I'm afraid that when we were 14 (I think) countries and Eastern Europe was not in the mix, the future did look better than it does today, with 28 countries. Each country has a veto and there is a big difference of interests. Getting anything done is a nightmare and the old Soviet block is frightened stiff of Russia.
The grass was greener on the other side, in those days.
Pat494
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Merkal, Hollande etc. don't want the EU Parliament to do anything major and undercut their authority. Just like the Duma in Russia - powerless.
Back in 1975 I admit I voted against. And why ? Because of the political implications. Just a trading bloc would have been OK.
This present situation has the danger of an aggressive Hitler type bursting through on a national stage and demanding to control all Europe. Trump may start the decline into dictatorship. China already has a sort of dictatorship.
Back in 1975 I admit I voted against. And why ? Because of the political implications. Just a trading bloc would have been OK.
This present situation has the danger of an aggressive Hitler type bursting through on a national stage and demanding to control all Europe. Trump may start the decline into dictatorship. China already has a sort of dictatorship.
Atilla
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Well before the UK joined the EU things weren't so rosy here at all. Pre-1973 not exactly the height of the Empire. Writing on the wall with declining industries; ship building, motor cars, motor bikes and other electronics or lack of, the impending doom of oil shock same year and oncoming stagnation. Railways long gone and dead whilst the French railway industries chug-along.
I can't imagine where UK would be without EU??? EU has worked wonders on Spain, Italy and Portugal and many other nations that have embraced it.
On a political level - the Tories have always been anti-EU and all about the commonwealth and the Empire but it's barking up the wrong tree as WWII literally bankrupted and sunk the UK. Best assets handed over to the yanks for their help.
We need to get over our selves about how great we were and that it could be the same again. The world has become global and a much smaller place.
The structure of warfare & empire has changed. It's about influence and cooperation now. Not about the punch but the weight.
The best and most dynamic economies are the diverse ones. Success of the nation depends on where people vote to with their feet. Borders are becoming just lines of no consequence.
Trade Agreements and groups flourishing all over the place. New industries and technologies and trading blocs are evolving.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4510792.stm
To step away is madness imo!
Don't be lead by self interested and small minded people with prejudice and bias.
Think big. We are always better off and stronger in union then isolated outside.
UK will be wedged out of big trade deals in a world of trade pacts. There will be all kinds of horse trading under tables. How much negotiation power will the UK be able to wield on her own?
Once legislation kicks in EU all that trade will go to member countries sooner or later. So the UK responds by buying from elsewhere other than EU and takes her trade else where?
Why would anyone want to break up these agreements in the hypothetical and hopeful expectation that a better deal exists elsewhere?
Risks much higher outside than in.
Boris the idiot has made a serious self vested calculation based on all his previous comments about London. How can anyone trust him now? Was he wrong? Will he change his mind and say he was wrong and we should be in? Either way man lacks integrity now. Doubt he'll ever be PM.
counter_violent
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EU is a bit like the titanic, structurally flawed and the only way is down.
So in my view UK would be far better off out of it. It's not as if we don't have the talent and drive to go it alone. What we do need is the political will to ensure it happens.
So in my view UK would be far better off out of it. It's not as if we don't have the talent and drive to go it alone. What we do need is the political will to ensure it happens.
Atilla
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Well one of the key factors in the sinking of the Titanic was the snots wanting to beat the Germans ships record for crossing the Atlantic and disregarding warnings of ice in the area.
And yes the boat was thought to be unsinkable.
The designers built it that way and at the outset had no life boats and only as an after thought put some on. Something like 12 or 14. Far less than lives on board. More for looks than anything else.
How wrong were they in the self confidence and death defying belief of the first class passengers???
Good point thanks CV :smart:
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From my point of view, UK will out from EU. This topic is discussed from 2012 and now is high time to solve this problem.
Currently UK is reconsidering its terms of EU membership and the key points for Brexit are banking freedom and extremely big flow of immigrants from less developed countries.
UK want to have more rights in banking sphere to reduce the probability of second wave of financial crisis. Here is a good article on this topic.
Only rumors on possible Brexit make pounds at 7 years low also have weakened FTSE index.
