Daily Analysis By FXGlory

[FXGlory]

GBPAUD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.10.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Upcoming economic data releases from both the UK and Australia will play a crucial role in predicting the direction of the GBP/AUD pair. Key releases for the GBP currency include Claimant Count Change, Average Earnings Index 3m/y, and the Unemployment Rate. The Claimant Count Change is expected to show an improvement from 135K to 95.5K, suggesting a slight improvement in the UK labor market. Average Earnings Index 3m/y is forecasted to dip from 4.5% to 4.1%, indicating weaker wage growth. The Unemployment Rate is projected to hold steady at 4.1%, which may keep investor confidence intact but limits any significant bullish move in the GBP.
On the Australian side, the Westpac Consumer Sentiment data, along with the NAB Business Confidence report, is expected to provide insights into the current economic outlook. If both data sets show improving confidence, it could strengthen the AUD in the short term.


Price Action:
The GBP/AUD price line has entered a correction phase after a strong bullish wave. Currently, the price is consolidating above the Ichimoku cloud, which suggests that bullish sentiment may remain dominant in the near future. RSI (Relative Strength Index) is not yet in the overbought area, and the stochastic indicator shows that the bearish momentum is nearly exhausted. Traders should keep an eye on the bearish trend line within this correction phase, as a breakout above this area could signal the continuation of the bullish trend.


Key Technical Indicators:
RSI: The RSI is hovering below the overbought level, suggesting more room for upward movement before reaching overextended conditions.
Stochastic: The stochastic oscillator is showing signs of reaching the end of a bearish run, hinting at a potential bullish crossover.
Ichimoku Cloud: The price has broken above the cloud, which is a bullish signal, and could indicate further upside if the price sustains above this area.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: The nearest support is at 1.9500, just above the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud. A break below this level could signal further bearish correction toward 1.9450.
Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is at the descending trend line formed in the current correction phase. A breakout above 1.9600 could confirm a continuation of the bullish trend, targeting the next resistance around 1.9700.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The GBP/AUD H4 chart suggests that while the pair is undergoing a corrective phase, the overall sentiment remains bullish due to the price holding above the Ichimoku cloud. If the price breaks above the current descending trend line during this correction, bulls are likely to take over the market again. Traders should also pay close attention to upcoming GBP and AUD economic data releases, as these can highly influence the pair’s movement in the short term.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
09.10.2024

 

[FXGlory]

NZDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.11.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:

Upcoming economic data releases from both the U.S. and New Zealand will play a crucial role in determining the future direction of the NZD/USD pair. On the U.S. side, the most anticipated releases include the Core CPI m/m, which is expected to remain steady at 0.2%, and the overall CPI y/y, expected to dip slightly from 2.9% to 2.5%. These inflation figures are significant in shaping the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook and could strengthen or weaken the USD depending on the outcome. Crude Oil Inventories and the 10-y Bond Auction are also on the calendar, with lower oil inventories potentially lifting crude prices, which could influence inflationary expectations.

For New Zealand, the Food Price Index (FPI) is expected to show a modest increase of 0.4%. Although not a major economic indicator, any significant deviation could impact the NZD slightly, especially in the absence of other major economic data. Overall, the combination of U.S. inflation data and New Zealand’s FPI may contribute to a period of volatility for the NZD/USD pair.


Price Action:

The NZD/USD price line recently broke below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a shift to bearish sentiment on the H4 chart. The price action has been forming lower highs and lower lows, a typical characteristic of a downtrend. With the RSI hovering below the 40 level and the stochastic oscillator nearing oversold territory, there is strong potential for continued bearish momentum. Traders should watch for further declines as the bearish structure remains intact, especially if the price fails to break back above the Ichimoku cloud.



Key Technical Indicators:

RSI: The RSI is currently at 38.90, indicating bearish sentiment but not yet oversold. There is room for the pair to continue its downward move before a reversal is likely.

