Daily Trading Advisory

[arturo1]

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 13-February-2009

Dear Traders: Next Monday I will be traveling to Mexico City from where I will work the next three months, please take in consideration that the next report will be posted on Wednesday February 18, thanks​

Initial Claims at 623K, continuing claims reaching 4.81 million and an unexpected increase in Retail sales of 1% and a global sentiment that the stimulus plan won’t be enough to revive the economy. Foreclosures push home prices to a five year low. Markets made a late-day comeback, hoping that homeowners will get more help with their mortgages.



ECONOMIC DATA
9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment – preliminary.

YESTERDAY’S MARKET
Concerns that the stimulus plan won’t help the global economy gave way to a negative Globex session where the futures markets tested and broke below their recent support areas. The E-mini SP started the session at 816.50 from where it pushed down to the 812.00 area. After our support areas were reached, the SP bounced back to 817.00 but fell quick to a new low at 811.25 and then to 808.25 from where it bounced to 814.50, pulled back to test our 810.00 support area and moved higher. After trading in a narrow range and leaded by the strength in the Nasdaq the SP reached 819.00. Unable to gain more upside momentum, the index pulled back to 812.00 where buyers stepped in pushing the markets up to their next resistance levels. The SP reached 822.00, held there and rallied to 825.00 where the rally lost its steam. The SP pulled back to 818.00 bounced back to 822.00 and get sold to 813.00 from where it bounced to 819.00 and sold off once more to test the lows. A feeble bounce failed at 815.00 and the index moved down to new intraday lows at 807.00, tried to bounce but with the increased selling pressure posted a new low at 805.50 where it stop me out from my last long trade just to rallied strong to 813.75 and then guided by positive news broke strongly higher reaching new daily highs at 836.75 during the last hour of the session. For the day, the SP added 4.00 points and closed at 835.50, the Nasdaq added 20.75 points and settled at 1245.25



MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “This is a trend pattern and a news guided market that makes difficult to predict the next move and where bulls and bears can not feel comfortable. A downside break of the last two sessions double bottom at 819.50 on the SP and the failure of the Dow to hold above the multi day support area at 7800 could give way to a breakdown move that could found support in the SP between the 800.00 and 790.00 area, and in the Dow, 7500 to 7400. On the upper side, the 840.00 area on the SP and the 8000 level in the Dow, even that they are critical to return to a neutral pattern does not mean that the downside risk has been eliminated, so markets has a lot of work to do before turning to the upside. I can not rule out another strong relative session, I can not rule out a sell off that gets reversed during the same session or the next day, but I do think that we are approaching support for the recent move, because of this, I think that also short traders remain in risk, any news, any economic report, good or bad, could trigger s strong rally.”

I mentioned yesterday the possibility that an early sell off could get strongly reversed and that is what happened. Yesterday’s highly bullish reversals in all of the indexes could head the markets higher during today’s session, no matter that it is a Friday and a long weekend as we have a holiday on next Monday.
The false break in the Dow that has redrawn the lower trend line has widened the ranges in that index, but the down move was not confirmed by the other indexes which managed to hold above their long term support areas.
Yesterday’s rally may have left many late sellers trapped at or near the lows, and even I am not convinced yet that this rally is the “good one”, I do think that it can run for a few more sessions and push the indexes to another test of the late highs, the 8350 area on the Dow and 875.00 level on the SP where markets will have to decide which direction to follow.
So for today’s trading session let’s try to stay with yesterday late trend thinking that this rally won’t get reversed before the end of next week when the February option expired.


TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at 839.50-841.00 on the SP, 1249.50-1251.00 on the Nasdaq and 455.30-457.10 on the Russell. Those levels on the SP are just at the 50% Fibonacci retracement between the November lows and January highs, so for the markets to resume their uptrend , they will have to get exceeded pushing the indexes up to 843.50-845.00 on the SP, 1258.00-1260.00 on the Nasdaq and 459.00-460.20 on the Russell. If those can not hold the positive upside momentum, look for the markets to reach 851.50-852.50 on the SP, 1268.50-1269.50 on the Nasdaq and 463.70-464.50 on the Russell.

There is strong support at the previous lows 832.50-830.50 on the SP, 1241.00-1239.50 on the Nasdaq and 451.50-449.70 on the Russell. Nothing bad happens all the time that the indexes hold above them, but if they fail, look for the next areas to get tested at 826.50-825.00 on the SP, 1233.00-1231.00 on the Nasdaq and 445.409-441.10 on the Russell. If the markets can not rally from there, these week double bottoms on the SP at 821.00-819.50 will have to hold or yesterday’s late rally could result in a dead cat bounce. GOOD LUCK

E-mini Dow YM Resistance areas at: 7963, 8015, and 8092.
Pivot 7848
Support areas at: 7859, 7800 and 7751.

GOOD LUCK.
.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 857.50-858.00 1276.00-1278.00 467.10-468.60
Resistance 3 851.50-852.50 1268.50-1269.50 463.70-464.50
Resistance 2 843.50-845.00 1258.00-1260.00 459.00-460.20
Resistance 1 839.50-841.00 1249.50-1251.00 455.30-457.10
PIVOT 826.00 1231.50 446.90
Support 1 832.50-830.50 1241.00-1239.50 451.50-449.70
Support 2 826.50-825.00 1233.00-1231.00 445.40-444.10
Support 3 821.00-819.50 1224.00-1222.00 441.90-440.10
Support 4 815.00-813.00 1216.00-1215.00 433.90-432.70


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
887.31 1319.00 486.38
879.94 1308.50 481.62
868.00 1291.50 473.90
856.06 1274.50 466.18
848.69 1264.00 461.42
836.75 1247.00 453.70
824.81 1230.00 445.98
821.13 1224.75 443.60
817.44 1219.50 441.22
805.50 1202.50 433.50
793.56 1185.50 425.78
786.19 1175.00 421.02
774.25 1158.00 413.30
762.31 1141.00 405.58
754.94 1130.50 400.82



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 851.75 1268.00 463.70
AS DAILY LOW 820.50 1223.00 443.50​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

 

[arturo1]

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 23-February-2009

CPI up 0.3%, global concerns about recession and investors worries that a financial bank rescue might involve nationalization of major banks wiping out shareholders pushed the Dow to levels not seen in eleven years but later in the session some of the losses were pared on a report that the Treasury Department will release some details of its plan to rescue the financial system next week.

WEEKLY PIVOTS FOR WEEK ENDING 27- February-2008
R3 808.00
R2 794.50
R1 781.50
PP 780.25
S1 757.00
S2 733.50
S3 714.00

ECONOMIC DATA
None
WEEKLY RECAP
Extensive losses for the world markets gave way to the worst week in the last three months. The major indexes lost more than 6% during this week. Fears that the recession will last at least for the rest of the year and that the Obama’s administartion stimulus and bailout plans on’t be enough to rescue the economy have resulted in a crisis of confidence. The holiday shortened week started Tuesday with weakness, the Empire State index showing a steep drop in the manufacturing area, Moody’s report about the growing recession all over the world and bank worries gave way to huge declines for the session, the SP lost 32.5 points and settled at 785.50, the Nasdaq lost 47.00 points closing the session at 1183.00 and the Russell ended at 427.80. The Dow lost 297 points closing the day at 7552. Wednesday’s session was fullñ of economic data, Housing Starts at a new 17 year low, Industrial Production and capacity utilization down, the automakers seeking additional funds and President Obama´s unveiled $75 billion housing program were so mixed that they failed to give investors a bit of confidence. Later in the session the Fed cut its 2009 growth forecast. With the markets showing some consolidation of the previous session huge losses, the SP lost 6.00 points ending the session at 779.50, the Nasdaq lost 2.50 points and settled at 1180.00 and the Russell ended lower by 6.60 points at 419.80. The Dow ended with a marginal gain at 7555. Thusday’s session started with some buying, the PPI data which showed a .4% increase in manufacturing cost ending the deflationary spiral, the weekly initial claims which came out steady for the week and the continuing claims which obviously continued to increase reaching almost 5 million and the leading indicators that came out above expectations, did not have the expected positive effect on the markets, the markets posted another consolidating session but the Dow closed at its lowest levels in 11 years. For the day, the SP ended almost unchanged at 779.00, the Nasdaq lost 10.00 points and settled at 1170.00 and the Russell ended lower 2.60 points at 417.10. The Dow lost 89 points ending the session at 7465. Friday’s session pushed the SP to levels not seen since last November, the Consumer price index which increased .3% couldn’ give investors a reason to saty on the buy side, banks were hammered as rumors about a nationalization that could erase equity value marked the session with pesimism, however, on technical oversold conditions, markets were able to close above their worst levels of the session. For the day, the SP lost 10.00 points and settled at 769.50, the Nasdaq ended higher by 1.25 points at 1171.25 and the Russell lost 7.50 points finishing the session at 409.20. The Dow lost another 100 points closing the week at 7365.


YESTERDAY’S MARKET
With the markets trading sharply lower during the Globex session in which the E-mini SP reached 861.25 , the index started the day at 762.50 from where it bounced to 766.25 where a small double top held the short covering rally attempt. After trading in a sideways pattern between the opening price and the early highs, the SP pushed higher reaching 769.50, pulled back to 767.00 and continued higher reaching 774.25, almost the previous session settlement. Unable to break higher, the SP pulled back to 766.75 and bounced back to 770.50, just below our updated resistance area, after a few attempts to break higher, the index finally pushed higher reachin 772.25 just to get sold pushing dow to 765.00 bounced a bit and pressed lower to a new low at 760.25. the SP bounced back to 764.50 and backed off posting a new marginal low at 760.00 from where it bounced back to 768.00, unable to recover and push above the 770.00 area, the SP backed off, consolidated around the 763.00 area and finally longs gave up resulting in a move to a new low at 757.25 and then to 752.50 where the carnage ended. The SP bounced back to 761.50, pulled back to 757.00 and rallied strong on a short covering rally reaching 774.00 where the move failed. The SP pulled back to 766.50 bounced back, checked once more the 766.00 area and leaded by the strengh on the NQ broke higher reaching 778.50 and sold off to 768.00. With continuing volatility, the index bounced back but get sold reaching 863.50 from where it bounced back a bit into the end of the session. For the day, the SP lost 10.00 points and settled at 769.50, the Nasdaq ended higher by 1.25 points at 1171.25 and the Russell lost 7.50 points finishing the session at 409.20. The Dow lost another 100 points closing the week at 7365.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “Yesterday´s early rally where the daily highs were done at the opening and the weak close with the Dow at multi year lows, has placed the indexes in a strong bearish position and if a strong rally does not start during today’s session, maybe after a negative opening, the downtrend could gain force and push the Dow to the 7000 area, at that level, the SP should be trading around the 720.00 level. Yesterday’s session where the SP showed a bearish consolidation, failure to hold gains, and close near the lows, will have to give way to a strong sell off where the market closes with big losses and does not recover during the same day or this index will set up a bear trapp. But meanwhile, bear trapp or new down leg, nothing good will happen unless theSP manages to come back above the 800.00 mark, and only then, will see. If the downside move continues, we could see a succesfull test of the November lows, a rally from the obvious support, and only if the SP will be able to hold above the 760.00, the test could be avoided. Many traders are calling for those lows to get tested, so it could happen very soon. The financial stocks keep leading the way down, fears of nationalization that get incresed by lower stock prices, and that could become a reality at least for institutions with big problems may happen before that sector comes back. So for today’s trading session, and considering that the markets will continue to show weakness selling the rallies near resistance areas should be the way to go, but beware of a bear market surprise that can result of a lower sell off that manages to hold above 760.00 or from another higher opening that leaves late shorts trapped at the recent almost perfect double bottom. Take into consideration that is a Friday, no many reasons to stay long for the weakend.”
Weakness has continue to be the name of the game, and friday was not the exception, the early sell off leaded by the collapsing value of the banks and the rumors that a nationalization may be near, resulted in a strong sell off that pushed the SP near the November lows and the Dow to its lowest levels in more than a decade, later in the session, more rumors, extreme oversold conditions or the February option expiration gave way to a strong short covering rally, that finally failed as the markets traded wildly.
The SP has finally came to a point where a few things can happen, the first scenario isd that last Friday lows are a higher low, above the November lows and the index will finally show some recovery leaving for the future the test, false break or break of the November lows. A second possibility, is that Friday’s lows hold and are not traded during today’s session or they get tested and hold posting a double bottom that for sure with result in a huge short covering rally. The third option, is that the SP breaks below last Friday lows and finally pushes down for a test, false break or break of the November lows that could push the SP much lower.
.



TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at 771.50-773.00 on the SP, 1175.00-1176.50 on the Nasdaq and 412.00-413.40 on the Russell, if the markets break above them, look for a test of 776.50-778.00 on the SP, 1180.00-1182.00 on the Nasdaq and 416.70-417.60 on the Russell. Friday´s late highs were just above those levels, so expect strong resistance there,if the trend will continue to be to the downside, markets should fail there, however, if we’ll see some strengh coming into the markets or some short covering look for the indexes to reach their next resistance areas at 782.00-784.00 on the SP, 1188.00-1190.00 on the Nasdaq and 420.20-421.00 on the Russell. If those can not hold the short covering rally, and the Dow is trading above the 7500 level, markets should press a bit higher pushing the SP near the 790.00 mark.
There is some support above Friday’s late lows at 766.50-765.00 on the SP, 1165.50-1163.00 on the Nasdaq and 406.10-405.00 on the Russell. If the markets open with a positive note, and we have a mild pullback, those may be able to hold and a good rally can start there, however if those can not hold, then the next areas at 762.00-760.50 on the SP, 1158.00-1156.00 on the Nasdaq and 401.40-400.80 on the Russell MUST invite buyersor a test of the Friday’s lows oon the SP won’t be avoided, pushing the markets down to 754.00-752.50 on the SP, 1151.00-1149.00 on the Nasdaq and 397.50-396.20 on the Russell. If those can not hold, the possible higher low scenario on the daily charts of the SP wont be valid as that index pushes down to the 741.00-739.00 November lows areas that could act as a magnet. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 788.00-789.50 1201.00-1203.00 425.40-426.50
Resistance 3 782.00-784.00 1188.00-1190.00 420.20-421.00
Resistance 2 776.50-778.00 1180.00-1182.00 416.70-417.60
Resistance 1 771.50-773.00 1175.00-1176.50 412.00-413.40
PIVOT 767.00 1168.50 408.80
Support 1 766.50-765.00 1165.50-1163.00 406.10-405.00
Support 2 762.00-760.50 1158.00-1156.00 401.40-400.80
Support 3 754.00-752.50 1151.00-1149.00 397.50-396.20
Support 4 741.00-739.00 1136.00-1134.00 393.50-391.80


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
823.19 1237.70 441.06
816.81 1229.80 437.44
806.50 1217.00 431.60
796.19 1204.20 425.76
789.81 1196.30 422.14
779.50 1183.50 416.30
769.19 1170.70 410.46
766.00 1166.75 408.65
762.81 1162.80 406.84
752.50 1150.00 401.00
742.19 1137.20 395.16
735.81 1129.30 391.54
725.50 1116.50 385.70
715.19 1103.70 379.86
708.81 1095.80 376.24



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 774.50 1194.00 412.80
AS DAILY LOW 747.50 1160.50 397.50​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
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[arturo1]

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 24-February-2009


Uncertanty about bank futures hit the markets. GE below $10 on concerns that its dividend may be cut. Markets close at their worst lecvels in the last 12 years.



ECONOMIC DATA
9:00 AM S&P CaseShiller Index
10:00 AM Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM Bernanke´s Monetray Policy Report



YESTERDAY’S MARKET
A positive globex session and opening for the equity markets failed to motivate buyers to stept in and push higher. With a Globexhigh at 786.50 on the SP, the E-mini Sp started the session just below 778.00 and trended down. With no buying coming into the markets the SP reached Friday’s 769.50 settlements from where a small bounce failed to gain any momentum. With the selling in force, the indexmoved all the way to the Globex 763.50lows and also failed to hold there. As the session continued, the SP pushed down to a new low at 758.50 where a small double bottom gave way to a feeble bounce to 762.00. Unable to push higher, the SP pushed to new lows at 757.00 and then to 753.25, near Friday’s lows. As prices continue to erode, the SP pushed lower to 748.25 from where it bounced back just above the old lows. Unable to poush higher the index pulled back to 749.00, tried once more to move higher. With more than one hour trading in a narrow range, the SP pushed up to 757.00 where the rally attempt failed. The SP pulled back to 751.50 but failed to hold sending the index to a new low at 744.00 from where it bounced back to 749.50 but sold off to a new intraday low at 741.50 from where it bounced to 748.25 but moved lower into the end of the session testing the November lows before bouncing a few points into the end of the session. For the day, the SP lost 24.50 points closing the session at 745.00, the Nasdaq ended lower by 36.25 at 1135.50 and the Russelllost 11.50 points and settled at 397.70. The Dow posted another negative session losing 250 points closing the day at 7114.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “The SP has finally came to a point where a few things can happen, the first scenario isd that last Friday lows are a higher low, above the November lows and the index will finally show some recovery leaving for the future the test, false break or break of the November lows. A second possibility, is that Friday’s lows hold and are not traded during today’s session or they get tested and hold posting a double bottom that for sure with result in a huge short covering rally. The third option, is that the SP breaks below last Friday lows and finally pushes down for a test, false break or break of the November lows that could push the SP much lower. The real problem to maintain a short position at this moment is the probability that even if the market continues to move lower breaking Friday's lows on the SP and Dow, the reversal from a new low or from a successful test of the November lows could be furious, and for position traders, stops may be placed at the 818.00 open gap on the SP, and that is because a countertrend move could push the index back up to the 804.00-808.00 levels. But for those already short, I would follow the 796.50 area, where the last double top can be found. Until now it seems that the game has been very easy for short traders, those who sell high, and those who are late and sell near the lows. I would not be surprised if a huge upside move, that shows follow through the next session leave shorts trapped, so every short position should be placed with a hard stop loss order.”

