Concept FX

[SandyW]

Wisdom

Hi Phil,

"Wise", who knows, but certainly not unwise, in my opinion. FX trading is straightforward, it's just buying and selling.

The system appears to have integrity. I would love to know the trade entry and exit algorithms, but that is a trade secret I guess. But the money management is clear and simple, which is a very big plus. The system itself is truly easy and quick to use.

As for background or experience, you certainly don't need to be a seasoned trader. A novice trader would not have a struggle with the system as such, but should at least have read a few books and appreciate that in trading there are ups and downs, and that money management is critical. The spreadbetting platforms themselves offer more technical challenge to a novice, than Concept does.

Of course anyone spreadbetting, or FX direct trading, has to fully understand and appreciate the issues surrounding trading on margin, or they are headed for disaster. It would help to have had some trading experience, especially to have learned some lessons the hard way. The bad experiences you've had (and you must have had some if you have traded!) will help you see the value of Concept, which helps money management, helps eliminate emotional trading, helps apply discipline.

But, as you have already read on here I imagine, you cannot expect to get a dreamy dead smooth equity growth curve. There have been, and there are going to be, a few gut wrenching downs as well as euphoric ups. That's trading generally, not just Concept.

Perhaps it would be wise to complete 20 or so trades using half your £8000 trading capital, then feed the rest in and raise your stakes after that.

Hope you join in, best of luck!

Hi, I have been following this thread with great interest and naturally the Concept FX idea is attractive, if you believe their sales pitch and based upon the results published by members here. However Concept claim:

"Suitable for everyone:
whatever your background or experience, Concept-FX will be ideal for you. The system is provided with complete support and works on an End of Day basis so takes only a few minutes in the evening"

Is this true? I know nothing about FX trading and have little time. I do have a the money to buy the software and put in a 8K bank though.

Would I be "wise" to buy the software and simply follow their instrucions?

Cheers, Phil

 

[bigphil22]

Hi Phil,
...
Perhaps it would be wise to complete 20 or so trades using half your £8000 trading capital, then feed the rest in and raise your stakes after that.

Hope you join in, best of luck!

Sandy, thanks for your long and well thought out reply. Much appreciated!

Your advice regarding the use of my capital seems like a good idea, although it's tempting to go in at the deep end to maximise profits , minimise losses, what's that you say?

Are the results posted on the Concept site in line with reality as you see it? According to the results list for 2008, they have increased their "paper" bank by £75k ytd starting with £25K! This is surely pretty phenomenal?

What kind of returns are you and the others seeing? Have you recovered the cost of the software?

Phil

 

[SandyW]

Hi Phil,

The first thing to understand is that you must must must take a long view. I have been using the system for exactly a month, and I have completed 6 trades (2 wins, 4 losses) with one currently open and in profit so far. I started with £4000 and when the 6th trade closed was only £71 in profit overall, but after my first trade was 5.6% down, and after the third trade was 11% up. So overall not demonstrably impressive. But as I said before there are ups and downs. As it has turned out, since I joined that is how it has been. There are others on here who joined 2 months before me who can probably say they increased on the bank by 50% within 10 trades or so. In the next run of trades we may all get thoroughly depressed by poor profits and too many losers! Or of course have a fantastic run, get overconfident, and increase our risks only to fall flat on our faces. The important thing is to somehow get some reassurance on the integrity of the system and then go for it, and stick with it.

As to the performance, since around the new year 2008 it has been spectacular, no doubt about it. But that appears to just be the way the market has worked out. I wouldn't use that period as a yardstick for guesstimating future performance. I would suggest, from analysing the published results, and excluding the spectacular period, that an average growth on bank for each trade would be between 1.5% and 2%. I include the wins and losses in that figure. But the past is definitely not the future, and all one can say is that over a period of 4+ years the system appears to have made a lot of money, and there is no reason to think it will suddenly go into reverse!

As I see it you need at least 50 trades, maybe even 100, to get the reassurance you probably want, because it is only over quite long sequences that the ups and downs even out. During such a sequence there is every likelihood of some pain at times! Maybe even a 50% (rare let's hope) draw down from peaks in the bank balance.

Those of us using the system keep a close eye on the results which are published and they do match our experience. If you select individual trades yourself and then check them against the history on charting websites, I believe you will find they match up. I checked a percentage myself that way.

