All righty, we are doing sweet. Our current positions are deep in the money and the balance has been flirting with BreakEven. Have added the following positions.
Aud/usd: long .9596 5
Gbp/usd: long 1.9801 7
Xag/usd: long 18.27
Usd/cad: short .9893 9
Usd/chf: short 1.0235 7
Usd/jpy: short 103.33 7
Depth Trade Results
Start Date Jan-14
Deposit Amount 1000.00
Week Start Date 17-May-08
Week End Date 23-May-08
# Weeks 19
USD Start of Week 888.39
USD Ending Amount 982.82
P/L for Week $ 94.43
P/L % for Week 10.63%
P/L since Start $ -17.18
P/L % since Start -1.72%
Expected ROI yearly -4.70%
I have just realized something that I was having trouble calculating. My silver positions are way too big. My ticket orders are set for a percentage of available capital, but when I position the same amount in silver, the price moves way more than currency. What would have been a 1% loss in cash, can be -10% in metals for any given period. My conclusion is, there is less actual metal out there than fiat currencies. The price is then volatile.
..So when positioning I'll have to reduce my position size to 1/10th of set ticket percentage, which then neutralizes my leverage; but if I'm not going to be using/needing leverage, I might as well just be trading precious metals as an investor.
Trading Forex with a leveraged account is a complete trap. You need to think about Murphy's law on this theory. When your taking a position on an un leveraged account one could say there probability is 50/50. When one is trading with a 50/1 lev. account you could say there Prob. for a loss is x50. This is because your always going to be looking for the minimal move that fits into your Win profile, but if you make a error, your loss parameters are x50.
You may disprove this idea numerically, but you have to look at it from murphy's law it makes total sense.
Even if one learns how to make huge amounts of money, you mess up on a huge account or you try something new thinking you can handle anything, have seen every possible outcome. *BAM you lose money. Yeah, you can set your stops at 1%, but you need to understand that if you had taken that same loss un-leveraged, there would not have been a loss, there wouldn't of been a trade.:idea:
This all may sound simple, but the problem is everyone is trying to out smart the system numerically, when there over looking the most obvious problem. That is, no matter how good you are, your going to try something new and fail. The only way to guarantee I don't fall into this trap, is to not trade Leveraged accounts ever.
I need to take what I know and apply it to buying metals for investors.
On that note I'll continue positioning the currency untill it breaks even.
Have entered the following positions.
Gbp/usd: long 1.9828
Xag/usd: long 16.952
Usd/mxn: limit short 10.3255