Best Thread COFFEE - The next big bull?

[bgold]

Price action was a disappointing day in Coffee. I was expecting a move up but the opposite happened. This sharp move down in price penetrated the upward sloping trendline drawn against the lows within the advance from 106.50 (Chart 1). So unless we see a dramatic reversal tomorrow, now I fear that odds favor the selloff in Coffee from 115.30 possibly continuing to below 106.50, putting the bullish case on hold.

In terms of the bigger picture I remain longer-term bullish on Coffee. The selloff from 128.50 may be a second wave. Although a move much below the 105.00 handle would increase the probabilities that the labeling in Chart 3 is the operative wave pattern - a Contracting Triangle.

I am still flat and still wonder how to play coffee without putting too much capital at risk. Options perhaps?

 

[minx]

I am still flat and still wonder how to play coffee without putting too much capital at risk. Options perhaps?

Reversed from long to short on yesterdays open, my long seems to have been a bump in the road from the previous short. I think I'm trading on a much shorter tf to you guys and so am trying to catch the little waves over and back within the much larger moves.

Try SBing coffee if you want bet smaller size or to test ideas, thats what I'm currently doing so I an test ideas, and if its profitable doing it this way then the futures will be better.

 

[bgold]

Reversed from long to short on yesterdays open, my long seems to have been a bump in the road from the previous short. I think I'm trading on a much shorter tf to you guys and so am trying to catch the little waves over and back within the much larger moves.

Try SBing coffee if you want bet smaller size or to test ideas, thats what I'm currently doing so I an test ideas, and if its profitable doing it this way then the futures will be better.

I have been thinking about SBetting coffee for a while but haven't found an electronic platform yet with reasonably tight spreads. Cantor Index is rather expensive quoting Bid-asks as wide and .5/.60 which equates to $225 per futures equivalent. Platform is also not electronic and I just don't have time or inclination to do trading by phone. Most of my trading concentrates on day/swing trading US stock and Futures.

Any suggestions for a Spreadbetter?

 

[minx]

I have been thinking about SBetting coffee for a while but haven't found an electronic platform yet with reasonably tight spreads. Cantor Index is rather expensive quoting Bid-asks as wide and .5/.60 which equates to $225 per futures equivalent. Platform is also not electronic and I just don't have time or inclination to do trading by phone. Most of my trading concentrates on day/swing trading US stock and Futures.

Any suggestions for a Spreadbetter?

CS do London coffee for 5 tick spread, Finspreads so NY coffee and so too does Tradindex, although I think they charge 0.5/0.8 so perhaps you wont be too interested with that. Do you trade and London commods at all? Actually does anybody else apart from me?
If you are doing just futures then London coffee is only $5 a tick and although it isnt exactly the same product (Robusta Vs Arabica) you could work a spread ratio between Lon and NY and do your smaller size that way.

 

[SirFrancis]

CS Coffee Tastes Great!

I've spent a little time trading coffee on CS, made a little and lost a little, an interesting diversion but I'd need a lot more education before making any serious attempt to earn some cash.

 

[bgold]

CS do London coffee for 5 tick spread, Finspreads so NY coffee and so too does Tradindex, although I think they charge 0.5/0.8 so perhaps you wont be too interested with that. Do you trade and London commods at all? Actually does anybody else apart from me?
If you are doing just futures then London coffee is only $5 a tick and although it isnt exactly the same product (Robusta Vs Arabica) you could work a spread ratio between Lon and NY and do your smaller size that way.

Thanks for feedback. At risk of sounding ignorant but who do you refer to with "CS"? I currently trade only US commodities but find KC contract difficult to position trade considering contract size and volatility. I like to be able to tak partial profits on all my trades (eg min 2 contracts) In KC with 5+ct perday, that puts too much of my capital at risk.
I would like to investigate London Coffee. Where can one find cheap or free real time charts?

I leave the trading of London & NY spreads for the experts (unless someone can convince me otherwise). My moto is KISS!! It's tough enough as it is.

 

[SirFrancis]

Thanks for feedback. At risk of sounding ignorant but who do you refer to with "CS"? I currently trade only US commodities but find KC contract difficult to position trade considering contract size and volatility. I like to be able to tak partial profits on all my trades (eg min 2 contracts) In KC with 5+ct perday, that puts too much of my capital at risk.
I would like to investigate London Coffee. Where can one find cheap or free real time charts?