Uncertanty, lack of confidence and every rally attempt meeted by sellers have finally push the SP to the test of the November lows. Despite the bounce on the banking sector the markets couldn’t get any relief and all the other sectors ended with losses. The low, which tested the November lows is “obvious support” and it may be that we could see a one or two day rally. However, I was expecting that rally to happen during yesterday’s session and if the SP will open Tuesday below the 739.00 area, I can assume that it will be hard to come back, at least for a few sessions. At this moment we have to look for a new low to be printed in the daily charts, its magnitude? It can not be quantifying right now. If I follow the “gann traders”, the new low or false break may reach the 712.00 area, but if that level does not hold, the index could go for the 684.00 level. In order to avoid this bear scenario, the markets have a long way to go, a way full of double tops and an opened gap at the 818.00 level. So unless-until that gap gets filled, which certanly will occurr in the future, every rally may be seen as a selling opportunity.The fact that the SP closed bellow the 750.00 area has make valid the bear signal posted by the Dow once that index closed below 7500, and a second close below it will confirm it and much lower prices could be seen.The problem with this scenario, is that we are in an irrational market which continue to be guided by rumors and speculation which at any moment could give way to a strong short covering rally. The bank nationalization certanly could give way to a total collapse and capitulation, but that may be needed to end this bear campaign.
With the indexes trading almost at new lows, but with a close above the November lows and the Dow at the bottom of its trend chanel we could see some bouncing that may get some upside momentum above the 7200 area on the Dow and the 753.00 level on the SP, and further advance if during the next two sessions the Dow breaks back above the 7400 level; then the test of 7500 will be the break or make for that index.
So for today’s trading session, the logic calls for lower prices, but this game has been easy for the short traders and that is the reason that big players have reduced the size of their positions, as a huge short covering rally could start from nothing more than a rumor, a false break for day traders, may found support just above 734.50, however, avoid any long trade once the SP breaks below the November lows by more than 2.00-4.00 points, but a good signal for a furious short covering rally could come from the SP trading above the 753.25 area and the Dow above 7250. Take into account that many institutional traders are sitting in the sidelines.






TODAY’S SESSION
There is strong resistance at 749.50-751.00 on the SP, 1142.00-1143.00 on the Nasdaq and 400.40-402.6 0on the Russell, if the markets break above them, look for a test of 755.00-756.50 on the SP, 1149.00-1150.00 on the Nasdaq and 406.00-408.10 on the Russell. Those were the late important highs during yesterday’s rebound attempt, a double top there will be catastrophic for the markets, as double tops on a bear trend usually get resolved to the downside, but if the markets are strong and the short covering is furious, look for the rally to continue higher reaching levels near last Friday’s settlements at 765.00-766.50 on the SP, 1158.00-1160.50 on the Nasdaq and 411.50-412.90 on the Russell.

There is obvious support at 740.00-739.00 on the SP, 1129.00-1128.00 on the Nasdaq and 396.00-394.20 on the Russell, if those can not hold, look for the indexes to test lower levels at6 734.50-732.00 on the SP, 1122.00-1120.50 on the Nasdaq and 391.50-389.80 on the Russell. If we are in front of a false break and a bear trap will happen, those may hold, but if the markets do not rebound from those levels, look for some panic selling that should drive prices much lower testing at least 727.00-725.00 on the SP, 1110.00-1108.00 on the Nasdaq and 384.90-383.60 on the Russell. If buyers don’t bid strong those areas, markets will accelerate the downward trend and the last support before the total capitulation will be found at 717.00 on the SP. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 770.00-772.00 1174.00-1175.00 416.00-418.50
Resistance 3 765.00-766.50 1158.00-1160.50 411.50-412.90
Resistance 2 755.00-756.50 1149.00-1150.00 406.00-408.10
Resistance 1 749.50-751.00 1142.00-1143.00 400.40-402.60
PIVOT 757.00 1152.50 403.50
Support 1 740.00-739.00 1129.00-1128.00 396.00-394.20
Support 2 734.50-732.00 1122.00-1120.50 391.50-389.80
Support 3 727.00-725.00 1110.00-1108.00 384.90-383.60
Support 4 719.00-717.00 1094.00-1092.00 378.60-377.20


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
862.14 1310.88 457.36
851.11 1294.12 451.64
833.25 1267.00 442.40
815.39 1239.88 433.16
804.36 1223.12 427.44
786.50 1196.00 418.20
768.64 1168.88 408.96
763.13 1160.50 406.10
757.61 1152.12 403.24
739.75 1125.00 394.00
721.89 1097.88 384.76
710.86 1081.12 379.04
693.00 1054.00 369.80
675.14 1026.88 360.56
664.11 1010.12 354.84



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 765.75 1165.50 408.20
AS DAILY LOW 719.00 1095.00 384.00​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
Index Futures Information Services - Emini Trading Advisory and Trading Alerts | TheMiniTrade.com
5850 Coral Ridge Dr. Suite 303

 

[arturo1]

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 25-February-2009

JP Morgan cutting its dividend for first time in 19 years,S&P CaseShiller Index down 18.5% year to year. Consumer Confidence lower than expected.Bernanke’s testimony indicates a severe economic contraction but markets rally on his banks remarks.


ECONOMIC DATA
10:00 AM Existing Home Sales
10:35 AM Crude Inventories



YESTERDAY’S MARKET
After trading higher during the Globex session, futures prices eroded as the opening bell approached. The E-mini SP started the session at 748.25 and backed off to 746.50 from where it bounced to 750.00. Leaded by the Nasdaq, the SP pushed higher reaching 752.75, and after a pullback to the 750.00 area, it continued higher to a new marginal high at 753.50. Unable toi break higher and once the test of the Bernanke’s testimony the SP sold off to 744.50 but managed to hold bouncing back to 748.50 but failed to push higher and backed off once more to 743.50. After posting a succesful test of the daily and November lows, the index pushed higher reaching 754.25 posting a small double top just below the Globex high. After a mild pullback to the 751.00 level the rally from the lows continued moving the SP up to 757.75 where the rally lost its steam. After pulling back to 852.00, the index traded in a sideways pattern that finally broke lower pushing the SP down to 747.75 from where it bounced back to 752.00. Unable to continue higher the index pulled back to 746.25, just above our updated intrady support. After holding the support area and once the SP got back above the 750.00 level, it pushed up for another test of the 755.50, a last pullback to 751.50 was bided strongly and a uptrend move started. With not too much problems the SP reached the 760.00area and after holding there for a while pushed up to the next level at 765.00.Another mild pullback held and the indexes continue higher, the E-mini SP reached 768.00 traded in a sideways pattern and pushed up to 775.00 where a double top ended the short covering rally. Just before the close the futures markets backed off closing below fair value. For the day the SP added 23.75 points and settled at 768.75, the Nasdaq gained 27.75 points closing the session at 1163.75 and the Russell added 11.20 points finishing the session at 409.40. The Dow added 236 points closing the day at 7350.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “With the indexes trading almost at new lows, but with a close above the November lows and the Dow at the bottom of its trend chanel we could see some bouncing that may get some upside momentum above the 7200 area on the Dow and the 753.00 level on the SP, and further advance if during the next two sessions the Dow breaks back above the 7400 level; then the test of 7500 will be the break or make for that index.So for today’s trading session, the logic calls for lower prices, but this game has been easy for the short traders and that is the reason that big players have reduced the size of their positions, as a huge short covering rally could start from nothing more than a rumor, a false break for day traders, may found support just above 734.50, however, avoid any long trade once the SP breaks below the November lows by more than 2.00-4.00 points, but a good signal for a furious short covering rally could come from the SP trading above the 753.25 area and the Dow above 7250. Take into account that many institutional traders are sitting in the sidelines.”

Finally the markets were able to post a positive session after a six day sell off. The rebound from the succcesful test of the November lows, obvious support, was something to be expected, and this countertrend rally could last another two sessions, but a sell off that erases the contertrend move and gains in one session and makes a new low will be quite bearish. By this I mean that if the markets won’t continue to move higher during today’s trading session, follow through, then the bearish scenario will remain intact and yesterday’s rally will be the minimum time window on a first degree countertrend.
Monday’s huge sell off has not been completely reversed and even if we consider the possibility that the markets are ready to continue to move higher and maybe push strong to close the open gap at 818.00 on the SP, after two trend sessions, one to the downside and the other one pushing up, we could see a consolidation session were the indexes trade both sides of the market, so soma back and forth action could be seen before the indexes decide the next move.
The Dow, which has been trading down for the last three weeks and has been the weakest of all the major indexes could easily see yesterday’s gains erased if it starts to trade below the 7280 level, on the other side of the coin, additional short covering could be seen above the 7420 area.
So, if the last two day’s sell off and rally will consolidate, trading opportunities may be found on an early sell off or a rally that lost its momentum near yesterday’s highs.


TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance just below yesterday’s highs at 772.00-774.25 on the SP, 1168.50-1171.00 on the Nasdaq and 411.00-412.70 on the Russell, an early test of those areas, a double top could trigger a nice sell off that pushes the SP down to the 755.50 area, but if the markets want to continue higher, look for the next resistance areas at 777.00-778.00 on the SP, 1176.00-1178.50 on the Nasdaq and 415.00-416.20 on the Russell to get tested. Once more, if the rally fails there look for a good pullback, but if those areas do not hold the short covering pressure, look for the markets to continue higher reaching 781.00-782.25 on the SP, 1183.00-1184.00 on the Nasdaq and 419.20-420.50 on the Russell.

There may be good support at 765.00-763.50 on the SP, 1158.00-1156.00 on the Nasdaq and 407.80-406.50 on the Russell, breaking bellow them could give way to some selling, but if the next support areas at 760.00-759.00 on the SP, 1151.50.1150.00 on the Nasdaq and 403.80-402.60 on the Russell, hold, look for a good rally that could reach yesterday’s highs. If those can not hold, the indexes may be ready for a test of yesterday’s pivotal levels at 756.00-753.50 on the SP, 1139.00-1138.00 on the Nasdaq and 399.60-398.80 on the Russell., If those can not hold the selling pressure, then the 750.00 area will have to hold or yesterday’s rally may be gone. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 786.50-788.00 1190.00-1192.00 423.80-425.50
Resistance 3 781.00-782.25 1183.00-1184.00 419.20-420.50
Resistance 2 777.00-778.00 1176.00-1178.50 415.00-416.20
Resistance 1 772.00-774.25 1168.50-1171.00 411.00-412.70
PIVOT 762.25 1157.75 405.90
Support 1 765.00-763.50 1158.00-1156.00 407.80-406.50
Support 2 760.00-759.00 1151.50.1150.00 403.80-402.60
Support 3 756.00-753.50 1139.00-1138.00 399.60-398.80
Support 4 750.00-748.50 1129.50-1128.00 394.20-393.10

S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
908.63 1362.69 489.2
857.22 1291.29 460.0
825.72 1247.54 442.1
806.25 1220.50 431.0
794.22 1203.79 424.2
774.75 1176.75 413.1
762.72 1160.04 406.3
759.00 1154.88 404.2
755.28 1149.71 402.0
743.25 1133.00 395.2
723.78 1105.96 384.1
711.75 1089.25 377.3
692.28 1062.21 366.2
660.78 1018.46 348.3
609.38 947.06 319.1












DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 787.50 1192.00 420.20
AS DAILY LOW 756.00 1148.25 404.30​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

 

[arturo1]

Daily trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 02-March-2009
GDP minus 6.2%, weakest performance since 1982 Chicago PMI slightly above the last month readings and Michigan Sentiment below expectations; Citi shares plunge on bigger government stake. Markets close below their November lows.

WEEKLY PIVOTS FOR WEEK ENDING 06- March-2009
R3 792.75
R2 770.50
R1 749.75
PP 750.00
S1 729.00
S2 702.50
S3 693.00

ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM Personal Income.
8:30 AM Personal Spending
8:30 AM Core PCE
10:00 AM Construction Spending
10:00 AM ISM Index

WEEKLY RECAP
Another terrible week for the global equity markets. Monday’s trading session started with a strong advance, but the early gains eroded as the markets ended the session with substantial losses and with the SP testing the November lows. Concerns about the banking sector, rumors of nationalization and GE trading below $10.00 were some of the headlines. For the day, the SP lost 24.50 points closing the session at 745.00, the Nasdaq ended lower by 36.25 at 1135.50 and the Russell lost 11.50 points and settled at 397.70. The Dow lost 250 points closing the day at 7114. Tuesday, the market bounced fro what it appeared to be a successful test of the November lows on the SP. JP Morgan reduced its dividend, an action that lifted the banking sector. The S&P CaseShiller Index was down 18.5% year to year, worst than expected, also, the Consumer Confidence report was bad, however Bernanke's testimony, which indicated a severe economic contraction that may end in 2009 with an expected recovery for the next years and on his banks remarks gave the markets a reason to rally, the SP added 23.75 points and settled at 768.75, the Nasdaq gained 27.75 points closing the session at 1163.75 and the Russell added 11.20 points finishing the session at 409.40. The Dow added 236 points closing the day at 7350. Wednesday’s trading session was full of volatility, the Existing Home sales report which came out at its lowest level since 1997 gave way during the early going to a sell off in all the equity markets, as the indexes found support above the Monday’s lows, markets were able to bounce closing with moderate losses, the SP lost 7.25 points and settled at 761.50, the Nasdaq lost 9.50 points ending the session at 1154.00 and the Russell lost 11.50 points closing at 397.90. Thursday’s trading session saw the futures trading higher during the Globex session, but the Initial Claims report which increased the benefit applications to 667K, the Continuing Claims above 5 million, the New Home Sales report at a new record low and the Durable Goods orders minus 5.2%; and GM $30.9 billion annual loss gave way to a negative session, the SP lost 9.50 points and closed at 752.00, the Nasdaq lost 21.75 points and settled at 1132.25 and the Russell ended lower by 4.00 points at 393.90. The Dow which showed strength for most of the session gave back its early earnings closing lower by 88 points at 7182. “Thanks God is Friday”, screamed investors as the week and month ended with the main indexes at their worst levels in more than twelve years, with the lows in place during the nightly session, markets opened with a bunch of bad news, the fourth quarter GDP showing a 6.2% contraction, the Michigan sentiment confidence report well below expectation as a consequence of higher unemployment and the news that the government will have a bigger stake on the company converting preferred shares in to common stock, and GE cutting its dividend for the first time since 1938 in an effort to maintain its AAA credit rating pushed the markets to their worst close after a few recovery attempts failed to push the SP above the 750.00 area, for the day, the SP lost 17.75 points and settled at 733.00, the Nasdaq ended lower by 15.25 points at 1117.00 and the Russell closed at 388.50, minus 5.40. The Dow extended its losses, minus 119 points closing the session at 7062.




FRIDAY’S MARKET
After trading sharply lower during the Globex session, the E-mini SP started the day at 735.00 from where it bounced a couple of points, pulled back to 733.00 and then in a short covering rally reached 743.00.The SP pulled back to 737.50, bounced to 739.50 and backed off to 737.00 where buyers stepped. The SP rallied strong reaching 746.75 where the rally lost its steam. A pullback to the 740.50 area gave buyers a second chance to join the short covering rally pushing the index up to the previous highs. After posting a double top, the SP backed off to 738.00 just to get bought and once it traded above the 742.00 level it pushed up to a new intraday high at 748.00. Another pullback to 743.00 gave way to new buying pushing the SP to 749.00.After a few attempts to break higher, the SP pulled back to 742.00 and rallied for another test of the highs which failed to break higher and sent the E-mini SP lower to 739.25 from where it bounced back strongly to new intraday high at 751.00. Unable to continue higher, the SP moved down to 740.00 from where it bounced to 747.50.A double top invited sellers and the SP sold off to 734.50, bounced to 741.25 but failed to continue higher and pulled back to check the intraday lows. Another rally attempt managed to gain some momentum just to fail at 743.75 giving way to a new sell off that managed to reach 734.25, bounced a bit but pushed lower closing at the daily lows. For the day, the SP lost 17.75 points and settled at 733.00, the Nasdaq ended lower by 15.25 points at 1117.00 and the Russell closed at 388.50, minus 5.40. The Dow extended its losses, minus 119 points closing the session at 7062.

.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Friday I wrote: “Yesterday’s negative and choppy session, in which the SP and Dow were rejected from their respective resistance areas at 780.00 and 7400, a double top has placed the index in a break position with strong evidence that the downtrend could be stronger than expected and ready to get resumed. Yesterday I wrote that the previous session highs would be the “line in the sand” if the markets would be pushing up at least for the next two sessions, well, instead of breaking higher, markets posted a double top, and double tops on a bear trend usually get broken to the downside. I also wrote a few days ago that the fact that the Dow broke and keeps trading below the 7500 area indicates much lower prices, but I was waiting for a confirmation of the SP, two consecutive closes below the 750.00 mark. So the markets are at a critical position in which a new low could give way to another wide down leg in this bear market, or the floor that comes in play at 750.00 on the SP and 7120 on the Dow will finally prove to be a very strong support area and give the indexes the catalyst to start to press higher. The fact that the SP has not been able to hold its gains, the fact that the Nasdaq which was showing a bullish divergence that has slowly evaporated during the last sessions and the continuing weakness in the Dow Jones does not print a nice picture, and with today’s economic data, a Friday, the last day of the month, the indexes could close at new lows. In fact, the only positive news is that the indexes could continue to trade in a sideways pattern defined by the 740.00 to 800.00 area on the SP and 7100 to 7400 on the Dow. The trend is down and the last two days rally attempts have not changed that situation. For today’s trading session, an early test of the 740.00’s on the SP or a break above the 760.50 area could give way to another rally attempt, but all the time that the SP is trading below the 750.00 mark trying to get long could represent a huge risk.”
The lower opening and the failure on the SP to trade back above the 750.00 mark, have almost confirmed the new down leg on the bear market, a second close below the 750.00 level, will be the final confirmation. The fact that the indexes closed near the daily lows could indicate a temporary exhausting condition on last week sell off, but trying to be optimistic under the current circumstances does not look realistic, by that I mean that even if we see a rally attempt on Monday’s trading session, the markets are under extreme pressure, and only a rally that exceed more than four trading sessions could be an indication that Fridays new low on the SP is a false break. The 7000 level on the Dow, in case that Friday’s lows hold, could give some support for that index, and a rally above the 7200 area may indicate a rebound to 7400-7450, but as in the SP this markets need more much evidence that a short term low is in place. Last week I wrote that a 48 hours rally that ends on a new low on the SP will look highly bearish on the daily charts, obviously, that is what happened during Friday’s session. If it was the end of month or a Friday which took the indexes to their weak close as funds wanted to clear their end of month results, I don’t know, but the charts does not look good. I wouldn’t’ be surprised if we see a rally attempt, but I will try to maintain a clear profit objective if that rally happens and I am on the right side of the trade. So on a lower opening look for signs of life, as the current oversold conditions and the already extended sell off could find support at one of our levels, also a break below the 7000 area in the Dow which gets reversed later in the session could give way to a strong short covering rally. I don’t have to repeat that for short traders, any new low represent a higher risk on their positions, and if the markets find some temporary support during the week, the 770.00-780.00 band on the SP could get reached once more.
The breakdown below the 750.00 level on the SP has an initial downside objective around 696.00, but if those levels fail to hold, then the 670.00’s could get tested during the coming sessions. I assume that if the downtrend will continue, it will be fast, but may be that the SP won’t spend too much time below the November lows, and after coming back, a mid term consolidation between the new lows, that we may see during this week and the 820.00 area where there is a gap that will have to get filled in the future.
This is a very complicated and critical week for the markets, a lot of economic reports will be released, Personal income and spending during today’s session, the ISM indexes and the Fed’s Beige book and then to culminate the week, the February unemployment figures which analyst expect to show additional deterioration.

