Dentalfloss
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Best Thread Correlation Trading - Basic Ideas and Strategies
NVP
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hey all
slow start to week so far ..........nothing much moving outside +/- 10 pips yet from 6am so im pretty light so far
USD bull alongside GBP ....interesting mix that
ive had one scalp out of EU so far selling under that long range on 1min from 1165 down to 1150
.....havnt been back in yet ......
Yen selling as well so no opps on EJ as yet
N
slow start to week so far ..........nothing much moving outside +/- 10 pips yet from 6am so im pretty light so far
USD bull alongside GBP ....interesting mix that
ive had one scalp out of EU so far selling under that long range on 1min from 1165 down to 1150
.....havnt been back in yet ......
Yen selling as well so no opps on EJ as yet
N
NVP
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(reproduced from other thread)
I also took a look at Gold myself earlier ....not really my bag but i have traded it in the past ...mainly using Strengthmeter analysis
Granted - Gold has been impressive since June ....and that 1320s - 1540's kicker was all off of a strengthening USD index .....so 10/10 for effort ...
currently rangy ....USD has softened in the last month but it hasnt kicked Gold Bulls into action as yet ....
personally i need to see some action ........I wouldnt chase it up without some confirming patterns .....
loads more fun stuff out there to trade than the paint drying daily's .....
having said that I do like what Golds doing on 1 hour TF ........that crash south worth a rebuy at moment ....usd coming off the pace today but gold holding nicely so far .....I would chase up if it breaks the 1488's and take a tight stop say on the latest lows 1482...........especially if usd keeps tanking today
N
I also took a look at Gold myself earlier ....not really my bag but i have traded it in the past ...mainly using Strengthmeter analysis
Granted - Gold has been impressive since June ....and that 1320s - 1540's kicker was all off of a strengthening USD index .....so 10/10 for effort ...
currently rangy ....USD has softened in the last month but it hasnt kicked Gold Bulls into action as yet ....
personally i need to see some action ........I wouldnt chase it up without some confirming patterns .....
loads more fun stuff out there to trade than the paint drying daily's .....
having said that I do like what Golds doing on 1 hour TF ........that crash south worth a rebuy at moment ....usd coming off the pace today but gold holding nicely so far .....I would chase up if it breaks the 1488's and take a tight stop say on the latest lows 1482...........especially if usd keeps tanking today
N
NVP
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another reproduced post of today :-
How I turned £3000 into £20,000 in 6 Weeks! (Thread)
me:-
to be honest it depends on the number of trades taken to achieve that ROI ......(670%)
But 99% of profitable and experienced traders would agree this is ludicrous return expectations for risk needed in just a 6 week session and minimal trades ..........crazy !
for example
my max trade is always 2% of bank so max trade was £60 per trade on £3,000 open
even scalping say at 70% success rate and 1:1 return when successful = (thats good)
Loss = £60 X 30% = £18-00 Loss
Gains = £60 X 70% = £42-00 Gain
Net = +£24-00 per trade net profit = (0.8 % of Bank profit per trade)
so (excluding increasing the trading size as bank increases and transaction costs) you will need
£17,000 / £24 = 708 trades to get to a £20,000 bank in 6 weeks - (no increase in stake)
or around approximately 250 trades if you increase your stake to match 2% of Bank
(so final trades being approx £400 per trade by the time you hit those £20,000 levels)
personally even scalping i am struggling to hit even 4-5 good net trades in a session fitting criteria above
im pretty happy with 2-3% of bank in a 4 hour session .......thats good going on average
so lets say 2 scalping sessions a day X 6 solid weeks = 6 weeks X 5 days a week X 2 sessions = 60 sessions
60 session at 1% return per session gets me a £1,800 profit from £3,000 stake (Flat £60 a trade) = 60% ROI
60 session at 2% return per session gets me a £3,600 profit from £3,000 stake (Flat £60 a trade) = 120% ROI
OR £2,290 on 1% per session if i was scaling up per trade (I would be around £105 stake a trade by then) = 77% ROI
OR £6275 on 2% per session if i was scaling up per trade (I would be around £147 stake a trade by then) = 209% ROI
and this is very good and consistent trading .........with some really good days needed as well to offset the many flat low return days .....
so please dont believe the hype on so many promises out there....the reality is much harsher
N
How I turned £3000 into £20,000 in 6 Weeks! (Thread)
me:-
to be honest it depends on the number of trades taken to achieve that ROI ......(670%)
But 99% of profitable and experienced traders would agree this is ludicrous return expectations for risk needed in just a 6 week session and minimal trades ..........crazy !