Stochastic: The stochastic oscillator is reading at 29.54 and 41.98, showing potential for a bearish crossover, which could signal continued selling pressure.

Ichimoku Cloud: The price has broken below the Ichimoku cloud, suggesting that the pair is firmly in a bearish trend. A failure to break back above the cloud could lead to further downside.



Support and Resistance:

Support Levels: The nearest support is at 0.6100, which could act as a crucial level to watch for any bearish continuation. A break below this level may see the price heading toward the 0.6050 region.

Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is at 0.6175, near the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud. A break above this level would signal a potential end to the bearish phase, targeting the next resistance at 0.6200.


Conclusion and Consideration:

The NZD/USD H4 chart signals a clear bearish trend with the price breaking below the Ichimoku cloud and forming lower highs and lower lows. Traders should watch the upcoming U.S. CPI data closely, as any surprises could significantly impact the USD and further drive the pair’s movement. On the technical side, as long as the price remains below the cloud, bearish momentum is expected to continue. A break below the support at 0.6100 could accelerate the decline, while a move back above the resistance at 0.6175 would signal a potential shift in sentiment.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
09.11.2024

 

[FXGlory]

USDCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.12.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:

The USD/CAD forex pair represents the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the Canadian dollar, with both economies being heavily influenced by commodity prices, particularly oil. Recently, the U.S. dollar has experienced some fluctuations due to upcoming U.S. economic reports, such as unemployment claims and the Producer Price Index (PPI), both of which are crucial for gauging inflation and labor market conditions. For Canada, today’s focus is on oil inventories and the performance of the Canadian economy, heavily tied to global oil prices. Any unexpected movements in oil prices can have a direct impact on the Canadian dollar. As of now, the pair is in a tight range as traders await these key economic releases, with cautious sentiment dominating the market.


Price Action:

In terms of price action, the USD CAD pair has shown an upward trend over the past few sessions but is currently consolidating. It recently retraced from the upper Bollinger Band and has now touched the middle band, which appears to act as support. The last two candles are bullish, indicating potential upward momentum. However, the presence of the Parabolic SAR dots above the price suggests caution, as this can indicate selling pressure. The price is fluctuating between the 38.2% and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement levels, with resistance near the 23.6% level. A break above this level could signal a continuation of the upward trend.


Key Technical Indicators:

Bollinger Bands: The price has moved from the upper band towards the middle band, which is acting as a dynamic support. Currently, the price is showing signs of a potential bounce as the last two candles have turned bullish, indicating that the middle Bollinger Band has provided temporary support.
Parabolic SAR: The last three Parabolic SAR points are positioned above the candles, which signals potential downward pressure. However, since the price is still holding above key support levels, traders should watch for a reversal signal if the dots shift below the price.
MACD: The MACD indicator is currently showing weakening bullish momentum. The histogram is positive but shrinking, indicating that while the uptrend remains, momentum has slowed. A potential bearish crossover could occur if this trend continues, signaling a potential downside move.
%R (Williams %R): The %R is currently around -61, indicating that the market is neither overbought nor oversold. This neutral level suggests there is still room for price action to go either way, depending on market sentiment and upcoming fundamental factors.


Support and Resistance Levels:

Support: Immediate support can be seen near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level around 1.3550, followed by more substantial support near the 50% Fibonacci level at 1.3520.
Resistance: The nearest resistance is the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.3590. A successful breach of this level could pave the way toward the next resistance at 1.3630, which coincides with the recent swing highs.


Conclusion and Consideration:

The USD-CAD pair is showing mixed signals on the H4 chart. While the price action indicates a possible continuation of the upward trend after bouncing off the middle Bollinger Band, the technical indicators such as the Parabolic SAR and weakening MACD suggest caution. Traders should closely monitor the price’s behavior around the 23.6% Fibonacci level for a potential breakout, while also keeping an eye on upcoming economic releases for both the U.S. and Canada. With upcoming news such as U.S. unemployment claims and Canadian oil inventories, volatility can be expected, which could further influence the pair's direction.


