Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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GBP/USD Correcting Gains, EUR/GBP is Facing Key Resistance

GBP/USD is facing resistance near 1.4000 and it is correcting gains. EUR/GBP is consolidating above 0.8550 and it could start a decent increase if it clears 0.8600.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP

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• The British Pound is struggling to settle above the 1.4000 resistance zone.
• There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.3925 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
• EUR/GBP is forming a strong support base above 0.8550 level.
• There was a break above a connecting bearish trend line at 0.8575 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

After a sharp rally, the British Pound failed to stay above 1.4100 against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair declined and it even settled below the 1.4000 support zone.

It even dived towards the 1.3800 level and broke the 50 hourly simple moving average. Recently, there was a strong upward move above the 1.3900 level, but the pair struggled to clear the 1.4000 resistance zone.

A high is formed near 1.4004 on FXOpen before the pair dipped again. There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.3925 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.

It traded as low as 1.3862 before recovering higher. There was a break above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.4004 high to 1.3862 low.

However, the pair is facing resistance near the 1.3950 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.4004 high to 1.3862 low is also acting as a resistance.

The main resistance is still near 1.4000, above which the pair could rally again. On the downside, the 1.3900 level is a decent support. The next major support sits near the 1.3850 level, below which the pair could slide towards the 1.3800 level. Any more losses might call for a test of the 1.3720 support zone.




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Rising Yields Put Pressure on the Fed at Wednesday’s Meeting

The main event of the week for financial markets is the Fed’s FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Besides the regular statement, the Fed will reveal its economic projections, and the market will focus on the dots plot that shows the federal funds rate forecast for the next three years.

The event is particularly important for traders because the dollar is at crossroads. If the Fed signals a liftoff before 2024, the markets will take it as a hawkish signal that would trigger a wave of dollar buying. On the other hand, if the dots plot do not show any increase until 2024, the Fed signals its willingness to keep accommodative conditions despite the recent fiscal stimulus.

Challenges for the Fed

The big challenge for the Fed comes from the long-term yields, which rose recently. While the move higher is insignificant on the long-term charts, it does signal an unwanted tightening of financial conditions.

Moreover, the move higher in the yields generated a dollar rally at the end of February, tempered only by the new round of fiscal stimulus from Biden’s administration. Should the yields rise further, the investors may turn their attention to the dollar again. Yields typically rise during the economic recovery, and the new fiscal stimulus package leads to faster recovery.

Ahead of Wednesday’s meeting, the dollar remains offered – the EURUSD is back above 1.19, the AUDUSD is above 0.77, and the GBPUSD trades close to 1.40. If the Fed hints at no rate hike until 2024, the dollar may take another dive. On the other hand, if the Fed is pressured by the rising yields and hints at a rate hike as early as 2023, the dollar may rally, sending the EURUSD below its recent 1.1840 support.

All in all, traders are guaranteed to see high volatility and quick price action as the Fed unveils its economic projections.




FXOpen Blog

 

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February 2021 TOP 10 PAMM Accounts Overview

Although the winter is over, the early spring has not made things much brighter around the world. However, PAMM account managers continue to trade actively, adapting their strategies to the changing market. Investors’ goals are still the same — they want to invest their money in the most promising PAMM accounts with minimum risk and maximum profit.

On March 1, 2021, FXOpen launched a new round of “Money Managers” competition, where participants can not only show their skills in PAMM account management but also win up to 5,000 USD in prizes. Registration is open until May 1.




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BTC and XRP – Support found

BTC/USD

The price of Bitcoin has fallen today to $53,548 at its lowest point from which we have seen an increase of 5.4% as a minor recovery was made to $56,388. Currently, the price is sitting at $55,893 as a pullback is being made but the price is still in an upward trajectory overall.

Looking at the hourly chart, you can see that the price has fallen back to the 0.382 Fibonacci level measured from the upward impulse from the start of the month to its new all-time high made on the 13th of March. This could be and most likely is the 4th wave out of the five-wave impulse to the upside from the next starting impulse wave to the upside. If that is true, then the price cannot fall inside the territory of the 1st wave which would be below the 0.5 Fib level at $52,361.

