Best Thread Correlation Trading - Basic Ideas and Strategies

cracked the million earlier ............:cheers::party:

pleased with that and sits me strongly in the forex area of T2win

will take a stroll through the threads last 5 years here over weekend....may try to put something up on youtube if I get time as its been a while

thanks again to everyone who has been involved on this thread ..............a lot of very talented traders and programmers have contributed both off and online over those last 5 years ........and overall it seems forex strengthmeters sure have come a long way since the early 2000's :smart:

I am very appreciative and lucky for the support given to me ....and I have been blessed with some great mentors .........hopefully if people follow my scalping exploits here and at Forexperians live trading thread I hope it shows that some of the learning has gone in ......

I don't tend to make a fool of myself much these days .....;):cool:

N


Well Done Neil

Now the next challenge - and whether it takes 3 or 5 years or longer is the next million........... in dollar - or even better pound notes .

Need not be in one account - every $20k you make you can take $15k out if you want - but just think - 10k per month and 100 months is too long - ideally you want to aim for the $20 to $40k per month - its all possible - even on just 3 or 5 lots per pip - and then you will notch up your next million quicker than your thread (y)

Enjoy your weekend

Regards

F
 
Well Done Neil

Now the next challenge - and whether it takes 3 or 5 years or longer is the next million........... in dollar - or even better pound notes .

Need not be in one account - every $20k you make you can take $15k out if you want - but just think - 10k per month and 100 months is too long - ideally you want to aim for the $20 to $40k per month - its all possible - even on just 3 or 5 lots per pip - and then you will notch up your next million quicker than your thread (y)

Enjoy your weekend

Regards

F

thanks F ..............as you know I keep pondering going pro .........:cool:

where I live now is pretty useless for commuting to larger blue chip companies (where my finance and commercial experience is most relevant)...

and the consultancy work is thin as I wont team up with bigger players and do the brownnose rounds.....or indeed dress up the truth when someone needs to hear what is really wrong with their people,processes and products................

for example my last role with a Local authority/council lasted 5 weeks and culminated in a "difference of opinion" between myself and the councillors regarding proposed business ventures that were "farcical in nature and a waste of taxpayers money" (jees I do need to be a little more diplomatic in my consulting approach:rolleyes:)

i'm working on a few more job/consulting positions but most involve extensive travel and living abroad (again).............something I want to avoid really

so watch this space ...........wife and I have a break out with friends next week in our favourite little Canarian island and I can take a step back.......

cant wait :smart:
N
 
Hi N

Enjoy your break

Talking of the Canary Islands - going back approx 30+ yrs ago my girlfriend at the time ( now wife) worked as a stewardess at Britannia Airways. One of the best perks I enjoyed was £10 trips out to Tenerife or Lanzarote and so for about 3 years we were going 4 times a year - even for just long weekends. In between we would have 1 day shopping trips in Palma ( another £10 for me only) and in those days if the plane was fully - I would be in the Pilots cockpit sitting on the jump seat trying to work out what they were doing - the good old days.

My favourite was Los Cristianos in Tenerife in those days - but did go to both Lanzarote and Gran Canaria a few times as well. I was never one for the North of Tenerife - as the weather was never as good as the south and we were just sun gods in our youth. Trouble is - never been back there is last 15 years - so imagine all as changed now.

I can imagine as you being a sensible accountant and being experienced in the business world you know ideally you do not want all your "eggs in one basket" plus the fact as we get older - nothing too "high pressure" and stressful. I thought the same 5 + years ago - but nowadays I realise once you have a proper routine - along with a well tested "edge" - then accept we will never be 100% all the while and just trade to you hit your target .

As you know - for me I started off years ago at just 20 pips a day then over last 3 years got to the 50 pip daily target - but really its just a number to keep me motivated. I need pressure to perform - (although not all stress with big massive lots) and then I focus better - but as you know some days I could just stop after 2 hrs and finish for the day - other days Ok - 4 hrs over 2 sessions and for this last 210 trading days - 36 of them when for what ever reason I did not get my target - but still ended up with a least 20 or 25 positive pips - even if I had 5 or 6 losses along the way and could not get out all of them for just minus 2 or 3 pips.

