CTAinvesor Market Analysis

14:05CET

Technically speaking, we've finally come to terms with the usual 'Monday' status, and the USD has staged a good comeback, hitting hard against the EUR, GBP and AUD, precisely the currencies that had put a bigger threat to the USD earlier in the morning. The EUR/USD has hit extreme OS territory in 15m charts and a bounce is more than likely from current 1.3650, so buying here is good, selling any upticks thereafter as the overall USD picture remains rather bullish.
 
GBP/USD - our intraday target for shorts met (suggested trade of the day), longs now with 1.5920 stop suggested.

14:54CET

As we test key short-term support line in 1hr chart @ 1.5945, break below should see stops being triggered and an accelerated move south.
 
At the Close. Violent USD reaction....fishy.

18:05CET

Well, it turned out to be more than just a classic Monday, with the USD making very strong gains vs the EUR, pushing it beyond extreme OS territory in 15m charts, and hitting OS territory in 1hr chart, in what I call it a 'too much, too fast' move, which does not leave a good taste as I write this closing post.

That, coupled with the fact that the Aussie and Cable are still holding respective support lines (short-term), makes the EUR move a rather unique situation, which can be attributed to Ireland or whatever you want to use as an excuse, but that technically puts the USD in a complicated situation, and I definitely do not recommend any EUR/USD shorts unless we hit the high 1.36's again, else the situation is risky.

The Swissy broke its short term resistance line @ 0.9915, and had a minor follow-through, but the EUR/CHF crash made it not move as high as one would've expected. Let's pay attention to that 0.99 level in this pair, for a new losing of it might spar a new round of USD selling, which, as you know, and for the sake of a healthy move, I would more than welcome.

As you can see in the retail positioning below, AUD longs have increased (good for shorting the pair, I still aim @ 0.96 mid-term on that one, so shorting and keeping a full stop above 1.02 with that target in mind is recommended for mid-term players -only-), but still Euro and Cable longs are the minority, which makes today's moves even more fishy, so do not overexpose yourselves with USD longs from here.

Also very interesting to know that Gold failed again to break back above the broken support line off $1,150 (a dynamic resistance line that was coming today @ $1,363), and we saw the unit fall $20 after that, confirming that $1,315 should be next, forming that H&S pattern along the way and targeting $1,220 mid-term (very bearish on this unit I am!).

That's it for today, long/short retail ratio from brokerages below. I'm Tony Juste, thanks for watching this blog, and remember, being with investors-europe.com will give you the chance to have my intraday trading ideas for free.

Nov 22, 2010 18:00 GMT+0100

1. USD/JPY
74.62% 25.38%
2. XAU/USD
73.29% 26.71%
3. USD/CHF
71.39% 28.61%
4. USD/CAD
62.37% 37.63%
5. AUD/USD
52.75% 47.25%
6. EUR/USD
48.53% 51.47%
7. GBP/USD
44.22% 55.78%
 
At the Open. Usual Tuesday ahead? Not likely...

09:15CET

Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. Heavy losses for AUD and EUR at the start of the day, particularly at a time when one would've least expected them to happen, i.e, at a time when Gold is again up for the day (although it has not broken the dynamic resistance line @ $1,365, from where I recommend shorts), and GBP is not 'falling' that much. The USD remains the favorite currency these days, and we've even seen new short-term highs in USD/JPY, as the unit printed 83.70 overnight. The EUR/CHF crash has put some brakes to the general USD/CHF advance, but overall the picture looks quite clear for the greenback.

On dailies, the reversal pattern seen yesterday in EUR/USD is not only targeting 1.3435 again, it is leading us to believe that the 61.8% of the last upleg, situated @ 1.3260, might just print sooner rather than later, and that's a fact. We have the unit with some positive divergences at this hour and it is Tuesday, so in other occasions I would've just issued a buy recommendation; not this time. Blame it on Ireland (that's the new game now...) or whatever you want, but even on a clear long call like the one I'm seeing on the screens at the moment I will not go with it, and rather sell rallies....even on a Tuesday.

