Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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Analytical US Stock Market Outlook for 2025–2030 and Beyond

The S&P 500 is a cornerstone of the US stock market, reflecting the performance of 500 major companies across diverse industries. This article examines the index's historical performance, provides a detailed analysis of key drivers shaping its future, and offers insights into what analysts expect in their S&P 500 forecasts for the next 5 years and beyond.

S&P 500 Price History

Established in 1957, the S&P 500, or S&P 500 index, is a benchmark index that tracks 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. It acts as a key gauge for the overall state of the US economy and financial markets, with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) often acting as the primary investment vehicle for the index.

Inception to 2008

The S&P 500 began at a level of 44 in 1957 and steadily climbed, reflecting post-war economic expansion in the US. Significant milestones included the bull market of the 1990s and the early 2000s dot-com bubble, which pushed the index to record highs before the bubble burst. In 2007, the index reached a peak of 1,576, fuelled by strong corporate earnings and speculative investment activity, before the 2008 financial crisis caused a sharp 57% drop to 666 by March 2009.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors.

 

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European Currencies Correct in Anticipation of a Pre-Holiday Rally

Despite the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and the upcoming inauguration of Donald Trump, who has frequently discussed the possibility of new trade tariffs, EUR/USD and GBP/USD managed to find medium-term support last week. Both pairs are now attempting to recover toward recent highs.

GBP/USD

Last week, GBP/USD broke below the November low at 1.2480. However, the pair quickly rebounded above 1.2500, forming a bullish engulfing reversal pattern.

According to technical analysis, GBP/USD has the potential to rise further toward 1.2660–1.2730 if it can sustain levels above 1.2600. On the downside, a retest of 1.2470 could lead to a downward breakout, potentially driving the pair toward 1.2300–1.2400.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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AMD Stock Price Rebounds from Yearly Low. 2025 Forecast

As the chart indicates, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) reached its yearly low on 20th December, dropping below $120.

However, on Monday, AMD emerged as one of the top-performing stocks in the market. The trading session opened with a bullish gap, and by the close, the stock had gained approximately 4.5% compared to Friday's close. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) rose by 0.7% on the same day.

According to technical analysis of the AMD stock chart, in 2024, the price formed a descending price channel (highlighted in red), characterised by the following:

• Bears broke below three trendlines, forming a structure reminiscent of Gann fans.
• There is a possibility that the fourth (lowest) trendline could serve as a strong support level, preventing the price from reaching the bottom of the channel. The sharp upward reversal from the $120 level may be considered a sign supporting this scenario.

Price action suggests increasing demand, and analysts (as outlined below) believe buyers may play a more active role in 2025.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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NZD/USD Stabilises Ahead of the Holidays

Forex trading is slowing down as the holidays approach, offering a pause after significant movements driven by various news events, including central bank decisions.

Notably, NZD/USD reached its lowest level since October 2022 at the end of last week.

The decline in NZD/USD has been influenced by two main factors:

1. The dollar gained momentum following the Federal Reserve's decision to lower the interest rate by 0.25% and its forward guidance for 2025.

2. According to Reuters:
→ New Zealand's economy contracted much more sharply than expected in the second and third quarters.
→ Market participants anticipate that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may lower interest rates by 0.5% in February.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Trading CFDs on Stocks vs ETFs: Differences and Advantages

Many traders wonder whether it’s worth trading ETFs vs stocks. The truth is that they both offer distinct advantages depending on your strategy. Whether you're drawn to the diversification of ETFs or the high volatility of individual stocks, understanding their differences is key. This article breaks down the difference between stocks and ETFs and the advantages of each.

What Are ETFs vs Stocks?

Although you are well aware of what stocks and ETFs are, let us give a quick overview. ETFs, or exchange-traded funds, are collections of assets like stocks, bonds, or commodities bundled into a single security. Instead of buying individual assets, traders gain exposure to an entire market segment or strategy by trading ETFs. For example, SPY tracks the S&P 500, providing access to 500 major companies in one trade. ETFs are traded on exchanges like stocks, with prices fluctuating throughout the day based on supply and demand.