I always though I was disciplined and good with time and work management - but now Major Magnum shows me I am basically no longer as hungry as 3 -5 years ago - and so rarely chase for 300 -400 + pip days and 25 -40 intraday trades etc - leave that for the younger traders and instead pace yourself for both rewards and fun - after all its so boring if all's done in isolation on your own - with just the dog sitting under your chair staring at you wanting to go "walkies".

I also think now if you or the wife have worries - with regards to last "black swan " event etc - then just trade on a $5k or $10k account and take money out twice a week etc - so in worse worse case scenario you only can ever lose your account capital - with a good broker who as a non negative balance agreement.

I notice MM is using a £1k live account and just trying to put anything from 30 to 100% a day on it and then resetting etc for the time being. OK instead of risking 1% on a $50k account per scalp - say with 5 pip stop ie $100 a pip then think - on a say $7k capital account use 3% - $40 pip and so a $200 risk in absolute terms against whats seems a safer % but is $500.

$40 a pip with just a 30 pip target is $1200 a day - maybe less if you go stress free with more part stakes and stops in profit - or potentially more - as MM I noticed knocked up over 700 pips net over a 1/ 2 day session. - so just 100 pips over 12 hrs at just 2 lots is $2000 a day - hardly just pocket money.

I also think you know done correctly - experienced intraday traders should not have losing days - they are things of the past when you have got it sorted - even if you do have 7 bad consecutive losses - its still not the end of your profit day. Allow say 2 per month maximum and they should only happen if you do not have a clear day of being able to trade a minimum 4-6 hrs over the 6 00 am to 6 00 pm - 12 hr day window.

So many friends have said to me - why are you still playing with it - get 25 or more lots a pip back on and just focus on 25 pips a day and drop the blogging and stay focused and just work 2 or 3 days a week - instead of normally 17 -20 days per trading month.

Trouble is - its out my comfort zone and I know I would not enjoy my day so much - although I am not ruling it out - as I am always one for another challenge and variety and so might give it a whirl next year in the summer months.

If you do give it a proper go for say a month or two - don't expect immediate success - it will be so strange - new rules - new disciplines - etc etc - but you know - like with MM - I am here to hold your hand and I am sure MM would want to do the same - as we are all on the same side playing the "game" and of course 2 or 3 or more eyes and brains are always better than just one.

Don't get too sunburnt ;-)

Regards


F
 
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heres an interesting thread on pyramiding and some input from me ...........also covers the excellent london session yesterday on a bull usd

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-systems/204162-pyramiding.html#post2506496


NVP - so is your first pyramid opened only after the original trade has broken even (so no added capital risk) or would you load up on the USD capital risk because the probability of reversal had reduced?

most I take is 2 separate usd pairs at inception..........I certainly wouldn't be adding more trades to the run unless at least 1 of those was already running a good (locked) pip profit and I was trailing..........

heres yesterday for example ...........the top chart is the usd index .......the London session was awesome for usd .........it ran solid bull for over 4 hours

so GU was a sell from early doors and (dependent on scalping parameters) it could have been traded multiple times or simply left to run with a trailer .......then other currencies would have been added to the portfolio when opportunities arose......

NO single currency move will generally 100% dominate a usd trend run..........although gbp did a damn good job yesterday of dominating the proceedings............normally I expect to see 3-4 currencies taking turns to share the moves

the only currency that did not participate yesterday was the yen that does has a tendency to run with usd when its on fire...........but again I am nervous of ever offering exact formulas and patterns in strengthmeter trading ................its pretty fuzzy most of the time and you have to go with the flow through practice and experience..........

its never ever black and white (what in trading is ?)

N
 

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Hi N

Enjoy your break

Talking of the Canary Islands - going back approx 30+ yrs ago my girlfriend at the time ( now wife) worked as a stewardess at Britannia Airways. One of the best perks I enjoyed was £10 trips out to Tenerife or Lanzarote and so for about 3 years we were going 4 times a year - even for just long weekends. In between we would have 1 day shopping trips in Palma ( another £10 for me only) and in those days if the plane was fully - I would be in the Pilots cockpit sitting on the jump seat trying to work out what they were doing - the good old days.

