Best Thread Correlation Trading - Basic Ideas and Strategies

[NVP]

mornin all.............

a little excitement overnight.........dow pushed on and then retraced....us30 trying to hold the 10,300's at present

on my 15m TF's I see a second big retrace (from wednesdays falls) overnight on the TAGCHF's .........so a continued dow push up is needed to drve thee dudes back down through this morning

$1m question is what will the NFP's be ?.......we all know they will be SH*T so I am struggling to swallow a continued Dow rise today

anyway elsewhere GBP seems to be enjoyng a northern trek today (against the falling Dow current) so my screens tell me to buy it above the 1.5430's with T1 5450 and a bold T2 5480

I would love dow30 to get into the 10,300's comfortably as well to support it

I think theres news out today on GBP so be aware of that

my wildcard is NZD currently looking strong but I think if dow now tanks (and tagCHF go north now) it will drop like a stone to join the already weakening AUD

AUD looks exposed to a Dow fall but I think it may retrace a little first (boat missed)

later
N

 

[NVP]

ok.......G/U buy it is - see earlier targets

N

 

[NVP]

nzdUSD doesnt look bad either.....with absolute clear blue sky above 7180ish

 

[NVP]

mornin all.............

a little excitement overnight.........dow pushed on and then retraced....us30 trying to hold the 10,300's at present

on my 15m TF's I see a second big retrace (from wednesdays falls) overnight on the TAGCHF's .........so a continued dow push up is needed to drve thee dudes back down through this morning

$1m question is what will the NFP's be ?.......we all know they will be SH*T so I am struggling to swallow a continued Dow rise today

anyway elsewhere GBP seems to be enjoyng a northern trek today (against the falling Dow current) so my screens tell me to buy it above the 1.5430's with T1 5450 and a bold T2 5480

I would love dow30 to get into the 10,300's comfortably as well to support it

I think theres news out today on GBP so be aware of that

my wildcard is NZD currently looking strong but I think if dow now tanks (and tagCHF go north now) it will drop like a stone to join the already weakening AUD

AUD looks exposed to a Dow fall but I think it may retrace a little first (boat missed)

later
N

jees..........that was as close as it gets and I apologise if your platform/Broker didnt give it

N

 

[NVP]

hmmm usd is looking pretty bullish despite the dow30's efforts to stay above 10300

if dow does falter they are all lining up for buys into the usd....

N

 

[NVP]

hi all

i'm tied up for the rest of the day so good luck if you have the nerve to trade this afternoon

a very important NFP wih a labor day to follow sounds to me like tighten S/L's in Equities and a recipe for a dow fall......

buy the yen and the UD into most vunerable currencies.....CAD and AUD to me but would need to see the action as the moves came to confirm that (which I wont)

later all......
N

 

[NVP]

hey all

the corrie is great for showing currency moves on news......

can you guess when the NFP announcement was on this chart ?

Euro did not miss a beat..interesting

N

 

[NVP]

mornin all..........

hmm......dow retracing slightly and a lot of predictable forex moves so far

Except :-

GBP - big falls
CAD - Holding up well

Trading is about watching what is NOT following the rules as much as what IS following the rules :smart:

N

 

[NVP]

at this moment I see (15ms) :-

CAD and NZD holding up well north

the TAGCHF team faltering on their attempted retrace North

GBP is in the depths with more potential falls coming

others EUR and AUD are in no mans land

N

 

[NVP]

On the higher TF's I really like the look of NZD on the 4hrs as a buy this week...although its progress (alongside other non TAGCHF currencies) will depend on whether the US30 cracks the mid August levels now seen today (See below)

and I think that is a huge ask......:smart:

N

 

[NVP]

if dow30 now starts to fall ( and say gets below 10435) i'd sell E/U....

sell below 2865 with a T1 of 2831

N

 

[NVP]

if dow30 now starts to fall ( and say gets below 10435) i'd sell E/U....

sell below 2865 with a T1 of 2831

N

frustrating eh ?