As for me, I'm permanently surfing news on this topic and want to hear your opinions on pros and cons of Brexit for UK and EU.
Currently UK is reconsidering its terms of EU membership and the key points for Brexit are banking freedom and extremely big flow of immigrants from less developed countries.
UK want to have more rights in banking sphere to reduce the probability of second wave of financial crisis. Here is a good article on this topic.
Only rumors on possible Brexit make pounds at 7 years low also have weakened FTSE index.
As for me, I'm permanently surfing news on this topic and want to hear your opinions on pros and cons of Brexit for UK and EU.
TexasRangersFan
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Merkal, Hollande etc. don't want the EU Parliament to do anything major and undercut their authority. Just like the Duma in Russia - powerless.
That is understandable. Germany and Britain are the backbone of the Europe. Germany saved Greece from bankruptcy twice in the last 3 years. And Spain and Italy are not doing much better. If Germany leaves the EU, that will be the end of the EU.
And Germany also hosts the American military which provides security for all of Europe, not just Germany.
So, it is not unreasonable to believe that they might want a disproportionate voting influence over and above Greece, Estonia and Latvia.
Back in 1975 I admit I voted against. And why ? Because of the political implications. Just a trading bloc would have been OK.
This present situation has the danger of an aggressive Hitler type bursting through on a national stage and demanding to control all Europe. Trump may start the decline into dictatorship. China already has a sort of dictatorship.[/QUOTE]
China has had a dictatorship since Mao Tse Tung defeated Chiang Kai Shek in 1946.
They have a capitalist economy but a Marxist government.
It's not a democracy when you only have one party and everyone votes the same way. It's not a democracy when they dictate the style of architecture that is permitted in the country, place restrictions on internet search engines and ban dissension.
Check out this photo. It's a nice pic of China's legislature standing for a group photo, all dressed the same way, standing with the same posture obedient to the party symbol hanging behind them.
Atilla
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The British government has set the wheels in motion for a popular referendum on June 23rd over whether to leave the European Union (EU). A British exit, or Brexit, would be the first such departure from the EU, despite the lingering possibility that a peripheral Eurozone economy, such as Greece or Spain, would be forced out. Previously, such a vote had not been anticipated to occur until at least the end of the year 2017.
The country is currently divided in early polling, with 43% of the population in favor and 40% opposed. Meanwhile, the Parliament is also split, as well as the corporations who comprise the FTSE 100 stock index in the U.K. (For more, see also: Brexit Uncertainties Dominate EU Summit.)
Some politicians and economists argue that a Brexit will free the United Kingdom to stabilize its economy and enact monetary policy more easily. They claim that the British economy will flourish outside the protectionism of the EU. Opponents, including Prime Minister David Cameron, warn that it could be a big mistake. Here are some negative possible outcomes stemming from a British exit. (For related reading, see: Will The UK Leave the EU?)
Currency Collapse
The British pound has already fallen more than 4% against the U.S. dollar, and nearly 6% versus the euro since the beginning of the year. Observers have noted that as the likelihood of a 'yes' vote to leave the EU increases, economic and political uncertainty also increase, causing the pound to fall. Many believe that foreign investment into Britain would fall and the demand for the pound abroad would weaken. (For more, see: British Pound Tumbles on Potential 'Brexit'.)
While a fall in the pound's value could theoretically benefit exporters, Britain's current account deficit, which stands at 4.5% of GDP, crucially needs foreign inflows of capital to finance it. In the absence of eager foreign direct investment, that budget deficit would be harder to support and the currency could fall even further.
Economic Recession
Opponents of a Brexit note that around 90% of British trade occurs with EU partners. Leaving the Eurozone may cause both political and economic rifts that will negatively impact trade. David Cameron has gone on the record saying, "Leaving Europe would threaten our economic and our national security." The result could be increased British protectionism in order to compete internationally and consequently a hit to Britain's GDP. French insurer AXA's analysis has pegged the drop in GDP to be somewhere between 2% and 7%. According to a new report by think tank Open Europe, Britain's GDP could be reduced by 2.2% over the next couple of decades, coupled with only a +1.55% best case scenario to the upside. The graph below illustrates Open Europe's conclusions.