TODAY’S SESSION
There is initial resistance at 740.00-741.25 on the SP, 1120.00-1122.00 on the Nasdaq and 389.90-391.20 on the Russell, an early bounce that fail to trade above those levels could give way to a sell off that could reach the 725.00 area on the SP, but if the markets break above them, look for the bounce to reach 745.00-746.00 on the SP, 1126.00-1127.50 on the Nasdaq and 393.40-394.90 on the Russell. If there is additional short covering, look fort a test of the KEY levels at 748.75-750.25 on the SP, 1133.00-1134.50 on the Nasdaq and 397.80-398.50 on the Russell. All the time that the markets keep trading below those levels the downtrend remains intact.
There is initial support at last Friday Globex lows at 731.50-729.50 on the SP, 1114.00-1111.50 on the Nasdaq and 387.00-385.80 on the Russell. If the indexes hold there a good short covering rally could be seen, if those do not hold, look for STRONG support at 726.50-725.00 on the SP, 1106.00-1103.50 on the Nasdaq and 382.10-381.50 on the Russell. If markets are ready to rebound for a few days, buyers may be ready to enter at those areas, however, if they fail to hold, the indexes could test their next levels at 719.50-718.50 on the SP, 1098.00-1096.00 on the Nasdaq and 378.00-376.60 on the Russell before they are able to bounce. GOOD LUCK
.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 758.00-760.00 1142.00-1144.00 403.40-404.40
Resistance 3 748.75-750.25 1133.00-1134.50 397.80-398.50
Resistance 2 745.00-746.00 1126.00-1127.50 393.40-394.90
Resistance 1 740.00-741.25 1120.00-1122.50 389.90-391.20
PIVOT 740.00 1121.00 390.00
Support 1 731.50-729.50 1114.00-1111.50 387.00-385.80
Support 2 726.50-725.00 1106.00-1103.50 382.10-381.50
Support 3 719.50-718.50 1098.00-1096.00 378.00-376.60
Support 4 713.50-712.00 1089.00-1087.50 368.60-367.10







S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
868.63 1272.63 461.1
825.38 1221.22 436.9
798.88 1189.72 422.1
782.50 1170.25 413.0
772.38 1158.22 407.3
756.00 1138.75 398.2
745.88 1126.72 392.5
742.75 1123.00 390.8
739.62 1119.28 389.1
729.50 1107.25 383.4
713.12 1087.78 374.3
703.00 1075.75 368.6
686.62 1056.28 359.5
660.12 1024.78 344.7
616.88 973.38 320.5








DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 745.00 1127.00 393.40
AS DAILY LOW 718.50 1096.25 378.60​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

 

[arturo1]

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 03-March-2009


AIG mammoth size fourth quarter loss, GE shares hit 16 year low Consumer Spending up .4%, ISM better than expected but still falling and Construction Spending down 3.3%.Markets continue to plunge.


ECONOMIC DATA
10:00 AM Pending Home sales
2:00 PM Auto Sales
2:00 PM Truck Sales



YESTERDAY’S MARKET
Markets plunged hard during the Globex session on concerns about banks and AIG huge loss. The E-mini SP started the session at 720.00 from where it pulled back to 717.00.a double bottom at that level gave way to an early short covering rally that pushed the SP to 724.00. The index pulled back to 720.00, bounced to 723.50 and get sold reaching 715.75. After holding there for a few minutes the SP bounced to 719.00, backed off to 716.25 and after trading in a narrow range and pushed down to 712.25, just one point above the Globex lows. With the Nasdaq trying to hold, the SP bounced to 715.75 but the short covering rally failed once more. The index continued to slide and posted a low at 705.50. After holding there, the SP bounced to 709.50, pulled back to posting a higher low and rallied to 710.00 where the bounce lost its momentum. The SP pulled back and continued to slide making new lows, after holding at the 703.00 area. After holding the low, the SP bounced back to 706.50 and continued higher to 710.75. With the Nasdaq failing to break higher, the SP pulled back to 704.75 from where it rallied to 712.25. After a few attempts to break higher, the rally failed and the SP fell to new lows into the end of the session. For the day, the SP lost 28.75 points and settled at 705.50, the Nasdaq lost 33.00 ending the session at 1074.25 and the Russell lost 18.20 closing at 370.30. The Dow lost 299 points closing the day at 6763.

.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “The lower opening and the failure on the SP to trade back above the 750.00 mark, have almost confirmed the new down leg on the bear market, a second close below the 750.00 level, will be the final confirmation. I don’t know, but the charts do not look good. The breakdown below the 750.00 level on the SP has an initial downside objective around 696.00, but if those levels fail to hold, then the 670.00’s could get tested during the coming sessions. I assume that if the downtrend will continue, it will be fast, but may be that the SP won’t spend too much time below the November lows, and after coming back, a mid term consolidation between the new lows, that we may see during this week and the 820.00 area where there is a gap that will have to get filled in the future.”


After starting the session well below last Friday’s settlement and under heavy selling pressure, markets dropped steadily during all the sessions. The daily intraday highs were posted during the first hour of the session and all the short covering rallies failed to gain upside momentum.
The second consecutive close for the SP below the 750.00 level has already resulted in prices well below that area, and the failure of the Dow to get above the 7000 area, even during the trading session has given the downtrend a new impulse, the new leg of this bear campaign, which could be the last and fastest probably will push the indexes much lower, the immediately short term objectives may be around the 6500 for the Dow and 670.00 for the SP.
The story continues to be the same, oversold conditions, selling pressure without any real panic and markets which continue to erode waiting for a catalyst to reverse the current trend have already pushed the indexes to their worst levels in many years, and any rally seem to be only a selling opportunity as short traders continue to dominate the action. In one of my newsletters I wrote that the SP was ready to break the November lows but probably won’t spend too much sessions below it, I still think that the 750-00 area will be traded again, but trying to call a low and catch a falling knife just seem to be too risky.
Today’s Late highs at 712.50 on the SP and the 6900 area on the Dow, if exceeded, could result in short term strength, but that could be only a consequence of the upcoming labor market report that will induce shorts to take some of their profits. If yesterday’s wide range down session has posted a short term low, the SP will have to open higher and never look back, or hold posting a double bottom at yesterday’s lows. The 700.00 level in the SP is very important, and we were looking for a daily false break that holds between the 717.00 and 697.00 areas, but if yesterday’s lows wont hold, the SP could reach the 670.00 area and if that level does not hold, then the 636.00-630.00 will be the objective for this leg.
With the markets at new lows and with a trend session, I will expect some back and forth action, but if the SP opens higher, above the 712.50 area and the Nasdaq above 1092.00 I will try to be a buyer on the pullbacks as some rebound could be seen. Yesterday’s 705.50-704-00 on the SP was pivotal, so even that this levels do not coincide with my updated numbers, I will use them as secondary pivot levels for market direction.

TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at 709.00-711.50 on the SP, 1092.00-1093.50 on the Nasdaq and 372.30-373.80 on the Russell, if the market opens above them look for some early short covering that could push the indexes to their next levels at 715.00-716.50 on the SP, 1198.00-1100.00 the Nasdaq and 376.80-378.10 on the Russell. If the rally fails there look for the selling to resume testing at least yesterday’s settlements. However if those areas get exceeded look for the bounce to catch some upside momentum pressing the markets higher to their next areas at 719.75-721.00 on the SP, 1109.00-1110.00 on the Nasdaq and 382.00-383.60 on the Russell .



There is support at 702.00-699.50 on the SP, 1181.00-1079.50on the Nasdaq and 368.50-366.70 on the Russell. A double bottom there could give way to a good rebound, but if the selling pressure continues look for the markets to test 695.50-694.50 on the SP, 1073.00-1071.50 on the Nasdaq and 364.00-362.80 on the Russell. Those may hold, at least the first time they get tested, but if they fail, don’t try to pick a bottom as the indexes could continue to press lower reaching 691.00-689.50 on the SP, 1063.25-1061.00 on the Nasdaq and 359.50-358.60 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 724.75-726.50 1118.00-1121.00 387.60-388.20
Resistance 3 719.75-721.00 1109.00-1110.00 382.00-383.60
Resistance 2 715.00-716.50 1198.00-1100.00 376.80-378.10
Resistance 1 709.00-711.50 1092.00-1093.50 372.30-373.80
PIVOT 712.50 1092.00 374.30
Support 1 702.00-699.50 1181.00-1079.50 368.50-366.70
Support 2 695.50-694.50 1073.00-1071.50 364.00-362.80
Support 3 691.00-689.50 1063.25-1061.00 359.50-358.60
Support 4 686.00-684.00 1054.50-1052.00 354.60-353.20








S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
882.50 1293.44 469.9
825.38 1225.30 437.8
790.38 1183.55 418.1
768.75 1157.75 405.9
755.38 1141.80 398.4
733.75 1116.00 386.2
720.38 1100.05 378.7
716.25 1095.13 376.4
712.12 1090.20 374.0
698.75 1074.25 366.5
677.12 1048.45 354.3
663.75 1032.50 346.8
642.12 1006.70 334.6
607.12 964.95 314.9
550.00 896.81 282.8














DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 719.50 1101.00 378.30
AS DAILY LOW 684.50 1059.25 358.60​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

 

[arturo1]

Daily Trading Advisory 04-March-2009

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 04-March-2009

AMEX cutting cards limits, Pending Home Sales fell 7.7% double than expected, U.S: may need more bailout money to save the banks. Auto slump continues, markets closed at new lows, the SP below 700 for the first time since 1996.


ECONOMIC DATA
8:15 AM ADP Employment
10:00 AM ISM Services
10:35 AM Crude Inventories
2:00 PM FED Beige Book



YESTERDAY’S MARKET
After trading slightly higher during the Globex session, the E-mini SP started the day at 711.00 and pushed up one point from where it pulled back to 707.50. With the Nasdaq holding its early support area at 1086.00, the SP bounced back to 711.00.Unable to break higher, the index pushed down to 705.00 bounced to 709.50 and sold off to 703.00. After holding that level the SP bounced to 709.00.as the selling pressure continued, the SP pulled back posting a new marginal low at 701.75. Once more the index bounced reaching 706.75, and after trading in a sideways pattern for a few minutes, the SP tested once more the 703.00 area and bounced back to 708.00. Unable to gain upside momentum, the SP sold off to a new intraday low at 700.50, after a small bounce the SP sold off to a new low at 692.50. The SP bounced to 697.00 but failed to break higher and pushed to a new low at 691.25, trying to hold the lows the index bounced to the previous 697.00 area and once it broke above it reached 703.00.After failing to break higher the SP pulled back to 698.00, bounced to 701.00 and fell test the lows from where another bouncing attempt reaching 704.00. Once that area got exceeded the rally continued reaching 709.00, the index pulled back to 703.25. After testing its support area the SP bounced back near the 710.00 area but failed to break higher. The index pulled back to 702.00, bounced a couple of points, tested twice the 700.00, bounced to 704.00 and sold off to 693.50, bounced to 699.50 and sold off to new lows into the end of the session. For the day, the SP lost 16.00 points and settled at 689.50, the Nasdaq ended lower by 14.00 at 1072.00 and the Russell closed at 357.40, 12.90 points lower. The Dow lost 37 ´points closing the day at 6726.


.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “The second consecutive close for the SP below the 750.00 level has already resulted in prices well below that area, and the failure of the Dow to get above the 7000 area, even during the trading session has given the downtrend a new impulse, the new leg of this bear campaign, which could be the last and fastest probably will push the indexes much lower, the immediately short term objectives may be around the 6500 for the Dow and 670.00 for the SP. Today’s Late highs at 712.50 on the SP and the 6900 area on the Dow, if exceeded, could result in short term strength, but that could be only a consequence of the upcoming labor market report that will induce shorts to take some of their profits. If yesterday’s wide range down session has posted a short term low, the SP will have to open higher and never look back, or hold posting a double bottom at yesterday’s lows. The 700.00 level in the SP is very important, and we were looking for a daily false break that holds between the 717.00 and 697.00 areas, but if yesterday’s lows wont hold, the SP could reach the 670.00 area and if that level does not hold, then the 636.00-630.00 will be the objective for this leg. With the markets at new lows and with a trend session, I will expect some back and forth action, but if the SP opens higher, above the 712.50 area and the Nasdaq above 1092.00 I will try to be a buyer on the pullbacks as some rebound could be seen. Yesterday’s 705.50-704-00 on the SP was pivotal, so even that these levels do not coincide with my updated numbers, I will use them as secondary pivot levels for market direction.”

The SP lost ground once more after a higher opening and a few rally attempts. The fact that the SP and Dow held above the bottom of the down trending channel that has been formed during the last three weeks, could give way to a short term rally that test the upper boundary very soon. However, the fact that the SP closed below the 700.00 level which is closely watch by many institutions indicates that this market is in a capitulation move on this last leg of the bear trend. By the time that I am writing my report the index is already trading at lower levels, and for this downtrend to get reversed, only a higher opening or a rally that last for more than four sessions has to be seen.
So the game has been very easy, selling the bounces has worked out well, but the increased open interest is indicating that a bear market rally could be near. The problem is to calculate the extension that this capitulation can reach. On one of my previous reports I have mentioned the 670.00 area as a strong support level, but with the markets moving lower without real panic, the low could be much lower. Nothing seems to create the catalyst that the markets need to rebound, but once it happens, the rally could get a strong momentum. Meanwhile the 700.00 level on the SP, could prevent investors from getting back in the markets all the time that the index remains below it, and certainly limit speculators like me to keep trying to catch the “low”.
What I can tell you for sure, is that selling at these levels is risky, to be a late seller in this market could result in huge losses, so if you are not already with a short position, trade the markets, but beware of staying short without a protective stop. There are many reports to get released during the session, the ADP Employment report which measures the private job market, then the ISM Services index and later in the night the Fed’s Beige Book, I am sure all of them will highly impact the session.
For today’s trading session, I can not rule out a strong weak opening or another negative wide range down session, and if the indexes are on the capitulation move, the selling could be very fast. For those who try to play the long side of the markets, at any moment you could be mounted at the winning horse, but tight stops on any long position won’t hurt anybody.

TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at 691.75-693.50 on the SP, 1076.00-1078.00 on the Nasdaq and 359.70-361.50on the Russell, if the markets are weak, those areas may hold, but if we see some short covering look for the indexes to reach 697.00-698.00 on the SP, 1083.00-1084.50 on the Nasdaq and 364.60-366.00 on the Russell. Those may be a great area to get short, however if the rally is serious, look for the markets to test 702.50-704.00 on the SP; 1091.00-1093.50 on the Nasdaq and 369.80-371.20 on the Russell. Only trading above those levels could indicate that a short term low has been posted.

There is some support at 686.00-684.50 on the SP, 1067.00-1066.00 on the Nasdaq and 355.30-353.80 on the Russell. If those can not hold, look for the markets to continue to erode reaching 682.00-679.50 on the SP, 1061.00-1060.00 on the NQ and 351.00-349.60 on the Russell. If buyers do not step in there lok for STRONG support at 675.00-673.50 on the SP, 1053.00-1051.50 on the Nasdaq and 345.00-344.30 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 707.25-709.00 1100.25-1102.00 378.90-380.10
Resistance 3 702.50-704.00 1091.00-1093.50 369.80-371.20
Resistance 2 697.00-698.00 1083.00-1084.50 364.60-366.00
Resistance 1 691.75-693.50 1076.00-1078.00 359.70-361.50
PIVOT 698.00 1080.75 362.50
Support 1 686.00-684.50 1067.00-1066.00 355.30-353.80
Support 2 682.00-679.50 1061.00-1060.00 351.00-349.60
Support 3 675.00-673.50 1053.00-1051.50 345.00-344.30
Support 4 671.00-669.75 1046.50-1044.00 340.50-339.90





S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
827.88 1247.81 472.4
784.63 1191.92 435.5
758.13 1157.67 412.9
741.75 1136.50 398.9
731.63 1123.42 390.3
715.25 1102.25 376.3
705.13 1089.17 367.7
702.00 1085.13 365.0
698.87 1081.08 362.3
688.75 1068.00 353.7
672.37 1046.83 339.7
662.25 1033.75 331.1
645.87 1012.58 317.1
619.37 978.33 294.5
576.13 922.44 257.7

















DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 702.50 1087.00 366.90
AS DAILY LOW 675.00 1052.50 344.30​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

 

[arturo1]

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 05-March-2009

World Stocks rebound on China economic plan. ADP Employment at minus 697K, worst than expected. ISM Services index a bit stronger than expected but still showing economic activity contraction. Beige Book indicates additional deterioration in all the regions and sectors, does not forecast a recovery during this year.


ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM Initial Claims
8:30 AM Productivity -revision
10:00 AM Factory Orders



YESTERDAY’S MARKET
After posting a low at 681.50 during the early night, the equity future indexes opened with a big gap. The SP started the session at 707.50 and after reaching 708.25, just at our resistance areas, pulled back to 705.25 and pushed to a new high at 710.50. After posting a double top at the highs, the SP pulled back to 703.00. After bottoming there and once the economic reports get released, the SP bounced back to 708.00 but failed to break to new highs and pushed down to test the 700.00 mark. After holding the 700.00 level, the SP bounced to 705.00, pulled back to 701.00 and bounced back to test the early highs, that once broken pushed the index up to 713.00, after a small pullback the index posted a new marginal high at 714.00. With the Russell failing to make a new high, the SP pulled back to 709.50 but continued to get bought on the breaks. The index made a new high at 714.50 but failed to push higher. Markets pulled back; the SP tested 707.75, bounced to 711.75 and pushed lower to 704.50.With the markets holding in positive territory, the SP pushed up once more to 711.75, pulled back and rallied to a new high at 716.00 and then to 719.75. With good buying into the last hour of the session, the SP reached 723.75 but the markets sold off into the close. For the day, the SP added XXXXX points and settled at 708.50, the Nasdaq gained XXXXX closing the session at 1101.00 and the Russell closed higher by CCCCC points closing at 366.90. The Dow rallied strong but also gave back part of it gains closing higher by 149 points at 6875.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK


Yesterday I wrote: “The SP lost ground once more after a higher opening and a few rally attempts. The fact that the SP and Dow held above the bottom of the down trending channel that has been formed during the last three weeks, could give way to a short term rally that test the upper boundary very soon. However, the fact that the SP closed below the 700.00 level which is closely watch by many institutions indicates that this market is in a capitulation move on this last leg of the bear trend. By the time that I am writing my report the index is already trading at lower levels, and for this downtrend to get reversed; only a higher opening or a rally that last for more than four sessions has to be seen. So the game has been very easy, selling the bounces has worked out well, but the increased open interest is indicating that a bear market rally could be near. The problem is to calculate the extension that this capitulation can reach. On one of my previous reports I have mentioned the 670.00 area as a strong support level, but with the markets moving lower without real panic, the low could be much lower. Nothing seems to create the catalyst that the markets need to rebound, but once it happens, the rally could get a strong momentum. Meanwhile the 700.00 level on the SP, could prevent investors from getting back in the markets all the time that the index remains below it, and certainly limit speculators like me to keep trying to catch the “low”. What I can tell you for sure, is that selling at these levels is risky, to be a late seller in this market could result in huge losses, so if you are not already with a short position, trade the markets, but beware of staying short without a protective stop.”
Yesterday’s higher opening gap, successful test of the 700.00 area and positive close could give way to higher prices during the coming sessions, and maybe a test of the 740.00 area, the key, FOLLOW THROUGH. The higher opening without closing the gap, that we saw yesterday’s is one of the ways to end a trend in the markets, or to initiate a countertrend move. Despite all the bad news, the markets were able to hold during all the trading session, and bad news with the markets rallying means some bullishness, obviously if you add the extreme oversold conditions and a few trapped shorts at lower levels, this rally that started yesterday could reach much more higher levels, the key, FOLLOW THROUGH.
I also mentioned during the week that the upcoming monthly job report, could give way to some short covering, so if this is a countertrend rally, it should last no more than today, and if the job report is worst than expected, the indexes could resume their downtrend next Friday, but once more, a bad report with a rallying market will be seen as bullish. Yesterday’s rally was powerful and strong, but the late sell off also eroded part of the rally, so if we have FOLLOW THROUGH for today at least yesterday’s highs may be tested, and if the Friday’s report does not give way to a sell off, then the rally will be at risk only by next Tuesday, and if it holds, then it could continue for another full week until the SP gets in troubles once more.
Yesterday’s wide range session should give way to a consolidation move for today, I will try to keep a bullish bias all the time that the SP can hold the 698.00 area, and I will feel OK with my longs above the pivot point, but the markets may offer opportunities on both sides of the range and even push lower for another test of the recent lows.


TODAY’S SESSION
Initial resistance at 708.50-710.50 on the SP, 1106.00-1108.00 on the Nasdaq and 368.70-370.50 on the Russell, if the markets trade above then look for some troubles at 715.50-716.50 on the SP, 1114.00-1116.00 on the Nasdaq and 373.80-374.20 on the Russell. If the rally fails there, look for a good pullback, maybe 12.00 SP points, however if those levels get exceeded look for the markets to press higher reaching 720.50-722.00 on the SP, 1125.00-1127.50 on the Nasdaq and 376.80-378.10 on the Russell.



There is support at 704.50-702.50 on the SP, 1095.00-1094.00 on the Nasdaq and 365.10-363.80 on the Russell. If the early weakness ends there, look for the rally to resume, but if those fail, then look for KEY support levels at 700.50-698.75 on the SP, 1088.50-1086.00 on the Nasdaq and361.00-359.50 on the Russell to0 get tested. I assume that if those can not hold, sellers will regain the control pushing the indexes down to 695.00.693.00 on the SP, 1081.00.1078.50 on the Nasdaq and 356.10-354.70 on the Russell, if the markets trade below those areas only the 688.50 level will avoid a test of yesterday’s Globex low at 681.50 on the SP.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 728.50-731.00 1133.00-1135.00 381.90-383.00
Resistance 3 720.50-722.00 1125.00-1127.50 376.80-378.10
Resistance 2 715.50-716.50 1114.00-1116.00 373.80-374.20
Resistance 1 708.50-710.50 1106.00-1108.00 368.70-370.50
PIVOT 704.50 1096.00 366.20
Support 1 704.50-702.50 1095.00-1094.00 365.10-363.80
Support 2 700.50-698.75 1088.50-1086.00 361.00-359.50
Support 3 695.00-693.00 1081.00-1078.50 356.10-354.70
Support 4 688.50-686.00 1067.00-1066.00 347.60-346.60





S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
903.31 1392.75 458.9
834.36 1289.93 426.9
792.11 1226.93 407.3
766.00 1188.00 395.2
749.86 1163.93 387.7
723.75 1125.00 375.6
707.61 1100.93 368.1
702.63 1093.50 365.8
697.64 1086.07 363.5
681.50 1062.00 356.0
655.39 1023.07 343.9
639.25 999.00 336.4
613.14 960.07 324.3
570.89 897.07 304.7
501.94 794.25 272



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 737.25 1144.00 381.10
AS DAILY LOW 695.00 1081.50 361.50​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

 

[arturo1]

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 06-March-2009


Initial Claims down to 639K, Productivity down .4% and Factory orders declined for a sixth consecutive month. Citigroup trades below $1.00. markets continued to plunge.


ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM Average Workweek
8:30 AM Hourly Earnings
8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls
8:30 AM Unemployment rate
2:00 PM Consumer Credit



YESTERDAY’S MARKET
Wednesday’s strong rally and late sell off gave way to a negative nightly session. The E-mini SP started the day at 696.00, well below the previous session settlement; the early weakness gave way to a short covering rally that reached 701.00. After pulling back to 698.50, the rally continued, the SP reached 702.50. After trading in a narrow range, the index pushed higher reaching 703.25, pulled back to 700.50, and bounced to test the intraday high. Unable to break higher and leaded by the weakness on the Russell, the SP pushed down to the 694.00 level. The SP bounced to 699.25 but failed to break higher and retreated to 693.50 from where a feeble bounce reached 696.00 just to get sold to 691.75, above the Globex lows. Once the market traded below the nightly lows, it pushed down to 685.50, bounced to 689.75 and drop to a new low at 682.75. After holding above the previous session nightly low at 681.50 the SP bounced back to the late high at 689.75, pulled back to 684.00 and rallied to 692.00.Unable to trade above that area, once more the index retreated posting a new low at 680.50. After a few filed attempts to rebound, the SP finally pushed higher reaching 688.50 but failed to break higher and get sold to new lows at 676.00 before bouncing into the close. For the day, the SP lost 22.50 points and settled at 686.00, the Nasdaq ended lower by 18.00 at 1083.00 and the Russell closed the session at 351.90, minus 15.00 points. The Dow lost 281 points closing the day at 6594.



MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “I also mentioned during the week that the upcoming monthly job report, could give way to some short covering, so if this is a countertrend rally, it should last no more than today, and if the job report is worst than expected, the indexes could resume their downtrend next Friday, but once more, a bad report with a rallying market will be seen as bullish. Yesterday’s rally was powerful and strong, but the late sell off also eroded part of the rally, so if we have FOLLOW THROUGH for today at least yesterday’s highs may be tested, and if the Friday’s report does not give way to a sell off, then the rally will be at risk only by next Tuesday, and if it holds, then it could continue for another full week until the SP gets in troubles once more. Yesterday’s wide range session should give way to a consolidation move for today, I will try to keep a bullish bias all the time that the SP can hold the 698.00 area, and I will feel OK with my longs above the pivot point, but the markets may offer opportunities on both sides of the range and even push lower for another test of the recent lows.”


We came into yesterday’s session looking for the markets to hold the 698.00 area, which held perfectly during Wednesday’s trading session. Early on the morning and after a strong negative opening that level failed to hold, and the markets continued to melt down. Wednesday’s rally happened once the lower trend line from the descending channel formed in the SP and Dow was tested and held, the same scenario could be seen during Friday’s session once the 6500 area on the Dow and 670.00 on the SP get tested. If that early selling happens and the markets are able to rebound, we could see the SP trying to get back to the 700.00 area, and that can not be qualified as a turn around in the markets.
The SP, and the other indexes area in a capitulating move, when and where it will end, nobody knows; but the fact that investors do not want to hold stocks or longs for more than a short term, makes difficult any recovery. I mentioned, during the week, the 670.00 level as a possible downside objective for this leg, but, believe me; prices could go much lower before a solid low is in place. Some analyst have been talking about the 550.00 area on the SP as it book value, it could be that this capitulation will reach that area, certainly a low is near, in price or time, but the yearly low should be placed during the coming weeks. Keep in mind that this is a capitulation, and panic and fear which has not been seen in the markets area essential for a low to be in place, that low can be around the 632.00 level before another multi day short covering rally happens. So until the real panic or exhaustion of the current trend take place any rally, even one that reaches the 724.00 area on the SP will be only another selling opportunity. Take into account that the all the players are on the short side, so when a good short squeeze get started, you better have a stop loss order in place.
Today, we’ll get the monthly unemployment figures, the expectations is foor the unemployment rate to reach 7.9%, a number that comes out worst than expected could give way to a huge sell off, and if the markets rally with the data, they probably will get sold later in the session as there is not reason to stay long for the weekend.


TODAY’S SESSION
There is initial resistance at 690.50-692.50 on the SP, 1089.00-1091.00 on the Nasdaq and 353.80-354.20 on the Russell, if the markets open above them look at them as good support at least during the first hour of the session, trading above them could indicate a test of 696.50-698.50 on the SP, 1096.00-1098.00 on the Nasdaq and356.50-357.70 on the Russell. If shorts are running to cover those should get exceeded pushing the indexes all the way up above the 700.00 area on the SP reaching 705.50-706.50 on the SP 1110.50-1112.00 on the Nasdaq and 363.50-364.60 on the Russell.


There is some support at 683.00-681.50 on the SP, 1078.00-1076.00 on the Nasdaq and 350.00-348.10 on the Russell. Trading below them will indicate a test of yesterday’s late lows at 678.00-676.50 on the SP, 1072.00-1070.00 on the Nasdaq and345.20-343.60 on the Russell. If those can not hold, in particular during the last hour of the session look for the indexes to post another weak close that may test the 671.00-670.00 on the SP, 1063.00-1060.50 on the Nasdaq and 340.40-339.50 on the Russell before the session is over. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 711.00-713.00 1125.00-1126.00 369.40-371.10
Resistance 3 705.50-706.50 1110.50-1112.00 363.50-364.60
Resistance 2 696.50-698.50 1096.00-1098.00 356.50-357.70
Resistance 1 690.50-692.50 1089.00-1091.00 353.80-354.20
PIVOT 691.00 1092.00 356.30
Support 1 683.00-681.50 1078.00-1076.00 350.00-348.10
Support 2 678.00-676.50 1072.00-1070.00 345.20-343.60
Support 3 671.00-670.00 1063.00-1060.50 340.40-339.50
Support 4 666.25-664.00 1055.00-1053.00 335.10-334.60



S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
862.63 1335.81 458.3
804.69 1253.80 424.0
769.19 1203.55 403.0
747.25 1172.50 390.0
733.69 1153.30 382.0
711.75 1122.25 369.0
698.19 1103.05 361.0
694.00 1097.13 358.5
689.81 1091.20 356.0
676.25 1072.00 348.0
654.31 1040.95 335.0
640.75 1021.75 327.0
618.81 990.70 314.0
583.31 940.45 293.0
525.38 858.44 258.8



















DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 700.00 1102.25 360.50
AS DAILY LOW 663.50 1052.25 339.50​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

 

[arturo1]

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 09-March-2009


Nonfarm payrolls down by 651K, Unemployment rate at 8.1%, the highest in the last 25 years, Wells Fargo slashing its dividend by 85% and increased rumors about GE solvency resulted in a choppy session that after new lows turned positive.

WEEKLY PIVOTS FOR WEEK ENDING 13- March-2009
R3 763.00
R2 725.25
R1 706.50
PP 695.75
S1 669.00
S2 650.00
S3 627.75

ECONOMIC DATA
None

WEEKLY RECAP
As the bear market continues and investors stay away from the markets, stocks continued to trade lower for the week. Monday’s trading session started with the left feet; AIG announced mammoth size fourth quarter loss and GE shares hit a 16 year low. Consumer Spending surprisingly raised by .4%and the ISM manufacturing index came out better than expected but still falling and Construction Spending was down 3.3%.Markets continue to plunge after failing to trade in positive territory, the SP lost 28.75 points and settled at 705.50, the Nasdaq lost 33.00 ending the session at 1074.25 and the Russell lost 18.20 closing at 370.30. The Dow lost 299 points closing the day at 6763. Tuesday, was not better, American Express announced that it will be reducing its cards limits, an action that will affect the credit score of the cardholders, Pending home sales was down the double than expected, 7.7% and the government said that the U.S. financial system, may need additional bailout money, also automakers continued to slump and the SP traded below the 700.00 mark for the first time since 1996, for the day, the SP lost 16.00 points and settled at 689.50, the Nasdaq ended lower by 14.00 at 1072.00 and the Russell closed at 357.40, 12.90 points lower. The Dow lost 37 points closing the day at 6726. Wednesday’s session the markets bounced back, China announced a new capital injection, a bailout plan which gave way to a strong opening, and despite the fact that the economic reports showed worst than ever market conditions the indexes closed in the green. The ADP employment report which measures job conditions in the private sector, showed a loss of 697K jobs during February, the ISM services index that came out better than expected still showed economic contraction and the Fed’s Beige book indicated economic shrinking in all the regions, after trading as high as 723.75, the SP and the other main indexes gave back some of their intraday gains but still closed in positive territory. The hopes for a short term low, after Wednesday’s rally evaporated very soon, once more Thursday’s session ended with losses. The weekly Initial Claims report was down by 639K, Productivity was also down, a .4% and Factory orders declined for a sixth consecutive month. Citigroup traded below $1.00 for the first time and obviously, markets continued to plunge, the SP lost 22.50 points and settled at 686.00, the Nasdaq ended lower by 18.00 at 1083.00 and the Russell closed the session at 351.90, minus 15.00 points. The Dow lost 281 points closing the day at 6594. Friday’s session was choppy, with the release of the monthly jobs report that showed a lost of 651K jobs during February and the unemployment rate jumping to 8.1%, the highest in 25 years, markets rallied during the first 15 minutes of the session just to get sold to new multi year lows, however late in the afternoon trading they turned positive, the SP added 2.00 points and settled at 688.50, the Nasdaq lost 7.25 points closing the session at 1075.75 and the Russell added 1.60 points closing at 353.50. The Dow came back after trading below the 6500 area and added 32 points finishing the week at 6626.





FRIDAY’S MARKET
With the markets bouncing after the release of the unemployment numbers, the E-mini SP started the session at 688.50 from where the index pulled back to 685.50. After holding the initial pullback, the SP rallied strong and fast to 699.25 where the move stalled. Sellers took advantage of the quick run and pushed the SP down to 686.50 where the sell off lost its steam. After trying to bounce, the index dropt to 682.00 bounced back to 686.50 and sold off to 673.75. The SP bounced back to 678.50, pulled back to 675.00 and pushed higher to 682.50.Unable to get some upside momentum, markets sold off once again. The SP fell to 671.75, bounced to 676.00 but gets sold once more to new lows. With the same pattern in place the index continued to erode, finally it printed its daily lows at 665.75. THE SP bounced a few points, backed off to test the lows, and after a double bottom and during the last hour of the session rallied strong reaching 681.75, pulled back to 674.25 and rallied once more into the close reaching 688.50 as the short covering got extended into the final minutes of the session. For the day, the SP added 2.00 points and settled at 688.50, the Nasdaq lost 7.25 points closing the session at 1075.75 and the Russell added 1.60 points closing at 353.50. The Dow came back after trading below the 6500 area and added 32 points finishing the week at 6626.