My favourite was Los Cristianos in Tenerife in those days - but did go to both Lanzarote and Gran Canaria a few times as well. I was never one for the North of Tenerife - as the weather was never as good as the south and we were just sun gods in our youth. Trouble is - never been back there is last 15 years - so imagine all as changed now.

I can imagine as you being a sensible accountant and being experienced in the business world you know ideally you do not want all your "eggs in one basket" plus the fact as we get older - nothing too "high pressure" and stressful. I thought the same 5 + years ago - but nowadays I realise once you have a proper routine - along with a well tested "edge" - then accept we will never be 100% all the while and just trade to you hit your target .

As you know - for me I started off years ago at just 20 pips a day then over last 3 years got to the 50 pip daily target - but really its just a number to keep me motivated. I need pressure to perform - (although not all stress with big massive lots) and then I focus better - but as you know some days I could just stop after 2 hrs and finish for the day - other days Ok - 4 hrs over 2 sessions and for this last 210 trading days - 36 of them when for what ever reason I did not get my target - but still ended up with a least 20 or 25 positive pips - even if I had 5 or 6 losses along the way and could not get out all of them for just minus 2 or 3 pips.

I always though I was disciplined and good with time and work management - but now Major Magnum shows me I am basically no longer as hungry as 3 -5 years ago - and so rarely chase for 300 -400 + pip days and 25 -40 intraday trades etc - leave that for the younger traders and instead pace yourself for both rewards and fun - after all its so boring if all's done in isolation on your own - with just the dog sitting under your chair staring at you wanting to go "walkies".

I also think now if you or the wife have worries - with regards to last "black swan " event etc - then just trade on a $5k or $10k account and take money out twice a week etc - so in worse worse case scenario you only can ever lose your account capital - with a good broker who as a non negative balance agreement.

I notice MM is using a £1k live account and just trying to put anything from 30 to 100% a day on it and then resetting etc for the time being. OK instead of risking 1% on a $50k account per scalp - say with 5 pip stop ie $100 a pip then think - on a say $7k capital account use 3% - $40 pip and so a $200 risk in absolute terms against whats seems a safer % but is $500.

$40 a pip with just a 30 pip target is $1200 a day - maybe less if you go stress free with more part stakes and stops in profit - or potentially more - as MM I noticed knocked up over 700 pips net over a 1/ 2 day session. - so just 100 pips over 12 hrs at just 2 lots is $2000 a day - hardly just pocket money.

I also think you know done correctly - experienced intraday traders should not have losing days - they are things of the past when you have got it sorted - even if you do have 7 bad consecutive losses - its still not the end of your profit day. Allow say 2 per month maximum and they should only happen if you do not have a clear day of being able to trade a minimum 4-6 hrs over the 6 00 am to 6 00 pm - 12 hr day window.

So many friends have said to me - why are you still playing with it - get 25 or more lots a pip back on and just focus on 25 pips a day and drop the blogging and stay focused and just work 2 or 3 days a week - instead of normally 17 -20 days per trading month.

Trouble is - its out my comfort zone and I know I would not enjoy my day so much - although I am not ruling it out - as I am always one for another challenge and variety and so might give it a whirl next year in the summer months.

If you do give it a proper go for say a month or two - don't expect immediate success - it will be so strange - new rules - new disciplines - etc etc - but you know - like with MM - I am here to hold your hand and I am sure MM would want to do the same - as we are all on the same side playing the "game" and of course 2 or 3 or more eyes and brains are always better than just one.

Don't get too sunburnt ;-)

Regards


F

hey F

jees similar stomping ground it seems in our youth .........last time I hit teneriffe was around '89 ...........I was on the back of a messy divorce plus on holiday with my mate who was also seperated.............cannot remember a thing .......but my mate still has the negatives .......hahahaha:LOL:

plenty of jumpseat fun for me when I was at BA in late 90's as well.........we were mainly carribean island hopping during holiday downtime so a little more painful re hours flown ......but rum helped ...........:p

the wife knows I can deliver and trusts me .........she was part of the 80's/90's brigade on the shell oil Trading desks so knows I am a bloody saint compared to the shinanegans her traders were pulling to make money....

so it will happen ..........i'm like a moth to a flame ..........like you are ...................its in my DNA...........and always will be

have a good weekend (y)

N
 
Hi N

Enjoy your break

Talking of the Canary Islands - going back approx 30+ yrs ago my girlfriend at the time ( now wife) worked as a stewardess at Britannia Airways. One of the best perks I enjoyed was £10 trips out to Tenerife or Lanzarote and so for about 3 years we were going 4 times a year - even for just long weekends. In between we would have 1 day shopping trips in Palma ( another £10 for me only) and in those days if the plane was fully - I would be in the Pilots cockpit sitting on the jump seat trying to work out what they were doing - the good old days.

