Brexit and the Consequences

[Atilla]

Hi At',
HoC = House of Commons.

For EU elections to be avoided, parliament has to pass whatever withdrawal agreement the Tories and Labour concoct - assuming they come up with something. I'm saying they definitely will - and they've got until May 22nd to do it. These talks will produce something - because they absolutely have to - as EU elections, if contested, would be a mega car crash for both main parties. Once the negotiating teams agree terms, regardless of how unpalatable they are for either party, then voting the deal through the HoC will be a rubber stamp affair. The only real question is how much worse the Con/Lab deal will be than Mrs. May's existing pants deal.
Tim.

Thanks Tim, that's Parliament to me so agree it needs to get passed the votes.

imo there is no better deal than our current one.

Better deal for UK means braking up the EU. Membership rules are clear. There are also about 13 tiered membership types. Brexiteers playing silly buggers. Out means out not happening as they don't represent majority of UK. As mentioned if the Farage gets 30% I'll be suprised.

What is not clear is what UK wants. What it wants that has been branded about politicians promising stuff that can't be delivered is exactly that. Having their cake and eating whilst delivering zilch to the rest of us. Pie in the sky. That should be clear to most by now but Brexiteers still believe in the hype and lies.

 

[Signalcalc]

The local election result is clear: Labour and Tory remainers have migrated to Libdem, Greens and Independent, Labour & Tory leavers have migrated to sitting on their hands & Independent. UKIP have lost as a result of Farage leaving and the ensuing leadership debacle and TR association.

EU elections will see Brexit Party sweep the board, that's when the real Brexit sentiment will become clear and will be a predictor of the General Election.

If Tories and Labour in their blind panic manage to fudge a BRINO as @timsk predicts, it will only make it worse for the established parties in the GE, as by that time the Brexit Party will be organised and overwhelmed with candidates, the CUK'd party will be on a par with UKIP by then

Credit is due to Libdems for having a clear anti-democratic remain message where Tories and Labour are fudging their anti-democratic messages, UKIP had a clear democratic leave message which has been obscured by their various in-party issues.

 

[Atilla]

Fair assessment SC.

I've always considered the LibDem message to be on the nail and in UK interest. Many politicians jumped on the Brexit band wagon of popularity but much like a fad it's a candle burning it self out.

It's hard to hold on to ones ethics and principals against popularism so to speak but very happy with them.

I think Tories are the root cause of our issues in trying to maintain power hence the referendum to squash UKIP and Labour trying to be all things to all people lacking a clear message as you rightly point out.

Also, concur about EU elections where the message is a little more difficult to send as mass public don't understand how EU operates. I do hope the remain bodies take the MEP elections as an opportunity to largely educate the mass British public about EU democratic process.

 

[Signalcalc]

Will have to do some more

Fair assessment SC.

I've always considered the LibDem message to be on the nail and in UK interest. Many politicians jumped on the Brexit band wagon of popularity but much like a fad it's a candle burning it self out.

It's hard to hold on to ones ethics and principals against popularism so to speak but very happy with them.

I think Tories are the root cause of our issues in trying to maintain power hence the referendum to squash UKIP and Labour trying to be all things to all people lacking a clear message as you rightly point out.

Also, concur about EU elections where the message is a little more difficult to send as mass public don't understand how EU operates. I do hope the remain bodies take the MEP elections as an opportunity to largely educate the mass British public about EU democratic process.

Sorry Att, having difficulty deciphering your post, I can't make head nor tail of what you are saying, just seems a mixed up jumble of words trying to get a message out, but not reaching the brain cells, are you sure you didn't vote Tory or Labour or have you been on the pop celebrating all day

 

[Atilla]

Will have to do some more


Sorry Att, having difficulty deciphering your post, I can't make head nor tail of what you are saying, just seems a mixed up jumble of words trying to get a message out, but not reaching the brain cells, are you sure you didn't vote Tory or Labour or have you been on the pop celebrating all day

Que?

 

[timsk]

. . . I do hope the remain bodies take the MEP elections as an opportunity to largely educate the mass British public about EU democratic process.

