Concept FX

Nice winner banked yesterday (£4,500) which obviously gets back around 40% of the recent drawdown.

Steve.
 
Nice winner banked yesterday (£4,500) which obviously gets back around 40% of the recent drawdown.

Steve.
You made £4500? How big is your bank????
:eek:

And HTH did you make back 40% of the drawdown? I made a nice profit but not that large
 
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£25,000 bank.

Technically the draw-down is just over £10k (based on £25k bank). Therefore a win of just over £4,000 is around 40% of the draw-down.

Another new signal tonight but I cant see it getting triggered in a hurry.

I was watching EUR/JPY earlier and it came within a few pips of triggering - that would have been very nice because it rallied almost 200 after that!

Steve.
 
Green Shoots!

Good to see green shoots of hope for Concept. For those of you holding your breath, I hope they grow, blossom and fruit, and it all hangs low for picking. I may miss out.

I see they’ve launched another marketing campaign. “2008 was brilliant for Concept users, and 2009 has had a superb start”! Yeah right. I have to take my hat off to their copywriter. No arguing yet with the 2009 bit, but Concept users who bought mid 2008, who are probably the majority, just might not go along with the spin!

Price discounted too. It would be a nice gesture wouldn’t it if all of us who “invested” £4000, £3000, £2000 or whatever, with guaranteed 100% depreciation over the first year (thinks, would you buy this car?), and never made a penny profit were given cash back. And if we were relieved of having to pay an extra £500pa from the anniversary when “free data” stops! If that charge is not paid or waived, our investment loses even the delusion of capital value. That expensive “trading software” we invested in will simply be garbage code lying around our hard drives. In reality of course it was never more than a gimmicky way of receiving daily trading signals. A daily email or SMS would have been more convenient and flexible, but could not have been marketed as “trading software”.

I have other fish to fry thank goodness. All my trading is now done using EAs, and this week sees some more steady progress in the numbers, with equity up by 50% since Christmas. Regular readers will know that my psychology is not up to “real trading”, but should be aware that there are psychological problems with automatic trading too! For me the profits so far do represent something of a personal triumph!! Once again, the weekly result masks many frustrations and uncertainties. It’s two steps forward and one step back. I haven’t had a losing week so far, so if it happens it will be a fresh psychological challenge eh. The live account with real money progresses as follows:

1 Dec 08 Starting Capital £100
5 Dec Equity stands at £207
12 Dec Equity stands at £1,085
19 Dec Equity stands at £1,548 (draw down from £6450!!)
19 Dec Starting capital of £100 withdrawn
24 Dec Equity stands at £1,954
2 Jan Equity stands at £2,305
9 Jan Equity stands at £2,546
16 Jan Equity stands at £2,947 (draw down from £3215)

Now that the holidays are behind us, FAPT seems to be settling back into it’s old form and has been making steady profits, with a few losing trades as you might expect. I am trading at a very much reduced lot size now. However as FAPT trades only during European night, it is nice to wake up to its happy little greeting! If it continues in this vein I may slowly ease the lot size up again.

I decided to fire up Roboteer again, and it has been doing quite well so far, being responsible for most of my gain in equity over the week. But on Friday it caused worry by generating that 9% draw down. I have it set to use automatic money management, same as FAPT. Recurring dream of breathtaking exponential growth - Greed playing tricks. But also a flashback to the nightmare of 18 Dec, which I described in an earlier post - Fear playing tricks.

I have still not sorted out the intermittent system/technical problems with my own EA and/or MT4. I don’t think it is a broker problem, but cannot totally rule that out. I have had a quote to get the thing re-coded from scratch by a different guy and am mulling it, as that would also offer an opportunity to further develop the strategy. Hate to spend twice over on the same project, especially when I’m not confident it will provide the solution. But the EA has already paid for itself and some, so I will probably just go ahead with the re-code.

Apart from the potential for more profit, and the probable hedging effect, of having my own EA running alongside the others, I do think it is a good idea to try to be independent of the retailed “black box” EAs. Both FAPT and Roboteer depend on the suppliers making regular optimisations, and might stop working altogether if the service were terminated for whatever reason. Anyone know where I might buy a good “open code” EA? Fat chance.
 
Hi Sandy,

Good to have your continued participation in this thread. I still think that you are being unduly harsh towards ConceptFX – you acknowledge that if you started trading in mid 2008 then you would have suffered drawdown but it’s almost like you blame yourself or Concept for not making any money from this speculation. I’ve been in this game a long time and I’m telling you now that there is no way that you can judge the results based on only 6 months worth of trades. I have followed Concept all year (2008) and, so far as I can see, their claims of it being “an excellent year” appear well founded. Obviously if they claimed to of had ‘an excellent 6 months’ or ‘an excellent quarter’ then I could understand your complaint. To me their advertising appears reasonable. Regardless of all that, when I bought the system, I stated on this thread, and privately to board users in PM’s, that it was important to approach this system just like it was a business. I warned that a failure to do so would render users at a psychological disposition. In your own mind this appears to have happened since you label the system “garbage code which will be lying around our hard drives”. Obviously I respect your opinion and the posts which you make on here which are open and candid.