I leave the trading of London & NY spreads for the experts (unless someone can convince me otherwise). My moto is KISS!! It's tough enough as it is.

By "CS" I refer to Capital Spreads. They have a spread betting trade avalible in Robusta Coffee.

 

[minx]

I would like to investigate London Coffee. Where can one find cheap or free real time charts?

I leave the trading of London & NY spreads for the experts (unless someone can convince me otherwise). My moto is KISS!! It's tough enough as it is.

Get a one month trial on eSig or CQG or try futuresource.com and then search exchanges to find the contract code.
When I said spread the NY/Lon contracts I really should've said work out the correlation and then trade 2 London Coffee contracts instead of 1 NY Coffee, that way you have $10 per tick exposure instead of $18.75 and you have 2 lots to play with.

Here is a chart for the May 06 Contract:
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=LKDK06

 

[TWI]

Out with coffee trader other night and he said that on the ground in Bzl all buyers are hand to mouth and producers are not willing to sell so there is a standoff right now. Only reason futures are getting sold off is due spec funds.( Bzl is not deliverable in NY anyway so there is a premium mkt. ). The flag to this appears to be that demand is mainly from Europe and coffee in US warehouses is currently offered at discounts. Final word is. This thing, if it is going to go will do so between now and June. If by then nothing has happened then forget it. So 3 month window for upside. Be careful out there, this is a vicious beast.

 

[DaveT]

Main Points on the chart:

1) Short-term DOWNTREND intact + Falling Wedge.

2) Possible UPTREND line connecting Sept, Dec and March lows ( The Sept and Dec lows co-incided with LTD.)

3) Large Expanding Channel (or broadening formation) can be drawn, from the Sept lows.

4) Persistant apparent 'bullish' divergence between PRICE and the MACD Histogram.

BULL SIDE
---------

A break UP through the downtrend line (which has been in place since Late-Jan) CLOSING ABOVE FOR 2 DAYS would also break us out of the FALLING WEDGE.

1st Target = 11500 res (Falling wedge objective)
2nd Target = 12000 (Downtrend breakout Objective)

BEAR SIDE
---------

A break DOWN below the brown downtrend line (and lower suport of the falling wedge) would set us up for a test of the Dec lows( 9600-9700), then the Sept lows (9200-9300)

1st Target = 9600 Support
2nd target = 9300 Support.

 

[marketwavez]

Coffee ...............

So many Elliott Waves counts ......................
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No clear direction . How can a trader be on both sides of the fence ?
- One must choose which side you are on ,,.
You are eirther Bullish or you are Bearish , That's it !. Other wise you do what's called a hedge .


Marketwavez is not an expert of Elliott Waves .Niether is anyone else .

The only exert of Elliott Waves was Mr . Nelson Elliott who created it .

We are all just interpreters of his work .

So , here's the bottom line ,
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- It doesn't matter what your Wolf wave count is .
- It doesn’t matter what your Elliott wave count is .
- It doesn't matter what your Gartley count is .

All wave counts are Subjective.............

What matters is Price Action .
( and the ability to analyze time )

Tracing out Elliot Waves - Wolf Waves- and Gartleys is not a competition to see who has the right wave count . These wave structures mean nothing without applying sound Risk to Reward principles , which in the long run is the key to success in the market .

-Please do not confuse Risk to Reward with Money management....
though similar, Money management is a subject on to its own .
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[marketwavez]

pg-2 ..................

Coffee ......Buy zone 105.00 – 110.00......Stop 100.00

Do we have divergence ?

Risk 10.00 points

Potential -Reward 40.00 points

1st objective 140.00 .................................. 2nd objective 150.00
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The charts by Marketwaves are simply Elliott wave-counts that are believed to be what the given market is tracing out . Wave-counts are highly subjective , and definitely not 100 % reliable... Wave-counts also vary from one person to another who may be analyzing the given market and also can vary based on the time frames that are being analized .....

