Brexit and the Consequences

[Atilla]

We are probably now at the closest to a no deal Brexit as we have ever come.
Tonight's news of stalled talks from Brussels, hardly moved the pound at all.
Just a little price blip.
This makes me wonder if the worst case scenario for the gbp is now priced in?

If so then it must make sense that now is the time to start slowly building a long position in the gbp, no?

There is much positive talk. So in the short term I'd agree with you.

Extension to negotiations have raised hopes of a move towards some kind of deal.

Also extension to the transition period. The one Davis said UK doesn't need and if EU asked for it we might accept to be kind.

However, Parliament is so finely balanced much like a Mehico stand-off no one wants to bring our Wonderful Dancing Queen down off her stage. No one but the Labour party that is.

I'd caution the fact that it has come off 1.32 to be a little concerning as well though. Not out of the woods just yet.

Tough call Brexit and the pound??? :whistling

 

[counter_violent]

More backsliding

Here we go. So predictable and Nigel is not happy.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1...U-Theresa-May-European-Union-Nigel-Farage-ECJ

I wouldn't be at all surprised if all the letters go in this week.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45897253

 

[counter_violent]

There is much positive talk. So in the short term I'd agree with you.

Extension to negotiations have raised hopes of a move towards some kind of deal.

Also extension to the transition period. The one Davis said UK doesn't need and if EU asked for it we might accept to be kind.

However, Parliament is so finely balanced much like a Mehico stand-off no one wants to bring our Wonderful Dancing Queen down off her stage. No one but the Labour party that is.

I'd caution the fact that it has come off 1.32 to be a little concerning as well though. Not out of the woods just yet.

Tough call Brexit and the pound??? :whistling

I don't suppose you have noticed that the Euro is sliding more than the pound.

 

[Jason101]

There is much positive talk. So in the short term I'd agree with you.

Extension to negotiations have raised hopes of a move towards some kind of deal.

Also extension to the transition period. The one Davis said UK doesn't need and if EU asked for it we might accept to be kind.

However, Parliament is so finely balanced much like a Mehico stand-off no one wants to bring our Wonderful Dancing Queen down off her stage. No one but the Labour party that is.

I'd caution the fact that it has come off 1.32 to be a little concerning as well though. Not out of the woods just yet.

Tough call Brexit and the pound??? :whistling

Sorry I just don't see the positive talk.
But if there is positive talk, then great gbp up.
If there's a crash out with no deal or a general election I just don't think we have much further to fall.
After all what the markets dislike the most is uncertainty.

I don't suppose you have noticed that the Euro is sliding more than the pound.

That is what I am thinking, the Euro has Italian problems that are not going away any time soon and should continue the decline of the Euro.
And the pound has stopped responding bearishly to bad brexit news.

I don't believe the latter is just as a result of the former, I reckon the market might be priced in for a potential no deal now.

I'm not even sure that a snap election would sink the pound to much against the Euro, as this is already a well known possibility.

 

[counter_violent]

Sorry I just don't see the positive talk.
But if there is positive talk, then great gbp up.
If there's a crash out with no deal or a general election I just don't think we have much further to fall.
After all what the markets dislike the most is uncertainty.



That is what I am thinking, the Euro has Italian problems that are not going away any time soon and should continue the decline of the Euro.
And the pound has stopped responding bearishly to bad brexit news.

I don't believe the latter is just as a result of the former, I reckon the market might be priced in for a potential no deal now.

I'm not even sure that a snap election would sink the pound to much against the Euro, as this is already a well known possibility.

It's a tough one to call for sure, but on balance I think the UK has more shocks to come especially given that all sides are digging their heels in and hardening their positions.

Might be an idea to run through the various scenarios.

 

[Jason101]

It's a tough one to call for sure, but on balance I think the UK has more shocks to come especially given that all sides are digging their heels in and hardening their positions.

Might be an idea to run through the various scenarios.

Lol, I wouldn't want to go all in now.
Maybe starting off with 10-15% of a full size position (to average in, not average down.)
or..
Use the next shock waves as a better starting point (say a vote of no confidence or general election.)

 

[Atilla]

Sorry I just don't see the positive talk.
But if there is positive talk, then great gbp up.
If there's a crash out with no deal or a general election I just don't think we have much further to fall.
After all what the markets dislike the most is uncertainty.



That is what I am thinking, the Euro has Italian problems that are not going away any time soon and should continue the decline of the Euro.
And the pound has stopped responding bearishly to bad brexit news.

I don't believe the latter is just as a result of the former, I reckon the market might be priced in for a potential no deal now.

I'm not even sure that a snap election would sink the pound to much against the Euro, as this is already a well known possibility.

The talks and extensions of transmission period is seen as positive that a deal can be made.

All up in the air. Agree about more shocls and upsets ahead.