Before closing this opening post, let me give you how retail traders are positioning themselves at this hour on brokerages. Long/Short ratio provided below. As you can see, short AUD/USD is the best thing to do for now, and the 0.96 target remains in place.

Nov 23, 2010 09:20 GMT+0100

1. USD/JPY
75.21% 24.79%
2. XAU/USD
74.12% 25.88%
3. USD/CHF
70.91% 29.09%
4. USD/CAD
61.54% 38.46%
5. AUD/USD
52.30% 47.70%
6. EUR/USD
47.17% 52.83%
7. GBP/USD
43.21% 56.79%
 
TRADE IDEA: Short Gold here @ $1,365, stop $1,380, target $1,340 (sent @ 09:15CET via Twitter - ctainvestor)
 
Extreme levels for the day

10:15CET

The levels are based on 1hr charts and are only valid for the day. OB means overbought and OS means oversold. These levels are indication of possible turning points or at least levels where the prevailing trend might be halted, ideal for fast contra-trading. In my twitter page (twitter.com/ctainvestor) I update the levels as we go (as they are dynamics but basically what you see here is more or less what stands for the day unless dramatic moves are seen). Also, if you open an account with investors-europe.com, you can get my technical help there as well.

EUR/USD - extreme OB 1.3730 - extreme OS 1.3464
GBP/USD - extreme OB 1.6048 - extreme OS 1.5829
USD/JPY - extreme OB 83.877 - extreme OS 82.935
USD/CHF - extreme OB 0.9977 - extreme OS 0.9812
AUD/USD - extreme OB 0.9967 - extreme OS 0.9741
 
DAILY FX TRADING TIPS

11:15CET

The following strategies are valid for the current day only, and are based on prices not yet hit when the tip is released, so we’re basically working with limit orders. Once the trigger has been activated and either stop or limit have been hit, trade is no longer valid. End of day should see all positions squared regardless of price.

DATE: TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 23, 2010

PAIR ACTION ENTRY STOP LIMIT
EUR/USD SELL 1.3620 1.3650 1.3520
EURUSD BUY 1.3520 1.3490 1.3580
GBP/USD SELL 1.5970 1.6030 1.5870
USD/JPY BUY 83.10 82.40 83.90
USD/CHF BUY 0.9870 0.9830 0.9970
USD/CHF SELL 0.9925 0.9965 0.9870
 
The End Of The Dollar Carry Trade? Presenting The Dollar Short Panic In A Burning Theater
17:57CET

Very interesting piece in ZeroHedge.com

After it became fashionable to say one was short the dollar at cocktail parties, the net result was a surge in CFTC-reported spec USD gross short positions and a plunge in net USD exposure. And since options traders are nothing but momentum chasing lemmings the theater is now fully on fire. Granted, while some of the recent spike in short interest has been covered, there are still just over a whopping 7.5k contract shorts that need to be covered before a reversion to the recent trendline. This is why we are currently seeing a massive unwind in the dollar short carry trade, and why once again rumors that macro funds are slowly and quietly receiving billions in margin calls behind the scenes.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/en...presenting-dollar-short-panic-burning-theater
 
The irony of long-term chart reading

18:34CET

I was just going through the long-term charts, i.e, weeklies, and just realized USD/JPY confirmed a bullish singal at the close of last week @ 83.50....ironic, isn't it? Today's capitulation by the JPY crosses, and particularly EUR/JPY was not on cards surely on those longer-term chart readings...anyway, this is the FX market.
 
At the Close. Capitulation.

