-588.00
Resistance 1 1028.00-1030.00 1640.00-1642.00 584.30-584.90
PIVOT 1026.25 1638.00 582.80
Support 1 1024.50-1023.50 1632.00-1630.00 581.50-580.90
Support 2 1020.50-1020.00 1626.00-1624.50 579.00-578.20
Support 3 1016.00-1014.50 1616.00-1614.00 575.40-573.70
Support 4 1011.00-1009.00 1606.00-1604.00 569.60.568.50



S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1081.94 1741.69 618.0
1062.76 1706.19 605.9
1051.01 1684.44 598.5
1043.75 1671.00 593.9
1039.26 1662.69 591.1
1032.00 1649.25 586.5
1027.51 1640.94 583.7
1026.13 1638.38 582.8
1024.74 1635.81 581.9
1020.25 1627.50 579.1
1012.99 1614.06 574.5
1008.50 1605.75 571.7
1001.24 1592.31 567.1
989.49 1570.56 559.7
970.31 1535.06 547.7
















DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1035.25 1647.00 588.40
AS DAILY LOW 1023.50 1625.00 581.00





Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
Index Futures Information Services - Emini Trading Advisory and Trading Alerts | TheMiniTrade.com
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DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 28-August-2009

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 28-August-2009



2Q GDP minus 1%, Initial Claims at 570K, Continuing Claims at 6.13 million and Boeing jumping 8% gave way to an initial sell off that was reversed to push markets up into the close posting a positive close.

ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM Personal Income
8:30 AM Personal Spending
9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment-rev.




YESTERDAY’S MARKET
With low trading volumes typical for the season, markets fluctuated during the Globex session, the E-mini SP started the day at 1026.50 and after testing the 1027.00 area it sold off to 1023.00. After a few minutes in which the SP tried to hold and leaded by the under performing Nasdaq, the SP continued to push down to the 1020.00 Globex low. Unable to rebound, the index continued to trade lower and tested my 1014.40 support area. The SP bounced to 1018.00, pulled back posting a higher low and bounced once more reaching 1019.75, the rebound continued with the SP pushing up to the 1024.50 intraday resistance, once the Treasury auction was done, markets turned positive pushing the SP up to 1032.75. Then markets pulled back a bit and traded in sideways pattern into the close. For the day, the SP added 2.25 points and settled at 1029.50, the Nasdaq added 2.00 points closing at 1638.50 and the Russell lost .30 closing at 582.60. The Dow added 37 points closing the day at 9580.

.

.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Last Friday I wrote: “This kind of early weakness in which buyers stand on line to jump in, may continue, and with three trading session in which the indexes consolidated after the initial moves, a breakout may be just around the corner. As we have a high on the SP just at my 1038.00 area, I can not rule out a wide range downside session, but if that happens today, I certainly think that it will be a buying opportunity, I don’t think that the markets are ready for a correction, support is coming in at very high levels and consolidations near the high have the tendency to get broken to the upside, so one negative session may be just an opportunity to join the long traders. I don’t see more than one day of selling, if that happens. If the markets continue to trade in this consolidating mood, buying the dips, in particular during the early morning may continue to be the way to go, but I will keep watching closely the 1018.50 area on the SP and the 1632.00-1630.00 on the Nasdaq in order to have a clue for markets direction, if the Nasdaq starts once more to over perform the SP, try to stay long.”



We considered that the toppy conditions of the markets could give way to a strong sell off, you never know until it happens, it took me by surprise. I wrote yesterday that the markets could have been ready for a one day sell off, the sell off lasted a few hours and markets reversed as traders continue to buy on the pullbacks.
Not too much has changed during the last three sessions, the indexes continue to consolidated after the SP posted its high at the 1038.00 upside objective, this consolidation that is taking place near the highs carries a bullish undertone, and despite that the felling of many traders is that we have a short term top, there is not evidence that longs are afraid of a reversal.
Today’s session, near the end of month cycle has the tendency to see a strong move, normally, the end of month markets push up, and after three consecutive session in which the indexes didn’t make anything, they may surprise us finally breaking out of the current range.
Earlier in the morning we have the Personal Income and spending data, spending, if increased may give way to another pre-opening spike, then the markets will have to trade against it, on a Friday, I would not be surprised if we have a wide range trading session, but despite my slightly bullishness based on the fact that the consolidation is taking place near the highs, there are not clues of what the markets will do, and with so low trading volumes, anything could happen, I think that I will continue to be a buyer on the pullbacks.


TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at yesterday’s late highs at 1031.00-1032.50 on the SP, 1643.00-1644.50 on the Nasdaq and 585.10-586.50 on the Russell. If those, which have been acted as strong resistance areas during the last few days, remain intact, look for another sell off attempt, but if they get exceeded, look for buyers to join the move pushing the markets up to 1035.00-1036.50 on the SP, 1648.00-1650.50 on the Nasdaq and 588.40.590.10 on the Russell. If those can not hold, then new highs may be posted during the last day of the week.



There is support at 1027.50-1026.00 on the SP; 1634.00-1632.00 on the Nasdaq and 581.00-579.70 on the Russell, failing to hold there will push the markets down to 1024.00-1022.00 on the SP, 1626.00-1624.00 on the Nasdaq and 577.40-576.10 on the Russell. If those are the lows, another 14.00-18.00 points rally on the SP could be seen, but if sellers win the battle, then the key 1019.50-1018.00 area on the SP will get tested while the other indexes visit 1618.00-1616.50 and 574.30-573.60 respectively. GOOD LUCK.







TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1043.50-1045.00 1662.00-1663.00 598.00-560.20
Resistance 3 1039.50-1040.00 1656.50-1657.50 593.70-594.40
Resistance 2 1035.00-1036.50 1648.00-1650.50 588.40.590.10
Resistance 1 1031.00-1032.50 1643.00-1644.50 585.10-586.50
PIVOT 1025.50 1630.75 579.60
Support 1 1027.50-1026.00 1634.00-1632.00 581.00-579.70
Support 2 1024.00-1022.00 1626.00-1624.00 577.40-576.10
Support 3 1019.00-1018.50 1618.00-1616.50 574.30-573.60
Support 4 1013.50-1011.00 1608.00-1607.50 569.20-568.00



S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1109.25 1783.75 648.5
1079.87 1729.89 624.3
1061.87 1696.89 609.5
1050.75 1676.50 600.4
1043.87 1663.89 594.7
1032.75 1643.50 585.6
1025.87 1630.89 579.9
1023.75 1627.00 578.2
1021.63 1623.11 576.5
1014.75 1610.50 570.8
1003.63 1590.11 561.7
996.75 1577.50 556.0
985.63 1557.11 546.9
967.63 1524.11 532.1
938.25 1470.25 507.9








DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1040.00 1658.00 584.00
AS DAILY LOW 1022.00 1625.00 569.20​












Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
 
DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 31-August-2009



Personal Spending up .2%, Personal Income and PCE Inflation flat gave way to new highs that get sold, later in the day markets recovered closing neutral and mixed.

WEEKLY PIVOTS FOR WEEK ENDING 28-August-2009
R3 1063.25
R2 1051.00
R1 1039.25
PP 1027.00
S1 1015.25
S2 1003.00
S3 991.25


ECONOMIC DATA
9:45 AM Chicago PMI


WEEKLY RECAP
Markets started the week posting new intraday highs but consolidated during the session, the SP closed at 1024.50, the Nasdaq lost 1.50 points closing at 1634.50 and the Russell closed lower by .70 points at 579.80. The Dow closed almost unchanged at 9509.Tuesday’s trading session with the news that President Barack Obama plans to reappoint Ben Bernanke to a second term as chairman of the Federal Reserve. Later in the day, the Case- Shiller: Home prices index reported that home prices in the main 20 U.S. cities fell in June at a slower pace than forecast, also, the August Consumer Confidence jumped to 54.1 on jobs outlook, all this gave way to a new intraday high, however, sellers came in and the session resulted a non event session as the markets closed with marginal changes. For the day the SP added 1.50 points closing the day at 1026.00, the Nasdaq added 2.50 points and settled at 1636.50 and the Russell closed higher by 2.50 points at 582.30. The consolidating trend pattern continue also in Wednesday, the session started with the sad news that Senator Edward Kennedy died, Durable Good Orders jumped 4.9% for July and the New Home Sales data jumped 9.6% in signs that economy may be recovering, for the day, the SP added .75 points and settled at 1026.75, the Nasdaq unchanged for the day at 1636.50 and the Russell finished the day at 586.90. The Dow closed marginally up at 9543. Thursday’s trading session the markets received various economic and corporate reports, 2Q GDP came out minus 1%, Initial Claims at 570K, Continuing Claims at 6.13 million and Boeing jumped 8%, all these gave way to an initial sell off that was reversed to push markets up into the close posting a positive close. For the day, the SP added 2.25 points and settled at 1029.50, the Nasdaq added 2.00 points closing at 1638.50 and the Russell lost .30 closing at 582.60. The Dow added 37 points closing the day at 9580. Friday, was, more of the same, earlier new highs get reversed, Personal Spending was up .2%, Personal Income and PCE Inflation flat, at the end, the SP lost 1.75 points and settled at 1027.50, the Nasdaq added 3.75 points closing the week at 1642.75 and the Russell lost 3.3 points finishing the week at 579.10.The Dow lost 36 points closing at 9544. For the week, markets closing marginally up.



