Daily Market Analysis by CapitalStreetFX

[CSFX.Support]

USDCAD trade idea by Capital Street FX

Weak Canadian GDP Data Boosts USDCAD To Five-Week Peak

The U.S. dollar soared strongly to the level not seen since mid-November against its Canadian peer on Friday in the wake of unexpectedly fragile Canadian economic growth data, not to mention expectation for an aggressive rate-hike path next year.

The pair USDCAD reached over one-month high at 1.35563 after the release of Canadian gross domestic product that showed the country’s economic contracted by 0.3% in October, lower than expectations for a 0.1% expansion.

The decline in October was partly due to a sharp drop in manufacturing output which shrank 2.0%. The sector, which has marked the largest monthly decrease since December 2013, was affected by a lower volume of manufactured goods exports.

Meanwhile, the greenback’s bull run has been supported by Federal Reserve’s remarks that the central bank may raise interest rates three times in 2017.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 1.35450, Take profit at 1.35700, Stop loss at 1.35300

 

[CSFX.Support]

Daily Report on December 27, 2016 by Capital Street FX

Daily Report on December 27, 2016



Japanese and Chinese markets draw investor attention on Tuesday as financial markets in Australia, New Zealand and Hong Kong remained shut for Christmas. Japan’s equities were bolstered by a weakened Yen. Tokyo’s Topix index advanced 0.2% while the Nikkei 225 Stock Average gained 2.2 percent. Meanwhile, the Yen snapped a four-day advance versus the U.S. dollar after data released earlier today showed the country’s core consumer prices came in worse-than-expected.

The Japanese Statistics Bureau on Tuesday reported that core consumer prices in Tokyo, a leading indicator of nationwide price movement, fell 0.6 percent in December from a year earlier. This is the fastest pace of decline in nearly four years, outlining the challenges policy-makers have been struggling to boost the nation’s inflation.

The national core consumer price index, which includes oil products but excludes volatile fresh food prices, shed 0.4 percent in November from a year earlier, marking the ninth straight month of annual declines. The headline figure suggests a weak momentum of the country’s prices to move toward the central bank's ambitious 2 percent target. However, economists expected a recent rebound in oil costs and yen declines will help to accelerate inflation next year.

Markets in the U.S. and most of Europe will resume trading after a holiday Monday.

Oil prices were little changed on Tuesday with markets waiting for the first output cut deal agreed between OPEC and non-OPEC members in 15 years is scheduled to kick in on January 1st, 2017. London Brent crude for February delivery was trading at $55.15 a barrel by 05:00 GMT while NYMEX crude for the same contract ticked down to trade at $53.12 a barrel. Oil markets were closed on Monday in observation of Christmas holiday.

Elsewhere, the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday announced profits at industrial firms accelerated in November. Industrial profits rose 14.5 percent last month from a year earlier to 774.6 billion yuan ($111 billion), with gains led by advances in coal and metal prices. The index soared 9.8 percent in the previous month. As a result, earnings in the first 11 months jumped 9.4 percent to 6.03 trillion yuan.



Technicals

USDCAD



Fig: USDCAD H4 Technical Chart

USDCAD is struggling near over-one-month high at 1.35563. The pair has retreated a little bit after soaring to the 1.35400 resistance but is likely to edge higher with support from two MAs moving below the price action. The U.S. dollar may reach the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.35740.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 1.35400, Take profit at 1.35700, Stop loss at 1.35250



EURCHF



Fig: EURCHF H4 Technical Chart

EURCHF remained steady on an uptrend but at the same could not break out of the resistance at around 1.07400. The parabolic sar has changed its direction to move under the price action. Meanwhile, the short-term MA20 has crossed over the long-term MA50 from below, suggesting further advanced.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 1.07400, Take profit at 1.07560, Stop loss at 1.07200



SILVER



Fig: SILVER H4 Technical Chart

Silver prices rebounded from the support at 15.680 and are struggling with the short-term MA 20 at around 15.872. The parabolic sar has turned below the price action, which suggests a reversal into an uptrend. As can be observed from the ADX chart, the +DI line has penetrated the –DI line from below while the ADX index is pointing downwards, indicating a strengthening bullish force.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 15.900, Take profit at 16.150, Stop loss at 15.800



EURO50



Fig: EURO 50 Index H4 Technical Chart

The European stock benchmark has been stuck in a thin range for the last three days. The short-term 20-period moving average has kept the index from falling further but the price has not gather enough bullish momentum to break out of the side-way state and edge higher. The ADX index has fallen below 20, indicating no clear trend in market. In the event of an uptrend, Euro 50 index may reach the 3300.00 threshold.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 3280.00, Take profit at 3300.00, Stop loss at 3270.00

 

[CSFX.Support]

Copper Trade Idea by Capital Street FX

Copper Pares Losses on Soaring Chinese Industrial Profits

Copper opened its first trading session following Christmas holiday with a gap down. The metal fell more than 1% compared to the last close in early Asian trading hours, extending losses on the London Metal Exchange in the previous session amid concerns about demand growth in China.

