daily market outlook

[jebat66]

USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish bias above 113.00. Last Friday, the US stocks rallied over 1%, lifted by financial and energy shares. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.3% to 17213, the S&P 500 gained 1.6% to 2022, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 1.9% to 4748.

Nymex crude oil increased 1.7% to $38.50 a barrel, gold lost 1.8% to $1248 an ounce, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose further to 1.977% from 1.927% Thursday.

On the forex front, the euro gave back some gains made against the US dollar in the previous session, with EUR/USD declining 0.2% to 1.1150. And USD/JPY was up 0.6% to 113.80. On the other hand, GBP/USD rose a further 0.8% to 1.4385, AUD/USD surged 1.5% to 0.7563 and NZD/USD was up 1.3% to 0.6750. Meanwhile, USD/CAD lost 1.0% to settle at 1.3208, below the 200-day moving average again.

Traders should be shifting focus to this week's Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting.The pair has found the key support at 113.00, trading around the 20-period (30-minute chart) moving average, which stands above the 50-period one. As long as the bullish bias is maintained, the pair is expected to proceed toward the first upside target at 114.25 (a key resistance tested repeatedly within the month) and in extension the second one at 114.50.

Trading Recommendation:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 114.25 and the second one at 114.50. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 112.70 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 112.20. The pivot point is at 113.

Resistance levels: 114.25, 114.50, 114.85

Support levels: 112.70, 112.20, 111.85

 

[jebat66]

USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bullish bias. The pair is still in an uptrend, and both rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages are acting as support. Technically, the relative strength index is above its neutrality area of 50, calling for a new rebound. Last but not least, the key horizontal support of 0.9790 maintains the strong buying pressure. To sum up, as long as 0.9790 is not broken, further advance is likely to occur to 0.9895 and 0.9940 in extension.

Trading Recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9895 and the second one at 0.9940. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9755 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.9725. The pivot point is at 0.9790.

Resistance levels: 0.9895, 0.9940, 1.0010

Support levels: 0.99, 0.9875, 0.9850

 

[jebat66]

NZD/USD is expected to trade in a higher range as the bias remains bullish. The pair is turning up, supported by its rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index stands firmly above its neutrality area of 50. Furthermore, the process of higher highs and lows remains intact, which should confirm a positive outlook. In these perspectives, as long as 0.6675 holds on the downside, we are looking for a new bounce to 0.6780 and 0.6815 in extension.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6780 and the second one at 0.6815. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6645 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.66. The pivot point is at 0.6675.

Resistance levels: 0.6780, 0.6820, 0.6860

Support levels: 0.6645, 0.66, 0.6570

 

[jebat66]

GBP/JPY is expected to prevail its upside movement. The pair remains in a bullish trend, and is expected to challenge its next resistance at 164.15 in coming trading hours. A bullish breakout of this threshold is more likely to occur as the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are heading upward, which should continue to push prices higher. Besides, the relative strength index is above its neutrality area of 50. To sum up, as long as 162.80 (a horizontal support) is not broken, the price is likely advance to 164.15 and 164.60 in extension.

Trading Recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 164.15 and the second one at 164.60. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 162.20 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 161.35. The pivot point is at 162.80.

Resistance levels: 164.15, 164.60, 165.35

Support levels: 162.20, 161.35, 160.50

 

[jebat66]

Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for March 14, 2016

General overview for 14/03/2016:

There is one more wave to be completed in the recent bullish impulsive rally before any meaningful correction will take place. The projected target level for wave 5 purple is at the level of 127.80, just where the golden trend-line dynamic resistance is. After making this local high for wave 5, the market should develop the sub-corrective wave and test the level of 125.88 before another impulsive leg upwards happens.

Support/Resistance:

127.26 - Intraday Resistance

126.05 - Weekly Pivot

125.58 - Intraday Support

124.82 - WS1

121.83 - WS2

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should buy the dips in this market with SL below the level of 126.05 and TP at the level of 127.80.

 

[jebat66]

Wave summary:

The support area between 1.6445 - 1.6521 held perfect for a new rally. In the short term, I will be looking for a break above 1.6703 as the first good indication that the next impulsive rally is building for a rally towards 1.7220 and above. To confirm the rally towards 1.7220 a break above 1.6845 will be needed, but we do not think it will take a lot of effort to break this resistance.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.6595 and will move stop higher to 1.6460. If you are not long EUR yet buy a break above 1.6845 and use the same stop, but expect to raise it quickly.

 

[jebat66]

Wave summary:
The break below minor support at 126.03 is the first strong indication that the corrective wave b terminated at 127.27 and wave c now is developing for a decline to 119.90 and maybe even lower to 117.35.