When you say 'educate', I presume you mean lie!
This would be a foolish thing to try and do as the very deep hole they're already in will just get deeper. However, if you/they insist upon trying, a good starting point will be to explain why we haven't already left the EU on March 29th. After all, that date was - and remains - enshrined in U.K. law, as Article 50 has neither been repealed nor superseded. Everyone can see - plain as day - that the 'EU democratic process' trumps our laws and democratic process and that we have to do what Brussels tells us. The growing problem for remoaners is that ordinary level headed remainers (who form the majority of those who voted remain in 2016) can see for themselves what it is that brexiteers were carping on about prior to the referendum. They may not have accepted it or believed it back then but, with all that's happened since, they now know, understand and accept fully that leavers have legitimate concerns about just how undemocratic the EU really is. So At', good luck with brainwashing - oops, I mean educating the British public - you're gonna need it.
Tim.

 

[Signalcalc]

Que?

Fair assessment SC.

Many politicians jumped on the Brexit band wagon of popularity but much like a fad it's a candle burning it self out.

Not sure what you mean, looks like most politicians were and remain remainers to me? I don't see a fad either, I see more entrenched positions on both sides and it aint going away, no matter how much remainers wish it to.

It's hard to hold on to ones ethics and principals against popularism so to speak but very happy with them.

Why is it hard to hold on to ethics and principals, who are you talking about? But you're happy with what, ethics and principals or the people holding them (and who are these people anyway?)

I think Tories are the root cause of our issues in trying to maintain power hence the referendum to squash UKIP and Labour trying to be all things to all people lacking a clear message as you rightly point out.

What referendum to squash UKIP ? I don't think Labour are trying to do anything other than force a general election and take power, doesn't look likely to happen now though.

Also, concur about EU elections where the message is a little more difficult to send as mass public don't understand how EU operates. I do hope the remain bodies take the MEP elections as an opportunity to largely educate the mass British public about EU democratic process.

Timsk has answered this one and I agree, if remainers haven't realised after 3 years what is really going on with the EU and understand the leavers position then I'm afraid they never will, either through choice, ignorance or just bloody mindedness.

I'm not having a go, just trying to work out some of your statements, now I'm reaching for a bottle of beer, it's Friday night, cheers 🍺🍻🍻

 

[barjon]

When you say 'educate', I presume you mean lie!
This would be a foolish thing to try and do as the very deep hole they're already in will just get deeper. However, if you/they insist upon trying, a good starting point will be to explain why we haven't already left the EU on March 29th. After all, that date was - and remains - enshrined in U.K. law, as Article 50 has neither been repealed nor superseded. Everyone can see - plain as day - that the 'EU democratic process' trumps our laws and democratic process and that we have to do what Brussels tells us. The growing problem for remoaners is that ordinary level headed remainers (who form the majority of those who voted remain in 2016) can see for themselves what it is that brexiteers were carping on about prior to the referendum. They may not have accepted it or believed it back then but, with all that's happened since, they now know, understand and accept fully that leavers have legitimate concerns about just how undemocratic the EU really is. So At', good luck with brainwashing - oops, I mean educating the British public - you're gonna need it.
Tim.

Tim,

If I’m reading you right you seem to be blaming the EU for us not leaving on 29th March ? The leaving date was enshrined in OUR law (by US) and it is WE who asked them for an extension to the date, they didn’t tell us to do it. That we haven’t gone yet is down to the chaos in OUR parliament, not the EU’s processes.

Be patient, though. We will be off, albeit with a worse deal than we could have had if the hard line brexiteers hadn’t been busy firing their guns into their own feet.

Cheers

Jon

 

[Signalcalc]

'Guy Verhofstadt campaigning for the Brexit Party again'

https://twitter.com/x/status/1123124704292814848

 

[counter_violent]

Tim,

If I’m reading you right you seem to be blaming the EU for us not leaving on 29th March ? The leaving date was enshrined in OUR law (by US) and it is WE who asked them for an extension to the date, they didn’t tell us to do it. That we haven’t gone yet is down to the chaos in OUR parliament, not the EU’s processes.