According to market sources on Friday, President Xi Jinping told a meeting of the Communist Party’s financial and economic leading group that China doesn’t need to meet the 6.5 percent economic growth objective if doing so creates too much risk. Adding to copper’s woes, Chinese government continues a crackdown on soaring house prices and pollution.

However, after falling in early hours in Shanghai, copper pared its losses after the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday announced profits at industrial firms accelerated in November. Industrial profits in China rose 14.5 percent last month from a year earlier to 774.6 billion Yuan ($111 billion), with gains led by advances in coal and metal prices.

LME market will keep closing on Tuesday for Christmas.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 2.4768, Take profit at 2.5000, Stop loss at 2.4600

 

[CSFX.Support]

Oil Trade Idea by Capital Street FX

Thin Volume in First Day of Post-Holiday Trade Sends Oil Near $54

U.S. crude oil futures jumped on Tuesday, prolonging its year-end rally amidst expectations of tighter market once the deal between OPEC and non-OPEC producers takes effect from Sunday.

Crude prices soared more than 1.7% to nearly $54 per barrel and are on track to attempt the year’s high of $54.51 high reached on December 12th. The strong surge came after remarks from the Energy Ministry of Venezuela stating that the country would cut 95,000 barrels-per-day of oil production since January 1st in fulfillment of a nearly 1.8 million bdp output-cut deal signed by the OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers.

The up move was magnified by low trading volume in the first post-Christmas trading session

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 53.90, Take profit at 54.50, Stop loss at 53.60

 

[CSFX.Support]

EUR/GBP signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 13:00 27/12/2016
Till GMT 21:00 27/12/2016

Buy at 0.85400
Take profit at 0.85800
Stop loss at 0.85200

 

[CSFX.Support]

Daily Report on December 28, 2016 by Capital Street FX

Daily Report on December 28, 2016



Asian stocks echoed gains in U.S. equities overnight, rising in thin trading on Wednesday. Australian and New Zealand markets reopened after being closed Monday and Tuesday for the Christmas holiday with the former’s S&P/ASX 200 Index up 1% while the latter’s S&P/NZX 50 Index was little changed. Although Asian shares were mixed, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced for the first time in seven days.

Yesterday, the S&P 500 Index extended its monthly advance, ticking 0.2 percent higher. Another U.S. equity benchmark, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose to its all-time high and the Dow Jones Industrial Average approached 20,000, supported by the release of upbeat U.S. economic data.

According to a monthly survey released by the Conference Board on Tuesday, consumer optimism about the U.S. economy increased to the highest level since August 2001. The Consumer Confidence Index jumped to 113.7 in December, comfortably beating analysts’ expectation calling for the headline figure to hit 109 for the month.

In a preliminary report on Wednesday, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry stated that Japanese industrial production rose 1.5% in November, compared with the previous month. Despite the fact that the reading missed forecast a 1.8% increase, the preliminary data was a sharply surge after flat-lining in October. On a yearly basis, industrial production rose 4.6%.

In a separate report on Wednesday, METI said Japanese retail sales showed their first monthly gain since February. Thanks to export volumes that rebounded sharply, the reading recorded an increase of 1.7% in November, following a 0.2% drop the previous month.



Technicals

NZDUSD



Fig: NZDUSD H4 Technical Chart

NZDUSD has been on a rise since it broke out of a consolidation in the last two trading days. The price action is facing the long-term MA50 at 0.69212 after the price action penetrated the short-term MA20 at 0.68930. Both RSI and ADX is soaring, suggesting a strong upward support.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 0.69300, Take profit at 0.69600, Stop loss at 0.69150



AUDNZD



Fig: AUDNZD H4 Technical Chart

AUDNZD has been under downward pressure created by the slopping downtrend line. The pair pulled back after hitting this resistance and has also breached the 1.04150 support. RSI rebounded from the central line, suggesting the return of the bearish force. The pair may slide further to test the next support at 1.03770.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 1.04000, Take profit at 1.03770, Stop loss at 1.04160