As regards size of starting capital. It has to be the individual's call doesn't it. I think about gearing up my own account. Maybe just add £500 a month from other income. Maybe at the end of every month, look at my profit and add the same amount, or maybe if there has been a loss over the month, simply do a top up. Or as you suggest put the lot in at the start. The only disadvantage I can see in that, is that when you get losses they will be bigger, and would drain your emotions more! With a bank of £4,000, and risking 5% you will often be seeing losses of £200 or so. Not all that painful, but with a bank of £50,000 (say) the losses would often be £2500. How cool are you, how financially secure? If you know yourself, and you are dead cool, go for it! The reason I suggested half to start with is because I am finding my feet here too, and am getting accustomed to using the system. It is better to do that with as little stress as possible, and then up the stakes when you have "settled in". 20 trades probably equates to 3 months.

I hope I haven't laboured this, or bored fellow users!

Sandy

Sandy, thanks for your long and well thought out reply. Much appreciated!

Your advice regarding the use of my capital seems like a good idea, although it's tempting to go in at the deep end to maximise profits , minimise losses, what's that you say?

Are the results posted on the Concept site in line with reality as you see it? According to the results list for 2008, they have increased their "paper" bank by £75k ytd starting with £25K! This is surely pretty phenomenal?

What kind of returns are you and the others seeing? Have you recovered the cost of the software?

Phil

 

[bigphil22]

Hi Phil,

I hope I haven't laboured this, or bored fellow users!

Sandy

Not me in any case! Sound advice.

I'm resonably cool and reasonably secure with an investment property in london giving me a small monthly income on top of my salary. I'm chiefly interested in trading as a way to increase my number of incomes and thus reduce my dependence upon my (hard won) salary.

How much time do you spend using the system? Is it as Concept suggests really only 20mins per evening?

I'll give the idea some further thought.

Phil

 

[SandyW]

Hi Phil,

The small amount of time is one of the great advantages of Concept's EOD approach. Some days it's only a matter of 2 minutes just to open the program (takes maybe 20 seconds), update (another 20 seconds) have a look (and look again!). The screen basically just shows some numbers, and highlights any changes necessary, eg to setup a new trade, or move a stoploss, or set a target closing price, or cancel a setup which has not triggered. If no changes, shut down. If there are changes, you obviously need to apply them to your spreadbetting platform (maybe 5 or 10 mins doing it carefully), and make sure Concept and the platform are in step. The instructions are very clear. So it would be fair to say 20 mins at the most. If you want to labour it, or make a cup of tea in between, add your own margin. I cannot predict how often you will compulsively look at your trades and your account during the day (!) but it is absolutely not necessary, and actually it is just distracting, and tempts you to do "something silly", but we all do it to some degree, depending on how sad we are. There is no point looking at Concept because nothing changes except at the daily 8.30 pm update.

I don't know if you have any familiarity with spreadbetting, but obviously if you are a raw novice, you have some learning to do, both on the principles and the use of your chosen platform. This may slow you to begin with.

As regards, your capital, I think I would say don't rush it. You will have just spent £4k (painful enough), so start with the £4k trading account. Your call!

Sandy

Not me in any case! Sound advice.

I'm resonably cool and reasonably secure with an investment property in london giving me a small monthly income on top of my salary. I'm chiefly interested in trading as a way to increase my number of incomes and thus reduce my dependence upon my (hard won) salary.

How much time do you spend using the system? Is it as Concept suggests really only 20mins per evening?

I'll give the idea some further thought.

Phil

 

[anddy26]

Hi Phil
I am of the same opinion as you im afraid, just go for it!..its sound like the 12k is play money so lets burn it!...My only concern is which sandy has touched on is...if you have not used a spread betting platform before you may make a a costly mistake, i know i did!..open a demo account pick any stock or forex and place paper trades just to see how it works..once your comfortable then dive right in...BUT beware...if you decided to place your own trades you will get burnt and that 8k will disapear in seconds..i lost 4k in 1 hr last yr by saying..its bound to go back up!!..
the system is easy and in my opinion a glorified email service...the alerts come thru and you place your trade.20 mins max..then log in at night to see how much you have lost or gained....but my guess is you will want to see your money multiply and you will have a chart on your lap top and also log into your spread betting account to see the red or black numbers...if you wont do this then this is the software for you!!..i joined at a good run...there is a now a bad run..id join asap the worst they have had in 4 yrs was a 7trade loosing run...

