EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 01.13.2025
EUR/USD Falls as Strong US Jobs Report Boosts Dollar
The EUR/USD pair fell on Monday after Friday's decline. The dollar index held at 109.6, supported by a stronger US jobs report showing 256,000 job gains in December, above the 160,000 forecast. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, while wage growth met expectations at 0.3%. Traders now anticipate the Fed will keep rates steady in upcoming meetings, with only one quarter-point cut expected this year, down from January's projection of 50 basis points. Focus shifts to US inflation data and Fed comments for policy insights.
From a technical perspective, the first resistance level is at 1.0270, with further resistance levels at 1.0350 and 1.0460 if the price breaks above. On the downside, the initial support is at 1.0125, followed by additional support levels at 1.0100 and 1.0050.
Yen Analysis By zForex Research Team - 01.13.2025
Yen Strengthens to 157.5 on Deflation Concerns and Global Risks
The Japanese yen strengthened to 157.5 per dollar on Monday, marking a third day of gains in light holiday trading. Support came from speculation that the Bank of Japan may raise inflation forecasts, signaling possible rate hikes. Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa called the economy "critical" in overcoming deflation but gave no timeline for BOJ action. Safe-haven demand also resulted in a stronger yen amid strong U.S. data and hawkish Fed expectations, which fuels global risk-off sentiment.
The key resistance level appears to be 158.60, with a break above it potentially targeting 160.00 and 161.00. On the downside, 154.90 is the first major support, followed by 153.40 and 152.40 if the price moves lower.
Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 01.14.2025
Dollar Rises on Strong US Jobs, Gold Holds Firm
The EUR/USD pair dropped to $1.020, its lowest since 2022, as strong U.S. jobs data and energy price surges pressured the euro.
The Japanese yen gained strength, stabilizing at 157.6 per dollar, amid speculation of a potential Bank of Japan rate hike. Gold rebounded to $2,670 per ounce despite a strong U.S. dollar, supported by its role as an inflation hedge. The GBP/USD pair weakened further to $1.215, reflecting economic divergence between the UK and the U.S. Meanwhile, silver prices slipped below $30 per ounce but remain supported by industrial demand and supply concerns.
Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 01.14.2025
Gold Holds Ground Despite Strong US Jobs Data
Gold climbed to $2,670 per ounce, rebounding from a more than 1% decline in the previous session driven by a strong U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields. The approaching inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump has sparked concerns that his proposed tariffs and trade policies could escalate inflation and provoke trade conflicts, boosting gold's attractiveness as an inflation hedge.
The precious metal’s broader outlook remains optimistic, supported by geopolitical uncertainties and sustained central bank buying. Investors are now focused on key U.S. economic data releases this week, including producer and consumer inflation reports, retail sales, and weekly jobless claims, which may offer further clarity on the economy and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate plans.
Technically, the first resistance level will be 2725 level. In case of this level’s breach, the next levels to watch would be 2750 and 2790 consequently. On the downside 2660 will be the first support level. 2630 and 2600 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.
GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 01.14.2025
GBP/USD Pressured by Diverging UK-US Economy
The British pound fell further to $1.215, its weakest level since November 2023, following a 1.7% decline the previous week, as fiscal challenges and rising gilt yields weighed on UK assets. Market sentiment has turned bearish, with options data indicating strong interest in contracts targeting levels below $1.20, and even as low as $1.12. The turbulence in UK markets last week, driven by persistent inflation, high borrowing costs, and concerns over policies linked to Donald Trump, has left the pound vulnerable, drawing comparisons to the market turmoil of 2022. Sterling's decline was further pressured by unexpectedly strong U.S. jobs data, which heightened concerns that the Bank of England may have limited room to cut rates to support the economy. Traders now predict 43 basis points of rate cuts by December 2025, down from the 50 basis points predicted just days earlier.
The first resistance level for the pair will be 1.2265. In the event of this level's breach, the next levels to watch would be 1.2350 and 1.2460. On the downside 1.2100 will be the first support level. 1.2080 and 1.2000 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.
Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 01.15.2025
Dollar Holds Prior to U.S. Inflation Report
The dollar paused its rally ahead of the U.S. inflation report, impacting the Fed's rate-cut outlook.
The euro traded at $1.0301, and the pound fell to $1.2205. Investors are watching UK inflation data amid economic concerns. U.S. markets expect a 0.2% rise in core consumer prices, limiting Fed rate cuts. The dollar is supported by fewer rate cuts and rising Treasury yields.
EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 01.15.2025
EUR/USD Strengthens as US PPI Misses Expectations
The EUR/USD pair strengthened and is trading around 1.03$ following the release of the underperforming US PPI data. The December consumer inflation report could impact the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy decisions. A surprise rise in inflation may limit the possibility of Fed rate cuts this year or even prompt the central bank to keep its current policy longer. Currently, markets are only expecting one quarter-point rate cut, likely in the second half of the year.
The dollar pulled back on Tuesday after a weak monthly PPI report, which rose by just 0.2% in December, below the expected 0.4%. The core PPI also held steady, contrary to expectations of a 0.3% increase. In addition, developments regarding Trump’s tariff plans are likely to increase volatility in the dollar as the January 20th inauguration draws closer.
