Best Thread Bund Bobl and Schatz Thread

[gooseman]

it's a vicious circle. liquidity thin so moves are huge which means people don't want to leave resting orders or expose themselves to big moves. ugly.

problem is that many people entered the market in the low vol period a few years ago and are struggling to adapt.

 

[clbfjc]

Surely if moves a larger and more voliatile entering a spread will lessen the risk of getting caught if the market suddenly jumps. As i am more of technical minded trader it may be worth looking at other products such as FX's, rather than spreads. Just means I would have to get used to using bigger stops and not have a way of "flipping" my trade if I have it wrong. By this I mean If I am long bobl, Short Schatz, reverse the positon by Buying Schatz then selling bunds, which will leave me short bunds long bobl.

 

[gooseman]

there is also the issue of the yield curve which has been very active recently. for example in June when the yield curve inverted the bund spiked and collapsed by 150 ticks as exotic desks ran for the hills and hedged their gamma. things like this can f*ck you as you just don't know why it's happening.

 

[arabianights]

but if you can see that it is happening you can join in, right?

 

[gooseman]

check out the charts for 6th June.....and then work out if you could have joined in without being carted out

 

[arabianights]

6 June looks nice enough to me

9th on the other hand...

 

[gooseman]

fecking bloomberg and it's american date system...! oops. 9th is what I meant. yield curve flipped and loads of structured desks acrambled to buy futures to hedge the gamma on the inversion notes. ouch.

 

[Mpoufos]

no nobody bids and offers the book anymore u are right just people taking out positions, which makes it a lot more subject to manipulation like flipping etc. thats why we keep on having these exaggerating moves in the bund all the time. big boys are pushing to the extreme and in constant search for stops. clb why dont u try just the outright, who spreads anymore?

 

[clbfjc]

Hi,

I used to trade outrights, mainly Bobl and Schatz . As stated above if you belive you are incorrect in the trade you can flip the spread. Granted this can also prove to be risky. I am really after a more risk averse stratgey and belive a number of people at the likes of Marex trade the spreads still. It may be better to use in an equities strategy nowadays. The spread can also mask your actual position if you are trading any sort of size.

 

[Mpoufos]

ok everyone lets just share views about the market direction etc anyone any ideas?

 

[arabianights]

down.

 

[Mpoufos]

nah dont agree. i see the 113.29 in bunds retested. nobody cares about inflation right now its all about growth

 

[arabianights]

I only think two minutes ahead

 

[RogueTrader888888]

i started trading bund outright just this week and finding it difficult as for example i went short 112.31 and targeted .26 and got stopped out at .34 before finally reaching .26. stuff like that. this is a big boys' market and these guys know that short term small guys like me cant take 2-3 ticks offside and they profit off of that.

I also try to average when onside and go with the trend but bund so stubborn and reversals so quick and even onside average turns into losing position quickly.

might try to put on TWENTY MAX good trades a day than my current EIGHTY mediocre ones like I do now.

also trying to scalp bid/offer for a quick tick but this proves difficult as reward is 1 tick and potential risk is 2-3. still trying to figure this ******* of a market out.

the only thing that seems to make sense to me are the levels which are .72 (briefly broke through) on the upside and .20 on the downside (looking very very strong).

thoughts appreciated.

 

[arabianights]

Eighty trades on the bund!?!

That's your problem right there. If you're paying retail comission rates especially.

 

[gooseman]

what's your normal clip size?

 

[RogueTrader888888]

180 round trips today on 2-3 lots. i scalp quite a bit (too much).

im in a shop paying relatively small commission so thats ok, my problem isnt that, its beating the bund!!!

 

[arabianights]

Don't scalp it then

P.S. Can't help but notice it's not been above where it was when I said it was going down I don't trade the bund though.

 

[gooseman]

that's a fair few RT's in a day. have you thought you might be overtrading?

I think there;s a general problem in the markets (short and long end) in that there is simply no sixe supporting the bids/offers. Because of the thin markets it is too easy to get stopped out....

scalping at the moment seems to me to be a bit of a picking pennies off train tracks sort of exercise....

 

[RogueTrader888888]

scalping at the moment seems to me to be a bit of a picking pennies off train tracks sort of exercise....

those pennies add up but i can quite easily scalp 3 ticks in and out bid offer getting early in the queue only to have one trade get away from me so quickly and i end up losing 4 ticks.

i am just a bit lost at the moment. the guy next to me wins 300-500 a day but only puts on a few few trades and the ones he puts on when it doesnt go his way he 75% scratches and 15% 1 tick loss and 10% 2 tick loss. but on the other hand he takes 1 tick win 70% of the time and 2 ticks 30% and doesnt ride his winning trades. but it seems to be working for him.

My strategy is that I am OK to be offside 1-2 ticks if charts, levels, indicators look ok (3 ticks gets quite uncomfortable) and i try to go for 5+ tick trades. But it seems to go and stop, then reverse, then again, then offside. The third time its 3 ticks offside and im exhausted and I get out and then it shoots up (or down) the way its supposed to go and blah.

Thoughts on different strategies appreciated.

Lets beat these investment banks at their own game!