Currency trading (Oct 16th > 20th)

[wasp]

8220... said that at the biginning of the week!

 

[KTD]

.8642. Bit of a mistake was good entry night before and I jumped in without rechecking the charts in the morning, which by then indicated a long to .8724.

Whilst writing, does everybody else simply hate receiving PM's trying to solicit your interest in a 1000% system you have never heard of and couldn't care less about?

As some of the other posters say, - keep it. When the US numbers arrive, you can breakeven or even take a meager profit.

After the US numbers, we will see a hard attack on the support lvl at 1,8665, with a possible breach depending on the force of the US numbers. Then a retrace to 1,8670/ 80.

IMHO.....

EDIT: Think I'm going to go short @1,8700 but preferebly 1,8710 as the outcome of the US numbers later aren't a shoein yet, and the market hasnt had its usual knee jitters yet, so not sure if I can catch it at a higher lvl.

 

[wasp]

Told everyone at the start of the week allready...... 8221!!!!!

 

[dc2000]

You still looking for your long mate from 8619

nope Im in from 670 after a recalc wouldnt want to see 635 today thet would make me look for an exit at B/E

and just incase you are thinking wow DC got in well on the 9:30 drop my limit kicked in overnight and this morning I had young DC's harvest festival school play when I got back home hey presto like a snakes n ladders game I was right back at the start

 

[trendie]

I was expecting a more decisive move up yesterday, to no avail.
not so sure that cable can hit a high higher than yesterdays, so that turn down is more "neater".
looks messy.
I have a trend-down state from 8pm yesterday, but am unwilling to put money on it.

 

[DAVIDB75]

Looking to abandon my short soon. Not because I don't think it will make target, that could go either way at the moment. However it has been a frustrating week on cable for me and I think I need to give it a rest for a while, might try oil instead

for what its worth, my oil system put me long this morning at 59.69 (december contract CMC)
for the past month oil has been a lot kinder than cable to me. (almost a month since a new high on cable, oil yesterday)

i am also short cable from 8713

when you work it out in real money terms cable is only down 2% , oil can lose 30% very quickly.

 

[Offshore Trader]

Well, my system has sent me short again, although my head tells me it's going the other way. My head's normally wrong though!

 

[Uphios]

for what its worth, my oil system put me long this morning at 59.69 (december contract CMC)
for the past month oil has been a lot kinder than cable to me. (almost a month since a new high on cable, oil yesterday)

i am also short cable from 8713

when you work it out in real money terms cable is only down 2% , oil can lose 30% very quickly.

Ahh, David. Perhaps you can tell me a little about oil. I presume there is no overnight swap charging because it is a monthly contract but what happens to the November contracts tomorrow? I here they roll them over to Dec contracts but what happens about the 150 pips difference??

As you can see, all of my oil dabblings have been 1 day trades

 

[coolTrader]

In the abscence of any decent move in the market I will just say my target and take no trade. I have had enough beating for one day.

I am looking for 1.8591 on cable.. Long shot eh! I know but It does not seem too keen on breaking upwards at the moment.

 

[DAVIDB75]

the pips for the risk equilibrium calculation at the moment is 684, so my thinking is, for big institutional traders they are seeing no clear direction to push the market to make trading profits. Yesterday the pips for the risk calculation was 8728, which was rejected twice by the market yesterday and once again today.
this leads me to think down is more probable and once it hits 632 the probability of new highs collapses significantly.

 

[DAVIDB75]

Ahh, David. Perhaps you can tell me a little about oil. I presume there is no overnight swap charging because it is a monthly contract but what happens to the November contracts tomorrow? I here they roll them over to Dec contracts but what happens about the 150 pips difference??

As you can see, all of my oil dabblings have been 1 day trades

no interest charged overnight, that i have ever seen and only swapped if you are holding on CMC's rollover day. I have tried to avoid their rollovers but it has happened a couple of times with less pain than i anticipated. This is the first month I have been able to migrate to the next
month (December), before the other has actually expired, which is great because the data provider has rolled over a couple of days ago and it gets confusing trying to translate my system at that point. It seems to me CMC is doing a lot better job of supporting this commodity now than when i started, (they used to re-quote often, would not deal at times, would not allow the next contract, would not provide chart data for the next contract etc.)

Of course by buying the December contract rather than November, i am paying the extra pips already and taking the risk on the time premium but that's the beast i'm afraid.
hope this helps. david

 

[KTD]

The cross has been extremely quite for the last 2½ hours now. Expect a knee jittering in the minutes before the numbers, and then the reaction to the Jobless claims, Consensus is 310 K , if lower, the dollar would gain, if higher vice versa.


Edit: ALSO, remember the Philly FED numbers, - there are an expectation for a sharp improvement contra the last numbers, which should boost the USD.

 

[KTD]

claims out at 2453K vs. 2445K exp. Intial Jobless claims out at 299K vs. 308K exp

I went short when it touched 1,8700 - aiming at 20 pips..

 

[Uphios]

It seems to me there is a rally on cable ahead of each news event at the moment. When the news disappoints the retrace still ends higher than where the pre-news rally started. Eventually one of these news items has to be O.K. to good and then cable will presumably take off to the high side.

 

[KTD]

I agree Uphios, despite the O.K. numbers, im having a hard time getting my 20 pips, and the retrace trend is very strong! - If the Philly FED numbers dissapoint, we cound see a trend change to the favour of Longs instead of shorts. The cable is displaying extreme bouancy.

Edit: and if that happens DC will definately be correct in his assumption,.

 

[Offshore Trader]

There is a danger that EUR/GBP will go back to the old down trend line around 08/09 which would scupper the short Cable positions. I hope not

 

[trendie]

my secret method of making the market drop - predict an elliott-wave rise.
works 61.8% of the time.

 

[coolTrader]

Cable is being spported. It will be interesting to see if it will break the high. But we are still awaiting the Philadelphia Fed Survey at 5. Looks like we are in for a long wait for any move...

 

[wasp]

Think I'll go back to my Scandic friends.......

 

[KTD]

Think I'll go back to my Scandic friends.......

Which ones m8?