Brexit and the Consequences

[Signalcalc]

Once again I say point me to an Airbus press release where they try to heap the blame for scrapping their A380 on Brexit. Come on now, they are at the heart of project fear so there must be something beyond the wild gyrations of your imagination.

And, btw, surely you are not surprised that an essentially joint European venture should be unhappy about one of its key constituents leaving the fold with the associated problems that creates for them. Be interesting to see if BAE can continue their participation in the long term.

Did you actually read my response containing my rationale?

 

[Atilla]

UK isn't out just yet. Be patient. UK was leading EU out of the downturn. Brexit has stalled UK investment and growth. EU did overtake UK. Leapfrogging quite usual along with all boats rise and sink with the tide phenomenon.

Numbers are a bit hocus pocus and not all the same. So many peeps in UK on zero contract hours and don't show on employment stats.

UK also has had sterling devalued by 10-20%

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/manufacturing-pmi

UK still heading lower. The cost of missed opportunities arising from Brexit fiasco will be very difficult to quantify. It'll come out in the wash in a few years. We'll have to wait and see.

Napkin's not enough, you need a towel for your mouth that's for sure.

 

[barjon]

Di you actually read my response containing my rationale?

Yes, I did. Quite imaginative it was. Unfortunately, nowhere in their anti Brexit stance - every view against Brexit you seem to classify as project fear regardless - have they sought to blame it (Brexit) for the scrapping of the A380.

 

[Signalcalc]

Guidance
Commercial road haulage in the EU if there’s no Brexit deal
Published 24 September 2018


https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...ad-haulage-in-the-eu-if-theres-no-brexit-deal

Means more business to EU haulage companies and less for British ones.

EU will gain filling in void UK leaves behind. Think about it.

You can add this to Finance, Pharmacuticals, Agriculture and Motor Industries as another one of those industries not highlighted by any business impact assessments.

Why use British Hauliers when one can use EU ones?

Where the upbeat story about the EU that is good for the UK?

For starters, the link you've used was withdrawn a month ago, secondly the guidance is for the documentation that may be required post-Brexit.

How you extrapolate that EU hauliers will gain extra business from this is beyond me as the EU hauliers will also have to meet the changed documentary requirements

 

[Signalcalc]

Yes, I did. Quite imaginative it was. Unfortunately, nowhere in their anti Brexit stance -

Good At least I have a speculative imagination, that can provide entertaining new theories, we need more of those rather than a slavish following of the MSM [mostly] fake news.

every view against Brexit you seem to classify as project fear regardless - have they sought to blame it (Brexit) for the scrapping of the A380.

Every view? Probably not, but project fear is just an extension of the campaign to remain and therefore has no basis in truth, only speculation, I could be right I could be wrong, do you have some special powers with which you are able to provide the truth? If so, then I am open to alternative theories and discussion, if the truth turns up and is different then I will stand corrected.

Keep digging at something I implied for it may be the truth, it may not be, who knows? You're not going to get me to answer that question though

 

[Signalcalc]

UK isn't out just yet. Be patient. UK was leading EU out of the downturn. Brexit has stalled UK investment and growth. EU did overtake UK. Leapfrogging quite usual along with all boats rise and sink with the tide phenomenon.

Numbers are a bit hocus pocus and not all the same. So many peeps in UK on zero contract hours and don't show on employment stats.

UK also has had sterling devalued by 10-20%

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/manufacturing-pmi

UK still heading lower. The cost of missed opportunities arising from Brexit fiasco will be very difficult to quantify. It'll come out in the wash in a few years. We'll have to wait and see.

Napkin's not enough, you need a towel for your mouth that's for sure.

Explain how you are attributing your assertions to Brexit, I'm not seeing the evidence presented?

 

[barjon]

Good At least I have a speculative imagination, that can provide entertaining new theories, we need more of those rather than a slavish following of the MSM [mostly] fake news.




Every view? Probably not, but project fear is just an extension of the campaign to remain and therefore has no basis in truth, only speculation, I could be right I could be wrong, do you have some special powers with which you are able to provide the truth? If so, then I am open to alternative theories and discussion, if the truth turns up and is different then I will stand corrected.

