guten morgen herren und damen,
my system has me long from 1.8579 yesterday, reversing to short at 1.8622 (at time of writing i've missed the high at 1.8623, takes too long to get the data and process it to pick up the trades in the first 2 hours),
so my system is stuck short for the day, though I think i would take profits (no reverse) at st2 = 1.8571
the probability framework pre-open Oct 17 is as follows
lt2 1.8695 .376
lt1 1.8667 .617
bstop 1.8638 .891
sstop 1.8622 .883 hit already
st1 1.8597 .594
st2 1.8571 .362
after my post last night around 10:30, mkt at 8610, i suggested an equal chance of hitting 8520 and
8645, implying at that time the pips for the risk was weighted to shorting. I thought about it after and mused that at the halfway point between 8520 and 8645 , i.e. 8582 the risk weighting would come into equilibrium. So i observe with interest this morning that the downmove that did happen after my post in fact hit 8581 and then turned around and hit 8648 which was the day's high and just above lt2. more supportive evidence for this framework? (another 98 instances to go)