Concept FX

[jason0181]

A busy time ahead sounds good, as I could do with the distraction.

I can only assume that the drop in oil today has resulted in a much stronger $, and the trades not going our way. As long as we dont get stopped out today, I think it will come back again, as there is strong support 19800.

 

[anddy26]

well my usdchf got stopped then carried on north..didnt see that..i usually put my stop 2-3 pips above the recent high on a 4hr chart..and i would have to put money on this one!!.lol..ahh well...im going to medle with my eur one..if you look at the 4hr chart..there is a price action sytem trade there..so in effect i think im pyramidding my trade so it should come out of a negative price sooner than later...

 

[wilmer55]

Hi Jason

It wasn't just the oil. There was also an increase in US Consumer Confidence. Up on forecast and up on June. Any ray of hope at the moment.

But you are probably right as long as the support is not broken. I am hoping that the ammended stop loss doesn't cause a problem as it did on last trade that stopped out.

A busy time ahead sounds good, as I could do with the distraction.

I can only assume that the drop in oil today has resulted in a much stronger $, and the trades not going our way. As long as we dont get stopped out today, I think it will come back again, as there is strong support 19800.

 

[anddy26]

huh what do i know..lol

 

[Torran]

Concept Courage

Clearly sticking with Concept for those of us new to it in the last week or so is going to require a stiff upper lip! That is now two out of three of last weeks trades bombed out and the last not looking too good. Oh dear.

The only trade I have doing any good at present is on EURJPY which is doing very nicely thank you and looks set for a good profit - no thanks to Concept! At least if it does come good it will make up some of my Concept losses.

Torran

 

[jason0181]

Not the best day in concepts history, but if we look at their result for the year, there have always been a run of good and bad. They only expect to get 45% winning trades, and that is where I am at the moment. Still in profit, but not as good as it should be.

I am sticking with it, and I still have faith in the system.

The current alert should come good tomorrow, as it is over bought at the moment looking at RSI, so should drop. Not sure how much it will pull back before going back up, and by how much. If it is on a break out, then it may go for a while, but I have my doubts. Does anyone want to comment on the thoughts for this pair??

 

[SandyW]

Now I'm confused!

People! Help!

Today Concept produced a setup alert for a certain currency pair. Very exciting eh? Well yes, because when I look at the Chart for this pair in the Concept-FX window it is upside down as compared to the charts shown by both my SB platforms! Concept calls the pair USDCHF, just as my SB companies do. But I think concept has in reality got the CHFUSD, if you get my drift. SB platforms show price as around 1.0451, while Concept shows price as 0.9563. So is this alert one we can just follow blindly (as you do with Concept don't you?) or do we need to do mental contortions first, using the inverse of the numbers?

Has anyone else got this problem? Am I missing something? Obviously I have emailed the Concept people as a matter of urgency, and await a reply.

 

[wilmer55]

Have done exactly the same thing and am awaiting reply.

People! Help!

Today Concept produced a setup alert for a certain currency pair. Very exciting eh? Well yes, because when I look at the Chart for this pair in the Concept-FX window it is upside down as compared to the charts shown by both my SB platforms! Concept calls the pair USDCHF, just as my SB companies do. But I think concept has in reality got the CHFUSD, if you get my drift. SB platforms show price as around 1.0451, while Concept shows price as 0.9563. So is this alert one we can just follow blindly (as you do with Concept don't you?) or do we need to do mental contortions first, using the inverse of the numbers?

Has anyone else got this problem? Am I missing something? Obviously I have emailed the Concept people as a matter of urgency, and await a reply.

 

[SandyW]

Hi Wilmer,

I have actually entered the alert setup numbers in my account on the assumption they are correct. It looks to me as if it is the current price and the graph which are wrong. We'll see. But the anomaly doesn't engender confidence in the integrity of a system that has supposedly been running for over 4 years.

Have done exactly the same thing and am awaiting reply.

 

[Torran]

Concept (ual) problems!

People! Help!

Today Concept produced a setup alert for a certain currency pair. Very exciting eh? Well yes, because when I look at the Chart for this pair in the Concept-FX window it is upside down as compared to the charts shown by both my SB platforms! Concept calls the pair USDCHF, just as my SB companies do. But I think concept has in reality got the CHFUSD, if you get my drift. SB platforms show price as around 1.0451, while Concept shows price as 0.9563. So is this alert one we can just follow blindly (as you do with Concept don't you?) or do we need to do mental contortions first, using the inverse of the numbers?

Has anyone else got this problem? Am I missing something? Obviously I have emailed the Concept people as a matter of urgency, and await a reply.

