Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

S&P 500 Index Price Falls Amid Negative News
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Yesterday, disappointing news about the US economy was released. According to ForexFactory:
→ The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell from 48.5 to 46.8 (analysts expected a rise to 48.8), indicating a decline in industrial production.
→ The number of unemployment benefit claims reached 249,000 – the highest in 12 months.

As a result, US stock indices declined, with bearish sentiment further driven by weak Q2 reports from several companies:
→ Intel decided to halt dividend payments (INTC shares plummeted by 19%).
→ Amazon reported a revenue decline (AMZN shares dropped by 6%).

The outperformance of sectors such as consumer staples, healthcare, and utilities compared to technology stocks suggests that investors fear a recession and are rotating into more stable assets.

Meanwhile, the daily S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) indicates a vulnerable position – since mid-April, the price has been moving within an upward channel (shown in blue), but today it is near the lower boundary, creating a risk of a bearish breakout.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 
USD/CHF Falls to Lowest Level in Nearly Six Months
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As today's USD/CHF chart shows, the exchange rate has fallen below 0.872 – the Swiss franc hasn't been this strong against the US dollar since early February this year.

Bearish sentiment is driven by:
→ Expectations of a Fed rate cut, weakening the US dollar;
→ Low inflation in Switzerland – today's CPI data shows -0.2%;
→ Geopolitical tension, particularly the escalation in the Middle East following the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and the anticipated response from Iran.

Market participants appear to view the franc as a "safe haven."

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 
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  • Market Reacts Mildly To Fed Decision, Focus Shifts To Nonfarm Payrolls
  • USD/JPY Falls Below 150 Yen Per Dollar
  • MSFT Share Price Plummets After Earnings Report, But It’s Not All Bad
  • META Shares Rise Above $500

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors.


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What Is Market Capitulation, and How Can You Trade It?
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Market capitulation occurs when investors collectively surrender to market fears, leading to a sharp decline in asset prices. This article delves into the mechanics of capitulation, how to identify it, and ways to trade effectively during these tumultuous times.

Understanding Market Capitulation
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Market capitulation refers to a phenomenon where a large number of investors simultaneously give up on the market, leading to a rapid and substantial decline in asset prices. This mass surrender is driven primarily by panic and fear of further losses. Capitulation often marks the peak of a bearish trend and is typically characterised by a significant spike in trading volumes and sharp price declines.

Stock capitulation occurs when investors, overwhelmed by fear and uncertainty, rush to sell their assets to avoid further losses. This behaviour is often triggered by prolonged market downturns or significant economic events. For instance, during the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, the S&P 500 experienced a nearly 5% drop in a single day, a classic example of market capitulation. This event led to a subsequent 17% rebound in the index over the following week, highlighting how capitulation can precede a market turnaround.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 
The Nikkei 225 Index Has Plummeted to a Nine-Month Low
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As shown by the Nikkei 225 (Japan 225 on FXOpen) chart:
→ In less than a month, the index price has dropped by more than 25%, providing grounds to suggest the start of a bear market;
→ The price has approached the psychological level of 30,000 points – the last time the price was this low was in autumn 2023.

Bearish sentiment is being driven by a combination of the following factors:
→ Negative news from the US labour market, published on Friday – this has significantly increased discussions about the likelihood of a recession;
→ The Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike last Wednesday to support the excessively weak yen.

As we wrote on 15 July, while analysing the Nikkei 225 index (Japan 225 on FXOpen):
→ Signs of bearish activity were observed around the 41,330 level;
→ The upward channel may break in the second half of the year.

It turned out that the bullish channel was broken much earlier and in an extremely aggressive manner – the bulls attempted to resume the trend from its lower boundary (shown by the black arrow), taking advantage of the 38,000 support, but were defeated.

What could happen next?
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 
EUR/USD Analysis: The Rate Has Risen to a Nearly 5-Month High
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As shown by today’s EUR/USD chart, the rate rose this morning to 1.096 – its highest level since mid-March.

On one hand, this was driven by the weakness of the dollar. The USD fell sharply against other currencies following the release of labour market news on Friday (data from ForexFactory hereafter):
→ The unemployment rate reached 4.3% – the highest since autumn 2021;
→ In July, employers created only 114,000 jobs (excluding the agricultural sector) compared to the forecast of 175,000. Last month’s figure was 179,000;
→ Wage growth is showing signs of slowing down.

