Can't Pull the Trigger

Hiya Grey

Noise?? thats everything outside of the world of trading..

OIL PRICES, IRAQ, IRAN, PRICE OF GOLD, CNBC, NEWSPAPERS

thats noise...ignore it forget it because it can only screw with your head... :rolleyes:
 
chump said:
"Forget The Noise" ...maybe that really meant ...forget the noise if it does not need any planned action from you ?

No chump that's exactly what i meant...

it's totally meaningless bits and pieces of nonsencial information flow that does nothing for us scalpers...
 
chump said:
"OIL PRICES, IRAQ, IRAN, PRICE OF GOLD, CNBC, NEWSPAPERS"..agree

What I enjoy is the punditry. Stock prices fell today because oil prices were up. Stock prices rose today because oil prices were up. Stocks fell today due to concern over interest rates. Stocks rose today due to concern over interest rates. Blah Blah Blah

I'd love to hear somebody say stocks rose today; nobody knows why; it happens; don't worry about it; have a nice evening.
 
"nobody knows why"...LOL that's never going to happen ...generally people abhor uncertainty ..often they'd rather hear anything other than something that leaves them having to live with uncertainty which is what "nobody knows why"...entails..
maybe one day we'll get a really honest explanation..prices moved today because someone was smart enough to make some money from a move.

Further example....
Doctor to patient..."you have nothing to worry about" ...removes uncertainty as long as the patient does not ask "yes ,but doctor exactly why do you say that" just for the doctor to reply "well come back next week and we'll do a further exam so I can tell you why " ...that one really is a true one LOL
 
All this talk about noise is another way of saying trade what you see not what you think.
 
dbphoenix said:
What I enjoy is the punditry. Stock prices fell today because oil prices were up. Stock prices rose today because oil prices were up. Stocks fell today due to concern over interest rates. Stocks rose today due to concern over interest rates. Blah Blah Blah

I'd love to hear somebody say stocks rose today; nobody knows why; it happens; don't worry about it; have a nice evening.

LOL

yes thats the ticket...who really cares why anything is up or down. if we can determine the "trend of the day" which in this nutty market is more like a rollarcoster ride these days, then you don't need stimulus...

we trade the trend watching the futures and our list of stocks we watch...

so we could care less about the "noise"
 
In my humble opinion...you all seemed to have gone off on one.

The last one and half pages have shot off on a tangent and isnt helping the originator to pull his trigger,

There`s so much goblededook attached to shares, it seems like witchcraft to me, pit noises,pivot points,head and shoulders, cup and handle, double bottom, wedge, flag...oops i`m losing the will to live
 
Jerry ,

if you are a technical analyst of any time frame by definition you believe all NEWS are in the current price. ( company news , earning news, oil price fluctuation, IRAN,IRAQ) . There fore all trades going through carry some kind of information other wise it would not go through .. ( Traders don't close their eyes and push the button , they trade because they know or think they know some thing )

NOISE is not NEWS and never has been .

DUNGAN ,

This procedure you should give you an idea about your potion sizing and hedging procedure which in turn should help you out in pulling that trigger.

lets say your capital is $ 50 000
lets also say you always use Fixed % technique. ( 1% , 2% and so on )

In this case your stop be $500 if you risk 1%. THIS IS YOUR MONEY MANAGEMENT STOP

lets go to volatility of the instrument you are trading

CHART 1 min of STOCK A
PLOT the ATR for STOCK A ( most charting platform give ATR reading as standard)
Lets say the ATR for 1 min STOCK A is $2. This means STOCK A HAS HAD A VOLATILITY OF $ 2 last past 14 min ..

Now Divide your stop loss by ATR . This should give you the number of the correct position size for your trade.

in this case the number of stocks for 1 min time frame of STOCK A = $500/$2 = 250

( DO A HOME WORK FOR YOUR SELF NOW , WHAT WOULD BE YOUR POSITION SIZE IF YOU CHOSE 3 MIN TIME FRAME )



Repeat process above for STOCK B . Another stock with totally different ATR . lets say this time your position size is 800



.

lets assume you have a good back tested strategy and your strategy tells you to LONG STOCK A SHORT STOCK B

THEN YOU LONG 250 STOCK A against SHORT 800 STOCK B . This way you are fully hedged.
The above procedure is a very simplified version of hedging process one should use specially if scalping as scalping needs much larger exposure and one does not want a market spike to ruin the trade.