Graham

 

[bigphil22]

Hi

Thanks for the input. I can't honestly say that the 12K is "play money" :cheesy: but that's the whole amount, incl the amount for the actual "software".

So 7/8K is my capital. I like your idea of using a demo account. Do you (and or you Sandy, if you're reading this) have a sb platform you'd reccomend, there are a lot to choose from.

I have just discovered that the grasping tax people here in Sweden (I'm an ex-pat Brit) don't see spread betting as "trading" any profits are tax free Which in the most highly taxed country on the planet, is remarkable! (OTOH the services here are pretty damn good so no complaints there...)

Phil

Hi Phil
I am of the same opinion as you im afraid, just go for it!..its sound like the 12k is play money so lets burn it!...My only concern is which sandy has touched on is...if you have not used a spread betting platform before you may make a a costly mistake, i know i did!..open a demo account pick any stock or forex and place paper trades just to see how it works..once your comfortable then dive right in...BUT beware...if you decided to place your own trades you will get burnt and that 8k will disapear in seconds..i lost 4k in 1 hr last yr by saying..its bound to go back up!!..
the system is easy and in my opinion a glorified email service...the alerts come thru and you place your trade.20 mins max..then log in at night to see how much you have lost or gained....but my guess is you will want to see your money multiply and you will have a chart on your lap top and also log into your spread betting account to see the red or black numbers...if you wont do this then this is the software for you!!..i joined at a good run...there is a now a bad run..id join asap the worst they have had in 4 yrs was a 7trade loosing run...

Graham

 

[SandyW]

Hi Phil,

I use both CMC and Finspreads. Hard to say which I really prefer, but I have used CMC for over 4 years and find myself using them the most, so on balance I recommend them. They have never ever caused me any problems. BTW, I have no idea whether there are any issues arising from your being an expat. I spend a lot of time out of UK/EU myself, but maintain a UK base.

As regards the tax situation, the view in UK is that since 95% of spreadbetters only lose money, it would avail the government nothing to tax us!! On the contrary, there would be many claiming tax back. Same in Sweden maybe.

Sandy

Hi

Thanks for the input. I can't honestly say that the 12K is "play money" :cheesy: but that's the whole amount, incl the amount for the actual "software".

So 7/8K is my capital. I like your idea of using a demo account. Do you (and or you Sandy, if you're reading this) have a sb platform you'd reccomend, there are a lot to choose from.

I have just discovered that the grasping tax people here in Sweden (I'm an ex-pat Brit) don't see spread betting as "trading" any profits are tax free Which in the most highly taxed country on the planet, is remarkable! (OTOH the services here are pretty damn good so no complaints there...)

Phil

 

[bigphil22]

...

As regards the tax situation, the view in UK is that since 95% of spreadbetters only lose money, it would avail the government nothing to tax us!! On the contrary, there would be many claiming tax back. Same in Sweden maybe.
Sandy

Pretty much, they see it as a lottery! So the profits, if any, aren't taxed

You comment on the UK view is reassuring

As for my being an expat, I have an offshore account with abbey international and I expect I'm liquid enough not to cause the SB co. any concerns. We shall see. Best to check that before I buy the software eh? :cheesy:

Phil

 

[SandyW]

Phil,

You will need to complete an online application for an SB account. They usually ask you for a simple statement of your worth, but you don't need to prove it. They may also ask you how long you have been trading. It's all just to cover them really, so that if you lose and try to blame them they can justify themselves to the FSA. If your experience and wealth are limited they will limit the initial size of your account. Usual finance industry thing, using the FSA rules to protect themselves, not us customers. Presumably, you can fund your SB account online or by debit card from your offshore account. No need to answer, just thinking aloud.

BTW, Concept-FX normally sell their software and instructions as a CD and Instruction folder, which you collect or have posted. But if you want, they will setup a download of the whole package for you; that''s what I did.

