Currency trading (December 4th > 8th)

[Offshore Trader]

oanda - widening from 2.8 to 5, to 15 and now at 5....bless 'em. Back to 2.8 after 4 mins.

Presumably that means your chance of getting stopped out increases dramatically? If your stop was at say 80 normally mid price 78.6 would be required to take you out but over the figures/news only 72.5 needed. I don't fancy that, I'd rather risk slippage from the SBs...

My stop moved to -20 now which if taken out would still make it my best opening trade this week

 

[ChowClown]

...yes, it's one of those, pays your money, takes your choice scenarios. Thankfully since 1st July the widening issue hasn't resulted in a single adverse stop out on the BO method....wood touched, ahem.

 

[ChowClown]

...another wad down the drain. Flat. There has definitely been merit in trading with the medium term trend on the BO method of late, would have been far better for my head as well as funds. I'll keep going though as per the plan as backtesting shows Dec as an OK month usually.

 

[Offshore Trader]

Went short again at 61 and now out at breakeven....this is getting very frustrating

 

[Offshore Trader]

And short again at 61 stop b/e

 

[tradewinds]

been short since yesterday, 6/12, at 11.00am. Went short at 1.9654.

 

[Offshore Trader]

And stopped yet again.....

 

[ChowClown]

...have the 61 short order in again, but perhaps too late.

 

[Offshore Trader]

...have the 61 short order in again, but perhaps too late.

I think if we go back to 61 it may be going North but there is the danger we are stuck in a rnage until tomorrow's figures.....actually just seen it's broken lower, which is really frustrating given that I've been short three times and have a negative P&L!

 

[ChowClown]

...oh 'bother' - ah well, i guess it's down to 600 at least now to set up the next buy cycle. Vebo back in the bag for me today. Will attempt to join in again on the next decent hrly set up.

 

[breadman]

bigger picture we could get to 193.50 over the next couple of weeks before it has a go at 200.00. We broke out from a rising wedge ( May to November ) so it's likely to hook back to test from above.

breadman

 

[jacinto]

hi fish, looking at the daily and as a scenario only, this could just end up being a bull flag waiting for NFP to break it.

edit: sorry, wrong chart, now replaced

bull flag still alive, and that 23% fib is a tough mark to break.
on the other hand, there hasn't been a single 60 min close below 9630, and this could signal a descending triangle.

wait until tomorrow, and or trade the "channel"

bias is still for break north unless NFP has a big surprise.

 

[Fish]

bull flag still alive, and that 23% fib is a tough mark to break.
on the other hand, there hasn't been a single 60 min close below 9630, and this could signal a descending triangle.

wait until tomorrow, and or trade the "channel"

bias is still for break north unless NFP has a big surprise.

and I thought yesterday was a finger trapping kind of day!

Missed the break of the hourly this morning, and been sat on my hands since then. Nasty nasty action. It is looking like a base may be forming between Fridays low, around 9620/30 and 9710. The 2B push off the bottom didn't have enough power to get beyond the descending trend line at 9710, so currently stalemate.

 

[Offshore Trader]

I think the problem is that tomorrow we could see some really sharp spikes when the figures are released, which will take out all sorts of stops. I am going to reduce the stakes tomorrow which probably means I will get it exactly correct!

 

[City Bound]

Interesting comment by 4Cast:

* 07 Dec 06: 14:51(LDN) - FX NOW! GBP/USD, EUR/GBP Flows - GBP weighed down by redemption concerns, not much longer

GBP has softened on the day despite the solid news from Halifax on house prices and the ongoing belief that though the BoE's MPC left rates unchanged, they are ready to push rates higher in Feb. GBP is being held back by concerns about what investors may do with the GBP16 bln in Gilt redemptions and coupon payments effective today. Outright comments regarding flows have been minimal. Technically, GBP/USD is due to find support at 1.9625 and then 1.9595. EUR/GBP's range is not likely to expand beyond resistance at 0.6775 and support at 0.6750. M.B.



I'm hoping they're right as I've got a position trade @ 636 and have seen it come back twice now.

 

[jacinto]

Interesting comment by 4Cast:

* 07 Dec 06: 14:51(LDN) - FX NOW! GBP/USD, EUR/GBP Flows - GBP weighed down by redemption concerns, not much longer

GBP has softened on the day despite the solid news from Halifax on house prices and the ongoing belief that though the BoE's MPC left rates unchanged, they are ready to push rates higher in Feb. GBP is being held back by concerns about what investors may do with the GBP16 bln in Gilt redemptions and coupon payments effective today. Outright comments regarding flows have been minimal. Technically, GBP/USD is due to find support at 1.9625 and then 1.9595. EUR/GBP's range is not likely to expand beyond resistance at 0.6775 and support at 0.6750. M.B.



I'm hoping they're right as I've got a position trade @ 636 and have seen it come back twice now.

if eurgbp breaks 6775, then

http://www.dailywav.com/0800/kansasbyebye.wav

 

[City Bound]

Then it'll turn into an inactive link?..... :cheesy:

 

[jacinto]

Then it'll turn into an inactive link?..... :cheesy:

http://www.dailywav.com/0105/wishluck.wav

 

[City Bound]

Yeah, sorry, link's still not working. Although I think I get your point(s) by just reading them.

 

[ChowClown]

...removed from their server by the looks of it.