Elections Id see as positive raising hopes of over turning brexit but even then likely to be a roller coaster ride.

 

[Jason101]

The talks and extensions of transmission period is seen as positive that a deal can be made.

All up in the air. Agree about more shocls and upsets ahead.

Elections Id see as positive raising hopes of over turning brexit but even then likely to be a roller coaster ride.

I'd agree with all your points there Atilla

 

[Signalcalc]

Does it mean this thread is extended?

 

[Atilla]

Does it mean this thread is extended?

LOL

Let's negotiate and talk about it?

What you offering?

 

[counter_violent]

LOL

Let's negotiate and talk about it?

What you offering?

More abuse, riots, what's your preference?

 

[Signalcalc]

LOL

Let's negotiate and talk about it?

What you offering?

In the true spirit of Antifa, I can offer a blood soaked, signed copy of THE baseball bat used on every anti-Brexit demonstration thus far.

Alternatively a friction-less border between Brighton & Hove and the rest of the UK, with a special corridor to London and Brussels, no border checks, just electronic tagging for residents of the special administration area, stray too far in to the UK and the baseball team will scramble.

 

[ChristianXavier]

Well, it is good that besides all Brexit problems pound has finally started recovering.

 

[Signalcalc]

 

[Splitlink]

We are probably now at the closest to a no deal Brexit as we have ever come.
Tonight's news of stalled talks from Brussels, hardly moved the pound at all.
Just a little price blip.
This makes me wonder if the worst case scenario for the gbp is now priced in?

If so then it must make sense that now is the time to start slowly building a long position in the gbp, no?

Are you asking this lot?

 

[Jason101]

Are you asking this lot?

Absolutely Split, The less enthusiasm they have for a trading idea, the more likely I am to take the trade.

 

[counter_violent]

Good film, explains much.

I'm minded of my time as an apprentice where my mentor had previously served in the Middle East as RAF ground crew. He had nothing good to say about the region and that the inhabitants were just tribal, ungovernable, untrustworthy, backward rabble. Obviously, I had no understanding nor interest in his utterances back then, but time has a funny way of crystalysing and clarifying truth and fiction.

I can understand why the young cannot arrive at correct, logical conclusions (no life experiences to draw on), but I can only imagine that some of our elders who ought to know better, have simply not mixed with the right people or perhaps not searched for the right information themselves. Perhaps they put too much faith in the now discredited MSM. An easy mistake to make given that we ought to be able to trust our political leaders.

Was there ever a time I wonder when MSM was not just propaganda!

Btw, all you have succeeded in doing is convince me that I need to start my own country. Anyone up for it?

https://www.yenisafak.com/en/world/...ed-then-dismembered-while-still-alive-3463764

Hmm, a sticky end indeed.

 

[Atilla]

More abuse, riots, what's your preference?

Sounds like you are a bit of a closet Labour supporter to me.

My preference is to eat less meat and more veggie stuff. Thanks

 

[Atilla]

In the true spirit of Antifa, I can offer a blood soaked, signed copy of THE baseball bat used on every anti-Brexit demonstration thus far.

Alternatively a friction-less border between Brighton & Hove and the rest of the UK, with a special corridor to London and Brussels, no border checks, just electronic tagging for residents of the special administration area, stray too far in to the UK and the baseball team will scramble.

Well if that's a baseball bat in your hands I can only imagine you are not happy to negotiate with me and simply offering punishment and beatings.

I didn't have you down as an EU man but I think I see where you are coming from.


So what are you 'really' offering me then? Go on make me an offer I can't refuse otherwise I'm walking!

 

[Atilla]

Is this numpty the best you can muster.

What a dork.

Brexiteers made loadsa promises they can't deliver.

Blind as a bat dimwit.

So you go to referendum, promise the world to the people and then claim promises broken.

Have you notice he simply says broken promises without outlining what they are?


Have access to the common market but not recognise Treaty of Rome or ECJ is just not happening. It's total and utter B0LL0X!

Take back control of our money???

We do have control of our money. Membership costs money. Leave the market then don't pay. What you want to be member of a club and because we import more than export you don't want to pay fees??? Who's blinking world of rules do you Brexiteers live in?

UK benefits from collective bargaining and trade agreements EU has with many other bodies around the world. Who's gooing to pay to support that infrastructure. All the standards rules and regulations demanded and introduced by UK, who do you think is going to enforce, govern and manage those rules. Numpties aren't aware Gove is talking about raising animal husbandry rules and regs to raise standards. That means more regulation and directives from the UK. Goes totally unpicked and unchallenged. His fecked up Education and wants to do the same to Farming. Bunch of freaks.

If you don't wish to be party to those agreements get out and make your own deals and setup up your own governing costly bodies.

Brexiteers haven't a clue. Living in cloud cuckooo land. Close your eyes and wish away.