daily market outlook

[jebat66]

Global macro overview for 09/03/2016:

Bank of England governor Marc Carney enraged Brexit-ers in his testimony before the Treasury select committee on Tuesday. He called a transition out of the EU the biggest domestic risk to financial stability. He mused that the UK assets could be perceived by foreign investors as more risky. And he added that some parts of the financial services industry could relocate. Meanwhile, economists pushed back their bets on when the BoE would start to hike rates to early 2017, due to a weaker global economy and stubbornly low inflation. In conclusion, the outcome of the British national referendum in June is getting to be hotter and hotter. The outcome is unknown yet, but it will be the most important fundamental event of the year with global consequences.

Let's now take a look at the technical picture of GBP/USD pair in the H4 time frame. The market has broken above the 61%Fibo level and the technical resistance at the level of 1.4234, but it still trades below the brown trend line. The nature of the rebounded from the local low at the level of 1.3839 looks corrective and as long as the gap is hasn't been filled the bear remain in control of the market

 

[jebat66]

Technical analysis of USD/CAD for March 10, 2016

General overview for 1003/2016:

The current count is evolving towards the complex WXYXXZ correction. The downside risk is greater than the upside one as there is uncompleted sub-waves in the last stage of the correction. As this kind of corrective cycle can consume more time than a simple corrective cycle, be prepared for more fake breakouts, choppy trading conditions and low volatility in this market.

Support/Resistance:

1.3733 - WR3

1.3661 - WR2

1.3498 - Technical Resistance

1.3461 - WR1

1.3396 - Weekly Pivot

1.3372 - Intraday Resistance

1.3228 - Intraday Support

1.3188 - WS1

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should refrain from trading and wait for a better trading setup to occur in the near term. We recommend to place buy orders again when the corrective structure is completed

 

[jebat66]

Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for March 10, 2016

General overview for 10/03/2016:

The leading diagonal triangle in the black wave 1 had been completed sooner than expected, so the downward wave progression from 125.56 high was labeled as the wave 2. Currently, the market is still trading inside the neutral zone, but the first attempts of the impulsive bullish wave development are visible. The bulls need the break out above the intraday resistance at 125.56 to continue the rally towards the 126.90 level. Only a sustained violation of the 123.08 level will invalidate the bullish impulsive scenario.

Support/Resistance:

127.99 - WR2

126.90 - WR1

125.55 - Intraday Resistance

124.48 - Weekly Pivot

124.25 - Intraday Support

123.41 - WS1

123.09 - Intraday Support

122.06 - Swing Low

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should open buy orders from the current price levels with SL below 123.08 and TP at 126.09 min

 

[jebat66]

EUR/USD: There is still a shallow correction in this market. The price is expected to rise again, going towards the resistance line at 1.1050 and breaching it to the upside, while the price travels further north. A movement below the support line of 1.0900 would render this expectation invalid

 

[jebat66]

USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair continues to consolidate between the support level of 0.9900 and the resistance level of 1.0000, which is an important level. This consolidation has been going on for a few weeks, but a strong breakout is imminent, and that may happen today or tomorrow. Right now, the USD and the CHF have the same stamina.

 

[jebat66]

GBP/USD: This currency trading instrument has consolidated so far this week. However, the bias remains bullish: the EMA 11 is above the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 is not below the level of 50. The price is likely to go upwards when a breakout does occur. Some fundamental figures are expected today and they could have a significant impact on the market.

 

[jebat66]

USD/JPY: After consolidating for a few weeks, the USD/JPY pair generated a sell signal on Tuesday, forming a clean Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart. Nevertheless, the sell signal is in jeopardy owing to the upwards bounce that happened yesterday, which pushed the price up by 150 pips. In case the price goes above the supply level of 114.50, the recent sell signal would be invalid. If the price trends lower and lower, the recent sell signal would be reinforced.

 

[jebat66]

EUR/JPY: The present consolidation posed a threat to the current bullish outlook on the EUR/JPY pair, for the outlook on the market could turn neutral in case it moves sideways for a few more trading days. The current bullish outlook is so vulnerable that any movement below the demand zone at 123.50 would easily render it useless. Therefore, price movements, which we see today or tomorrow, would determine the fate of this cross.