My favourite was Los Cristianos in Tenerife in those days - but did go to both Lanzarote and Gran Canaria a few times as well. I was never one for the North of Tenerife - as the weather was never as good as the south and we were just sun gods in our youth. Trouble is - never been back there is last 15 years - so imagine all as changed now.

I can imagine as you being a sensible accountant and being experienced in the business world you know ideally you do not want all your "eggs in one basket" plus the fact as we get older - nothing too "high pressure" and stressful. I thought the same 5 + years ago - but nowadays I realise once you have a proper routine - along with a well tested "edge" - then accept we will never be 100% all the while and just trade to you hit your target .

As you know - for me I started off years ago at just 20 pips a day then over last 3 years got to the 50 pip daily target - but really its just a number to keep me motivated. I need pressure to perform - (although not all stress with big massive lots) and then I focus better - but as you know some days I could just stop after 2 hrs and finish for the day - other days Ok - 4 hrs over 2 sessions and for this last 210 trading days - 36 of them when for what ever reason I did not get my target - but still ended up with a least 20 or 25 positive pips - even if I had 5 or 6 losses along the way and could not get out all of them for just minus 2 or 3 pips.

I always though I was disciplined and good with time and work management - but now Major Magnum shows me I am basically no longer as hungry as 3 -5 years ago - and so rarely chase for 300 -400 + pip days and 25 -40 intraday trades etc - leave that for the younger traders and instead pace yourself for both rewards and fun - after all its so boring if all's done in isolation on your own - with just the dog sitting under your chair staring at you wanting to go "walkies".

I also think now if you or the wife have worries - with regards to last "black swan " event etc - then just trade on a $5k or $10k account and take money out twice a week etc - so in worse worse case scenario you only can ever lose your account capital - with a good broker who as a non negative balance agreement.

I notice MM is using a £1k live account and just trying to put anything from 30 to 100% a day on it and then resetting etc for the time being. OK instead of risking 1% on a $50k account per scalp - say with 5 pip stop ie $100 a pip then think - on a say $7k capital account use 3% - $40 pip and so a $200 risk in absolute terms against whats seems a safer % but is $500.

$40 a pip with just a 30 pip target is $1200 a day - maybe less if you go stress free with more part stakes and stops in profit - or potentially more - as MM I noticed knocked up over 700 pips net over a 1/ 2 day session. - so just 100 pips over 12 hrs at just 2 lots is $2000 a day - hardly just pocket money.

I also think you know done correctly - experienced intraday traders should not have losing days - they are things of the past when you have got it sorted - even if you do have 7 bad consecutive losses - its still not the end of your profit day. Allow say 2 per month maximum and they should only happen if you do not have a clear day of being able to trade a minimum 4-6 hrs over the 6 00 am to 6 00 pm - 12 hr day window.

So many friends have said to me - why are you still playing with it - get 25 or more lots a pip back on and just focus on 25 pips a day and drop the blogging and stay focused and just work 2 or 3 days a week - instead of normally 17 -20 days per trading month.

Trouble is - its out my comfort zone and I know I would not enjoy my day so much - although I am not ruling it out - as I am always one for another challenge and variety and so might give it a whirl next year in the summer months.

If you do give it a proper go for say a month or two - don't expect immediate success - it will be so strange - new rules - new disciplines - etc etc - but you know - like with MM - I am here to hold your hand and I am sure MM would want to do the same - as we are all on the same side playing the "game" and of course 2 or 3 or more eyes and brains are always better than just one.