.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Friday I wrote: “Wednesday’s rally happened once the lower trend line from the descending channel formed in the SP and Dow was tested and held, the same scenario could be seen during Friday’s session once the 6500 area on the Dow and 670.00 on the SP get tested. If that early selling happens and the markets are able to rebound, we could see the SP trying to get back to the 700.00 area, and that can not be qualified as a turn around in the markets. The SP, and the other indexes area in a capitulating move, when and where it will end, nobody knows; but the fact that investors do not want to hold stocks or longs for more than a short term, makes difficult any recovery. I mentioned, during the week, the 670.00 level as a possible downside objective for this leg. Take into account that the all the players are on the short side, so when a good short squeeze get started, you better have a stop loss order in place. Today, we’ll get the monthly unemployment figures, the expectations is for the unemployment rate to reach 7.9%, a number that comes out worst than expected could give way to a huge sell off, and if the markets rally with the data, they probably will get sold later in the session as there is not reason to stay long for the weekend.”


After an initial rally, the markets get reversed pushing the SP and Dow to my downside objectives, the 670.00 area for the SP and 6500 for the Dow. Once those levels held, near the lower boundary of the descending trading channel, and with “everybody get short”, the upside move was strong.
Once more, and after a new low, the questions about near term direction are the same, a possible follow through during Monday’s session that pushes the indexes up to the upper boundary of the trading channel, or the failure of late Friday’s rally that give way to new lows.
It obvious that this descending pattern where lower highs and lower lows will continue until, unless higher levels, this time, 710.00 on the SP and 6850 on the Dow get exceeded, and IF that happens, additional short covering could be seen that pushes the markets up to their next resistance areas at 741.00 on the SP and 7300 on the Dow, that I suspect won’t get exceeded, the markets should see new lows. It is also possible that a second degree countertrend move could push the indexes much higher, but at this moment we have to be less optimistic for the near and short term.
Once Friday’s lows get violated, the next downside objective for the SP should be around the 625.00 level that may coincide with the Dow at the 6000 mark, do I think that thiose areas will post the yearly low, I don’ think so, I do believe that this leg down should break the 600.00 level and then start a good upside move that will result in a long term consolidation.


Next Monday, if the markets open higher, it could happen that this time the gap won’t get filled during the same session, there area a lot of bears, and time will come when this “easy” game where the bounces get sold aggressively will change and a huge short covering move will squeeze the late short traders.
With this uncertainty, I will follow Monday’s opening price as a line in the sand for my early trading desitions, I will try to hold long above that level and get short ones it gets broken to the downside, I will also watch closely for a double top at last Friday’s 698.50 intraday high on the SP, a double top there could indicate a repetition of the last market behaviour where double tops hold any rally attempt.


TODAY’S SESSION
There is initial resistance at 691.00-693.00 on the SP, 1081.00-1083.00 on the Nasdaq and 356.00-357.40 on the Russell, an early bounce that fail to trade above those levels could give way to a sell off that could reach the 678.00 area on the SP, but if the markets break above them, look for the bounce to reach Friday’s early highs at 697.00-698.50 on the SP, 1088.00-1089.50 on the Nasdaq and 359.80-360.90 on the Russell. Those are key because double tops has been resolved in new lows, so if finally the SP breaks the double top pattern that has been present in the recent times, look for additional upside momentum that may push the indexes to their next resistance areas at 702.00-704.00 on the SP, 1096.00-1098.00 on the Nasdaq and 364.20-365.10 on the Russell.

There is initial support at 684.00.682.00 on the SP, 1072.00-1070.00 on the Nasdaq and 351.60-350.40 on the Russell. If there is early downside pressure, markets may be able to test their next support areas at 678.00-676.50 on the SP, 1063.50-1061.00 on the Nasdaq and 345.80-345.00 on the Russell. If the trend is up, those MUST hold, but if Friday’s late rally was a one day countertrend move from new lows, then look for the indexes to push lower testing a probable “higher low” at 671.00-669.50 on the SP, 1052.00-1049.50 on the Nasdaq and 342.00-340.80 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK:
.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 708.00-710.50 1104.00-1105.50 367.90-369.50
Resistance 3 702.00-704.00 1096.00-1098.00 364.20-365.10
Resistance 2 697.00-698.50 1088.00-1089.50 359.80-360.90
Resistance 1 691.50-693.00 1081.00-1083.00 356.00-357.40
PIVOT 684.25 1069.50 351.50
Support 1 684.00.682.00 1072.00-1070.00 351.60-350.40
Support 2 678.00-676.50 1063.50-1061.00 345.80-345.00
Support 3 671.00-669.50 1052.00-1049.50 342.00-340.80
Support 4 658.50-657.00 1040.00-1038.00 335.60.334.50









S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
841.63 1287.13 425.5
786.95 1211.24 399.5
753.45 1164.74 383.6
732.75 1136.00 373.8
719.95 1118.24 367.7
699.25 1089.50 357.9
686.45 1071.74 351.8
682.50 1066.25 350.0
678.55 1060.76 348.1
665.75 1043.00 342.0
645.05 1014.26 332.2
632.25 996.50 326.1
611.55 967.76 316.3
578.05 921.26 300.4
523.38 845.38 274.4






DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 710.00 1083.00 364.20
AS DAILY LOW 676.50 1035.00 348.30​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

 

[arturo1]

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 10-March-2009

FOR THE REAL TIME REPORT VISIT OUR WEBSITE

ROLLOVER DAY IS ON THURSDAY 12 MARCH 2009​

Merck buying Schering in a $41.1 billion deal and McDonalds warning about a weakening 1Q revenue results gave way to a strong opening that failed to hold the gains.


ECONOMIC DATA
10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories


YESTERDAY’S MARKET
After a wide range Globex session where the SP made its low at 670.75 and its nightly high at 693.00, the E-mini SP started the session at 674.00 and started an early rally. Once it traded above our 684.25 pivot point level, pushed higher reaching 688.50 from where it pulled back to 683.00 just to get bought and press higher to the 694.75 area. A small double top at that area gave way to some profit taking after the initial strong move. After pulling back to 690.00, the SP bounced to 691.50 from where it pushed lower to 685.25. After holding above the 684.25 pivot point, the SP bounced back to 691.50, just at our first resistance area. Unable to break higher, the SP pushed lower reaching 681.50. After bouncing back to 684.50 the index backed off to 680.50, bounced to 687.00 and backed off once more trading for more than an hour on a defined sideways pattern that finally tried to break higher posting a double top at 688.50 and backing off once more to the 682.00 support areas. Pressed by the weakness of the Russell and Nasdaq, the SP finally broke the 682.00 area and pushed down to 676.00. The SP bounced back to 680.00, pulled back to 677.00 and pushed up once more to 680.00. The SP pushed up to 684.00 and after failing to trade higher pulled back all the way to 676.50. after holding above the support levels, the SP bounced to 682.00, pulled back to 676.50 and once it traded below that level, pushed down to 672.00 from where it moved up to 677.75 where a double top stopped the bounce giving way to another pullback that held above the lows. For the day, the SP lost 11.75 points and settled at 676.00 the Nasdaq ended lower by 29.50 points at 1047.00 and the Russell lost 9.90 closing the session at 344.60. The Dow lost another 79 points and closed the day at 6547.

.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “Once more, and after a new low, the questions about near term direction are the same, a possible follow through during Monday’s session that pushes the indexes up to the upper boundary of the trading channel, or the failure of late Friday’s rally that give way to new lows. It is obvious that this descending pattern where lower highs and lower lows will continue until, unless higher levels, this time, 710.00 on the SP and 6850 on the Dow get exceeded, and IF that happens, additional short covering could be seen that pushes the markets up to their next resistance areas at 741.00 on the SP and 7300 on the Dow, that I suspect won’t get exceeded, the markets should see new lows. It is also possible that a second degree countertrend move could push the indexes much higher, but at this moment we have to be less optimistic for the near and short term. Once Friday’s lows get violated, the next downside objective for the SP should be around the 625.00 level that may coincide with the Dow at the 6000 mark, do I think that those areas will post the yearly low, I don’ think so, I do believe that this leg down should break the 600.00 level and then start a good upside move that will result in a long term consolidation. With this uncertainty, I will follow Monday’s opening price as a line in the sand for my early trading decisions, I will try to hold long above that level and get short ones it gets broken to the downside, I will also watch closely for a double top at last Friday’s 698.50 intraday high on the SP, a double top there could indicate a repetition of the last market behavior where double tops hold any rally attempt.”


So, once more another failed rally attempt. Yesterday’s early rally and the failure to hold the gains or at least to close near the unchanged area resulted in another lower high on the daily charts. The fact that the Friday’s low was able to hold seems to be the only encouraging circumstance at this moment, and could favor the long side of the markets for the rest of the week. This means, that all the time that the 666.75 area holds on a close the markets may be able to rally.
Last week, we were calling for a downside objective around the 770.00 area on the SP and 6500 on the Dow; both indexes reached them but were able to stay between the descending trading channel in which support and resistance have been acting well at the lower and upper boundary of the pattern. This continues to be in play until a clear breakout occurs, or the indexes break below Friday’s lows.
We have to understand that at some moment, the game will change, and a higher opening, or a reversal from lower prices won’t give the late sellers the chance to get out, by this I mean, that the SP could surprise and post a 70.00-75.00 point rally from whatever the lows area, or from the last Friday’s lows at 665.75, in fact if that lows holds, the 720.00 level could be a good upside objective on a first run, and then, obviously the 741.00 level. We also have to understand that yesterday’s intraday rally failed to close above the trend line, which keeps the downtrend in a strong position.
Yesterday’s 780.00 area, which coincide with today’s pivot point, was rejected or traded many times, and I presume that it could act as a strong pivot point for today’s trading session, I want to be long above it. I may also try to get long on a double bottom near the 665.75, but if the SP spends too much time below it, the 636.00 or 625.00 levels will get visited very soon.


TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at 678.50-680.50 on the SP, 1053.00-1055.00 on the Nasdaq and 346.50-348.00 on the Russell. Those are the KEY for an upside run; I probably won’t try any short trade if the SP trades above it, if that happens, look for the indexes to push higher testing 684.00-685.50 on the SP, 1061.00-1063.00 on the Nasdaq and 349.80-350.70. Once the markets get there, look for continuing upside action IF THE RUSSELL breaks above its resistance levels, if it shows signs of life, look for the rally to continue reaching 689.25-690.25 on the SP, 1068.50-1070.00 on the Nasdaq and 353.00-353.70 on the Russell.


There is good support at 673.50-671.50 on the SP, 1042.00-1040.00 on the Nasdaq and 343.10-341.60 on the Russell. If the markets are OK, those may hold, if not look for a reversal from the 668.00-666.50 levels on the SP, 1035.00-1034.50 on the Nasdaq and 339.40-338.50 on the Russell. Failing to hold there will maintain the strong daily downtrend that should give way to a capitulation once the next support areas at 662.50-661.00 on the SP, 1028.50-1026.00 on the Nasdaq and 335.90-334.80 on the Russell fail to hold. GOOD LUCK:
.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 694.00-696.00 1076.00-1078.50 358.60-360.10
Resistance 3 689.25-690.25 1068.50-1070.00 353.00-353.70
Resistance 2 684.00-685.50 1061.00-1063.00 349.80-350.70
Resistance 1 678.50-680.50 1053.00-1055.00 346.50-348.00
PIVOT 680.50 1058.25 347.70
Support 1 673.50-671.50 1042.00-1040.00 343.10-341.60
Support 2 668.00-666.50 1035.00-1034.50 339.40-338.50
Support 3 662.50-661.00 1028.50-1026.00 335.90-334.80
Support 4 657.00-655.50 1021.00-1020.00 332.10-331.30









S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
796.75 1289.63 421.4
757.58 1212.11 396.6
733.58 1164.61 381.4
718.75 1135.25 372.0
709.58 1117.11 366.2
694.75 1087.75 356.8
685.58 1069.61 351.0
682.75 1064.00 349.2
679.92 1058.40 347.4
670.75 1040.25 341.6
655.92 1010.90 332.2
646.75 992.75 326.4
631.92 963.40 317.0
607.92 915.90 301.8
568.75 838.38 277.0














DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 685.00 1067.00 350.70
AS DAILY LOW 661.00 1019.75 335.50​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

 

[arturo1]

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 11-March-2009

ROLLOVER DAY IS ON THURSDAY 12 MARCH 2009​

Citi positive commentaries about the 1Q earnings and Bernanke urging more financial regulations to reduce risk gave way to a huge rally.


ECONOMIC DATA
10:35 AM Crude Inventories
2.00 PM Treasury Budget


YESTERDAY’S MARKET
A positive Globex session gave way to a strong opening with the E-mini SP starting the day at 690.00.After pulling back a couple of points, the SP rallied to 695.75, and after breaking above the resistance areas pushed up reaching 699.75. After a small set back to 697.50, the SP broke above the 700.00 area posting its high at 702.50. Another small pullback, just below the 700.00 mark gave way to a bounce to the previous high, and the double top, once broke resulted in additional short covering propelling the SP to 707.75. After holding near the highs for a few minutes, the rally continued and reached 715.75. The markets entered started to trade in a sideways pattern that finally posted a new marginal high at 716.25. After holding below the double top, the SP pulled back to 708.00 from where it bounced back to 714.00.Another pullback to the 710.00 intraday supports resulted in a bounce to 712.00 from where the index fell to 707.50 just to bounce back to 715.00. Once more, and keeping the sideways pattern, the SP pulled back and bounced and as shorts continued to cover, posted a new high at 717.25. Another feeble pullback to the 712.75 area held pushing the markets to new highs into the close reaching 721.75 before pulling back during the last two minut6es of the extended futures session. For the day, the SP added 40.00 points closing the session at 716.00, the Nasdaq gained 59.00 points and settled at 1106.00 and the Russell ended higher by 20.60 points at 365.20. The Dow rallied 379 points closing the day at 6926.

.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “The fact that the Friday’s low was able to hold seems to be the only encouraging circumstance at this moment, and could favor the long side of the markets for the rest of the week. This means, that all the time that the 666.75 area holds on a close the markets may be able to rally. Last week, we were calling for a downside objective around the 670.00 area on the SP and 6500 on the Dow; both indexes reached them but were able to stay between the descending trading channel in which support and resistance have been acting well at the lower and upper boundary of the pattern. This continues to be in play until a clear breakout occurs, or the indexes break below Friday’s lows. We have to understand that at some moment, the game will change, and a higher opening, or a reversal from lower prices won’t give the late sellers the chance to get out, by this I mean, that the SP could surprise and post a 70.00-75.00 point rally from whatever the lows area, or from the last Friday’s lows at 665.75, in fact if that lows holds, the 720.00 level could be a good upside objective on a first run, and then, obviously the 741.00 level.”




Huge rally for all the equity indexes, and as expected, but faster than anybody was thinking, the 720.00 area was reached. Yesterday’s strong opening which catch all the shorts by surprise left many late shorts trapped, and the short squeezing rally that may have consumed too much gas, will have to prove that it can push higher for more than one to four sessions or this countertrend move will be reversed very soon, that means follow through.
The fact that the week is light of economic reports and the bullish bias that I explained derivate from the rollover of the March to June futures contracts may help the indexes to hold for a few more sessions, but if yesterday’s highs remain intact, some consolidation could be seen. However the Dow finally broke above the upper trend line of the five weeks descending pattern, and that is a short term bullish signal, that once this index trades above the 7000 area, not so far from yesterday’s close could give way to a test of the 7200 and 7400 levels. The SP, has an upside objective around the 741.00 area, and that could match the 70.00 to 75.00 points countertrend move that I described in yesterday’s report.
Support, independent of my calculations, should be seen around the 709.00-707.00 levels and the KEY area to maintain this rally alive is around the 700.00 area. The fact that yesterday’s session was an unusual wide range day with a big upside gap, could indicate a short term exhaustion of the downtrend, but in this last bear run, the countertrend moves have been only a one day rally, so if there is something different in this move, besides its huge extension, the markets will have to continue to press higher until the 741.00 area is reached, and if this move will get some serious legs, I would not be surprise if by next week the SP is testing the 780.00 level.
For tomorrow’s trading session, the first hurdle for this rally to continue will be the area between yesterday’s highs and the March 04 high just below the 725.00 level, I assume that the first time this level get tested will offer a good shorting opportunity, but once it gets exceeded the uptrend could gain additional momentum. Conclusion, there is a chance that we have a short term low and trading above the 741.00 could give way to more upside pressure.
TODAY’S SESSION
There is initial resistance at 722.00-724.50 on the SP, 1112.00-1113.50 on the Nasdaq and 367.60.368.00 on the Russell. Trading above them may push the indexes to their next levels at 728.50-729.50 on the SP, 1118.50-1121.00 on the Nasdaq and 373.50-375.10 on the Russell. If the rally loses its steam at those areas, expect a good pullback, but once those get broken, look for additional short covering that may move up the indexes to their next resistance areas at 734.00-736.00 on the SP, 1131.00-1133.00 on the Nasdaq and 379.80-380.70 on the Russell.

There is some support at 711.50-710.00 on the SP, 1099.00-1097.00 on the Nasdaq and 361.80-360.30 on the Russell. If the markets open below them, consider them as intraday pivot points if the indexes reverse above them. If they get violated look for the markets to show some profit taking testing the next support levels at 707.00-706.00 on the SP, 1090.00-1088.00 on the Nasdaq and 356.90-355.50 on the Russell. Those are very important, so if the trend is still up they may offer a good short entry, but if those can not hold, look for the markets to reach at 702.50-701.00 on the SP, 1075.00-1073.00 on the Nasdaq and 350.60-349.00 on the Russell before the session is over. GOOD LUCK.
.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 741.50-743.00 1142.00-1144.50 385.80-387.20
Resistance 3 734.00-736.00 1131.00-1133.00 379.80-380.70
Resistance 2 728.50-729.50 1118.50-1121.00 373.50-375.10
Resistance 1 722.00-724.50 1112.00-1113.50 367.60.368.00
PIVOT 703.50 1086.50 359.30
Support 1 711.50-710.00 1099.00-1097.00 361.80-360.30
Support 2 707.00-706.00 1090.00-1088.00 356.90-355.50
Support 3 702.50-701.00 1075.00-1073.00 350.60-349.00
Support 4 694.00-692.00 1064.00-1063.00 346.40-345.60


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
927.88 1413.19 482.2
848.72 1297.72 439.0
800.22 1226.97 412.5
770.25 1183.25 396.1
751.72 1156.22 386.0
721.75 1112.50 369.6
703.22 1085.47 359.5
697.50 1077.13 356.4
691.78 1068.78 353.2
673.25 1041.75 343.1
643.28 998.03 326.7
624.75 971.00 316.6
594.78 927.28 300.2
546.28 856.53 273.7
467.13 741.06 230.5









DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 743.00 1144.50 380.70
AS DAILY LOW 694.50 1073.25 354.20​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

 

[arturo1]

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 12-March-2009

ROLLOVER DAY IS TODAY 12 MARCH 2009
WE WILL BE TRADING THE JUNE CONTRACTS
ALL OUR NUMBERS ARE BASED ON THE JUNE CONTRACTS​

Markets rally in the early morning as Global stocks rebound from their worst levels but after the initial fluctuated closing the day with modest gains.


ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM Initial Claims
8.30 AM Retail Sales
8:30 AM Retail Sales excluding auto
10:00 AM Business Inventories


YESTERDAY’S MARKET
After reaching the 730.00 area during the Globex session, the SP started the day at 725.00. The initial pullback pushed the index down to 718.00 where buyers stepped in pushing the markets up to their Globex highs. After breaking above the nightly high, the SP reached 732.50, from where it pulled back to 725.50 from where leaded by the Nasdaq bounced back to 730.75 but failed to make a new high. The index pulled back to 724.50 but with a lot of buying pressure in play bounced back to 729.00 but failed to break higher and sold off to 721.00. Once more the SP was able to bounce, but with the markets trading below the daily highs, the sideways pattern started to show a bit of downside bias as the SP tested its early lows. After holding a pullback to 716.75, the SP bounced to our updated resistance area at 721.25 but failed to break above it on its first attempt, after a feeble pullback, the SP bounced to 723.00 where a double top gave way to a strong pullback to the 714.00 area where the market bottomed. The SP rallied all the way up to 728.00 but failed to break above the early resistance areas and once the move run out of gas pulled back into the close. For the day the SP ended at 720.50, up 4.50 points for the day, the Nasdaq which maintained a bullish bias gained 19.00 points and settled at 1125.00 and the Russell which lagged most of the session closed almost unchanged at 364.90.The Dow ended higher by four points at 6930.

.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “ Yesterday’s strong opening which catch all the shorts by surprise left many late shorts trapped, and the short squeezing rally that may have consumed too much gas, will have to prove that it can push higher for more than one to four sessions or this countertrend move will be reversed very soon, that means follow through. The fact that the week is light of economic reports and the bullish bias that I explained derivate from the rollover of the March to June futures contracts may help the indexes to hold for a few more sessions, but if yesterday’s highs remain intact, some consolidation could be seen. However the Dow finally broke above the upper trend line of the five weeks descending pattern, and that is a short term bullish signal, that once this index trades above the 7000 area, not so far from yesterday’s close could give way to a test of the 7200 and 7400 levels. The SP, has an upside objective around the 741.00 area. The fact that yesterday’s session was an unusual wide range day with a big upside gap, could indicate a short term exhaustion of the downtrend, but in this last bear run, the countertrend moves have been only a one day rally, so if there is something different in this move, besides its huge extension, the markets will have to continue to press higher until the 741.00 area is reached, and if this move will get some serious legs, I would not be surprise if by next week the SP is testing the 780.00 level. Conclusion, there is a chance that we have a short term low and trading above the 741.00 could give way to more upside pressure. ” As expected, in a relatively small range, markets consolidated Tuesday’s huge rally, and even maintained a bullish bias by closing with some gains for the session. Tuesday’s unusual rally that left trapped many late shorts seems to have the potential to continue to push higher during the next trading sessions. Also, if it proves to hold for more than ten days or breaks above the 770.00 area on the SP and 7500 on the Dow may give way for a multi month rally and give indications that a mid term low is in place.
For this scenario to start to gain some credibility, the DOW will have to finally break above the 7000 area which was rejected early March, I think this is the key because the Nasdaq is already showing bullish divergences, so a confirmation of the rally coming from the DOW will surely inject additional upside momentum to the SP.
Today, we will start to trade the June contracts, rollover sessions has an history of positive closes for the markets, and with so much shorts still trapped at lower levels I will favor the long side of the markets.


TODAY’S SESSION
We have initial resistance at 721.00-722.50 on the SP, 1111.00-1113.00 on the Nasdaq and 364.90-366.20 on the Russell. If those get exceeded after the first 30 minutes of the session try to stay with the trend as the next levels at 726.00-728.00 on the SP, 1119.00-1121.00 on the Nasdaq and 370.00-371.20 on the Russell may get visited. If the rally runs out of gas at those areas, look for the markets to pullback maintaining a bullish bias if my first support areas hold. If finally the second resistance areas get exceeded, the indexes may be able to push higher reaching 732.00-734.00 on the SP, 1127.00-1129.00 on the Nasdaq and 375.30-376.10 on the Russell.


There is early support at 715.00-713.50 on the SP, 1098.00-1097.00 on the Nasdaq and 361.00-359.70 on the Russell, if those fail to hold look for a test of the 710.00-708.00 areas on the SP, 1090.00-1088.00 on the Nasdaq and 357.00-356.30 on the Russell. Those are key for today’s trading session and if those get tested during the first hour of the session and hold once the dust of the rollover process already took place, look for a good rally to develop, however, if those fail, then the indexes could push lower reaching 704.50-703.00 on the SP, 1074.00-1073.00 on the Nasdaq and 352.00-351.20 on the Russell.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 738.00-739.50 1141.00-1142.00 379.60-380-50
Resistance 3 732.00-734.00 1127.00-1129.00 375.30-376.10
Resistance 2 726.00-728.00 1119.00-1121.00 370.00-371.20
Resistance 1 721.00-722.50 1111.00-1113.00 364.90-366.20
PIVOT 718.50 1087.00 365.60
Support 1 715.00-713.50 1098.00-1097.00 361.00-359.70
Support 2 710.00-708.00 1090.00-1088.00 357.00-356.30
Support 3 704.50-703.00 1074.00-1073.00 352.00-351.20
Support 4 698.00-696.00 1068.00-1066.00 347.70-346.80


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
811.88 1393.88 433.8
780.05 1285.35 411.0
760.55 1218.85 397.0
748.50 1177.75 388.3
741.05 1152.35 383.0
729.00 1111.25 374.3
721.55 1085.85 369.0
719.25 1078.00 367.3
716.95 1070.15 365.6
709.50 1044.75 360.3
697.45 1003.65 351.6
690.00 978.25 346.3
677.95 937.15 337.6
658.45 870.65 323.6
626.63 762.13 300.8





DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 732.00 1141.00 375.30
AS DAILY LOW 713.25 1074.00 361.30​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

 

[arturo1]

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 16-March-2009


Michigan sentiment above expectations and the U.S. trade deficit narrowing for a straight sixth month gave way to a trading session where markets fluctuated closing in the green the best week since last November.

WEEKLY PIVOTS FOR WEEK ENDING 20- March-2009
R3 817.00
R2 801.50
R1 771.00
PP 727.00
S1 738.00
S2 711.25
S3 694.00

ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM NY Empire manufacturing index
9:15 AM Capacity Utilization
9:15 AM Industrial Production

WEEKLY RECAP
The stock indexes posted their bigger weekly gains in the recent months. Monday’s trading session started with the news that Merck was buying Schering in a $41.1 billion deal and that McDonalds warned about weakening 1Q revenue results which gave way to a strong opening that failed to hold the gains but still managed to close above the previous week lows. During the session the SP lost 11.75 points and settled at 676.00 the Nasdaq ended lower by 29.50 points at 1047.00 and the Russell lost 9.90 closing the session at 344.60. The Dow closed the day at 6547. Tuesday, the markets turned up, the news about Citigroup telling investors that it earned a profit during the first two months of the year, resulted in a strong opening and in a huge rally. Also, headlines about the restitution of the up tick rule helped the markets; the financials bounced more than 15% during the session. In a speech, Chief Bernanke called for more financial regulations to reduce the crisis risk. Markets closed with big gains, the SP added 40.00 points closing at 716.00, the Nasdaq gained 59.00 points and settled at 1106.00 and the Russell ended higher by 20.60 points at 365.20. The Dow rallied 379 points at 6926. Wednesday’s trading session; markets consolidated the previous day rally and managed to hold the gains indicating more to come, the SP ended at 720.50, up 4.50 points for the day, the Nasdaq which maintained a bullish bias gained 19.00 points and settled at 1125.00 and the Russell which lagged most of the session closed almost unchanged at 364.90.The Dow ended higher by four points at 6930, a non story session. Thursday, the strength continued and the markets rallied. Before the opening, the economic reports showed that the Initial Claims rose to 654K, the Continuing Claims reached 5.3 million, the highest since 1967, and the Retail sales fell less than expected indicating the biggest part of the economy may be starting to stabilize; Business Inventories were down 1.1%, and the news of the day was GE credit rating downgrade for the first time since 1956, which the company said that it does not have any serious impact, and with investors fearing the worst for this company, the downgrade was seen as normal in the current economic conditions. For the day, the SP closed higher by 31.00 points at 748.25, the Nasdaq closed at 1163.50 with a gain of 39.75 points and the Russell settled at 388.40, up 25.60points during the session. The Dow closed at 7170 with a gain of 239 points. Friday was a quite session, the trade deficit continued to narrow for a sixth straight month, while it can be view as an improvement, it only indicates that the global economic activity continues to shrink. The Michigan sentiment report, which measures consumer confidence came out a bit higher than the previous month, and the markets continued to hold the weekly gains and even closed modestly higher for the session, the SP added 6.00 points closing the week at 754.50, the Nasdaq gained 5.00 points and settled at 1168.00 and the Russell closed 3.20 points higher than the previous session and settled at 791.60. The Dow managed to close above its first importance resistance, at 7223 with a 53 points gain.





FRIDAY’S MARKET
After trading at new highs during the Globex session, the E-mini SP started the day at 750.00 and after a small pullback to the 746.00 area rallied to 755.75, just above our resistance levels. Unable to break higher the index backed off to 746.50 from where another bounce posted a lower high at 754.00.after failing to post a new intraday high, the SP sold off steadily reaching 740.50. A feeble bounce to 744.00 was met with new selling that pushed the index to a new marginal low at 739.00.With the Nasdaq holding near the 1150.00 level, the SP bounced to 746.00. After pulling back to 743.50, the SP rallied to 750.00 where the rally lost its steam. The SP pulled back to 746.00 and with the markets trading in a sideways pattern with a slightly bullish bias bounced to 752.00, pulled back, and continued higher to 753.50. With light volumes and lack of momentum the SP traded in a narrow range holding near the 750.00 mark. Finally during the last hour of the trading session, the indexes managed to hold near the daily highs, the SP added 6.00 points closing the week at 754.50, the Nasdaq gained 5.00 points and settled at 1168.00 and the Russell closed 3.20 points higher than the previous session and settled at 791.60. The Dow, managed to close above its first importance resistance, at 7223 with a 53 points gain.

.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Friday I wrote: “Markets continued to push higher after last week lows at the 665.75 area on the SP and have reached and exceeded the first upside objective at the 741.00-743.00 areas on the SP. The Dow has confirmed the reversal by closing above the 7000 level and it is approaching its first resistance area at the 7200 area. If this level will get exceeded, the Dow should push higher testing the 7400. this level should coincide with the 770.00’s on the SP. The current rally has already pushed the markets far away from the lows and is getting close to a possible pullback, this is because a first degree move usually last between 2-5 trading sessions. Certainly it looks like the markets have the potential to continue to push higher but I will be highly surprised if we don’t see a negative session or a consolidation of yesterday’s move that could give way to another small range session, as the one we saw last Wednesday before the indexes continue to push higher to their next levels. Take into account that the close above the 743.00 area on the SP, if reversed, has also the possibility of a false break, but I do think that this rally can push higher at least for another week.”

As expected, and despite that the session closed with modest gains, the indexes consolidated the previous session rally in a narrow range trading session. The fact that the SP and Dow closed the week above the first KEY resistance levels, 743.00 on the SP and 7200 on the Dow, is an indication that the current rally has more room to move to the upside. This week, where a bunch of economic reports will be seen and a rate decision is schedule for Wednesday, the markets should continue to move up, also, we have the March triple witching expiration which usually result in a bullish bias.
Uncertainty and recession risk have nothing to do with this bear market rally, a result of oversold conditions from an extended sell off that finally found support and gave way to a rebound that left many trapped shorts at lower levels which currently keep fueling the rally. Economic developments regarding to the uptick rule or the suspension of the mark to market accounting, could help the markets to hold and extend the recent move; I favor this short term bullish position.
The indexes have closed well above the previous week lows, and the rally seems to have the capability to become a second degree move, meanwhile a countertrend, and extend itself at least for another five to 7 sessions, then we’ll see.
Despite the fact that the markets could show a modest pullback, one or two days, or another consolidating session where they fluctuate in a narrow range, the rally may be able to continue and reach the 770.00-780.00 areas in the SP and the 7400-7450 in the Dow. That is the minimum objective for this move, and if those levels get exceeded we may be in front of a stronger move that could last for another 90 days or at least reach the 820.00 area on the SP.
This week, the interest rate decision, in which I don’t expect any changes, may also force shorts to cover their positions giving support to the current move.
So, assuming that the markets could show some congestion in front of next week economic events, Monday’s trading session could give way to trading opportunities in both sides of the markets, with a slightly bearish bias, selling near resistance levels, or buying near support until we have the feeling of what investors are expecting should be the way to go. We have to be careful with any news surprises that in some way have been moving the markets instead of a fundamental or technical basis, but for our trading strategy, the 750.00 pivot point on the SP as an indication of market direction, and the 760.00-762.00 resistance areas for a possible exhausting high for Monday where the rally could lost its steam, should give us some help for the day, and for the coming sessions, nothing bad happens all the time that the SP can hold the 732.00-730.00 areas.

TODAY’S SESSION
There is initial resistance at 756.50-758.00on the SP, 1170.00-1172.00 on the Nasdaq and 392.50-393.40 on the Russell, an early bounce that fail to trade above those levels, near Friday’s Globex highs could give way to a good pullback, if those get exceeded there is still a chance of failure at 760.50-762.00 on the SP, 1076-00-1078.50 on the Nasdaq and 395.50-396.90 on the Russell. If those get broken, look for additional upside momentum that may push the indexes to their next resistance areas at 765.00-766.00 on the SP, 1084.00-1086.00 on the Nasdaq and 399.50-401.60 on the Russell before the test of the next KEY level at 771.00 on the SP..

There is support at 752.00-750.00on the SP, 1065.00-1063.00 on the Nasdaq and 389.80-389.00 on the Russell. If there is early profit taking, markets may be able to test their next support areas at 747.00-746.00 on the SP, 1056.00-1054.00 on the Nasdaq and 386.30-385.90on the Russell. If the trend is up or we have an early sideways pattern, those MUST hold, but if they fail to do it, look for an initial downside objective at 743.00-742.00 on the SP, 1043.00-1042.00 on the Nasdaq and 381.60-380.30 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 769.75-771.00 1092.00-1094.00 406.50-408.00
Resistance 3 765.00-766.00 1084.00-1086.00 399.50-401.60
Resistance 2 760.50-762.00 1076-00-1078.50 395.50-396.90
Resistance 1 756.50-758.00 1170.00-1172.00 392.50-393.40
PIVOT 750.50 1163.00 389.90
Support 1 752.00-750.00 1065.00-1063.00 389.80-389.00
Support 2 747.00-746.00 1056.00-1054.00 386.30-385.90
Support 3 743.00-742.00 1043.00-1042.00 381.60-380.30
Support 4 738.00-736.00 1036.00-1034.50 376.30-375.10









S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
840.06 1289.25 434.6
808.65 1245.19 418.9
789.40 1218.19 409.3
777.50 1201.50 403.4
770.15 1191.19 399.7
758.25 1174.50 393.8
750.90 1164.19 390.1
748.63 1161.00 389.0
746.35 1157.81 387.9
739.00 1147.50 384.2
727.10 1130.81 378.3
719.75 1120.50 374.6
707.85 1103.81 368.7
688.60 1076.81 359.1
657.19 1032.75 343.4














DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 766.00 1184.75 397.50
AS DAILY LOW 746.25 1157.00 387.90​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

 

[arturo1]

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 17-March-2009

Industrial Production down 1.4%, NY Empire manufacturing index down. Barclay’s reports a strong start for the year. Bernanke says recession could end this year.

ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM Building permits
8.30 AM Housing Starts
8:30 AM PPI
8:30 AM Core PPI


YESTERDAY’S MARKET
With gains in the global markets, the E-mini SP started the session at 762.00. After bouncing to 763.00, the index pulled back to 758.75. With a lot of volatility during the first minutes of the session, the SP bounced to 764.00 where the rally failed. The SP backed off to 759.50 where a double bottom held. After bouncing back to 763.00, the index pulled back once more, bounced to a lower high and leaded by the weakness on the Nasdaq pushed down to 757.50. the index bounced back to 760.50 and tested the lows. While holding at my 756.50 support area, the SP bounced all the way up to 764.50 and once pulled back. With the markets holding the early lows and trying hard to find a direction, the SP pushed up reaching 768.00. After holding near the highs for a few minutes, the SP pulled back to 763.00 and started to trade to the upside, the SP reached a new high at 770.00 and then at 771.50. Once our upside objective was reached, the SP backed off to 768.00, bounced to 770.00, pulled back once more and bounced to test the highs. After posting a double top just at the highs, the SP pulled back to 764.00, bounced back to 766.00 where sellers stepped in, once the index broke below the 761.00area, bear regained control and the markets sold off into the end of the session. The SP lost half point and settled at 754.00, the Nasdaq lost 15.75 points closing the session at 1152.25 and the Russell lost 5.60 points and finished the session at 386.00. The Dow lost 7 points closing at 7216.