In the short term, the former support at 126.03 now acts as resistance for a continuation lower to 123.01 and below here confirms the decline to 119.90 and maybe lower.

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 126.79 and will move our stop lower to 126.75. If you are not short EUR yet, then sell near 126.03 and use the same stop.

 

[jebat66]

USD/CHF is expected to trade in a higher range as a technical rebound is expected. The pair is slightly turning up, and is likely to challenge the resistance at 0.9895 in the coming trading hours. A strong support base around 0.9800 has formed, and should limit downside room. Furthermore, the rising 50-period moving average now acts as a support role. In this prospect, above 0.9800, expect a new technical rebound to 0.9940 and 0.9995 in extension.

Trading Recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9940 and the second one at 0.9995. In the alternative scenario, short position is recommended with the first target at 0.9755 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.9725. The pivot point is at 0.980.

Resistance levels: 0.9940, 0.9995, 1.0030

Support levels: 0.9795, 0.9725, 0.9675

 

[jebat66]

NZD/USD is under pressure. The pair clearly reversed down, and is now expected to challenge its support at 0.6615 in sight. The falling 20-period and 50-period moving averages play resistance roles, and should continue to push the prices lower. Last but not least, the relative strength index is still below its neutrality area at 50. In which case, as long as 0.6730 is not surpassed, look for a new drop to 0.6615 and 0.6590 in extension.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6615. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.6590. The pivot point stands at 0.6730. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6770 and the second target at 0.6815.

Resistance levels: 0.6770, 0.6815, 0.6860

Support levels: 0.6615, 0.6590, 0.6550

 

[jebat66]

GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range as key resistance is set at 162.80. The pair remains under pressure below its nearest resistance at 1.3315, and is likely to post a new decline. The process of lower highs and lows remains intact, which should also confirm a negative outlook. Besides, the relative strength index lacks upward momentum. Hence, as long as 162.80 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 161.35 remains high.

Trading Recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 161.35. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 160.70. The pivot point stands at 162.80. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 163.40 and the second target at 164.15.

Resistance levels: 163.40, 164.15, 164.60

Support levels: 161.35, 160.70, 160

 

[jebat66]

Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for March 15, 2016

After forming a double bottom near 122.50, EUR/JPY started to move higher towards higher highs and higher lows. While growing, the price broke above the strong technical and psychological resistance at 125.00. Also, the pair broke above 1.618 and then 2.618 of the Fibonacci channel, which could mean that the further growth potential is still very likely. The Fibonacci applied to the first corrective wave down after the breakout of the resistance at 125.00 that represented a potential upside target, being at 361.8% retracement level. It also coincides with the 361.8% Fibonacci channel retracement.

Consider buying EUR/JPY, while the price is near S1 (126.00) targeting R2 (128.60). The stop loss should be placed just below the major support of 125.00.

Support: 125.00, 126.00

Resistance: 126.80, 128.60

 

[jebat66]

Technical analysis of EUR/GBP for March 15, 2016

On March 10, after the news release, EUR/GBP sharply surged, breaking above the descending channel. The rise stopped, once the price tested the strong support level of 0.7835 (R2), which is 23.6% Fibonacci applied to the channel breakout point.

At the same time, the price bounced off the 1.618% of the Fibonacci channel, thus confirming the resistance one again. After resistance had been rejected, the price corrected down and found the support at S2 (61.8% Fibs). It is clear that the price has stuck between support S2 and resistance R2.

After such actions, the trading range is expected where the current wave up is likely to continue to test either R1 (.7800) or R2 (0.7835) once again.

Consider looking for buying opportunities on pullbacks between S1 and S2, targeting either R1 or R2. The stop loss should be placed just below the most recent low (0.7735)

Support: 0.7740, 0.7770

Resistance: 0.7800, 0.7835

 

[jebat66]

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver re-tested resistance at $15.80 yesterday before pulling back in a sharp manner. The metal is seen to be trading lower at $15.30, looking for an opportunity to push further towards the levels of $14.50 before turning bullish. The metal might be unfolding into a flat corrective structure at the moment and could terminate the level of $14.50 to complete the same. Bears are expected to remain in control until prices stay below $15.80/90. It is hence recommended to hold short positions, with risk at $15.90. Immediate resistance is seen at $15.80, while support is found at $15.10/15.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short with stop at $15.90, a target is open.

Good luck!