BRENT



Fig: BRENT H4 Technical Chart

Brent crude reversed higher following a fall that sent the price back to 56.00 support. Recent candles have short or no lower shadows at all, which indicates a weak bearish force. With support from two MAs hanging below the price action, the commodity may tick higher to reach the 57.00 handle.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 56.10, Take profit at 57.00, Stop loss at 55.70



SUGAR



Fig: Sugar H4 Technical Chart

Sugar pulled back after its bullish momentum was hit by two resistances at the same time. The first one is a dynamic resistance which is the 20-period moving average and the other is the 38.2% Fibonacci level. As can be seen from the Stochastic chart, the %K line has reversed lower and may cross over the %D line from above. The commodity price may fall lower to test 18.00 support.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 18.40, Take profit at 18.00, Stop loss at 18.60

 

[CSFX.Support]

EUR/CHF signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 06:00 28/12/2016
Till GMT 21:00 28/12/2016

Buy at 1.07600
Take profit at 1.07850
Stop loss at 1.07500

 

[CSFX.Support]

Silver Trade Idea by Capital Street FX

Strong Dollar Dispels Silver’s Bullish Strength in Early Trade

Silver pared all of its gains in early Asian trading hours to reverse lower in European session on Wednesday. The grey metal failed to surpass the 16.000 milestone as the dollar became stronger on the back of upbeat U.S. economic data.

According to a monthly survey released by the Conference Board on Tuesday, consumer optimism about the U.S. economy increased to the highest level since August 2001. The Consumer Confidence Index jumped to 113.7 in December, comfortably beating analysts’ expectation calling for the headline figure to hit 109 for the month.

The dollar index, which gauges the strength of the greenback versus a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.18% 103.23. A strengthening U.S. dollar tends to sap investor demand towards silver as the price of precious metal becomes more expensive for buyers holding using local currencies.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 15.830, Take profit at 15.680, Stop loss at 15.900

 

[CSFX.Support]

AUD/CAD signal by Capital Street FX

AUD/CAD signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 18:30 28/12/2016
Till GMT 21:00 29/12/2016

Sell at 0.97300
Take profit at 0.96900
Stop loss at 0.97500

 

[CSFX.Support]

Natural Gas Trade Idea By Capital Street FX

Cold Weather and Supply Decline Send Natural Gas to 2-year High

Natural gas futures dropped due to profit-taking on Thursday after having surged to the highest price in two years yesterday. The rally came amid expectations over a tightening market.

The January natural gas futures contract, which expired Wednesday, gained 4.5 percent to reach the highest since December 2014 at $3.990 per million British thermal units before settling at $3.930 per mBtu. The new front-month contract for February also soared sharply.

While latest weather forecasts showed a blast of cold air next month which will help boost demand, investors are expecting data from the Energy Information Administration due later today will indicate a big drawdown in supply last week. Economists anticipated natural gas storage in the U.S. to contract by about 220 billion cubic feet of gas for the week ended Dec. 23.

If confirmed, gas in storage would reach 3.375 trillion cubic feet, which would be more than 10 percent below last year’s level.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 3.850, Take profit at 3.950, Stop loss at 3.800

 

[CSFX.Support]

AUD/NZD signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 07:00 29/12/2016
Till GMT 21:00 29/12/2016

Sell at 1.03750
Take profit at 1.03400
Stop loss at 1.03900

 

[CSFX.Support]

Gold Trade Idea by Capital Street FX

Weak Dollar Pushes Gold To Levels Not Seen in Two Weeks

Gold futures soared more than 1% on Thursday, aiming to extending its advance for a fourth-straight trading day. The precious metal reached a two-week high as the U.S. dollar retreated after a downbeat economic data.

Gold futures for February delivery jumped 1.25% to trade at $1158.47 an ounce in light volume. This is the level not seen since December 14th. The dollar index dropped 0.55% to 102.66.

According to data released by the Commerce Department on Thursday, the U.S. trade deficit climbed 5.5% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual $65.3 billion. November’s reading was larger than the $62.5 billion gap forecast by economists. Particularly, exports increased 1.0% to $121.7 billion while imports advanced 1.2% compared to those of October.

As most gold is priced in dollars, a weaker greenback makes the precious metal less expensive for other currency holders, presumably raising demand.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 1158.00, Take profit at 1165.00, Stop loss at 1150.00

 

[CSFX.Support]

Natural Gas Trade Idea By Capital Street FX

Cold Weather and Supply Decline Send Natural Gas to 2-year High

Natural gas futures dropped due to profit-taking on Thursday after having surged to the highest price in two years yesterday. The rally came amid expectations over a tightening market.

