The most interesting systems are to be found at Attain Capital Management and Striker Securities.
Very Few of these systems are robust enough to operate without large drawdowns,which makes it
too difficult to trade them.I'm still looking for the ideal system after three years searching with
a systems trader in Louisiana.He's been looking for 20 years.Sooner or later they all fall apart.
We're still hopeful.
Very Few of these systems are robust enough to operate without large drawdowns,which makes it
too difficult to trade them.I'm still looking for the ideal system after three years searching with
a systems trader in Louisiana.He's been looking for 20 years.Sooner or later they all fall apart.
We're still hopeful.
mr_cassandra
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A profit every time
I’m in no way trying to make a joke or ‘pithy’ comment but I feel compelled to say that if such a thing existed, the world would be littered with rich men. I don’t think that any system or method, bar none, is highly likely to make a profit every time.
On the other hand, there’s a lot of merit to looking for systems where winners outnumber losers in both trade count and percents banked; while having acceptable drawdown levels.
My own system is geared to trades that last weeks and months, so would be painfully boring to many traders.
As an example: my program, over the last 8.6 years has made 61 trades and 18 of them have been losers. Bear in mind I don’t make profits like the people here are used to but my program shows an annualized gain of 36% per year over both the backtest and realtime period.
My website, which exists only to give answers to the most common questions I get can be found by googling mvp signal system.
Regards, Steve
I’m in no way trying to make a joke or ‘pithy’ comment but I feel compelled to say that if such a thing existed, the world would be littered with rich men. I don’t think that any system or method, bar none, is highly likely to make a profit every time.
On the other hand, there’s a lot of merit to looking for systems where winners outnumber losers in both trade count and percents banked; while having acceptable drawdown levels.
My own system is geared to trades that last weeks and months, so would be painfully boring to many traders.
As an example: my program, over the last 8.6 years has made 61 trades and 18 of them have been losers. Bear in mind I don’t make profits like the people here are used to but my program shows an annualized gain of 36% per year over both the backtest and realtime period.
My website, which exists only to give answers to the most common questions I get can be found by googling mvp signal system.
Regards, Steve
ferrrris said:
A concept that I've based some systems on that were successful for a good long stint (in back testing mind you) is 'buying/selling at value'. In its most painfully simple form, its buying on a weekly up trend when the daily chart declines to its ema and starts to tick up (experiment with what period ema), selling on weekly down trend when daily rallies to its ema and starts to tick down. Using orders to get you in at recent short-term peaks (for buying) and troughs (for selling).
Choosing markets that are liquid, nice big volumes, reasonably expensive and blue chip. If its too volatile and has really big intraday price ranges you'll be battered around, so skip them and go for steady markets that show about three or more rally/corrections per intermediate trend. Take a look at SBRY (sainsbury's)at the last 6 months price pattern to get an idea of the ideal market behaviour for this method).
Throw in CCI, price channels and MACD histogram to help with timing.
Need to flesh that out but its actually an effective basis for a short to intermediate trading system. Simple is often best. Doesn't trade that often either, maybe once every few months (depending on the market).
Also consider portfolio trading rather than sticking to just a few markets. Its like psychology, you can never predict what one individual will do 100% but a crowd is much easier to predict. In testing I have noticed that a good system has reasonably consistent performance in a portfolio but there are no individual markets that consistently win for a long period with it! So if you stuck with the top performers with a system, the likelihood is they would start to lose at some stage! But the overall performance with a portfolio is more consistent! If commissions are not a problem (i.e. SBs and CFDs) I would try testing small position sizes with a reasonable size portfolio of stock and see what the results would be. Also, using your own indexes is quite useful for gauging the tides of the market. I have constructed several indexes of several portfolios and often you will get fore warnings of a change in general market direction before the whole market shifts and follows. Find out what the leading stocks are for the portfolio and make their direction a part of your system too.
