CTAinvesor Market Analysis

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ctainvestor

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09:08CET
Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. The USD is the main loser at the start of the trading day, with severe losses against the Euro, which is rallying way past the second Fibo fight of the last downleg @ 1.3520, currently trading @ 1.3630, and a bit overstretched in my opinion.The level we're in right now marks the first important dynamic resistance intraday, and opening shorts with 1.3655 stop is not a bad idea, despite the dark side forces interests of sending the USD t hell (yet again).

Cable is going the same way although to a less extent than the EUR as the single currency is the main market dominant player at the moment. As said, Cable is hovering around 1.5875 as I write this, finding itself in the first important dynamic resistance of the day.

The Swissy is again very close to its all-time lows set yesterday @ 0.9733, so not much to talk about a pair that is in free fall and needs some stimulus before being called a major again. Trying longs around this level and putting a stop if recent lows break might be just a good idea for fast pips.

I'm not commenting on the Yen as I find it stupid at the moment. And neither will I comment on the damned and zero-technical Gold chart, which, oh surprise, made a new all-time high a second ago trading just around $1,315/oz.
 
At the Open. Time to roll the USD-buying.

09:10CET

Good morning everyone from CTAinvestor.com, hope you are fine. Things are heating up in USD's favor. Yesterday, I told you about the upcoming EUR/USD collapse (or sell-off), due to the fact that a very clear DIAMOND PATTERN on dailies broke the lower line @ 1.3820, and prices failed to regain that line twice, meaning that at least 1.35 is next. Also, at the same time, Gold is just about to complete a very nice H&S pattern on the 4hr chart, targeting at least 1,250-60 once 1,310 neckline gives way, so I'd suggest a sell-stop order below the neckline and go with the flow.

Because that is what has to be done. Go with the flow. And going against losers, or at least not to be part of them, and with losers I mean retailers, who are beginning to show net USD short positions, for example in AUD/USD (minim target there is 0.95, so go for it and stop thinking the unit goes to parity again). Another cross that has shifted momentum is EUR/GBP, going net EUR long, which means 0.85-0.84 at least is next now.

Here's how losers (retail traders) are positioning themselves at this hour. As you can see, EUR/USD is about to shift from net short to net long, and this is going to be a massive move for a 1.35-1.33 move. Also interesting to note that, despite today's -so far- decline, the number of USD/JPY longs are beginning to decrease, and oh well, if that one changes as well, we are talking of a big trend shift, of possible some 300-500 pips, in what is going to be a mid-term momentum shift. So my advice to you now, stop selling the USD, don't be that part of the loser-retailers and start looking for long opportunities on the greenback, now that all the monopoly QE2 talk is gone and will have no real effect in the market.

1. AUD/USD
52.11% 47.89%
2. EUR/CHF
58.88% 41.12%
3. EUR/GBP
56.45% 43.55%
4. EUR/JPY
53.91% 46.09%
5. EUR/USD
47.48% 52.52%
6. GBP/JPY
58.82% 41.18%
7. GBP/USD
42.19% 57.81%
8. USD/CAD
55.32% 44.68%
9. USD/CHF
70.33% 29.67%
10. USD/JPY
76.86% 23.14%

Oct 28, 2010 09:00 GMT+0200
Reading: %LONG / %SHORT
 
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At the Close. Very much not what I expected, and you?

18:14CET

Well, it's not that I will say it's been a disappointing day....but a very disappointing day indeed. Not because of the lack of progress by the USD... one may expect that, particularly when watching at USD/CHF and USD/JPY retail positioning, but not in Euro or AUD, where we were seeing some big momentum shift, even change to net long in AUD/USD, which has not served the cause of a better move by the USD, rather the contrary.

I don't like excuses and hate when someone blames this or that for what is happening, I just can't stand that. Today it was a USD-selling day. Period. But technically speaking, and even from a contrarian point of view, it was not a justified move, but that's what the market is, a big box of surprises.