As a newbie to Concept am somewhat reassured that you and Wilmer both had problems understanding last nights alert. Although it does not help to give me confidence in their system. At present I am sitting on the sidelines and haven't actioned their alert although I know one is supposed to follow the system faithfully. Will be most interested to hear what their response is to your e-mails.

Torran

 

[avtarsaini]

Sandy
How long have you used concept for, and overall are you in the black or red? Hope you dont mind me asking such a direct question, I'm still humming and ha'aing about whether to purchase. Any thoughts would be appreciated. Thanks.
Avtar

 

[explorer626]

As a programmer It is diffficult to see how a program such as concept which has been running for many years would suddenly reverse one of its basic charts. Possibly they changed the feed supplier , or did an update that hadn't been fully tested. As you say, await their explanations.

 

[wilmer55]

Apparently, it happened last week while they had server difficulty and the price is being fed in as CHFUSD as opposed to USDCHF.

As a programmer It is diffficult to see how a program such as concept which has been running for many years would suddenly reverse one of its basic charts. Possibly they changed the feed supplier , or did an update that hadn't been fully tested. As you say, await their explanations.

 

[SandyW]

Recent Glitches

OK, the explanation is that, following the recent failure of the update server last week, they had to rebuild something (my paraphrase). The actual trade setup numbers are just fine, but they inadvertently reversed the currency pair on the current price quote (CHFUSD shown, not USDCHF) which comes from a different feed to the one used by the software that sets up the trades. Actually the current price is only for info, it has no part in the trading moves. I guess some users may not have even noticed(!?) I remain confident.

As a programmer It is diffficult to see how a program such as concept which has been running for many years would suddenly reverse one of its basic charts. Possibly they changed the feed supplier , or did an update that hadn't been fully tested. As you say, await their explanations.

 

[SandyW]

Hi Avtar,

Only been a user for less than a month. I happen to be just in profit, after 5 trades completed and one still open. However that last sentence means nothing really, because you just have to take the long view. You cannot expect a smooth equity curve. If you are lucky you will start off in a winning streak and double your money in a couple of months, or even on a couple of trades. This could lead you into a state of ridiculous over confidence, unwisely increasing your trade size. On the other hand you could unwittingly join at the start of a bad series of trades and be down 40% or 50% in a month or two. That would make you very despondent, unless you are Dr Spock.

You have to make your purchase based on the historical record, which shows all the bumps are only smoothed out over say 50 or 100 trades. Recent performance (ie in the last 6 to 8) months has been truly spectacular, averaging in the region of 5% profit on each trade. Looks like it's just the way the market has been. But the long term expectation you could reasonably have is between 1.5% and 2% average profit on each trade (Profit expressed as a %age of trading capital in use). You could have periods when the average profit is actually negative.

Anyone buying in who is not mentally geared for the ups and downs will start getting emotional, suffering all the usual greed/fear symptoms. The whole idea is of course to just follow the system, stay cool, and get on with your life during the day. I find it an excellent tool for practicing trading discipline and I am quite an enthusiast. I hope the Concept people do not disappoint in the long term.

Maybe some other users would like to put forward a view, or even contest my %age profitability figures?

Sandy
How long have you used concept for, and overall are you in the black or red? Hope you dont mind me asking such a direct question, I'm still humming and ha'aing about whether to purchase. Any thoughts would be appreciated. Thanks.
Avtar

 

[masif1]

News

A thought :idea: (doesn't happen too often so please pay attention)

as Concept is an automated system and therefore does not take into consideration News, is there anyway a user could use both the Concepts alerts as well as the News and apply the stop loss/target price accordingly?

I know this falls out of the whole idea of using Concept, but you could have a seperate trading account or even a paper account and try this out.

The other alternative is just take a set amount of profit from the alerts rather than waiting for the target price or stop loss to be hit.

for example on Mon 28th and even the 29th the GBPUSD pair hit a high of around 1.9960, you could have just taken the profit of 117 pips?

if you look at the average daily movement for a currency pair and then take that average as profit. eg. GBPUSD - 100pips, EURUSD - 50pips.

Hi Jason

It wasn't just the oil. There was also an increase in US Consumer Confidence. Up on forecast and up on June. Any ray of hope at the moment.

But you are probably right as long as the support is not broken. I am hoping that the ammended stop loss doesn't cause a problem as it did on last trade that stopped out.

 

[SandyW]

Hi Asif,

There must be any number of ways you can play around with the system! But what is so good about news anyway, by the time you get it the market has already reacted. I never ever read the news except out of idle curiosity after the event. There are of course some events which can be traded, eg Non-Farm Payroll, but you don't need Concept for that. Why don't you devise a method based on your idea, and let us know how you get on?