Open_Europe_Brexit_Impact_Graph itemprop=
In a poll conducted by the UK-based Financial Times, more than 75% of economists surveyed predicted a negative economic outcome from a Brexit, with only 8% predicting a positive result.
Unemployment
Jobs could also be lost. Labor party leaders have stated that more than 50,000 manufacturing jobs would be lost and over 100,000 jobs lost in the banking sector. Some also worry that job-creating companies will be incentivized to leave Britain in favor of a location where they can easily and cheaply obtain European migrant labor, taking those jobs away as they relocate.
Some firms that are already thinking about scaling back in the U.K. in the event of a Brexit include food giant Nestlé, auto makers Hyundai Motor Company and Ford Motor Co. (F), and investment bank Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS). In fact, in a recent poll, nearly 30% of companies surveyed would leave the U.K. or drastically scale back operations there in the event of a Brexit.
U.K. unemployment currently stands at 5.4% after a slow recovery from a peak of over 8% following the 2008 financial crisis. A Brexit could cause that figure to spike back up to Great Recession levels. (For more, see: Brexit: Could Boris Johnson Keep Britain out of the EU?)
The Bottom Line
Britain's population is set to vote for a British exit, or Brexit, from the European Union in June of this year. While its supporters claim that being free from the EU pact would allow its economy to grow more rapidly and with greater autonomy, many others suggest that it can lead to the possible doomsday scenarios of currency collapse or a significant reduction in GDP and a loss of many thousands of jobs. With current polls projecting a split outcome among voters, politicians and businesses, the value of the pound and British asset markets may waver as the risk and uncertainty surrounding the vote increase.
The country is currently divided in early polling, with 43% of the population in favor and 40% opposed. Meanwhile, the Parliament is also split, as well as the corporations who comprise the FTSE 100 stock index in the U.K. (For more, see also: Brexit Uncertainties Dominate EU Summit.)
Some politicians and economists argue that a Brexit will free the United Kingdom to stabilize its economy and enact monetary policy more easily. They claim that the British economy will flourish outside the protectionism of the EU. Opponents, including Prime Minister David Cameron, warn that it could be a big mistake. Here are some negative possible outcomes stemming from a British exit. (For related reading, see: Will The UK Leave the EU?)
Currency Collapse
The British pound has already fallen more than 4% against the U.S. dollar, and nearly 6% versus the euro since the beginning of the year. Observers have noted that as the likelihood of a 'yes' vote to leave the EU increases, economic and political uncertainty also increase, causing the pound to fall. Many believe that foreign investment into Britain would fall and the demand for the pound abroad would weaken. (For more, see: British Pound Tumbles on Potential 'Brexit'.)
While a fall in the pound's value could theoretically benefit exporters, Britain's current account deficit, which stands at 4.5% of GDP, crucially needs foreign inflows of capital to finance it. In the absence of eager foreign direct investment, that budget deficit would be harder to support and the currency could fall even further.
Economic Recession
Opponents of a Brexit note that around 90% of British trade occurs with EU partners. Leaving the Eurozone may cause both political and economic rifts that will negatively impact trade. David Cameron has gone on the record saying, "Leaving Europe would threaten our economic and our national security." The result could be increased British protectionism in order to compete internationally and consequently a hit to Britain's GDP. French insurer AXA's analysis has pegged the drop in GDP to be somewhere between 2% and 7%. According to a new report by think tank Open Europe, Britain's GDP could be reduced by 2.2% over the next couple of decades, coupled with only a +1.55% best case scenario to the upside. The graph below illustrates Open Europe's conclusions.
Open_Europe_Brexit_Impact_Graph itemprop=
In a poll conducted by the UK-based Financial Times, more than 75% of economists surveyed predicted a negative economic outcome from a Brexit, with only 8% predicting a positive result.
Unemployment
Jobs could also be lost. Labor party leaders have stated that more than 50,000 manufacturing jobs would be lost and over 100,000 jobs lost in the banking sector. Some also worry that job-creating companies will be incentivized to leave Britain in favor of a location where they can easily and cheaply obtain European migrant labor, taking those jobs away as they relocate.
