Brewski's Leverage Abuse

[brewski1984]

Boring, I'm going to sleep. My trigger for getting into a trade tomorrow will be to just buy at what ever time I wake up

 

[brewski1984]

I'm awake and bored, didn't like the look of either dow or dax so I've bought usd/jpy in pure gambling fashion. Not looking to make a fortune on this one, just hoping I can get a few quid to be able to get a wider stop later on

 

[FXX]

You do realise that trump spoke down the usd on Friday and there are several banks suggesting shorting usdjpy as are analysts. Anyway, just an fyi

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[brewski1984]

You do realise that trump spoke down the usd on Friday and there are several banks suggesting shorting usdjpy as are analysts. Anyway, just an fyi

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That doesn't mean it's going to go down.

Do you reckon they are recommending that on purpose so that while ordinary people start shorting it, the banks/trump are the ones buying the positions up at cheaper prices?

 

[FXX]

Do you reckon they are recommending that on purpose so that while ordinary people start shorting it, the banks/trump are the ones buying the positions up at cheaper prices?

Doubtful. These are reliable sources on news feeds you will find at institutions.

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[brewski1984]

Doubtful. These are reliable sources on news feeds you will find at institutions.

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With all due respect, you can't believe anything you read anywhere. There's not a single person in this world that wants to help you win money. For every analyst out there that says sell there's one that says buy and they all have their own selfish intentions for doing so. I wouldn't short usd just because Trump or Reuters tells me it's a good idea.

 

[FXX]

With all due respect, you can't believe anything you read anywhere. There's not a single person in this world that wants to help you win money. For every analyst out there that says sell there's one that says buy and they all have their own selfish intentions for doing so. I wouldn't short usd just because Trump or Reuters tells me it's a good idea.

With due respect, these are premium news terminals costing me almost £200 a month and found in investment banks, some exchanges, and other professional institutions. I know this because I have worked at many of them. If the information was useless and deceptive then why would any trading business take it seriously. You really don't understand this side to the business and clearly holding a baseless belief.

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[brewski1984]

With due respect, these are premium news terminals costing me almost £200 a month and found in investment banks, some exchanges, and other professional institutions. I know this because I have worked at many of them. If the information was useless and deceptive then why would any trading business take it seriously. You really don't understand this side to the business and clearly holding a baseless belief.

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So you're paying £200 a month to get stock tips from Donald Trump? #Bantz


On a serious note, can you please share with me some information as to how that side of the business works? Why do trading businesses exist and how do they make their money?

 

[FXX]

So you're paying £200 a month to get stock tips from Donald Trump? #Bantz


On a serious note, can you please share with me some information as to how that side of the business works? Why do trading businesses exist and how do they make their money?

Your assumption that people trade off analyst tips is wrong. This is the biggest myth when it comes to trading news next to the belief that institutions feed wrong information to gain better pricing (illegal). Trading using analyst digested information has nothing to do with tips, opinions, or personal bias. These guys are sourcing information off news feeds from reputable institutions like Reuters and Bloomberg and follow people like trump on twitter because he does move markets.

I have worked at large trading institutions, exchanges, and a hedge fund. What they don't do is look at a chart and place a trade based on a parrten or any technical information for that matter. The larger institutions employ teams that price test trading models to define real-time feedback into risk and profit as well as supply compliance reporting to regulators. Every institution i have worked at base their trading ideas off fundamental information and financial models to manage their risk. Hedge funds just do pure news trading with a team of analysts assisting the information flow. I get the feeling you are being sarcastic with your request on how the business works so I will leave it there.





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[brewski1984]

Your assumption that people trade off analyst tips is wrong. This is the biggest myth when it comes to trading news next to the belief that institutions feed wrong information to gain better pricing (illegal). Trading using analyst digested information has nothing to do with tips, opinions, or personal bias. These guys are sourcing information off news feeds from reputable institutions like Reuters and Bloomberg and follow people like trump on twitter because he does move markets.

I have worked at large trading institutions, exchanges, and a hedge fund. What they don't do is look at a chart and place a trade based on a parrten or any technical information for that matter. The larger institutions employ teams that price test trading models to define real-time feedback into risk and profit as well as supply comiance reporting to regulators. Every institution i have worked at base their trading ideas off fundamental information and financial models to manage their risk. Hedge funds just do pure news trading with a team of analysts assisting the information flow. I get the feeling you are being sarcastic with your request on how the business works so I will leave it there.





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I wasn't meaning to sound sarcastic, I have absolutely no idea how any of these businesses work. I just assume that at the basic level, they are all only there to get people's money into the markets and then extract it for themselves. For this reason, I ignore all news/tips.

 

[brewski1984]

I'm in on Dax as well now £10pp from around 12500, screenshot a bit later

 

[FXX]

I wasn't meaning to sound sarcastic, I have absolutely no idea how any of these businesses work. I just assume that at the basic level, they are all only there to get people's money into the markets and then extract it for themselves. For this reason, I ignore all news/tips.

That would be illegal here and in the states, i can't speak of other countries but their businesses trading in UK and USA markets would be subject to regulatory control. The FSA for example have the following clauses that prevent this:

Section 89 makes it an offence if a person:-

- makes a statement which is false or misleading in a material respect, being reckless as to whether it is, or dishonestly conceals any material facts whether in connection with a statement made by P or otherwise.