Coffee options

Buy July 2006 120 calls ...................@ 2.77 x 375 = $1038.50 each

Buy July 2006 130 calls ...................@ 1.31 x 375 = $491.25 each

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TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK… The purpose of these charts is to point out significant highs and lows based on Fibonacci Retracement lines and Elliott Waves which are highly subjective . This information is for educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations . All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility …

 

[marketwavez]

Trade Tracking

////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
3/26/2006 Buy July 2006 Coffee - 120 calls..@ 2.77 X -(3.75 ) = $1038.50.........

3/30/2006..................................................VALUE @ 4.00 X (3.75 ) = $1500.00...........

4/02/2006..................................................VALUE @ 4.53 ...................= $1698.00...........




/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
3/26/2006 Buy July 2006 Coffee - 130 calls..@ 1.31 X -(3.75 ) = $491.25.........

3/30/2006..................................................VALUE @ 2.07 X (3.75 ) = $776.00...........

4/02/2006..................................................VALUE @ 2.52 ...................= $945.00.............

 

[marketwavez]

Coffee

Today was a good day for cofee ................. Divergence proving itself ?

July Coffee up $4.25 ........... Wow ! ( 1 chart attached )

 

[minx]

Today was a good day for cofee ................. Divergence proving itself ?

July Coffee up $4.25 ........... Wow ! ( 1 chart attached )

Graph at the back of the Economist showing high Coffee prices. 2005-06 production fell below demand for the second season in a row. Stocks in Brazil are 1/2 what they were a year ago BUT Brazilian output is set to rise sharply in 06-07.
Have been short London Coffee since the 6th and can see no reason to take it off yet. If it rallies a little from these values I'll consider taking it off and reversing to a long if it continues a bit higher than that.

 

[me81]

I "like" this press release, nevermind my too high intake of coffee, i think it is rather self serving and considering the enhanced heart & other disease risks perhaps touching the irresponsible:

INTERNATIONAL COFFEE ORGANIZATION
22 BERNERS STREET
LONDON W1T 3DD
PRESS RELEASE

28th July 2004

GOING FOR GOLD

Exercise plays a part in all our lives whether we are playing the occasional game of football with the children, using exercise to help fight the battle of the bulge, or, if we are elite athletes, hoping to win a gold medal at Athens this summer. So when we find that caffeine, at levels found in one cup of coffee, can both reduce the sensation of fatigue as well as enhance exercise performance, this has significant implications for us all.

There is substantial research that concludes that caffeine does improve physical performance. Its effect also appears to be widespread across a diverse variety of sports and exercises. Studies have also been wide ranging and have included well-trained athletes and relatively sedentary individuals of both sexes and different age groups.

In many of these studies, where performance was improved by the ingestion of caffeine or drinking coffee, there was the also the additional benefit of an associated reduction in the sensation of fatigue.

In a presentation at the International Coffee Organization today, Professor Ron Maughan, Head of the School of Sports and Exercise Science at Loughborough University and adviser on Sports Nutrition to the International Olympic Committee, said “ Given the various initiatives aimed at promoting physical activity to improve health, anything that encourages participation by reducing the discomfort and fatigue most people feel when exercising, has enormous potential implications for improving public health”

Caffeine, in the form of coffee, has that ability.

ENDS

For further information contact:
Sylvia Robert-Sargeant. Coordinator, Positively Coffee Programme
T: 020 7580 8591
E: [email protected]

With coffee though the implications can seriously affect the body it is however a very strong trade eg looking at the coffee crisis in the us in 1972 when all supply was cut off due to insufficoent funds availiable coming out of the us's purse due to ill lack in the countries economy at that time therefore we now have a greater hold over the trades as a better economy is in place. My trades have gone up at a staggering 127 from 572 low points.........

 

[smbtnt]

Looking to get back into coffee longs, technicals look favourable, any fundamentals i should be aware of?

 

[TWI]

The fundamentals are supportive but funds have sold this down. It is one horrible place to be bullish recently.

 

[The Baptist]

The fundamentals are supportive but funds have sold this down. It is one horrible place to be bullish recently.

This has been setting up in my BO watch list for a bit now.

It looks like a likely upside BO candidate to me technically.

Fill your boots at the 1130 - 115 levels if it gets down there, In my view.

 

[The Baptist]

This has been setting up in my BO watch list for a bit now.

It looks like a likely upside BO candidate to me technically.

Fill your boots at the 1130 - 115 levels if it gets down there, In my view.

Chart