Brexit and the Consequences

[counter_violent]

Vince Cable has already dismissed Farron as an idiot for going against the will of the people.

Correction.

Incoherent rambling idiot.

 

[Atilla]

Vince Cable has already dismissed Farron as an idiot for going against the will of the people.

That's his opinion and a bit of a shame really.

I do think the people should reflect on what a Brexit means and will look like however.

The show hasn't started yet? Research funding is drying up and there are moves to attract research centres and brains to Europe.

It's going to get awfully ugly soon. Trouble finding the right skills and people to assemble a team right now.

There is also a war of fines starting between the US and EU. Yanks have gone ape sh!t with their penalties. Good to see EU responding.

I thought it was naive of Theresa May asking US to back off trying to take UK finance market share.

 

[Trader333]

It's going to get awfully ugly soon.

How do you know it will as most of what was predicted so far has been wrong ?

 

[Atilla]

How do you know it will as most of what was predicted so far has been wrong ?

None of the promises have been delivered either.

What we have had is;

1. Interest rate reduction
2. More QE
3. 10+ % fall in sterling
4. 15 page letter from the Japanese PM about securing their motor industry access to the EU
5. Moves on Euro Clearing
6. Theresa May asking US finance institutions not to encroach on UK market share
7. Reduction on UK science funding
8. Possibility of WTO or FTA trade agreement
9. Much business uncertainty
10. Even Lloyds of London (just this mornign) indicating move to EU


So far it's Business As Usual with no change other than a few headlines.

Government still trying to assemble team with experience to negotiate Brexit.

Article 50 pending February.

Civil Service scratching head to find resources.


If you are referring to Osborn's outlandish scare mongering and a premature crises budget etc no that hasn't happened and I'm glad to see the back of him. Never amounted to much other than coming from some privileged back ground.

I did like his new initiative though and he looks a better fit on the back benches than in government.

 

[Trader333]

I am not aware of any promises as it was not an election campaign so no side was able to make anything other than conjecture. All I am asking is how you know what you have claimed. You are good at listing sources for why something may happen but then in todays internet driven world it is possible to find evidence for any belief or view on anything.

No one really knows what will happen so all these continued predictions or using some data as evidence for what may happen is pointless in my view and it applies to both sides.

What doesnt help is this continued "I told you so" attitude that is keeping the UK divided and that in itself is more likely to damage the UK than anything else.

 

[Atilla]

I am not aware of any promises as it was not an election campaign so no side was able to make anything other than conjecture. All I am asking is how you know what you have claimed. You are good at listing sources for why something may happen but then in todays internet driven world it is possible to find evidence for any belief or view on anything.

No one really knows what will happen so all these continued predictions or using some data as evidence for what may happen is pointless in my view and it applies to both sides.

What doesnt help is this continued "I told you so" attitude that is keeping the UK divided and that in itself is more likely to damage the UK than anything else.

Right now there are moves in place some of which we know and I'm sure good more we don't with big corporations and governments planning their exit strategies and to suggest no one really knows lets wait and see what happens is not a productive response but pretty lame.

It's not about we've won the argument let's get on with it. What exactly is IT? Get on with what? Brexit means Brexit???

I very much doubt the EU or the UK will be shaking hands and kissing cheeks much longer.

How do I know it's going to get ugly you ask?

Divorce is never clean!!! Each side will be out to screw the other.

 

[Atilla]

I am not aware of any promises as it was not an election campaign so no side was able to make anything other than conjecture. All I am asking is how you know what you have claimed. You are good at listing sources for why something may happen but then in todays internet driven world it is possible to find evidence for any belief or view on anything.

No one really knows what will happen so all these continued predictions or using some data as evidence for what may happen is pointless in my view and it applies to both sides.

What doesnt help is this continued "I told you so" attitude that is keeping the UK divided and that in itself is more likely to damage the UK than anything else.

Sobering read!

Brexit Bulletin: Banks Throw in the Towel on Clearing

 

[sminicooper]

Economists - don't ya just love'em?

“Not a single serious economist does not think Brexit will be bad for the economy” was the message from George Osborne when he cited the OECD, IMF and the OBR to back up his arguments that Britain would require an emergency budget and that there would be a worldwide economic shock if Britain voted to Brexit. Yesterday the OECD said it got it got the recession forecast wrong and the ONS confirmed none of the latest data suggests the recession that was predicted by 71% of City economists after the referendum vote. That is worse than astrology hence the Sun’s cracked crystal ball. It is actually worse than just flipping a coin.