Keep digging at something I implied for it may be the truth, it may not be, who knows? You're not going to get me to answer that question though

Ah, for those who worship at the Brexit altar there is no other truth but theirs. Reminds me of that old story about the newcomer to heaven who asks St Peter why some people just totally ignore him when most are so friendly and welcoming. “Oh don’t worry about them” says St Peter “they’re the catholics and they think they’re the only ones here”. Non - pc nowadays I suppose

 

[Signalcalc]

Ah, for those who worship at the Brexit altar there is no other truth but theirs. Reminds me of that old story about the newcomer to heaven who asks St Peter why some people just totally ignore him when most are so friendly and welcoming. “Oh don’t worry about them” says St Peter “they’re the catholics and they think they’re the only ones here”. Non - pc nowadays I suppose

Touché

 

[Signalcalc]

Electoral commission

https://twitter.com/x/status/1095662815908642821

 

[Signalcalc]

I think the time has arrived to acknowledge that we do have an alternative choice at the next elections:

The Brexit Party - one trick pony, might be needed though, wasted if we do exit in a few weeks, could be enduring post-Brexit if they have other worthy policies
UKIP - middle of the road, experience in EU parliament, plenty of MEPs, potential government forming
The For Britain Movement - difficult one, riding on plenty of common sense, appeals, but will need a monumental effort to get near UKIP, potential for many splits and fall outs, in fact all three have that potential, just as liblabcon do

Certainly no need to vote for liblabcon anymore, plenty of alternatives around now. The winds of change are a blowing.

 

[timsk]

Ah, for those who worship at the Brexit altar there is no other truth but theirs. . .

Hi Jon,
As a Brexiteer, I accept there's a good deal of truth in your comment, but doesn't this apply equally as much to those who worship at the EU's altar?

All that Brexiteers are doing is defending the 2016 referendum result and trying to ensure that it's implemented. After all, it was the 'Brexit truth' that won the referendum: the 'Remain truth' lost it - so it's entirely reasonable and understandable that Brexiteers stick doggedly to their guns. In fact, it's vital that they do, because if they don't and Brexit isn't delivered, then our parliamentary democratic system will lie in tatters, and the consequences of that will be a national catastrophe that will dwarf any outcome regarding Brexit. And who knows where - or to what - that will lead. One thing's for sure, almost certainly it will be infinitely worse than a no-deal Brexit.

IMO, the whole debate has gone beyond Brexit. It's not really about that anymore. It's morphed into whether or not we have a functioning government and democracy that is fit for purpose in which everyone can trust and put their faith in. If we lose that - and we're perilously close to doing so IMO - then we'll all be up poo creek in a barbed wire boat without a paddle.
Tim.

 

[cantagril]

Hi Jon,
As a Brexiteer, I accept there's a good deal of truth in your comment, but doesn't this apply equally as much to those who worship at the EU's altar?

All that Brexiteers are doing is defending the 2016 referendum result and trying to ensure that it's implemented. After all, it was the 'Brexit truth' that won the referendum: the 'Remain truth' lost it - so it's entirely reasonable and understandable that Brexiteers stick doggedly to their guns. In fact, it's vital that they do, because if they don't and Brexit isn't delivered, then our parliamentary democratic system will lie in tatters, and the consequences of that will be a national catastrophe that will dwarf any outcome regarding Brexit. And who knows where - or to what - that will lead. One thing's for sure, almost certainly it will be infinitely worse than a no-deal Brexit.

IMO, the whole debate has gone beyond Brexit. It's not really about that anymore. It's morphed into whether or not we have a functioning government and democracy that is fit for purpose in which everyone can trust and put their faith in. If we lose that - and we're perilously close to doing so IMO - then we'll all be up poo creek in a barbed wire boat without a paddle.
Tim.