Now as we have seen a bounce off of the significant horizontal level at $54,497 it could mark the completion of this 4th wave which is why the increase seen today would be the 1st sub-wave of the next move to the upside that is set to push the price of Bitcoin above its prior all-time high an on to the new one. However, this has to be validated as the price could now be headed further down. The point of validation would be an increase above the 0.236 Fib level or the invalidation if the price continues moving below the 0.382 support.


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EUR/USD and EUR/JPY: Euro is Facing Hurdles

EUR/USD started a fresh decline after it failed to surpass 1.2000. EUR/JPY is correcting gains and it is likely to struggle near the 130.00 zone.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY

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• The Euro topped near the 1.2000 level and started a fresh decline.
• There is a key declining channel forming with resistance near 1.1930 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
• EUR/JPY tested the 130.50 and recently declined to test the 129.50 support.
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 129.65 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Recently, the Euro made an attempt to climb above the 1.2000 resistance against the US Dollar, but it failed. The EUR/USD pair started a fresh decline and broke the 1.1960 support zone.

The pair even broke the 1.1945 support level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It traded as low as 1.1882 on FXOpen before the pair started consolidating losses. It climbed above 1.1900, but there was no bullish momentum.

An initial resistance is near the 1.1915 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1951 high to 1.1882 low. The next major resistance is near the 1.1925 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

There is also a key declining channel forming with resistance near 1.1930 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. The channel resistance is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1951 high to 1.1882 low.

Therefore, the pair is likely to face a strong resistance near the 1.1925 and 1.1930 levels. A clear break above 1.1930 might start a fresh increase towards the 1.2000 resistance.

If not, there are chances of more losses in EUR/USD below the 1.1880 support zone. The next major support is near the 1.1850 level, below which the pair could dive towards the 1.1800 support level.






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LTC and EOS – At key pivot points

LTC/USD

From Tuesday’s low at $192.55, the price of Litecoin has been on the rise again and came up to $208 at its highest point today, which was an increase of 8.4%. Currently, it is being traded at $204.34 as the minor pullback is being made but the price is still in an upward trajectory overall.

On the hourly chart, you can see that the price fell back to 0.382 Fibonacci level on Tuesday where it found support and bounce back to the upside. However, the recovery we have seen isn’t that significant which is why there is still a possibility that it is corrective in nature and is the part of the higher degree downfall that is set to push the price of Litecoin below the $200 area again.

All said is applicable on the higher time frame and could be viewed as a fractal, as from the start of the month we have seen a recovery that could be corrective and would lead to a lower low compared to the one made on the 28th of February. This is why now we could either be seeing the start of the 5t wave in a bullish scenario or the second sub-wave of the higher degree five-wave move to the downside.

The pivot point is the 0.382 Fibonacci level whose breakout to the downside would invalidate the bullish count, but today’s bounce from it indicates that it is still the main expected outlook.

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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Showing Signs of a Breakdown

AUD/USD started a fresh decline from well above 0.7800 and declined below 0.7750. NZD/USD is also declining and it seems like it could break the 0.7150 support zone.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD

• The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline below the 0.7820 and 0.7800 support levels against the US Dollar.
• There was a break below a couple of bearish continuation patterns near 0.7800 and 0.7755 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
• NZD/USD declined sharply after it failed to surpass the 0.7270 resistance area.
• There is a crucial bullish trend line forming with support near 0.7160 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

After a decent upward move above 0.7800, the Aussie Dollar faced sellers near 0.7850 against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair traded as high as 0.7848 on FXOpen and recently started a fresh decline.

There was a break below a few important supports near 0.7800. There was also a break below a couple of bearish continuation patterns near 0.7800 and 0.7755 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.

The pair even broke the 0.7780 support level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. A low is formed near 0.7724 on FXOpen and the pair is currently struggling to recover. An initial resistance on the upside is near the 0.7753 level.

It is close to the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.7848 high to 0.7724 low. The next major resistance is near the 0.7770 level or the 50 hourly simple moving average.

The main resistance is forming near the 0.7785 level. The 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.7848 high to 0.7724 low is also near 0.7785. If there is no recovery above 0.7770 or 0.7785, there is a risk of more losses.

An initial support is near the 0.7725 level. If there is a downside break below 0.7725 and 0.7710, the pair could accelerate lower. In the stated case, it could even decline below 0.7700 and test 0.7650.

