Daily Market Analysis by FxGrow

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 15th Jan, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

AUDCAD - one week of correction and return to uptrend

Bulls strikes back on AUDCAD. New year started with falls after almost vertical upward movement which lasted in November and December last year. After two months of upward movement without any correction supply expected deeper correction. I assumed that should make rebound was 0.9740 where support coincides with Fibonacci 50%.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 15th Jan, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

AUD/USD deepens 6-year lows

Australian to US dollar fell during Friday’s trading below wide consolidation 0.7383-0.6900 drawn from the middle of the last year. As a result, long-term, more than 6-ytear lows on the Aussie has been deepened to 0.6862. If the price closes below that level, then traders will have an opportunity to look for supply signals.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 18th Jan, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

CHFPLN - breakout the upper limit of consolidation after S&P downgrade

On Friday rating agency Standard & Poor’s cut the Poland's rating and warned of a further cut. S&P in note pointed at new government's actions without reference to the Poland's economy. Despite that other agencies does not opt to identical moves polish zloty weakened.

Currency pair CHFPLN is very popular because a thousands of Poles have debt in CHF. At chart we see side trend since February 2015. CHFPLN moved between levels 3.8000 - 4.0600 by the last Friday when demand broke above 4.0600 level. Currently the return movement should occur and price should decline to 4.0600. If price rebound from that level will be a new uptrend impuls. However if supply will be stronger and price will return below 4.0600 Friday's breakout will be a false and price will moves toward the lower limit of the channel.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 19th Jan, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

USDJPY an opportunity for rebound - double bottom pattern at support

After Friday's selloff current week started with a rebound at USDJPY. Area of 116.50 was defended by demand because further declines (and especially support breakout at 116.00) will worsen technical situation on the chart. Changes in long-term trend to a downtrend will become a fact. Currently upward movement should reach 118.30 - 118.80. This area is important for further moves direction. If demand breaks it and upward movement continues next target will be at 120.60.

Time-frame H4

I would like to remind previous analysis USDJPY from January 7, which was very profitable. I wrote: "It is likely that weak correction may appear and 118.70 will be tested. If there will be a rebound at 118.70 level price will fall to 116.00".

Time-frame M30

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 19th Jan, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

EURGBP - fast correction and return to uptrend

Since almost a year demand was unable to break above 0.7480. From the other side, supply likewise wasn't able to broke below support at 0.6990. As a result on January 8 there was a successful breakout of consolidation upper limit and new dynamic upward impulse began.

After shallow ABC correction (where C = A * 61,8%), price today reached highest level since a year. Upward movement should be continued for at least another 160 pips to 0.7760 level. Correction should occur there and its strength will show current condition of the bears.

Time-frame M30

Time-frame D1

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 20th Jan, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

EURUSD - break above bearish regression channel
Since December 4th EURUSD moves in downward channel. First attempt of breaking above it, occurred on January 15th but finished with false breakout and returned into the channel. Currently there is a second attempt and price reached 1.0975 level. If withdrawal doesn't occur, then upward move will reach at least the nearest resistance at 1.1050.

Next resistances are at levels: 1.1120, 1.1320, 1.1480. It has to be note that on Thursday EBC will summarize its recent monetary policy actions. During last meeting there was a huge 400 pips EURUSD move despite of there wasn't any surprising data. For this reason you must have increased attention with open positions at EURUSD.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 20th Jan, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

GBPJPY - is it a good time for a rebound?

GBPJPY falls second month in a row without any bigger correction. Firstly, supply broke below support at 175.50 and then 168.00. It took place without any attempt of a rebound. Today demand reactin occurred in area 163.00 - 163.70 and it was at the time when macroeconomic data were published. Data were better than forecast (UK unemployment falls to decade low).

As you can see at weekly chart it is likely that trend reversal is in progress. However 2 months without correction should cause at least a shallow rebound. Nearest resistances: 168.00, 175.50, 189.00. Nearest support: 163.00 -163,70 area.

Time-frame D1

Time-frame W1

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 21st Jan, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

AUDNZD - upward movement should be continued

For 2 months AUDNZD moved in downtrend from 1.1080 level in November 2015 to 1.0535 level in January 7. Since then rebound occured, which is characterized by higher highs and higher lows (this is a basic method to identify trends). Currently price reached 1.0700 and it is likely that rebound will occur and demand will try another test of the latest resistance at 1.0830. Next resistances are located at: 1.0930, 1.1020, 1.1080. Nearest supports: 1.0700, 1.0630, 1.0550.

