Could the Weimar Hyperinflation Happen Again in America?

Re: almost a year

N Rothschild said:
:LOL::LOL:

you clearly havnt read this thread form the beginning have you? there is an abundance of posts from me providing my thesis against hyperinflation in DETAIL. the bond market colpase and currency crisis? you talk like these things are set in stone... now i remember why i stopped posting here! its full of retards! so im a gomer? what are you then, an enlightened economist who knows best? lol. the biggest thing your morons cant grasp is that America IS the world economy...so no longer reserve currency huh..what shall we use instead..the euro? how much have you lost on your pro hyperinflation dollar destructive positions? (i presume you back up your theory with some money)

and weimer germnay hyperinflation snt possible in america. and if you dont know why, you shoudlnt even be talking about weimar germany!

oh and you might want to check who was most helpfull member of the year last year ;)
Click to expand...

Was it Victoria, but only in the weekends? ;)
 
Ingot54 said:
BS - you make me smile mate - you really do.

You quote percentages, but fail to state percentages of WHAT!!!!! :LOL::LOL::LOL:

You really don't have any idea do you.

If US exports are $20 Billion, and your percentages break up into fractions of that, then that is one thing.

But if US imports are $120 billion, then I don't care which way you want to cut and dice it, you have a Current Account Deficit of $100 billion ... clear?

You don't seem to grasp that the US needs about $3 billion each and every day JUST TO RUN ITS ECONOMY! It has to get that from somewhere - and it gets it from the BOND MARKET, because its manufacturing base has been destroyed, its production of goods for export are almost insignificant wrt the imports of mainly consumables.

The US runs on CREDIT. It can not pay its bills, so it has to continue to borrow.

Do you understand that?

But every borrower will one day be called upon to repay the loan. failure to do that creates a crisis of solvency, and some sources might call that bankruptcy.

The USA IS BANKRUPT.

Its liabilities are more than its assets. Right now, the sovereign capital the US is attracting is beginning to slow noticeably. That is what the Bond Market is there for - to give entities with surplus cash somewhere to invest it safely. When they no longer have confidence that their loan (cash/credit) is safe, they stop loaning, and they start redeeming.

Do you understand that?

Once a few entities begin to redeem their Bonds, then the whole herd rushes for the exits. They know that if they do not get their money in the first spike of redemption, then they won't get it at all.

The signs of that are:
* Countries like China slowing their purchases of Bonds, or refusing to participate in Bond sales at all.
* Widening spreads on Bonds
* Rising Yields on Bonds
* Increase in Quantitative Easing
* Increasing frequency of failure of Bond sales to clear
* Increase in the number of SHORT TERM Bonds offered for Auction
* Decrease in the number of 30-yr Bonds, or none offered at all

Do you understand that?

Rabitting on about Economics and Finance like you have a PhD, and then showing your ignorance of basic account balances!

C'est très amusant, n'est ce pas?
C'est drôle!
Mais, continue monsieur, continue.
Il vaut mieux hasarder de sauver un coupable que de condamner un innocent.

http://www.businessforum.com/debt01.html

How much is YOUR share of the debt??
Click to expand...

You said you wanted a serious response, and I gave it to you.
I get this in response.
You will never hear from me again.
 
"You see, Gomer, a quick Cook's Tour of your forum posts reveals the type of member we are dealing with in you, and of course you may notice that no one takes you seriously - you post for sport, not for contribution or enlightenment."


Most Helpful Member (Answers Questions/Help Newbies) of 2009
GOLD - trader_dante
SILVER - Mr. Charts
BRONZE - N Rothschild


i love it.
 
Atilla said:
Good many fundamental arguements have been put and I'm afraid I fail to understand the significance of value added or the benefits of US and UK being at the bottom of value added charts etc... The crux of the matter is both countries have budget financing issues today coupled with credibility to service debt.

Also, looking at the micro composition of exports imports mean very little as one has to look at the bottom line which is the net current account Balance of Payments. US has defecit in this area. When was the last time it had a surplus BoP?
Country Comparison :: Current account balance I was surprised to see the US right at the bottom of this list and China at the top.

