Classic FX

[Depth Trade]

Bias for the week is short USD.

Lumber prices are up along with high grade copper and aluminum. Obviously having weakened the USD versus lumber and manufacturing metals, leaves USD business ventures having to spend more, along with a weakened USD as the result.
Housing starts are off almost -6%, that combined with high material prices, drastically neutralizes any chances of strength in the USD.
Looking over bonds, we have bonds making new lows, also resulting in traders having to find safety in other products besides the USD.

Usd/Cad
Usd/Chf
Usd/Jpy
Position value: 0.49% of balance.

Classic Fx
start date (10/04/10)
Closed Balance
+0.0%




The Latest Gold Fraud Bombshell: Canada's Only Bullion Bank Gold Vault Is Practically Empty
Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/07/2010 10:30 -0500

Continuing on the trail of exposing what is rapidly becoming one of the largest frauds in commodity markets history is the most recent interview by Eric King with GATA's Adrian Douglas, Harvey Orgen (who recently testified before the CFTC hearing) and his son, Lenny, in which the two discuss their visit to the only bullion bank vault in Canada, that of ScotiaMocatta, located at 40 King Street West in Toronto, and find the vault is practically empty. This is a relevant segue to a class action lawsuit filed against Morgan Stanley, which was settled out of court, in which it was alleged that Morgan Stanley told clients it was selling them precious metals that they would own in full and that the company would store, yet even despite charging storage fees was not in actual possession of the bullion. It appears that this kind of lack of physical holdings by all who claim to have gold in storage, is pervasive as the actual gold globally is held primarily in paper or electronic form. Lenny Organ who was the person to enter the vault of ScotiaMocatta, says "What shocked me was how little gold and silver they actually had." Lenny describes exactly how much (or little as the case may be) silver was available - roughly 60,000 ounces. As for gold - 210 400 oz bars, 4,000 maples, 500 eagles, 10 kilo bars, 10 one kilogram pieces of gold nugget form, which Adrian Douglas calculates as being $100 million worth, which is just one tenth of what the Royal Mint of Canada sold in 2008, or over $1 billion worth of gold. As Orgen concludes: "The game ends when the people who own all these paper obligations say enough and take physical delivery, and that's when the mess will occur."

Also note the interesting detour into what Stephan Spicer of the Central Fund Of Canada, said regarding his friend at a major bank, who wanted access to his 15,000 oz of silver, and had to wait 6-8 weeks for its to be flown in from Hong Kong.

It is funny that central bankers thought they could take the ponzi mentality of infinite dilution of all assets coupled with infinite debt issuance, as they have done to fiat money, and apply it to gold, in essence piling leverage upon leverage. They underestimated gold holders' willingness to be diluted into perpetuity - when the realization that gold owned is just 1% of what is physically deliverable, you will see the biggest bank run in history.

Still holding USD short against the following positions.

Usd/Cad: +55 pips
Usd/Chf: +140 pips
Usd/Jpy: +22 pips




Argentina seizes pension funds to pay debts. Who's next?

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Economics Last updated: October 21st, 2008

Here is a warning to us all. The Argentine state is taking control of the country’s privately-managed pension funds in a drastic move to raise cash.

Should we worry about our pensions?

It is a foretaste of what may happen across the world as governments discover that tax revenue, and discover that the bond markets are unwilling to plug the gap. The G7 states are already acquiring an unhealthy taste for the arbitrary seizure of private property, I notice.
Here is a link from La Nacion and another from El Pais for Spanish speakers:

So, over $29bn of Argentine civic savings are to be used as a funding kitty for the populist antics of President Cristina Kirchner. This has been dressed up as an anti-corruption and efficiency move. Aren’t they always?

Argentine sovereign debt was trading at 29 cents on the dollar today, pushing the yield to 25pc. Tempted?

Credit Default Swaps on Argentine bonds reached 2,900. Do we have a Latin Iceland on our hands, but with 100 times the population? Or several, Pakistan, Ukraine, Hungary? …… Switzerland? Australia? Britain?

The funds being targeted are known as AFJPs or retirement accounts, but how long will it now be before Mrs Kirchner cracks down on the entire $97bn pool of private pensions? There are a lot of much-needed hard currency assets in those portfolios.

“A state takeover of pensions creates all kinds of doubts and throws into relief the extreme financing needs of the government next year,” said Jorge Alberti, from ElAccionista.com

Needless to say, the Kirchner government (part II) is unable to raise any money on the global markets at a tolerable price.

Investors have already been burned by her stealth default on Argentina’s index linked bonds. This was achieved by sacking the head of the statistics office and rigging the inflation data (by 20pc annually, or so.)

Frankly, I am a little surprised that Argentina’s 2001 default – the biggest in history – was not a severe enough burning in itself for investors. But political risk seems to be a blind spot for some asset managers. And then there was the great agro-boom of 2005-2007 so all was forgiven, until commodities went into free-fall in May.

President Kirchner has been eyeing the pension pool for some time. Last year she pushed through new rules forcing them to invest more money inside the country – always a warning signal.

My fear is that governments in the US, Britain, and Europe will display similar reflexes. Indeed, they have already done so. The forced-feeding of banks with fresh capital – whether they want it or not – and the seizure of the Fannie/Freddie mortgage giants before they were in fact in trouble (in order to prevent a Chinese buying strike of US bonds and prevent a spike in US mortgage rates), shows that private property can be co-opted – or eliminated – with little due process if that is required to serve the collective welfare. This is a slippery slope. I hope Paulson, Darling, and Lagarde tread with great care. I do not expect Steinbruck to tread with any care.

The Merval index of stocks in Buenos Aires is down 12.6pc as I write. Telecom Argentina took it badly (-25pc), so did Grupo Financiero Galicia (-13pc) and Banco Frances (-20pc).



Foreign sellers?

 

[Depth Trade]

Bias for the week is short USD.

Lumber prices are up along with high grade copper and aluminum. Obviously having weakened the USD versus lumber and manufacturing metals, leaves USD business ventures having to spend more, along with a weakened USD as the result.
Housing starts are off almost -6%, that combined with high material prices, drastically neutralizes any chances of strength in the USD.
Looking over bonds, we have bonds making new lows, also resulting in traders having to find safety in other products besides the USD.

Usd/Cad
Usd/Chf
Usd/Jpy
Position value: 0.49% of balance.

Classic Fx
start date (10/04/10)
Closed Balance
+0.0%

Still holding Usd short against the following positions.


Usd/Cad: + 15 pips
Usd/Chf: + 80 pips
Usd/Jpy: + 1 pip




Banks Resist Plans to Reduce Mortgage Balances
April 14, 2010, 1:50 am
In a rebuff to the Obama administration, two big banks on Tuesday drew a line in the sand on cutting the mortgage balances of beleaguered homeowners, saying that the tool would be applied sparingly.

The idea of reducing loan principals last month became a centerpiece of the administration’s efforts to help seven million households threatened with foreclosure, David Streitfeld reports in The New York Times. But an official at one of the banks, David Lowman of JPMorgan Chase, said principal reduction could reward households for consuming more than they could afford, might punish future homeowners by raising the cost of borrowing and in any case was simply unworkable.

“We are concerned about large-scale broad-based principal reduction programs,” Mr. Lowman, the bank’s chief executive for home lending, testified during a hearing of the House Financial Services committee.

Mr. Lowman’s comments were briefly echoed in more restrained form by an executive from Wells Fargo. “Principal forgiveness is not an across-the-board solution,” said the executive, Mike Heid, co-president of Wells Fargo Home Mortgage. Two other bankers who testified, from Bank of America and Citigroup, largely avoided the issue.

A Treasury Department spokeswoman declined to comment on the hearing.

The government modification program has been under attack by lawmakers and community groups for doing too little too slowly. The Congressional Oversight Panel is issuing a report Wednesday that says, “Treasury’s response continues to lag well behind the pace of the crisis.”

In response, the Treasury Department said that its latest modification report, also to be released Wednesday, showed that the number of permanent modifications grew in March to 230,000 households, an increase of 35 percent from the previous month. The Treasury also stressed it was still introducing programs, including those aimed at reducing mortgage principal.

The testimony on Tuesday, however, offered the first public acknowledgment that these latest foreclosure prevention measures might encounter some resistance among banks, ultimately rendering them less effective than hoped.

One of the new government programs will require lenders to strongly consider reducing the mortgage balance for distressed borrowers who qualify for the government’s modification plan.

A more radical plan urges lenders to refinance loans for borrowers who may be solvent but who owe much more on their homes than they are worth. Many of these loans have been securitized into investment pools but are serviced by the big banks.

The investment pool would get the mortgage off its books for the current market value of the property — less than it is owed, perhaps, but more than it would receive if the house went into foreclosure. The borrower would receive a new government-insured loan at market value, presumably making him less likely to walk away.