Be patient, though. We will be off, albeit with a worse deal than we could have had if the hard line brexiteers hadn’t been busy firing their guns into their own feet.

Cheers

Jon

No Deal will be perfect for us actually and extremely bad for the EU. Although, you didn't mean that kind of deal.
What you meant was some cobbled together LabCon fudge that will be worse than May's thrice rejected bad deal.

How long will it take for everyone to wake up to the fact that we will be leaving with No Deal. The voting public will force the position as explained by Signalcalc and Timsk.

 

[barjon]

No Deal will be perfect for us actually and extremely bad for the EU. Although, you didn't mean that kind of deal.
What you meant was some cobbled together LabCon fudge that will be worse than May's thrice rejected bad deal.

How long will it take for everyone to wake up to the fact that we will be leaving with No Deal. The voting public will force the position as explained by Signalcalc and Timsk.

I’m with Tim and his “dead cert” view of a Con/Lab compromise. About the only think parliament agrees about is that “no deal” is a bad thing so I think you’re kicking against the pricks a bit. As Tim says, both the major parties are under strong pressure to cook up an agreement since, to judge from yesterday’s locals, they both have reason to fear a general election.

 

[Atilla]

Not sure what you mean, looks like most politicians were and remain remainers to me? I don't see a fad either, I see more entrenched positions on both sides and it aint going away, no matter how much remainers wish it to.



Why is it hard to hold on to ethics and principals, who are you talking about? But you're happy with what, ethics and principals or the people holding them (and who are these people anyway?)



What referendum to squash UKIP ? I don't think Labour are trying to do anything other than force a general election and take power, doesn't look likely to happen now though.



Timsk has answered this one and I agree, if remainers haven't realised after 3 years what is really going on with the EU and understand the leavers position then I'm afraid they never will, either through choice, ignorance or just bloody mindedness.

I'm not having a go, just trying to work out some of your statements, now I'm reaching for a bottle of beer, it's Friday night, cheers 🍺🍻🍻

Not sure what you mean, looks like most politicians were and remain remainers to me? I don't see a fad either, I see more entrenched positions on both sides and it aint going away, no matter how much remainers wish it to.



Why is it hard to hold on to ethics and principals, who are you talking about? But you're happy with what, ethics and principals or the people holding them (and who are these people anyway?)



What referendum to squash UKIP ? I don't think Labour are trying to do anything other than force a general election and take power, doesn't look likely to happen now though.



Timsk has answered this one and I agree, if remainers haven't realised after 3 years what is really going on with the EU and understand the leavers position then I'm afraid they never will, either through choice, ignorance or just bloody mindedness.

I'm not having a go, just trying to work out some of your statements, now I'm reaching for a bottle of beer, it's Friday night, cheers 🍺🍻🍻

Hi SC, you are right and increasingly I think I have a brain condition unable to write what I'm thinking. I think it's to do with speed of thought and typing unable to keep up sort of thing but I do read back and wonder what I was on?

Ok here goes. Take II.

Point 1. Originally when TM first came in as the elected PM, she was flying high in the polls and Tories all mighty on all their red lines and how they would deliver on the referendum. Power can be intoxicating. There were few remainers and it was almost not fashionable to be remainers. Their was much talk of we've had the vote let's get on with it, without really thinking about the planning the how or the consequences. LibDems were the only party to hold the line. Not to cave in. Continue with due process of working through Parliament. There were calls for unity and TM to get Parliament and other parties involved but the Tories typically full of them selves, ignored all reasonable and rational calls. Article 50 got invoked far too quickly without due diligence on the what, how, when, where. No BIA or white paper or any plans even on strategy for negotiations on UK position or what she wanted. There was sooooo much hype and tosh, which summarised pretty much Brexiteers position. Of course there was the NI border which wasn't even considered either. Made UK government look like a fool. All bluster and no substance.

Even the Brexiteers have changed their position now. As before much like fly hitting your windscreen at 70mph, Brexiteers derear engaged their brain soon after invoking article 50.

