Jbat001
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It's broken through the top of the main trend channel now. Too hot for my money - I have a sneaking feeling that a top may be forming, and then we'll see two weeks of jaggeddy declines before resuming the uptrend, in a bit more of a moderate pace. In the meantime, my cash is staying out!
mark twain uk
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I got stopped out this morning at 7900, it's far too strong and it looks like it's going to reach 8000 today. Nasty loss, about 300 point on four shorts.
mark twain uk
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I've never seen anything like this, the rally in the last few days is way past parabolic, is vertical, it's put on almost 300 points since Wednesday at 14:30, it's not yet 48 hours.
mark twain uk
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short again from 7966, something's got to give
firewalker99
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Never seen anything like this?
Err... go back couple of years... look at the steepness of the trend. The one from 2000 has an even steeper inclination. Sure, the top is near. But top picking can get one killed...
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mark twain uk
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OK, I exagerate a bit, I have not seen anything like this since the dot.com boom, but you can understand the need to exagerate after a loss of 300+ points
Jbat001
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Forgive me, but why on earth are you going short again, after being stopped out for doing the same thing? It might well head south, but it might carry on for another 500 points (though I personally doubt it), and burn you again. Why not long, if anything?
I'm sitting on the sidelines. It's not like DAX is going to disappear if I don't trade it, and the current rate of climb is utterly absurd. Sure, I'm losing potential profits, but who the hell cares when I've already made more than enough by going long with the trend in these last few weeks? Putting it another way, what technical signal suggests to you that now is a good time to go short, other than that it seems way overpriced?
nkruger
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I agree Jbat, there was a lovely long signal this morning at 8.00am @7911 and it stayed above the 20ema 'til about 4pm (@ 7980) Why try and guess what the index is going to do ?? Just trade what you see - I didn't see a reason to short the Dax today !!!
NK
Jbat001
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Bulls and bears more evenly balanced than I expected today... which way will it go tomorrow?
The chart looks ridiculous, but that's no guarantee of anything
EDIT: I've decided to go short this evening - the market will just have to judge if I'm foolish or wise. A favourable MACD crossover on the 1 hour chart, and an appropriate stochastic signal. MA isn't quite there, but nearly. I await the morning with bated breath!
The chart looks ridiculous, but that's no guarantee of anything
EDIT: I've decided to go short this evening - the market will just have to judge if I'm foolish or wise. A favourable MACD crossover on the 1 hour chart, and an appropriate stochastic signal. MA isn't quite there, but nearly. I await the morning with bated breath!
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firewalker99
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Bulls and bears more evenly balanced than I expected today... which way will it go tomorrow?
The chart looks ridiculous, but that's no guarantee of anything
EDIT: I've decided to go short this evening - the market will just have to judge if I'm foolish or wise. A favourable MACD crossover on the 1 hour chart, and an appropriate stochastic signal. MA isn't quite there, but nearly. I await the morning with bated breath!
Looks like you managed a good short!
Are you out yet? I've entered longs from 7900, obvious level for a pullback. Those are nice in profit now.
Btw, did anybody notice that extremely high volume this morning, 15000 lots traded on a 5-min bar? what's that all about? and not on news?!
nkruger
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Bulls and bears more evenly balanced than I expected today... which way will it go tomorrow?
The chart looks ridiculous, but that's no guarantee of anything
EDIT: I've decided to go short this evening - the market will just have to judge if I'm foolish or wise. A favourable MACD crossover on the 1 hour chart, and an appropriate stochastic signal. MA isn't quite there, but nearly. I await the morning with bated breath!
As a newbie to the Dax, could you tell me whether you use any other indicators other than MACD, Stochs and MA's ?
Thanks, Nick
Jbat001
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Nope - very occasionally I look at momentum, but too many indicators is counterproductive for me. I've had no problems trading DAX with this combination, and have done reasonably well (so far).
Firewalker:
Still short for now - want to see where this ends up. Looks to be still wanting to head south.
nkruger
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Thank you, Jbat. I will continue my studies and perhaps integrate some of your trading methodology into it. The Dax certainly has a different personality to the Dow, which I'm comforable with and reasonably successful.
Nick
firewalker99
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Excellent call on that short. I don't hold overnights, and the time I hold a position is quite short. I guess 8000 triggered the sell orders :|
firewalker99
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The fall today surprised me honestly, what's your view?
Possible selling in terms of likely intrest hike coming up next hour.
yes, US markets not really far off hmm
Jbat001
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The fall today surprised me honestly, what's your view?
Possible selling in terms of likely intrest hike coming up next hour.
yes, US markets not really far off hmm
It seems people will always look to fundamentals to try and explain market falls, but it always seemed to me that 'fundamental' events which perturbed the markets only let loose what was already waiting to happen, based upon a technical view (exceptions for major terrorist events and force majeure) - like pulling a cork out of a bottle.
After the February falls, DAX quickly rose to the old trendline, bounced along it three times in about a month, then took off on this new major trajectory upward. Now it seems to be correcting, as the market was, in fairness, ludicrously overbought. I'm expecting it to take a further beating from the ECB in about half a hour. If it fell back to the original trendline (which was already running an increase of 200 points a month = too high), we'd be looking at rolling daily DAX in the region of 7500 by mid June. There are, of course, other support levels between here and there, but time will tell.
For now, short is the way forward.
