Given the current fundamental factors for this market, I don't know if I fully trust the seasonal tendancies, this year. Maybe parts of it will be valid while other parts aren't. For whatever it's worth, take a look:
http://www.futuresbuzz.com/seasonal_charts.html
This chart shows a seasonal decline for another week or so, then a rally, then a correction/stall lasting until the middle of May. With the fundamentals this year, maybe the stall won't hapen...maybe a rally all the way through until past the middle of May. Could this be the mega rally we've been waiting for? If it is, will the market collapse rapidly (as it has done after previous mega rallies) ? That's hard to imagine, given the fundamentals, but it's possible the market could rally way above it's true value because of speculator interest. And then: a great selling opportunity!
On the COT chart
http://www.freecotcharts.com/charts/KC.htm , look at the exremes of the commercials and funds. Looks like a sizable correction is in order. That would coincide quite well with the seasonal chart.
The daily chart shows a pretty convincing breakout from a bear flag. How low can it go? If you believe in symetry on a chart, quite low. How low? I dunno. I'll just wait for some kind of buy signal. In the meantime, shorting is tempting, but I'm not comfortable shorting a bull market. I'll just trade other stuff while I wait for coffee to head back up.
(On my screen, some bars are missing until I click the 'enlarge' button.)
EDIT: Oh, yeah: There's an outside bar down on the weekly chart.