All this proves once again that economists are as prone to fashion as any other artists. Economic forecasting is not a mathematical hard science, despite the complicated formulas of which they are so fond. It is a question of judgement. Another area which similarly has too many variables to forecast with confidence yet has almost unanimity among those who claim expertise in the subject is “climate science”. The expert practioners in this area also predict doom and disaster. Do you think they could be related?

More here: http://order-order.com/ 22 Sep

 

[Trader333]

Divorce is never clean!!! Each side will be out to screw the other.

Maybe in your experience that is the case but I know of plenty where that was not the case and where the post divorce relationship was much better than when married and in any event the UK was not married to the EU. However, if it was a marriage and one party was being as controlling and dictatorial as was the case here then it would certainly be grounds for a divorce. Many marriages stay together for exactly the reasons you are stating, ie basically money and all that happens is that both parties end up in a much worse situation than if they took the pain earlier and separated.

Economic grounds are not the reason most people wanted to leave and yet this is the main case you put forward. If you feel so incensed about what has happened then why not go into politics and become an MP as nothing you, myself or anyone else posts here is going to make any difference.

 

[forker]

The clearing business probably brings in approximately 500 million annually (top estimate total revenue) . This is not to be confused by the value of clearing transactions which are in billions. Given that the UK gdp is roughly 2.8 trillion dollars, losing the tax and employment portion isn't exactly a train smash. The clearing business employs about 700 people from what I have read and there are 3 operators. I'm not saying it's nothing but it isn't exactly a major blow in the grand scheme of things.

 

[timsk]

. . . It's not about we've won the argument let's get on with it. What exactly is IT? Get on with what? Brexit means Brexit??? . . .

Hi Atilla,
Post referendum, a recurring theme from the remain camp has been the very questions you pose here. This has surprised me and amused me in equal measure. As a leave supporter, I struggle to understand what it is that the remainers are struggling to understand? 'Brexit means Brexit' is very simple: we (the U.K) are going to leave the EU so we can plough our own furrow without the unelected, irremovable and undemocratic EU elite dictating to us how we must run our affairs. Simples! That's it - nothing difficult to understand there. Needless to say, the detail will take time to work out and the preposterous criticism of the remain campaign is that this hasn't all been worked out in advance. It's preposterous because there's no way - realistically - that it could have been (worked out in advance). The referendum was about principle. The detail about how the principle is executed will unfold over time. Be patient, safe in the knowledge that the divorce will happen and, when it does, just as Paul (Trader333) outlines above, both parties will get on much better as a result. The EU doesn't know that yet - but we do. Well, 52% of us at least!

Tim.

 

[Atilla]

Hi Atilla,
Post referendum, a recurring theme from the remain camp has been the very questions you pose here. This has surprised me and amused me in equal measure. As a leave supporter, I struggle to understand what it is that the remainers are struggling to understand? 'Brexit means Brexit' is very simple: we (the U.K) are going to leave the EU so we can plough our own furrow without the unelected, irremovable and undemocratic EU elite dictating to us how we must run our affairs. Simples! That's it - nothing difficult to understand there. Needless to say, the detail will take time to work out and the preposterous criticism of the remain campaign is that this hasn't all been worked out in advance. It's preposterous because there's no way - realistically - that it could have been (worked out in advance). The referendum was about principle. The detail about how the principle is executed will unfold over time. Be patient, safe in the knowledge that the divorce will happen and, when it does, just as Paul (Trader333) outlines above, both parties will get on much better as a result. The EU doesn't know that yet - but we do. Well, 52% of us at least!

Tim.

Hope you are right Tim!

A little like holding a losing trade and hoping, I like to cut my loses from a wrong turn or move and thus will soldier on if I may with all your kind patience in aborting this Brexit.

This thread can play it self out. The Brexiters have been a sore on many a Tory PM and reluctant party quibbling and mocking all the good work the EU does, has done with their crisps, cucumber and banana shapes and sizes.

Now the boot's on the other foot, they can have a taste of their own medicine. This is democracy and let the rule of Parliament play it self out. I support Tim Fallon and it certainly will be interesting to see what happens to Tory and Labour votes in the next general elections.