It is this last program that seemed to irk JPMorgan Chase.

“If we rewrite the mortgage contract retroactively to restore equity to any mortgage borrower because the value of his or her home declined, what responsible lender will take the equity risk of financing mortgages in the future?” Mr. Lowman asked in his prepared comments.

In any case, he said, Chase cannot rewrite most of these deals. The bank’s contractual arrangements with the investors do not allow for principal reduction.

Furthermore, Mr. Lowman argued, the cost of reducing principal will be built into future loans, resulting in less access to credit and higher costs for consumers.

What Chase — one of the strongest of the big banks — might be really worried about is not the primary mortgages it services but the $133 billion in home equity loans and lines of credit it carries on its own books.

The question of what happens to these secondary loans in a mortgage modification was at the heart of the Congressional hearing on Tuesday.

Investors who own the primary loans argue that the others should be second in line, getting only the money that is left over after they have been satisfied. But banks like Chase, which own the majority of second loans, want a better deal. Since they have the power to disrupt any modification, the result so far has been a standoff.

Alan M. White, an assistant professor at Valparaiso University School of Law who has closely studied the various modification plans, said, “Chase and Wells are attacking a straw man. Nobody is arguing for across-the-board principal reduction. But I think that they feel a need to push back hard on any attempts to get them to write down the troubled second mortgages and home equity lines of credit in their portfolios.”

Mr. Lowman emphasized the moral side of the issue. Mandating write-downs in home equity loans would be a particularly bad idea, he said, because these loans were simply used to consume rather than pay for housing.

 

[Depth Trade]

Bias for the week is short USD.

Lumber prices are up along with high grade copper and aluminum. Obviously having weakened the USD versus lumber and manufacturing metals, leaves USD business ventures having to spend more, along with a weakened USD as the result.
Housing starts are off almost -6%, that combined with high material prices, drastically neutralizes any chances of strength in the USD.
Looking over bonds, we have bonds making new lows, also resulting in traders having to find safety in other products besides the USD.

Usd/Cad
Usd/Chf
Usd/Jpy
Position value: 0.49% of balance.

Classic Fx
start date (10/04/10)
Closed Balance
+0.0%

Have exited Usd/Cad position. Still holding Usd/chf, Usd/jpy.

Usd/cad: out -97.3 pips

Usd/chf: + 38.6 pips

Usd/jpy: +112.6 pips



Foreclosure rates surge, biggest jump in 5 years
By ALEX VEIGA, AP Real Estate Writer Alex Veiga, Ap Real Estate Writer – Thu Apr 15, 7:32 am ET
LOS ANGELES – A record number of U.S. homes were lost to foreclosure in the first three months of this year, a sign banks are starting to wade through the backlog of troubled home loans at a faster pace, according to a new report.

RealtyTrac Inc. said Thursday that the number of U.S. homes taken over by banks jumped 35 percent in the first quarter from a year ago. In addition, households facing foreclosure grew 16 percent in the same period and 7 percent from the last three months of 2009.

More homes were taken over by banks and scheduled for a foreclosure sale than in any quarter going back to at least January 2005, when RealtyTrac began reporting the data, the firm said.

"We're right now on pace to see more than 1 million bank repossessions this year," said Rick Sharga, a RealtyTrac senior vice president.

Foreclosures began to ease last year as banks came under pressure from the Obama administration to modify home loans for troubled borrowers. In addition, some states enacted foreclosure moratoriums in hopes of giving homeowners behind in payments time to catch up. And in many cases, banks have had trouble coping with how to handle the glut of problem loans.

These factors have helped slow the pace of foreclosures, but now that trend appears to be reversing.

"We're finally seeing the banks start to process the inventory that has been in foreclosure, but delayed in processing," Sharga said. "We expect the pace to accelerate as the year goes on."

In all, more than 900,000 households, or one in every 138 homes, received a foreclosure-related notice, RealtyTrac said. The firm based in Irvine, Calif., tracks notices for defaults, scheduled home auctions and home repossessions.

Homeowners continue to fall behind on payments because they've lost their job or seen their mortgage payment rise due to an interest-rate reset. Many are unable to refinance because they now owe more on their loan than their home is worth.

The Obama administration's $75 billion foreclosure prevention program has only been able to help a small fraction of troubled homeowners.

About 231,000 homeowners have completed loan modifications as part of the Obama administration's flagship foreclosure prevention program through March. That's about 21 percent of the 1.2 million borrowers who began the program over the past year.

But another 158,000 homeowners who signed up have dropped out — either because they didn't make payments or failed to return the necessary documents. That's up from about 90,000 just a month earlier.

Last month, the administration expanded the program, launching a plan to reduce the amount some troubled borrowers owe on their home loans and give jobless homeowners a temporary break. But the details of those programs are expected to take months to work out.

The states with the highest foreclosure rates in the first quarter were Nevada, Arizona, Florida and California, with Nevada leading the pack, RealtyTrac said.

Rising home prices and speculation fueled a wave of home construction there during the housing boom. But now the state, particularly around the Las Vegas metropolitan area, is saddled with a glut of unsold homes.

Still, the number of homes in Nevada that received a foreclosure filing dropped 16 percent from the first quarter last year.

All told, one in every 33 homes in Nevada was facing foreclosure, more than four times the national average, RealtyTrac said.

Foreclosure filings rose on an annual and quarterly basis in Arizona, however.

One in every 49 homes there received a foreclosure-related notice during the quarter.

Florida, meanwhile, posted the third-highest foreclosure rate with one out of every 57 properties receiving a foreclosure filing.

California accounted for the biggest slice overall of homes facing foreclosure — roughly 23 percent of the nation's total. One in every 62 properties received a foreclosure filing in the first quarter.

 

[Depth Trade]

Have exited Usd/Cad position. Still holding Usd/chf, Usd/jpy.

Usd/cad: out -97.3 pips

Usd/chf: + 38.6 pips

Usd/jpy: +112.6 pips

Have exited last held positions: Usd/Chf, Usd/Jpy

Usd/Chf: out + 33.1 pips

Usd/Jpy: out + 90.9 pips

Classic Fx
start date (10/04/10)
Closed Balance
+ 26.7 pips

 

[Depth Trade]

Have entered the following positions.

Usd/Jpy: short 92.12 6

Eur/Chf: short 1.4326 8

Eur/Gbp: short .8783 5

Eur/Jpy: short 124.40 1


Classic Fx
start date (10/04/10)
Closed Balance
+ 26.7 pips




$4.00 A Gallon Gasoline By The End Of 2010? How In The World Are Average Americans Going To Make Ends Meet If This Keeps Up?
Michael Snyder
Posted on 04/14/10 at 1:45am by Michael Snyder

Gas prices are on the rise again. In many areas of the U.S. gas prices are already hovering around $3.00 a gallon. In fact there are some areas where people are paying as much as $3.50 a gallon, and many experts are predicting that gasoline could hit $4.00 a gallon by the end of 2010. If this nonsense keeps up, how in the world is the average American family supposed to make ends meet? Not only is filling up our tanks going to cost a lot more, but the price of gasoline factors into so many other things. The U.S. economy just cannot handle a major increase in transportation costs at this point. These increasing gasoline prices come at a time when U.S. consumers are already stretched to the max.

But it isn't just gasoline prices that are going up. The price of food is really starting to rise as well. Rising demand and reduced supply drove supermarket prices for 16 basic foods up 6.2% in the first quarter of 2010.

Now, for those Americans who are independently wealthy, a large increase in gasoline and food prices might not mean much.

But for the rest of us who are trying to get our incomes to stretch as far as possible each month, it means a whole lot.

In fact, a record number of working Americans are finding that their paychecks are just not making it and are turning to government assistance programs such as food stamps just to make it.

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, approximately 39.4 million Americans, a new all-time record, received food stamps in January. This was up 22% from a year earlier. In fact, the number of Americans on food stamps has hit all-time records for 14 consecutive months.

New all-time records for 14 months in a row?

How in the world can anyone claim that the U.S. economy is in good shape?

And it is just not people who are out of work or who are lazy who are applying for food stamps. The truth is that a lot of hard working Americans who are doing everything they can to better themselves find themselves out of alternatives these days.

Some of those hard working Americans are readers of this site. One of them recently left a comment that is very timely....

There are people on food stamps now, that you would never think they were. For example myself, I just went on food stamps last month. I am not a welfare mom, unemployed or declaring bankruptcy, I am educated and working as hard as I can to make ends meet.

I hold a Masters degree, and a part time job. I make minimum wage and if I were scheduled 40 hours a week my pay would just cover my expenses. Problem is, with retail the number of hours changes from week to week, and it hasn’t been near 40 since Christmas. Luckily I planned ahead and put money aside if I couldn’t find a job right out of school, or if I found one and lost it with today’s economy. I have been able to cover the bills my paycheck doesn’t, but the thing is, my savings has gotten low to that.

