Best Thread COFFEE - The next big bull?

[..]

Take a look at the price action since last time we touched the trendline in early December - I bought the dip at 94.5 - could be opportunity tommorow ?

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CF/55

 

[gene]

That's the way I see it. Maybe tomorrow, maybe the next day.... But soon, for "sure".

 

[The Kman]

DaveT,

Did we see the dip your were talking about out of the seasonal charts? Still bullish for April/may?

The Kman

Patience guys.

We have just hit a trendline , and look to be completing this consolidation phase soon. New highs should follow within the next week or two.

The seasonal charts pointed to a dip mid-late March, and now point to further strength during April (and May).

Fundamentally, :

1) The severe drought in Vietnam continues,
2) Roaster buying is becoming more evident as we rise.
3) Brazil frost-risk season starts in May.
4) Cash prices have remained strong.


I remain substantially LONG July NY Coffee, (having accumulated on dips) , targeting :

1) 15000 Monthly Resistance
2) 17400 Monthly Resistance
3) 18200-18375 Resistance.

Here are July daily and monthly continuous log charts:

 

[DaveT]

Hello the Kman -

Yes, this recent sharp decline IS the March seasonal low I mentioned.

I am bullish for April/May, and project new highs sometime in April, with the next MAJOR seasonal peak due mate-May or Early June.

Fundamentals have not changed. Brazil frost premium will be biuilt into prices in the weeks ahead.

IMO.

 

[The Kman]

DaveT,

But historicly june july are low due to the fact that the industry is covered over the frost season, funds and specs stay put, so there is no buying power, and producing countries still want to sell.

If we reach 150 in april may a big drop of 20cnts brings us higher as were we are today.

Kman

Hello the Kman -

Yes, this recent sharp decline IS the March seasonal low I mentioned.

I am bullish for April/May, and project new highs sometime in April, with the next MAJOR seasonal peak due mate-May or Early June.

Fundamentals have not changed. Brazil frost premium will be biuilt into prices in the weeks ahead.

IMO.

 

[gene]

Coffee held support, today (Monday). I hope it resumes it's advance, tomorrow. I bought.

 

[che]

Hi,

I've being trying to find charts for commodities such as coffee and cannot find them on the free tools I'm using - FT.com. Yahoo.

Can you advise where I can get access to these charts?

Thanks

...................................

 

[DaveT]

HI che - welcome to T2W.


You can access FREE commodity charts (including coffee) at :

www.futuresource.com
www.futures.tradingcharts.com

 

[..]

Gene

Good to see the coffee express backed up to let on some more passengers!

Departure imminent!

 

[gene]

I bought on Monday at 124.90. On Thursday, I sold at 128.80. The coffee just didn't smell right. I looked at the seasonal chart, I looked at the COT chart. They both said I shouldn't be in there. On Thursday, the market wasn't acting very enthusiastic, so I exited. I'll keep watching. I hope Monday isn't "the day". ---I'm ijn the process of transferring funds to another broker.

 

[jklondon]

gene - wheres the best place to get sesonal charts? txs

 

[gene]

The BEST place? I dunno. Here's A place.
http://www.futuresbuzz.com/seasonal_charts.html

 

[The Kman]

Minus 5,10$cnts last Friday. Just a correction to bounch upwards again, or don't we trust the market and get out?

 

[gene]

Given the current fundamental factors for this market, I don't know if I fully trust the seasonal tendancies, this year. Maybe parts of it will be valid while other parts aren't. For whatever it's worth, take a look:
http://www.futuresbuzz.com/seasonal_charts.html
This chart shows a seasonal decline for another week or so, then a rally, then a correction/stall lasting until the middle of May. With the fundamentals this year, maybe the stall won't hapen...maybe a rally all the way through until past the middle of May. Could this be the mega rally we've been waiting for? If it is, will the market collapse rapidly (as it has done after previous mega rallies) ? That's hard to imagine, given the fundamentals, but it's possible the market could rally way above it's true value because of speculator interest. And then: a great selling opportunity!

On the COT chart http://www.freecotcharts.com/charts/KC.htm , look at the exremes of the commercials and funds. Looks like a sizable correction is in order. That would coincide quite well with the seasonal chart.

The daily chart shows a pretty convincing breakout from a bear flag. How low can it go? If you believe in symetry on a chart, quite low. How low? I dunno. I'll just wait for some kind of buy signal. In the meantime, shorting is tempting, but I'm not comfortable shorting a bull market. I'll just trade other stuff while I wait for coffee to head back up.

(On my screen, some bars are missing until I click the 'enlarge' button.)

EDIT: Oh, yeah: There's an outside bar down on the weekly chart.

 

[Pippppin]

Nice sideways channel

The coffee thread has gone a bit quiet recently.......no doubt due to the recent sharp correction.

Personally, I always thought that talk of a bull market was a tad premature....however, I notice today that on the 60-minute intraday chart, coffee is trading in a tightening sideways channel, which MIGHT indicate that it has formed a new resistance point, and is about to head upwards..

Worth keeping an eye on..........

 

[gene]

"Worth keeping an eye on.........."
Oh, I am!
The fundamentals are extra bullish, this year, so the market may not follow the seasonal trrend. If it does, though, this correction may not be over. I read somewhere that an analyst is looking for a pull-back to around 110. The monthly chart has me wondering if it could go even lower. I've got my finger poised over the "buy" button. If it breaks upward from this current consolidation, I'm in....with my finger poised over the "exit" button if in case of a false breakout.

 

[The Kman]

What could be the new resistance levels?

 

[gene]

These, I guess.

 

[gene]

Or, just for the fun of it, how 'bout this one?!

 

[bgold]

Has Coffee's sharp bullmarket correction run its course?

Hello the Kman -

Yes, this recent sharp decline IS the March seasonal low I mentioned.

I am bullish for April/May, and project new highs sometime in April, with the next MAJOR seasonal peak due mate-May or Early June.

Fundamentals have not changed. Brazil frost premium will be biuilt into prices in the weeks ahead.

IMO.

Has Coffee's sharp bullmarket correction run its course? The correction from the 140+ highs down to 113.5 can be counted as a typical .382 abc EWave correction whereby lenghth a=c (see chart)
I am waiting for a buy signal.
Dave, I am keen to hear your analysis?