There is a knee jerk response to defend the USA for some reason in all its acts and I feel as a common stance there is much talk with no credible policy for overcoming the challenges it is facing.

Just as you point out the removal of the gold standard in early seventies took a full decade + many more years to play out its impact on global economy I feel the ramifications of current policies will similarly be visible perhaps 2015-20 onwards.

Our mutual jester friend is about as dense as a plank piece of wood to expect inflation in under a year...

With respect to inflation / hyperinflation - I doubt the trillion dollars have been spent yet. No doubt they have been allocated to unaccounted secret Pentagon or NASA projects with some portion to the banks and smallest to industry. These dollars are yet to be spent with possibly some % success in project product delivery. I fail to see how the banks will repay this debt whilst they are still going under.

Similarly in the UK - on one hand they are all trying to raise capital to bolster their reserves whilst dishing out dollops of bonuses to their elite lazy do nothings. The system is so awash with money it has got to be the biggest heist of the Millenium as the mighty empire endures last spasm before giving up the ghost.

With a much reduced technology gap and no new World beating industry coupled with increasing global competition the US is facing a bleak outlook.

In general appetite for government debt is much reduced. Rates are going up and servicing debt will become much dearer in the future. Much more impending financial turmoil is due and I can't see the light out of this situation as yet.
Click to expand...

Nice post, Atilla.

The threat of Bond Markets collapsing is very real.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/feb/17/china-sells-us-treasury-bonds

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6146957/China-alarmed-by-US-money-printing.html

http://seekingalpha.com/article/160240-china-diversifying-out-of-u-s-dollars-bullish-for-gold

... and this one is always a good read ... subscription free ...

http://dailyreckoning.com/

http://dailyreckoning.com/government-bond-market-just-a-ponzi-scheme/
 
N Rothschild said:
"You see, Gomer, a quick Cook's Tour of your forum posts reveals the type of member we are dealing with in you, and of course you may notice that no one takes you seriously - you post for sport, not for contribution or enlightenment."


Most Helpful Member (Answers Questions/Help Newbies) of 2009
GOLD - trader_dante
SILVER - Mr. Charts
BRONZE - N Rothschild


i love it.
Click to expand...

Congratulations ... you deserve bronze.
How did that happen???

Only the three contestants, eh?

A little success brings out the truly arrogant operator - vis a vis this thread.
 
Ingot54 said:
Nice post, Atilla.

The threat of Bond Markets collapsing is very real.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/feb/17/china-sells-us-treasury-bonds

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6146957/China-alarmed-by-US-money-printing.html

http://seekingalpha.com/article/160240-china-diversifying-out-of-u-s-dollars-bullish-for-gold

... and this one is always a good read ... subscription free ...

http://dailyreckoning.com/

http://dailyreckoning.com/government-bond-market-just-a-ponzi-scheme/
Click to expand...

lol posting main stream media articles on the world economy. i LOVE this. you really a retard. away back to your pound a point spread betting.
 
Ingot54 said:
Congratulations ... you deserve bronze.
How did that happen???

Only the three contestants, eh?
Click to expand...

i have no idea, considering i dont know anything and no one takes me seriously. (apparently) and no that was out of the entire forum. not that i really care, but kinda makes you look a bit stupid no?
 
i think what alot of people dont graps, especially on this forum..is that just because it was in a book..or in the paper..does not make it true! the real world does not work like that. theory is exactly that, theory...

any person who claims hyperinflation is going to happen because the goverment printed x amount of cash clearly has no grasp what so ever of how money really works and how credit markets operate. altho benton d struckheon does from his earlier post.
 
Atilla said:
Good many fundamental arguements have been put and I'm afraid I fail to understand the significance of value added or the benefits of US and UK being at the bottom of value added charts etc... The crux of the matter is both countries have budget financing issues today coupled with credibility to service debt.