for example
my max trade is always 2% of bank so max trade was £60 per trade on £3,000 open
even scalping say at 70% success rate and 1:1 return when successful = (thats good)
Loss = £60 X 30% = £18-00 Loss
Gains = £60 X 70% = £42-00 Gain
Net = +£24-00 per trade net profit = (0.8 % of Bank profit per trade)
so (excluding increasing the trading size as bank increases and transaction costs) you will need
£17,000 / £24 = 708 trades to get to a £20,000 bank in 6 weeks - (no increase in stake)
or around approximately 250 trades if you increase your stake to match 2% of Bank
(so final trades being approx £400 per trade by the time you hit those £20,000 levels)
personally even scalping i am struggling to hit even 4-5 good net trades in a session fitting criteria above
im pretty happy with 2-3% of bank in a 4 hour session .......thats good going on average
so lets say 2 scalping sessions a day X 6 solid weeks = 6 weeks X 5 days a week X 2 sessions = 60 sessions
60 session at 1% return per session gets me a £1,800 profit from £3,000 stake (Flat £60 a trade) = 60% ROI
60 session at 2% return per session gets me a £3,600 profit from £3,000 stake (Flat £60 a trade) = 120% ROI
OR £2,290 on 1% per session if i was scaling up per trade (I would be around £105 stake a trade by then) = 77% ROI
OR £6275 on 2% per session if i was scaling up per trade (I would be around £147 stake a trade by then) = 209% ROI
and this is very good and consistent trading .........with some really good days needed as well to offset the many flat low return days .....
so please dont believe the hype on so many promises out there....the reality is much harsher
N
NVP
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hey all
A good week for buying USD ....the greenback been solid every day from money ...made positive gains Daily so far ...thats 4 from 4 ......quite rare in fact (hint !!!)
anyway great times to buy USD in all its pairs ......and also to sell Gold/USD as well ......clearly when USD is strong it will force the price of Gold (in dollars) South - unless Raw Gold index is booming as well to offset the negativity
in my goldmeter index below you can see it got boomed hard this week ......the goldmeter is available below in links or ive uploaded it again
N
A good week for buying USD ....the greenback been solid every day from money ...made positive gains Daily so far ...thats 4 from 4 ......quite rare in fact (hint !!!)
anyway great times to buy USD in all its pairs ......and also to sell Gold/USD as well ......clearly when USD is strong it will force the price of Gold (in dollars) South - unless Raw Gold index is booming as well to offset the negativity
in my goldmeter index below you can see it got boomed hard this week ......the goldmeter is available below in links or ive uploaded it again
N
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Hi NVP thank you for your gold analysis.
Thought you might be interested in seeing what the VRM has to say about gold. I have been experimenting with the VRM algorithm using the COMEX front month gold future contract GC-1. VRM charts attached. Weekly chart to the left. Daily chart to the right. GC-1 has moved below the middle of its long term trend channel 1511.81 where its finding resistance . The long term trend channel is moving sideways.
VRM explained in first post of thread "Predicting future FX support and resistance levels using mathematics"
NVP
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ok interesting start to week
yen and usd tag team are selling well so far .....lovving it
bloody europeans wont come north...........its the NZD , AUD show so far .....excellent tribal patterns
so im scalping NZDUSD wierdly so far ....not even Cad has stepped up to buy .....normally a great play when most europeans are are sticking to yen usd direction
NU 6350s to mid 65's so far .....
im watching Cable though ....GBP has sprung more bull than bear so far today so willing to hammer it again if offered bloody 2791 bear spike south toooo fast to buy back into so its 2800 now ......watching
N
yen and usd tag team are selling well so far .....lovving it
bloody europeans wont come north...........its the NZD , AUD show so far .....excellent tribal patterns
so im scalping NZDUSD wierdly so far ....not even Cad has stepped up to buy .....normally a great play when most europeans are are sticking to yen usd direction
NU 6350s to mid 65's so far .....
im watching Cable though ....GBP has sprung more bull than bear so far today so willing to hammer it again if offered bloody 2791 bear spike south toooo fast to buy back into so its 2800 now ......watching
N
NVP
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Trading Composure
tradingcomposure.com
great stuff from Yvan ...