Choosing markets that are liquid, nice big volumes, reasonably expensive and blue chip. If its too volatile and has really big intraday price ranges you'll be battered around, so skip them and go for steady markets that show about three or more rally/corrections per intermediate trend. Take a look at SBRY (sainsbury's)at the last 6 months price pattern to get an idea of the ideal market behaviour for this method).
Throw in CCI, price channels and MACD histogram to help with timing.
Need to flesh that out but its actually an effective basis for a short to intermediate trading system. Simple is often best. Doesn't trade that often either, maybe once every few months (depending on the market).
Also consider portfolio trading rather than sticking to just a few markets. Its like psychology, you can never predict what one individual will do 100% but a crowd is much easier to predict. In testing I have noticed that a good system has reasonably consistent performance in a portfolio but there are no individual markets that consistently win for a long period with it! So if you stuck with the top performers with a system, the likelihood is they would start to lose at some stage! But the overall performance with a portfolio is more consistent! If commissions are not a problem (i.e. SBs and CFDs) I would try testing small position sizes with a reasonable size portfolio of stock and see what the results would be. Also, using your own indexes is quite useful for gauging the tides of the market. I have constructed several indexes of several portfolios and often you will get fore warnings of a change in general market direction before the whole market shifts and follows. Find out what the leading stocks are for the portfolio and make their direction a part of your system too.
Very good points. I went to hear Alpesh Patel talking a couple of weeks ago and he said exactly this. He also discussed in some detail the "ideal number of items" for a portfolio of this nature, and proved at some length that fewer than 13 at a time is "too risky" for the conservative investor, while more than "15" is completely unnecessary, adding labour without reducing risk. He was ridiculing fund managers who hold 200 different stocks, with overall risk less than 1% lower than if they held only 15. Interesting.pkfryer said:
mr_cassandra
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Backtest versus your own money at risk
This was one lesson I learned when I started my program. Simply put, its perilously easy to look at reams of backtest data and feel that you could have done that. But in the real world, a drawdown of say 8% is very different when its your money in real life; than if its a set of numberss in a large spreadsheet.
I ran into a secondary problem in that life enjoys supplying you with situations you haven't programmed and this can be a mess to a mechancial system.
Ironically, despite 100's of hours programming work on mvp, I feel my largest leap forward was when I built in logic that allowed the program to change its mind if it had sold too soon or bought too soon.
What this was a huge help in was making sure if the latest trade was wrong, it didn't stay wrong long.
Naturally it doesn't catch every bottom & top perfectly but this objection (common among system critics) is foolish because NOTHING catches every turn perfect except armchair system quarterbacks.
Regards Steve
This was one lesson I learned when I started my program. Simply put, its perilously easy to look at reams of backtest data and feel that you could have done that. But in the real world, a drawdown of say 8% is very different when its your money in real life; than if its a set of numberss in a large spreadsheet.
I ran into a secondary problem in that life enjoys supplying you with situations you haven't programmed and this can be a mess to a mechancial system.
Ironically, despite 100's of hours programming work on mvp, I feel my largest leap forward was when I built in logic that allowed the program to change its mind if it had sold too soon or bought too soon.
What this was a huge help in was making sure if the latest trade was wrong, it didn't stay wrong long.
Naturally it doesn't catch every bottom & top perfectly but this objection (common among system critics) is foolish because NOTHING catches every turn perfect except armchair system quarterbacks.
Regards Steve
pkfryer said:
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Thats interesting Roberto that this Alphel chap has come to the same conclusion, I haven't read much stuff on portfolio trading and have come to the conclusions I have through many months of testing. I started off testing one market at a time and started to see a consistent pattern of behaviour. e.g. a system worked great for a few years on a market then started to drop off until it started to lose. It seemed that markets phase in and out with a system consistently.