Brexit isn't over, let alone started yet. It's going to be a long road. Strap your selves in, as this ain't going to be plain sailing more like taking the bull by the horns. Right now Brexit means Brexit is taking the bull by the tail but that's just my opinion.

 

[Atilla]

Another Brexit consequence is likely to be US TTIP trade agreement with EU which is currently in stormy waters.

One can't help thinking we have tit for tat fines being administered between the two blocks.

US to EU - BNP Paribas $9 bn (paid)
EU to US - Apple - $14.5 bn (in dispute)
US to EU - Deutsche Bank $14 bn (in dispute)

Anyhow, with Brexit, nothing to stop UK signing up to it in the name of free international trade.

UK (David Cameron) was in favour of TTIP. Supposedly it will boost trade. We get to eat lots of GM food stuffs and whilst gaining freedom for our Parliament, then allow big corporations the right to sue Parliament. :-0:-0

 

[barjon]

How do you know it will as most of what was predicted so far has been wrong ?

The effects won't really show through (for good or ill) for twenty years or so. Until then one can just ponder.

Certainly, for a country that sacrificed its manufacturing heritage at the altar of financial services the risks seem quite stark, but you never know.

 

[counter_violent]

 

[Sonicscooter]

That's his opinion and a bit of a shame really.

I do think the people should reflect on what a Brexit means and will look like however.

The show hasn't started yet? Research funding is drying up and there are moves to attract research centres and brains to Europe.

It's going to get awfully ugly soon. Trouble finding the right skills and people to assemble a team right now.

There is also a war of fines starting between the US and EU. Yanks have gone ape sh!t with their penalties. Good to see EU responding.

I thought it was naive of Theresa May asking US to back off trying to take UK finance market share.

Hell, it's now knocking on October, the leaves are starting to turn brown, Brexit was in JUNE, and you're still waffling on...........you seriously need to meet my ex-wife........

 

[Oscar Reed]

None of the promises have been delivered either.

What we have had is;

1. Interest rate reduction
2. More QE
3. 10+ % fall in sterling
4. 15 page letter from the Japanese PM about securing their motor industry access to the EU
5. Moves on Euro Clearing
6. Theresa May asking US finance institutions not to encroach on UK market share
7. Reduction on UK science funding
8. Possibility of WTO or FTA trade agreement
9. Much business uncertainty
10. Even Lloyds of London (just this mornign) indicating move to EU


So far it's Business As Usual with no change other than a few headlines.

Government still trying to assemble team with experience to negotiate Brexit.

Article 50 pending February.

Civil Service scratching head to find resources.


If you are referring to Osborn's outlandish scare mongering and a premature crises budget etc no that hasn't happened and I'm glad to see the back of him. Never amounted to much other than coming from some privileged back ground.

I did like his new initiative though and he looks a better fit on the back benches than in government.

Which one are you?

 

[Atilla]

You lot and Brexit Boris camp in the words of BBG - are all 'b' slapped down.


Brexit Bulletin: Boris Speaks Up. Boris Is Slapped Down


I think once the proper cost benefit analysis is done and the Civil Service get to scrutinise the net gains/losses to UK National interest, I very much doubt Theresa May will be able to bring her self round to accepting Brexit without the Business Case. The whole approach is wrong from the start.

Benjamin Franklin supposedly once said, “If you fail to plan, you are planning to fail.”

Sir Winston Churchill is credited with another, oft repeated, saying: “Those who fail to learn from the past are doomed to repeat it.”


If there is a net benefit gain and Business Case adds up as prepared and undersigned by the Civil Service (AND not politicians), then I will give the Brexit my full 100%. Until then, will continue to campaign against.

 

[timsk]

. . . Sir Winston Churchill is credited with another, oft repeated, saying: “Those who fail to learn from the past are doomed to repeat it.”. . .

Quite so, and it's for this very reason why most of us voted to leave. Were Sir WC still alive today, there's little doubt that he would have done the same!

 

[Atilla]

Quite so, and it's for this very reason why most of us voted to leave. Were Sir WC still alive today, there's little doubt that he would have done the same!

You are assuming he wouldn't have learnt either, much like your good self!

Most of his life was war. He was a timely much needed good war leader but not so good in peace time was he?

Most of your life if not all has been in peace? You should learn as I'm shure he would have.