The rapid deterioration of the labour market is an early sign of a recession. This is indicated by the rule of Claudia Sahm, who worked at the Federal Reserve for over 10 years.

On the other hand, the EUR/USD is rising due to the strength of the euro. Today, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) figures were released in Europe – all are above the 50.0 level, indicating growth in the Eurozone economies.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 
How Do Dovish and Hawkish Monetary Policies Affect Markets?
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In the intricate dance of global finance, central banks play a leading role, their policies echoing through markets and economies. The terms "dovish" and "hawkish" encapsulate their strategies towards interest rates and money supply, each with profound implications for currency values and investor strategies.

This FXOpen article explores how these stances offer valuable insights for traders in understanding the forex market’s movements and the broader economic landscape.

Understanding Dovish vs Hawkish
In the world of economics, central banks use monetary policy to navigate between stimulating growth and controlling inflation. This delicate balance is often characterised by two primary stances: dovish and hawkish. Understanding these policies is crucial for traders, as they significantly influence domestic economic conditions and the forex market.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors.
 
Dollar Adjusts After Disappointing Labour Market Data
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The release of very weak data on average wages and the number of new jobs in the US contributed to the dollar's decline and sharp fluctuations in the currency and stock markets. On Friday, the NonFarm Payrolls report showed that:

  • The number of new jobs stood at 114K, while the forecast was 176K;
  • The average wage increase was recorded at 0.2%, whereas 0.3% was expected;
  • Unemployment rose (4.3% against 4.1%).

A weak labour market coupled with slowing inflation could signal that the Federal Reserve may begin to lower the base interest rate in the coming months.

USD/CAD

At the start of this week, the USD/CAD pair tested two-year highs around 1.3950-1.3900. It has not yet managed to strengthen above this level, but if buyers can hold the price above 1.3800, the pair might attempt to resume growth towards the psychological resistance level of 1.4000. A break of the support at 1.3800-1.3780 could lead to a deeper downward correction towards 1.3740-1.3700.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 
Nasdaq Composite Index: A Ray of Hope
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On July 31, we noted that the Nasdaq Composite Index (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) had reached significant support, highlighting trendline A and warning of potential volatility spikes due to fundamental news from the Federal Reserve and earnings season.

Since then, the price of the Nasdaq Composite Index (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen):
→ Jumped to the 19540 level;
→ But encountered resistance there (indicated by an arrow), as this was previous support;
→ And returned to trendline A.

Thus, we have an argument that can be interpreted as the bulls' inability to resume the upward trend. The bears seized the opportunity to take control and break below trendline A on August 2.

Contributing factors included:
→ The decline in the Japanese stock market, which we wrote about yesterday. It is possible that the extremely strong sell-off of Japanese company shares affected sentiments in the US.
→ Increasing talks of a recession due to very weak US labour market data (published on Friday, which we also covered yesterday).

At the low point yesterday, the Nasdaq Composite Index (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) dropped by 7% from Friday's close. Of course, this isn't comparable to March 16, 2020, when the index fell by 12.32%, or October 19, 1987 (known as "Black Monday"), when it dropped by 11.35%. Nonetheless, the mood was grim – as CNBC reports, the stock market had its worst day in about two years. The RSI index fell to the oversold boundary.

But not all is bleak.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 
Apple (AAPL) Share Price Influenced by Psychological Factors
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The first factor is the news that Warren Buffett is halving his position in AAPL shares. Whether this indicates that the legendary investor foresees the company losing its market leadership or a recession threat, Buffett's authority may create a psychological effect on retail investors and prompt them to sell their shares.

The second factor is the breach of the $200 psychological level. After the strong rise above $200 per share in June, it seemed the price had securely settled above this round number. However, it's not uncommon for breakout tests to occur, stop-loss orders to be triggered, and the supply-demand balance to shift, resulting in price growth. For example, yesterday's price action saw the bulls nearly close a 7% bearish gap.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 
Market Analysis: GBP/USD Dives While EUR/GBP Gains Strength
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GBP/USD started a fresh decline from the 1.2860 resistance zone. EUR/GBP is rising and might climb above the 0.8620 resistance.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

  • The British Pound is showing bearish signs below the 1.2800 support.
  • There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2750 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
  • EUR/GBP is gaining pace and trading above the 0.8500 zone.
  • There is a short-term contracting triangle forming with support near 0.8570 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair failed to stay above the 1.2860 pivot level. As a result, the British Pound started a fresh decline below 1.2820 against the US Dollar.