This simple procedure should help you to correct your position sizing relative to your total capital and the volatility of the instrument you are trading so you wont be over exposed to the instruments's volatility


PS:-- IF YOU USE ABOVE PROCEDURE THEN AS YOUR CAPITAL GROWS YOUR EXPOSURE INCREASES AND VICSE VERSA.. THIS IS THE BEST WAY OF UTILISING YOUR CAPITAL .. ( ANTIMARTINGLE TECHNIQUE )

ALSO ,, WHEN YOU HAVE A FULLY HEDGED POSITION IT STILL DOES NOT MEAN YOU ARE GOING TO WIN THE TRADE. IT ONLY MEANS YOU ARE HEDGED AGAINST MARKET SPIKE. IN ANOTHER WORD IF MR BIN LADEND WAS FOUND AND YOU WAS HEDGED THEN THE LOSS FROM STOCK B WILL BE COMPENSATED BY GAIN IN STOCK A .

THIS POST WAS INTENDED FOR BEGINNERS . THERE ARE MUCH NEATER POSITION SIZING TECHNIQUE WHICH OPTIMISES THE NET PROFIT WHILE CONSTRAINING THE DRAW DAWN ALL IN REAL TIME BY ADDING OR DUMPING POSITIONS AS ATR FLUCTUATES .


GREY1

GREY1
 
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The thread title is: 'Can't Pull the Trigger'
located in the Psychology forum, it's not about trading —

". . . a recent string of consecutive losses which shook my confidence and now
I just don't want to get hurt again." my emphasis

"I just don't want to get hurt again" pain and fear of pain ?

Currently reading and on p145 of 'Stormy Weather' 1995 Carl Hiaasen, Warner Books:
"He was a slave to his subconscious. He had come to understand that the anticipation of pain was more immobilizing than the pain itself — though the knowledge didn't help him."

"How do you get over this?"

You need a copy of the 35min mp3 file: 'Eliminating Fears and Phobias'.

This is an NLP technique — Neurolinguistic Programming and may at least provide you with some clarity if not cure, tho for many, cure it does.

First listen to it and make notes so you know what it's about.
Then alone and undisturbed, do the exercises.
 
dugan51 said:
I'm sure most everybody has had times where they found it hard to 'pull the trigger'. But I am currently at the point where I find it almost impossible. I watch many of my desired setups take place and come out favorably, yet I can't take action. If I do get in, I can't relax and bail at the first sign of trouble.

I've been doing light trading for about 2 and half years and admit to doing some pretty dumb stuff in the beginning, but now I do know how to protect myself and when I paper trade I almost always do well. I did have a recent string of consecutive losses which shook my confidence and now I just don't want to get hurt again. How do you get over this?

My buddy that I trade with has all but given up on me. We basically follow the same plan. I even watch him do well and still I can't get in the game. What can I do to unload this mental baggage?

I want to perform mechanically and un-emotionally but can't get there.

Thanks.

Re: I want to perform mechanically and un-emotionally but can't get there.
Is your strategy mechanical and unemotional ? If your strategy requires discretion, then the above cannot be done. If you have pre-defined rules, then you can.

Re: We basically follow the same plan.
Are you sure ? What are the differences, if any ?
Do you have pre-defined stop-losses ? If so, the success/win is pre-defined, and your trades should match your buddys, unless your rules allow changing of stops.
How often does your buddy change the stops ?

Do you have confidence in your plan ?

Re: I did have a recent string of consecutive losses which shook my confidence.
Did your buddy also have a string a consecutive losses, since you follow the same plan ? If so, you must try to take heart from the fact that he is still trading, hopefully profitably.

Do you and your buddy sit close together when trading ? Do you trade a big enough time-frame to be able to relax between trades ? ( do you scalp, or trade more relaxed time-frames ? )
Reason for this: is it possible for your buddy to talk through his trade ?

If your buddy can describe what he is looking at, it may help you to understand what he is seeing, and how he is interpreting the chart. You can then follow his reasoning on your own chart. Make notes to see if he keep referring to certain bar-patterns, or trend-lines, because in reality we subconsciously trade things that we haven’t written down, because we cant consciously describe them. This may become apparent if your buddy conducts a commentary.
(Your problem may be trying to make the perfect trade, and you look at the chart in a disjointed and unconnected fashion, checking different time-frames to confirm the trade, only to get contradictory signals, giving rise to stress.)
A commentray may help you to look at a chart in a co-ordinated manner.

As described before by another poster, put aside money for education. Don’t plan to make profit, just try to see how long you can last before it runs out. ( a sort of monetary “keepie-uppie“. How many trades before the account is halved ? )
Also take note of another posters view on volatility.
Do you have too much thinking-time between trades ? ( where you fret over the market moving )
If your time-frame is hourly, there is absolutely no reason to look at the screen for another 50 minutes or so. Read a book, do exercises.

Record you trades.
Then compare if the last 20 trades are better than the previous 20 trades.
It is a long-haul business.
Hope this helps.
And make sure you post back here weekly to let us know. It can act as a useful diary.
You can be assured of support.
 