15 pip drift in direction of the E/U sell since my 11.29pm call but its not below my trigger, and the Dow is not noticably falling yet....

damn !!!
N

 

[NVP]

painful today

my 15m's show the TAGCHF as bearish but in no mans land with this recent pull back upwards.......need a little help from the markets for next move....

if anything recent dow30 is upwards again but I see no real twitch down yet from the TAG Team..although CHF looks already willing to fall.....

re the others :-

CAD & NZD = both overbought so ripe for corrections back
AUD in sell mode so could lead the charge down for the Commdolls

Euro nicely falling, GBP oversold

so in summary my calls are

Dow30 > 10,470 sell TagCHF buy GBP on rebound trade
Dow 30< 10,435 buy TAGCHF sell NZD (correction) or EUR (trend down)

game on :smart:
N

 

[NVP]

hmmm -

if GBP doesnt twitch back up let me also give you the option of some AUD buy action if Dow now rises

N

 

[Adamus]

Neil,
what instrument do you mean when you say Dow30? Are you looking at a DJIA index 30 variant or something else? I can't find it on IB.

Adam

 

[NVP]

painful today

my 15m's show the TAGCHF as bearish but in no mans land with this recent pull back upwards.......need a little help from the markets for next move....

if anything recent dow30 is upwards again but I see no real twitch down yet from the TAG Team..although CHF looks already willing to fall.....

re the others :-

CAD & NZD = both overbought so ripe for corrections back
AUD in sell mode so could lead the charge down for the Commdolls

Euro nicely falling, GBP oversold

so in summary my calls are

Dow30 > 10,470 sell TagCHF buy GBP on rebound trade
Dow 30< 10,435 buy TAGCHF sell NZD (correction) or EUR (trend down)

game on :smart:

hi all - the US30, Dow30 (or whatever US Equities market instument you have on your system corresponding to the 10,000 level) has not breached my levels above so far so no trade yet....

GBP as retraced a little which was on the cards regardless....Euro marches on down...AUD has turned south again with also a little softening from CAD on its recent climb

am I calling anything different now ?

Dow30 > 10,470 sell TagCHF buy GBP on CONTINUED rebound trade and I still like AUD for a cheeky buy if this happens ....

Dow 30< 10,435 buy TAGCHF sell CAD and or NZD (corrections) or EUR (continued trend down but shes starting to look oversold ?)

easy then :smart:
N

 

[NVP]

Neil,
what instrument do you mean when you say Dow30? Are you looking at a DJIA index 30 variant or something else? I can't find it on IB.

Adam

Hi Adam

use whatever you have that is at 10,000 levels

ODL/FXCM has a futures version that charts 24/7 so good continuity

N

 

[NVP]

painful today

am I calling anything different now ?

Dow30 > 10,470 sell TagCHF buy GBP on CONTINUED rebound trade and I still like AUD for a cheeky buy if this happens ....

Dow 30< 10,435 buy TAGCHF sell CAD and or NZD (corrections) or EUR (continued trend down but shes starting to look oversold ?)

easy then :smart:
N

jees these 2 guys are not listening to me and gatecrashing the trades already !

about a 30 point range spread on US30 futures today - not surprising though as the market is closed !!!!

N

 

[NVP]

hey all

as suspected today - this (for me) is like having a blindfold on whist trying to drive

carnage will inevitably follow !

I have tried to call a few today using my experience of the FXcorrelator - and if the market had been open then inevitably I would have had more confidence in plays as the US30 responded (or didnt)

anyway enough of this its going nowhere today :whistling

until tomorrow
N

 

[NVP]

hey all

the scalper is still out there remember ........I personally would not touch it below the 15m TF though really

heres the 15m TF today ..........not bad at all considering the markets were closed in the us

that GBP fall was to early and did not have the Tag confirmation going up across the Zero until later on .......common sence would have not traded it as GBP could have retraced instantly

N