Don't get too sunburnt ;-)

Regards


F

ive been getting in the habit of going in a bit large and grabbing 7 to ten pips then cutting to reasonable size. it is working for me but im in a conundrum about continuing it as i know its not great practice, and actually does not help me stay clinically unemotional through the day, which is my aim. The market for me was clearer last week which gave me more confidence to go larger. i wonder if i could apply some sort of diluted Kelly type criterion for position sizing. I kind of do already in that ive been trying to identify the scalps that have the most potential. Having entered larger than usual, i find it easier to hold remainders big enough to make an account impact should they go to 50 or more pips. Much of that impact is subjective and as such perhaps i should be content with smaller impacts, as wanting it all quick is as we all know a newbie cliche.
 
ive been getting in the habit of going in a bit large and grabbing 7 to ten pips then cutting to reasonable size. it is working for me but im in a conundrum about continuing it as i know its not great practice, and actually does not help me stay clinically unemotional through the day, which is my aim. The market for me was clearer last week which gave me more confidence to go larger. i wonder if i could apply some sort of diluted Kelly type criterion for position sizing. I kind of do already in that ive been trying to identify the scalps that have the most potential. Having entered larger than usual, i find it easier to hold remainders big enough to make an account impact should they go to 50 or more pips. Much of that impact is subjective and as such perhaps i should be content with smaller impacts, as wanting it all quick is as we all know a newbie cliche.

Hi MM

It really is a case of testing what works best for you.

If you think about it - and I will try and keep it on simple figures - If you enter with say 3 lots - ie $30 per pip with a normal soft mental stop of 5 pips - then worse case ( normal not extreme ) scenario - loss of $150 .

Now if you are progressing and getting your timing spot on - it will come - within even 20 seconds of entering you might be B/E or up a 1 pip and then if you see it move 4 pips in your favour you have a choice which I will explain now

You could immediately exit 70% whether with 3 pips or 5 pips being better - but lets say 4 pip as $20 - then you are up $80 in ideally 1 to 3 mins or so

Now you have $10 a pip left on - so in theory - it could go 6 pips against your entry point and if you exited - then you still have a net profit of $10 -$20

But lets say - it does not and your original scalp forecast is correct and you make say 12 pips at $10 plus the 4 at $20 you exited first - then end result $200.

Thats a simple first method

Now lets look at more advance methods - let look at 6 lots - as a good size

Same scenario after entry and 4 pips you take some off - but lets say just 60% - so now your immediate profit is $36 x 4 = $144

You are left with $24 still on per pip - and you could let them go 3 or 4 pips in the red below entry and still be in a net profit - but instead - you manage to get to 9 pips and you take $14 off

So - now you have a profit of $144 on $36 exited and 9 x $14 = $126 as well making total $270 and still $10 left on

In theory now you could let the $10 go 15 pips against your entry and still have a net profit of $120 on whole trade

Instead - the pullback is only 12 pips against you and only say 3 or 4 pips in the red and then that $10 goes on to make you say 64 pips over the day = another $640 making $910 off one basic entry with 3 trades off it - and exposure is only your first say 1 -3 mins

You could also just enter at $36 then $14 then $10 all over 1 minute as well and there are even other more advanced ways as well

Hope that helps a bit

Sorry N - talking accountancy here in your thread ;-)


Regards


F
 
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Hi MM

It really is a case of testing what works best for you.

If you think about it - and I will try and keep it on simple figures - If you enter with say 3 lots - ie $30 per pip with a normal soft mental stop of 5 pips - then worse case ( normal not extreme ) scenario - loss of $150 .

Now if you are progressing and getting your timing spot on - it will come - within even 20 seconds of entering you might be B/E or up a 1 pip and then if you see it move 4 pips in your favour you have a choice which I will explain now

You could immediately exit 70% whether with 3 pips or 5 pips being better - but lets say 4 pip as $20 - then you are up $80 in ideally 1 to 3 mins or so

Now you have $10 a pip left on - so in theory - it could go 6 pips against your entry point and if you exited - then you still have a net profit of $10 -$20

But lets say - it does not and your original scalp forecast is correct and you make say 12 pips at $10 plus the 4 at $20 you exited first - then end result $200.