At the risk of further muddying the waters, you are IMO, quite right in saying that the original question is beginning to take second place but I would suggest that the "functioning government and democracy" issue you refer to is just one of the more visible strata of what is a multi-layered abomination of quicksand into which everybody is sinking.

Our particular brand of pseudo-democracy depends very much on NOT seeing things in a completely binary way and it is precisely this inefficiency which has given us a fairly long run of relative political stability. There are so many fallacies at the heart of both the Remain and Leaver camps that there is no hope of any kind of resolution that could be seen as equitable. When the whole question of the UK's relationship with the EU and Europe( and the rest of the world) was reduced to the black and white of the referendum there was never going to be a possibility of a broad-based absolute majority. As with most matters, it all comes down to shades of grey (and there are many many more than 50) - There are valid arguments for leaving as there are for staying and negotiating - there is no binary Good or Evil question to be posed and much in the same way we are fond of demonizing people we see as "Bad" we also like to Canonize the supposedly "Good". Hitler turned out to be a monster but for almost a decade before the war a large proportion of the German population saw him as a saviour and a good man and he had quite a few fans here too. To the end, he liked and was kind to children and doted on his dog....so at what precise point is it possible to say "There, right there, in that exact moment" he went from Angel to Demon, from ordinary bloke to something unhuman?

With hindsight everything seems clear but drawing a line and proclaiming that one side of that line is right and the other wrong is in itself a kind of madness. That action effectively rendered debate not just ineffective but impossible and as the Westminster model depends so completely on reasoned debate we are now in the situation (as Tim suggests) where we are now doubting not only the question but the process and the whole political environment. ...but wait! It gets better still: there is a growing sense in some circles that our political parties have reached their Best-Before dates, that the Westminster system is in its dotage and currently redundant .....and that best of all, democracy may no longer be the answer to our present travails.

The Gilets Jaunes (sounds so much better than "Hi-Viz") in France are united by their dissatisfaction with the current situation but the two main camps want things that are mutually exclusive so there cannot be a quick fix. No political decision is going to resolve their fundamental problems and over here we are rapidly approaching that same stage, if we're not already there...and if we are, what then?

 

[barjon]

Hi Jon,
As a Brexiteer, I accept there's a good deal of truth in your comment, but doesn't this apply equally as much to those who worship at the EU's altar?

All that Brexiteers are doing is defending the 2016 referendum result and trying to ensure that it's implemented. After all, it was the 'Brexit truth' that won the referendum: the 'Remain truth' lost it - so it's entirely reasonable and understandable that Brexiteers stick doggedly to their guns. In fact, it's vital that they do, because if they don't and Brexit isn't delivered, then our parliamentary democratic system will lie in tatters, and the consequences of that will be a national catastrophe that will dwarf any outcome regarding Brexit. And who knows where - or to what - that will lead. One thing's for sure, almost certainly it will be infinitely worse than a no-deal Brexit.

IMO, the whole debate has gone beyond Brexit. It's not really about that anymore. It's morphed into whether or not we have a functioning government and democracy that is fit for purpose in which everyone can trust and put their faith in. If we lose that - and we're perilously close to doing so IMO - then we'll all be up poo creek in a barbed wire boat without a paddle.
Tim.

Well, you won the referendum with 52% of the vote so coming 52% out of the EU seems fair dinkum

 

[timsk]

. . . a multi-layered abomination of quicksand into which everybody is sinking. . .

Another great post cant' - thank you. And what a fabulous turn of phrase - I'd like to pinch it if I may?! I wonder, are you a professional journalist, author or writer?

 

[0007]

Good stuff from Cantagril @ #8983 and Timsk @ #8982. The paradox is that democracy supposedly enables the best outcome by everybody having their say; yet history shows that progress or change is only made with strong/autocratic leadership. At the moment in UK it appears that we have the worst aspects of democracy coupled to zero leadership. No wonder it's a mess!

 

[cantagril]

Another great post cant' - thank you. And what a fabulous turn of phrase - I'd like to pinch it if I may?! I wonder, are you a professional journalist, author or writer?

Why Sir, you say the kindest things. Decidedly, I am all a-blush.