Stocks, by contrast, signify direct ownership in a particular company. When trading stocks, you’re focusing on the performance of that single entity, whether it’s a household name like Tesla (TSLA) or an emerging small-cap company. In comparing stocks vs an ETF, stocks are often more volatile than ETFs, creating opportunities for traders to capture sharp price movements.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors.

 

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The Magnificent Seven Stocks: A Stellar 2024 and an Uncertain 2025

The Magnificent Seven is a term used to describe the seven largest technology companies that dominate the global economy through their scale, innovation, and high market capitaliыation.

These companies are often key drivers of the US stock market, and in 2024 (as in 2023), they confirmed their leadership, with most outperforming the broader market indices. Below are approximate performance estimates for the end of 2024:

→ S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen): +26%
→ Apple (AAPL): +38%
→ Microsoft (MSFT): +18%
→ Amazon (AMZN): +52%
→ Alphabet (GOOGL): +42%
→ Meta Platforms (META): +43%
→ Tesla (TSLA): +87%
→ Nvidia (NVDA): +189%

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Comparison of Money Market vs Capital Market

Navigating the financial world requires a clear understanding of its various facets, especially when comparing the money market vs the capital market. These two pivotal markets serve distinct roles in the economy, catering to different investment horizons and risk profiles. This article aims to demystify these markets, providing insights into their characteristics, differences, and the importance they hold for traders and investors alike.

What Is the Money Market?

The money market involves trading short-term financial instruments. It’s characterised by high liquidity and low risk, making it a popular choice when it comes to managing short-term financial needs and cash reserves.

Instruments traded here include Treasury bills (T-bills), which are government-issued securities with maturities of less than one year. Commercial paper, another common instrument, is an unsecured, short-term debt issued by corporations to finance their immediate operational needs. Additionally, certificates of deposit (CDs) issued by banks offer fixed interest rates for short-term deposits.

These instruments collectively may provide a safe haven when investors seek stability and quick access to their funds, with minimal exposure to price fluctuations.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors.

 

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Apple (AAPL) Stock Ends the Year Near Record Highs

In 2024, Apple Inc. (AAPL) shares surged by approximately 35%, fueled by the introduction of Apple Intelligence, a groundbreaking AI technology integrated into the company's ecosystem. This feature, designed for iPhones and other Apple products, enhances both productivity and user experience.

Following the June launch of Apple Intelligence, AAPL stock price saw a sharp rise (indicated by the arrow), marking the beginning of a steady upward trend within a channel (highlighted in blue) that remains intact.

In early August, a sell-off in Japan's stock market and fears of a global recession defined the channel's lower boundary.

The stock subsequently rebounded, with prices fluctuating around the channel's central line (bolded) throughout autumn. This balance signified equilibrium between buyers and sellers.

As 2024 comes to a close, AAPL shares exhibit a strong upward momentum, resembling a Santa Claus rally. A new, steeper upward channel (depicted in purple) has emerged on the chart.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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USD/JPY Analysis: Pair Reaches 5-Month High

The Japanese yen remains under pressure, trading near a five-month low against the US dollar. This trend is primarily driven by differences in monetary policy approaches.

On one side, the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance, signalling a gradual slowing of monetary easing in 2025.

On the other, the Bank of Japan continues its cautious approach to policy tightening, as confirmed by a Reuters report published today. Although Japan’s Finance Minister issued warnings this week about potential market interventions, these statements have had little immediate impact.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Analytical Predictions on UK Interest Rates in 2025–2026

The future of UK interest rates is a pivotal topic for traders, investors, and policymakers alike. With inflation easing but economic uncertainties lingering, the Bank of England faces critical decisions that will shape the financial landscape through 2029. This article explores current interest rates in the UK in 2024, expert forecasts for the coming years, and key factors influencing rate movements, offering valuable insights into what lies ahead for the UK economy and financial markets.