Technically, again, anything in the mid 1.59s is a good short in Cable, anything in the 0.98s is good short in the AUD and anything above 1.39 bodes well for a short in Euro. Whether they will turn out to be monster trades, I honestly have a bit more reserves than in the morning, when I saw the H&S in AUD and Gold printing to perfection, and ready to make the units tank...but now with Gold @ 1,343, testing a key dynamic resistance line, it's kind of a moot point to go over my 'pattern predictions' again. However, if Gold does not break 1,345-50 we may still have a cause for a better USD move....that would be lovely.

Before leaving, here's how retailers are positioning themselves at this hour (I hate to see the AUD back to net short....).

Oct 28, 2010 18:00 GMT+0200
READING: %LONG // %SHORT

1. AUD/USD
49.92% 50.08%
2. EUR/CHF
57.40% 42.60%
3. EUR/GBP
53.32% 46.68%
4. EUR/JPY
54.76% 45.24%
5. EUR/USD
43.63% 56.37%
6. GBP/JPY
60.74% 39.26%
7. GBP/USD
34.82% 65.18%
8. USD/CAD
60.25% 39.75%
9. USD/CHF
73.11% 26.89%
10. USD/JPY
80.14% 19.86%

I'm Tony Juste, thanks for watching this blog. I look forward to your company tomorrow.
 
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At the Open. A good month-end close for the USD?

09:23CET

Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. Techs have worked well overnight and the majors have retreated well off their highs, and Gold has not been able to break 1,345 on the upside, which is a good signal that the right shoulder of the H&S pattern in the 4hr chart still may be considered valid.

The mid 1.59 level was a good one to short Cable, and so it was anything above 1.39 in EUR/USD or anything above 0.98 in Aussie, as I yesterday pointed out in my closing post. Technical reasoning lay behind what I stated, and I feel that today Cable should be the one falling the most against the other majors, as the unit has been underpinned so far by EUR/GBP sell-off, but in an scenario of further Euro falling, the GBP should follow as well.

I definitely think we are far from over in this new round of USD buying, and we've just seen a bit of it, so I guerss we might be seeing some real fireworks today ahead of the monthly close.

This is how retail traders (losers) are positioning themselves at the moment (I hope the AUD positioning shifts for good soon, hate to see it negative....)

Oct 29, 2010 09:20 GMT+0200
READING %LONG // %SHORT

1. AUD/USD
47.42% 52.58%
2. EUR/CHF
58.09% 41.91%
3. EUR/GBP
52.26% 47.74%
4. EUR/JPY
57.85% 42.15%
5. EUR/USD
40.49% 59.51%
6. GBP/JPY
63.20% 36.80%
7. GBP/USD
31.14% 68.86%
8. USD/CAD
61.85% 38.15%
9. USD/CHF
74.41% 25.59%
10. USD/JPY
81.66% 18.34%
 
Today's technical game so far......

11:10CET

The funny tech story so far this morning is that JPY stength means EUR and GBP losses, and JPY selling means EUR and GBP recovery. Funny? Not that much, but you know, that's what the market likes to play and is playing it.....

EUR/USD hit extreme OS territory @ 1.3820 and has bounced a bit, looking for 1.3850-60 to re-start shorts, I don't feel the unit will finish the month above 1.38.
 
FX retailers' positioning at this hour

11:40CET

This is how things stand at this hour, hopefully AUD/USD shorts will leave parity in favor of longs soon, and a USD propelling across the board will be seen. By the way, Gold's right shoulder of the H&S mentioned in 4hr chart keeps forming, has not been negated, and if we see the unit below 1,330 we may have some real fireworks. We are talking of a major mid-term shift here.

Oct 29, 2010 11:20 GMT+0200
READING: %SHORTS-%LONGS
1. AUD/USD
48.53% 51.47%
2. EUR/CHF
59.06% 40.94%
3. EUR/GBP
46.62% 53.38%
4. EUR/JPY
60.05% 39.95%
5. EUR/USD
41.61% 58.39%
6. GBP/JPY
62.90% 37.10%
7. GBP/USD
35.17% 64.83%
8. USD/CAD
61.46% 38.54%
9. USD/CHF
75.93% 24.07%
10. USD/JPY
82.02% 17.98%
 
At the Close. The bittersweet symphony.