NVP
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in looking at some old goldmeter stuff i found this 2015 link to when i actually published some of my daily live performance at the time .......to all scalpers and traderrs whatever I hope this proves it can be done if you work hard and find something that works for you
N
N
Best Thread - Correlation Trading - Basic Ideas and Strategies
could have had ucad rebuys off 3234/5 to 39 so far .........but missed it
www.trade2win.com
N thank you for your analysis.
Today's VRM chart for GBPUSD attached.
VRM explained in first post of thread "Predicting future FX support and resistance levels using mathematics"
VRM says bottom of GBPUSD short term trend channel 1.2744 just collided with middle of its long term trend channel 1.2742 and hence today's rally. GBPUSD just about reached the middle of its short term trend channel at 1.2901. Hence the final stall.
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NVP
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heres an extract from an interesting conversation i am having with another trader here at T2win - do not imagine i am disrepecting my own thread here - as it has a wealth of knowledge and advice for traders new to Forex and relative strength - so read it from day 1 if you want to learn - however if you are and expert Trader in your field as FiboTrader is ..i'm merely trying to save him some time
hey FT
Dont waste your valuable time on the Big correlation thread (unless you really want to) ...someone of your talents will learn little
It grew and grew into a beast as i continued to refine certain areas and test new boundaries ......I also met many fine traders and programmers along the way and they helped me create many derivatives of the humble core FXCorrelator model (that regrettably will never be offered to the General public)
I ditched the intermarket analysis (a la Murphy and others) years ago as for me it does'nt work - like many trading systems that are claimed to work by mysterious gurus and other bullshit artists....I do not mean to sound disrespectful of his work as it was better than most of the thousands i have studied....
Sure on the face of it intermarket correlation and fuzzy logic naturally exists at a superficial level ......and moderate returns are possible when the patterns and correlations are right ......but I have found them transient and insufficient to justify extended focus and interest
in the end after hundreds of mutated experiments I am pretty simple and purist these days .....My strengthmeter and its derivatives give me an edge in spotting the best pairs to trade and then my secondary more PA / indicator based systems flag up key patterns and signals when they offer......candy from a baby as long as the market has volume and time is right
all i do these days at T2win and other forums is share some really basic ideas and concepts around relative strength and try to enthuse and encourage Forex traders to perhaps use them in their strategies
I cannot believe how dumb most forex traders are......just following 1 or 2 key pairs religiously when the G8 offers 28 pairs to trade ...... 24/7 ......3 main trading sessions a day and 5.5 days a week .....they trade just say 5-10% of the available active market and feed on scraps ......happily
more money available to me I guess and Traders like yourself where you have a phenomenal edge and are bemused and amazed that others dont see it or follow it ......about 95%+ of them in fact (again luckily for us)
PART 2
I can trade a variety of ways based on what the market is telling me
1 - Continuations into trend
2 - Breakouts (either direction)
3 - Range bound S/R trading
4 - O/B and O/S - retraces
so pretty much the whole range of core stuff most traders use ........probably 35% of the time i'm on strategy 1 when i scalp as long as market is suitable .....35% on Strategy 4 , and 15% on the other 2 ........its hard to be generalist as each market / session is different ...I scalp 90% of the time as any higher timeframes are like watching paint dry and i have less control on external market News and unforseen events...and holding a trade over a weekend would put me in an early grave regardless of ATR and Stop involved .....just my own personal trading personality and character ...I like it fast and tight .... and was made for scalping
my previous post in truth is probably a little too simplistic in truth about "follow what the G8 are doing" and relative strength / weakness .......I do also follow a lot of specific patterns and behaviours of the individual G8 currency indexes and also many tribal / group patterns that give big clues to what is going to happen next .....
again pretty confidential although i let a few out on my thread over the years ....but many are not rocket science ....like Yen and USD in pattern formation both strong or weak is a great market dynamic that will offer easy money on trading the other currencies against them ....although as you are aware these collaborations can disappear much faster than the good old days of Risk on risk off ......(god i miss the easy days of the past )...sprinkle in some CHF correlation as well to spell a full risk pattern and it was easy times.....
there are many many ways to find an edge in trading ......but as in life and business - only a small % master their art and harvest the returns and profits therein ......the others merely exist to feed them as they blindly follow the next faddish system or market with zero discipline or understanding of the trading art.....
good trading
N
hey FT
Dont waste your valuable time on the Big correlation thread (unless you really want to) ...someone of your talents will learn little
It grew and grew into a beast as i continued to refine certain areas and test new boundaries ......I also met many fine traders and programmers along the way and they helped me create many derivatives of the humble core FXCorrelator model (that regrettably will never be offered to the General public)
I ditched the intermarket analysis (a la Murphy and others) years ago as for me it does'nt work - like many trading systems that are claimed to work by mysterious gurus and other bullshit artists....I do not mean to sound disrespectful of his work as it was better than most of the thousands i have studied....