UK Interest Rate Environment

The UK's interest rate landscape has undergone significant transformations over the past few years. From the end of 2021 to the middle of 2023, the Bank of England (BoE) raised interest rates from the historic low of 0.1% to 5.25%—the highest in UK interest rates history since 2008. The decision to elevate interest rates from near-zero levels was primarily driven by the need to counteract rising inflation, which has emerged as a considerable threat to the UK's economic stability.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Nikkei 225 Struggles to Hold Above the Psychological Level

The Nikkei 225 (Japan 225 on FXOpen) has risen nearly 20% in 2024, marking its best performance since 1989, according to Trading Economics. This impressive gain is especially noteworthy considering the market plunge in early August, triggered partly by the Bank of Japan’s historic interest rate hike.

According to today's chart of the Japanese stock market index Nikkei 225 (Japan 225 on FXOpen):

→ Late last week (marked with an arrow), the index surpassed the psychological 40,000 level, reaching a 5-month high.
→ However, as this week began, the Nikkei 225 dropped below 40,000, failing to sustain its position above this key level.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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The Dollar Index Rises by 6.7% in 2024

Throughout 2024, the US dollar traded with mixed dynamics but showed consistent strengthening over the past three months.

According to WSJ and Reuters, the following factors contributed to this growth:
→ Reports of a strong US economy and expectations that further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will be limited.
→ Projections of policies under President-elect Donald Trump, which are anticipated to focus on tax reductions, increased tariffs, and stricter immigration controls.

During the low-volatility holiday trading period, the US Dollar Index—a tool measuring the dollar's strength against a basket of major currencies—hovered around a two-year high, where it may close a strong year.

Meanwhile, the euro remains near two-year lows, but bulls hold onto hope.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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What Is the January Effect on Stock Markets and What Traders Do?

The January effect has long fascinated traders, highlighting a seasonal pattern where stock prices, especially smaller ones, tend to rise at the start of the year. But what drives this phenomenon, and how do traders respond? This article dives into the factors behind the January effect, its historical performance, and its relevance in today’s markets.

What Is the January Effect?

The January effect is a term used to describe a seasonal pattern where stock prices, particularly those of smaller companies, tend to rise during January. This phenomenon was first identified in the mid-20th century by Sidney B. Wachtel and has been widely discussed by traders and analysts ever since as one of the best months to buy stocks.

The effect is most noticeable in small-cap stocks, as these tend to show stronger gains compared to larger, more established companies. Historically, this uptick in January has been observed across various stock markets, though its consistency has diminished in recent years.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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EUR/USD Started 2025 at Its Lowest Point in 25 Months

According to the EUR/USD chart, on 2nd January, the first trading day of the year, the EUR/USD pair fell below the psychological level of 1.025, the lowest mark since November 2022.

There are few news events, and the EUR/USD rate decline may be attributed to:
→ The holiday period still affecting financial markets, reducing liquidity and creating vulnerabilities for volatility spikes;
→ Market participants potentially rebalancing their portfolios for the new calendar year;
→ Reassessing the strength of the dollar amid uncertainty about the actual steps of President-elect Trump, whose inauguration is scheduled for this month.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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EUR/USD Hits Last Year’s Lows, GBP/USD Drops Below 1.2400

This week, European and commodity currencies suffer. Euro sellers broke last year’s low of 1.0330 and stayed below 1.0300, the GBP/USD pair dropped below 1.2400, and USD/CAD buyers tested the 1.4400 level.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD buyers failed to capitalise on the potential bullish correction signalled by the "Inverted Hammer" pattern. After a false breakout above 1.0450, the price sharply declined below the 2024 low at 1.0330. Yesterday, EUR/USD nearly reached the critical support level at 1.0220 but rebounded by the evening to 1.0270.

In the upcoming trading sessions, the pair might continue its correction toward recent highs at 1.0300–1.0330. If yesterday’s low at 1.0225 is breached, further downward movement to the 1.0100–1.0170 range might happen.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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How Can You Implement the Opening Range Breakout Strategy Into Trading?