With respect to ethics and principals do you think TM has any? Lost count amount of times she's shifted position. Number of cabinet ministers who have resigned. The way she has undermined her own ministers. Same goes for Labour. Corbyn supposed to be man of principal but who really knows much like TM what his position on Brexit is? A mystery.

Third point about the reason why Cameron called the referendum. Purely to maintain tory power because UKIP was eating into their support base. Cameron or the Tories weren't in a dilemma about EU. Their worry was losing power to Labour because their MPs and supporters were defecting to UKIP. As before EU was not an issue to most of British public. Local and National issues far more important.

Fourth point about educating the masses about how EU works is really for Brexiteers who say system is undemocratic. Remainers know they are represented and happy with EU and UK's position and role in the EU. It is the Brexiteers who need to know why we are holding MEP elections so they can understand each country is represented and they get to vote the MEPs of their choice in. Elected MEPs the people choose have the power to vote on legislation whether to pass them or not. Elected MEPs chosen by the people once every five years, hold the European Commission to account.

I so hope LibDems make a come back. In fact along with the independents they are UK's only reasonable hope to get us out of this mess.

 

[Signalcalc]

Hi SC, you are right and increasingly I think I have a brain condition unable to write what I'm thinking. I think it's to do with speed of thought and typing unable to keep up sort of thing but I do read back and wonder what I was on?

Ok here goes. Take II.

Point 1. Originally when TM first came in as the elected PM, she was flying high in the polls and Tories all mighty on all their red lines and how they would deliver on the referendum. Power can be intoxicating. There were few remainers and it was almost not fashionable to be remainers. Their was much talk of we've had the vote let's get on with it, without really thinking about the planning the how or the consequences. LibDems were the only party to hold the line. Not to cave in. Continue with due process of working through Parliament. There were calls for unity and TM to get Parliament and other parties involved but the Tories typically full of them selves, ignored all reasonable and rational calls. Article 50 got invoked far too quickly without due diligence on the what, how, when, where. No BIA or white paper or any plans even on strategy for negotiations on UK position or what she wanted. There was sooooo much hype and tosh, which summarised pretty much Brexiteers position. Of course there was the NI border which wasn't even considered either. Made UK government look like a fool. All bluster and no substance.

Even the Brexiteers have changed their position now. As before much like fly hitting your windscreen at 70mph, Brexiteers derear engaged their brain soon after invoking article 50.

With respect to ethics and principals do you think TM has any? Lost count amount of times she's shifted position. Number of cabinet ministers who have resigned. The way she has undermined her own ministers. Same goes for Labour. Corbyn supposed to be man of principal but who really knows much like TM what his position on Brexit is? A mystery.

Third point about the reason why Cameron called the referendum. Purely to maintain tory power because UKIP was eating into their support base. Cameron or the Tories weren't in a dilemma about EU. Their worry was losing power to Labour because their MPs and supporters were defecting to UKIP. As before EU was not an issue to most of British public. Local and National issues far more important.

Fourth point about educating the masses about how EU works is really for Brexiteers who say system is undemocratic. Remainers know they are represented and happy with EU and UK's position and role in the EU. It is the Brexiteers who need to know why we are holding MEP elections so they can understand each country is represented and they get to vote the MEPs of their choice in. Elected MEPs the people choose have the power to vote on legislation whether to pass them or not. Elected MEPs chosen by the people once every five years, hold the European Commission to account.

I so hope LibDems make a come back. In fact along with the independents they are UK's only reasonable hope to get us out of this mess.

So principled opposition is a principle worth upholding? I agree, I will ensure my principled opposition to the EU remains intact

 

[Signalcalc]

Fourth point about educating the masses about how EU works is really for Brexiteers who say system is undemocratic. Remainers know they are represented and happy with EU and UK's position and role in the EU. It is the Brexiteers who need to know why we are holding MEP elections so they can understand each country is represented and they get to vote the MEPs of their choice in. Elected MEPs the people choose have the power to vote on legislation whether to pass them or not. Elected MEPs chosen by the people once every five years, hold the European Commission to account.