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GBP/USD Struggles Below 1.3900, USD/CAD Could Extend Gains

GBP/USD started a fresh decline after it failed to surpass the 1.4000 resistance. USD/CAD is rising and it is showing a lot of positive signs above the 1.2800 level.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD

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• The British Pound started a fresh decline after it was rejected near the 1.4000 area.
• There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near 1.3910 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
• USD/CAD traded towards the 1.2375 support zone before starting an upside correction.
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.2455 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

This past week, the British Pound made another attempt to clear the 1.3990 and 1.4000 resistance levels against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair failed to gain strength and started a fresh decline below the 1.3950 support zone.

There was a clear break below the 1.3920 support level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. There was also a break below the 1.3850 support level. Moreover, there was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near 1.3910 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.

The pair traded as low as 1.3817 on FXOpen and it is currently consolidating losses. An initial resistance on the upside is near the 1.3850 level. It is close to the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3959 high to 1.3817 low.

The first major resistance is near the 1.3880 level. The 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3959 high to 1.3817 low is also near 1.3880 level.

The main resistance is now forming near 1.3910 and the 50 hourly simple moving average. A successful close above the 1.3880 and 1.3900 levels could open the doors for a decent increase in the coming sessions.

Conversely, the pair might continue to move down below the 1.3820 and 1.3800 support levels. Any more losses may possibly open the doors for a push towards the 1.3740 support level.




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Crude Oil Price Drops from the Highs, But Bullish Pressure Remains

One of the most spectacular market rallies this year formed on the oil market. After the dip below the zero level in April 2020, the price of oil rallied to $68 in March 2021.

The move higher comes in line with rising global demand as the global trade volume reaches pre-pandemic levels. However, the price of oil is higher now than the pre-pandemic levels and triggers expectations of higher inflation ahead.

Oil and Inflation – Why Should Traders Care?

The problem with higher oil prices is that they trigger higher inflation expectations. As such, central banks are forced to intervene because they all use inflation as part of their mandate. More precisely, higher inflation above a central bank’s target leads to the central bank rising the interest rates. Hence, the currency market is the first one to be impacted by a move in the price of oil. Because traders try to anticipate the moves well ahead, the volatility in the currency market increases with the volatility in the oil market.

Last week’s drop of over 7% on a single trading day spooked some investors, but the price of oil found strong support at the $60 level. Moving forward, the focus shifts to the OPEC+ meeting scheduled at the start of April.

While the global oil demand increased in the last months as more economies reopen after lockdowns generated by the pandemic, there is still room to go. At current levels, demand is still less than pre-pandemic levels, so the price of oil may make new highs if the supply does not meet demand.

Speaking of supply, if OPEC does not increase production in the second quarter of the year, the risk is that the price of oil will make new highs. The vaccination pace in advanced economies is strong enough to trigger rapid economic recovery, creating a positive environment for further advances in the price of oil.




FXOpen Blog

 

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BTC and XRP – Correction possibly over

BTC/USD

The price of Bitcoin has been moving sideways from the 17th of March when it came up to $59,600 until the 20th when it paid another revisit to those levels. However, after a failure to break the $60,000 mark to the upside we have seen a rejection that caused a breakout from the symmetrical triangles and a low to $52,924.

Now we are seeing a minor recovery with the price currently being traded at $54,528 and has bounced nicely forming a V shape. The descending move was a five-wave impulse which is why we could have seen the completion of the WXY correction.

In that case, the price is now making its first attempts to establish an uptrend as the 1st wave from the next impulsive wave to the upside started. However, there could still be a possibility of another lower low to the significant $51,940 level.

If we have seen the completion of the 4th wave correction, then the price of Bitcoin is now headed towards the new all-time high, potentially in the zone between $72,000 and $68,000.




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EUR/USD Turns Red, USD/JPY Is Correcting Gains

EUR/USD started a fresh decline and traded below the key 1.1880 support zone. USD/JPY is correcting gains and it is now trading below the 108.80 support.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY

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• The Euro failed to continue higher above 1.1950 and started a fresh decline.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1915 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
• USD/JPY started a downside correction from well above the 109.00 level.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 108.65 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

In the past few days, the Euro struggled to gain bullish momentum above 1.1950 against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair formed a swing high near 1.1946 on FXOpen and recently started a fresh decline.