Wider view, time-frame W1

For the last two years range of movement decreased and price moved between: 1.0050 - 1.1300. However in a long term since 2011 AUDNZD moved in a downtrend. Lowest level was achieved in April 2015 and it wasn't deepened since that moment. It has to be noted that head and shoulder pattern is forming. To complete the pattern it is necessary to permanently break above 1.1300 level - this will be a signal for a trend reversal.

Time-frame H4

Time-frame W1

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 21st Jan, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

EURUSD - declines after ECB press conference

Yesterday demand tried to break above bearish regression channel, but sentiment changes today after press conference of ECB President Mario Draghi. According to forcast ECB maintained interest rates unchanged, however during press conference, Draghi's speach caused a weakening of the euro. Mario Draghi noted that inflation is weaker than expected and suggested action taken by the ECB during the March meeting.
It caused that EURUSD fell 100 pips. However return movement occured very fast and currently price is above support at 1.0810. If support is break below next target for falls will be at 1.0730. Alternatively if demand is strong enough key level for the bulls will be at 1.0950 which is an upper limit of downward channel. Next target for bulls is at 1.1050.

Time-frame H4

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 22nd Jan, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

OIL BRENT - 10% gaings from the bottom - second day of rebound

There is dynamic rebound at OIL. Since 24 hours OIL BRENT gained more than 10% value, moving from 27.30 to 31.00. Rebounds at OIL were usually dynamic so while the key levels weren't broken current movement should be seen as a correction. Key resistances are at levels: 36.00 (former support that stopped declines in December) and 42.50. More important is 42.50 level because supply couldn't break it for 5 months in 2015.

Since the beginning of January 2016 OIL fell 25% without any bigger correction. Currently it is likely that upward movement will reach at least to Fibonacci 38,2% (31.60 level) or Fibonacci 50% (33.00 level) or even to 61.8% (area 34.60). Last pointed level is strengtened by resistance. Nearest resistances: 31.00, 32.20, 34.60, 36.00. Nearest supports: 29.30, 27.30.

Time-frame H1

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 22nd Jan, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

GBPUSD - dynamic rebound after price reached 6-years low

In Monday's analysis (after upward movement in the morning) I pointed two scenarios: successful rebound or deepened falls: "it is likely that today will be first upward session since a week" and "however if demand fail and declines continue next support will be at 1.4000".

Morning's gains were lost by the end of the day and as a result at chart you can see next red candle with long upper shadow. As expected, price moved in the direction of 1.4000, but rebound on Thursday was 80 pips higher during ECB press conference. That level was 6 years low and support at that level can be found at weekly or monthly time-frame. Today price returned above 1.4250 and nearest target for upward movement is 1.4400. That level is strengthened by Fibonacci 38,2%. After its breakout next resistance is at 1.4600 strengthened by Fibonacci 61,8%. Alternatively if bearish sentiment is back nearest supports will be located at: 1.4250, 1.4080-1.4000.

Time-frame H1

Time-frame monthly

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 25th Jan, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

USDJPY - dynamic rebound from support after BoJ speech

Last Wednesday there was another test of 116.40 level, but supply wasn't stopped and tried attack at 116.00. As a result USDJPY reached to a year's low of price. Since December to last week's Thursday Japan's yen strengthened, during this time price fell from 123.56 to 116.00. At pointed level dynamic rebound occurred and during three upward sessions led price to Fibonacci 38,2% of previous downward movement. The immediate cause of that rebound (which means weakened yen), were information from Bank of Japan. Governor of BoJ Haruhiko Kuroda said: "We won't hesitate adjusting policy, including easing policy, if necessary to achieve our 2 percent price target". Nearest BoJ meeting will be at current week. Market's reaction was dynamic, Japanese stock market has gained and yen fell down.

At chart USDJPY reached to first important resistance at 118.80 i rebound occurred. If demand break above that resistance next targets will be at: 120.60, 121.40, 123.50. However if declines continue nearest supports will be at levels: 118.10, 117.60, 116.50.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 25th Jan, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

EURCAD - dynamic rebound from the support area

After January 20th when EURCAD reached 1.6100 (5 years high), dynamic rebound occurred. Falls lasted 3 days and finished at 1.5245 level which is 38,2% Fibonacci level of earlier uptrend movement. That area was additionally strengthened by the support.
Currently there is a rebound which should reach at least 1.5570 area (nearest strong resistance). Indicated resistance is important for further direction of price movement.

If demand breaks it correction may be finished and price will move to a new high. However there is an alternative scenario, when bears will go back and last week’s low will be deepened, entire downward movement will form ABC simple correction. Target for falls could be calculated by equation A=C. Nearest supports: 1.5250, 1.5100, 1.4980. Nearest resistances: 1.5430, 1.5570, 1.5680.