I was actually using a portfolio of over 200 stocks for testing, most of the markets had a signal every month or two and these trades would last for several weeks. I hadn't got to the stage of testing what would be the best size portfolio or which markets to remove from the testing. So the last 5 years flat line could have been removed through tweaking the portfolio members so they would have to qualify for inclusion. I had an idea that this would be the way to go. Have a large base of stocks that a system views, but have a dynamic portfolio that is selected by the system. e.g. when a stock starts to change behaviour it is disqualified or qualified for exclusion/inclusion in the portfolio. If such a small portfolio size as 15 is optimum then this could be a good direction to go in, making the qualifying behaviour/conditions more selective than inclusive.
I was actually using a portfolio of over 200 stocks for testing, most of the markets had a signal every month or two and these trades would last for several weeks. I hadn't got to the stage of testing what would be the best size portfolio or which markets to remove from the testing. So the last 5 years flat line could have been removed through tweaking the portfolio members so they would have to qualify for inclusion. I had an idea that this would be the way to go. Have a large base of stocks that a system views, but have a dynamic portfolio that is selected by the system. e.g. when a stock starts to change behaviour it is disqualified or qualified for exclusion/inclusion in the portfolio. If such a small portfolio size as 15 is optimum then this could be a good direction to go in, making the qualifying behaviour/conditions more selective than inclusive.
mr_cassandra
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$amsi,$nasi & $nysi summations still falling
As well as bpcompq and bpnya. Put call ratio at .9 BUT this needs to be adjusted for index options and qqqq option hijinks; both of which distort its original use as a contrarian indicator.
As well as bpcompq and bpnya. Put call ratio at .9 BUT this needs to be adjusted for index options and qqqq option hijinks; both of which distort its original use as a contrarian indicator.
Will This Help?
I have been keeping this one for occasions like this. It's not mine, and I don't recall who wrote this. I copied it from the net a long while ago.
**********************************************************************************************
Trade like a JACKASS
First, wait for the market to reach the point at which you believe it cannot or will not go any higher…..why? because you say so!
Next, SHORT at this price level.
Next, BUY a “DEEEEEEEEEEP” in the money Call Option (at least 2 to 3 strike prices away from the current market). Example: ES is @ 1044, you buy the 990 Call.
Place your Call Option BUY order @ “market price”
NOTE: Ignore the laughter on the other side of the phone from your brokers’ office. He will laugh out loud, and so will the guys in the Options Pit….you will be the ASS of the day as your broker thanks you rhetorically for making them money on the severely inflated Option premium price. In short, you have now successfully traded like a true “JACKASS”.
Finally, HOLD on to your position till you are forced to exercise your Call Option and/or your brokers force you to liquidate because the cash value of your account is in deficit.
Believe it or not? Although this is intended to be “FUNNY” and entertaining, this is actually a VALID method of trading and if done correctly will actually make money – A LOT OF MONEY!!
Even if you are wrong on the market direction you will still unwind the position at a PROFIT instead of a loss!! --- now, go figure it out.
**********************************************************************************************
I have been keeping this one for occasions like this. It's not mine, and I don't recall who wrote this. I copied it from the net a long while ago.
**********************************************************************************************
Trade like a JACKASS
First, wait for the market to reach the point at which you believe it cannot or will not go any higher…..why? because you say so!
Next, SHORT at this price level.
Next, BUY a “DEEEEEEEEEEP” in the money Call Option (at least 2 to 3 strike prices away from the current market). Example: ES is @ 1044, you buy the 990 Call.
Place your Call Option BUY order @ “market price”
NOTE: Ignore the laughter on the other side of the phone from your brokers’ office. He will laugh out loud, and so will the guys in the Options Pit….you will be the ASS of the day as your broker thanks you rhetorically for making them money on the severely inflated Option premium price. In short, you have now successfully traded like a true “JACKASS”.
Finally, HOLD on to your position till you are forced to exercise your Call Option and/or your brokers force you to liquidate because the cash value of your account is in deficit.
Believe it or not? Although this is intended to be “FUNNY” and entertaining, this is actually a VALID method of trading and if done correctly will actually make money – A LOT OF MONEY!!