20:05CET

I just waited for the release of the FOMC minutes to see if we would have some kind of market change, but that did not prove to be the case. What an outrageous day. EUR/JPY capitualtion via EUR/USD big sell-off and USD/JPY tanking is rather unprecedented in recent history (recent months, I mean) and that's what has shocked me the most today. The extreme levels that are usually a big guidance for spotting counter-trend moves have all been violated with an ease long time no seen, at least on my end. What will come after this, I honestly don't know, but the EUR is in extreme OS (oversold) mode vs USD and JPY, and that is a fact. Of course the market does not care what my techs say, but I'm reporting this fact to you and it will take quite some effort to look at the EUR not in an oversold state after today's capitulation. SHort-term, first level in a hypothetical recovery in EUR/JPY should be the printing of 111.45, first retracement of today's big sell-off, although it would need much more to return to normality, as I said.

The USD, in the other hand, made nice but steady progress vs AUD, GBP and CHF, lost vs JPY (crazy currency of the day, again), and particularly interesting, lost the broken line (now dynamic resistance line) vs Gold ($1,365), as we find the unit trading @ $1,377 now, still with the head-and-shoulders pattern intact, but within reaching distance of being dismissed if the unit break $1,385-90.

As for the FOMC minutes, here's what they said:

Fed discussed even more unconventional measures in Oct: Minutes

* Discussed targeting bond yields, price targeting in October video conference
* Saw risks from targeting yields

Link to text (full): http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20101103.htm
Link to Downgraded forecasts: http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20101103ep.htm

Before calling it a day, here's how retail traders are positioning themselves in FX brokers. Long/short ratio below. Please note how AUD and EUR longs have increased, the USD looks very good there; however, still shocking to see so many Swissy longs (so many money makers outhere?) and Cable shorts). I'm Tony Juste, thanks for watching my space on the web. Stay tuned with CTAinvestor.com or Twitter.com/CTAinvestor to real-time market trading tips or get them delivered if you open with investors-europe.com.

Nov 23, 2010 20:00 GMT+0100

1. USD/JPY
75.91% 24.09%
2. XAU/USD
72.10% 27.90%
3. USD/CHF
69.15% 30.85%
4. USD/CAD
58.88% 41.12%
5. AUD/USD
53.97% 46.03%
6. EUR/USD
53.91% 46.09%
7. GBP/USD
45.41% 54.59%
 
At the Open. The gold direction.

09:10CET

Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. The US Thanksgiving break usually reduces volumes and makes trading ranges rather tight; however, and particularly in the FX case, since it is London the place that dominates volumes, it has not proven to be so. After the EUR capitulation of two days ago, things seem to have eased down at first. There is one instrument though that can set the pace for the next USD move: Gold.

The unit is forming a very clear H&S pattern, and the latest dip sub $1,370 puts it back below the key support line it has been trying to regain for the last 4-6 trading days. The neckline of this move is found around $1,325-15, and a clear break of the level exposes a fast selloff towards $1,250 at least, which would make things look rather bright for the USD.

In the currency front, very little to add, except that AUD/USD, given its recent strength, is the best vehicle for going long USD at the moment, with the 0.96 target discussed earlier in this blog still valid.

To conclude this opening post, let me give you how retail traders are positioning themselves at this hour. Note that all 3 majors EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD are now in majority of LONGS, which makes USD progress far more easy than before, hope the USD/CHF will turn the tide as well soon.

Nov 25, 2010 09:00 GMT+0100

1. USD/JPY
73.04% 26.96%
2. XAU/USD
71.14% 28.86%
3. USD/CHF
68.38% 31.62%
4. USD/CAD
66.86% 33.14%
5. EUR/USD
53.50% 46.50%
6. AUD/USD
50.27% 49.73%
7. GBP/USD
50.24% 49.76%
 
At the Close.Thanksgiving sleep.

17:55CET

A non-market today that served the EUR to gain vs the USD close to 1.34, profiting from non-existent volatility and even so less liquidity. The unit looks now better than yesterday, but selling strength into the 1.34's looks like a good strategy to me. USD/CHF ran above 1.0 again, but the bearish technical signals paid off and our short strategy for the day paid decent pips despite the tight ranges. Very little less that I can add at this point, as I have no real interest in GBP or AUD at these levels, and USD/JPY is above a magnet line when it should be below, so nothing interesting happening there as well. A point to note, EUR/JPY is trading @ 111.80 after the capitulation 2 days ago, and I feel we will see the 112 mark soon again.