I honestly really didn’t want to go on food stamps, I just can’t find another job. Let that be a full time position, or even another part time one. I’m applying to everything I’m qualified for, remotely qualified for, and even over qualified for. But there really are that few of jobs out there.

I haven’t really told anyone I’m on food stamps, a good portion of my old friends are still in school and don’t understand why I can’t find a “real” job. Luckily at my new job there’s a whole store of people who know exactly what I’m going through and would never think of judging me for how much I make or where I live.

There are other people too. Once at work a mother with three kids came in, she had never used food stamps before and had no idea what to do at the register. She almost came to tears trying to explain she really didn’t want to use them, but her husband lost his job, and all that was left for the family was her part time job, and she was so ashamed they had them.

People really have no idea how many of their neighbors are on food stamps.

----

Millions of Americans have done everything that the system has told them to do, and now the system is letting them down.

Why?

Because the system is failing.

The middle class is slowly being squeezed out of existence, and the years ahead are going to be very painful.

Already, it is getting extremely hard to live a middle class lifestyle.

If you haven't read "It’s Impossible to Get By In the US" by Graham Summers of Phoenix Capital Research, you really need to. In his article, Summers analyzes the expenses of a typical family making the median U.S. household income of $50,300 (he was using 2008 figures). According to Summers, if a family making that much did everything right financially, they would maybe have a couple hundred bucks at the end of the month for discretionary spending. But if they overpaid for their house or had any consumer debt then according to his calculations the typical American family would be operating in the red.

The truth is that the day is fast approaching when it will not be possible for the average American family to make it from month to month.

Even now record numbers of American families are failing financially.

In March 2010, there were 158,000 bankruptcy filings. That was up 19% from March 2009's number, and it was also up 35% from February 2010's number.

Things are getting scary out there.

But if all of that wasn't bad enough, now state and local governments across the United States are either implementing or are considering substantial tax increases. State and local governments all over the U.S. are facing unprecedented shortfalls, and they are looking for new sources of revenue. But you just can't get blood out of a stone. Unfortunately, they are likely to keep finding ways to impose new taxes on us anyway.

So is there any good news?

No, not really.

The United States is heading for a complete economic collapse and everyone is going to feel the pain one way or another.

Just make sure that you and your family are as prepared as possible for the years ahead.

"The way to crush the bourgeoisie is to grind them between the millstones of taxation and inflation."
-Vladimir Lenin

 

[Depth Trade]

Have entered the following positions.

Usd/Jpy: short 92.12 6

Eur/Chf: short 1.4326 8

Eur/Gbp: short .8783 5

Eur/Jpy: short 124.40 1


Classic Fx
start date (10/04/10)
Closed Balance
+ 26.7 pips

Still holding previous positions.

Usd/Jpy: + 0.5 pips

Eur/Chf: - 16 pips

Eur/Gbp: - 21 pips

Eur/Jpy: + 60 pips


Economic data being released in 10 minutes:
US March Leading Indicators

 

[Depth Trade]

Have entered the following positions.

Usd/Jpy: short 92.12 6

Eur/Chf: short 1.4326 8

Eur/Gbp: short .8783 5

Eur/Jpy: short 124.40 1


Classic Fx
start date (10/04/10)
Closed Balance
+ 26.7 pips

Still holding previous entered positions.


Usd/Jpy: - 113

Eur/Chf: -6.5

Eur/Gbp: + 88.3

Eur/Jpy: - 54.4



Classic Fx
start date (10/04/10)
Closed Balance
+ 26.7 pips


US goes high-tech to redesign the $100 bill
Published on April 21, 2010 10:05 AM

Associated Press | The folks who print America's money have designed a high-tech makeover of the $100 bill. It's part of an effort to stay ahead of counterfeiters as technology becomes more sophisticated and more dollars flow overseas, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke says.

The makeover, unveiled Wednesday, may leave people wondering if there is magic involved.

Benjamin Franklin is still on the $100 bill, also known as C-note, but he has been joined by a disappearing Liberty Bell in an inkwell and a bright blue security ribbon composed of thousands of tiny lenses that magnify objects in mysterious ways. Move the bill and the objects move in a different direction. See also

The government hopes the new bills will make it harder for high-tech counterfeiters to replicate.

The new currency will not go into circulation until Feb. 10 of next year, giving the government time to educate the public in the United States and around the world about all the changes.

"We estimate that as many as two-thirds of all $100 notes circulate outside the United States," said Bernanke, who stressed that the 6.5 billion in $100 bills now in circulation will remain legal tender.

The $100 bill, the highest value denomination in general circulation, is the last bill to undergo an extensive redesign. The Bureau of Engraving and Printing began the process in 2003, adding splashes of color to spruce up first the $20 and then the $50, $10 and $5 bills. The $1 bill isn't getting a makeover.

The changes are aimed at thwarting counterfeiters who are armed with ever-more sophisticated computers, scanners and color copiers.

The $100 bill is the most frequent target of counterfeiters operating outside of the United States while the $20 bill is the favorite target of counterfeiters inside the country.

The redesigned $100 bill had originally been expected to go into circulation in late 2008 but it's introduction was delayed to give the government time to refine all the new security features.

The government has prepared education resources in 25 languages to inform the public about the design changes and is giving people a chance to view the new bills on its website.

"We wanted the changes to be very obvious, visible and easy to see," Larry Felix, director of the Bureau of Engraving and Printing, said in an interview with The Associated Press.

The new blue security ribbon will give a 3-D effect to the micro-images that the thousands of lenses will be magnifying. Tilt the note back and forth and you will see tiny bells on the ribbon change to 100s as they move.

But that's not all. Tilt the note back and forth and the images will move side to side. Tilt the note side to side and the images will move up and down.

In addition, to the left of Franklin's portrait, will be an inkwell that will change color from copper to green when the note is tilted. The movement will also make a Liberty Bell appear and disappear inside the inkwell.

"As with previous U.S. currency redesigns, this note incorporates the best technology available to ensure we're staying ahead of counterfeiters," Geithner said.

Franklin will remain on the front of the $100 bill and Independence Hall in Philadelphia will remain on the back of the currency although both have been modified in ways aimed at making it harder to produce counterfeit copies of the bills.

"The new security features announced today come after more than a decade of research and development to protect our currency from counterfeiting," said U.S. Treasurer Rosie Rios, whose signature along with Geithner's will appear on the new currency.

 

[pssonice]

do u enter the market depending on certain price level or time and level ? please add the time u are entering the market, something like this given in terms of CET time
"1523 EURUSD -13392 ... so.exp.
1526 EURUSD +13404 ... R.exp
1542 EURUSD +13410 ... R.exp
1601 EURUSD -13402 ... so.exp.
1602 ES -1205 ... top
1706 EURUSD -13388 ... no bottom
1738 ES -1198 ... no bottom
1743 EURUSD +13382 ... bottom
1900 EURUSD -13407 ... top
2047 EURUSD +13394 ... bottom
2048 ES +1196 ... bottom "
looks quite better to all the viewers

 

[Depth Trade]

do u enter the market depending on certain price level or time and level ? please add the time u are entering the market, something like this given in terms of CET time
"1523 EURUSD -13392 ... so.exp.
1526 EURUSD +13404 ... R.exp
1542 EURUSD +13410 ... R.exp
1601 EURUSD -13402 ... so.exp.
1602 ES -1205 ... top
1706 EURUSD -13388 ... no bottom
1738 ES -1198 ... no bottom
1743 EURUSD +13382 ... bottom
1900 EURUSD -13407 ... top
2047 EURUSD +13394 ... bottom
2048 ES +1196 ... bottom "
looks quite better to all the viewers

Hello pssonice, I welcome your comments.
I can not think of anyway easier to post my entrances, than the way I already am. Your way of posting makes absolutely zero sense to me. It is irrelevent information that is confusing to newbies and veterans. The only thing that really matters is that the time stamp of the post correlates with my entrance and prices I then proceed to post.
Looks straight forwards to me. Everything correlates with prices that have already traded. I can not think of anyway easier to post my entrances.

Have entered the following positions.

Usd/Jpy: short 92.12 6

Eur/Chf: short 1.4326 8

Eur/Gbp: short .8783 5

Eur/Jpy: short 124.40 1


Classic Fx
start date (10/04/10)
Closed Balance
+ 26.7 pips

 

[Depth Trade]

Have entered the following positions.

Usd/Jpy: short 92.12 6

Eur/Chf: short 1.4326 8

Eur/Gbp: short .8783 5

Eur/Jpy: short 124.40 1


Classic Fx
start date (10/04/10)
Closed Balance
+ 26.7 pips

Am still holding previous entered positions.