Even if you are wrong on the market direction you will still unwind the position at a PROFIT instead of a loss!! --- now, go figure it out.
**********************************************************************************************
mr_cassandra
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Afternoon lynx.
I'm not sure how to take that post but anyway my program is the result of about 4 years work and many mistakes/Improvemnents based on real-time experience. It can be googled as the mvp signal system and I provide anyone who asks with the actual program code, albeit an obsolete version.
Its enough for anyone to substantiate the style and structure of what I’m doing. In addition, after a brief stint at collective2.com, I decided I'm making enough money trading my own capital as compared to ‘selling’ the system signals.
That being said, I’m back to posting public signals in real-time at clearstaion.com umpix and uipix boards.
Over the years I've received many comments from armchair system quarterbacks with various cliched euphemisms as to why this can't be done. few if any, were able to elaborate on what work of their own they had done.
Regards and best of luck with your investing, Steve
I'm not sure how to take that post but anyway my program is the result of about 4 years work and many mistakes/Improvemnents based on real-time experience. It can be googled as the mvp signal system and I provide anyone who asks with the actual program code, albeit an obsolete version.
Its enough for anyone to substantiate the style and structure of what I’m doing. In addition, after a brief stint at collective2.com, I decided I'm making enough money trading my own capital as compared to ‘selling’ the system signals.
That being said, I’m back to posting public signals in real-time at clearstaion.com umpix and uipix boards.
Over the years I've received many comments from armchair system quarterbacks with various cliched euphemisms as to why this can't be done. few if any, were able to elaborate on what work of their own they had done.
Regards and best of luck with your investing, Steve
lynx said:
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100% Trading System
This year I seem to have developed the perfect trading system which is getting on for 100% successful. I can guarantee it !!!!
The rules are extremely simple;
1) When I buy a stock or close a short position this is the signal for traders to SELL.
2) When I sell a stock or close a long position this is the signal for a trader BUY.
This system has been developed at quiyte a finacial cost to me over the last 4 months, although I have to say this system would not have worked last year.
This year I seem to have developed the perfect trading system which is getting on for 100% successful. I can guarantee it !!!!
The rules are extremely simple;
1) When I buy a stock or close a short position this is the signal for traders to SELL.
2) When I sell a stock or close a long position this is the signal for a trader BUY.
This system has been developed at quiyte a finacial cost to me over the last 4 months, although I have to say this system would not have worked last year.
mr_cassandra
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Strongly agree
I lurk the clearstation qqqq board a lot and see system after system disappoint people because it either has a drawdown or losing trade. Despite protestations to the contrary, I suspect thats exactly what many people are seeking.
They all say I know, I know but jump like s scalded frog when they get a drawdown or a loss.
JonnyT said:
I lurk the clearstation qqqq board a lot and see system after system disappoint people because it either has a drawdown or losing trade. Despite protestations to the contrary, I suspect thats exactly what many people are seeking.
They all say I know, I know but jump like s scalded frog when they get a drawdown or a loss.
neil
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Chasing rainbows
JT and Cassandra are right. Take a look at the Moneytec forums where the hopeful flock like moths around a flame everytime a new "system" is published. Like volume bars, initial interest is high but fades away when the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow proves as elusive as ever. Moneytec.com is one of many sites littered with the burnt out shells of recently discarded "winning systems".
mr_cassandra said:
JT and Cassandra are right. Take a look at the Moneytec forums where the hopeful flock like moths around a flame everytime a new "system" is published. Like volume bars, initial interest is high but fades away when the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow proves as elusive as ever. Moneytec.com is one of many sites littered with the burnt out shells of recently discarded "winning systems".
mr_cassandra
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Win statistics mvp signal system v21.U
I agree with other repsponses you've gotten that such a thing doesn't exist. The key for anyones system is that winners outwiegh losers enough to justify the whole effort.