There was a clear move below 1.2800 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The bears pushed the pair below 1.2750. Finally, there was a spike below the 1.2680 support zone. A low was formed near 1.2673 and the pair is now consolidating losses.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 
How to Trade Commodities? Five Popular Strategies
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Whether you're a seasoned trader or new to the world of commodities, understanding the various available strategies can play an important role in building an effective trading plan. In this article, we’ll explain five commodity trading strategies that you can get started with today.

Commodity Trading Explained
Commodity trading refers to the buying and selling of raw materials and industrial components in the financial markets. While forex trading deals with currencies, commodities trading primarily deals with physical goods. Typically, commodities fall into four broad categories: energy, metals, agricultural, and environmental.

There are many reasons why people buy and sell commodities. Some trade them as a way of hedging against inflation, particularly precious metals. Others might use them to take advantage of a booming economy, as demand for energy, metal, and food usually increases in times of economic growth.

TO VIEW THE FULL ARTICLE, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors.
 
Analysis of Amazon (AMZN) Share Price After Disappointing Report
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On Thursday, Amazon released its second-quarter report:
→ Earnings per share: actual = $1.26, forecast = $1.03;
→ Gross sales: actual = $147.98 billion, forecast = $148.66 billion.

Amazon’s CFO, Brian Olsavsky, attributed the decline in sales to distractions caused by Trump’s news coverage and the Olympics, suggesting people spent more time reading news and less time shopping on Amazon.

As a result, the sales forecast for the third quarter fell short of expectations, with management estimating between $154 billion and $158.5 billion, while analysts’ average estimate was $158.24 billion.

Investors were disappointed by this news, causing Amazon’s share price to drop approximately 9% on Friday, creating a wide bearish gap. On Monday, the price also opened with a bearish gap and continued to fall, creating a precarious situation.

However, by Monday’s close, the bulls had recovered the early trading losses, and on Tuesday, AMZN showed some stability, staying close to Monday’s closing price.

Does this mean the downward trend (with AMZN’s price now more than 20% below its July all-time high) has run its course?
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 
USD/JPY Analysis: Rate Stabilizes After Tsunami
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Less than a month ago, the rate was above 161 yen per US dollar. This week, it dropped below 142.5 yen (approximately -12%).

The strengthening of the Japanese yen was driven by actions from the Bank of Japan and financial authorities:
→ Intervention to support the yen in mid-July;
→ An interest rate hike last week.

On its downward trajectory, the USD/JPY rate broke through:
→ The ascending trendline (shown in purple);
→ The median line of a large ascending channel (shown in blue) that began in 2023;
→ The psychological levels of 160 and 150 yen per dollar.

The bears' aggression seems to have exhausted near the lower boundary of the blue channel. This was aided by statements from authorities aimed at stabilising financial markets, including the Japanese stock market.

Specifically, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said: “I believe that the bank needs to maintain monetary easing with the current policy interest rate for the time being, with developments in financial and capital markets at home and abroad being extremely volatile.” He also noted that concerns about the US economy, combined with actions from the Bank of Japan, triggered the volatility.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 
Candlestick Wick Meaning and Trading Strategies
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Understanding the subtle cues provided by candle wicks can unlock new dimensions in trading strategy development. These seemingly minor details offer profound insights into market sentiment and price action dynamics. This article delves into the meaning behind candle wicks and explores strategic ways to trade them, equipping traders with the knowledge to potentially enhance their trading performance.

Understanding Candle Wicks

Candle wicks, extending beyond the body of the candlestick, offer a deeper insight into market dynamics than open and close price levels. Their lengths and positions relative to the candle body unveil the tug-of-war between buyers and sellers within a given timeframe.

A long wick candle to the upside suggests that buyers pushed the price higher, but sellers eventually overcame, driving the price down from its peak. Conversely, a lengthy lower wick indicates sellers initially dominated, with buyers making a strong comeback.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors.
 
Yen in Correction: Factors for Potential Growth
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In August, the Japanese yen became one of the most popular instruments in the forex market. Following an unexpected rate hike by the Bank of Japan and weak labour market data from the US, the USD/JPY pair dropped by more than 1000 pips, settling below the psychological level of 150.00. The divergent monetary policies of the US and Japanese regulators contributed to increased volatility in yen pairs. However, after a speech by the Bank of Japan's Deputy Governor, the yen sharply corrected. Shinichi Uchida stated that "it is necessary to maintain the current level of monetary easing," which the market interpreted as a signal that the yen's rate is unlikely to increase this year.