FRIDAY’S MARKET
Markets traded with a positive bias during the nightly session making new highs as the pre opening economic reports get released. The E-mini SP started the day at 1038.00 and pulled back to 1035.00. Then, the SP rallied to 1038.75, the Globex high. With the markets waiting for the release of the next piece of data, the SP pulled back strongly to 1032.00. Once the data was out, the SP bounced to 1035.00 but sellers stepped back in, pushing the index down to 1029.50. The index tried to hold above the 1030.00 area but finally gave back and sold off to a new marginal low below the 1027.00 Globex low, once that level was tested the SP bounced to 1031.75. As the selling pressure continued the SP pushed down all the way to 1022.00 where the markets held. After trading in a narrow range above the lows, the index pushed up to 1027.50, once more the markets consolidated; the SP tested the 1025.00 level, bounced to 1029.25 where it topped. The index backed off to 1026.75 and traded in a sideways pattern for the rest of the session. For the day, the SP lost 1.75 points and settled at 1027.50, the Nasdaq added 3.75 points closing the week at 1642.75 and the Russell lost 3.3 points finishing the week at 579.10.The Dow lost 36 points closing at 9544. For the week, markets closing marginally up.
.

.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Last Friday I wrote: “Not too much has changed during the last three sessions, the indexes continue to consolidated after the SP posted its high at the 1038.00 upside objective, this consolidation that is taking place near the highs carries a bullish undertone, and despite that the felling of many traders is that we have a short term top, there is not evidence that longs are afraid of a reversal. Today’s session, near the end of month cycle has the tendency to see a strong move, normally, the end of month markets push up, and after three consecutive session in which the indexes didn’t make anything, they may surprise us finally breaking out of the current range. Earlier in the morning we have the Personal Income and spending data, spending, if increased may give way to another pre-opening spike, then the markets will have to trade against it, on a Friday, I would not be surprised if we have a wide range trading session, but despite my slightly bullishness based on the fact that the consolidation is taking place near the highs, there are not clues of what the markets will do, and with so low trading volumes, anything could happen, I think that I will continue to be a buyer on the pullbacks.”



Markets rallied in the early morning, sold off and bounced into the close posting a neutral close. This consolidating week in which the SP posted a double top at my first upside objective, 1038.00, and the Nasdaq traded a new high, will have to give way to a strong breakout during the next trading sessions.
During the last weeks I have maintained a bullish bias, this has worked out well, but now, the markets will have to prove that they can hold and move forward to the 1060.00’s levels on the SP and 1675.00 or higher, maybe 1698.00 on the Nasdaq. The indexes has found good support above the previous important highs that has been acted as short term KEY support areas, the 1014.50 on the SP and the 1632.00-1630.00 areas on the Nasdaq, that despite that were violated to the downside during the week, the indexes has continued to close above them.
However, traders have been selling the new highs and early strength has resulted in intraday sell offs moves, these moves, has been met by new buyers who has been entering the markets on every pullback, that could not last for more time, if the markets won’t be able to rally and hold their gains into the close, the next time that sellers press the indexes down,. They may win the battle giving way to a more important correction.
So the next few days are highly important in order to call the next move, the longer the markets fail at the highs, greater the chances that they are ready to correct. But there is not evidence that the highs have been posted, the double top on the SP it’s the only real circumstance that at this moment could be a read flag on the charts, but the short term trend continues to be slightly bullish to neutral.
Under this uncertainty about the next move its hard to take a trading position, and with the low trading volumes normal for the season, these lack of convincement on direction could also last into labor day. Taking all this into account, and unknowing the next move of the markets, I recommend to light positions and to use the Monday’s pivot points for market direction, long above them and short below them. I will also try to follow the Nasdaq as this index normally give us the clues for market direction, and, with a whole week of fluctuating conditions markets may be ready for a trend session.
Remember that the SP has strong resistance around the 1032.00-1033.25 areas, this Monday, they coincide with my AS higher projection, so if we have an early bounce that fails there, we could see another intraday sell off, but if that level gets exceeded, Monday, end of month, markets may push higher breaking to new highs.