Yes let's educate Brexiteers a little more beyond what they already know about the undemocratic EU and the level of treason that the Theresa May govt is involved in.

Chequers and Security – Professor Gwythian Prins – Veterans for Britain

veteransforbritain.uk

 

[timsk]

Tim,

If I’m reading you right you seem to be blaming the EU for us not leaving on 29th March ? The leaving date was enshrined in OUR law (by US) and it is WE who asked them for an extension to the date, they didn’t tell us to do it. That we haven’t gone yet is down to the chaos in OUR parliament, not the EU’s processes.

Be patient, though. We will be off, albeit with a worse deal than we could have had if the hard line brexiteers hadn’t been busy firing their guns into their own feet.

Cheers

Jon

Hi Jon,
I'm not blaming the EU as such, merely pointing out that our parliament has not done anything to override Article 50. It's U.K. law that's just been ignored! Mrs. May unilaterally decided to ask the EU for an extension; without consultation (that I'm aware of) with parliament either before or afterwards. The EU gave us until the end of October; doubtless that date will come and go like all the others have. There really is no point in voting on bills and passing them into UK law if they're not going to be acted upon and the Prime Minister of the day can ignore them at her will to suit her own needs and agenda. If she doesn't respect her own laws passed by her own government - why on earth should the rest of us be expected to stick to them?
Tim.

 

[Atilla]

Hi Jon,
I'm not blaming the EU as such, merely pointing out that our parliament has not done anything to override Article 50. It's U.K. law that's just been ignored! Mrs. May unilaterally decided to ask the EU for an extension; without consultation (that I'm aware of) with parliament either before or afterwards. The EU gave us until the end of October; doubtless that date will come and go like all the others have. There really is no point in voting on bills and passing them into UK law if they're not going to be acted upon and the Prime Minister of the day can ignore them at her will to suit her own needs and agenda. If she doesn't respect her own laws passed by her own government - why on earth should the rest of us be expected to stick to them?
Tim.

Tim you really need to reflect on your thoughts as they are nothing but your incorrect understanding of what we have been through.

1. Parliament voted to reject leaving the EU without a deal. There were quite a few other propositions put to Parliament where votes were taken but no agreement could be reached. Also remember that TM's Brexit deal got the biggest rejection evar in our lifetime.

2. Mrs May has not unilaterally decided to ask for an extension. The cabinet she leads did so. Based on 1 above, crashing out was not deemed to be a prudent option by Parliament. What else was there to do?

3. PM is not a law maker and she too is bound by UK laws. She was found to be in contempt of Parliament so where you get your facts or how you form your opinions is fascinating. Maybe you should write an article on trading psychology thread on how you assess and reach your conclusions on current events that are going on around you.

 

[barjon]

Hi Jon,
I'm not blaming the EU as such, merely pointing out that our parliament has not done anything to override Article 50. It's U.K. law that's just been ignored! Mrs. May unilaterally decided to ask the EU for an extension; without consultation (that I'm aware of) with parliament either before or afterwards. The EU gave us until the end of October; doubtless that date will come and go like all the others have. There really is no point in voting on bills and passing them into UK law if they're not going to be acted upon and the Prime Minister of the day can ignore them at her will to suit her own needs and agenda. If she doesn't respect her own laws passed by her own government - why on earth should the rest of us be expected to stick to them?
Tim.

Tim
Ok, so “Everyone can see - plain as day - that the 'EU democratic process' trumps our laws and democratic process and that we have to do what Brussels tells us” is not relevant to explaining why we didn’t leave on 29 March?

I certainly understand the frustration and I share your fears about a cobbled together con/lab compromise that will leave us tied into the EU more than May’s deal.

I also see that Matthew Paris is claiming the massive LibDem result in the local elections is a massive Remain vote (well he would wouldn’t he). Building up pressure for a second referendum, maybe (God forbid)? Where would you stand if you had to choose between a May minus deal or staying in?
Jon

 

[Atilla]

So principled opposition is a principle worth upholding? I agree, I will ensure my principled opposition to the EU remains intact

SC I asked you before to nominate your choice of principalled candidates but similar to UKIP Farage and pretty much most of Brexiteers, you seem to rubbish what you see but are unable to offer any alternatives.