Usd/jpy: - 69 pips

Eur/chf: + 1.3 pips

Eur/Gbp: + 104 pips

Eur/jpy: + 15 pips


Classic Fx
start date (10/04/10)
Closed Balance
+ 26.7 pips



The Grudge Match Over Your 401(k)

By ELEANOR LAISE

Attention, workers: A battle is brewing over your 401(k).

A number of people who are changing jobs, being laid off or retiring are finding themselves in a tug-of-war between their former employers and investment firms eager to win their business. At stake: almost $400 billion of assets in 401(k)s and similar retirement plans that are eligible to be rolled over into other vehicles this year, according to Allianz SE's Pacific Investment Management Co., or Pimco.

When an employee leaves a job, he or she is generally free to roll over certain retirement accounts like a 401(k) into an individual retirement account. But many employers, for the first time, are trying to hang on to their 401(k) participants.

Some plan providers and employers, such as International Paper Co., are dangling carrots like low-cost investment options, financial planning or annuity-like products. Others are using sticks, criticizing IRA rollover advertisements or dragging their feet when workers ask for withdrawals. A few, including the National Football League, have even erected barriers to keep people in their plans for a certain number of years. NFL spokesman Brian McCarthy says a rule change "could be considered as part of a new collective bargaining agreement."

Big IRA players are fighting back. Firms like Charles Schwab Corp., Fidelity Investments and Scottrade in recent months have rolled out new online calculators, blogs and other features in an effort to boost their IRA business. Some firms even shower investors with cash to attract rollover dollars. TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. and E*Trade Financial Corp., for example, are offering up to $500 to people who sign on.

Historically, most employers have been happy to see retirees and job-changers take 401(k) balances with them, in part because of the headaches involved in keeping them in the plan. But that is changing. According to a survey by management consultant Casey Quirk & Associates LLC, roughly two-thirds of plans with more than $1 billion in assets said they want to retain worker accounts after retirement. The result "was a shocker," says Ben Phillips, a partner at the firm.

It all adds up to confusion for many workers. Scott Madden, 46 years old, of Portland, Ore., left his job as a project manager for a software company in mid-March, but his $240,000-in-assets 401(k) is sitting with his old employer. Mr. Madden is leaning toward rolling that money over to a traditional IRA, but has also considered a Roth, which would mean paying taxes up front but getting future tax-free withdrawals. He got a brochure from his 401(k) plan provider highlighting the benefits of leaving his money where it is, but he isn't persuaded that that is the best option.

"The most difficult thing about retirement is all these suppositions you have to make" about tax rates, expected returns, and other factors, Mr. Madden says. Having maxed out his 401(k) for the past 15 years, he says, "I like to have my future secure, and I'm having a hard time doing that" because of all the uncertainties.

Investors deciding what to do with an old 401(k) must consider a range of factors, from fees and investment options to potential future tax-rate changes. While the 401(k) plan may offer investment choices not otherwise available to individual investors, it may also offer a more limited menu overall, with just a couple of dozen choices. A 401(k) plan's fees can also be difficult to decipher. And some workers may simply have more trust in a longtime employer than in a financial-services firm seeking to attract their IRA business.

New tools are emerging to help investors weigh their options. BrightScope, a retirement-plan research firm, early this year introduced a "personal 401(k) fee report," which offers a quick snapshot of plan costs and how they'll affect a nest egg over the long haul. Users can then compare these costs to their IRA alternatives.

Employers want to hang on to workers' money for several reasons. The larger the plan's assets, generally, the lower the fees employers can negotiate with plan providers and fund firms like Fidelity, T. Rowe Price Group Inc. and Vanguard Group. A bigger asset base also helps employers get non-mutual fund options like collective funds, which often have lower costs, and more customized investments such as target-date funds composed of others funds on the plan's menu.

With employers seeing the start of the baby boomer retirement wave, large plans "realized they weren't going to be so large anymore, and wouldn't get the same level of price breaks," says Casey Quirk's Mr. Phillips.

Regulators and lawmakers have lately lent a hand to employers. The Labor and Treasury departments in February asked for public comments on the notion of providing annuities and other income-producing products in employer-sponsored retirement plans. And after being lobbied by groups representing plan providers and employers, the Senate in March passed a measure that would allow certain 401(k) assets to be converted to a Roth 401(k). Currently, workers can only convert existing retirement-plan savings to a Roth account using an IRA.

Employers aren't waiting around for legislative help, though. The state of North Carolina recognized the importance of keeping people in its $4.5 billion defined-contribution plan a couple of years ago, as financial markets started to sink. Now, it offers preretirement counseling sessions where workers are encouraged to stay in the plan. Employees who contact the plan's call center to ask for a lump-sum distribution are led through a discussion of other options before they're sent a check. Though departing workers in the past were handed retirement-plan withdrawal forms, "we're really trying to train folks so that's not the first form that goes in front of a departing employee," says state treasurer Janet Cowell. Ms. Cowell has crisscrossed the state in recent weeks, promoting the benefits of retirement counseling and other services for plan participants.

Employers are also making more use of annuity-like investments or other products designed to deliver a steady stream of income to retired 401(k) participants. The number of retirement plans offering Prudential Financial Inc.'s IncomeFlex Target, which provides guaranteed lifetime income, nearly doubled last year, to about 170. Prudential late last year unveiled a new 401(k) package that encourages employers to enroll workers automatically and direct employee contributions to that product.

Some employers, meanwhile, are enticing workers to stay in 401(k)s by playing up their cheap or unique investment options. These might include non-mutual-fund products not available in IRAs, like collective funds and stable-value funds, which are designed to protect principal and deliver steady returns. At International Paper, for example, the most popular 401(k) investment is the stable-value fund. "That's another reason that people might want to stay in the plan," says Bob Hunkeler, vice president of investments.

 

[Depth Trade]

Have entered the following positions.

Usd/Jpy: short 92.12 6

Eur/Chf: short 1.4326 8

Eur/Gbp: short .8783 5

Eur/Jpy: short 124.40 1


Classic Fx
start date (10/04/10)
Closed Balance
+ 26.7 pips

Am still holding the previously entered positios.


Usd/jpy: -88 pips

Eur/Chf: -1 pip

Eur/Gbp: +140 pips

Eur/Jpy: +79 pips


Classic Fx
start date (10/04/10)
Closed Balance
+ 26.7 pips




Fred Hickey: If We Continue Down This Path, the Outlook is General Impoverishment for the Country

By Damien Hoffman
Posted on April 20 2010. ShareThis

A few weeks ago, I asked Fred Hickey what he would do as chairman of the Federal Reserve. In the remainder of our interview, I asked Fred whether we can avoid recessions in a business cycle, what will happen to the US Dollar, how our creditors are behaving, and what advice he can offer given the new economic environment.

Damien Hoffman: Fred, can we create a perpetual business cycle where we don’t get recessions?

Fred: No. I have a quotation on my board here that says, “The final outcome of the curve expansion is general impoverishment.” That means if we continue down this path the outlook, unfortunately, is general impoverishment for the country.

I hope that’s not how it’s going to play out. But I’m not particularly optimistic with the current leadership that we have in government today.

At some point the dollar is going to break down — really break down. Right now there’s still a rush to safety from the worry about Europe. But I don’t know why they’re so worried about Europe when we’re the ones with the trillions of dollars of deficits.

Damien: It’s an ironic flight to safety. It’s almost a cosmic comedy.

Fred: It’s just a Pavlovian reaction. However, at some point that won’t be the reaction and the dollar will get crushed. Eventually there will be some recognition that this country is broke. No one seems to be talking about this, but in a recent US Treasury foreign holdings report I saw a flat line where the mainland Chinese were not buying our treasuries anymore. Their position was holding; meaning, they were buying just enough to offset the maturing bonds. Now we’re seeing outright declines. This has gone on for several months and now it’s an outright decline.

Damien: What about the Russians?

Fred: The Russians are also reducing their positions. They reduced $10 billion in December and it’s dropped from a $140 billion almost to $118 billion over the last few months.

The Russians have been out there saying they’re buying gold, Canadian bonds, and diversifying their positions. Well, here they are doing it. At some point, enough people around the world will say they don’t want to be in dollars anymore and they will get out. It looks to me that the Chinese and the Russians are getting out.

The smart guys are leaving the ship and it looks to me like we’re replacing them with are our own printed money as well as hedge funds who are borrowing money and buying treasuries. This is a very bad group to have. Those are not long term holders. That could reverse very quickly. If that happens you can have a dollar collapse.

Damien: So is gold the hard currency which will continue to win?

Fred: I never loose sleep with my big gold position, but I do loose sleep when I have a big dollar position. I always see pullbacks in gold as buying opportunities because what I’ve discussed are the big forces really moving things. There are very few people on this planet that understand the big macro picture behind the movement to gold. We’re now in a 10 year bull market in gold. We ran a twenty year bear market, so it might be a twenty year bull market. We may be only halfway through.

