Currency Trading (Oct 9th > 13th)

[trendie]

not too bad considering -34 for the day on VEBO.

I wonder if its worth playing on a day when the morning gap is as small as it was this morning. Will back test and confirm.

there is another school of thought that goes that the daily range of cable is around 120-130 pips, and if the asian session takes up too much of it, the remaining day will have less room to move. ie; if the asian session takes up fewer pips-range, all the more for the euro and us sessions!

the wonderful world of trading!

I just go where my turquoise MA takes me.

 

[eek]

My memory (albeit dodgy) tells me that on days when the 5am - 8am band is small it remains small for the entirety of the European session.

Thankfully I have tick data for the past few years so while time consuming back testing isn't too painful.

 

[neil]

there is another school of thought that goes that the daily range of cable is around 120-130 pips, and if the asian session takes up too much of it, the remaining day will have less room to move. ie; if the asian session takes up fewer pips-range, all the more for the euro and us sessions!

the wonderful world of trading!



I just go where my turquoise MA takes me.

Didn't newtron Bomb, who used to post here but now trades full time, make that observation about the overnight Asian session ( 12 night to 7 or 8am) ?

 

[ChowClown]

..some interesting set-ups developing now off the 240s. I'm now short loonie 1349, sl 1390, tgt 1282. Swissy will probably be the next short, a bit further to go yet though.

 

[wasp]

Evening all, I'm back in town and all ready for next week!

I see with DC taking time off we've flattened out for the last 2 days... Really wish he wouldn't do that!

Hope we're all doing well!?!

 

[DAVIDB75]

good morning everyone, my name is David,I have been interested to see your posts for the last few
days since I joined this board. I don't have a lot of experience with boards,
so please excuse me if I don't understand at times or am impolite etc.
(for example I did not know when I joined that capitals mean shouting, and did not mean to
imply I was shouting my name at you)
i have been working on a GBPUSD (Cable you call it I gather), trading system based on historical data using a programmable database system. The results have been encouraging so I started using it working out the bugs etc and trying to find some refinements. as a result I set up a probability framework which has helped me to refine my system and also i am getting indications that it helps manage the trade as the day progresses. The crux of this is the (theory) that I start the day with a starting framework of probabilities for different price levels to be achieved, then as the day progresses the probabilities
of the targets collapse in one direction or the other and the probable close compared to the current price can be calculated.

I trade from Tasmania so I am in the Asian session, I use CMC and they post the times as GMT i think,which may not not be your daylight saving time?

I will use yesterday as an example and then tell you where I am today , using CMC's times on the chart.
Starting probablities Pre open Oct 12
1.8642 .378
1.8607 .62
1.8562 .893
1.8547 .882
1.852 .66
1.8492 .44

open was less than 1.8547, this is unusual, probabilities of higher targets collapse
eg 1.8607 now around .5 , 1.8492 target comes up to .55 or so.

Then at 8.30 (30min bar) price spikes to 1.8613.
probability shift 1.852 drops to .6
1.8492 .3
now calculate the pbty of the close (pbty=probability)
close<1.8562 .2 or so
close>1.8607 .4 or so
at 13.30 (CMC 30min bar) new low 1.8535, so new pbtys
close<1.8562 .21
close>1.8607 >.4

my system had put me long at 1.8562 at your 13.30 (CMC 30 min bar) at 1.8550 or so
I wanted to go to bed, based on the close pbtys I sat on my long. (better pbty
of closing in profit). My system target was in fact much higher, so my system
had me sitting on the long position anyway, but if the pbtys were against i probably
would have closed my long.

(because the open was low against the pbtys I had a smaller set of data so more
volatility in the pbtys, the principle can still be seen.) close was 1.8592 so good to hold.

Starting probabilities Pre open Oct 13
1.8666 .378
1.8635 .62
1.8601 .893
1.8584 .882
1.8538 .66
1.8554 .44
1.8524 .36
open at 1.8592
spike low 01:30 1.8580
spike high 02:00 1.8624

new pbtys
close<1.8601 .41 ] implies stay long ?
close>1.8635 .366 ]
close<1.8584 .27 ]

new high 4:00 1.8626

close<1.8601 .401 ] implies stay long ?
close>1.8635 .38 ]
close<1.8584 .26 ]
it is now 5:00 bar and 1.8616,i am soon to post this.

my system has asked me to exit and go short at 1.8601
i held out for 1.8606. the pbtys so far indicate a hung decision i think.
i have followed my system though.

