BP...should i go long..??

[counter_violent]

Disagree.
This will provide the analysts with the ability to start putting a value on the company.
Which up until now has been nigh impossible.

Prey tell how analysts can arrive at values to unquantifiable problems and with particular reference to future unknown liabilities.

Every optimistic post so far on this thread has been 100% wrong.

 

[Black Swan]

Prey tell how analysts can arrive at values to unquantifiable problems and with particular reference to future unknown liabilities.

Every optimistic post so far on this thread has been 100% wrong.

I reckon some of T2W members had bought with divi in mind...can be a sound strat but can also make you look like a ..divvi...

 

[counter_violent]

I reckon some of T2W members had bought with divi in mind...can be a sound strat but can also make you look like a ..divvi...

Sure, under normal circumstances this would be very sensible.
However, trying to second guess what happens to a company in (possibly terminal) crisis is crazy.Bottom picking. Falling knives. Open ended liability.

 

[D70]

As per yesterdays trading where I saw BP stock exchange hands at 340p and 390p before we even got to 8:05am.... there clearly seems to be people on both sides of the market.

Just like the opinions on this thread.

 

[chilltrader]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/us_and_canada/10347166.stm

I guess BP chiefs will be lucky to come back home safely from the clutches of these barbaric, uncivilised c0wb0ys!

 

[Black Swan]

Sure, under normal circumstances this would be very sensible.
However, trying to second guess what happens to a company in (possibly terminal) crisis is crazy.Bottom picking. Falling knives. Open ended liability.

Watching some of the Hayward footage yesterday was sickening; no mention of Hallibrutal or Transocean, or the fact that Obama has issued in the region of 400 deep offshore drilling permits since he took office, iirc he wanted them as far away from the coastline which increased the drilling danger exponentially...DOH!! What a stitch up, as the republican stated last night it is a shakedown and exercise in blame and mis direction. Half of the businesses claiming for relief were probably fooked anyhow due to the recession, now they have a lifebelt in the form of BP shareholders..

I hope a huge Chinese Co takes over BP, sucks up all the oil offshore, and transports it back to China...🙂 Then the US military complex can accuse China of having WMD and take it off them....oh...er..'ang on..something wrong with that plan..

 

[chilltrader]

Watching some of the Hayward footage yesterday was sickening; no mention of Hallibrutal or Transocean, or the fact that Obama has issued in the region of 400 deep offshore drilling permits since he took office, iirc he wanted them as far away from the coastline which increased the drilling danger exponentially...DOH!! What a stitch up, as the republican stated last night it is a shakedown and exercise in blame and mis direction. Half of the businesses claiming for relief were probably fooked anyhow due to the recession, now they have a lifebelt in the form of BP shareholders..

I hope a huge Chinese Co takes over BP, sucks up all the oil offshore, and transports it back to China...🙂 Then the US military complex can accuse China of having WMD and take it off them....oh...er..'ang on..something wrong with that plan..

yep... something very wrong... if they as much as point towards China, the Chinese will nuke them off this planet... nothing much will remain anywhere anyway 😆

 

[counter_violent]

Watching some of the Hayward footage yesterday was sickening; no mention of Hallibrutal or Transocean, or the fact that Obama has issued in the region of 400 deep offshore drilling permits since he took office, iirc he wanted them as far away from the coastline which increased the drilling danger exponentially...DOH!! What a stitch up, as the republican stated last night it is a shakedown and exercise in blame and mis direction. Half of the businesses claiming for relief were probably fooked anyhow due to the recession, now they have a lifebelt in the form of BP shareholders..

I hope a huge Chinese Co takes over BP, sucks up all the oil offshore, and transports it back to China...🙂 Then the US military complex can accuse China of having WMD and take it off them....oh...er..'ang on..something wrong with that plan..

Yep I watched all of it. Theres something not quite right about politicians U S style. They kept asking the same unanswerable questions over again. You would thing they might get organised beforehand and sort out who was going to ask what. I've been in some contractual meetings before now....and they would run rings round those congressmen/ women lol. I thought Tony Hayward stayed remarkably composed throughout despite the fact that he had to attempt to answer the same questions 15 times.

 

[Black Swan]

Yep I watched all of it. Theres something not quite right about politicians U S style. They kept asking the same unanswerable questions over again. You would thing they might get organised beforehand and sort out who was going to ask what. I've been in some contractual meetings before now....and they would run rings round those congressmen/ women lol. I thought Tony Hayward stayed remarkably composed throughout despite the fact that he had to attempt to answer the same questions 15 times.

Saw this comment by a Cifer on the Guardian...doncha just love a *good* c. theory? I guess what he's driving at is it's all a set up in order to allow the US admin to confiscate/take control of all drilling...