18:00CET

The tenth month of the year comes to an end with a really bad taste in my mouth. I believe I can now call off (although I'd need a move above 1,355 to complete my disappointment) my Gold H&S call (4hr chart), and that is to my greatest disappointment, as I would've expected some kiind of fireworks today and a nice month-end close for the USD. But it was not meant to be. To complete the bitter part of the story, the USD/JPY attracted a lot of retailers on the long side, now looking for a double bottom around 80.40, and that is pushing the unit to test recent lows again, not really letting the monopoly-greenback to raise properly. Add to that the very much negative thing of again seeing AUD/USD and EUR/USD shorts piling up in the losers' side, and that means short squeezes every now and then.

But let's switch to the sweet part of this month-end symphony. The MONTHLY CHART of USD/CHF is showing a big reversal hammer candle, which should be supportive of my view of at least this pair going back above parity, and staying there for a while. Add as a supporting factor the still valid diamond pattern in EUR/USD, with top of the last part @ 1.4030 and support @ 1.3750, so a break of the support is needed for the low 1.30s on the long run to be seen. As I said earlier, if the USD/JPY positioning (and AUD!) would shift to negative USD, that would create the base for a double bottom, and certainly would mark a real base for the USD.

All in all, I have to say that there were days in this October where I felt the USD would really tank to hell, but it managed to survive on a technical basis, and who knows, the 2 months left to complete this 2010 may bring us some surprises to the upside. But first, losers need to shift positions, something they marginally did this week (and we saw how good it was for the greeny-backy), but that did not last long. Best wishes for the upcoming November, especially if you are one of those gutsy technical traders that resist to accept the official monopoly-greeny view. Also, let's not forget the big event for November, apart from the usual NFP-day, which is taking place on the 3rd of the month, when the helicopter of the Fed will fly over all of us traders and will unleash its final decision on QE2 (bond buying program)....the market is going to go crazy after the event, there's little doubt about that.

Before leaving, here's how things are ahead of the monthly close when it comes to losers' (retailers) positioning:

Oct 29, 2010 18:00 GMT+0200
READING: %LONG/%SHORT

1. AUD/USD
48.52% 51.48%
2. EUR/CHF
58.55% 41.45%
3. EUR/GBP
47.00% 53.00%
4. EUR/JPY
60.79% 39.21%
5. EUR/USD
42.85% 57.15%
6. GBP/JPY
63.01% 36.99%
7. GBP/USD
36.46% 63.54%
8. USD/CAD
60.66% 39.34%
9. USD/CHF
74.50% 25.50%
10. USD/JPY
82.65% 17.35%

I'm Tony Juste, CMA of CTAinvestor.com and www.twitter.com/ctainvestor . Thanks for being there, I look forward to seeing you all again next month! (i.e., in 2 days time).
 
At the Open. What was that?

09:20CET

Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. Was it a repetition of the flash crash seen on May 6? Or was it intervention? The latter has been denied by the touted officials (BoJ and MoF, of course), therefore this must've been some little machines conspiring together to crash the market. Indeed, prices went from 1.3975 to 1,3895 in EUR/USD, from 1.6070 to 1.5985 in Cable, from 0.9820 to 0.9880 in the Swissy and (drumbeats....) from 80.10 to 81.50 in USD/JPY! The third, and most likely version of what happened refers to an option-protected barrier @ 80 by China, who would make a killing if that level is not breached, therefore using everything they can to protect the level.

Be it China, the outer space or a monkey computer, the fact is that this start of the week tells us the way things could go till Friday, i.e., very nervous markets all over the place. Let's not forget we have Fed's QE2 later in the week and the usual NFP of the first Friday f the month to conclude it; a very volatile week ahead of us, surely.

Last on this post, the usual recap of how retail losers are positioning at this hour....not nice to see so many USD longs around, but who knows, things ca changed rapidly in a nervous market. Besides, Monday is usually a USD-buying day......