 

[jebat66]

USD/JPY is expected to continue its bullish bias. US indices closed higher on Wednesday led by shares in the Energy (+1.54%), Software & Services (+1.32%) and Food, Beverage & Tobacco (+0.93%) sectors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2% to 17000.4, the S&P 500 gained 0.5% to 1989.3, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.6% to 4674.4.

Nymex crude oil was up 4.9% to $38.3 a barrel, while gold fell 0.4% to $1257.4 an ounce. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 1.892% from 1.832% previously.

The US dollar was bearish against most of its counterparts on Wednesday with the exception of the JPY. On the economic data front, MBA mortgage applications index rose 0.2% in week ended March 4th after falling 4.8% in prior week. In other news, Jan. wholesale inventories increased by 0.3% to $584.2B (estimated fall of 0.2%) vs. $582.6B in prior month revised to 0.0% from -0.1%.

Trading Recommendation:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 114.25 and the second one at 114.50. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 112.70 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 112.20. The pivot point is at 113.

Resistance levels: 114.25, 114.50, 114.85

Support levels: 112.70, 112.20, 111.85

 

[jebat66]

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair spiked downward and then broke upwards. The price is now above the support line of 1.1150, poised to trend further upwards. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, and there is a possibility that the resistance levels of 1.1250 and 1.1300 might be tested today or next week.

 

[jebat66]

USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair spiked upwards and broke downwards later. The price is now below the resistance level of 0.9900, poised to trend further downwards. There is now a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, and there is a possibility that the support levels of 0.9800 and 0.9750 might be tested today or next week

 

[jebat66]

GBP/USD: This pair is still in an equilibrium phase, but a closer look at the chart reveals that bulls are still determined to push the price further upwards. Therefore, the price is expected to move above the distribution territory of 1.4300 soon. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market and it is logical to conclude that further upwards movement is possible.

 

[jebat66]

USD/JPY: This is a volatile market, with no particular direction, save upswings, and downswings, which are short-term in nature. For a directional movement to occur in the market, the price would need to go above the supply level of 114.50 or below the demand level of 112.50. Without this condition being fulfilled, it is better to stay away from the market.

 

[jebat66]

EUR/JPY: Bulls have won on the EUR/JPY cross this week. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 is above the level of 50. The price is now above the demand zone of 126.50: it could reach the supply zones at 127.00 and 127.50 within the next few trading days. After all, the outlook on some JPY pairs is bright for this month.

 

[jebat66]

Global macro overview for 11/03/2016:

The crude oil inventories has again crushed the market expectations by delivering better-than-anticipating data again. Market participants had expected an increase of 3500 K barrels after the massive upbeat seen last week (10374k barrels), but the released number was at the level of 3880 K barrels. Nevertheless, investors seem to be more interested in the news that the OPEC and other oil producers were planning to meet in Moscow on March 20 to discuss prospects for production capping. We will see if this meeting turns out to be a game-changer for oversupplied oil market. In conclusion, oil prices have slightly risen by 25% since mid-February, but with a huge oversupply in the commodity market and no signs of demand increasing, prices could reverse and head towards the symbolic level of $30 again.

Let's now take a look at the technical picture of the crude oil in the H4 time frame. Crude trades above the golden trend line and every touch with 21 EMA results in another spike up. Currently, bulls have broken above the important resistance at the level of 38.39 and they are in full control over the market. Only a sustained break out below the technical support at the level of 36.13 would change the current bullish picture.

 

[jebat66]

Global macro overview for 11/03/2016:

The ECB cut the interest rate to the level of 0.0% from 0.05% yesterday as Mario Draghi unleashed the bazooka on its yesterday's meeting. As well as cutting all its main rates, the bank lifted its asset buying program by 20 billion euro a month and, in a bombshell, expanded the assets to include non-bank corporate debt. In conclusion, yesterday's scenario one described by me before the ECB meeting has been completely fulfilled. Moreover, it is worth to mention, that ECB's head Mario Draghi stated clearly that the regulator do not anticipate that it will be necessary to reduce rates further. This means the negative interest rates in the EU are off the table for now.