Before calling it a day, please find below the long/short retail ratio @ brokerages. Note that EUR longs keep increasing, which should put more pressure on the unit rather soon again. I'm Tony Juste, thanks for watching my blog, sponsored by www.investors-europe.com.

Nov 25, 2010 17:40 GMT+0100

1. USD/JPY
74.10% 25.90%
2. XAU/USD
71.28% 28.72%
3. USD/CHF
68.90% 31.10%
4. USD/CAD
66.70% 33.30%
5. EUR/USD
53.01% 46.99%
6. AUD/USD
49.75% 50.25%
7. GBP/USD
47.56% 52.44%
 
At the Open. Reversal in place?

09:25CET

Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. The end of the week brought fast and furious gains for the USD, who threatened to break major lines vs the majors, for example, 1.0050 vs CHF, 1.3185-90 vs EUR and 1.5585 vs GBP. Today we had a repetition of such threats as the Dollar progressed even beyond those limits in a very volatile overnight session, but those gains quickly evaporated as technicals ruled and so now we have an easier situation for the majors from a technical point of view, although some of them still not out of the woods yet. Important to highlight the fact that AUD hit sub-0.96 levels, printing our mid-term target rather fast, just to see things reversing in line with the other majors.

I do feel we've seen quite a lot of improvement by the USD, but the speed with which this has taken place suggests we are in need of a pause, and although Mondays are not traditionally the days where the USD sees losses, the initial comeback by the majors suggests that we may be in for a price reversal, or at least no more USD gains for the time being. Selling USD rallies is the preferred strategy for today.

Before concluding this opening post, here's the long/short % positioning by retail traders at retail brokerages at this hour.

Nov 29, 2010 09:40 GMT+0100

1. USD/JPY
74.49% 25.51%
2. XAU/USD
69.94% 30.06%
3. USD/CHF
69.57% 30.43%
4. USD/CAD
61.14% 38.86%
5. AUD/USD
52.24% 47.76%
6. EUR/USD
51.38% 48.62%
7. GBP/USD
47.81% 52.19%
 
DAILY FX TRADING TIPS

09:45CET

The following strategies are valid for the current day only, and are based on prices not yet hit when the tip is released, so we’re basically working with limit orders. Once the trigger has been activated and either stop or limit have been hit, trade is no longer valid. End of day should see all positions squared regardless of price.

DATE: MONDAY, NOVEMBER 29, 2010

PAIR ACTION ENTRY STOP LIMIT
EUR/USD SELL 1.3350 1.3410 1.3260
EURUSD BUY 1.3180 1.3140 1.3250
GBP/USD SELL 1.5650 1.5710 1.5470
GBP/USD BUY 1.5570 1.5510 1.5650
USD/JPY BUY 83.60 82.90 84.30
USD/JPY SELL 84.20 85.00 82.90
USD/CHF BUY 0.9950 0.9920 1.0030
USD/CHF SELL 1.0025 1.0075 0.9930
 
Extreme levels for the day

10:15CET

The levels are based on 1hr charts and are only valid for the day. OB means overbought and OS means oversold. These levels are indication of possible turning points or at least levels where the prevailing trend might be halted, ideal for fast contra-trading. In my twitter page (twitter.com/ctainvestor) I update the levels as we go (as they are dynamics but basically what you see here is more or less what stands for the day unless dramatic moves are seen). Also, if you open an account with investors-europe.com, you can get my technical help there as well.

EUR/USD - extreme OB 1.3374 - extreme OS 1.3111
GBP/USD - extreme OB 1.5714 - extreme OS 1.5495
USD/JPY - extreme OB 84.527 - extreme OS 83.565
USD/CHF - extreme OB 1.0085 - extreme OS 0.9944
AUD/USD - extreme OB 0.9761 - extreme OS 0.9532
 
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