.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “The fact that the SP and Dow closed the week above the first KEY resistance levels, 743.00 on the SP and 7200 on the Dow, is an indication that the current rally has more room to move to the upside. Despite the fact that the markets could show a modest pullback, one or two days, or another consolidating session where they fluctuate in a narrow range, the rally may be able to continue and reach the 770.00-780.00 areas in the SP and the 7400-7450 in the Dow. That is the minimum objective for this move, and if those levels get exceeded we may be in front of a stronger move that could last for another 90 days or at least reach the 820.00 area on the SP. So, assuming that the markets could show some congestion in front of next week economic events, Monday’s trading session could give way to trading opportunities in both sides of the markets, with a slightly bearish bias, selling near resistance levels, or buying near support until we have the feeling of what investors are expecting should be the way to go. We have to be careful with any news surprises that in some way have been moving the markets instead of a fundamental or technical basis, but for our trading strategy, the 750.00 pivot point on the SP as an indication of market direction. ”

During the previous sessions I mentioned that the first upside objective for this move was the 771.oo area. I mentioned also, that the current uptrend was not a first degree countertrend that could last 1-4 days; I indicated that we are in a move that at least will continue to move up during the current week, a second degree countertrend. That means that the SP should be able to continue and test the 804.00-805.00 areas while the Dow pushes up to 7500.
Once those levels get reached, the scenario can change, or the SP fails to break higher and starts another fast downward move, or the rally will continue maybe for another 75 days indicating that a solid low has been posted and that probably the last down leg was the last one in this bear trend, that will give way to a long term consolidation. Take into consideration that for the primary trend to change, the markets will have to build a base before we can call the end of the bear era.
Yesterdays move that reached our initial 771.00 objective and from it get sold, could give way to another narrow range or consolidating trading session despite the economic reports to get released today before the opening, but with the FOMC meeting taking place and a rate decision next Wednesday, we probably will continue to hold, but not to brake to the next upside levels near the 800.00 area on the SP and the 7500 on the Dow.
Yesterday’s reversal from a high just at my objective could be interpreted as the end of a first degree countertrend and place the indexes in a position where the selling will get resumed, however, the extension of the move, the velocity to reach the first upside objective, calls for a continuation of the move, no matter if we have another negative session, all the time that the 732.00 area on the SP holds, this move should be able to press higher and maybe reach the levels I indicated around the 800.00 on the SP and 7500 on the Dow.
For today’s trading session, the markets may stay stable in front of the FOMC meeting so opportunities may be found on both sides, obviously I will avoid any short trade if yesterday’s highs get exceeded.

TODAY’S SESSION
There is initial resistance at 756.50-758.50 on the SP, 1157.00-1158.50 on the Nasdaq and 387.50-389.10 on the Russell, if those get exceeded, look for the markets to show some short covering and reach 760.00-761.00 on the SP1164.00-1166.00 on the Nasdaq and 392.40-394.00 on the Russell. If the markets will show a consolidation, these areas are good to enter short, however if those get broken look for the indexes to reach 767.50-768.50 on the SP 1173.00-1174.00 on the Nasdaq and 396.00-396.60 on the Russell.

There is good support at 751.75-750.00 on the SP, 1148.00-1145.50 on the Nasdaq and 384.30-382.90 on the Russell. If those can not hold, look for yesterday’s profit taking to continue pushing the markets down to 747.00-745.50 on the SP, 1141.00-1139.00 on the Nasdaq and 379.20-378.00 on the Russell. Breaking below them will place the late longs under pressure and the indexes could show a bigger pullback reaching 742.00-741.00 on the SP, 1135.00-1133.00 on the Nasdaq and 375.10-373.90 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 771.00-773.00 1180.00-1182.00 400.20-401.60
Resistance 3 767.50-768.50 1173.00-1174.00 396.00-396.60
Resistance 2 760.00-761.00 1164.00-1166.00 392.40-394.00
Resistance 1 756.50-758.50 1157.00-1158.50 387.50-389.10
PIVOT 757.25 1158.00 388.50
Support 1 751.75-750.00 1148.00-1145.50 384.30-382.90
Support 2 747.00-745.50 1141.00-1139.00 379.20-378.00
Support 3 742.00-741.00 1135.00-1133.00 375.10-373.90
Support 4 737.75-736.00 1128.00-1126.50 371.00-368.70


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
878.81 1340.44 470.2
837.60 1278.83 442.8
812.35 1241.08 426.0
796.75 1217.75 415.6
787.10 1203.33 409.2
771.50 1180.00 398.8
761.85 1165.58 392.4
758.88 1161.13 390.4
755.90 1156.67 388.4
746.25 1142.25 382.0
730.65 1118.92 371.6
721.00 1104.50 365.2
705.40 1081.17 354.8
680.15 1043.42 338.0
638.94 981.81 310.6





DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 775.50 1166.00 392.40
AS DAILY LOW 750.50 1128.50 375.60​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

 

[arturo1]

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 18-March-2009

PPI up 0.1%, Housing starts unexpectedly rebound and more asset purchases to avoid deeper contraction gave way to a strong rally.

ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM CPI
8:30 AM Core CPI
10:35 AM Crude Inventories
2:15 PM FOMC Rate Decision


YESTERDAY’S MARKET
After a quite Globex session, the E-mini SP started the session at 750.75 from where it bounced to 754.00. Unable to gain upside momentum, the SP pulled back to 746.00, just at our support levels. With very light volumes, the index bounced to 753.00, backed off to 750.50 and pushed up to 755.50. Whit the markets trading in a narrow range, the SP fluctuated in a 5 point range, 755.00 to 750.00. Finally, the SP pushed higher and traded at 758.25, below the Globex highs. The SP pulled back all the way down to 751.50 and after holding the pivotal 750.75 bounced back once more reaching 757.25 and regardless of the strength on the Nasdaq, the SP held, but with the other indexes continuing to climb, the SP finally broke higher pushing up to 764.50. After a small pullback to 761.50, the SP posted a new marginal high at 765.00 and then continued to press higher reaching 766.75. As the Russell failed to break the double top, the SP pulled back to 758.50, but with strong support holding at that level, the rally get resumed pushing the SP up to new highs at 769.00. The e-mini SP backed off to the 764.00 area where buyers stepped in strongly and pushed the markets strongly up, the first obstacle at 770.50 on the SP was exceeded and the index pushed up reaching 777.00 and holding near the highs into the close. For the day, the SP added 21.25 points and closed at 775.25, the Nasdaq ended higher by 38.00 points closing the session at 1190.25 and the Russell which leaded the move gained 17.30 points ending the day at 403.30. The Dow ended higher by 178 points at 7395.

.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “Yesterdays move that reached our initial 771.00 objective and from it get sold, could give way to another narrow range or consolidating trading session despite the economic reports to get released today before the opening, but with the FOMC meeting taking place and a rate decision next Wednesday, we probably will continue to hold. Yesterday’s reversal from a high just at my objective could be interpreted as the end of a first degree countertrend and place the indexes in a position where the selling will get resumed, however, the extension of the move, the velocity to reach the first upside objective, calls for a continuation of the move, no matter if we have another negative session, all the time that the 732.00 area on the SP holds, this move should be able to press higher and maybe reach the levels I indicated around the 800.00 on the SP and 7500 on the Dow. For today’s trading session, the markets may stay stable in front of the FOMC meeting so opportunities may be found on both sides, obviously I will avoid any short trade if yesterday’s highs get exceeded. ” As anticipated, the markets continued to consolidate for most of the session and traded with low volumes and less volatility than the previous trading sessions. The fact that the SP was able to hold and add, keeps the uptrend intact, and the next coming sessions should give way to higher prices completing the forecasted extension in time of this rally, a second degree countertrend move with 12 to 13 days duration.
While I am expecting the rally to continue, trading session where we have an FOMC rate decision, tend to be tricky, and many times, the real trend is seen during the following day, so, with the difficult to predict what can happen during today’s trading session, be aware that the upside move should be able to continue even if we have one negative session, if that happens, yesterday’s low at the 746.00 level on the SP will have to hold on a closing base to keep this scenario as the ones that has higher probabilities.


The early part of the session will be influenced by the economic data, if those are not worst than expected we should see some short covering in front of the interest rate decision. Once the first 2 hours of trading finish, the market should enter in a "Mexican Siesta or midday sleep" period where nothing happens and everybody takes a couple of hours or goes for and early lunch. Then 15-20 minutes before the announcement, the early move should get reversed as traders start to lighten positions. When the FOMC decision comes out, we should see three different moves during the next 40 minutes, an initial impulsive move that fails, a reversal of that move and the final trend move which is the one that we traders try to follow. Only if you have big bucks and wide stops get involved, and take into account that if you are lucky and you go in the right direction, you could have a quick nice profit. Anyway, stops must be wider than in a regular trading session.

In conclusion, the trend is still up, is strong and while we could see additional short covering before the announcement, be careful as the session may see some volatile moves.

TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at 778.50-780.00 on the SP, 1194.00-1196.50 on the Nasdaq and 405.50-407.10 on the Russell, if the markets open below them, we could see some early profit taking, but if the opening is higher, the indexes may be able to continue with the uptrend reaching 784.00-786.00 on the SP, 1202.50-1204.50 on the Nasdaq and 409.90-411.80 on the Russell. Breaking above them will push the markets up to 791.50-793.00 on the SP, 1213.00-1214.50 on the Nasdaq and 416.00-416.50 on the Russell.


Initial support is at 772.50-770.00 on the SP, 1186.00-1183.00 on the Nasdaq and 401.10-398.90 on the Russell. If those can not hold, some more profit taking may be seen before the rate announcement, that may push the indexes down to 767.50-766.00 on the SP, 1178.00-1176.00 on the Nasdaq and 396.20-395.00 the Russell. If those fail look for the selling to gain some momentum giving way to a test of 760.50-758.50 on the SP, 1169.00-1167.50 on the Nasdaq and 392.20-390.60 on the Russell. Those are pivotal for today’s trading session. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 797.00-798.00 1220.00-1221.00 420.20-421.40
Resistance 3 791.50-793.00 1213.00-1214.50 416.00-416.50
Resistance 2 784.00-786.00 1202.50-1204.50 409.90-411.80
Resistance 1 778.50-780.00 1194.00-1196.50 405.50-407.10
PIVOT 766.00 1176.00 396.20
Support 1 772.50-770.00 1186.00-1183.00 401.10-398.90
Support 2 767.50-766.00 1178.00-1176.00 396.20-395.60
Support 3 760.50-758.50 1169.00-1167.50 392.20-390.60
Support 4 755.00-753.00 1160.75.1159.50 387.10-386.00





S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
908.75 1381.69 506.7
858.16 1308.66 467.5
827.16 1263.91 443.5
808.00 1236.25 428.7
796.16 1219.16 419.5
777.00 1191.50 404.7
765.16 1174.41 395.5
761.50 1169.13 392.7
757.84 1163.84 389.9
746.00 1146.75 380.7
726.84 1119.09 365.9
715.00 1102.00 356.7
695.84 1074.34 341.9
664.84 1029.59 317.9
614.25 956.56 278.7










DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 791.50 1213.25 416.00
AS DAILY LOW 760.50 1168.50 392.00​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

 

[arturo1]

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 19-March-2009

CPI up .4% on gasoline and cars higher prices, World Bank cuts China’s 2009 GDP estimate to 6.5% and FED to buy $300 billion in long term Treasury Bonds gave way to another strong rally.
ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM Initial Claims
10:00 AM Leading Indicators
10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed


YESTERDAY’S MARKET
With the markets trading a bit lower during the Globex session, the E-mini SP started the session at 768.50 from where it pulled back to 766.50 and bounced to 769.25.another pullback to the lows held the selling pressure and gave way to another bounce to 770.75. Unable to continue higher, the SP pulled back to 765.50. With the markets showing some early consolidation, the SP bounced back to 769.50 but failed once more to gain upside momentum. The index made a new low at 764.00, tried to hold there bouncing to 766.00 but sold off to new lows at 761.75 as the selling pressure continued. The SP held, and after building a base, bounced all the way up to 770.00. Whit the markets failing to break above our 772.50 area, sellers stepped back once more and pushed the index down to 764.75. After holding the 764.00 area, the pre FOMC announcement short covering move started, the SP rallied to 774.00, pulled back to 769.00 but bounced once more to 774.50 where the move stalled for a while but before the news pressed higher reaching 777.50. After placing a double top at that level, just before the Fed’s announcement the SP pulled back to 773.50 but exploded to the upside with the news. The SP rallied to 786.00 pulled back, pushed up strongly to 795.00, sold off to 785.00 and moved up to 800.50 where the euphoria ended. The index sold off all the way to 780.25, bounced to 787.00 and pulled back once more. With shorts covering during the last hour of the session, the SP ended the day up by 16.00 points at 791.25, the Nasdaq settled at 1212.75, up 22.50 points and the Russell added 13.50 points closing at 416.80. The Dow closed higher, at 7486 after gaining 90 points.

.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “As anticipated, the markets continued to consolidate for most of the session and traded with low volumes and less volatility than the previous trading sessions. The fact that the SP was able to hold and add, keeps the uptrend intact, and the next coming sessions should give way to higher prices completing the forecasted extension in time of this rally, a second degree countertrend move with 12 to 13 days duration. While I am expecting the rally to continue, trading session where we have an FOMC rate decision, tend to be tricky, and many times, the real trend is seen during the following day, so, with the difficult to predict what can happen during today’s trading session, be aware that the upside move should be able to continue even if we have one negative session, if that happens, yesterday’s low at the 746.00 level on the SP will have to hold on a closing base to keep this scenario as the ones that has higher probabilities. In conclusion, the trend is still up, is strong and while we could see additional short covering before the announcement, be careful as the session may see some volatile moves. ”
Yesterday’s huge rally and late sell off after the Fed announced that it will be buying long term Treasury Bonds in order to press long term rates to the downside, almost pushed the SP to the 805.00 area that I was projecting for this run. It also managed to push the Dow to the 7500 level where I wrote that this index will found strong resistance.
Now we have a high, that has been temporarily rejected and we have a trading area which has to be traded during the next sessions, this means that the huge rally that we saw yesterday will have to get consolidated during the next few sessions. Will the rally continue during the next week? It depends now of the capability of the SP and Dow to break above yesterday’s highs. Obviously, not obviously, but most probable, yesterday’s highs will get checked again. So the trend continues to be to the upside despite the fact that we could see a pullback to the 760.00-750.00 band.
Today, we’ll get some additional economic reports, Friday we have the March triple witching expiration, normally a bullish week, so despite that I will expect two side actions, I will probably maintain a bullish bias for the rest of the week waiting for a test of the 800.00 area on the SP and the 7500 level on the Dow. The fact that the SP closed above the 778.50 area is a bullish sign, and that level should act as strong support for the rest of the week. So, for today’s trading session buying the first decent pullback seems to be the best play of the day, support, the late lows, 780.50 to 778.50, but later in the session once those levels get violated we could see some sell off as a consequence of a characteristic that I mentioned yesterday, sometimes the move that we have on a day when we have a Fed news, gets reversed the next day.
Conclusion, buy the first pullback near the 780.50.778.50 area and get ready for a later sell off.

TODAY’S SESSION
There is initial resistance at 794.50-796.50 on the SP, 1216.00-1218.75 on the Nasdaq and 419.90-421.10 on the Russell. If an early bounce fails to break above those areas, a great shorting opportunity will get set up, but if the markets trade higher, look for the indexes to test yesterday’s highs at 800.00-802.00 on the SP, 1223.00-1225.00 on the Nasdaq and 423.80-425.50 on the Russell. I may take a second chance to short there with tight stops, if the rally is due to continue without any major pullback, look for the indexes to test 807.00-808.00 on the SP, 1231.00-1232.00 on the Nasdaq and 429.00-429.80 on the Russell as markets keep squeezing the short traders in front of the next Friday futures and option expiration.

Initial support is at 787.00-786.00 on the SP, 1204.00-1202.00 on the Nasdaq and 413.90-412.20 on the Russell. Those may hold the first time they get tested, but I will feel more comfortable trying any long entrance at the next support areas, 782.00-780.50 on the SP, 1195.00-1193.00 on the Nasdaq and 407.40-406.00 on the Russell. I may try to get long there with tight stops, if those can not hold then look for the indexes to push lower for a test of the preannouncement lows at 775.00-773.50 on the SP, 1187.00-1186.25 on the Nasdaq and 403.80-402.60 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 812.50-813.50 1239.00-1240.50 433.10-434.20
Resistance 3 807.00-808.00 1231.00-1232.00 429.00-429.80
Resistance 2 800.00-802.00 1223.00-1225.00 423.80-425.50
Resistance 1 794.50-796.50 1216.00-1218.75 419.90-421.10
PIVOT 784.50 1205.50 410.60
Support 1 787.00-786.00 1204.00-1202.00 413.90-412.20
Support 2 782.00-780.50 1195.00-1193.00 407.40-406.00
Support 3 775.00-773.50 1187.00-1186.25 403.80-402.60
Support 4 770.00-768.50 1175.00-1173.00 396.50-395.20





S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
965.19 1425.75 516.3
901.95 1349.05 479.0
863.20 1302.05 456.1
839.25 1273.00 441.9
824.45 1255.05 433.2
800.50 1226.00 419.0
785.70 1208.05 410.3
781.13 1202.50 407.6
776.55 1196.95 404.8
761.75 1179.00 396.1
737.80 1149.95 381.9
723.00 1132.00 373.2
699.05 1102.95 359.0
660.30 1055.95 336.1
597.06 979.25 298.8











DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 815.25 1242.50 429.30
AS DAILY LOW 776.50 1195.50 406.40​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

 

[arturo1]

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 20-March-2009

Initial Claims at 646K, Continuing claims at new record high and FedEx profit collapsing, Leading Indicators down .4%


ECONOMIC DATA
None


YESTERDAY’S MARKET
After trading in a wide range during the Globex session, the E-mini SP started the day at 800.00 and bounced to 801.50, just at our resistance areas. The SP pulled back to 794.25 bounced two points and continued to press lower reaching 785.50 and 784.00, at our pivot point level and just above the Globex lows. Once the sell off lost its momentum, short traders started to cover pushing the index up to 793.75. After the rebound lost its momentum, the selling get resumed and the SP pushed down to a new low at 783.00 where it held for a few minutes but finally broke down to a new low at 778.00. The SP pushed up a few points reaching 783.25, backed off to 779.50 and bounced back once more reaching 785.75. After failing to break higher the SP tested the 780.00 area and bounced back maintaining a sideways pattern that finally broke to the upside pushing the SP to 789.50.after failing to continue to push higher the SP sold off to 778.50. The double bottom gave way to a rebound to 785.00 but with the selling pressure continuing pushing the index back to the lows. For the day the SP lost 11.00poinmts and settled at 780.50, the Nasdaq gave back 9.00 points closing the day at 1203.75 and the Russell ended lower by 5.30 points at 411.40. The Dow, lost 85 points and finished the day at 7400.