Sure on the face of it intermarket correlation and fuzzy logic naturally exists at a superficial level ......and moderate returns are possible when the patterns and correlations are right ......but I have found them transient and insufficient to justify extended focus and interest
in the end after hundreds of mutated experiments I am pretty simple and purist these days .....My strengthmeter and its derivatives give me an edge in spotting the best pairs to trade and then my secondary more PA / indicator based systems flag up key patterns and signals when they offer......candy from a baby as long as the market has volume and time is right
all i do these days at T2win and other forums is share some really basic ideas and concepts around relative strength and try to enthuse and encourage Forex traders to perhaps use them in their strategies
I cannot believe how dumb most forex traders are......just following 1 or 2 key pairs religiously when the G8 offers 28 pairs to trade ...... 24/7 ......3 main trading sessions a day and 5.5 days a week .....they trade just say 5-10% of the available active market and feed on scraps ......happily
more money available to me I guess and Traders like yourself where you have a phenomenal edge and are bemused and amazed that others dont see it or follow it ......about 95%+ of them in fact (again luckily for us)
PART 2
I can trade a variety of ways based on what the market is telling me
1 - Continuations into trend
2 - Breakouts (either direction)
3 - Range bound S/R trading
4 - O/B and O/S - retraces
so pretty much the whole range of core stuff most traders use ........probably 35% of the time i'm on strategy 1 when i scalp as long as market is suitable .....35% on Strategy 4 , and 15% on the other 2 ........its hard to be generalist as each market / session is different ...I scalp 90% of the time as any higher timeframes are like watching paint dry and i have less control on external market News and unforseen events...and holding a trade over a weekend would put me in an early grave regardless of ATR and Stop involved .....just my own personal trading personality and character ...I like it fast and tight .... and was made for scalping
my previous post in truth is probably a little too simplistic in truth about "follow what the G8 are doing" and relative strength / weakness .......I do also follow a lot of specific patterns and behaviours of the individual G8 currency indexes and also many tribal / group patterns that give big clues to what is going to happen next .....
again pretty confidential although i let a few out on my thread over the years ....but many are not rocket science ....like Yen and USD in pattern formation both strong or weak is a great market dynamic that will offer easy money on trading the other currencies against them ....although as you are aware these collaborations can disappear much faster than the good old days of Risk on risk off ......(god i miss the easy days of the past )...sprinkle in some CHF correlation as well to spell a full risk pattern and it was easy times.....
there are many many ways to find an edge in trading ......but as in life and business - only a small % master their art and harvest the returns and profits therein ......the others merely exist to feed them as they blindly follow the next faddish system or market with zero discipline or understanding of the trading art.....
good trading
N
Dentalfloss
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dollar in rez
Dentalfloss
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but..in a minor supp area
NVP
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correspondance with FiboTrader has tempted me to start to offer some observations on other markets
I obviously cannot use my Strengthmeter analysis and strategies as i can on Forex (actually i can in some markets but thats another story) .....but i can use my secondary systems to trade situatoins with high probability outcomes
probably higher TFs as i havnt got physical time to scalp them as well
working on it ...watch this space
N
I obviously cannot use my Strengthmeter analysis and strategies as i can on Forex (actually i can in some markets but thats another story) .....but i can use my secondary systems to trade situatoins with high probability outcomes
probably higher TFs as i havnt got physical time to scalp them as well
working on it ...watch this space
N
trendie
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Part 1 and Part 2 encapsulates so much insight, NVP.
Especially about the amounts of experimentation needed to find something workable.
Its always the way.
I think your comment about traders fixating on just 1-2 pairs reflects the intra-day, sitting-at-screen mentality. I think you have to broaden your TFs before you feel you have the time to look at how other pairs react. (something I twigged when I traded whilst contracting.)
Look forward to reading your ideas.
Especially about the amounts of experimentation needed to find something workable.
Its always the way.
I think your comment about traders fixating on just 1-2 pairs reflects the intra-day, sitting-at-screen mentality. I think you have to broaden your TFs before you feel you have the time to look at how other pairs react. (something I twigged when I traded whilst contracting.)
Look forward to reading your ideas.