My program trades the SP400 and as such, I don't know if its of interest on these boards where there seems to be a lot of interest in currency trading but anyway, here's the current stats based on recent live trading and extensive back-testing.
Over 9.3 years the program has called for 27 buys and 12 shorts (one short currently in play).
Of all those signals, 3 were losers, with the worst loss being 2.5% (this was with 100% margin on mdy(sp400).
Total overall performance includes large gains during the nasdaq bear market on shorts and I suspect the current annualized return over the 9.3 years will fade; but is currently 87.2%.
One thing most investors could not tolerate about my systems trades is the drawdowns. There have been drawdowns up to 19.6% (9.8% if not on margin on trades that eventually ended with a profit if held and not bailed out on.
Its one thing for me as the system programmer to 'stay the course' because I'm looking at all that data, but I can't imagine an outsider coming in and holding on thru a drawdown of 19.6%.
I've gone over each case of an excessive drawdown and there were 3. The asian tiger economic meltdown of fall 1998, Sept.11, 2001 and one during the nasdaq bear market. Each of these cases were abnormal events that no program or person can truly foresee.
Anyway, I would return to the original point that no system or person can get every trade perfect every time. Its my opinion that once you get beyond that myth, only then can you truly succeed by trying to get most of the trades most of the time.
General info on my program is at www.angelfire.com/ma4/mr_cassandra/MainPage.html
Regards, Steve
I agree with other repsponses you've gotten that such a thing doesn't exist. The key for anyones system is that winners outwiegh losers enough to justify the whole effort.
My program trades the SP400 and as such, I don't know if its of interest on these boards where there seems to be a lot of interest in currency trading but anyway, here's the current stats based on recent live trading and extensive back-testing.
Over 9.3 years the program has called for 27 buys and 12 shorts (one short currently in play).
Of all those signals, 3 were losers, with the worst loss being 2.5% (this was with 100% margin on mdy(sp400).
Total overall performance includes large gains during the nasdaq bear market on shorts and I suspect the current annualized return over the 9.3 years will fade; but is currently 87.2%.
One thing most investors could not tolerate about my systems trades is the drawdowns. There have been drawdowns up to 19.6% (9.8% if not on margin on trades that eventually ended with a profit if held and not bailed out on.
Its one thing for me as the system programmer to 'stay the course' because I'm looking at all that data, but I can't imagine an outsider coming in and holding on thru a drawdown of 19.6%.
I've gone over each case of an excessive drawdown and there were 3. The asian tiger economic meltdown of fall 1998, Sept.11, 2001 and one during the nasdaq bear market. Each of these cases were abnormal events that no program or person can truly foresee.
Anyway, I would return to the original point that no system or person can get every trade perfect every time. Its my opinion that once you get beyond that myth, only then can you truly succeed by trying to get most of the trades most of the time.
General info on my program is at www.angelfire.com/ma4/mr_cassandra/MainPage.html
Regards, Steve
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To the ChowClown
all the sofware to get the info one might need has driven me to run three pc's,well actually
4, I have a setup I can take anywhere. Bluetooth thing.But the easier and faster you can
make your trading can save you a lot of money down the road.
You guy's talk a lot about systems and strategies, but you know what, I've been trading
for about 2 years and I don't really have an iron clad system or stradegie, what I did when I first started was to paper trade, and paper trade till the cows came home. But I traded like
I would have if I were trading with money in the real thing. I kept copies of the trades, and
compared one trade to another, and traded every possible way you could think of . I don't
profess to be the best or anything close to it, but you know what, I have found that this is
a people's market and they are the driving force that creates the market moves.If maybe you can see what they do in all the different chart moves you just might give yourself a small edge.Big biz. I think is more predictable than millions of individuals trying to hammer out a few wins. Take a good look at your charts, compare, people have a tendencey to
get in a grove, repeat themselves, do things over and over, you can pick up on this very thing in there trades. I see it all the time, can you?
kenn.