Currently, the yen is experiencing a corrective pullback. Let's consider the possible developments in the upcoming trading sessions.

USD/JPY
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Technical analysis of the USD/JPY pair indicates a potential continuation of the corrective pullback, as a "bullish harami" pattern formed on the daily timeframe two days ago. If the recent high at 147.90 is surpassed, the price may test the important area of 151.00-150.00. A decline below 145.40-145.00 could lead to a resumption of the downward movement towards 142.00-141.00.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 
Is the Japanese Stock Market Stable Today?
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On July 11, the Nikkei 225 index (Japan 225 on FXOpen) started to decline. Notably, on July 15, we observed bearish activity around the 41330 level.

Interestingly, US stock indices also began to fall on July 11. However, the Japanese stock market saw a more dramatic drop, exceeding 25% by the August 5 low.

Has the Japanese stock market continued to fall? No. After a alarming Monday on August 5, the price has been recovering. It closed higher on Tuesday and Wednesday, with bullish signs observed today, Thursday.

Analyzing the Nikkei 225 (Japan 225 on FXOpen) chart on Monday, we noted that:

→ The price dropped to a support block between 30,400 and the psychological level of 30k.

→ A strong bounce from this block could indicate activated demand (a sign of an emotional selling climax in Wyckoff's terminology).

We then suggested that this support block would hold, and the Japanese stock market might enter a consolidation phase to establish a new balance of supply and demand.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 
Silver Price Finds Support Near 3-Month Low
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As shown on the XAG/USD chart, the price of silver is currently around $26.75 this week, marking the lowest level since early May.

In our analysis of silver on June 6, we noted:

→ Silver was underperforming gold—a bearish sign;

→ Other bearish indicators included a double top pattern near the $32 per ounce level.

Since the close on June 6, silver prices have dropped by more than 14%, with:

→ A bearish head-and-shoulders pattern forming above the psychological level of $30 per ounce;

→ The price breaking below the median line of an ascending channel (shown in blue);

→ The price establishing a downward channel (shown in purple), with the $29 level acting as resistance (indicated by an arrow).

One of the drivers of this decline has been recession fears in the U.S. economy, as commodity markets typically experience downward trends during recessions.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 
Renko Trading Strategies: How To Trade With Renko Charts
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Renko charts stand out in the trading world for their unique ability to filter market noise and highlight significant price movements, offering a clearer view of market trends. This FXOpen article delves into the synergy between Renko charts and various trading indicators, unveiling four strategies designed to navigate the complexities of the financial markets.

Understanding Renko Charts

Renko charts, derived from the Japanese word 'renga' meaning 'brick', offer a distinctive approach to charting price movements in the financial markets. Unlike traditional candlestick charts that plot price changes over time, Renko charts focus solely on price movement, disregarding time and volume. This method is known for its simplicity and effectiveness in identifying market trends and reducing noise.

Renko charts consist of Renko bars (or bricks), where each bar represents a fixed price movement. Each new Renko bar is plotted at a 45-degree angle from the previous one to the right. The size of the movement, known as the "box size", is predetermined by the trader.

TO VIEW THE FULL ARTICLE, VISIT THE FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors.
 
Eli Lilly Shares Surge Over 9% After Strong Earnings Report
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As the chart of Eli Lilly's (LLY) share price shows today, yesterday's trading closed at a level more than 9% higher than Wednesday's closing price. The main driver of this growth was a strong Q2 report:

→ Earnings per share: actual = $3.92, expected = $2.74;
→ Gross sales: actual = $11.3 billion, expected = $9.99 billion.

Market participants reacted positively not only to the fact that the American pharmaceutical company's actual results significantly exceeded forecasts but also to Eli Lilly's rising expectations for the second half of the year, driven by demand for its diabetes treatment Mounjaro and weight loss drug Zepbound.

Technical analysis of the Eli Lilly (LLY) stock chart shows that:
→ The price action is forming an upward channel in 2024 (shown in blue);
→ After a rebound, the median line of this channel was breached (as indicated by the arrow);
→ As could be expected, this line acted as resistance – as indicated by the high of yesterday's candlestick.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 
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