Time-frame H1

Time-frame H4

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 26th Jan, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

EURUSD - movement toward 1.0930

Last week EURUSD falls to area 1.0800 during press conference (after EBC meeting). Despite the attempt to deepen this decline, supply wasn't able to take control. Since the beginning of current week EURUSD moved upward.

Nearest target for demand is 1.0930 level which is an upper limit of downward channel in which price moved for two months. Important event for EURUSD will be tomorrow. During the day we will get data from the US real estate market and in the evening decision and statement after FOMC meeting. In this time is more than sure that will be a high volatility at EURUSD. Nearest support is at 1.0840. Resistances are located at: 1.0870, 1.0930, 1.0970.

Time-frame H4

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 26th Jan, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

EURJPY - double bottom pattern, but demand doesn't look very strong

For almost 3 weeks EURJPY moved in a downward channel. All this time the movement was near to key support. On last Thursday after failure attack at 126.20 level, you can see characteristic double bottom pattern (visible at time-frame D1). Since that moment all candles are green, but reaction of demand isn't as strong as you could expected.

Yesterday there was first attempt of breaking above upper limit of downward channel and that movement continues today. If price doesn't rebound, target for upward movement will be at 129.00 and after it's breakout stronger resistance is located at 129.80. Alternatively if bearish sentiment comes back nearest supports will be at: 127.90, 127.50, 127.10, 126.80.

Time-frame H4

Time-frame D1

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 27th Jan, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

AUDCAD - 0.9740 level will finish the correction?

Since January after two months of uptrend, there is a correction on AUDCAD. Correction reached Fibonacci 38,2% of the last upward movement. Price dynamically rebounded but falls were back quickly and since January 20 there is another downward impulse. It is likely that AUDCAD will form ABC simple correction. Target for falls when A=C is 0.9740.

The indicated level is a combination of 3 factors:
1) strong support from 2015,
2) mentioned equation A=C,
3) Fibonacci 50% retracement of last upward movement.

Alternatively break above level 1.0080 will be a signal that current correction may be finished. Nearest supports: 0.9830, 0.9740. Nearest resistances: 1.0080, 1.0160.

Time-frame H4:

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 27th Jan, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

NZDUSD - lack of certainty for further movement direction

Since half of the year NZDUSD has moved in consolidation between 0.6860 - 0.6250. In mid-January supply tested support at region 0.6400, which so far has been defended.

Direction of further price movement currently remains an open question. At time-frame H1 you can see triangle pattern, when it will be broken the direction of movement will be set. If supply breaks below support 0.6400 price will fall to 0.6250. Permanent break above 0.6500 level allows upward movement to nearest resistances: 0.6690, 0.6860.

Time-frame H1

Time-frame D1

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 28th Jan, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

GBPAUD - new low, falls targeting 1.9900

After rebound lasting almost entire January, yesterday supply finally won and deepened latest low. If today's macroeconomic data from UK doesn't make a sentiment reversal declines will continue. It should be noted that, since August price moves in bearish regression channel and tested the upper band of the channel (which was at mid-January) GBPAUD move towards its lower limit. Important support which should make rebound is at 1.9900 level. Nearest resistance is located at: 2.0180.

Time-frame H4

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 28th Jan, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

EURUSD - trend continuation after FOMC

After return above 1.0800 at the beginning of the week, upward movement continues. Main doubt in this week was Thursday's FOMC decision on interest rates and more specifically the meeting protocol. In the announcement there were a dovish elements, especially indication that interest rates should be lowered because of the situation on Wall Street, and the risk of inflation associated with oil depreciation and dollar increases. Finally without sudden movements EURUSD continued upward impulse initiated on Monday.

Region 1.0930, which was tested today is the upper limit of downward channel in which EURUSD moved since December 4. Successful break above 1.0930 should move price to 1.1050, which is 3-months high. Alternatively if there will be a rebound nearest supports are located at: 1.0870, 1.0800.

Time-frame H4

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 29th Jan, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

USDJPY - sharply up, due to Bank of Japan interest rates cut

Previous analysis in which I indicated possibility of further BoJ policy easing and USDJPY gains, was very profitable. I wrote: "USDJPY reached to first important resistance at 118.80 and rebound occurred. If demand breaks above that resistance next targets will be at: 120.60, 121.40, 123.50". So it happened after BoJ decided to adopt negative interest rates. During 10 minutes period, USDJPY moved sharply to 121.40 level.

Currently upward movement should continue. You have to note that at the chart there is a reversal head and shoulders pattern - it possible target can be found near 121.75. However earlier demand will have to break above resistance at 121.47. After that next important resistance is at 122.51. If correction occurs earlier, falls will protect support at 120.50.

Time-frame H4

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.