Nov 1, 2010 09:20 GMT+0100
READING: %LONG/%SHORT

1. AUD/USD
45.86% 54.14%
2. EUR/CHF
57.14% 42.86%
3. EUR/GBP
49.01% 50.99%
4. EUR/JPY
60.75% 39.25%
5. EUR/USD
38.73% 61.27%
6. GBP/JPY
66.41% 33.59%
7. GBP/USD
33.73% 66.27%
8. USD/CAD
60.33% 39.67%
9. USD/CHF
74.66% 25.34%
10. USD/JPY
84.05% 15.95%
 
Extreme levels for the day

10:42CET

Starting today, I'm going to be providing you with extreme values off a self-made indicator that I believe you'll find very useful as either target levels or counter-trend opportunity levels that you can use for fast pips. The levels are based on 1hr charts and are only valid for the day. OB means overbought and OS means oversold.

EUR/USD - extreme OB 1.4075 - extreme OS 1.3833
GBP/USD - extreme OB 1.6165 - extreme OS 1.5920
USD/JPY - extreme OB 81.160 - extreme OS 79.820
USD/CHF - extreme OB 0.9933 - extreme OS 0.9738
AUD/USD - extreme OB 0.9955 - extreme OS 0.9747

Real-time levels update on twitter www.twitter.com/ctainvestor
 
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FX retailers' positioning at this hour

12:45CET

This is how things stand at this point of the trading day. Needless to say that too many USD longs from the loser's side is no good for the monopoly greenback, which will make the task of those US officials looking to devalue the USD further rather easy......

Nov 1, 2010 12:40 GMT+0100
READING %LONG - %SHORT

1. AUD/USD
45.57% 54.43%
2. EUR/CHF
56.54% 43.46%
3. EUR/GBP
46.78% 53.22%
4. EUR/JPY
58.04% 41.96%
5. EUR/USD
39.06% 60.94%
6. GBP/JPY
66.62% 33.38%
7. GBP/USD
35.81% 64.19%
8. USD/CAD
60.35% 39.65%
9. USD/CHF
74.88% 25.12%
10. USD/JPY
83.79% 16.21%
 
At the Close. Too much noise for nothing...

18:04CET

It was a 'busy' day so to speak with markets flirting with a negative start of the week for the USD, then shifting to a very positive day for the greenback, and finishing the European session in a mixed tone, leaving the uncertainty running further down the road in this eventful week. Technically speaking, the Euro failure to climb back above the first Fibo fan @ 1.40 (broken 3 days ago), is a good sign for the USD, who should attempt the second fan line, situated @ 1.3775 (rising by 10 pips every day). That would also help the greenback vs the AUD and GBP, but there's no need for that help vs the CHF, where we had a very good rise towards 0.9970, before finding itself in extreme OB territory (as reported earlier) and falling back. The situation is not bad for the USD, especially with Gold now below or around 1,350 from 1,365 in the morning, and I stand corrected as it looks like the H&S pattern in the 4hr chart might not be over after all. If that were to be the case, the neckline comes in @ 1,320, and why not? we may still believe in a monster-USD rally ahead.

I finish my posting for today with the usual FX retail-losers positioning, where we see EUR longs above 40% and a bit of a push further down in the pair would definitely shift momentum in the pair, further supporting a mid-term rise in the USD...We will remain vigilant throughout the week.

I'm Tony Juste, thanks for watching this blog. Do not forget to stay tuned to real-time market tips @ www.twitter.com/ctainvestor and trade with best option offshore @ www.investors-europe.com

Nov 1, 2010 18:00 GMT+0100
READING %LONG/%SHORT

1. AUD/USD
43.69% 56.31%
2. EUR/CHF
56.14% 43.86%
3. EUR/GBP
44.26% 55.74%
4. EUR/JPY
59.93% 40.07%
5. EUR/USD
42.84% 57.16%
6. GBP/JPY
66.33% 33.67%
7. GBP/USD
34.12% 65.88%
8. USD/CAD
60.94% 39.06%
9. USD/CHF
74.83% 25.17%
10. USD/JPY
83.42% 16.58%
 
At the Open. It's US...and RBA showtime!