All I would point out is that experience tells me that your postings reflect more about where you are on your ‘trading journey’ than about ConceptFX or the other trading robots which you are enjoying testing at the present time. Anyone with a simple grasp of statistics could tell you that no conclusion can be drawn from the Concept results of the last 6 months yet you have written the system off before allowing its implied statistical edge to become prevalent. It’s the ‘pain’ and ‘fear of loss’ which is making you react this way rather than any rational analysis of the systems results. On a psychological level your mind is pushing you away from what it feels is unpleasant and a perception of danger and this causes you (us being typical males!) to have to justify how sensible your decision is. This why so many lose at trading – it is like a psychological ‘stop loss’ order being activated.

Whilst I feel that you will enjoy playing with your EA’s more your trading journey really needs to see you press on with, and stick to, a longer term plan. Only through this will you experience and subsequently learn psychological control. The conclusion is a simple one – either you will learn to control your psychology or your psychology will continue to control you.

Take care,
Steve.
 
Judgement called for

Steve,

I dumped Concept as a judgement decision based on my experience of Tradewin (from the same stable, with similar advertising blurb) which fizzled and even TWO YEARS LATER never recovered, and on my admittedly short term experience of Concept. This was a judgement rather than a psychological failure. You know, judgement is simply taking decisions based on incomplete information. Intuition too plays a large part. Some balance their judgement in one direction, some in the other. That is what trading involves. Judgement is required in the purchasing process and in the dumping process. I think my judgement was flawed at the purchasing stage - and certainly I was morally weak in that I was driven by the sight of that backtested equity curve which I so wanted to be true. My decision to dump was much closer to Warren Buffet's philosophy that the first rule of trading is not to lose. The only reason I never lost with Concept is because I intervened to stop losses. That too was a matter of judgement. Others just took the losses.

If the people selling Concept were selling it on the basis of a monthly sub, I would be less angry with them, and have less reason to regret my own misjudgement. You know as well as I know that they got their money up front thanks to fools like me, and they were not confident enough in their system to go the monthly sub route. And now that Concept is actually fizzling, they are just squeezing the last drops from the market. Even after Tradwin had fizzled, they asked me if I wanted to pay my extra £500 to keep the signals coming!!!

As for my still being on this thread, but maybe a bit off key, it is just to demonstrate that there are other options, and that they are not easy. I really hope it does not read like an ego trip. If it does I will be full of chagrin and will simply stop any further commentary. I still back my judgement as regards dumping Concept, even if it takes off. And I wish everyone luck. Why wouldn't I ? If you choose to keep on taking the signals, and then eventually pay your "data" fee, that is up to you. But I do not want to hear of anyone buying Concept and having to regret it like so many appear to do.

Finally, and once again, I think the Concept advertising is a classic of modern spin. Very very clever.
 
Eurjpy

Well I took the signal and stopped out, that was a big fall this PM. But I went back in and it rallied and I made a net 272 pips :-D

Anyone else?

Phil:clap:
 
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Crash?

Did anyone elses Concept crash this PM?

I have mailed them on this.

I just ran the update and got the following error:

See the end of this message for details on invoking
just-in-time (JIT) debugging instead of this dialog box.

************** Exception Text **************
System.IndexOutOfRangeException: Index was outside the bounds of the array.
at ConceptFX.Module1.GetLastPrice(String Symbol)
at ConceptFX.FrmAnalysis.FrmAnalysis_Load(Object sender, EventArgs e)
at System.Windows.Forms.Form.OnLoad(EventArgs e)
at System.Windows.Forms.Form.OnCreateControl()
at System.Windows.Forms.Control.CreateControl(Boolean fIgnoreVisible)
at System.Windows.Forms.Control.CreateControl()
at System.Windows.Forms.Control.WmShowWindow(Message& m)
at System.Windows.Forms.Control.WndProc(Message& m)
at System.Windows.Forms.ScrollableControl.WndProc(Message& m)
at System.Windows.Forms.ContainerControl.WndProc(Message& m)
at System.Windows.Forms.Form.WmShowWindow(Message& m)
at System.Windows.Forms.Form.WndProc(Message& m)
at System.Windows.Forms.ControlNativeWindow.OnMessage(Message& m)
at System.Windows.Forms.ControlNativeWindow.WndProc(Message& m)
at System.Windows.Forms.NativeWindow.Callback(IntPtr hWnd, Int32 msg, IntPtr wparam, IntPtr lparam)