All the analysts at these places and especially the ones on the premium feeds are CFA certified which makes them obligated to conduct their profession in accordance with rules that prevent them from misleading and will result in them losing that certification and their job. If you look at a site like jobsite and search cfa you will see amongst roles like fund\portfolio management is analyst roles where they are required to have this certification.

Hopefully this helps you remove the false pretence of misleading analyst data.

 

[brewski1984]

That would be illegal here and in the states, i can't speak of other countries but their businesses trading in UK and USA markets would be subject to regulatory control. The FSA for example have the following clauses that prevent this:

Section 89 makes it an offence if a person:-

- makes a statement which is false or misleading in a material respect, being reckless as to whether it is, or dishonestly conceals any material facts whether in connection with a statement made by P or otherwise.

All the analysts at these places and especially the ones on the premium feeds are CFA certified which makes them obligated to conduct their profession in accordance with rules that prevent them from misleading and will result in them losing that certification and their job. If you look at a site like jobsite and search cfa you will see amongst roles like fund\portfolio management is analyst roles where they are required to have this certification.

Hopefully this helps you remove the false pretence of misleading analyst data.

I don't mean that these places would give wrong information on purpose with a view to profiting from it as if they were scammers. I just mean that all information can be manipulated and news stories can be biased in order to get people to put their money into markets. The recent crypto mania is the perfect example of this. Plus also, Trump knows full well his words/tweets have an impact on the market so do you think he would have gained from that somehow?

 

[FXX]

I don't mean that these places would give wrong information on purpose with a view to profiting from it as if they were scammers. I just mean that all information can be manipulated and news stories can be biased in order to get people to put their money into markets. The recent crypto mania is the perfect example of this. Plus also, Trump knows full well his words/tweets have an impact on the market so do you think he would have gained from that somehow?

crypto is unregulated and can't be placed in the same bucket as other financial markets.


Sure information can be manipulated but you wont find it in regulated businesses or businesses selling services to regulated businesses. When it is found those involved will be fired, lose relevant certifications, liable for a fine (you have to sign documents making you liable in the event you are found out), and criminal proceedings.

 

[brewski1984]

crypto is unregulated and can't be placed in the same bucket as other financial markets.


Sure information can be manipulated but you wont find it in regulated businesses or businesses selling services to regulated businesses. When it is found those involved will be fired, lose relevant certifications, liable for a fine (you have to sign documents making you liable in the event you are found out), and criminal proceedings.

I understand what you're saying, Reuters etc are not allowed to invent news stories that didn't happen and if they do, they will be shut down. They reported on Trump talking the dollar down as you put it and if they make their money from subscriptions of people wanting that news then that's fine - they've done their job fairly.

What I wonder is, why am I being told that news? Why did Trump talk the dollar down and what does he stand to gain from it? Is he lying? Why are all the analysts telling the average joe to short usd and what do they stand to gain from it? From this point of view, you can't really trust anything you read.

 

[FXX]

What I wonder is, why am I being told that news? Why did Trump talk the dollar down and what does he stand to gain from it? Is he lying? Why are all the analysts telling the average joe to short usd and what do they stand to gain from it? From this point of view, you can't really trust anything you read.

It is in the interest of the US economy to have a weaker dollar to be competitive. But to be a level playing field the Fed are obligated to be impartial to political influences. That being said the market only cares about information that can affect risk and if Trump says something that can affect this the market reacts as it did on Friday and many other occasions he has said things that move markets. It isn't a case of listening to an analyst saying short USD but rather a case of diving into the reasoning. In this case it was Trump but it was also inclusive of him saying he is ready to place tariffs on all Chinese trade and this lead to a risk off tone and Yen is a safe haven currency so you have a double bullet for market moving info. Just look at the chart for Friday and decide for yourself if news is relevant.

 

[pigbear]

I don't mean that these places would give wrong information on purpose with a view to profiting from it as if they were scammers. I just mean that all information can be manipulated and news stories can be biased in order to get people to put their money into markets. The recent crypto mania is the perfect example of this. Plus also, Trump knows full well his words/tweets have an impact on the market so do you think he would have gained from that somehow?

Anyone remember sub prime fiasco where there was conflict of interest. Yes Goldman Sachs were encouraging investors to buy the product while the other arm was shorting it.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/apr/11/goldman-sachs-2008-financial-crisis-mortagage-backed-securities

 

[FXX]

Anyone remember sub prime fiasco where there was conflict of interest. Yes Goldman Sachs were encouraging investors to buy the product while the other arm was shorting it.

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...-financial-crisis-mortagage-backed-securities

Yep and it paid 5lbn fine for that. Since then regulation has changed a lot to catch this sort of behavior.

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[brewski1984]

Out of Dax at breakeven, it never really went anywhere anyway. I've doubled up on usd/jpy now £20pp so we will see where this goes, looking to double up again.

 

[brewski1984]

Out of usd/jpy for breakeven again, I'm back in on the Dow looking to load up. I'll get screenshot up soon