Out of hours pricing
at the moment there are no plans to add guaranteed stops to markets and whilst I accept that the US markets do trade in the small hours you must remember that the closest you would be allowed to place the guaranteed stop loss would be something like 50 points in the dow and 70 pips in the S&P. for the very, very few times that you would be saved a few pips the cost would outweigh this. We are planning extended trading on many of our markets (as per the FX 24hr markets) and will probably add a dow and S&P service to this, this will negate the requirement for guaranteed stops in these markets.
Simon
I think most of us here are of the opinion that while guaranteed stops are a bit of a gimmick, and only useful in extreme circumstances, I can see why some clients would find it beneficial. Personally I would not pay for a guaranteed stop for indices or FX, however I can see why it would be a useful feature for some commodities and certainly for equities. (NRK anyone?) I think that the minimum distance specified by most of the SB companies makes a GSO pretty useless anyway - I'm sure if CS ever did do guaranteed stops they would be much tighter than other firms!
Is it the case (and I may have misunderstood the FSA rules on this) that a spreadbetting company who offers GSO's must treat this as a form of insurance and comply with additional bookkeeping requirements? If so, I think it makes it easier to understand why it isn't attractive for you to offer a service which few (if any) clients would truly benefit from when it distracts you and your team from your core services.
Regarding out of hours markets, I'd be quite interested to know how SB firms come up with a price for an instrument which isn't trading. My presumption would be that you take another instrument which is trading at this time and displays high correlation to the out of hours market, and put it through an algorithm which gives you an approximation of the price. However, I'd be interested to know more about how this would be done.
For example, I'd assume the FTSE out of hours is priced on the Dow/S&P. However, if you were to offer this market 24 hours, what would happen if there was news or data which only affected a FTSE 100 constituent (or sector) and not America? Would the FTSE price algorithm take into account the movements of many instruments, including those that trade in the Asian session?
Further, how accurate are these models? I might be a little naive here, but if it were possible to construct a model to estimate with reasonable accuracy the fair value of instrument X given the prices of instrument Y and Z, would this not open up interesting possibilities for taking proprietary positions based on these relationships?
An example of this which comes to mind is in commodities, where it is possible to trade a position on one commodity on the basis that it has fallen out of sync with another correlated instrument (think calendar spreads on soy beans,oil, and meal, or the relationship between corn and livestock, or certain metals and energies). Wouldn't having a model to accurately determine stock index values out of hours allow similar trades during market hours?
Finally, how does a SB firm go about finding these models? Are they developed in house by your quants or dealers, or do you hire consultants? If the models are ever wrong, does this directly cost CS? For example if you were quoting the FTSE at 6500/1 and it opened at 6563/4 and your clients had been net long pre market, would this come out of your pocket, or can you hedge? If you can hedge, doesn't that expose you to additional market risk relying on the correlation to hold firm enough to limit your exposure in the underlying. Also, what protection do you (and clients) have from pricing errors if the underlying is closed. As in the above example, if your price for the FTSE premarket was quite far away from the opening price, and clients had been generally bullish before the open, would you allow those trades? Conversely, if your clients lost money because your estimate of the FTSE was quite far away from where it opened, would you break the trades? In the case of a dispute, what do you use as a reference price given that the underlying is closed? Is it simply your risk and the clients risk to trade on "grey market" prices? Would you for example amend the entry price of the premarket trades to the first print from Z at LIFFE?
Sorry if these are a lot of questions, but I think people would be interested to know some of the answers, and you have done a good job of shining a light on the mysterious internals of SB firms in the past. Naturally I'd understand if you can't answer these questions for business reasons, or don't have the time to respond in detail.