Grey1 said:
Jerry ,

if you are a technical analyst of any time frame by definition you believe all NEWS are in the current price. ( company news , earning news, oil price fluctuation, IRAN,IRAQ) . There fore all trades going through carry some kind of information other wise it would not go through .. ( Traders don't close their eyes and push the button , they trade because they know or think they know some thing )

NOISE is not NEWS and never has been .

DUNGAN ,

This procedure you should give you an idea about your potion sizing and hedging procedure which in turn should help you out in pulling that trigger.

lets say your capital is $ 50 000
lets also say you always use Fixed % technique. ( 1% , 2% and so on )

In this case your stop be $500 if you risk 1%. THIS IS YOUR MONEY MANAGEMENT STOP

lets go to volatility of the instrument you are trading

CHART 1 min of STOCK A
PLOT the ATR for STOCK A ( most charting platform give ATR reading as standard)
Lets say the ATR for 1 min STOCK A is $2. This means STOCK A HAS HAD A VOLATILITY OF $ 2 last past 14 min ..

Now Divide your stop loss by ATR . This should give you the number of the correct position size for your trade.

in this case the number of stocks for 1 min time frame of STOCK A = $500/$2 = 250

( DO A HOME WORK FOR YOUR SELF NOW , WHAT WOULD BE YOUR POSITION SIZE IF YOU CHOSE 3 MIN TIME FRAME )



Repeat process above for STOCK B . Another stock with totally different ATR . lets say this time your position size is 800



.

lets assume you have a good back tested strategy and your strategy tells you to LONG STOCK A SHORT STOCK B

THEN YOU LONG 250 STOCK A against SHORT 800 STOCK B . This way you are fully hedged.
The above procedure is a very simplified version of hedging process one should use specially if scalping as scalping needs much larger exposure and one does not want a market spike to ruin the trade.

This simple procedure should help you to correct your position sizing relative to your total capital and the volatility of the instrument you are trading so you wont be over exposed to the instruments's volatility


PS:-- IF YOU USE ABOVE PROCEDURE THEN AS YOUR CAPITAL GROWS YOUR EXPOSURE INCREASES AND VICSE VERSA.. THIS IS THE BEST WAY OF UTILISING YOUR CAPITAL .. ( ANTIMARTINGLE TECHNIQUE )

ALSO ,, WHEN YOU HAVE A FULLY HEDGED POSITION IT STILL DOES NOT MEAN YOU ARE GOING TO WIN THE TRADE. IT ONLY MEANS YOU ARE HEDGED AGAINST MARKET SPIKE. IN ANOTHER WORD IF MR BIN LADEND WAS FOUND AND YOU WAS HEDGED THEN THE LOSS FROM STOCK B WILL BE COMPENSATED BY GAIN IN STOCK A .

THIS POST WAS INTENDED FOR BEGINNERS . THERE ARE MUCH NEATER POSITION SIZING TECHNIQUE WHICH OPTIMISES THE NET PROFIT WHILE CONSTRAINING THE DRAW DAWN ALL IN REAL TIME BY ADDING OR DUMPING POSITIONS AS ATR FLUCTUATES .


GREY1

GREY1

Morning Grey

i think you miss understood the term "noise", this is something other than company specific news, or upgrades or downgrades, earnings reports etc.

My noise is outside of the stocks we trade.

Earnings season is coming soon, we trade a lot of post market action for years now knowing full well most stocks get hit when they report good or bad earnings, so we do a lot of countertrend trades long.

Tons of ways to make a buck trading earnings, but like i said my "noise" is out side that area.
 
Trdr,

Thanks for an excellent, on topic post.
re: "You need a copy of the 35min mp3 file: 'Eliminating Fears and Phobias'. "
Would you please post a link / source to this file for all? Thanks.

re: the original post and "I did have a recent string of consecutive losses which shook my confidence and now I just don't want to get hurt again. How do you get over this? " , etc.
Among other things amiss here – we may have been given an inaccurate representation of the issues. Instead of ‘Can’t pull the trigger’ a better phrase in the title might have been ‘Actually can only pull the trigger on losing trades’. :confused: – which is a related, but even deeper murkier, issue. These two constellations are usually not differentiated - but should be. The assumption is that fixing one actually fixes the other. I don't think so, fixing one will only help in fixing the other. Anyway, at this point, we really need to hear back from Dugan.

all the best,

zdo
 
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This all reminds me of when I learned to ski.

It's all technique really ,but fear inhibits technique so you have to find a way to relax by doing it incremently (unless you are one of those rare fearless people in which case stick to skiing and leave trading alone).

All I can say to you and it may be too general to help you is this....ask your self why you wish to trade and what is it you expect to get out of it..get specific ..very specific..if you can't then just stop ,because you are going to lack the basic motivator to succeed in this.

Assuming you were able to come up with something meaningful to you then use this to push yourself forward bit by little bit staying within your comfort zone so that you don't feel like the world is about to drop on you.