I’m not sweating $1100 gold as the top like so many others in this country. They see bubbles everywhere in gold. They never saw the bubble in real estate, never saw the bubble in stocks, never saw anything. However, all these people in the U.S. see a bubble in gold. I don’t see it. I sleep like a baby with my gold position.

Damien: Fred, given the situation our country faces, what type of advice do you give your children?

Fred: That’s a hard question. First, you must be willing to work hard at anything you do. Try to find something you enjoy and you can feel good about. It helps you work hard.

Save your money and don’t build up debts. I never get myself in any kind of trouble because I never had any debt. So, if I’m wrong I’m never going to get really destroyed because I don’t have leverage. Debt is a four letter word. I’m an old fashioned guy.

Don’t ignore history. There are a lot of lessons to be learned that many people seem to never learn. I have my kids reading what I consider to be many of the investment classics.

Damien: That’s great advice especially keeping out of debt. If most Americans just followed that one simple principle, we’d be in a whole different position right now.

Fred: If most individuals and our government.

Damien: Right. Well, thank you very much for the rare interview, Fred. Our readers really appreciate you taking the time.

 

[Depth Trade]

Have entered the following positions.

Usd/Jpy: short 92.12 6

Eur/Chf: short 1.4326 8

Eur/Gbp: short .8783 5

Eur/Jpy: short 124.40 1


Classic Fx
start date (10/04/10)
Closed Balance
+ 26.7 pips

Still holding the previous entered positions.

Usd/jpy: -129 pips

Eur/Chf: -5 pips

Eur/Gbp: +168 pips

Eur/Jpy: +80 pips



Classic Fx
start date (10/04/10)
Closed Balance
+ 26.7 pips




If The U.S. Economy Goes Into The Toilet Will It Result In A Complete And Total Collapse Of Society?

If the United States experiences a horrifying economic collapse (and it most definitely will), will that cause a complete and total collapse of society? Will we experience crime, violence, riots and social unrest on a scale that is unprecedented in U.S. history? Before you dismiss such notions as utter foolishness dreamed up by a few bloggers with too much time on their hands, perhaps you should consider what one of the biggest credit rating organizations in the world is saying. According to a report on sovereign debt by Moody's, the world's five biggest AAA-rated countries (including the United States) are all at risk of soaring debt costs and will have to implement austerity plans that threaten "social cohesion". In case you are wondering what happens when "social cohesion" starts to break down due to economic factors, just check out the recent examples in Iceland and Greece. If even Moody's is warning that there is a realistic possibility that "social cohesion" in the United States may break down due to economic factors, perhaps we should all start listening.

Or if you will not listen to Moody's, then perhaps you will listen to the man who has been called the top trends researcher in the entire world. Gerald Celente is the CEO of Trends Research Institute, and he is convinced that we are heading into what he calls "The Greatest Depression". The picture that he paints of the future of America is extremely alarming and extremely sobering. It would be easy to dismiss his forecasts as just the ramblings of another useless "talking head", but unfortunately Celente has been dead-on accurate time after time after time in the past. Considering his exemplary track record, what Celente says is coming next for America is incredibly frightening....

At this point you may be tempted to think that America has been through extremely tough economic times before (The Great Depression for example) and came through them okay.

So what is so different now?

Well, the truth is that the character of the American people is dramatically different. At the time of the Great Depression, the American people were tough, self-sufficient people who knew how to live off the land. Today, most Americans are weak, spoiled little children who will throw a temper tantrum whenever anyone tries to take their toys away. The character of the American people has been decaying for decades, and there is no way that the current crop of Americans has any chance of weathering a horrible economic depression the way Americans back in the 1930s did.

Already we are seeing early signs of what the rest of America could soon be like. The city of Detroit is a rotting, crime-ridden war zone that has a "real" unemployment rate of somewhere around 40 to 50 percent. The state of California has become a cesspool of gang violence, rampant unemployment, rising foreclosures, unchecked drug dealing, and depressing economic decline. Even in New York City we are seeing early signs of what is ahead. Residents are quite alarmed about the dramatic rise in violent crime that is happening throughout the city. Many New Yorkers were convinced that the days of "The Rotten Apple" were behind them, but economic problems are going to cause an increase in crime in just about any city.

But it just isn't crime that is on the rise. Millions of normal, law-abiding Americans are angry. This anger is coming out in various ways - including the Tea Party protests that are sweeping the nation. The majority of the American people are frankly disgusted with the government, and the approval ratings for both major parties continue to hover around record lows. As things continue to get worse for the U.S. economy, the anger of the American people is going to continue to rise.

All of this is causing many in the U.S. government to view "troublemakers" inside the United States as one of the greatest threats to national security. In fact, according to FBI Director Robert Mueller, "homegrown terrorists" represent as big a threat as al-Qaeda.

As big a threat as al-Qaeda?

For a top U.S. government official to come right out and make a statement like that is absolutely mind blowing.

Not only that, but now former U.S. President Bill Clinton is comparing Tea Party members to Timothy McVeigh.

Considering the fact that Timothy McVeigh received the death penalty, that is a very frightening parallel for Clinton to draw.

Does Clinton actually believe that Tea Party protesters should receive the same treatment as McVeigh?

Even more alarming is new legislation being pushed in the U.S. Senate. A new bill introduced by Senators John McCain and Joe Lieberman would allow the U.S. military to round up large numbers of Americans and detain them indefinitely without a trial if they "pose a threat" or if they have "potential intelligence value" or for any other reason the President of the United States "considers appropriate".

The reality is that as "necessary" as bills like that may seem to many as we edge ever closer to the breakdown of society, the reality is that the United States is quickly becoming just like so many of the other horrific totalitarian regimes that we have seen rise throughout the 20th and 21st centuries.

In fact a time may soon be coming when authorities in the U.S. may soon be able to legally utter this bone chilling phrase: "Your Papers Please!" Lawmakers in Washington D.C. working to create a new immigration "reform" bill have decided on a way to prevent employers from hiring illegal immigrants: a national biometric identification card that all American workers would be required to obtain.

Can you imagine being forced to carry around a national identification card?

Or worse?

A startup company developing "chipless RFID ink" has already tested its product on cattle and laboratory rats.

Could one day we all be required to sport an "RFID tatoo" to prove our identity to authorities?

Let's hope not.

But many of us never thought that the day would come when we would see things such as the Patriot Act, "no fly" lists, the NSA's warrantless wiretapping program, DNA databases, Guantanamo Bay or full-body scanners at airports that reveal the graphic details of our naked bodies either.

America is quickly changing. The next Great Depression is coming, and society is not going to be able to handle it. How the U.S. government (and governments around the world) handle the coming social problems is going to be very interesting to watch. Let's hope that all of this does not degenerate into the absolute societal nightmare that many are projecting that it could be.

 

[Depth Trade]

Have entered the following positions.

Usd/Jpy: short 92.12 6

Eur/Chf: short 1.4326 8

Eur/Gbp: short .8783 5

Eur/Jpy: short 124.40 1


Classic Fx
start date (10/04/10)
Closed Balance
+ 26.7 pips

Have exited all positions.


Usd/Jpy: -160.9

Eur/Chf: -34.4

Eur/Gbp: +73.7

Eur/Jpy: -147.4



Classic Fx
start date (10/04/10)
Closed Balance
-242.3 pips

 

[Depth Trade]

Have entered the following positions.

Aud/Usd: short .9271 5

Eur/Usd: short 1.3380 8

Usd/Chf: short 1.0730 4

Usd/Jpy: short 94.02 3

Eur/Gbp: short .8699 8



Governments Will 'Bankrupt Us': Marc Faber

Published: Thursday, 22 Apr 2010 | 5:22 AM ET
By: CNBC.com

Current economic policies are not sustainable and the world faces doom because "the governments are taking over", said Marc Faber, editor & publisher of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report.

"They will all bankrupt us and expropriate us, but it may not happen tomorrow. They'll give us something to play with, until the whole system breaks down...they'll just print money and print more money," he said on CNBC Thursday.

"What I object to the current government intervention in so-called 'solving the crisis', (is that) they haven't solved anything. They've just postponed it."

Faber warned that the "ultimate armageddon" would be much worse the next time around, as "governments will go bust", which would lead them to print more money.

He also warned that China's growth was "completely unsustainable in the long run," highlighting the red-hot property sector.

Goldman Sachs an 'Honest Firm'

Faber said the SEC's charges against Goldman Sachs [GS 157.40 -1.65 (-1.04%) ] were merely an excuse to print more money.

"I think Goldman Sachs is a very honest firm. They have a very strict compliance department compared to the others — they're like an angel. But they targeted Goldman as it stands as a symbol of Wall Street," Faber said.