In my opinion, anyone buying into Concept should just stick with the system. You don't buy a dog and then bark yourself. Or maybe, if it ain't bust don't fix it. If you are already a successful independent trader, why would you need Concept, except to spend more time really living?

As to your idea of using tighter stops and taking profits early, I think you would be on a loser. Too tight a stop loss will see you out of trades before they have had a chance to come good. Taking profits too early will kill your profitability. The success of the system depends on letting the good trades run, not on cutting them short. Some of the good trades have netted spectacular profits. I am sure the people who devised Concept have done a lot of work to optimise the trading algorithm. I would not dream of trying to beat it.

A thought :idea: (doesn't happen too often so please pay attention)

as Concept is an automated system and therefore does not take into consideration News, is there anyway a user could use both the Concepts alerts as well as the News and apply the stop loss/target price accordingly?

I know this falls out of the whole idea of using Concept, but you could have a seperate trading account or even a paper account and try this out.

The other alternative is just take a set amount of profit from the alerts rather than waiting for the target price or stop loss to be hit.

for example on Mon 28th and even the 29th the GBPUSD pair hit a high of around 1.9960, you could have just taken the profit of 117 pips?

if you look at the average daily movement for a currency pair and then take that average as profit. eg. GBPUSD - 100pips, EURUSD - 50pips.

 

[masif1]

Hi Sandy,

point taken.

But what i meant about the stop loss is to not tighten it, like you said with the amount a currency pair move in a day this would stop you out. What i meant was leave the stop loss as per the original alert, as if users had left the original stop loss for the GBPUSD they would not have been stopped out?

I think your right - if it ain't broke why fix it?

one question however, people keep mentioning that the Concept system has been running successfully for 4 years. However from my understanding is that its only this year (6-7 months) where they have been marketing the system and therefore I assume the previous years results they show is through back testing the system?

If so, how does back testing work and is this testing accurate?

I think the best test is going to be us and I hope and pray its going to be very positive by the end of the year, especially as the system tends to do better in the latter part of the year than the first 6 months despite the 4 losses in a row they had in Aug 07.

Hi Asif,

There must be any number of ways you can play around with the system! But what is so good about news anyway, by the time you get it the market has already reacted. I never ever read the news except out of idle curiosity after the event. There are of course some events which can be traded, eg Non-Farm Payroll, but you don't need Concept for that. Why don't you devise a method based on your idea, and let us know how you get on?

In my opinion, anyone buying into Concept should just stick with the system. You don't buy a dog and then bark yourself. Or maybe, if it ain't bust don't fix it. If you are already a successful independent trader, why would you need Concept, except to spend more time really living?

As to your idea of using tighter stops and taking profits early, I think you would be on a loser. Too tight a stop loss will see you out of trades before they have had a chance to come good. Taking profits too early will kill your profitability. The success of the system depends on letting the good trades run, not on cutting them short. Some of the good trades have netted spectacular profits. I am sure the people who devised Concept have done a lot of work to optimise the trading algorithm. I would not dream of trying to beat it.

 

[wilmer55]

Hi

I take yourpoint on not moving the stop loss. With the Concept system we go in knowing that we could lose 5% of our capital per trade. Why not leave it there. If we had not moved our stops on the last 2 trades they would both still be running. However, as Sandy says to truly evaluate the system you need to play by the rules. My gut reaction is to leave the stop loss until such time as it is adjusted to an almost break even position, but this will then throuw out my results and my potential return. I might benefit on some and I might be worse of on others. So personally, despite my first 2 trades stopping out on me I shall follow the triggers and changes to the letter and hopefully will see the same return that Concept have.

Hi Sandy,

point taken.

But what i meant about the stop loss is to not tighten it, like you said with the amount a currency pair move in a day this would stop you out. What i meant was leave the stop loss as per the original alert, as if users had left the original stop loss for the GBPUSD they would not have been stopped out?

I think your right - if it ain't broke why fix it?

one question however, people keep mentioning that the Concept system has been running successfully for 4 years. However from my understanding is that its only this year (6-7 months) where they have been marketing the system and therefore I assume the previous years results they show is through back testing the system?

If so, how does back testing work and is this testing accurate?

I think the best test is going to be us and I hope and pray its going to be very positive by the end of the year, especially as the system tends to do better in the latter part of the year than the first 6 months despite the 4 losses in a row they had in Aug 07.

 

[anddy26]

another one bites the dust.....some nervouse people in here now i bet.....i got in at the start of a good run.....some of you have joined at a start of a bad run...stick with it.....remember its money you can afford to loose just now!!..gulp....havnt told the wife thats her new car will have to wait..lol