Disclaimer: This analysis is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making trading decisions. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it is important to stay informed of the latest developments.


FXGlory
09.12.2024

 

[FXGlory]

EUR/USD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.13.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today, the EUR/USD forex pair is influenced by key economic data releases from both the Eurozone and the US. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from INSEE and the industrial production data from Eurostat are likely to set the tone for the Euro, reflecting the inflation rate and manufacturing output within the region. On the US side, the Import Price Index and consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan are critical, as they provide early insights into inflation and consumer confidence. A higher-than-expected CPI or industrial output reading in the Eurozone could boost the Euro, while strong import price data or positive consumer sentiment in the US would likely strengthen the USD, adding pressure on the EURUSD pair.


Price Action:
In the H4 timeframe, the EUR/USD pair shows a clear bullish trend after rebounding from the 1.1010 level. The price moved from the lower half of the Bollinger Bands, crossing the middle band, and now has reached the upper band, indicating strong bullish momentum. The recent five candles show steady upward movement, as the pair broke through the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels and is now testing the 50.0% level. If the pair manages to breach this key resistance level, it could move towards the 61.8% or even the 100% Fibonacci retracement level, though a failure to break through 50.0% may signal a potential retracement to the previous support levels.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The price has moved from the lower half of the Bollinger Bands and is now touching the upper band, which reflects strong bullish momentum. The widening of the bands suggests increasing volatility in the market.
Parabolic SAR: The last five Parabolic SAR dots are placed below the candles, signaling a continuation of the uptrend. As long as the dots stay below the price action, bullish momentum is expected to persist.
MACD: The MACD line is approaching the signal line from below, suggesting a potential bullish crossover. This would confirm the upward momentum if the crossover occurs, signaling continued buying pressure.
Williams %R: Currently, the %R is around -0.39, indicating the price is in bullish territory but not yet overbought. There is still room for upward movement before hitting extreme levels.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: 1.1055 (23.6% Fibonacci), 1.1030, and 1.1010 (recent low).
Resistance Levels: 1.1087 (50.0% Fibonacci), 1.1115 (61.8% Fibonacci), and 1.1150 (100.0% Fibonacci).


Conclusion and Consideration: The EUR USD pair is currently in an uptrend on the H4 chart, with strong bullish signals from both technical indicators and price action. If the pair can break above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level, it is likely to continue higher towards the 61.8% level. However, if resistance at the 50.0% level holds, a pullback toward the 38.2% level is possible, where previous support levels may provide a buying opportunity. Traders should keep an eye on today’s fundamental data releases, as they could lead to increased volatility and confirm the direction of the pair.


Disclaimer: The provided EUR-USD analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it is essential to conduct thorough research before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
09.13.2024

 

[FXGlory]

GBPUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.16.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The GBP/USD pair is facing mixed market conditions today as the U.S. dollar is influenced by the release of the New York Manufacturing Index, which serves as a leading indicator of U.S. economic health. A higher-than-forecast reading would likely support the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, in the UK, the Rightmove House Price Index (HPI) is in focus, which measures the change in asking prices for homes. Although the housing sector is less correlated to actual selling prices, it provides an early look into market conditions. With U.S. economic data expected to drive the dollar and UK housing data potentially offering limited support for the pound, traders can expect GBP/USD volatility today.


Price Action:
In the GBPUSD H4 chart, we observe an upward trend, with the price currently trading between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. This signals a continuation of the upward movement after a recent pullback. The GBPUSD price action shows bullish momentum as it attempts to break higher levels, with candles forming higher lows in the last few sessions. The pair appears to be trading within a rising channel, indicating further potential upside if support levels hold.