With U.S. President Obama's ratings sliding due to the health care reforms, the government was going after the investment bank to distract the attention of the people, he claimed.

"Maybe the intention is not to hurt Goldman Sachs, but just to gain popularity with the middle class and the lower class of America, so they will perceive Mr. Obama to have done something against the evil of Wall Street."
In light of the current economic environment, investors should not own cash as it is going to be 'a disaster', said Faber.

"If you print money like in Zimbabwe... the purchasing power of money goes down, and the standards of living go down, and eventually, you have a civil war," he added.

Faber warned that the mood has turned very very negative among certain groups of society.

Instead of holding cash, Faber, commonly referred to as 'Dr Gloom', advised investors to "gradually accumulate physical gold and silver" while those who want exposure to shares of gold exploration companies should buy them from time-to-time when they become cheap.

"Some of them still have reasonably good value at the present time. This is a long-term strategy because in an environment where governments will print money — and I'm convinced they're gong to bailout Greece, which means you transfer essentially bad assets on to the balance sheet on the government," he said.

When that happens, Faber warned the purchasing power of paper money will go down, rather than an appreciation of precious metal prices.

"Paper money (will go) down relative to precious metals. So in that environment, I think you...should all accumulate some gold."

 

[Depth Trade]

Have entered the following positions.

Aud/Usd: short .9271 5

Eur/Usd: short 1.3380 8

Usd/Chf: short 1.0730 4

Usd/Jpy: short 94.02 3

Eur/Gbp: short .8699 8

Still holding previous positions.


Aud/usd: +9 pips

Eur/usd: +58 pips

Usd/chf: +36 pips

Usd/jpy: +9 pips

Eur/gbp: +78 pips

Open positions
+190 pips

Classic Fx
start date (10/04/10)
Closed Balance
-242.3 pips




Like 'the last days of Saigon': Angry and stranded, 350 British tourists cause near-riot at Bangkok airport

Hundreds of angry and frightened Britons left stranded in Thailand by the volcanic dust cloud today were battling for plane seats out of the country's capital.

Many were left to sleep on cardboard mats in Bangkok airport after their money ran out.

Some were also without a meal or roof over their heads because non-European airlines - including Thailand's main air carrier - declined to offer customers hotel accommodation which must be offered by air carriers under EU regulations.

The problems in Thailand have been exacerbated by a violent attempted coup being mounted on the streets of the capital by 'Red Shirts', supporters of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, which have left more than 20 dead.
The Foreign and Commonwealth Office has urged people to avoid Bangkok except for essential travel and elevated it to the No 1 destination from which to repatriate British tourists.
Today an estimated 350 Britons clutching 'promissory notes' angrily crowded around check-in desks after they were refused permission to board flights. One British official described the scene as like 'the last days of Saigon'.

Shouts of 'Tell us the truth!' 'Give us the information' and 'Get us out of here' went up as crowds surged in the main departure area.

'We have been stuck here since Saturday last week. Thai Airways tell us nothing. They don't tell their staff anything and check-in girls have been reduced to tears.
'We spend our time between our bedrolls and the check-in desks. Sometimes our bed rolls are not there when we go back.
'I would surely like to get my own back on these airline people. But the Embassy people here have been absolutely great. They are trying to put pressure on the airlines to get us out.
'We queue for stand-by and they give us pieces of paper, promissory notes, saying we will be on the next flight, and then it does not happen. There is no method in the system at all. People are going crazy.'

Ricky Payne, 44, from Grays, Essex, added: 'I've been here since Saturday with my wife and son and three other couples. They are telling us not to go into town. It's hell. We have to sleep on the floor.

'There are two male showers and two female showers for everyone. The frustration is nobody from Thai airways will tell us what is happening.'
Rebecca Sidwell, 26, and Shai Rappaport, 28, both actors from Clapham, south London, who are travelling on Jet airways, said that they had been told they could not leave until May 7, but they could not leave the airport as they no longer had any cash for a hotel and the airline was not paying.
Miss Sidwell said: 'The airport customer service people have been looking after us very well though. They have been providing food and bedding. But it took us five days just to get anyone at Jet Airways to answer their phones.'
But inside's better than out: Red Shirt protesters clash with riot police on the streets of Bangkok's financial district

Dale Toyne, 39, and Kate Surgay, 29, from Lincoln, were also travelling on Jet Airways.
Mr Toyne said: 'I had my wallet and credit cards stolen in Cambodia and my passport stolen in Bangkok, so Kate is looking after me until I get home. We do not know when that is going to be, nobody will tell us.'

Neil Giannoni, 48, from Jersey, a local government employee, trying to get home with his wife Christine, a teacher, said: 'Our money has been exhausted and we have heard out money may be docked for returning to work late.'

Peter Fallon, 31, and his partner Melissa Delaney, 26, from Lincoln, were attempting to get a Thai airlines flight.

Mr Fallon said: 'We have our 22-month-old son Vincent with us so we have had to get a cheap room in a local hotel. But we don't know if our money will last because we have no idea when we are going home.'
Fiona Small, 23, a nursery teacher and Melissa Cove, 25, a nurse, both from London and travelling by Jet Airways, said they called up their travel agent who managed to book them on a flight on May 1 with their original tickets.
Miss Small said: 'It's absolutely crazy. None of the airlines seem to be getting together and offering seats. Nobody is giving anything away. They are just waiting for a seat to become available whenever and could not care less about the well being of their passengers.'

Early today a lone British Embassy official was trying to placate passengers.

An Australian man is rushed to hospital after being injured by a grenade during the protests

We love the king: Pro-government supporters make their presence known today

'We believe 375 extra passengers will get away today. It's not going to be like last night we hope, that was like the last days of Saigon,' an official told Chris Trace, 50, a design engineer from Plymouth travelling with his wife.
Mr Trace said: 'Singapore Airlines have offered to fly us home. But they want £1,800.'

British Ambassador Quinton Quayle said: 'We are urgently working with tour operators, airlines, and the Thai authorities to help British nationals to return to the UK as soon as possible.
'We have assisted in getting people access to medical care and advising them how to get funds transferred.'

There was an uneasy truce in Bangkok today after last night’s blasts.
Red Shirt rebels, who are demanding elections and the resignation of prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, had a brief, early-morning confrontation with police then withdrew from their barricades of sharpened bamboo sticks.
The rebels deny carrying out the bombings, which the government has blamed on unnamed 'terrorists'.

 

[Depth Trade]

Have entered the following positions.

Aud/Usd: short .9271 5

Eur/Usd: short 1.3380 8

Usd/Chf: short 1.0730 4

Usd/Jpy: short 94.02 3

Eur/Gbp: short .8699 8

Economic data being released in 1 1/2 hours: 4/27 12:00 US March Midwest Manufacturing

Still holding previous positions.

Aud/Usd: +33 pips

Eur/Usd: +69 pips

Usd/Chf: +50 pips

Usd/Jpy: -41 pips

Eur/Gbp: +21 pips

Open positions.
+132 pips


Classic Fx
start date (10/04/10)
Closed Balance
-242.3 pips



Obama Debt Czar Says Tax Hikes “On The Table”

Paul Joseph Watson
Prison Planet.com
Monday, April 26, 2010

The Democratic co-chairman of President Obama’s debt commission, Erskine Bowles, told Fox News Sunday that tax hikes for Americans are “on the table,” despite Obama’s election campaign promise that no individual earning under $200,000 dollars a year would be hit with any tax increases.

Asked if he felt bound by the President’s pledge, Bowles responded, “Everything is on the table, we’re going to look at every single way to right this fiscal ship….raising revenue, we have to have everything on the table.”

Bowles also said that a European-style VAT tax, which would increase living costs by as much as 25 per cent, was also under consideration.

“I think that there are many good arguments that you could make for a value-added tax or a consumption tax as oppose to a tax on wages but I think it’s just one of the things that ought to be on the table that we ought to discuss.”

Bowles’ suggestion that a VAT tax would supplant or be offset by a reduction in income tax is likely a ruse. People in Europe pay the highest levels of income tax in the world but they are also forced to pay VAT on most goods at a level between 15-25 per cent in addition to costly income tax rates.

VAT taxes are typically introduced at low rates in order to dampen opposition, but then gradually raised over the course of decades. For example, Denmark’s VAT tax started at 9 per cent in 1962, but today has bloated to a whopping 25 per cent.

The 18 members of the debt commission will unveil their plan by December 1.

The prospect of income tax hikes contradicts Obama’s pre-election promise that he would not raise taxes for American families earning under a quarter of a million dollars a year.

During a speech on the campaign trail, Obama guaranteed, “No family making under $250,000 dollars a year will see any form of tax increase. Not your income tax, not your payroll tax, not your capital gains taxes, not any of your taxes.”