TODAY’S SESSION
There is early resistance just above Friday’s highs at 1030.50-1032.00 on the SP, 1646.50-1649.00 on the Nasdaq and 581.90-583.30, and early bounce to those areas which have been acted as the real resistance levels that fails, could give way to a strong sell off, but if those get exceeded and hold on a pullback the trend may be up reaching 1036.50-1037.00 on the SP, 1653.00-1655.00 on the Nasdaq and 587.60-588.10 on the Russell. Those areas on the SP and Russell are just below the recent highs, so any rally may stall up there, but if the markets area strong and ready to make new highs, and the SP holds a pullback to the 1033.25-1032.00 area, then the rally may continue reaching 1039.25-1040.50 on the SP, 1663.75-1666.00 on the Nasdaq and 590.70-591.80 on the Russell, a lot of buying must come into the markets in order to break above them during today’s session.



There is support at 1026.00-1024.50 on the SP, 1638.50-1636.50 on the Nasdaq and 576.30-574.90 on the Nasdaq. If the markets open neutral and buying comes in at those levels, a bullish session could be seen. If those does not hold, then 1020.00-1018.50 on the SP, 1632.00-1630.00 on the Nasdaq and 572.70-570.90 on the Russell most hold or the markets will be visiting the lower boundary of the recent ranges. GOOD LUCK.






TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1045.00-1046.00 1674.50-1675.00 597.10-598.50
Resistance 3 1039.25-1040.50 1663.75-1666.00 590.70-591.80
Resistance 2 1036.50-1037.00 1653.00-1655.00 587.60-588.10
Resistance 1 1030.50-1032.00 1646.50-1649.00 581.90-583.30
PIVOT 1029.50 1647.00 581.70
Support 1 1026.00-1024.50 1638.50-1636.50 576.30-574.90
Support 2 1020.00-1018.50 1632.00-1630.00 572.70-570.90
Support 3 1016.00-1015.00 1626.00-1624.00 569.20-568.10
Support 4 1012.50-1011.00 1620.50-1618.00 566.30-564.80



S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
656.2 1109.94 670.7
631.0 1082.60 636.9
615.6 1065.85 616.2
606.1 1055.50 603.4
600.2 1049.10 595.5
590.7 1038.75 582.7
584.8 1032.35 574.8
583.0 1030.38 572.4
581.2 1028.40 569.9
575.3 1022.00 562.0
565.8 1011.65 549.2
559.9 1005.25 541.3
550.4 994.90 528.5
535.0 978.15 507.8
509.9 950.81 474.0
















DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1033.25 1674.50 584.90
AS DAILY LOW 1016.00 1636.00 569.50​












Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
 
DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 02-September-2009


ISM manufacturing Index grew for the first time since January 2008 and Pending Home sales up; markets sold off on bank concerns.

ECONOMIC DATA
8:15 AM ADP Employment Change
8:30 AM Productivity-Rev.
10:00 AM Factory Orders
10:30 AM Crude Inventories
2:00 PM FOMC Minutes




YESTERDAY’S MARKET
After trading lower during the Globex session, the E-mini SP started the day at 1015.00 from where the markets rallied all the way up, the SP made it to 1027.75 and the Nasdaq to 1649.00. The indexes toped and the trend changed. The SP pulled back to 1020.25, bounced to 1024.50 where seller stepped in pushing the index fiercely down to 1000.25. After the huge sell off, the index bounced to 1005.00 and failed to push higher giving way to anew intraday low at 999.50. Once more a feeble bounce failed to gain momentum and the SP printed a new low at 997.50. While holding above the lows, markets traded in a sideways pattern that during the last hour of the session gave way to a new low at 995.50 from where the index bounced a bit into the close. For the day, the SP lost 23.00 points and settled at 996.75, the Nasdaq closed lower at 1596.00 with a 29.00 points loss and the Russell finished the session at 557.30, minus 14.40 points. The Dow lost 185 points closing the day at 9310.
.