The January natural gas futures contract, which expired Wednesday, gained 4.5 percent to reach the highest since December 2014 at $3.990 per million British thermal units before settling at $3.930 per mBtu. The new front-month contract for February also soared sharply.

While latest weather forecasts showed a blast of cold air next month which will help boost demand, investors are expecting data from the Energy Information Administration due later today will indicate a big drawdown in supply last week. Economists anticipated natural gas storage in the U.S. to contract by about 220 billion cubic feet of gas for the week ended Dec. 23.

If confirmed, gas in storage would reach 3.375 trillion cubic feet, which would be more than 10 percent below last year’s level.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 3.850, Take profit at 3.950, Stop loss at 3.800

 

[CSFX.Support]

USD/CHF signal by Capital Street FX

USD/CHF signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 07:00 30/12/2016
Till GMT 21:00 30/12/2016

Buy at 1.02000
Take profit at 1.02400
Stop loss at 1.01800

 

[CSFX.Support]

EUR/USD signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 08:30 30/12/2016
Till GMT 21:00 30/12/2016

Buy at 1.05200
Take profit at 1.05700
Stop loss at 1.05000

 

[CSFX.Support]

Daily Report on December 30, 2016 by Capital Street FX

Daily Report on December 30, 2016



Global stocks were set to close a tumultuous year with mixed notes on Friday. While Japanese equities and European Stoxx Europe 600 Index looked set to have their first annual decline in five years, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index is about to record its first annual gain since 2013. China was at risks of marking one of the worst performances with the Shanghai Composite Index on course for a yearly decline of 12 percent.

The Euro surged sharply in early Asia trading hours on Friday, jumping from around $1.0490 to trade above $1.0700 in a blink. This is its highest level in two weeks after being stuck in a range from $1.0370 to $1.0480. According to market analysts, the steep up move wasn’t likely driven by any specific fundamental news, but partly due to a broad dollar selling as traders closed their book ahead of the New Year holiday.

In the currency market, the greenback was broadly lower against its rivals. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of its major peers, dropped more than 0.6 percent to 102.03, paring its annual gain to 3.8 percent after reaching a 14-year high of 103.65 on Dec. 20.

Crude futures made fractional gains on Friday, following data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration that showed smaller-than-expected growth in U.S. crude inventories last week. EIA stated that U.S. crude stockpiles added 614,000 barrels in the week ended Dec. 23, far below the 4.2-million barrels increase reported by the industry group American Petroleum Institute. However, the figure still contrasted with a 1.2-million barrel contraction forecast by analysts.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in February traded at $54.00 a barrel, up 0.43%, in the Globex electronic session. Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange ticked 0.37% higher to $57.06 a barrel. Oil trading remained tepid ahead of the New Year holiday. Global oil markets will be closed Monday.



Technicals

EURGBP



Fig: EURGBP H4 Technical Chart

EURGBP has been riding an uptrend. The pair spiked to as high as 0.86686 – the highest level since November 15th, before paring its gains and falling back to the support at 0.85800. Buyers are still dominating on the market but it seems hard for the pair to reach today’s high or set another record settlement. Therefore, it much more likely for set a target at 0.86300 in the event of continual up moves.

Trade suggestion

Buy Limit at 0.85800, Take profit at 0.86300, Stop loss at 0.85500



USDZAR



Fig: USDZAR H4 Technical Chart

USDZAR has been under downward pressure created by the short-term MA20 which forced the pair to reversed lower after hitting this dynamic resistance at 13.79900. RSI has also reversed lower, indicating the emergence of bearish force.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 13.66000, Take profit at 13.55000, Stop loss at 13.71000



BRENT



Fig: Brent H1 Technical Chart

Brent crude has been trapped in a trading range between the resistance at 57.20 and the support at 56.60. The price action has twisted with a couple of short-term and long-term MAs. The commodity may fall lower given the fact that RSI has fallen below the central line.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 56.90, Take profit at 56.60, Stop loss at 57.00



COFFEE



Fig: Coffee H1 Technical Chart

Coffee pulled back from the support at 61.8% Fibonacci level after failing to break out of the long-term 50-hour moving average. The commodity price now faces the dynamic resistance again and is expected to cross over this stance to surge higher, as RSI index indicates an overwhelming bullish force in the market.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 137.00, Take profit at 138.80, Stop loss at 136.00

 

[CSFX.Support]

