Technical Analysis On Major Currencies / Commodities By FXNET

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The US commerce department said that Gross domestic product (GDP) increased at a 1.5 percent annual rate after expanding 3.9 percent in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. Economists however expect growth to pick up in the fourth quarter given strong domestic fundamentals.

The number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending October 24 increased by 1,000 to 260,000 from the previous week’s total of 259,000. Analysts had expected jobless claims to rise by 4,000 to 263,000.

USD/JPY was 0.16 percent lower at 120.89, USD/CAD was almost unchanged at 1.3238. The pair was expected to find support at 1.3085 and resistance at 1.3334.
Following the releases EUR/USD added 0.19 percent to 1.0941.

GBP/USD was at 1.5256, USD/CHF lost 0.29 percent to 0.9914. A report by the Bank of England showed that the total net lending to individuals increased by 4.9 billion pounds last month more than the expected 4.4 billion pounds.

AUD/USD lost 0.40 percent falling to 0.7089 and NZD/USD lost 0.12 percent to 0.6694.

The US dollar index which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies was steady at 97.61.

Following the releases EUR/USD added 0.19 percent to 1.0941.

EUR/CAD was 0.10 percent higher to 1.4425.

Crude oil for December delivery lost 1.34 percent on the New York Mercantile Exchange during European morning hours on Thursday, Brent oil for December delivery on the ICE Futures Exchange lost 1.15 percent to 48.48 dollars a barrel.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said that crude inventories were higher by 3.37 million barrels a week, and gasoline inventories decreased by 1.1 million barrels compared to expectations for a decline of 0.9 million barrels. Distillate stockpiles fell by 0.3 million barrels.

Gold for December delivery on the Comex of the New York Mercantile Exchange lost 1.88 percent trading at 1,154.000 dollars a troy ounce.

 

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Greenback Sentiment Shaky after Job Reports
On Monday, the Australian and New Zealand dollars fell against the US dollar as the dollar stayed fragile after Friday’s U.S jobs report.
AUD/USD slipped 0.42% to 0.7406, after moving up to its eight-month highs of 0.7445 on Friday.

According to the Labor Department, the US economy added 242,000 new jobs last month, exceeding expectations for wage growth of 190,000.

The unemployment rate remained at an eight-year low of 4.9%, in line with forecasts.

Average hourly earnings went lower by 0.1% during February, below a 0.5% reading in January. The decrease in average earnings lowered the annual gain in incomes to 2.2% from 2.5% in January. As a result, consumer inflation is likely to stay muted. Federal Reserve policymakers are keeping an eye on inflation while they are trying to decide when to raise rates again.

NZD/USD fell 0.56% to 0.6779, off Friday’s two-month peak of 0.6822.

Investors kept focusing on the oil market, as prices went above $36 a barrel, a first since January 6.
The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six other major currencies, was up 0.19% at 97.43.

 

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AUSSIE REMAINS STEADY, GREENBACK GAINS
Chinese trade data still pressuring markets
Following the release of Australian consumer sentiment data, the aussie was slightly changed on Wednesday, as the kiwi slid down among worldwide concerns.

Markets were broadly affected by low Chinese trade data, which on Tuesday showed that china’s exports fell 24.4% instead of expectations of a 12.5% decrease, China being one of the world’s biggest importers tends to rattle markets when disappointing data comes through.

AUD/USD was trading at 0.7431.

According to The Westpac Banking Corporation, Australia’s consumer sentiment declined 2.2% in March, after a 4.2% rise last month.

Another report showed that home loans fell 3.9% in January, much higher than initial expectations of a 2.3% decline. A revised figure showed that December home loans had gained 2.7%, instead of the initially reported 2.6% gain.

NZD/USD fell 0.21% to trade at 0.7431, investors are looking ahead to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) interest rate decision, expected on Thursday.

Later in the day the RBNZ will release its Official Cash Rate, and Monetary Policy Statement followed by a press conference and a speech by Governor Wheeler.

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six other major currencies, was up 0.21% at 97.36, off the last session’s two-week low of 96.89.

The US will release wholesale inventories month on month later today.

 

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ECB CUTS INTEREST RATES TO A RECORD LOW

Euro dips as markets react to ECB decisions – USD seen higher

The greenback gained against the euro as markets reeled in the aftermath of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision to cut interest rates, and comments by ECB president Mario Draghi.

The euro saw a sharp decline following ECB announcements, EUR/USD lost 0.16 percent to 1.1161 from the previous session’s high of 1.1217. EUR/GBP lost 0.14 percent to 0.7816.

Markets were broadly affected when the ECB announced its decision to cut interest rates across the Eurozone to a new record low of zero from its previously held level of 0.05 percent. The bank also cut the deposit facility rate deeper into negative territory to minus 0.4 percent and cut the marginal lending rate cut to 0.24 percent from 3.30 percent.

The ECB also increased its quantitative easing program from 20 billion dollars per month to 80 billion, a decision which will be implemented in April.

Draghi told reporters in a news conference “Rates will stay low, very low, for a long period of time and well past the horizon of our purchases. From today’s perspective and taking into account the support of our measures to growth and inflation, we don’t anticipate that it will be necessary to reduce rates further”.

The US dollar on the other hand was supported by a positive job report released by the Department of Labour which showed that the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending 5th of March was lower by 18,000 to 295,000 from the previous week’s total of 277,000.

After indications that a further rate hike will not happen any time soon, recent data has set the market back on track with the Fed’s overall outlook and returned the possibility of a rate hike in the near future.

"Financial markets for a while were completely out in the weeds, running around looking at things that turned out not to be real risk," said Torsten Slok, chief international economist at Deutsche Bank.

Fed policymakers meet on March 15th and 16th. They are expected to hold interest rates steady and are seen likely nudging down their expectations to three hikes for 2016.

 

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AUSSIE FALLS LOWER AGAINST US DOLLAR, KIWI REMAINS STEADY

The Aussie fell against the US dollar this Wednesday, as the kiwi remained steady while investors looked forward to the Federal Reserve’s policy decision later on Wednesday.

AUD/USD fell 0.15% to 0.7447.

Investors anticipated the outcome of the Fed’s policy meeting later in the day, as it was expected that there will be no change since there were signs of weakness in global economy. Furthermore, investors awaited the release of US housing sector and inflation reports for further signs on the growth of the economy.

NZD/USD was little changed at 0.6605.

The greenback slipped following the US Commerce Department’s report last week which showed a decline in retail sales and producer prices the previous month.

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six other major currencies, was up 0.20% at 96.85.

 

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OIL PRICES LOWER FOLLOWING HIGHER RIG COUNT

Markets anticipating an OPEC meeting

On Monday, oil prices prolonged losses from the previous session in European trade, following the first US rig count rise since December, raising concerns about the supply glut.

Crude oil for April delivery lost 72 cents on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) trading at 39.47 dollars a barrel by 09:50 GMT.

Oil has been struggling with supply exceeding demand, the decline in rig count in previous weeks helped the commodity gain some of its lost value, while the increase in rig count this week took back some of the gains.

Brent for May lost 40 cents on the ICE futures exchange in London, falling to 40.80 dollars a barrel.

Last week oil prices had jumped higher following five weeks of gains prompted by a decline in US shale production, Brent futures had added 2.01 percent last week after four weeks of gains.

The oil market is still expecting oil producers, both OPEC (organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) and non-OPEC, to convene and reach a decision to control output. According to Qatari oil minister Mohammad Bin Saleh Al-Sada, a meeting is schedule in Doha on the 17th of April, for over 20 producers, who will account for 73 percent of global oil production.