“You will not see any of your taxes increase one single dime,” Obama repeatedly vowed.

As we have highlighted, even aside from any income tax hikes, Americans already face a myriad of tax increases under Obamacare, a potential VAT tax, not to mention a future consumption tax based on CO2 emissions.

As the Associated Press reported On April 1, the largest ever increase in tobacco tax, and one that would disproportionately affect the poor, was passed by Obama despite his pledge to protect lower earners.

Last week, Obama himself said that a value-added tax, which would hit Americans across the income bracket but particularly the poor and struggling middle class, was “still on the table” just days after White House aides had assured otherwise.

 

[Depth Trade]

Have entered the following positions.

Aud/Usd: short .9271 5

Eur/Usd: short 1.3380 8

Usd/Chf: short 1.0730 4

Usd/Jpy: short 94.02 3

Eur/Gbp: short .8699 8

Still holding previous positions.
Position update after 12:00est economic data release: 4/27 12:00 US March Midwest Manufacturing

Aud/Usd: +126 pips

Eur/Usd: +199 pips

Usd/Chf: +141 pips

Usd/Jpy: -85 pips

Eur/Gbp: +61 pips

Open positions.
+442 :clover: pips

Classic Fx
start date (10/04/10)
Closed Balance
-242.3 pips

 

[Depth Trade]

Have entered the following positions.

Aud/Usd: short .9271 5

Eur/Usd: short 1.3380 8

Usd/Chf: short 1.0730 4

Usd/Jpy: short 94.02 3

Eur/Gbp: short .8699 8

Still holding previous positions. Waiting for the following economic data at 14:15 NY Time: 4/28 14:15 US April Fed Rate Decision

Aud/Usd: +40 pips

Eur/Usd: +235 pips

Usd/Chf: +7 pips

Usd/Jpy: +169 pips

Eur/Gbp: +28 pips

Open positions
:clover:+479 pips


Classic Fx
start date (10/04/10)
Closed Balance
-242.3 pips


S&P cuts Greek debt to junk, downgrades Portugal

By Lefteris Papadimas and Dave Graham Lefteris Papadimas And Dave Graham – Tue Apr 27, 7:08 pm ET
ATHENS/BERLIN (Reuters) – Rating agency Standard and Poor's slashed Greek debt to junk status on Tuesday and also downgraded Portugal, as investors worried political pressures could block a multi-billion euro bailout of Greece.

Markets in Europe and the United States tumbled in reaction to signs that the Greek debt crisis was spreading to other highly indebted states on the periphery of the euro zone.

"It's contagion from the Greece crisis which has spiraled out of control," said William Sullivan at JVB Financial Group in Florida.

"It's like coconuts falling from the tree. There's a flight from sovereign debt issuers that have suspect national finances."

Sullivan said there was "outright panic" among investors who feared they would lose some of their principal if Greece restructured or defaulted on its 300 billion euro debt.

Greece has entered "a death spiral of government insolvency," Thomas Mayer, chief economist at Deutsche Bank, Germany's largest bank, said late on Monday in remarks withheld for release on Tuesday.

S&P cut its rating of Greek government debt by a full three notches to BB-plus, the first level of speculative status. The outlook is negative, meaning the agency could downgrade Greece again.

The downgrade put Greece on par with Romania and below Kazakhstan, Hungary and Iceland, the last of which rocked global markets when its main banks imploded at the start of the global financial crisis.

S&P cited the "political, economic, and budgetary challenges that the Greek government faces in its efforts to put the public debt burden onto a sustained downward trajectory."

For Portugal, S&P cut its rating by two notches to A-minus, saying Portuguese finances were structurally weak and the economy uncompetitive. Lisbon needs to do more than it currently plans to stabilize its finances, S&P said.

BAILOUT

Bailout talks between Greece, European authorities and the International Monetary Fund began in Athens last week, after Greece asked for as much as 45 billion euros in emergency loans from euro zone governments and the IMF this year.

Greek and European Commission officials have said the first tranche of aid will be paid before May 19, when Athens will need to refinance a maturing 8.5 billion euro bond.

But the markets are not convinced that governments have the political will to reach and sustain an agreement on the aid, especially in Germany, where public opinion is strongly against helping Greece.

The backing of Germany, Europe's biggest economy, is vital for any rescue but Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats risk defeat in a regional election on May 9 that would end her coalition's majority in the upper house of parliament.

To rally support among their taxpayers for a bailout, European governments want Greece to commit to tough austerity steps. But they cannot push too hard since that might hurt Greek public support for austerity, and by deepening Greece's recession, make deficit-cutting targets impossible to hit.

Juergen Koppelin, a budget official in the junior party of the German ruling coalition, the Free Democrats, said on Tuesday Germany's contribution to the rescue was not guaranteed.

And although the European Commission insists the bailout of Greece will not involve restructuring its debt, the Christian Democrats' budget spokesman said on Tuesday that his party would raise the idea of forcing investors to take a discount on Greek debt with the IMF and the European Central Bank on Wednesday.

Norbert Barthle said banks holding Greek debt should have to contribute to a rescue as they had profited from the crisis and "speculated against Greece in part.

In Athens on Tuesday, about 1,500 private and public sector workers, students and anarchists marched to parliament chanting "Out with the IMF and the European Union" in protest against austerity measures that could accompany the bailout.

Most Greeks disapprove of their government's decision to ask for financial aid, according to the first opinion poll since the request was made. Of 1,400 people surveyed, 60.9 percent said they were against the decision, said the poll, released on Tuesday by Greek Public Opinion for Mega TV.

MARKETS

U.S. crude oil futures sank more than 2 percent in response to the downgrades of Greece and Portugal, while the euro fell back near a one-year low against the U.S. dollar. Britain's FTSE 100 share index dropped 2.6 percent.

Greek bank stocks plunged more than 9 percent. The Greek bank index has lost nearly 60 percent since the debt crisis began to develop in mid-October, destroying about 28 billion euros in market capitalization.

As other banks have cut funding lines to them during the crisis, Greek banks have become heavily dependent on funding which they obtain from the ECB in money market operations.

ECB rules mean that after S&P's action, any large downgrade by another agency, Moody's Investors Service, could worsen Greek banks' funding problems.

If Moody's, which now rates Greece A3, also cuts Greece to BBB territory, banks will receive 5 percent less cash when they use Greek bonds as collateral in money market operations.

Greece's two-year government bond yield soared to nearly 15 percent on Tuesday, meaning any fresh borrowing from the debt market would be ruinously expensive for Greece. Trade in its bonds has almost halted as bid/ask spreads have ballooned to prohibitive levels.

The two-year Portuguese government bond yield jumped to 5.23 percent from 4.16 percent, as the cost of insuring its debt against default rose to a record high.

Even if Greece obtains international aid this year and over the next few years, many analysts think its uncompetitive economy may continue to struggle in the euro zone's monetary straightjacket, ultimately forcing a debt default.

A Reuters poll of about 50 economists last week found them estimating a 23 percent chance of a Greek default within five years.

S&P on Tuesday assigned a recovery rating of "4" to Greece's debt, indicating it expected an "average" recovery of between 30 and 50 percent for holders in the event of a Greek restructuring or default.

(Additional reporting by Athens bureau, London markets team, and Dave Graham in Berlin; Writing by Tim Heritage and Andrew Torchia; Editing by John Stonestreet, Ron Askew)

 

[Depth Trade]

Have entered the following positions.

Aud/Usd: short .9271 5

Eur/Usd: short 1.3380 8

Usd/Chf: short 1.0730 4

Usd/Jpy: short 94.02 3

Eur/Gbp: short .8699 8

Still holding previous positions.


Aud/usd: -9 pips

Eur/usd: +138 pips

Usd/chf: +100 pips

Usd/jpy: +8 pips

Eur/gbp: +54 pips

Open positions
+291 pips

Classic Fx
start date (10/04/10)
Closed Balance
-242 pips

Combined balance +49 pips




Roubini on Greece

Apr 27, 2010 22:14 EDT
greece
Nouriel Roubini, it can be safely said, gives good panel — especially when the subject is the eurozone and the possible disintegration thereof. He’s been bearish on the PIGS in general and on Italy in particular for many years now, but I don’t think it comes as much surprise to him or to anybody else that Greece is the first country really in the firing line.

One of the most interesting things about the status quo post-downgrade is that no one seems to have a clue what the base-case scenario is. Are the markets still expecting Greece to get bailed out, but adding on an ever-increasing yield premium to account for the possibility that it won’t be? Are they, like panelist James McCaughan, expecting an orderly debt restructuring later this year, with an effective haircut in the 20-40% range? They certainly don’t seem to be expecting anything worse than that — Greece’s bonds are trading at high yields, yes, but not at distressed levels, and there’s still room to lose a lot of money on those 2-year bonds if they end up defaulting.