.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “Do we have a top? Are the markets ready for a correction or this boring sideways pattern typical for the end of vacation period will continue for another week? The markets have been trading in a sideways pattern in which the 1010.00 and 1040.00 levels on the SP have been able to hold the selling pressure and the rallies, the Nasdaq which managed to hold above the 1632.00 areas during a few session failed to come back on yesterday’s session and closed once more below that area, and the Dow which has been consolidating the 9500-9600 band is going nowhere. Follow through is what we are waiting for in order to guess the next big move. This kind of erratic trading activity in which the indexes have failed to make their breakout may continue for a few more days, maybe until next Friday in which the monthly job reports get released, once the reports is out traders will be leaving for the Labor Day extended weekend. For now, I can still play the long side if the SP holds the 1010.00 area. For today’s trading session, if we don’t have any follow through to the downside, we could see the SP testing once more the 1032.00 level, buying a weak opening that holds the 1013.00-1010.00 is my best idea until this pattern gets resolved.”


sold off and volatility picked up, the early weak opening that I described on my newsletter resulted in a good trade, later markets get reversed breaking the most recent trading pattern. The break and close below the 1010.00 area on the SP and the failure of the Dow and Nasdaq to hold their short term support areas at 9500 and 1632.00 has posted what it seems to be a short term top. Extremely bullishness at these levels which had all the players in one side of the boat gave way to a surprising sell off that did not respected any of the short term key support areas.
After yesterday’s wide range downside session, it will be normal to see some consolidation, the upper boundary may be around the 1010.00 area on the SP, and only if that level gets exceeded the markets, the index, may return to a neutral position. Follow through the downside will result in additional weakness during the month of September that carries a record of losses. However some consolidation may be seen before the next move.
Today’s session is full of economic reports, before the opening, the ADP Employment data which measure the private job market, much later in the session, the minutes of the last Fed’s meeting, so the volatility may continue in front of next Friday’s monthly unemployment numbers, yesterday’s session and its bearishness call for lower pressure, but after the wide range session a consolidating session is also a possibility, using support and resistance areas with tight stops may help us to save the day, but if the markets will try to come back and the first support areas hold, the SP may try to get back to the 1000.00 and 1004.50 areas. BUT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THAT IF THE MARKETS ARE TRADING DOWN, YOU MAY AVOID TRYING AND PICKING A BOTTOM.



TODAY’S SESSION
Early resistance is at 1001.00-1002.50 on the SP, 1601.00-1602.00 on the Nasdaq and 560.70-561.80 on the Russell. An early bounce that fails up there may invite sellers back in, but if those get exceeded, the indexes may made it to 1004.75-1006.25 on the SP, 1608.00-1609.50 on the Nasdaq and 567.40-568.20 on the Russell. If the markets will consolidate for the rest of the week, those may not get exceeded, but if buyers are enthusiastic the key areas at 1010.00-1012.00 on the SP may get tested, only above those shorts will get some panic.


There is support at 992.75-990.50 on the SP, 1590.50-1588.00 on the Nasdaq and 553.90-552.70 on the Russell. A double bottom down there on the Nasdaq may give way to some short covering, but if those fail, look for the indexes to push lower reaching 987.50-986.50 on the SP, 1582.00-1579.50 on the Nasdaq and 549.60-547.80 on the Russell. It will be very difficult to try catching a falling knife, but the Nasdaq may found good support around those areas. If buyers do not step in there, then another strong negative session may be seen as the markets test 983.00-981.00 on the SP, 1571.00-1568.75 on the Nasdaq and 544.20-543.70 on the Russell. If those hold, I will try to get long with tight stops. GOOD LUCK.







TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1014.50-1016.00 1628.00-1629.50 579.10-580.60
Resistance 3 1010.00-1012.00 1618.00-1620.00 570.80-572.50
Resistance 2 1004.75-1006.25 1608.00-1609.50 567.40-568.20
Resistance 1 1001.00-1002.50 1601.00-1602.00 560.70-561.80
PIVOT 1006.50 1611.75 564.40
Support 1 992.75-990.50 1590.50-1588.00 553.90-552.70
Support 2 987.50-986.50 1582.00-1579.50 549.60-547.80
Support 3 983.00-981.00 1571.00-1568.75 544.20-543.70
Support 4 975.00-973.00 1564.00-1562.00 539.70-538.50​







Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
 
DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 08-September-2009


Unemployment rate at 26 year high, 9.7%, Nonfarm payrolls minus 216K; markets rallied in front of the Labor Day extended holiday weekend.
ROLLOVER DAY IS ON THURSDAY 10 SEPTEMBER 2009

WEEKLY PIVOTS FOR WEEK ENDING 08-September-2009
R3 1073.00
R2 1052.00
R1 1033.00
PP 1012.00
S1 1003.00
S2 992.00
S3 972.00


ECONOMIC DATA
2:00 PM Consumer Credit


WEEKLY RECAP
With Chinese stocks trading sharply lower, the U.S. markets started the week under pressure. Regardless of a better than expected Chicago PMI report which came out at 50.0, the indexes closed lower for the session, the SP lost 7.75 points and settled at 1019.75, the Nasdaq lost 17.50 closing the day at 1625.00 and the Russell closed lower by 7.40 points at 571.70. The Dow lost 47 points finishing at 9496. Markets sold off during Tuesday’s trading session, heavy losses despite the better than expected ISM Manufacturing Index report which gave way to an early rally that failed and get furiously reversed pushing the indexes down on bank concerns, the SP lost 23.00 points and settled at 996.75, the Nasdaq closed lower at 1596.00 with a 29.00 points loss and the Russell finished the session at 557.30, minus 14.40 points. The Dow lost 185 points closing the day at 9310. Wednesday’s session markets consolidated the previous day wide range trading session, volumes continue to be light in front of the Friday’s unemployment data in this pre holiday week. On the economic news, ADP Employment data was higher than expected, Productivity up 6.6% and U.S. factory orders up 1.3%. The FOMC minutes indicated that the recession ended in August, and markets reacted with apathy to the news, the SP lost 2.50 points closing at 994.00, the Nasdaq ended lower by 3.75 points at 1591.75 and the Russell closed at 554.40, minus 3.10 points for the day. The Dow lost 29 points closing at 9280. Thursday’s session was more of the same, ultra light volumes and markets posting a narrow range session. The weekly Initial Claims data came out at 570K and Continuing Claims at 6.23 million, ISM Services Index was up but below the 50 mark. Friday’s started the day on the green and the pre opening announcement of the monthly job numbers gave way to a spike, before the opening markets gave back most of the gains, opened with a back and forth move that finally resulted in a good rally. The Unemployment rate reached 9.7%, a 26 year high but less jobs were lost during the month. For the day, the SP added 12.25 points closing at 1014.00, the Nasdaq which leaded the upside gained 31.75 points and settled at 1635.75 and the Russell closed higher by 7.20 points at 567.80.The Dow added 96 points closing the week at 9441. for the week all the markets closed with losses.