09:10CET

Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. Well, today had to be the day when all (or most) of the price action would be centered around the mid-term elections in the US, implications that such an event will have on the USD, bla bla bla... But we had an unexpected visitor overnight, who decided to join the show as well. Its name: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). It's contribution: to hike 25bps almost to everyone's surprise the country's interest rates and to offer a very upbeat view on Australia's economy. Immediate reaction: AUD/USD has hit parity for the 3rd time in as much weeks, putting the USD under a bit of pressure, although since the Europeans are not very healthy either at the moment, they have utterly failed to capitalize on the data.

Today may mark the shift in US policy direction if Republicans take over the lower house of the US....really? Come on, we're not that naive, are we? We know that today's news, even though important, will mean nothing compared to what tomorrow and Friday will happen, so it's kind of a smoke curtain rather than something for real, although the initial reaction may just seem otherwise.

Technically speaking, I'd prefer to keep shorting EUR vs the USD than any other pair at present as the Euro looks very weak to me, and if any bad news come from the EZ, we might have some fireworks there.

Let me give you how FX retail positioning is looking at this hour:

Nov 2, 2010 08:40 GMT+0100
READING: %LONG / %SHORT - Watch the AUD rise in shorts, pity, yesterday we almost had parity there.....

1. AUD/USD
39.83% 60.17%
2. EUR/CHF
57.38% 42.62%
3. EUR/GBP
46.09% 53.91%
4. EUR/JPY
61.24% 38.76%
5. EUR/USD
43.96% 56.04%
6. GBP/JPY
66.13% 33.87%
7. GBP/USD
36.65% 63.35%
8. USD/CAD
61.23% 38.77%
9. USD/CHF
74.13% 25.87%
10. USD/JPY
83.49% 16.51%
 
Extreme levels for the day

10:42CET

The levels are based on 1hr charts and are only valid for the day. OB means overbought and OS means oversold.

EUR/USD - extreme OB 1.4017 - extreme OS 1.3802 - getting close to OB
GBP/USD - extreme OB 1.6149 - extreme OS 1.5945
USD/JPY - extreme OB 81.115 - extreme OS 80.065
USD/CHF - extreme OB 1.0000 - extreme OS 0.9825 - getting close to OS
AUD/USD - extreme OB 1.0015 - extreme OS 0.9806 - getting close to OB again, IT HAS BEEN THERE 3 TIMES TODAY
 
USD/CHF being hammered - time to buy?

14:51CET

Technically speaking, the unit's tanking has put it not only in very extreme OS level (0.9790 band), but doing it for the 4th time today, just giving an idea of how liquidating this market is today.

Buying here @ 0.9775 with a sub 0.97 stop and a target for parity may be a mid-term scenario. The only problem to this is the fact that retail-losers positioning keeps being overwhelmingly LONG USD/CHF, which means (contrarian theory) that short squeezes will keep on happening.
 
FX retailers' positioning at this hour

14:54CET

This is how things stand on the retail side (Oanda data)....not good for the USD........

Nov 2, 2010 14:40 GMT+0100
READING %LONG/%SHORT

1. AUD/USD
39.60% 60.40%
2. EUR/CHF
59.96% 40.04%
3. EUR/GBP
43.32% 56.68%
4. EUR/JPY
59.59% 40.41%
5. EUR/USD
40.66% 59.34%
6. GBP/JPY
65.94% 34.06%
7. GBP/USD
37.63% 62.37%
8. USD/CAD
63.14% 36.86%
9. USD/CHF
73.76% 26.24%
10. USD/JPY
82.71% 17.29%
 
At the Close. Not that bad despite all the noise.....