The Opening Range Breakout (ORB) strategy is a popular approach among traders looking to take advantage of market volatility and potential breakouts during the initial minutes after the market opens. This article explores the ORB strategy in detail, including its application in stocks and forex, entry techniques, and how to optimise its use.

Overview of the Opening Range Breakout Trading Strategy

The ORB, or the Opening Range Breakout is a time-tested trading strategy that centres around identifying the price range established in the initial minutes of a market session. Originally devised in the 1960s by renowned trader Arthur Merrill, this strategy has retained its relevance across decades. Modern traders have adapted ORB to fit today’s fast-paced trading environments, using it to detect potential breakout opportunities early in the session.

The strategy typically focuses on the price range formed within the first 5, 15, or 30 minutes after the market opens. Traders mark the highest and lowest points reached during this period as key levels. While some rely solely on this range, others also incorporate the prior day’s closing price for additional context.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Market Analysis: EUR/USD Tumbles, USD/JPY Eyes More Gains

EUR/USD declined from the 1.0450 resistance and traded below 1.0300. USD/JPY is rising and might gain pace above the 158.00 resistance.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

• The Euro started a fresh decline below the 1.0350 support zone.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.0320 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/JPY climbed higher above the 156.50 and 157.30 levels.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 157.75 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to clear the 1.0450 resistance zone. The Euro started a fresh decline and traded below the 1.0350 support zone against the US Dollar.

The pair declined below 1.0300 and tested the 1.0225 zone. A low was formed near 1.0224 and the pair recently attempted a recovery wave. There was a minor recovery wave above the 1.0280 level. The pair climbed above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0458 swing high to the 1.0224 low.

The pair is now trading above 1.0285 and the 50-hour simple moving average. On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near the 1.0320 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.0320.

The next key resistance is at 1.0340. The main resistance is near the 1.0365 level or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0458 swing high to the 1.0224 low.

A clear move above the 1.0365 level could send the pair toward the 1.0460 resistance. An upside break above 1.0460 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.0500.

If not, the pair might resume its decline. The first major support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.0280. The next key support is at 1.0225. If there is a downside break below 1.0225, the pair could drop toward 1.0200. The next support is near 1.0150, below which the pair could start a major decline.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Nvidia Stock (NVDA): A Strong Start to 2025

As shown by Nvidia's (NVDA) chart:
→ In 2024, the stock price rose by approximately 180%—one of the best performances among S&P 500 constituents. Notably, NVDA contributed the largest share—around $1.23 trillion—to the growth of the US stock market capitalisation.

→ 2025 began on an optimistic note: on 3rd January, the candle opened with a bullish gap, and the price climbed confidently during the trading session, closing near the highs. This signals strong demand after the holiday period.

Today, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is scheduled to speak at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES). Insights from his speech could potentially provide an additional bullish catalyst.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Brent Crude Oil Hits 2.5-Month High in Early 2025

The XBR/USD chart shows a strong rally in Brent crude oil prices on January 2–3, breaking above $76.20 for the first time since mid-October.

According to Reuters, this surge was driven by:

Economic stimulus measures in China, including wage increases for public servants and a significant boost in funding through treasury bonds.
Forecasts of a colder winter in the US and Europe, potentially increasing demand for oil products.

According to technical analysis of the XBR/USD chart, the price broke out of a consolidation pattern (highlighted in blue) that had confined it in late 2024.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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How Can You Trade Energy Commodities?

Energy trading connects global markets to the vital resources that power economies—oil and natural gas. These commodities aren’t just essential for industries and homes; they’re also dynamic assets for traders, influenced by geopolitics, supply, and demand.

Whether you’re exploring benchmarks like Brent Crude and WTI or understanding natural gas markets, this article unpacks the essentials of energy commodities and how to trade them.

What Is Energy Trading?

Energy trading involves buying and selling energy resources that power industries and households worldwide. These commodities are essential for modern life and are traded in global markets both as physical products and financial instruments.

Energy commodities include resources like oil, natural gas, gasoline, coal, ethanol, uranium, and more. In this article, we’ll focus on the two that traders interact with the most: oil and natural gas.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.