The reasons i am posting this;

if u are interested, i am hoping to post the pbtys i have derived
from the asian session each day. u can make of them what you will.
i hope they may assist at times. i am not intending to stay up all night
following the UK session but i hope to post an update in my late evening.

If it seems to make sense and have some validity please let me know
and ask me questions. it is a totally new way to approach it for me, i would be interested
to know whether anyone has seen anything like it before.

to paraphrase bob dylan " i'm just a trading expeditionary"

David

 

[Priceman]

DavidB75,

There's always room for new ideas and I'd welcome a look at what you're doing. Let's see how your theory goes. Thanks and welcome to the board. Be prepared for some sarcasm and banter as well as positive feedback. If what you talk about is good and you are not here to disrupt things or flog us any system then you will be well received.

All the best and keep the posts coming.

PS waiting to get in long around 70-90 on cable. My Piv is at 8579, any lower than 8560 and I'm confused unless it's a stop hunt.

Good trading all

 

[DAVIDB75]

DavidB75,

There's always room for new ideas and I'd welcome a look at what you're doing. Let's see how your theory goes. Thanks and welcome to the board. Be prepared for some sarcasm and banter as well as positive feedback. If what you talk about is good and you are not here to disrupt things or flog us any system then you will be well received.

All the best and keep the posts coming.

PS waiting to get in long around 70-90 on cable. My Piv is at 8579, any lower than 8560 and I'm confused unless it's a stop hunt.

Good trading all

thanks for the welcome priceman
I have to go out , update below, defineitely stay long indicated , I have quit my short
spike high 7:30 bar 1.8634

close<1.8601 .67 ] implies stay long ?
close>1.8635 .504 ]
close<1.8584 .18 ]

 

[ChowClown]

Morning all,

DavidB75, your probability model sounds v interesting and would be a welcome addition to the thread, imo.

Orders in and long 652, short 603. Had a 4hr long triggered overnight targeting 735.

 

[trendie]

it pulled back to optimal entry (I was sleeping when optimal occurred). LONG 1.8560.

bail out for +60, at 1.8620.

 

[ChowClown]

...nice start for you trendie. I'm now short and down 11 pips atm...

 

[a_gnome]

thanks for the welcome priceman
I have to go out , update below, defineitely stay long indicated , I have quit my short
spike high 7:30 bar 1.8634

close<1.8601 .67 ] implies stay long ?
close>1.8635 .504 ]
close<1.8584 .18 ]

Hi David,
Could you elaborate on what your probabilities mean? For example they seem to be saying that the chance of it closing < 1.8601 is 67% and yet the chance of it closing > 1.8635 is 50.4% which is clearly not possible as these are exclusive outcomes which add up to more that 100%! Or are these figures to be taken merely as relative likelihoods? So the chance of it closing < 1.8601 is 67/50.4 times the probability of it closing > 1.8635?

 

[rav700]

My trades are in as well

I am short @ 1.8606 with a stop @ 1.8626

 

[trendie]

some slight move to the downside - at last.
go LONG if it hits 1.8575. (still have go-LONG-condition, looking for pull-backs)

 

[Offshore Trader]

Unfortunately today is looking much like yesterday. great for those who like to trade ranges. Useless and costly for those trading breakouts. let's hope the economic data provokes some decent movement. Short but not happy at 02

 

[JER08]

Unfortunately today is looking much like yesterday. great for those who like to trade ranges. Useless and costly for those trading breakouts. let's hope the economic data provokes some decent movement. Short but not happy at 02

We'll likely to see either 8700 or 8500 later today/monday, there's somtimes explosive actions after narrow range days.

 

[Priceman]

We'll likely to see either 8700 or 8500 later today/monday, there's somtimes explosive actions after narrow range days.

For sure mate, but which side are you on ? I am waiting to see which way the news goes and then make my choice...

 

[ChowClown]

...nice start for you trendie. I'm now short and down 11 pips atm...

1st short of the day out for a loss; re-armed short, filled and running....

 

[JER08]

I am short from 606, but have a reversal strategy in place just in case.

Retail sales worse than expected, but $ still goes up, what a game!

 

[Offshore Trader]

1st short of the day out for a loss; re-armed short, filled and running....

Same here. Cross about that spike though