Also, looking at the micro composition of exports imports mean very little as one has to look at the bottom line which is the net current account Balance of Payments. US has defecit in this area. When was the last time it had a surplus BoP?
Country Comparison :: Current account balance I was surprised to see the US right at the bottom of this list and China at the top.

There is a knee jerk response to defend the USA for some reason in all its acts and I feel as a common stance there is much talk with no credible policy for overcoming the challenges it is facing.

Just as you point out the removal of the gold standard in early seventies took a full decade + many more years to play out its impact on global economy I feel the ramifications of current policies will similarly be visible perhaps 2015-20 onwards.

Our mutual jester friend is about as dense as a plank piece of wood to expect inflation in under a year...

With respect to inflation / hyperinflation - I doubt the trillion dollars have been spent yet. No doubt they have been allocated to unaccounted secret Pentagon or NASA projects with some portion to the banks and smallest to industry. These dollars are yet to be spent with possibly some % success in project product delivery. I fail to see how the banks will repay this debt whilst they are still going under.

Similarly in the UK - on one hand they are all trying to raise capital to bolster their reserves whilst dishing out dollops of bonuses to their elite lazy do nothings. The system is so awash with money it has got to be the biggest heist of the Millenium as the mighty empire endures last spasm before giving up the ghost.

With a much reduced technology gap and no new World beating industry coupled with increasing global competition the US is facing a bleak outlook.

In general appetite for government debt is much reduced. Rates are going up and servicing debt will become much dearer in the future. Much more impending financial turmoil is due and I can't see the light out of this situation as yet.
Click to expand...

Government debt is only one piece, and the least important. This is what gets lost.
US debt held by the public is seriously dwarfed by the various forms of private debt. I don't know what the comparable situation is in the UK, but I'm pretty sure it would be similar, because the laws of economic behavior don't change because of artificial political boundaries.
Also, the US and the UK are at the bottom of the list for how many hurdles you have to cross to begin a new business. Look again at the link I posted. That's a good thing, not a bad thing. Obviously, the easier it is to start a new business, the more will get started. The more started, the more will succeed. The more that succeed, the more original ideas make it into the marketplace. This is the long-term advantage the Anglo-American economies have.
The link where the US and the UK come out at or near the top is for manufacturing value-added. The UK is well behind Germany, so you guys do have some work to do. But it's hardly doomsday.
As for banker do-nothings, believe me, you have no idea. None at all. I have close contact with these folks as a result of my contacts, and it's truly, extraordinarily amazing how these people truly believe they're part of the private, entrepreneurial economy, when in fact they're nothing but government employees, and should be paid as such.
 
N Rothschild said:
i have no idea, considering i dont know anything and no one takes me seriously. (apparently) and no that was out of the entire forum. not that i really care, but kinda makes you look a bit stupid no?
Click to expand...

Lol ... I was born stupid, and I'll die stupid.
I have no problem with stupid.

You can tell that I spend my time with like-minded folks.
 
"Our mutual jester friend is about as dense as a plank piece of wood to expect inflation in under a year.."

i dont expect inflation in under a year, because it isnt coming.

the world will be in a de-leveraging deflationary cycle for years to come. why do you think the fed opens the flood gates of freshly preinted money? to try and stop this from happening..and if you think a trillion here or there can stop it..your a fool.
 
Ingot54 said:
Lol ... I was born stupid, and I'll die stupid.
I have no problem with stupid.

You can tell that I spend my time with like-minded folks.
Click to expand...

I had a long run of exchanges with lille ol NR and 'I think' I lost :eek:. So I put him on my ignore list and silence is truly golden as they say.

Some things best to avoid and walk around - even if you can step on it. It tends to stick and that awful smell ends up following one around.

He also has a fetish about the Telegraph... I thought it was just with me but obviously he has taken a liking to you too. Never heard anyone with an OCD with the Telegraphs before but you get all kinds of freaks these days... :cheesy:

He is getting very near to being listed into my ignore list again... :rolleyes:
 
hey if you dont want me to bash the telegraph, dont post links to it to back up your claims lol
 
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