17:55CET

The USD is again confirming the old saying (mine, I believe) that Tuesday is 'a USD-selling day', but despite market efforts for a bigger push, the monopoly-currency is somewhat holding on its half-feet (or what's left of it), as AUD/USD remains below parity despite the aggressive attempts to bring the unit above the level throughout the day. The USD has lost some real ground vs the Euro, but it has gained big time at one point vs GBP, which means that we may be in a cross-driven market, not a direct-USD pairs market, which is something to very much take into account for it is not the same an overall USD decline vs a USD decline because of JPY or GBP crosses fall.

Technically speaking, the suggested long in USD/CHF remains valid, and today's fast decline is very much suspicious to me, especially ahead of the US election results and tomorrow's FOMC. I am inclined to believe that if we move past 0.98 up again, we might see parity before the week is over, and maybe today is a BEAR TRAP DAY. That would definitely be confirmed with a move below 1,348 in Gold, as the unit would be back below a key magnet line found @ 1,3535, and that in turn would keep the hopes of a H&S (complex) pattern still very much alive, and we might see some big drop there as well.

Before leaving, here's how FX losers position themselves in Oanda at this hour. I'm Tony Juste, and I look forward to your company again tomorrow. www.ctainvestor.com, www.twitter.com/ctainvestor and www.investors-europe.com is where you'll find my research.

Nov 2, 2010 17:40 GMT+0100
READING %LONG/%SHORT

1. AUD/USD
39.39% 60.61%
2. EUR/CHF
58.70% 41.30%
3. EUR/GBP
41.54% 58.46%
4. EUR/JPY
56.04% 43.96%
5. EUR/USD
38.17% 61.83%
6. GBP/JPY
65.67% 34.33%
7. GBP/USD
37.07% 62.93%
8. USD/CAD
63.98% 36.02%
9. USD/CHF
74.33% 25.67%
10. USD/JPY
82.95% 17.05%
 
At the Open. Today is the day... say it!

09:15CET

Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. The US mid-term elections came out as expected, with republicans winning control of the US House of Representatives, so the market did not move much as it all had been 'priced in'. Technically speaking, this end of the week will basically confirm whether the apparent linear breaks (EUR/USD broke resistance line off its recent highs yesterday after climbing above 1.4030) are for real or they've just added to a big bear-trap that might be unfolding at a larger scale. I think that the short-term gold pattern, floating around a magnet line, using it 'falsely' as support line when it should be basically trading above and below it, is rather suspicious. Call me superstitious if you want, but the price action around that line in Gold does not look right to me. I said on Monday that the H&S pattern in the 4hr chart could be considered as dismissed....well, I still feel there's some chance of that pattern being confirmed if we have a move sub-1,315 in the coming day; and that, I believe, would be a leading indicator for the market.

Elsewhere on FX land things have not changed much but the USD is well off its yesterdays lows against the major currencies, all of them awaiting today's FOMC release of how much money they will print this time. As usual, also please find below how the FX retail positioning is seen at this hour, little changes there thus far, EUR and GBP shorts over 60%, still not good......

Nov 3, 2010 09:20 GMT+0100
READING %LONG/%SHORT

1. AUD/USD
40.83% 59.17%
2. EUR/CHF
58.09% 41.91%
3. EUR/GBP
43.71% 56.29%
4. EUR/JPY
57.93% 42.07%
5. EUR/USD
39.71% 60.29%
6. GBP/JPY
66.08% 33.92%
7. GBP/USD
39.82% 60.18%
8. USD/CAD
63.71% 36.29%
9. USD/CHF
71.49% 28.51%
10. USD/JPY
82.53% 17.47%
 
Extreme levels for the day

10:42CET

The levels are based on 1hr charts and are only valid for the day. OB means overbought and OS means oversold.

EUR/USD - extreme OB 1.4117 - extreme OS 1.3934
GBP/USD - extreme OB 1.6144 - extreme OS 1.5925 - almost in OB territory
USD/JPY - extreme OB 81.050 - extreme OS 80.250
USD/CHF - extreme OB 0.9871 - extreme OS 0.9714
AUD/USD - extreme OB 1.0055 - extreme OS 0.9926
 
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