From a technical perspective, the first resistance level is at 1.0350, with further resistance levels at 1.0460 and 1.0550 if the price breaks above. On the downside, the initial support is at 1.0270, followed by additional support levels at 1.0125 and 1.0100.
Silver Analysis By zForex Research Team - 01.15.2025
Silver Loses Ground with Inflation Concerns
Spot silver (XAG/USD) dropped 0.4% to $29.78 per ounce and continues to face pressure before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. While gold extended gains on Tuesday following a weak PPI report, silver’s performance remains subdued as market participants remain cautious ahead of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. The outlook for silver, like gold, is tied to inflationary pressures and the potential actions on rate cuts.
Technically, the first resistance level will be 30.35 level. In case of this level’s breach, the next levels to watch would be 30.70 and 31.00. On the downside, 28.81 will be the first support level. 28.50 and 28.00 are the next levels to observe if the first support level is breached.
Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 01.16.2025
Euro Gains on Gradual Tariff News, Yen Near 4-Week High, Gold Above $2,690
The euro rebounded near $1.03 on reports of phased Trump tariff plans easing inflation concerns.
The yen hit a four-week high at 155.5 on hawkish BOJ signals, while gold climbed above $2,690 per ounce amid cooling U.S. inflation and geopolitical tensions. The pound steadied at $1.22 after easing UK inflation data, and silver rose in hopes of a less restrictive Fed policy despite weak industrial demand. Traders await key economic data and central bank comments for monetary policy cues.
EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 01.16.2025
Euro Rebounds to $1.03 on Reports of Gradual Trump Tariffs
The euro rose to $1.03 from a two-year low of $1.018 amid reports of a phased tariff plan by Trump’s team to avoid sudden inflation spikes. The plan suggests gradual monthly tariff increases of 2-5%. The euro remains pressured as markets reassess rate cut expectations and inflation risks from Trump’s policies. Focus shifts to ECB minutes and Eurozone inflation data for policy insights.
From a technical perspective, the first resistance level is at 1.0350, with further resistance levels at 1.0460 and 1.0500 if the price breaks above. On the downside, the initial support is at 1.0270, followed by additional support levels at 1.0125 and 1.0100.
Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 01.16.2025
Eased Inflation and Trump Policies Shape Gold’s Outlook at $2,690
Gold held above $2,690 per ounce on Thursday, the highest in over a month, driven by easing US inflation and hopes for less restrictive Fed policy in 2025. Core inflation slowed unexpectedly, fueling expectations of 40 basis points in Fed rate cuts by year-end, up from 31. However, Fed officials cautioned that inflation risks remain, with pro-inflationary policies from President-elect Trump adding to concerns. A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas slightly reduced gold's safe-haven appeal.
Technically, the first resistance level will be 2725 level. In case of this level’s breach, the next levels to watch would be 2750 and 2790 consequently. On the downside 2660 will be the first support level. 2630 and 2600 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.
Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 01.17.2025
Fed Rate Cut Hopes Lift Euro, Yen Rally Continues, and Silver Hits $31
The euro rebounded to $1.03 on phased tariff news, though ongoing rate cut expectations and inflation risks tied to Trump's policies keep it under pressure.
The yen strengthened near 155.5 amid hints of a hawkish BOJ, while gold hovered above $2,710 on tempered safe-haven demand after a Middle East ceasefire. The British pound weakened to $1.22 on soft economic data and debt concerns, and silver climbed to $31, driven by Fed rate cut hopes despite industrial demand worries. Investors now watch upcoming data and central bank signals for further market direction.
British Pound Analysis By zForex Research Team - 01.17.2025
Pound Weakens on Stagflation Fears and Fiscal Concerns
The British pound weakened to $1.22, near late 2023 lows, as traders evaluated economic data and stagflation risks. GDP grew just 0.1% in November, missing forecasts, with three-month growth stalling. The economy risks stagnating for a second quarter unless December GDP grows by at least 0.07%, per the ONS. Annual inflation fell to 2.5% in December, matching BoE forecasts but below market expectations. Traders expect only one quarter-point rate cut from the BoE this year. UK financial and bond markets remain strained by concerns over debt levels and the government’s ability to meet budget targets.
The first resistance level for the pair will be 1.2265. In the event of this level's breach, the next levels to watch would be 1.2350 and 1.2460. On the downside 1.2100 will be the first support level. 1.2080 and 1.2000 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.
Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 01.17.2025
Geopolitical Calm Tempers Gold Gains, but Bullish Trend Continues
Gold traded at $2,710 per ounce on Friday, near a month-high, and set for a third weekly gain. Cooler U.S. core inflation and weak retail sales bolstered hopes for multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, reinforced by Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s comments on potential easing. Rate cuts would increase gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset. Additionally, anticipated inflation from Trump’s proposed tariffs further strengthened gold’s role as an inflation hedge. However, a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas reduced safe-haven demand. Gold has risen about 1% this week.
Technically, the first resistance level will be 2725 level. In case of this level’s breach, the next levels to watch would be 2750 and 2790 consequently. On the downside 2660 will be the first support level. 2630 and 2600 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.