GBP/JPY signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 16:00 30/12/2016
Till GMT 21:00 30/12/2016

Sell at 144.100
Take profit at 143.500
Stop loss at 144.400

 

[CSFX.Support]

Daily Report on January 03, 2017 by Capital Street FX

Daily Report on January 03, 2017



Asian shares started the new year with a positive note on Tuesday, buoyed by confidence stemming from European equities which surged to the highest in a year on Monday. All of Asia's major markets along with Britain and Switzerland in Europe and the U.S. and Canada closed for the New Year holiday yesterday, leaving trade in other parts of the euro zone thin and volatile. Germany's DAX gained 0.9 percent to its highest in nearly 17 months while France's CAC soared 0.5 percent to a 13-month peak.

Solid factory growth in China and Europe gave the global manufacturing sector a fresh boost at the start of 2017. Data from a private business survey showed China's factory activity rose more than expected last month. Thanks to accelerating demand and soaring output, the Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index (PMI) picked up in December, rising to 51.9, from 50.9 in the previous month. The reading hit the strongest level since January 2013.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan jumped rose 0.4 percent after finishing 2016 3.7 percent higher, recording its best year in four. Japanese market remained closed for an extended New Year holiday. The best performers in the region are Australian shares which saw the S&P/ASX 200 Index added 1.2 percent, advancing for the third time in four trading days. Hong Kong's Hang Seng and China’s CSI 300 index and the Shanghai Composite were all higher.

The People's bank of China (PBOC) on Tuesday nearly doubled the number of foreign currencies in a basket used to set the renminbi's value. From the first trading day of 2017, the central bank increased the number of currencies in the CFETS basket to 24 from 13, in an attempt to make the yuan index less influenced by moves in the U.S. dollar. After this change, the nominal dollar weighting in the new basket is reduced by 4 percent.



Technicals

GBPJPY



Fig: GBPJPY H4 Technical Chart

GBPJPY has breached the resistance at 144.500 level after moving sideways around this handle since last Friday. The price action has crossed over the moving averages, suggesting a reversal into a new uptrend. The RSI and ADX is soaring, not to mention a wide gap between the +DI and –DI line. The pair may soar higher to attempt another resistance at 145.500.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 144.900, Take profit at 145.500, Stop loss at 144.600



USDJPY



Fig: USDJPY H4 Technical Chart

The pair USDJPY has broken out of a thin trading range to witness a strong up move in the first trading day of the new year. Buyers are supporting the dollar to break the 117.800 level again. Both indicators are confirming the strong bullish force which is dominating in the market. The pair is expected to retest the high at 118.600.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 118.000, Take profit at 118.600, Stop loss at 117.700



WTI



Fig: WTI H4 Technical Chart

Although the crude price has been trading in a thin range around the key level 54.00, it has been supported by a couple of moving average. Indeed, the U.S. oil price pulled back after hitting the short-term MA20 at 53.89. RSI continued to edging higher, supporting further advances.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 54.30, Take profit at 55.00, Stop loss at 53.90



CAC40 Index



Fig: CAC40 Index H4 Technical Chart

France’s CAC40 index opened Tuesday session with a gap up, extending its strong gains to the second day. The stock benchmark ended 10 days of trading in a thin range, sending the market into a fresh uptrend. The ADX index has soared above 20, confirming the upmove. A soaring RSI and a divergence between the +DI and –DI lines also indicate overwhelming buyers in the market.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 4905.00, Take profit at 4945.00, Stop loss at 4885.00

 

[CSFX.Support]

AUD/JPY signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 07:20 03/01/2017
Till GMT 21:00 03/01/2017

Buy at 85.000
Take profit at 85.500
Stop loss at 84.750

 

[CSFX.Support]

USDCHF Trade Idea by Capital Street FX

Dollar Marches To 15-year Highs, Supporting USDCHF to Edge Higher

The U.S. dollar continued to strengthen on Tuesday, after closing 3.6% higher in 2016. The dollar index recorded its fourth straight year of gains and extended its bullish momentum to the first trading day of 2017.

The pair USDCHF added 0.54% to trade at 1.0294, contributing to lift the dollar index to its highest level in 15 years. The gauge of the greenback’s strength against other 6 major currencies jumped 1.1% to 103.31 – the level not seen since December 2002, according to FactSet data.

The gains on Tuesday continued to be buoyed by the momentum seen in late 2016 with expectations that President-elect Donald Trump will boost fiscal spending and reform taxes in an attempt to reinforce the U.S. economy.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 1.03000, Take profit at 1.03400, Stop loss at 1.02800