As for me being a hack. I woz but no longer. These days, translation and writing are part of what I laughably call my "living" but it's really really really dull stuff for the most part. The opportunity to anonymously post contentious crap on T2W instead of grinding out another page of someone else's drivel is difficult to resist and anyway, I think everyone would agree that one's own drivel always makes so much more sense.

 

[Signalcalc]

Our particular brand of pseudo-democracy depends very much on NOT seeing things in a completely binary way and it is precisely this inefficiency which has given us a fairly long run of relative political stability.

I believe that you have left out the word 'transparency' in this statement. We are presented with democracy as our govts would like us to see it. For a long time now it is well known that all is not as it seems, hypocrisy, deceit and lies have played a major part in the relative political stability, however if the foundations of that veneer of stability are made of sand, then sooner or later it will collapse to be re-built into something else.

No point having stability based on a lack of transparency, our leaders are failing to lead us, they have removed themselves from the ordinary lives of citizens through a lack of basic honesty, now they have been found out, citizens want to take control and install fresh leadership.

 

[cantagril]

I believe that you have left out the word 'transparency' in this statement. We are presented with democracy as our govts would like us to see it. For a long time now it is well known that all is not as it seems, hypocrisy, deceit and lies have played a major part in the relative political stability, however if the foundations of that veneer of stability are made of sand, then sooner or later it will collapse to be re-built into something else.

No point having stability based on a lack of transparency, our leaders are failing to lead us, they have removed themselves from the ordinary lives of citizens through a lack of basic honesty, now they have been found out, citizens want to take control and install fresh leadership.

Umm, yes indeed, which is why I referred to "pseudo-democracy".....

Whether the sheep will overturn the rule of the shepherds is an interesting idea to contemplate but an earlier Animal Farm shows where that one leads.

 

[cantagril]

I believe that you have left out the word 'transparency' in this statement. We are presented with democracy as our govts would like us to see it. For a long time now it is well known that all is not as it seems, hypocrisy, deceit and lies have played a major part in the relative political stability, however if the foundations of that veneer of stability are made of sand, then sooner or later it will collapse to be re-built into something else.

No point having stability based on a lack of transparency, our leaders are failing to lead us, they have removed themselves from the ordinary lives of citizens through a lack of basic honesty, now they have been found out, citizens want to take control and install fresh leadership.

For those interested in the mildly arcane, one of the less well-known works of that other, much superior Blair, is his essay "Politics and the English Language" which was published just after the war shortly after Animal Farm but before 1984. It's not a political rant, despite the title, and is worth the read for anyone who wants to write anything very much at all.

 

[Signalcalc]

Umm, yes indeed, which is why I referred to "pseudo-democracy".....

Whether the sheep will overturn the rule of the shepherds is an interesting idea to contemplate but an earlier Animal Farm shows where that one leads.

I have a bit of an issue with the (what seems to be common) references to the Nazi’s when talking about a change of leadership. If we have been living in an (albeit hidden until recently) form of dictatorship led by liblabcon for the last 70 years, then we haven’t really moved away from a totalitarian form of government. We have rid ourselves of the murderous intent amongst citizens for sure, but all the while the elites having been building their empires on the backs of tax payers, the deaths of many military personnel and countless civilians, nicely wrapped in the name of Western democracy with absolutely no signs of it changing.

So the reality appears to be that the murderous intent remains with the leadership, whilst they are telling us it is for our own good.

The discovery of Saudi oil has exacerbated Saudis need for territorial gain and we need to protect ourselves from foreign religious influence, but our governments have wrongly encouraged that influence and this is playing a large part in creating the current sentiment, the EU is a stalwart of implementing the policies that enable it to happen.

And if we haven’t in reality moved away from a dictatorship then we can’t possibly be moving towards an Animal Farm scenario if we are already living through it.

I see regime change in the UK as a move away from the totalitarianism links with the past, ridding ourselves of the EU is one of those major links to be broken.

We need to ‘modernise’ our Western democracies, not cling to old structures that have stayed with us since WW2.