.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “Yesterday’s huge rally and late sell off after the Fed announced that it will be buying long term Treasury Bonds in order to press long term rates to the downside, almost pushed the SP to the 805.00 area that I was projecting for this run. It also managed to push the Dow to the 7500 level where I wrote that this index will found strong resistance. Now we have a high, that has been temporarily rejected and we have a trading area which has to be traded during the next sessions, this means that the huge rally that we saw yesterday will have to get consolidated during the next few sessions. Today, we’ll get some additional economic reports, Friday we have the March triple witching expiration, normally a bullish week, so despite that I will expect two side actions, I will probably maintain a bullish bias for the rest of the week waiting for a test of the 800.00 area on the SP and the 7500 level on the Dow. The fact that the SP closed above the 778.50 area is a bullish sign, and that level should act as strong support for the rest of the week. So, for today’s trading session buying the first decent pullback seems to be the best play of the day, support, the late lows, 780.50 to 778.50, but later in the session once those levels get violated we could see some sell off as a consequence of a characteristic that I mentioned yesterday, sometimes the move that we have on a day when we have a Fed news, gets reversed the next day. Conclusion, buy the first pullback near the 780.50.778.50 area and get ready for a later sell off. ”


Markets started the session with a strong note after trading lower during the early night; the rally failed posting a double top on the SP and the other indexes giving way to the scenario that we were expecting, a consolidating session after the last huge rally. The session showed continuing selling pressure but our expected support areas on the SP near the 780.00 area held for the day.
Wednesday’s rally and yesterday’s early bounce that failed, have posted a near term high that may hold for a few days, the markets have to consolidate the last move, and as yesterday, I suspect that the pullback will continue. The markets are overextended and if not today, during the next week they will have to test lower prices, first the 760.00 on the SP.


The Dow, its another story, I wrote about the obvious resistance area around the 7500 level, and even if the last Fed’s measures are trying to draw the floor for this index, a pullback to 7000 won´t make any danger.
Today, the expiration has historically been a bullish day, but the extension of the last move could make difficult for the indexes to continue to push higher without any pullback or a two to three consolidating sessions, so unless the SP breaks above our third resistance level, selling the rallies may be the way to go.


TODAY’S SESSION
There is some resistance at 783.50-785.50 on the SP, 1207.00-1208.50 on the Nasdaq and 413.20-414.50 on the Russell. If the March early expiration will get resolved to the upside, markets should open above them and at least reach 790.00-791.00 on the SP, 1215.00-1216.00 on the Nasdaq and 417.70-418.90 on the Russell. If the indexes managed to break above them expect strong resistance at 794.00-795.00 on the SP, 1221.00-1223.00 on the Nasdaq and 423.50-424.90 on the Russell.

There is strong support just below yesterday’s lows at 778.50-777.00 on the SP 1199.75-1198.00 on the Nasdaq and 410.00-408.90 on the Russell. If the markets hold there, we probably will see another test of the highs during the next trading session, failing to do so, will result in increased downside momentum pushing the indexes down to 774.00-773.50 on the SP, 1194.00-1192.00 on the Nasdaq and 405.80-404.20 on the Russell. If the markets can not bounce from those levels, on a Friday, look for them to reach the previous important high at 770.75-769.50 on the SP, 1186.00-1184.00 on the Nasdaq and 400.50-398.10 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 800.50-802.00 1228.00-1230.50 427.10-428.80
Resistance 3 794.00-795.00 1221.00-1223.00 423.50-424.90
Resistance 2 790.00-791.00 1215.00-1216.00 417.70-418.90
Resistance 1 783.50-785.50 1207.00-1208.50 413.20-414.50
PIVOT 786.50 1207.00 414.00
Support 1 778.50-777.00 1199.75-1198.00 410.00-408.90
Support 2 774.00-773.50 1194.00-1192.00 405.80-404.20
Support 3 770.75.769.50 1186.00-1184.00 400.50-398.10
Support 4 766.00-765.00 1178.00-1176.00 394.50-393.60


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
904.56 1342.81 479.5
864.99 1296.71 457.4
840.74 1268.46 443.9
825.75 1251.00 435.6
816.49 1240.21 430.4
801.50 1222.75 422.1
792.24 1211.96 416.9
789.38 1208.63 415.4
786.51 1205.29 413.8
777.25 1194.50 408.6
762.26 1177.04 400.3
753.00 1166.25 395.1
738.01 1148.79 386.8
713.76 1120.54 373.3
674.19 1074.44 351.2







DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 790.75 1213.00 417.00
AS DAILY LOW 766.50 1184.00 403.50​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

 

[arturo1]

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 24-March-2009

Treasury announces $1 trillion public-private plan to buy bank’s bad assets, Existing Home sales up 5.1% from the previous month gave way to a monster rally.

ECONOMIC DATA
None


YESTERDAY’S MARKET
With huge gains during the Globex session, the E-mini SP started the day at 784.00, below the nightly highs. After a few attempts to break above our 786.50 resistance area, the SP pulled back to 780.50 where buyers stepped in. Once the housing data get released, the index broke the early resistance level and reached the Globex 790.50 highs. A feeble pullback to 787.50 saw new buying coming in and the SP pushed higher to 794.50. With the uptrend is force, the SP pulled back to 792.00 and rallied to a new high at 796.00 and then at 797.50. The SP held near the highs, but a lower high gave way to a pullback to 793.50. After a few attempts to break higher the index finally reached 801.00. After more than one hour holding near the highs, the SP backed off to 796.00 but managed to push higher to a new level, 802.25. Finally, some profit taking was seen and the SP fell to 792.75. Once the move ended, markets resumed their uptrend; the SP pushed up to new highs at 806.75, pulled back to 803.75 and then continued higher to 809.75. With no selling coming into the markets, shorts continued to cover pushing the index to new highs in the final hour of the session. The SP reached 821.00 before pulling a few points into the close. For the day, the SP rallied 54.00 points and settled at 81.00, the Nasdaq added 64.00 points ending the session at 1252.00 and the Russell finished the day at 430.20, up 32.80. The Dow climbed almost 7% adding 497 points closing at 7775.



.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “Last week high at 801.50 coincide with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level between the yearly highs and lows, so it is critical for any further advance on this bear market rally to exceed that level, if that happens, the next Fibonacci areas are at 833.00 and 878.00 on the upside, but if the markets continue to retrace after the last huge move, the SP may be able to found support around 730.00 (the recent rally that started at the 665.75 and reached 801.50, if it shows a 50% retracement that should push the SP lower to 734.00). I have explained in different occasions the time duration of a countertrend move, this one, a second degree move that has the potential to last 13 trading sessions and that it is approaching the time when the move will be in risk, once defined will give us the clues for the next 30 days. If the markets can consolidate during the first three trading sessions of this week, even with an extension of the recent pullback, holding above the 734.00 on a closing base, then this bear market rally has the potential to reach much higher prices, maybe near the 860.00. But slowly, and one day after the other one, for this Monday, the markets may be able to bounce a bit, Friday’s close near the lows may have exhausted the short term pullback, and despite the double top, at least another attack to the recent highs may be seen. For this scenario to be true, the SP will have to hold last Friday’s lows at 761.50.”


Well, I have been bullish and I have pointed that this rally could be able to push higher and reach the 860.00’s, but not in one day. The force, in which prices have moved up 20% from their lows, indicates that this rally may be able to continue reaching the 860.00 on the SP and 8000 on the Dow. However, the rally will be 12-13 days old this during the next few sessions, and the 818.50 area was already reached, so even with the possibilities to continue higher, this too much, too soon move should give way to some consolidation or profit taking during today’s trading session. It is difficult to fight so much strength, and even if the markets will continue to move up, a base will have to be built at some moment, but now that the 804.00 area on the SP and the 7500 on the Dow have been exceeded, the door is open for higher prices. It will be normal, even if the trend is up, to see a one or two day pullback, so be careful when you jump on any long trade during the next 48 hours.
So despite my bullish bias, and the possibilities that this rally will get extended maybe for another 30 days, I may favor the short side all the time that yesterday’s highs are not exceeded by more than 3 full points on the SP. Obviously if the SP opens above those levels, 824.00 I will avoid any short until I see how the markets react to the early highs and resistance levels.
I will also assume that the first decent pullback, 10 to 12 points may be bought as trapped shorts will take opportunity to escape will less loses.

TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at yesterday’s highs, at 819.50-821.00 on the SP, 1258.00-1260.00 on the Nasdaq and 433.40-435.00 on the Russell. A double top or false break by no more than three full points on the SP above those levels could indicate some profit taking. However if those get not reversed, look for the rally to continue reaching 826.00-828.00 on the SP, 1266.00-1268.00 on the NASDAQ and 438.30-439.40 on the Russell, if those can not stop the short covering look for the markets to test 833.00-834.00 on the SP, 1274.00-1275.50 on the Nasdaq and 443.20-444.80 on the Russell. If those get reached I will try to short the SP with tight stops.


There is good support at 812.00-810.00 on the SP, 1245.00-1243.00 on the Nasdaq and 426.90-425.30 on the Russell. An early test of those could offer a good long entry for a test of yesterday’s highs, however, if those fail to hold, look for the indexes to move lower reaching 807.00-805.50 on the SP, 1236.00-1234.00 on the Nasdaq and 421.30-420.50 on the Russell. Once more, those are important levels, and if the markets hold there will indicate that yesterday’s huge rally will get consolidated above the 800.00 on the SP, but if the selling pressure is strong then look for the 802.00-801.50 on the SP, 1227.50-1225.00 on the Nasdaq and 415.50-414.30 on the Russell to be visited before the rally resumes. If those can not hold, then bears could be regaining control. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 837.50-839.00 1281.00-1283.00 449.70-450.20
Resistance 3 833.00-834.00 1274.00-1275.50 443.20-444.80
Resistance 2 826.00-828.00 1266.00-1268.00 438.30-439.40
Resistance 1 819.50-821.00 1258.00-1260.00 433.40-435.00
PIVOT 801.50 1232.00 421.30
Support 1 812.00-810.00 1245.00-1243.00 426.90-425.30
Support 2 807.00-805.50 1236.00-1234.00 421.30-420.50
Support 3 802.00-801.50 1227.50-1225.00 415.60-414.30
Support 4 794.00-792.00 1220.00-1218.00 410.60-408.90



S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1056.88 1561.88 585.6
966.30 1445.19 527.6
910.80 1373.69 492.1
876.50 1329.50 470.2
855.30 1302.19 456.6
821.00 1258.00 434.7
799.80 1230.69 421.1
793.25 1222.25 417.0
786.70 1213.81 412.8
765.50 1186.50 399.2
731.20 1142.31 377.3
710.00 1115.00 363.7
675.70 1070.81 341.8
620.20 999.31 306.3
529.63 882.63 248.3




















DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 846.75 1290.75 450.00
AS DAILY LOW 791.25 1219.00 414.50​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

 

[arturo1]

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 25-March-2009

Home Prices rise for the first time in the last twelve months. Federal Reserve to start buying long term Treasury bonds tomorrow on the $300 billion plan. Markets finished in the red as the last huge rally gets consolidated.

ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM Durable good orders
10:00 AM New Home sales
10:35 AM Crude Inventories


YESTERDAY’S MARKET
After the previous session monster rally, the E-mini SP started the session with some profit taking, the index opened at 807.25 and bounced to 810.50 from where the index backed off to 808.00, tested the early highs and pushed down to 806.75. Another attempt to break higher failed at the 810.00 level giving ways to a new intraday low at 805.25 where it held and rallied all the way up to 815.00, just below our updated resistance area at 816.00. The SP pulled back to 812.00 and bounced to 814.00 where a double top resulted in a sell off to 805.50 just at the early lows. With the markets trading in a sideways pattern the SP bounced back and tested the early highs just to retreat to 808.00. once more the sell off attempt failed and in a quite trading session the SP bounced to 817.00, once that level get broken the index pushed up and reached 820.00. With volume running very light the SP pulled back to 813.00, bounced to 816.00 and continued lower reaching 807.50. With the early lows holding, the SP bounced back to 812.00 but failed to break higher and pushed to new lows into the end of the session.



.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “Well, I have been bullish and I have pointed that this rally could be able to push higher and reach the 860.00’s, but not in one day. The force, in which prices have moved up 20% from their lows, indicates that this rally may be able to continue reaching the 860.00 on the SP and 8000 on the Dow. However, the rally will be 12-13 days old this during the next few sessions, and the 818.50 area was already reached, so even with the possibilities to continue higher, this too much, too soon move should give way to some consolidation or profit taking during today’s trading session. It is difficult to fight so much strength, and even if the markets will continue to move up, a base will have to be built at some moment, but now that the 804.00 area on the SP and the 7500 on the Dow have been exceeded, the door is open for higher prices. It will be normal, even if the trend is up, to see a one or two day pullback, so be careful when you jump on any long trade during the next 48 hours. So despite my bullish bias, and the possibilities that this rally will get extended maybe for another 30 days, I may favor the short side all the time that yesterday’s highs are not exceeded by more than 3 full points on the SP. Obviously if the SP opens above those levels, 824.00 I will avoid any short until I see how the markets react to the early highs and resistance levels.” We came into yesterday’s session looking for the markets to show some profit taking or consolidation, after a few hours where the markets traded in a sideways pattern and even almost reached the previous session high at 821.00 posting a double top on the daily charts, the SP sold off during the last hour of the session.
I have been writing about the nature of the recent bear market rally, its strength and fast motion and the time extension of the move. This second degree rally, which has already reached the 12-14 days, has moved toward the moment where the recent move will have to get defined as a countertrend move or a cyclical trend that may reach 30 days at least in its time duration.
With the rally at risk, the next two trading sessions will give us the clue, or the rally has ended and the downtrend will get resumed to go for a test of the November lows, posting a higher low while the markets build a base for a future upside move, or yesterday’s pullback that can get extended for another session is only a two days pullback in the way for the SP to reach the 860.00’s and for the Dow to get to the 8000 level.
Is last Monday opening gap and huge rally an exhausting move that has already ended? We need to see how the indexes trade during the next couple of days. If this rally will fail to continue the indexes will have to show a wide range downside session that pushes the markets down and maybe fill, in the next 48 hours the open gap from last Monday’s session.
The bullish scenario calls for another session where markets trade in a narrow range with the SP holding near to the 800.00 mark and the Dow closing above the 7500 level.
So under this uncertainty, the opening price could be used as an intraday pivot point to show us the market direction, and the 793.50 level on the SP, from where lat Monday’s move started will have to hold for this market to hold its bullish bias.


TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at yesterday’s early lows, at 805.00-806.50 on the SP, 1240.00-1242.00 on the Nasdaq and 419.30-420.90 on the Russell. If the markets open above them or if the uptrend will get resumed those should be easily exceeded pushing the indexes up to their next levels at 809.00-810.50 on the SP, 1246.00-1248.50 on the Nasdaq and 423.30-424.00 on the Russell. If the consolidation will continue, those could be a good level to short waiting for another session of sideways trading, but if those get broken, look for the indexes to push higher reaching 813.50-815.50 on the SP, 1257.00-1259.00 on the Nasdaq and 426.90-428.10 on the Russell.


There is key support at 801.50-799.50 on the SP, 1230.00-1228.00 on the Nasdaq and 414.50-412.90 on the Russell. An early test of those could offer a good long entry, but if those fail look for a test of 796.50-795.00 on the SP, 1223.00-1221.00 on the Nasdaq and 410.30-409.60 on the Russell. If the indexes can not rally from there, the last support levels before the selling gain momentum will be at 792.00-790.50 on the SP, 1215.00-1213.00 on the Nasdaq and 406.70-405.80 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 819.50-821.00 1265.00-1267.00 431.00-432.30
Resistance 3 813.50-815.50 1257.00-1259.00 426.90-428.10
Resistance 2 809.00-810.50 1246.00-1248.50 423.30-424.00
Resistance 1 805.00-806.50 1240.00-1242.00 419.30-420.90
PIVOT 808.25 1240.50 419.90
Support 1 801.50-799.50 1230.00-1228.00 414.50-412.90
Support 2 796.50-795.00 1223.00-1221.00 410.30-409.60
Support 3 792.00-790.50 1215.00-1213.00 406.70-405.80
Support 4 784.00-782.00 1205.50-1204.00 402.40-401.00


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
899.69 1354.88 504.9
869.09 1316.52 476.3
850.34 1293.02 458.8
838.75 1278.50 448.0
831.59 1269.52 441.3
820.00 1255.00 430.5
812.84 1246.02 423.8
810.63 1243.25 421.8
808.41 1240.48 419.7
801.25 1231.50 413.0
789.66 1216.98 402.2
782.50 1208.00 395.5
770.91 1193.48 384.7
752.16 1169.98 367.2
721.56 1131.63 338.6





DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 811.75 1245.50 423.30
AS DAILY LOW 793.00 1222.00 405.80​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com