Hi guys,
I know we have all noticed the lack of volatility, but a few facts to back it up:
I have monitored the daily ranges (and averaged them on a rolling six month basis) since 1999, and the Yen, Cable, Swissy and Loonie are all at historical lows in terms of that six month average. The Euro is 16% from the historical low to its historical high, and the Aussie is at 23% on the same measure.
(By the way, if you take the latest six month average daily range and divide it by the spread on each of the six majors (plus brokerage if you use an ECN), it gives you a proxy ratio for which pair is the best to scalp with. It still supports the Euro in this regard, by quite a margin.)
Secondly, I also record the monthly volume announcements from ICAP, and FX volumes traded dropped by 29.4% for the year (volumes dropped 37.3% in 2009, but recovered by 13.2% and 4.6% in 2010 and 2011 respectively). ICAP's volumes are almost half what they were in its peak year, 2008. It is tough out there.
All this doesn't help us select winning trades, but does give us some evidence of how tough market conditions are out there. In my opinion, if we can make a fist if scalping in these conditions, it will be a breeze when it eventually normalises a little.
Like you guys, I found Monday's European session a bit tough, particularly for the first day of a new year with all the positive vibes and expectations. I didn't take one trade. Best of luck to all your "Volmanites" for a better year ahead. "May the odds be ever in your favor".
Cheers, Jeremy