Just like skiing you need to start off on the nursery slope ....paper trading...don't overdo this part ,because it is not the answer to your problem , it's just a small step. Move on to a slightly steeper slope by finding something boringly non volatile to trade with.Keep your money on the table sufficiently small that you feel comfortable and just concentrate on practicing using your system.
Making money should not be in your thoughts as such , just concentrate on the process , with low volatility and small positions you can't do yourself any lasting damage (the snow will be soft).
This is the approach , just work your way up staying within your comfort zone at all times and learning the process. Part of this process is you are going to fall a few times (lose money) , but if you stay in your comfort zone you should be ok. If you can't stand the thought of falling then think about giving up , or again ask yourself what is it you want , is it worth a few falls.

Telling you to just do it (pull the trigger) is no good whatsoever as it does not address your problem and by suggesting you do this without moving your comfort zone is just a recipe for
disaster.
Good Luck
 
chump said:
This all reminds me of when I learned to ski.

It's all technique really ,but fear inhibits technique so you have to find a way to relax by doing it incremently (unless you are one of those rare fearless people in which case stick to skiing and leave trading alone).

All I can say to you and it may be too general to help you is this....ask your self why you wish to trade and what is it you expect to get out of it..get specific ..very specific..if you can't then just stop ,because you are going to lack the basic motivator to succeed in this.

Assuming you were able to come up with something meaningful to you then use this to push yourself forward bit by little bit staying within your comfort zone so that you don't feel like the world is about to drop on you.

Just like skiing you need to start off on the nursery slope ....paper trading...don't overdo this part ,because it is not the answer to your problem , it's just a small step. Move on to a slightly steeper slope by finding something boringly non volatile to trade with.Keep your money on the table sufficiently small that you feel comfortable and just concentrate on practicing using your system.
Making money should not be in your thoughts as such , just concentrate on the process , with low volatility and small positions you can't do yourself any lasting damage (the snow will be soft).
This is the approach , just work your way up staying within your comfort zone at all times and learning the process. Part of this process is you are going to fall a few times (lose money) , but if you stay in your comfort zone you should be ok. If you can't stand the thought of falling then think about giving up , or again ask yourself what is it you want , is it worth a few falls.

Telling you to just do it (pull the trigger) is no good whatsoever as it does not address your problem and by suggesting you do this without moving your comfort zone is just a recipe for
disaster.
Good Luck

Excellent post, Chump. Unfortunately, I'm not allowed to report it as a good post. But perhaps others will.

Db
 
Where is Dugan? He's been scared off with all these different 'fixes'. Maybe he's OK now. Let us know how you did it. Remember, keep it simple. ;)
 
dbphoenix said:
What I enjoy is the punditry. Stock prices fell today because oil prices were up. Stock prices rose today because oil prices were up. Stocks fell today due to concern over interest rates. Stocks rose today due to concern over interest rates. Blah Blah Blah

I'd love to hear somebody say stocks rose today; nobody knows why; it happens; don't worry about it; have a nice evening.
It would be even better if someone got hold of a megaphone and shouted at the top of his voice:~

"Stock prices rose today, the reason for this is very nearly a mystery. Those who don't know but don't know they don't know, don't know. Those who know they don't know but are in a fog, are in a fog. Those who know they know are not telling. Just don't worry about it, have a nice evening."
 
Russian Roulette ?

SOCRATES said:
It would be even better if someone got hold of a megaphone and shouted at the top of his voice:~

"Stock prices rose today, the reason for this is very nearly a mystery. Those who don't know but don't know they don't know, don't know. Those who know they don't know but are in a fog, are in a fog. Those who know they know are not telling. Just don't worry about it, have a nice evening."

Yes - if you can enunciate logical reasons why they rose then you have a basis for a strategy, assuming the reasons why they rose continue to operate. If you cannot enunciate reasons for the rise then either
(a) you have not reached the point of establishing the logic i.e. the cause and effect behind the move
(b) it is not possible to establish a cause and effect
(c) you rely on some kind of innate tuition which defies logical reasoning
(d) you rely on chance and hope that you are right more times than not - possibly with the help of some logic to control stop loss. This I think is how the majority of us operate
(e) you realise that you have no chance of establishing why the price rose. You give up and find some other activity that you can control and predict

On another thread (or possibly even this one - I forget), I discussed a recent article inTraders Magazine which discussed the factors that one can control and those that one cannot control. In essence it stated that one cannot control the direction of price, but you can control risk. The idea is accept the probabilities inherent in the market and to concentrate on controlling risk to achieve profit.

So pull the trigger or not pull the trigger - what can you control or not control ? - Is this a case of Russian Roulette ?

What part does probability, risk, risk-aversion, innate understanding, guess-work and anything else you care to name play in this ?

Charlton
 
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