I'm sure you championed Boris (who took a full weekend to determine his Brexit stance after initially supporting the EU as being significant to ensuring London maintaining her financial position). Where is he now? Had a few dinners with his dad and Farage didn't he?

Where is Gove? Who said he wouldn't stand for PM position only to stab his partner Boris in the back just after 2 days.

Where is Farage who quit his party just when they and the country needed him most to carry on. Went chasing fame and money to his matey in US, smiling happy days in a golden lift?

Where is Leadsom who remained in cabinet when all her fellow Brexiteers tried to bring TM down agreeing to an abysmal deal costing UK billions to be have some sort of Norway type deal to take instructions and commands from the EU without contributing to how those deals are made?

Farage has already started attacking the HoLords without any alternatives on what to replace it with. UKIP don't want him. You also accused him of trying to destroy UKIP as he left.


You see Brexiteers are always rubbishing what is out there but not really putting anything up for us to appraise or evaluate so one can make an informed decision.


A lot of gas and hot air talking about flights of fancy to nowhere.

 

[timsk]

Hi At',

Tim you really need to reflect on your thoughts as they are nothing but your incorrect understanding of what we have been through.

. . . in your opinion. Many people share the views I've expressed here, it's not original thought on my part.

1. Parliament voted to reject leaving the EU without a deal. There were quite a few other propositions put to Parliament where votes were taken but no agreement could be reached. Also remember that TM's Brexit deal got the biggest rejection evar in our lifetime.

Yes, parliament expressed a preference - but it's not legally binding. That ought to resonate loudly with you of all people. After all, how many times have you repeated on here that the referendum was advisory. Article 50 is the actual law - or at least it's supposed to be.

2. Mrs May has not unilaterally decided to ask for an extension. The cabinet she leads did so. Based on 1 above, crashing out was not deemed to be a prudent option by Parliament. What else was there to do?

May can't promise over and over and over again that we leave on March 29th with or without a deal, pass her commitment into law via Article 50 and then on a whim change her mind even if some (I doubt all) cabinet members agreed to it. If you think this is an acceptable way for government to operate - then I think you'll find you're in the minority.

3. PM is not a law maker and she too is bound by UK laws. She was found to be in contempt of Parliament so where you get your facts or how you form your opinions is fascinating. Maybe you should write an article on trading psychology thread on how you assess and reach your conclusions on current events that are going on around you.

That's my point At'. She can't unilaterally change the law and she can't ignore the law. However, for all intents and purposes that's what she's done. Essentially, all that I've said here and in the last few posts is expressed by Robin Tilbrook and his supporters who are trying to bring a case before the high court stating that legally we've already left the EU on 29th March. You can read about it here: Legal expert’s March 29 Brexit delay challenge deemed ‘STRONG CASE’ in High Court
Tim.

 

[timsk]

Hi Jon,

Ok, so “Everyone can see - plain as day - that the 'EU democratic process' trumps our laws and democratic process and that we have to do what Brussels tells us” is not relevant to explaining why we didn’t leave on 29 March? . . .

Errm, not sure of your point or how to respond??? Hopefully my last post in reply to Atilla clarifies my thinking on this?

. . . I also see that Matthew Paris is claiming the massive LibDem result in the local elections is a massive Remain vote (well he would wouldn’t he). Building up pressure for a second referendum, maybe (God forbid)? Where would you stand if you had to choose between a May minus deal or staying in.

I've long since given up listening to anything Matthew Paris says about Brexit. He's a pleasant enough chap but he's the absolute personification of the 'liberal elite'!

On a 'May minus deal or staying in' I'd probably opt to stay in. But that assumes the binary choice and I had a gun to my head. If that's what we're presented with at a second referendum, I would either boycott the vote or spoil my ballot paper. There is some debate as to which of these two courses of action is the best: something I dearly hope brexiteers from all parties would reach a consensus on ahead of going to the polls.
Tim.