Goldman Sachs dumped 44% of its shares in BP Oil during the first quarter of 2010 – shares that subsequently lost 36 percent of their value, equating to $96 million. The current chairman of Goldman Sachs is Bilderberg luminary Peter Sutherland, who is also the former chairman of British Petroleum.

Furthermore, as reported by the London Telegraph on June 5th, Tony Hayward, the current BP CEO sold £1.4 million of his shares in the fuel giant weeks before the spill.

On April 12th, just over one week before the Deepwater Horizon rig exploded, Halliburton, the world’s second largest oilfield services corporation, surprised some by acquiring Boots & Coots, a relatively small but vastly experienced oil well control company.

 

[pssonice]

Bohpal victims still suffer and die Bohpal victims still suffer and die Apr 13, 2006

what is the value of a disaster ?

 

[spreader_legger]

Its all orchestrated ..... someone is trying to bankrupt some BP shareholders ..... just like they did with Bear Sterns 😛

Saw this comment by a Cifer on the Guardian...doncha just love a *good* c. theory? I guess what he's driving at is it's all a set up in order to allow the US admin to confiscate/take control of all drilling...

Goldman Sachs dumped 44% of its shares in BP Oil during the first quarter of 2010 – shares that subsequently lost 36 percent of their value, equating to $96 million. The current chairman of Goldman Sachs is Bilderberg luminary Peter Sutherland, who is also the former chairman of British Petroleum.

Furthermore, as reported by the London Telegraph on June 5th, Tony Hayward, the current BP CEO sold £1.4 million of his shares in the fuel giant weeks before the spill.

On April 12th, just over one week before the Deepwater Horizon rig exploded, Halliburton, the world’s second largest oilfield services corporation, surprised some by acquiring Boots & Coots, a relatively small but vastly experienced oil well control company.

 

[cm-phil]

The real test will be if the $20 relief fund is a CAP and helps them prevent future litigation. The impact of this disaster still remains to be seen for a long time, and so it is very difficult to put a price tag on it.

Either way, it's a very speculative play. I think that regardless if you are long or short, there will be news that is both favorable (in which case you should sell) and unfavorable (in which case you should buy).

Should be very careful though! Bankruptcy or a buyout could be announced at anytime

 

[justtradin]

Sold some of BP jan 40puts I picked up at $2 for $14.50 last friday...BP

 

[cm-phil]

Nice! You might have been able to hold on a little longer for even more.. not entirely sure why BP is up today

 

[justtradin]

Nice! You might have been able to hold on a little longer for even more.. not entirely sure why BP is up today

rumor in bloomberg of majors looking to buy BP at drpressed prices.

I shorted BP (through puts)at 50 an then 39 then 34 then 33 ...something doesn't smell right but as I learned shorting FNM GM LEH and BSC the games are played by whipsaw players...

JT

 

[justtradin]

Nice! You might have been able to hold on a little longer for even more.. not entirely sure why BP is up today

rumor in bloomberg of majors looking to buy BP at depressed prices.

I shorted BP (through puts)at 50 an then 39 then 34 then 33 ...something doesn't smell right but as I learned shorting FNM GM LEH and BSC the games are played by whipsaw players...

JT

 

[Shanghai]

It's not my style to buy something like this but I do like the way the selling volume is drying up. That should reduce the selling pressure and may set things up for a bounce.

 

[justtradin]

It's not my style to buy something like this but I do like the way the selling volume is drying up. That should reduce the selling pressure and may set things up for a bounce.

Interesting point.

I have a long term trade in mind and I only scalp when I have an edge...so far I don't I have an edge....

My FNM short trade made 100X so I am patient w/ BP given the possibilities ahead.

More inclined to nibble at GS calls or MU calls.

JT

 

[Shanghai]

Interesting point.

I have a long term trade in mind and I only scalp when I have an edge...so far I don't I have an edge....

My FNM short trade made 100X so I am patient w/ BP given the possibilities ahead.

More inclined to nibble at GS calls or MU calls.

JT

It looks reasonable for a bounce but too early for a long term trade I would suggest as the daily trend is strongly down. Personally I would wait for a trend change before I took a long position. You may miss the early part of a move but its the safer option.

 

[Pento]

It looks reasonable for a bounce but too early for a long term trade I would suggest as the daily trend is strongly down. Personally I would wait for a trend change before I took a long position. You may miss the early part of a move but its the safer option.

Agreed. May miss the turning point but can still catch it on its trend upwards.

Someone above said it looks like selling pressure is reducing. This always happens in a product that has been smashed. Selling pressure dies off, price stabilises trades in a range for a while and then often takes another leg down. Whether it settles here and then turns back off seems unlikely without some sort of catalyst to help it bounce back.