Let us now take a look at the EUR/USD pair after the data release. The market rally had been capped at the level of 1.1218. Bulls seem to have the control over the market for now as the next support is seen at the level of 1.1066 and the next resistance is an old swing high at the level of 1.1376.

 

[jebat66]

Technical analysis of USD/CAD for March 11, 2016

General overview for 11/03/2016:

The weekly pivot point at the level of 1.3396 was tested after the data release and it capped the price. The result was the price reversal as the downside risk is greater than the upside one due to uncompleted sub-waves in the last stage of the correction. As this kind of corrective cycle can consume more time than a simple corrective cycle, be prepared for more fake breakouts, choppy trading conditions, and low volatility in this market.

Support/Resistance:

1.3733 - WR3

1.3661 - WR2

1.3498 - Technical Resistance

1.3461 - WR1

1.3396 - Weekly Pivot|Intraday Resistance

1.3228 - Intraday Support

1.3188 - WS1

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should refrain from trading and wait for a better trading setup to occur in the near term. We recommend to place buy orders again when the corrective structure is completed

 

[jebat66]

Since our last analysis was published, gold has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,247.83 in an average volume. In the daily time frame, we can observe weak supply, which is a sign of strength. In the M30 time frame, I found a strong support zone ((high volume zone) around the level of $1,249.00. I have placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential upward target and resistance level. I got Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at the level of $1,276.50. Watch for potential buying opportunities on dips.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,254.35

R2: 1,255.60

R3: 1,257.70

Support levels:

S1: 1,250.30

S2: 1,248.90

S3: 1,246.90

Trading recommendations for today: be careful when selling gold, watch for buying opportunities on dips.

 

[jebat66]

Overview:

The GBP/USD pair faced support at the level of 1.4312, while strong support is seen at 1.4188. Resistance is found at the levels of 1.4436 and 1.4507. Also, it should be noted that a weekly pivot point has already set at the level of 1.4312. Equally important, the GBP/USD pair is still moving around the key level of 1.4312, which represents a weekly pivot in the H1 time frame. Today, the GBP/USD pair will probably continue to move upwards from the level of 1.4312. In consequence, we expect the GBP/USD pair to continue moving in the bullish trend from the support level of 1.4312 towards the target level of 1.4436 so as to test the double top in the same time frame. If the pair succeeds in passing through the level of 1.4436, the market will indicate the bullish opportunity above the level of 1.4436 in order to reach the second target at 1.4507. On the other hand, if a breakout happens at the support level of 1.4300, then this scenario may be invalidated.

Intraday technical levels:

R3: 1.4826
R2: 1.4631
R1: 1.4507
PP: 1.4312
S1: 1.4188
S2: 1.3993
S3: 1.3869

 

[jebat66]

Overview:

The EUR/USD pair is trading around the area of 1.1110 today. In the H1 time frame, the level of 1.1062 represents a weekly pivot point. Hence, the pair has already formed minor support at 1.1062 and the strong support is seen at the level of 1.09000 because it represents the weekly support 1. From this point, major resistance is seen at 1.1302, while immediate support is found at 1.1062. If the pair closes below the weekly pivot point of 1.1062, the EUR/USD pair may resume it movement to 1.0906 to test the weekly support 1. We expect the EUR/USD pair to move between the levels of 1.1110 and 1.0906 this week. Equally important, the RSI is still calling for a strong bearish market as well as the current price is also below the double top. As a result, sell below the weekly pivot point of 1.1062 with targets at 1.0970 and 1.0906 in order to test the weekly support 1. Nevertheless, stop loss should always be taken into account, accordingly, it will be of beneficial to set the stop loss above the last bullish wave at the level of 1.1315.

Intraday technical levels:

R3: 1.1698
R2: 1.1458
R1: 1.1302
PP: 1.1062
S1: 1.0906
S2: 1.0666
S3: 1.0510