Thats a simple first method

Now lets look at more advance methods - let look at 6 lots - as a good size

Same scenario after entry and 4 pips you take some off - but lets say just 60% - so now your immediate profit is $36 x 4 = $144

You are left with $24 still on per pip - and you could let them go 3 or 4 pips in the red below entry and still be in a net profit - but instead - you manage to get to 9 pips and you take $14 off

So - now you have a profit of $144 on $36 exited and 9 x $14 = $126 as well making total $270 and still $10 left on

In theory now you could let the $10 go 15 pips against your entry and still have a net profit of $120 on whole trade

Instead - the pullback is only 12 pips against you and only say 3 or 4 pips in the red and then that $10 goes on to make you say 64 pips over the day = another $640 making $910 off one basic entry with 3 trades off it - and exposure is only your first say 1 -3 mins

You could also just enter at $36 then $14 then $10 all over 1 minute as well and there are even other more advanced ways as well

Hope that helps a bit

Sorry N - talking accountancy here in your thread ;-)


Regards


F

yes this is what i was doing in my own rudimentary way! what does occur is how to measure the mathematical efficiency, ie not getting full stakes on all the pips i have orignally risked a large stake on
 
hey all

here was the week ..............superb bull action on the usd bagged a lot of pips through the week for many traders

cant get it like that all the time - sadly !

N
 

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hey guys ................

for me its all about what works in the heat of battle ........

1) if you bomb then you bomb ...doesnt matter how many contracts you have on the table...you've lost the lot based on when you bail if market goes against you

2) once you have say 5 pips on the table you then can play "portfolio management - wrap up" .....its a simple risk vs reward tradeoff..............the more you leave on the table the more pips you will accumulate if things go well..........if the market snaps back then you've given a few pips back that you could have had in the bank................ but you are still in profit whatever ..................personally I think leaving the trade full on to try to get 7 pips is getting right on the marginal line before you go into "wrap up" mode......its pushing the envelope on a market that frankly will do whatever it wants......

also or me its back to more around the execution........... as I think too complex a scheme loses you valuable decision seconds in your head and can cost you plenty if you miss or mess up a trade

i'm a keep it relatively simple at the moment kinda guy .........max 2 positions per pair.....and leaving 1 on to run if it goes well and the 5 pips go in the back of the net


MM is trying to buy what.......1-2 pips extra per winning trade ?........that's a hell of a lot over the year if he pulls it off and keeps his win% as high ..............so good hunting !!

N
 
hey guys ................

for me its all about what works in the heat of battle ........

1) if you bomb then you bomb ...doesnt matter how many contracts you have on the table...you've lost the lot based on when you bail if market goes against you

2) once you have say 5 pips on the table you then can play "portfolio management - wrap up" .....its a simple risk vs reward tradeoff..............the more you leave on the table the more pips you will accumulate if things go well..........if the market snaps back then you've given a few pips back that you could have had in the bank................ but you are still in profit whatever ..................personally I think leaving the trade full on to try to get 7 pips is getting right on the marginal line before you go into "wrap up" mode......its pushing the envelope on a market that frankly will do whatever it wants......

also or me its back to more around the execution........... as I think too complex a scheme loses you valuable decision seconds in your head and can cost you plenty if you miss or mess up a trade

i'm a keep it relatively simple at the moment kinda guy .........max 2 positions per pair.....and leaving 1 on to run if it goes well and the 5 pips go in the back of the net


MM is trying to buy what.......1-2 pips extra per winning trade ?........that's a hell of a lot over the year if he pulls it off and keeps his win% as high ..............so good hunting !!

N

if i understand right you are saying 7 pips is more than enough to take first profits on.
 
if i understand right you are saying 7 pips is more than enough to take first profits on.

Hey MM

Saw your results on f's thread so just keep doing whatever you are doing (y)

Generally I am already taking profit at 5 pips when scalping......I may have more still running but 5 pips does for me as a starter....it may be less as I hit the button or I may have it set as an automatic target.......but I like to get pips banked especially first hour of scalping

N
 
My reply doesn't begin to do the topic justice, but it appears to me that you're asking about trade expectancy etc. This is an entirely mathematical metric, expressing the difference between your wins & losses on a per trade basis. That is to say, the amount you can expect to win/lose per unit of risk. (Apologies if I'm taking this thread off tangent here...)

Huge subject guys.......suggest a new thread.......;)
 
morning all

well the usd is entering a new week under pressure to sell........so that's where technically I will start hunting opportunities

lets roll.........

N
 

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i'm still not biting gang ...............bit of a ranging period in last 15 mins
 
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