Pretty much, they see it as a lottery! So the profits, if any, aren't taxed

You comment on the UK view is reassuring

As for my being an expat, I have an offshore account with abbey international and I expect I'm liquid enough not to cause the SB co. any concerns. We shall see. Best to check that before I buy the software eh? :cheesy:

Phil

 

[explorer626]

Chance ?

Hi Phil
I am of the same opinion as you im afraid, just go for it!..its sound like the 12k is play money so lets burn it!...My only concern is which sandy has touched on is...if you have not used a spread betting platform before you may make a a costly mistake, i know i did!..open a demo account pick any stock or forex and place paper trades just to see how it works..once your comfortable then dive right in...BUT beware...if you decided to place your own trades you will get burnt and that 8k will disapear in seconds..i lost 4k in 1 hr last yr by saying..its bound to go back up!!..
the system is easy and in my opinion a glorified email service...the alerts come thru and you place your trade.20 mins max..then log in at night to see how much you have lost or gained....but my guess is you will want to see your money multiply and you will have a chart on your lap top and also log into your spread betting account to see the red or black numbers...if you wont do this then this is the software for you!!..i joined at a good run...there is a now a bad run..id join asap the worst they have had in 4 yrs was a 7trade loosing run...

Graham

a comment on just the last line here...................
Assuming the gains and losses on Concept occur at random, but with a small bias towards gains, then each trade is independent of the previous trades.
Therefore if you have had a sucesssion of losses , it doesnt make the outcome of the
next trade any MORE likely to be positive. That is the gamblers delusion.
Big subject - theory of chance - but that is how it goes for random things ..
It applies to many other systems , not just Concept, but it doesn't prevent people
thinking " I must be lucky now as i have had so much bad luck recently."

a good thread going here --- keep at it , guys !

 

[bigphil22]

a comment on just the last line here...................
Assuming the gains and losses on Concept occur at random, but with a small bias towards gains, then each trade is independent of the previous trades.
Therefore if you have had a sucesssion of losses , it doesnt make the outcome of the
next trade any MORE likely to be positive. That is the gamblers delusion.
Big subject - theory of chance - but that is how it goes for random things ..
It applies to many other systems , not just Concept, but it doesn't prevent people
thinking " I must be lucky now as i have had so much bad luck recently."

a good thread going here --- keep at it , guys !

But surely Concept is based upon more than pure chance? Otherwise what does one pay for? If using Concept doesn't remove a percentage of the chance, what is the point? Surely a room full of monkeys could produce the same results?

Phil

 

[anddy26]

explorer you are correct in what you say about a gamblers mentallity..i was merely suggesting that the worst they have had is 7 staright losses in 4 years..we have had 3in a row just now and another a week ago..so if you are going to join then this maybe as good a time is any....
im sure there are new users out there hoping that it will turn as they started at a bad time.

The system is a black box system phil....a computer crunching out numbers and 80 boxes have to be ticked before an alert is triggered..im more synical now...and i beleive there must be some human intervention..personally i dont care what they say im making money from it.

My personal take on it this system is that they use s/r pivots and fibs..im sure there is far more to it but thats my evaluation on looking at the trades that i have had from them over the last 2 months.

btw i think we are all gamblers here..just some have more dicsipline than others..lol

 

[explorer626]

yes . Expanding the SB it does say " Betting " in there, so we are gamblers, and those who are following Concept are hoping, and even expecting, to become successful gamblers. Why are people here at the weekend, perhaps they are monitoring the currencies on IG etc? Concept says you can take the day off until after 8:30pm .=) )

 

[SandyW]

A free trading system

OK, here's a free trading system. We have 6 currency pairs, we put one on each face of a die. Every day at 10am we roll the die and trade whichever pair comes up, and toss a coin to decide whether we go long or short. We size the trade the same way as Concept does, use the Concept stoploss distance and trail the stop at this distance, having set a target price at the level 2:1. So everything would be random except the 2:1 money management system. Just to keep a handle on margin, we would not allow more than 2 pairs to be open at any one time. If a pair came up for trading and there was already a trade open on it, we would roll the die again, until a different pair came up. Any one care to try it (but not with my money!)?

a comment on just the last line here...................
Assuming the gains and losses on Concept occur at random, but with a small bias towards gains, then each trade is independent of the previous trades...........