Some firms that are already thinking about scaling back in the U.K. in the event of a Brexit include food giant Nestlé, auto makers Hyundai Motor Company and Ford Motor Co. (F), and investment bank Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS). In fact, in a recent poll, nearly 30% of companies surveyed would leave the U.K. or drastically scale back operations there in the event of a Brexit.
U.K. unemployment currently stands at 5.4% after a slow recovery from a peak of over 8% following the 2008 financial crisis. A Brexit could cause that figure to spike back up to Great Recession levels. (For more, see: Brexit: Could Boris Johnson Keep Britain out of the EU?)
The Bottom Line
Britain's population is set to vote for a British exit, or Brexit, from the European Union in June of this year. While its supporters claim that being free from the EU pact would allow its economy to grow more rapidly and with greater autonomy, many others suggest that it can lead to the possible doomsday scenarios of currency collapse or a significant reduction in GDP and a loss of many thousands of jobs. With current polls projecting a split outcome among voters, politicians and businesses, the value of the pound and British asset markets may waver as the risk and uncertainty surrounding the vote increase.
Atilla
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I'm a little puzzled by Nigel Lawson backing Brexit after his wrecking of the UK Manufacturing industry by raising rates to shadow the Deutch Mark at 2.95 long time ago.
In order to maintain the pound in alignment with the strong DM, along the EMS the precurser to formation of the Euro he simply kept raising rates making naf UK products even more expensive abroad.
Soros knew it was a load of nonsense and kept shorting the pound. Until a German banker presented a similar opinion and we had Black Wednesday with the UK Treasury literally losing billions. Estimates vary between £3-27bn
https://www.chathamhouse.org/event/making-case-brexit
If I recall back then he was at cross swords with Mrs T and now he seems to be pro-Exit.
I always liked Nigel but not sure what his angle now is, so will be listening out to what he says with interest. :idea:
In order to maintain the pound in alignment with the strong DM, along the EMS the precurser to formation of the Euro he simply kept raising rates making naf UK products even more expensive abroad.
Soros knew it was a load of nonsense and kept shorting the pound. Until a German banker presented a similar opinion and we had Black Wednesday with the UK Treasury literally losing billions. Estimates vary between £3-27bn
https://www.chathamhouse.org/event/making-case-brexit
If I recall back then he was at cross swords with Mrs T and now he seems to be pro-Exit.
I always liked Nigel but not sure what his angle now is, so will be listening out to what he says with interest. :idea:
Pat494
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Prefer his daughter personally. Hi Nigella,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,love your dumplings
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counter_violent
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Atilla
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The out camp are throwing around a lot of hyperbole as to how much better the UK could do outside of the EU and somehow 11bn is wasted as if we get nothing back. :?::?::?:
Just thought it's interesting to note how well we have done and continue to do so as we are. Worth bearing in mind what we have now and what we may be turning our backs on.
The United Kingdom has the fifth-largest national economy (and second-largest in EU) measured by nominal GDP and tenth-largest in the world (and third-largest in the EU)[1][23] measured by purchasing power parity (PPP).
The UK has been the fastest growing economy in the G7 for 3 consecutive years as of October 2015.
In 2014 the UK was the ninth-largest exporter in the world and the fifth-largest importer, and had the second largest stock of inward foreign direct investment and the second-largest stock of outward foreign direct investment.[24][25]
The UK is one of the world's most globalised economies.[26] The UK economy comprises (in descending order of size) the economies of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_Kingdom
Just thought it's interesting to note how well we have done and continue to do so as we are. Worth bearing in mind what we have now and what we may be turning our backs on.
The United Kingdom has the fifth-largest national economy (and second-largest in EU) measured by nominal GDP and tenth-largest in the world (and third-largest in the EU)[1][23] measured by purchasing power parity (PPP).
The UK has been the fastest growing economy in the G7 for 3 consecutive years as of October 2015.
In 2014 the UK was the ninth-largest exporter in the world and the fifth-largest importer, and had the second largest stock of inward foreign direct investment and the second-largest stock of outward foreign direct investment.[24][25]
The UK is one of the world's most globalised economies.[26] The UK economy comprises (in descending order of size) the economies of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_Kingdom
Atilla
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On some TV show I heard the out camp make a point that we don't need the EU and we could achieve lots of bi-lateral agreements with other countries.