Key Technical Indicators:
Short SMA (9): The short-term moving average has crossed above the long-term moving average (SMA 17), suggesting bullish momentum in the medium term.
Long SMA (17): The long SMA shows gradual upward movement, reinforcing the continuation of the bullish trend as the price action respects this indicator as a dynamic support.
MACD: The MACD histogram shows growing bullish momentum, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line. This supports the possibility of further upward movement as buying pressure increases.
Volumes: Recent volume data shows increased buying interest, supporting the recent price surge. However, traders should watch for potential exhaustion if volume starts to decline.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The immediate support level is at 1.3070 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement), with a stronger base at 1.3040, aligning with the lower boundary of the channel.
Resistance: Key resistance stands at 1.3160 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), followed by 1.3240, which marks the 100% Fibonacci extension.


Conclusion and Consideration:
GBP/USD continues to display bullish momentum, supported by technical indicators like the SMA crossover and MACD’s positive trend. With key support levels holding, the pair is likely to continue its upward trajectory. However, U.S. data releases could play a crucial role in determining the dollar’s strength, which might influence this trend. Traders should monitor upcoming news for both GBP and USD to gauge potential market reactions, particularly if the U.S. data exceeds forecasts.


b]Disclaimer:[/b] This GBP-USD analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s important for traders to conduct their own research before making any trading decisions. Always consider market volatility and news events before entering any trade.


FXGlory
09.16.2024

 

[FXGlory]

NZD/USD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.17.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today's NZD/USD performance is expected to be influenced by both US and New Zealand economic data. On the US side, several key reports, such as Retail Sales and Factory Output, are scheduled. Strong retail sales data could reinforce expectations of higher US interest rates, boosting the USD. Conversely, weak sales data might support a dovish outlook for the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President is also scheduled to speak, and any hawkish remarks might further strengthen the USD. On the New Zealand side, the Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction report is due, a critical factor since dairy products play a significant role in New Zealand's export economy. Positive data from the GDT auction could lend some support to the NZD.


Price Action:
In the H4 time frame, the NZD USD pair shows signs of a recovery after a previous downtrend. The price action has been bullish in recent sessions, with 7 out of the last 10 candles closing higher. The recent retracement is bouncing off the 38.2% Fibonacci level and approaching the 50.0% level. This indicates that the pair is regaining strength after a short pullback, signaling potential bullish continuation.


Key Technical Indicators:
MA Short (9): The short-term 9-period moving average has crossed above the 17-period long moving average, suggesting that upward momentum is building.
MA Long (17): The 17-period moving average is now acting as dynamic support, confirming that bullish momentum is gaining strength. The crossover is a classic sign of trend reversal, which aligns with the recent bullish price action.
MACD (12,26,9): The MACD line is currently above the signal line, indicating a bullish trend in place. However, the histogram shows slight divergence, suggesting that momentum may slow down in the short term. Traders should monitor closely for any potential bearish crossover, which could signal a trend reversal.
DeMarker (14): The DeMarker indicator currently stands at 0.52, indicating that the market is in a neutral zone with no overbought or oversold conditions. This leaves room for further upward movement before approaching overbought levels, which could support the ongoing bullish trend.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: Immediate support is at 0.6155, aligning with the 38.2% Fibonacci level, followed by 0.6100 as a key psychological level.
Resistance: The first resistance is at 0.6200 near the 50.0% Fibonacci level, with the next level at 0.6230 at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The NZD/USD pair is exhibiting bullish momentum on the H4 chart, supported by positive price action and a moving average crossover. However, key fundamental events for both the USD and NZD are scheduled for today, which could introduce volatility. A breakout above the 50.0% Fibonacci level could trigger a continuation of the uptrend, while bearish data from the US might cap gains or lead to a reversal. It is crucial to monitor the upcoming Retail Sales data and GDT auction results, as these will provide further direction for the pair.


Disclaimer: The NZDUSD analysis provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and traders should conduct their own research and stay updated with the latest developments before making trading decisions.


FXGlory
09.17.2024