There was a break below a few important supports near the 1.1890 and 1.1880 levels. The pair even settled below the 1.1880 support zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average. A low is formed near 1.1836 and the pair is currently consolidating losses.

An initial resistance is near the 1.1860 level. It is close to the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1946 swing high to 1.1836 low.

The first major resistance is now forming near the 1.1890 and 1.1880 levels. The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1946 swing high to 1.1836 low is also near 1.1891. Moreover, there is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1915 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.

Therefore, the pair must clear 1.1880 and 1.1920 to start a strong increase in the coming sessions. Conversely, the pair could continue to move down below the 1.1836 low. The first major support is near the 1.1820 level.

If there is a downside break below the 1.1820 support, the pair could dive towards the 1.1750 support in the near term. Any more losses might call for a test of the 1.1715 support level.




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LTC and EOS – Decrease seen but for how long?

LTC/USD

From the start of the week, the price of Litecoin has been in a decline, coming from its Monday’s high at $197.68 to $170.92 at its lowest point today, which was a decrease of 13.53% It is now stabilizing around $173 after a steep downfall made from yesterday when the price decreased by 12.7% as the price recovered close to the levels of Monday’s high before moving to the downside again.

Looking at the hourly chart, you can see that the bearish count has been validated in which from the start of March we have seen an ABC correction to the upside. In that case, the descending move from the 13th of March is the 3rd wave from the higher degree correction and is now forming as a five-wave move. It appears that could end very soon around the 0.618 Fibonacci level at tje $167 area, but there would be a possibility that the descending might continue to the 0.786 one.

This is because by projecting the length of the first wave from the higher degree correction when the price of Litecoin was $245 and went to $155, we come up with a price target of $143.




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Gold Price Stuck Below $1,750, Oil Price Facing Hurdles

Gold price started consolidating in a range above the $1,720 support. Crude oil price is now trading below $60.00 and $60.50 resistance levels.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil

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• Gold price is trading in a range above the $1,720 support against the US Dollar.
• There are two connecting bearish trend lines forming with resistance near $1,738 on the hourly chart of gold.
• Crude oil price is holding the key $57.50 and $57.40 support levels.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $59.80 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Gold price made an attempt to surpass the $1,750 resistance against the US Dollar, but it failed. As a result, there was a fresh decline, but the bulls were active above the $1,720 support.

It seems like the price is forming a strong support base above the $1,720 zone. The recent low was formed near $1,722 on FXOpen before the price started an upward move. It broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $1,745 swing high to $1,722 low.

An immediate resistance is near the $1,730 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The next key resistance is near the $1,733 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $1,745 swing high to $1,722 low.

There are also two connecting bearish trend lines forming with resistance near $1,738 on the hourly chart of gold. To start a strong increase, the price must clear trend lines and $1,740.

The main resistance is still near $1,750, above which the price could start a strong rally. Conversely, the price could fail to continue higher and it might decline below the $1,725 level.

The main support is near the $1,720 zone. A clear break below the $1,720 support may possibly start a strong decline towards $1,700 or even $1,680 in the near term.




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GBP/USD and GBP/JPY: British Pound Eyes Additional Gains

GBP/USD found support near 1.3670 and it is now correcting higher. GBP/JPY is rising and it remains supported for more gains above 150.00

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY

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• The British Pound declined below 1.3800, but it found support near 1.3670 against the US Dollar.
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.3740 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
• GBP/JPY is trading nicely above the 105.00 and 105.20 resistance levels.
• There was also a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 149.20 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

This past week, the British Pound saw a bearish wave below the 1.3850 support zone against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair even broke the 1.3720 support level.

However, the pair found support near the 1.3670 zone. A low was formed near 1.3670 on FXOpen and the pair recently started a fresh increase. It broke the 1.3700 and 1.3720 resistance levels.

There was also a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.3740 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. The pair is now trading nicely above the 1.3750 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

It is testing the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the key decline from the 1.4001 high to 1.3670 low. The first major resistance on the upside is near the 1.3825 level.

The next major resistance is near 1.3835 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the key decline from the 1.4001 high to 1.3670 low. A clear upside break above the 1.3825 and 1.3835 resistance levels could open the doors for a larger increase.