 

[masif1]

Brilliant Idea SandyW,

This is something that has crossed my mind many a times, as concept have a 50% success rate, the alerts what we receive could well be just random (except for the entry and objectives), but what IS making the system successful is the money management?

who wants to open and manage the paper account?

who knows if we're successful we can sell our system

OK, here's a free trading system. We have 6 currency pairs, we put one on each face of a die. Every day at 10am we roll the die and trade whichever pair comes up, and toss a coin to decide whether we go long or short. We size the trade the same way as Concept does, use the Concept stoploss distance and trail the stop at this distance, having set a target price at the level 2:1. So everything would be random except the 2:1 money management system. Just to keep a handle on margin, we would not allow more than 2 pairs to be open at any one time. If a pair came up for trading and there was already a trade open on it, we would roll the die again, until a different pair came up. Any one care to try it (but not with my money!)?

 

[bigphil22]

explorer you are correct in what you say about a gamblers mentallity..i was merely suggesting that the worst they have had is 7 staright losses in 4 years..we have had 3in a row just now and another a week ago..so if you are going to join then this maybe as good a time is any....

Are these results reflected in Concept's published results, IE here: Concept-FX: Results

I appreciate the blackbox nature of their product, that doesn't bother me in the slightest. I'd like to recover the cost of the software and to see my capital grow the first 12 months. Preferably by more than leaving it in a saving account. Ups and downs are no problem as long as the long term trend is up.

I'm talking to my money man tomorrow, then the wife and assuming she's not on the phone to a divorce lawyer straight away :cheesy: I'll join as soon as I have the capital available.

Phil

 

[explorer626]

OK, here's a free trading system. We have 6 currency pairs, we put one on each face of a die. Every day at 10am we roll the die and trade whichever pair comes up, and toss a coin to decide whether we go long or short. We size the trade the same way as Concept does, use the Concept stoploss distance and trail the stop at this distance, having set a target price at the level 2:1. So everything would be random except the 2:1 money management system. Just to keep a handle on margin, we would not allow more than 2 pairs to be open at any one time. If a pair came up for trading and there was already a trade open on it, we would roll the die again, until a different pair came up. Any one care to try it (but not with my money!)?

Sandy . I like your free trading system, and I could run it on a demo account . It would take about 14 minutes a day. However what would be the opinion on the results .?
If profitable , would it be called lucky, or if losing would it be called unlucky.?
To hurry it along one could run it with several different currency pairs every day.:?:

Concept has periods when a few losses occur. Has anyone looked to see if they correlate with any periods of financial turbulance or whatever.?

 

[SandyW]

Hi explorer!

Good of you to take up the idea. Yes I agree, if using a demo account you could probably run more than 2 pairs. But I would suggest 3 max to make it realistic.

As regards luck. In the short term it will be luck. In the longer term, say over 100 trades, it might start to show a bias one way or the other! I don't actually believe it will beat Concept! Well I hope it doesn't, because if it does I have spent some money I could have used for trading!

Sandy

Sandy . I like your free trading system, and I could run it on a demo account . It would take about 14 minutes a day. However what would be the opinion on the results .?
If profitable , would it be called lucky, or if losing would it be called unlucky.?
To hurry it along one could run it with several different currency pairs every day.:?:

Concept has periods when a few losses occur. Has anyone looked to see if they correlate with any periods of financial turbulance or whatever.?

 

[anddy26]

yes . Expanding the SB it does say " Betting " in there, so we are gamblers, and those who are following Concept are hoping, and even expecting, to become successful gamblers. Why are people here at the weekend, perhaps they are monitoring the currencies on IG etc? Concept says you can take the day off until after 8:30pm .=) )

If we take gambling to the extreme then wall street the london stock exchange etc it would appear we are all rin by gamblers... we are gambling that our stocks and shares will make us money...Im a gambler but with calcualted risks..some are higher than others but i take them...

im here for the social side of this..lol..but have kept an eye on my IG account,,,im still in the black..lol

Phil

Yes they are def correct..i was going to oust them if they werent...the only thing that does differ is they dont take into account the cost of rolling trades and the initial spread when you place your trade...so 75k profit would possibly mean 71k..im sure some one like sandy who is a genuis with excel has possibly worked out their true profit?

if not sandy would you attempt one??