 

[jebat66]

Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.6869. In the daily time frame, we can observe a demand bar in an average volume. In the H4 time frame, I found a broken downward channel (high volume breakout) in the background, which is a strong sign for a potential upward movement. The price respected the previous swing high (resistance) at the level of 1.6840. Watch for a potential breakout of 1.6840 to confirm further upward movement. I have placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential upward targets and resistance levels. I got Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at the level of 1.6940, Fibonacci expansion 100% at the level of 1.7200 and Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the level of 1.7670. Watch for potential buying opportunities on dips.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6860

R2: 1.6920

R3: 1.7020

Support levels:

S1: 1.6665

S2: 1.6603

S3: 1.6510

Trading recommendation for today: Watch for potential buying opportunities on dips.

 

[jebat66]

USD/CHF is expected to trade with bullish bias above 0.9845. The pair remains in consolidation in the range 0.9845 to 0.9940. A support base at 0.9845 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilization. Besides, the relative strength index is mixed, and calls for caution. Therefore, as long as 0.9845 is not broken, look for a choppy price action with the bullish bias. A break above 0.9940 would open the path to 0.9990.

Trading Recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9940 and the second one at 0.9995. In the alternative scenario, short position is recommended with the first target at 0.98 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.9750. The pivot point is at 0.9845.

Resistance levels: 0.9940, 0.9995, 1.0030

Support levels: 0.98, 0.9750, 0.9675

 

[jebat66]

View :

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,232.00. It can be seen on the daily time frame chart that the price broke the upward trend line (support) and confirmed potential continuation of a downward trend. According to the 30M time frame, I found a potential intraday bearish flag formation. Watch for a valid breakout of a bearrish flag to confirm a further downward price.Take profit is set at $1,192.50. Watch for potential selling opportunities on the rallies.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,235.40

R2: 1,237.60

R3: 1,240.50

Support levels:

S1: 1,229.40

S2: 1,227.50

S3: 1,224.50

Trading recommendations for today: be careful when buying gold, watch for selling opportunities on rallies.

 

[jebat66]

NZD/USD is under pressure. The pair is heading downward, capped by its negative 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index is bearish below its neutrality area at 50, and also lacks upward momentum. The process of lower highs and lows remains intact, which should confirm a bearish outlook. As long as the resistance at 0.6660 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 0.6570 remains high.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6570. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.6540. The pivot point stands at 0.6660. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6705 and the second target at 0.6730.

Resistance levels: 0.6705, 0.6730, 0.6770

Support levels: 0.6570, 0.6540, 0.65

 

[jebat66]

Overview:

The NZD/USD pair dropped from the level of 0.6726 to the bottom around 0.6581. But the pair has rebounded from the bottom of 0.6581 to close at 0.6617. Today, the first support level is seen at 0.6581, and the price is moving in a bearish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set below the strong resistance at the level of 0.6636, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This resistance has been rejected several times confirming the downtrend. Additionally, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend. As a result, if the NZD/USD pair is able to break out the first support at 0.6581, the market will decline further to 0.6529 in order to test the weekly support 2. In the H4 time frame, the pair will probably go down because the downtrend is still strong. Consequently, the market is likely to show signs of a bearish trend. So, it will be good to sell below the level of 0.6636 with the first target at 0.6581 and further to 0.6529. At the same time, the breakdown of 0.6640 will allow the pair to go further up to the levels of 0.6726 in order to retest the weekly pivot point again

 

[jebat66]

GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a lower ground as the key resistance is at 161.05. The pair remains under pressure after the downside breakout of its key horizontal level at 161.05. The previous support now acts as a resistance, which should limit any upside room. Besides, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are turning down, calling for a new decline. Hence, look for further downsides to 159.40 and 158.70 in extension below 161.05.

Trading Recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 159.40. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 158.70. The pivot point stands at 161.60. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 161.85 and the second target at 162.85.

Resistance levels: 161.85, 162.85, 163.40

Support levels: 159.40, 158.70, 158

 

[jebat66]

Overview:

The USD/CHF pair didn't make any significant movements yesterday. There are no changes in our technical outlook. The bias remains bearish in the nearest term testing 0.9802 or lower. Immediate support is seen around 0.9870. A clear break below that area could lead price to the neutral zone in the nearest term. Price will test 0.9802, because in general, we remain bearish on March 16th, 2016.
Yesterday, the market moved from its bottom at 0.9830 and continued to rise towards the top of 0.9890. Today, on the one-hour chart, the current rise will remain within a framework of correction. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 0.9910 (major resistance), the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the strong resistance level of 0.9910 (the level of 0.9910 coincides with tha ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement). Since there is nothing new in this market, it is not bullish yet. Sell deals are recommended below the level of 0.9910 with the first target at 0.9802 so as to test the double bottom. If the trend breaks the double bottom level of 0.9802, the pair is likely to move downwards continuing the development of a bearish trend to the level of 0.9721 in order to test the weekly support 1.