************** Loaded Assemblies **************
mscorlib
Assembly Version: 1.0.5000.0
Win32 Version: 1.1.4322.2407
CodeBase: file:///c:/windows/microsoft.net/framework/v1.1.4322/mscorlib.dll
----------------------------------------
Concept-FX
Assembly Version: 1.0.3194.21786
Win32 Version: 1.0.3194.21786
CodeBase: file:///C:/Program%20Files/Concept%20FX/Concept-FX.exe
----------------------------------------
System.Windows.Forms
Assembly Version: 1.0.5000.0
Win32 Version: 1.1.4322.2032
CodeBase: file:///c:/windows/assembly/gac/system.windows.forms/1.0.5000.0__b77a5c561934e089/system.windows.forms.dll
----------------------------------------
System
Assembly Version: 1.0.5000.0
Win32 Version: 1.1.4322.2407
CodeBase: file:///c:/windows/assembly/gac/system/1.0.5000.0__b77a5c561934e089/system.dll
----------------------------------------
System.Drawing
Assembly Version: 1.0.5000.0
Win32 Version: 1.1.4322.2032
CodeBase: file:///c:/windows/assembly/gac/system.drawing/1.0.5000.0__b03f5f7f11d50a3a/system.drawing.dll
----------------------------------------
Microsoft.VisualBasic
Assembly Version: 7.0.5000.0
Win32 Version: 7.10.6001.4
CodeBase: file:///c:/windows/assembly/gac/microsoft.visualbasic/7.0.5000.0__b03f5f7f11d50a3a/microsoft.visualbasic.dll
----------------------------------------
System.Xml
Assembly Version: 1.0.5000.0
Win32 Version: 1.1.4322.2032
CodeBase: file:///c:/windows/assembly/gac/system.xml/1.0.5000.0__b77a5c561934e089/system.xml.dll
----------------------------------------
System.Data
Assembly Version: 1.0.5000.0
Win32 Version: 1.1.4322.2032
CodeBase: file:///c:/windows/assembly/gac/system.data/1.0.5000.0__b77a5c561934e089/system.data.dll
----------------------------------------

************** JIT Debugging **************
To enable just in time (JIT) debugging, the config file for this
application or machine (machine.config) must have the
jitDebugging value set in the system.windows.forms section.
The application must also be compiled with debugging
enabled.

For example:

<configuration>
<system.windows.forms jitDebugging="true" />
</configuration>

When JIT debugging is enabled, any unhandled exception
will be sent to the JIT debugger registered on the machine
rather than being handled by this dialog.
 
Trading with Robots

Continuing from my post last week:

2008
1 Dec Starting Capital £100
19 Dec Equity at £1,548 (draw down from £6450!!)
19 Dec Starting Capital withdrawn.
31 Dec Equity at £2,070

2009
2 Jan Equity at £2,305
9 Jan Equity at £2,546
16 Jan Equity at £2,947
23 Jan Equity at £2,921

Roboteer has struggled this week, given the market turbulence, and both it and FAPT ended the week showing a slight loss. The account is showing a 40% gain in the month to date, so I can’t complain.

I have lost some confidence in FAPT, which performed so steadily till Christmas, and have reduced the risk setting, which of course also reduces profit potential.

I’m always on the look out for other robots, and still mulling over the way forward with my own, which I have stopped trading.

How’s Concept? Has anyone new been suckered in by the advertising and the discount, like I was?
 
been a long time since ive been here, concepts took a bashing but at last its stringing an odd trade together now, so are we back on the merry go round,must admit im using 1.5% risk now..

hope everyone who bought it has kept the faith!
 
been a long time since ive been here, concepts took a bashing but at last its stringing an odd trade together now, so are we back on the merry go round,must admit im using 1.5% risk now..

hope everyone who bought it has kept the faith!

Im still in. The current trade is doing very nicely.

P
 
been a long time since ive been here, concepts took a bashing but at last its stringing an odd trade together now, so are we back on the merry go round,must admit im using 1.5% risk now..

hope everyone who bought it has kept the faith!




I started with them at the end of August and its been a pretty depressing time. However, the two recent big trades have brought me back within sight of breakeven. I'm holding on for now.
 
Nice winner this morning and another £4,500 in the pot.

Things are looking up.

Well done to those who stuck with it.

Steve.
 
Green shoots..........!

I note Concept’s profits in 2009 so far……….…green shoots! As for my chosen alternative, trading with robots, I have now completed a second month:

2008
1 Dec Starting Capital £100
19 Dec £100 withdrawn.
31 Dec Equity at £2,070

2009
30 Jan Equity at £3248

I have been made to sweat a bit this month, but a 56% increase on account is OK.

Roboteer - which only trades EURUSD - has produced regular wins, but two big losses during the week destroyed about £450 of the profits. I don’t understand Roboteer’s stop loss policy, so do not tinker for fear of risking the underlying profitability of the strategy. I did try hedging one trade, but shot myself in the foot; the result is not included in the above figures which only show how the robots have performed.

FAPT (short term mode) has been disappointing this week, not quite breaking even. I will now limit trading to the one currency pair - EURCHF - that has a reliable track record with FAPT so far, and will up the risk setting for next week. I may start using the long term mode as well, but hesitate as it trades the same pair and timeframe as Roboteer.

I still muse on the difference between trading and gambling. Consistent success in either requires a proven system and discipline, with a good measure of luck. Perhaps there is no difference, and trading just sounds more respectable!
 
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