I have accounts with the both of these brokers, and they are very good. Traversing throughChowClown said:
all the sofware to get the info one might need has driven me to run three pc's,well actually
4, I have a setup I can take anywhere. Bluetooth thing.But the easier and faster you can
make your trading can save you a lot of money down the road.
You guy's talk a lot about systems and strategies, but you know what, I've been trading
for about 2 years and I don't really have an iron clad system or stradegie, what I did when I first started was to paper trade, and paper trade till the cows came home. But I traded like
I would have if I were trading with money in the real thing. I kept copies of the trades, and
compared one trade to another, and traded every possible way you could think of . I don't
profess to be the best or anything close to it, but you know what, I have found that this is
a people's market and they are the driving force that creates the market moves.If maybe you can see what they do in all the different chart moves you just might give yourself a small edge.Big biz. I think is more predictable than millions of individuals trying to hammer out a few wins. Take a good look at your charts, compare, people have a tendencey to
get in a grove, repeat themselves, do things over and over, you can pick up on this very thing in there trades. I see it all the time, can you?
kenn.
Hoggums
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I read with interest a lot of the opinions on here about trading systems. Personally I wouldn't touch them, partly for the reason I have no intention of sharing my system. Why should I let someone else profit from my hard work?
I think Mr cassandra is correct - people have too high expectations of systems and try them out with too few trades - they get unlucky and start off with losers then write the whole thing off.
I also see the reason a lot of these systems dont work is that they fail to evolve with the prevailing market conditions. All systems should be constantly re-assessed as the market changes.
Good Luck all.
I think Mr cassandra is correct - people have too high expectations of systems and try them out with too few trades - they get unlucky and start off with losers then write the whole thing off.
I also see the reason a lot of these systems dont work is that they fail to evolve with the prevailing market conditions. All systems should be constantly re-assessed as the market changes.
Good Luck all.
if there were 3 losers, with the worst loss being 2.5% how come biggest draw down was 19.6%?
does that mean a trade can go further than 2.5% down but won't trigger a stop? Not sure I like any system where the trade can move greater than the estimated max loss..'cause one day it will just keep on going and will never trigger a stop and that's good by to the pot.
does that mean a trade can go further than 2.5% down but won't trigger a stop? Not sure I like any system where the trade can move greater than the estimated max loss..'cause one day it will just keep on going and will never trigger a stop and that's good by to the pot.
You guy's still looking for the pie in the sky trading strad. thats going to set you financialy free????
Does any one out there use 4xmadeeasy software. Or are you charting candle sticks and pixel's?
Sounds to me like you guy's have been left behind in the real world of trading tools. I have a trading tool that finds the trades for me. I mean it finds exactly what I want in my trading. and constantly
scans all 17 currency pairs to get it for me. I have it hooked up to my cell phone, and it give's me a
call when the trade comes in. Or trade's. That's plural isn't it ? I tell you what, I have over 400 trades
that I can fax you and if you can find more than 40 lossing trades in the lot for $100 or less, you can
do a number on me with every one. Man I even have my own personal trade analist. 5 days a week.
Let me hear from all you people that share with each other. I don't like those people that are stingy.
This is kenn.
Does any one out there use 4xmadeeasy software. Or are you charting candle sticks and pixel's?
Sounds to me like you guy's have been left behind in the real world of trading tools. I have a trading tool that finds the trades for me. I mean it finds exactly what I want in my trading. and constantly
scans all 17 currency pairs to get it for me. I have it hooked up to my cell phone, and it give's me a
call when the trade comes in. Or trade's. That's plural isn't it ? I tell you what, I have over 400 trades
that I can fax you and if you can find more than 40 lossing trades in the lot for $100 or less, you can
do a number on me with every one. Man I even have my own personal trade analist. 5 days a week.
Let me hear from all you people that share with each other. I don't like those people that are stingy.
This is kenn.
FetteredChinos
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kenn said:
sounds like you are getting screwed