FRIDAY’S MARKET
Markets fluctuated during the nigh, before the opening, once the Unemployment numbers get released, the E-mini SP made a spike that reached 1009.75. With the normal volatility that carried the news, the index pushed down to 1000.50 and started the session at 1003.75. After backing off a couple of points, the SP bounced to 1006.50 where a double top gave way to a pullback that tested the after announcement low. The markets held and the SP rallied to 1008.25, it pulled back to 1004.00, it held and rallied once more. Once the Globex high get exceeded, the index made it to 1013.75. After a few minutes in which the markets traded in a sideways pattern, the SP pushed higher reaching 1015.75 where the rally stalled. Once more, the SP pulled back to the 1012.00 level and with lighter volumes it traded in a narrow range. After trading at 1011.50, the E-mini SP bounced near the daily highs. Unable to break higher, the index pulled back to 1012.50, posted a new marginal high at 1016.25 and pulled back into the close. For the day, the SP added 12.25 points closing at 1014.00, the Nasdaq which leaded the upside gained 31.75 points and settled at 1635.75 and the Russell closed higher by 7.20 points at 567.80.The Dow added 96 points closing the week at 9441.
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MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Markets rallied on the news trading solidly during all the session in a pre holiday Friday and closing near to best intraday levels, no profit taking was seen in front of the extended weekend. Last week trading activity, saw the SP failing to hold above the previous support levels as the Tuesday sell off pushed all the markets sharply lower. However, there was not follow through to the downside and after two days of narrow ranges and consolidation markets bounced once more during last Friday closing near resistance areas.
When a market is trading in this way, after a new high, and fails to trade higher and gets reversed, a short term top could be printed in the charts, but for that to happen, the initial correction has to last for more than three consecutive sessions or despite a wide range session in the opposite direction of the primary trend, like the one that happened last Tuesday, it is only a countertrend move that keeps the main trend intact.
Last week correction was not able to push lower, the 978.00 area from where the SP rallied to the last highs was not tested, the index posted a higher low. This does not give evidence that the index is ready to push to a new high, but that is the most probable scenario, but also a lower high could be seen.
So, if Friday’s move is the first step for another test of the highs or a new high, near the 1060.00 area that I have been calling during the past weeks, Tuesday has to be a positive session, I am not expecting a strong upside move, but I do expect the indexes to continue to push higher, last Tuesday’s highs around the 1028.50 area may be a good objective for the first trading day after the holiday. Watch closely the Nasdaq, 1650.00 will have to get exceeded in order to place that index in a strong position.





TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance around Friday’s highs at 1015.50-1017.00 on the SP, 1640.00-1642.00 on the Nasdaq and 569.00-570.10 on the Russell. If the day will be slow and markets will consolidate, those could hold, but if the bias is to the upside, the markets may reach 1019.00-1020.50 on the SP, 1648.50-1650.00 on the Nasdaq and 572.80-573.50 on the Russell. Those levels on the Nasdaq have acted as good resistance, so if a run to them gets reversed, be careful with any long trade, but if those get exceeded, look for the rally to continue as the indexes reach 1023.00-1023.50 on the SP, 1657.75-1658.50 on the Nasdaq and 575.30-577.00 on the Russell.



There may be good support at 1012.00-1011.00 on the SP, 1632.00-1630.00 on the Nasdaq and 565.50-564.30 on the Russell. Those levels are very important, on the SP, just above the 1010.00 level and at its weekly pivot, on the Nasdaq at the previous KEY resistance, the 1632.00 level. If those hold, we could see a strong session, but if they fail, look for weakness to reappear as the markets push down to 1007.00-1005.50 on the SP, 1625.75-1623.00 on the Nasdaq and 560.80-560.10 on the Russell. Failing to hold down there will probably result in a move to last Friday’s early lows at 1002.00-1000.50 on the SP, 1618.00-1618.00 on the Nasdaq and 556.80-555.20 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK.





TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1026.00-1028.00 1665.00-1666.00 579.80-580.50
Resistance 3 1023.00-1023.50 1657.75-1658.50 575.30-577.00
Resistance 2 1019.00-1020.50 1648.50.1650.00 572.80-573.50
Resistance 1 1015.50-1017.00 1640.00-1642.00 569.00-570.10
PIVOT 1010.00 1625.50 565.10
Support 1 1012.00-1011.00 1632.00-1630.00 565.50-564.30
Support 2 1007.00-1005.50 1625.75-1623.00 560.80-560.10
Support 3 1002.00-1000.50 1618.00-1616.00 556.80-555.20
Support 4 994.00-993.00 1612.50-1610.50 552.40-551.10



S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1085.31 1810.50 624.1
1058.79 1745.22 603.3
1042.54 1705.22 590.6
1032.50 1680.50 582.8
1026.29 1665.22 577.9
1016.25 1640.50 570.1
1010.04 1625.22 565.2
1008.13 1620.50 563.8
1006.21 1615.78 562.3
1000.00 1600.50 557.4
989.96 1575.78 549.6
983.75 1560.50 544.7
973.71 1535.78 536.9
957.46 1495.78 524.2
930.94 1430.50 503.4









DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1023.25 1658.00 575.20
AS DAILY LOW 1007.00 1618.00 562.60​












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