If there is a fresh decline, the previous resistance near 1.3740 or the 50 hourly simple moving average might provide support. If there are additional losses, the pair could decline towards the 1.3700 level.




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Strong Dollar Breaks the Reflation Theme – All Eyes on the U.S. Yields

2020 proved to be a challenging year for currency traders looking to forecast how the U.S. dollar will react to the pandemic. The Federal Reserve of the United States (Fed) immediately lowered the fed funds rate to the lower boundary (i.e., close to zero) and vouched to leave it there for as long as necessary.

On top of that, the Fed restarted the quantitative easing program, buying bonds to lower the yields on the short and long end of the curve. Furthermore, it opened USD swap lines with other central banks in the advanced world to provide liquidity and advert the strong dollar theme.

It worked.

The dollar initially appreciated as the world looked for safety in the face of the pandemic, but then the Fed’s plan entered into effect. Slowly at first, more aggressively after, the dollar started to lose ground across the dashboard.

Everything appreciated in dollar terms – the euro, the Australian dollar, the British pound, equities, and commodities alike. The bearish trend on the dollar was so strong that all investment houses forecasted an even lower dollar in 2021.

They were right.

The so-called reflation trade, where U.S. equities advance, the dollar declines, and risk-on dominates, was the theme for most of the first quarter of the year. However, the dollar started to show some strength recently on the back of a faster economic recovery, impressive vaccination campaign, and a U.S. administration that delivers.

What’s Next for the U.S. Dollar?

As we head into the second quarter of the year, the dollar trades with a mixed tone. On the one hand, it gained against the euro since the year started.

At the start of January, the EURUSD pair traded above 1.23, and last Friday closed below 1.18. Because the euro has the biggest weight in the dollar index, the move lower in the EURUSD exchange rate led to a reversal in the DXY.

Gold made a new all-time high in 2020 – it traded above $2,000 last summer but is in retreat ever since. It is barely holding above $1,700 at the moment, and fears of higher inflation in the United States and the developed world are not enough to fuel a rally in the yellow metal.

The problem for the reflation trade and gold comes from the fixed-income market. The U.S. yields are rising, and whenever this happened in the past, gold weakened.

Put it simply, rising yields mean that investors flee the safety of bonds in search of higher returns in riskier assets. Effectively, it means that confidence is back and, thus, gold suffers as investors do not look for protection anymore.

Higher yields also bode well for the dollar. Hence, before betting on a lower dollar, investors should first monitor the fixed-income market and interpret where the yields will go.

All in all, the second quarter will be extremely interesting. If the yields continue to rise, the dollar will have a hard time weakening.






FXOpen Blog

 

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BTC and XRP – Looking bullish

BTC/USD

The price of Bitcoin has been on the rise since the 25th of March when it fell to $50,420 level. From there a recovery of 17.38% was measured to its highest point so far at $59,236. Currently, it is being traded slightly lower but is still on an upward trajectory.

The low on the 25th was the end of the corrective stage in which the price was since the 13th of March and as the third wave ended we have seen the start of the next impulsive move to the upside.

As its first wave looks like it has already developed now we could be already seeing the start of 3rd sub-wave from the five-wave impulse. The price would be now expected to continue moving upward above its last all-time high and potential somewhere around $68,000-$72,000 zone.

It is still soon to project the ending point so we are going to watch closely how the price action develops and reevaluate our projection accordingly. There could be a possibility that we are seeing an even higher degree impulse wave, increasing the room for growth.

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EUR/USD Dives, USD/CHF Likely To Continue Higher

EUR/USD started a fresh decline below the 1.1800 and 1.1780 support levels. USD/CHF is rising and it is likely to continue higher above 0.9450.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF

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• The Euro started a fresh drop below the 1.1850 and 1.1800 support levels against the US Dollar.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1755 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
• USD/CHF is trading in a bullish zone above the 0.9350 resistance zone.
• There is a key ascending channel forming with support near 0.9405 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro failed to stay above the 1.1900 zone and started a fresh decline against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair broke the key 1.1850 pivot zone to move into a bearish zone.

The pair even broke the 1.1820 support level and settled below the 50 hourly simple moving average. The bears were able to push the pair below 1.1800 and a low is formed near 1.1709 on FXOpen.

It is currently showing a lot of bearish signs and it seems like there are high chances of more losses below the 1.1700 support zone. The next major support could be near the 1.1660 level, below which the pair may possibly test the 1.1620 support.