My feeling is that the base case is one of muddling through for the next 2-3 years, with Greece scrounging up enough money from the EU and IMF to avoid a default, and Europe’s banks meanwhile staying profitable enough thanks to the ECB’s monetary policy that they build up their solvency for when the inevitable default does occur a few years down the road.

But it’s not clear that the markets are going to let that happen. It’s all well and good for the Germans and others to cover the Greek fiscal deficit for the next three years, and even to insist on tough fiscal adjustment at the same time. But if Greek yields stay anywhere near their current levels, there’s a good risk that would be politically unacceptable in both Germany and Greece. Sweden’s Bo Lundgren was also on the panel, and he helped explain how the Swedish population has the crucial and decidedly un-Greek ability to unite behind unpopular yet necessary policies once their political leaders have set a certain course. Greece, which is already seeing riots at any hint of fiscal austerity, just isn’t the kind of nation which is likely to decide that five years of wage cuts in a painful and deflationary recession is a price worth paying to stay current on the national debt.

Meanwhile, Tony Barber has already come to the conclusion that as far as Greece is concerned, “the political conditions for extra financial help from Germany just do not exist”.

Nouriel, of course, takes that kind of thinking to its logical conclusion, and kicked off the panel by announcing that it was just in time: “in a few days,” he said, “there might not be a eurozone for us to discuss.” There’s no way that Greece can implement the 10% spending cut it needs to do in order to stop its debt spiralling out of control at current interest rates — and even if it did, the economic effects would be disastrous.

Nouriel’s base case, then, is Argentina 2001: after all, Greece has a much higher debt-to-GDP ratio, much higher deficit-to-GDP ratio, and much higher current-account deficit than Argentina had back then. And if that’s the base case, there’s no way that Greek debt should be trading anywhere near its current levels.

Of course, this being Nouriel, it goes downhill from there: if Greece is worse than Argentina, he says, then Spain is worse than Greece. Its housing bubble and bust has left the banking sector much weaker than Greece’s; its unemployment situation, especially with the under-30 crowd, is much worse than Greece’s; and the cost of any Spain bailout would be so much more enormous than the cost of a Greek bailout as to be almost unthinkable. The only thing that Spain has going for it is that it isn’t quite at the edge of the abyss yet; if it gets its political act together and implements tough fiscal and structural reforms now, it can save itself. But clearly no one saw that happening, given Spain’s political history over the past 20 years.

There’s no good news here. The least bad course of action for Greece, in Nouriel’s eyes, is some kind of coercive yet orderly debt restructuring, which keeps the face value of the debt unchanged but which reduces coupons and pushes out maturities. And an exit from the euro. Alternatively, the ECB steps in and cuts interest rates so low that the euro gets pushed down towards parity with the dollar, which would accomplish something similar without nearly as much pain.

One member of the audience, though, had a really good question: what happens to the European system of sovereign guarantees of interbank lending? When those sovereign guarantees aren’t worth much any more, Euribor is likely to spike, since suddenly there’s a lot more credit risk involved in interbank lending. And there are hundreds of trillions of euros of debt contracts linked to Euribor, which could suddenly get very expensive and take control of short-term interest rates out of the hands of the ECB.

And in any case it’s worth remembering that even though Greece’s debts are small in relation to Spain’s, they’re still large in relation to, say, those of Lehman Brothers. And given that there is no formal mechanism for leaving the euro (or for defaulting on sovereign euro-denominated debt, for that matter), there will almost certainly be a range of unexpected and chaotic events somewhere down the line. That’s why I feel that although Greek bond yields are certainly going to be volatile for a while, we’re going to see higher highs and higher lows — there’s pretty much nothing, at this point, which could reassure the markets and turn Greece back into an interest-rate play rather than a credit play.

Even a massive IMF bailout, which is probably the best-case scenario for Greece right now, wouldn’t suffice to bring yields back down to their pre-crisis levels. As Nouriel pointed out, the IMF, as a preferred creditor, would make sure it was repaid, in the event of default, long before bondholders. And as a result, even if the probability of default dropped, the recovery value on Greek bonds in the event of default would drop as well. And so yields wouldn’t come down as much as you might think.

I covered emerging market sovereign bonds for many years, but I’ve never seen anything like this: a country trading at levels where the bear case is terrifying, the bull case is very hard to articulate, and everybody is talking about a possible default even when the country has an investment-grade credit rating from two agencies and is only one notch below investment grade at the third. Maybe the only thing which really explains what’s going on is that both yields and ratings are sticky. Which would imply that Greece has a long way to deteriorate from here.

 

[Depth Trade]

Have entered the following positions.

Aud/Usd: short .9271 5

Eur/Usd: short 1.3380 8

Usd/Chf: short 1.0730 4

Usd/Jpy: short 94.02 3

Eur/Gbp: short .8699 8

Have exited all positions.

Out
Aud/Usd: +23.4

Eur/Usd: +83.3

Usd/Chf: +43.2

Usd/Jpy: -23.8

Eur/Gbp: -6.1

+126.1


Classic Fx
start date (10/04/10)
Closed Balance
-122.3 pips



Costly IRS Mandate Slipped into Health Bill

Written by Chris Edwards
Wednesday, 28 April 2010 09:52

Most people know about the individual mandate in the new health care bill, but the bill contained another mandate that could be far more costly.

A few wording changes to the tax code's section 6041 regarding 1099 reporting were slipped into the 2000-page health legislation. The changes will force millions of businesses to issue hundreds of millions, perhaps billions, of additional IRS Form 1099s every year. It appears to be a costly, anti-business nightmare.


Under current law, businesses are required to issue 1099s in a limited set of situations, such as when paying outside consultants. The health care bill includes a vast expansion in this information reporting requirement in an attempt to raise revenue for an increasingly rapacious Congress.

In a recent summary, tax information firm RIA notes the types of transactions covered by the new 1099 rules:

The 2010 Health Care Act adds "amounts in consideration for property" (Code Sec. 6041(a) as amended by 2010 Health Care Act §9006(b)(1)) and "gross proceeds" (Code Sec. 6041(a) as amended by 2010 Health Care Act §9006(b)(2)) to the pre-2010 Health Care Act categories of payments for which an information return to IRS will be required if the $600 aggregate payment threshold is met in a tax year for any one payee. Thus, Congress says that for payments made after 2011, the term "payments" includes gross proceeds paid in consideration for property or services.

Basically, businesses will have to issue 1099s whenever they do more than $600 of business with another entity in a year. For the $14 trillion U.S. economy, that's a hell of a lot of 1099s. When a business buys a $1,000 used car, it will have to gather information on the seller and mail 1099s to the seller and the IRS. When a small shop owner pays her rent, she will have to send a 1099 to the landlord and IRS. Recipients of the vast flood of these forms will have to match them with existing accounting records. There will be huge numbers of errors and mismatches, which will probably generate many costly battles with the IRS.

Tax CPA Chris Hesse of LeMaster Daniels tells me:

Under the health legislation, the IRS could be receiving billions of more documents. Under current law, businesses send Forms 1099 for payments of rent, interest, dividends, and non-employee services when such payments are to entities other than corporations. Under the new law, businesses will be required to send a 1099 to other businesses for virtually all purchases. And for the first time, 1099s are to be sent to corporations. This is a huge new imposition on American business, costing the private economy much more than any additional tax that the IRS might collect as a result.

There appears to have been little discussion before this damaging mandate was slipped into the health bill and rammed through Congress, but a few business groups did raise concerns. Here's what the Air Conditioner Contractors of America said:

The House bill would extend the Form 1099 filing requirement to ALL vendors (including corporate) to which they pay more than $600 annually for services or property. Consider all the payments a small business makes in the course of business, paying for things such as computers, software, office supplies, and fuel to services, including janitorial services, coffee services, and package delivery services.

In order to file all these 1099s, you'll need to collect the necessary information from all your service providers. In order to comply with the law, you would have to get a Taxpayer Information Number or TIN from the business. If the vendor does not supply you with a TIN, you are obligated to withhold on your payments.

Private transactions are the core of a market economy, and the source of America's growth and prosperity. Now the federal government is imposing a vast new web of red tape on perhaps billions of these growth-generating private exchanges.

For what purpose? So the spendthrift Congress can shake a few extra bucks out of private industry? The business sector is the generator of America's high living standards, but most federal legislators just see it as a kitty to be raided or a cow to be milked dry.

I'm stunned that there wasn't a broader debate before such a costly mandate was enacted. If it goes into effect, it will waste vast quantities of human effort in filling out forms, reworking computer systems, collecting and organizing data, and fighting the IRS. The struggling American economy can't afford anymore suffocating tax regulations. This mandate is a giant deadweight loss. It should be repealed.