The Indian and Chinese PM's visits were mentioned and that right now we can't enter any agreements with them without first consulting the EU. Nigel Lawson made the same point in his heavy weight Chatham House speech.
What the out camp fails to add is that both the Indian, Chinese and the Japanese and the US suggest and want us to remain part of the EU.
Basically, the UK is very skill full at diplomacy, managing both sides to leverage maximum benefit out of her international partners.
It is very difficult to quantify the benefits of these kinds of deals but one should not underestimate their worth. Japanese may already be thinking if they should relocate their car assembly plants away from the Midlands to Bulgaria or Romania as the debate goes on.
The Indian and Chinese PM's visits were mentioned and that right now we can't enter any agreements with them without first consulting the EU. Nigel Lawson made the same point in his heavy weight Chatham House speech.
What the out camp fails to add is that both the Indian, Chinese and the Japanese and the US suggest and want us to remain part of the EU.
Basically, the UK is very skill full at diplomacy, managing both sides to leverage maximum benefit out of her international partners.
It is very difficult to quantify the benefits of these kinds of deals but one should not underestimate their worth. Japanese may already be thinking if they should relocate their car assembly plants away from the Midlands to Bulgaria or Romania as the debate goes on.
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Atilla
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I think it is quite right the director-general of the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) has been temporarily suspended.
The Civil Service and BCC said it will not camaign for either side. For John Longworth as the Director-General to then go on and comment on his personal view is clearly wrong.
Especially so when almost two thirds of its members voted to stay in, on an online poll.
Boris has really lost the plot attacking his suspension as heavy handed move by the Government. I feel he is now fighting for his career rather than applying good common sense behind his actions.
What I would term an opportunist politician trying to make capital out of events. Not to be trusted imo
The Civil Service and BCC said it will not camaign for either side. For John Longworth as the Director-General to then go on and comment on his personal view is clearly wrong.
Especially so when almost two thirds of its members voted to stay in, on an online poll.
Boris has really lost the plot attacking his suspension as heavy handed move by the Government. I feel he is now fighting for his career rather than applying good common sense behind his actions.
What I would term an opportunist politician trying to make capital out of events. Not to be trusted imo
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isatrader
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I think there's a lot of cr@p coming out of both sides. But I think a key part of the decision for me is whether I want England to be the equivalent of Scotland or Wales, with limited say in how our country is run, within in a United States of Europe. As that is where the European Union wants to head long term. And if we vote to stay, I believe there will be no way not to be part of it, no matter what deals we have today, if we want to have a seat at the top table about how this new multi-nation state is run. As if we are instead part of a two tier Europe, then we would be left out of all the key decisions and have little influence, much like today.
So we are either all in, or all out imo, and all the other arguments are meaningless, as no ones knows what will happen either way. So imo the decision shouldn't be based on how it is today, but where it wants to be in our lifetimes. So do you want to be British, or do you want to be a European. In my house we have one of each.
So we are either all in, or all out imo, and all the other arguments are meaningless, as no ones knows what will happen either way. So imo the decision shouldn't be based on how it is today, but where it wants to be in our lifetimes. So do you want to be British, or do you want to be a European. In my house we have one of each.
Pat494
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Could make an alternative power block and invite other countries to join !
Just some sensible ideas and institutions might be enough.
Atilla
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Both! One does not exclude the other imo. You decide what you want to be. Being European doesn't stop one being British imo.
I concur Parliament is a great house but we will not be losing it. I see EU as being similar to the House of Lords, simply adding another chamber or level to the decision and law making process. Not forgetting 'British' representation will also exist in EU Parliament.
When thinking about what comes over from Europe, on Radio 4 somebody pointed out the reason why our beaches and coast lines have improved in cleanliness is because of European directives. Its not all about the size or curvature of cucumbers but many good standards and practices also come over from Europe which our lot wouldn't have embraced otherwise.
Personally, nationalities and borders mean jack to me. It's about way of life, culture, work, food, family and simply living a good life. I can easily live in Italy where my health and joints would be far happier for it. Don't see Europe as some other country but more my back yard.
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