On the upside, an initial resistance is near the 1.1730 level. It is close to the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1804 high to 1.1709 low.

There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1755 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. The trend line is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1804 high to 1.1709 low.

The 50 hourly simple moving average is also near 1.1760. If there is a break above the trend line resistance, the pair could correct higher towards the 1.1800 zone. The next major resistance is near the 1.1850 level.




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LTC and EOS – More upside expected

LTC/USD

The price of Litecoin has been on the rise from the 25th when it was being traded at $169. We have seen an increase of 18.7% as the price came up to $200 at its highest point today. Currently it is being traded slightly lower but is still in an upward trajectory overall.

Looking at the hourly chart, we can see that the price came up to the 0.382 Fibonacci level and made an attempt to break out above it but failed to do so. The first attempt was made on the 29th from which we have seen some sideways movement below the level before finally another attempt was made today. The price would now be expected to make pullback as the 3rd attempt for a breakout failed, but we haven’t seen a rejection just yet.

If from the 25th we have seen the development of the 4th corrective wave out of the five-wave impulse to the downside now the price would be starting the development of its 5th wave to the downside which would be set to achieve a lower low compared to the 25th one. However, there could be a possibility that the decrease ended as a three-wave move as the part of the higher degree complex correction count, in which case the ascending move would be the first sub-wave of the next starting impulse to the upside.

In either way, we are going to see from the interaction with the 0.382 Fib level what would be the scenario, as if it manages to go above it, it would enter the territory of the 1st wave and invalidated the possibility of a lower low.




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Gold Price and Oil Price Eye Additional Gains

Gold price started a fresh increase after testing the $1,680 support zone. Crude oil price is trading nicely above $60.00 and it might continue to rise steadily.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil

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• Gold price remained well bid near the $1,680 and $1,675 levels against the US Dollar.
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near $1,708 on the hourly chart of gold.
• Crude oil price is holding the key $59.50 and $60.00 support levels.
• There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near $60.55 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Earlier this week, gold price extended its decline below the $1,710 and $1,700 support levels against the US Dollar. However, the bulls were active near the $1,680 and $1,675 levels.

A low was formed near $1,677 on FXOpen before the price started a fresh increase. There was a break above the $1,695 and $1,700 resistance levels. The price climbed nicely above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,745 swing high to $1,677

There was also a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near $1,708 on the hourly chart of gold. The price is now trading well above $1,710 and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

It is now testing the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,745 swing high to $1,677 low. A successful break above the $1,730 resistance could open the doors for a larger increase in the coming sessions.

The next key resistance is near the $1,745 level. The main resistance is still near $1,750, above which the price could test $1,780. Conversely, the price could fail to continue higher and it might decline below the $1,720 level.

The main support is near the $1,705 level. A clear break below the $1,705 support may possibly start a strong decline towards $1,675 in the near term.




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[Resolve]

GBP/USD Could Accelerate Higher, EUR/GBP Remains At Risk

GBP/USD is facing resistance near 1.3850, but it might accelerate higher. EUR/GBP is facing an increase in selling pressure below 0.8550.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP

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• The British Pound is showing positive signs, but it is facing resistance near 1.3850.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at 1.3810 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
• EUR/GBP declined below the 0.8580 and 0.8550 support levels.
• There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.8510 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

After forming a support base above 1.3720, the British Pound started a fresh increase against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair broke the 1.3780 and 1.3800 resistance levels to move into a positive zone.

There was also a close above the 1.3800 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair is now facing a strong resistance near the 1.3850 level. The recent high was formed near 1.3852 on FXOpen before there was a minor downside correction.

There was a break below the 1.3825 level. The pair even declined below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3746 swing low to 1.3852 high.

The pair is now holding the 1.3800 support zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at 1.3810 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. The trend line is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3746 swing low to 1.3852 high.

If there is a downside break below the trend line, the pair could decline towards the 1.3780 and 1.3770 support levels. Any more losses might lead the pair towards the key 1.3720 support.

On the upside, the pair is facing hurdles near the 1.3850 level. A clear upside break above the 1.3850 level could open the doors for a steady increase. In the stated case, GBP/USD could rise towards the 1.6000 level in the near term.




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